Tech Giants

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Darn good earnings from the big tech giants after the bell have not received their typically very bullish response as election and rising infection rates across the county weigh on investor’s minds.  Futures markets are trying to rally off the overnight lows this morning, but there is a palpable uncertainty as we head into the weekend.  Technically speaking, the indexes are in a short-term oversold condition, but it may not be easy to inspire a bullish defense of these price levels.  Continue to expect substantial price volatility driven by news events.

Asian markets closed in the red across the board overnight, with APPL suppliers selling off strongly in reaction to the iPhone sales decline.  European markets trade around the flat-line this morning as they grapple with new virus related lockdowns and uncertain outcome of the U.S. elections.  Facing just over 100 earrings reports and a reading on Personal Income futures, markets are trying to rally off of overnight lows but at this time point to a gap down open.  Plan your risk carefully, heading into the uncertainty of the weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We get a little break on earnings reports this Friday, with just over 100 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include CVX, ABBV, MO, BAH, CHTR, CL, FTS, GT, HON, LHX, MMP, NWL, NVO, PSX, PBI, RUTH, SJR, USS, WPC, & WY.

News and Technicals’

Although the big techs reported strong earnings after the bell yesterday, it appears it was not enough to overcome election and virus uncertainty.  Euro Zone topped GDP forecasts for the 3rd quarter, but new lockdowns in France and Germany have raised double-dip recession worries.  With the presidential election in its final days and polling numbers beginning to tighten, we should continue to expect significant price volatility as the market tries to price the possible outcome.  We can see this uncertainty in the treasury yields as they continue to slide south this morning. 

Technically speaking, the small relief rally we experienced yesterday was nice but fell significantly short of boosting bullish confidence.  Futures markets trading in the red all night but this morning lifting slightly off the overnight lows.  Keep an eye on the DIA 200-day average.  If the bulls defend this vital support, perhaps the process of repairing the technical damage in the charts can begin.  However, if the bears pile on heading into the weekend, breaking this level, the DIA could drag the other indexes lower and threatening a test of their 200-day averages.  With so much swirling uncertainty, it would not be a surprise if investors cut risk heading into the weekend, so stay focused and protect your capital.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Data Deluge

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Data Deluge

After the worst day of selling since June, the market faces a data deluge with several tech giants rounding out the day after the bell.  Should they report well, may finally get some relief heading into the weekend.  Should they disappoint or guide lower like MSFT, Friday could be a painful day heading into the uncertainty of the weekend.  With infection rates surging over 80,000 yesterday here in the U.S. and news that France and Germany are going into nationwide lockdowns, fear of a double-dip recession is growing fast.  Plan your risk carefully!

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight in reaction to the Wall Street Plunge.  European markets are choppy this morning, hovering around the flatline with an ECB decision in focus.  Ahead of a massive day of earnings and economic data, U.S. futures are trying to hold on to some positive numbers.  Hold on tight and prepare for another day of challenging news-driven volatility.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Thursday is the biggest day on the earnings calendar this week, with more than 250 companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, FB, FLWX, AOS, ANN, ATVI, AMT, BUD, APO, CAR, BAX, BWA, CAKE, CHD, CMCSA, COP, CS, DVA, DVN, DLR, DNKN, FTNT, GLPI, LMUN, IP, K, KDP, KHC, KTOS, LPSN, LTC, MTX, MPW, MGM, TAP, NOK, OHI, OSTK, PENN, PCG, RL, RDS.A, SNY, SHAK, SHOP, SO, SPOT, SBUX, STNE, TROW, TPR, TWTR, X, VRTX, WU, WWE, XYL, YU< & ZEN.

News & Technicals’

After the biggest day of selloff since June, U.S. Futures point to a modest bounce this morning.  Today will be a massive day of data with our most important day of earrings reports since the beginning of the 4th quarter earnings season.  The big tech market-moving reports AMZN, AAPL, FB & GOOGL occur after the bell, which means anything is possible Friday morning, so plan your risk carefully heading into the close.  Treasury yields are moving slightly lower this morning ahead of the 3rd quarter GDP economic growth figures at 8:30 AM Eastern.  If that’s not enough data to digest, we will also get the latest reading on the weekly Jobless Claims.  Concerns continue to grow for the possibility of a double-dip recession, and France and Germany initiate nationwide lockdowns to combat surging infection rates.  Daily infection number topped 80,000 here in the U.S. yesterday.  With just 5-days to the Presidential election, the market uncertainty as to what comes next as the index chart technical damage grows.  If the big tech firms perform well this afternoon, the market could get a little relief.  However, if any of them fall short of spectacular results such as MSFT, the path into the weekend could be lead by the bears. 

With the DIA now so close to its 200-day average, it would seem a test of that level is very likely in the days ahead.  Of course, everything could quickly reverse if a stimulus deal is agreed upon, but the evidence is now pointing to 2021 for that to occur.  Stay focused and flexible, and always remember that cash is a position often underutilized in such troubled times.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Technical Damage Increasing

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Technical Damage

The bulls worked hard to defend the 50-day average of the QQQ yesterday, even as the bears added technical damage to the DIA and SPY charts yesterday.  I think there was a significant hopefulness that MSFT would produce an earnings report to support this effort, but with the company offering up weak revenue guidance, hope quickly faded.  Factor in more stimulus delay’s rising infection rates as well as political uncertainty, and it’s no surprise that the bears are gaining ground. 

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight as concerns of economic impacts continue to grow with rising infection rates.  European markets grappling with all the uncertainties trade sharply lower this morning.  U.S. Futures ahead of a big day of earnings and economic data point to a punishing gap down, adding significant technical damage to the index charts.  Hang on; it could be a very volatile day!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The earnings reports ramp up this Wednesday with more than 100 verified companies stepping up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include AEM, AMGN, NLY, ANTM, BX, BA, BOOT, BSX, EAT, CHDN, DB, DRE, EBAY, EPD, EQIX, ESS, ETSY, FSLY, FCAU, F, GRMN, GD, GE, GILD, GSK, GRUB, HES, LVGO, MAS, MA, NDLS, NSC, ORLY, PINS, R, SIX, RGR, SPWR, TDOC, TUP, UPS, V, WELL, WDC, WH, & TUMC.

News & Technicals’

Uncertainty settled the market into a choppy trading range most of yesterday, with bears ultimately gaining the edge by the close of the day.  After the bell, MSFT reported better than expected but guided revenue lower, adding some selling pressure in aftermarket trading.  It could be a rough day for some tech giants as FB, GOOG, and TWTR CEOs get grilled by a Senate committee.  They hope to convince the Senate not to change liability laws that currently allow social media site protections that mainstream media outlets don’t enjoy.  Should the laws change, it could forever change the social media industry.  The delays continue to pile up on the stimulus front, with some now suggesting a deal may not happen until early 2021.  Combine that with another big day of reported infections and rising deaths, and markets worldwide feel the pressure this morning. 

Yesterday’s bearish follow-through day of selling added significant technical damage to the DIA and SPY charts.  The QQQ managed a weak bounce off its 50-day average but with the market pointing to a nasty overnight reversal that will drop the index below this critical technical level.  Facing a big round of earnings reports, International Trade and Petroleum numbers volatility will remain high, and I suspect that will continue through the election and possibly beyond.  One possible bright spot is that with this morning’s gap down, the T2122 will show a short-term oversold condition.  That said, it may be difficult for bulls to find inspiration amid all the economic and political uncertainty.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Psychological support

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Rising infection rates and concerns of more economic impacts, brought out the bears yesterday, breaking the psychological support of the 50-day average in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  Although the market seems certain government stimulus will eventually happen, Congress’s inability to reach a deal before the election puts tremendous pressure on earnings performance.  Will earnings be enough amid so much future uncertainty?

Asian markets traded mixed but mostly lower overnight.  European markets trade cautiously mixed this morning as the monitor earnings and the surging virus numbers.  Here in the U.S, ahead of a big day of earnings and economic news, the bulls are trying to put on a brave face pointing to a gap up open that may prove to recover the 50-day average in the SPY and QQQ.  Expect another day of news-driven price volatility.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have more than 90 companies reporting as 4th quarter earnings ramp up on the Tuesday earnings calendar.  Notable reports include, MSFT, MMM, AMD, AFL, AKAM, SAN, BP, CAT, CNC, CYH, GLW, CROX, DENN, ECL, LLY, FEYE, FSLR, BEN, HOG, IVZ, JBLU, LH, MKTX, MRK, NVS, RTX, QSR, SPGI, SHW, SSTK, SWK, & XRX.

News & Technicals’

Rising virus infections and no sign of stimulus from Congress brought out the bears yesterday, creating significant technical damage to the index charts.  Today we have a big round of earnings reports that include market movers such as MSFT, AMD, and CAT.  Still, as infection rates hit new records, the uncertainty may continue to weigh heavily even if earnings results come in bullishly.  The WHO yesterday said gaining control of this new virus surge may require significant sacrifice, and hinting more restrictions may be on the horizon.  U.S. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning as market participants are increasingly concerned about the viral upsurge and its potential economic impacts.  The Senate confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court yesterday and blocked an attempt to extend the voting deadline in Wisconsin, a central battleground state in the presidential election. 

With the DIA, SPY, and QQQ all closing the day below their 50-day averages, the index charts’ technical damage is starting to become a significant concern.  However, as earrings roll out this morning, the bulls are trying to put on a brave face pointing to a gap up open that may suggest a defense of this critical psychological level on the SPY and QQQ this morning.  The question to be answered, can earrings overcome the concerns and the possible economic impacts of COVID in the absence of governmental stimulus?  One thing we can count on is that price volatility and sensitivity to news will continue to challenge even the most adept traders trying to navigate the uncertain path forward.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Perfect Storm of Market Uncertainty

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Perfect Storm of Market Uncertainty

Could this be the perfect storm of market uncertainty? Election, new record infection rates, an earnings deluge, and a big week of economic data lining up to provide the potential for incredible price volatility.  An environment best suited for very adept day traders that quickly react to morning gaps, whipsaw, and news-driven intra-day reversals.  All other traders will find it difficult to impossible trade with an edge as the market reacts.  Consider the risk carefully, and always remember protecting your capital is one of a trader’s primary jobs.

Asian markets traded mixed overnight as virus infections surge, and oil prices fall.  European markets trade in the red this morning, with the DAX down more than 2%.  U.S. futures point to a nasty gap down at the open ahead of earnings data and the latest reading on New Home Sales.  Prepare for a wild week of uncertainty.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 30 verified companies stepping up to report quarterly results.  Notable reports include AGNC, ACC, BYD, CAJ, CINF, FFIV, HAS, NOV, OMF, PKG, & TWLO.

News & Technicals

With the election just one week away and a severe rise in pandemic infections, U.S. futures reflect the incredible uncertainty.  With infection rates hitting a new record high, hospitalizations are rapidly increasing, and the death rates rise once again, determining any company’s market value amid all the impacts is near to impossible.  That said, traders should expect wild price volatility to continue with extreme sensitivity to the news cycle.  One bright light is the hope for a vaccine to combat the virus that could be available by early December but for small businesses, just barely holding that is little solace.  Current market conditions favor the experienced day trader, and swing traders will find it very difficult to trade with an edge.  Remember that just because the market is open does not mean you have to risk your hard-earned capital.  One of the trader’s primary jobs, forgotten during uncertain markets, is to protect your money.  Keep that in mind as you plan your risk forward.

Besides the election and pandemic, the market faces an earnings deluge and a big week of market-moving economic reports pouring rocket fuel to potential volatility.  Expect large moring gaps, news-driven whipsaws, and intra-day reversals as the market tries to price such incredible uncertainty.  Of course, we can’t forget the possibility that Congress could at any time announce a stimulus package.  Plan your risk wisely.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Big Day of Earnings

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Big Day of Earnings

Today we face a big day of earnings news that has been a mixed bag of results so far this quarter.  Couple that with the uncertainty of stimulus, rising virus impacts, election meddling by Iran, and Russia expect extreme sensitivity to the news cycle and the significant price volatility to continue.  The DIA, SPY, and QQQ are quickly approaching their 50-day averages, and one has to wonder if they can hold as support without a stimulus deal.  If we head into the weekend still waiting on a deal, don’t be too surprised to see the bears become more aggressive. 

Happy Thursday!

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight as the IMF downgrades economic growth forecasts amid rapidly rising infection rates worldwide.  European markets are flat this morning as they continue to monitor U.S. stimulus talks and earnings results.  U.S. futures point to a slightly bearish open at this time, but with a big day of earrings and Jobless Claims numbers, anything is possible by the open.  Plan your risk carefully and be prepared for news-driven whipsaws and full reversals.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have our busiest day of the week on the Thursday earnings calendar, with 80 verified quarterly reports.  Notable reports include ALK, AB, AAL, AEP, T, BJRI, SAM, CTXS, KO, DOW, EHTH, FITB, FCX, GPC, HBAN, INTC, KMB, LLNW, MTB, MAT, NOC, NUE, PBCT, PHM, DGX, RHI, STX, SIRI, LUV, TSCO, UNP, VLO, VRSN, GWW, & WST.

News & Technicals’

Wednesday was another day of struggle as the market waits for a decision on stimulus negotiations.  The bulls controlled the positive morning gaps that quickly ran out of steam allowing the bears access and leaving behind tremendous uncertainty in the candle patterns.  With the DOW, SPY, and QQQ drawing near their 50-day averages, a test of this key technical levels seems likely unless news of a stimulus deal occurs soon.  Although there is a palpable uncertainty in the market, the index charts’ technical damage is minimal, with lower highs as the primary concern.  However, that damage could become critical if the 50-day moving averages are unable to hold as support.  Earnings thus far have shown a mixed bag of results, and with today being the biggest round of reports so far this season, we should expect an extra dose of price volatility as a result.  As the election draws near, the FBI says both Iran and Russia have obtained U.S. voter registration data to influence the outcome.  A cybersecurity firm confirmed that a hacker is trying to sell info on 148 million U.S. voters.  Despite the issues, please get out and vote!  The oil industry is now warning of significant layoffs in the coming weeks as rising virus infection rates substantially impact the sector.  I can only imagine the damage and helplessness business must feel as the infection and death rate numbers increase and the worry of more restrictions on the horizon. 

Overnight futures were quite bearish, but this morning they have bounced off the lows, trying to put on a brave face ahead of a slew of earnings and economic news that includes the latest reading on Jobless Claims.  With so much uncertainty swirling about, expect a considerable price sensitivity to stimulus and virus news.  If there is still no deal as we head into the weekend, I would not be surprised to see the bears become more aggressive.  Plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Will They or Won’t They Agree

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Will They or Won't They Agree

Will they or won’t they agree on a stimulus deal remains the big question of the day?  Emotions are high on the subject that could have dramatic effects on the short-term market direction.  If Pelosi and the White House finally agree, there is still the uncertainty if the Senate has the votes to pass a spending plan over 2 Trillion.  That said, news of a deal expect the bulls to celebrate.  A failure to reach an agreement and expect a market temper tantrum, creating technical damage in the index charts.  Hold on for another uncertain day as we wait.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight, but European markets trade in the red across the board this morning.  US Futures point to flat open as we wait on stimulus news, earnings, and economic data.  Expect volatility and remain focused and flexible as anything is possible.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have 35 verified companies stepping up to report quarterly results.  Notable reports include TSLA, ABT, AN, BKR, BIIB, CMG, CCI, CSX, DFS, EW, DFX, GL, KEY, KMI, LRCX, LVS, LAD, MANU, NDAQ, NEE, SUI, TMO, VX, WHR, & WGO.

News & Technicals’

Apparently, the Pelosi imposed deadline has passed and was nothing more than a negotiation tactic as talks continue today. Yesterdays’ price action reflected the high market emotion chopping rather violently as hope rose and fell throughout the day.  The good news is we do not have to deal with a considerable gap this morning but, we will have to prepare for another day of uncertainty with high volatility on a deal or no deal news event.  After the bell, NFLX disappointed investors by missing earnings estimates.  Shares of the streaming behemoth indicate more than a 25 dollar per share drop at today open.  According to reports, next week’s GDP report will likely show record-breaking economic growth if estimates are correct.  Across the pond, the top Brexit negotiator says that a trade deal is now in reach, boosting the British pound overnight.  That could have ripple effects in the currency markets today, lowering the US Dollar and proving the energy for Gold to break above price resistance. 

Technically speaking, the bulls have defended critical price supports in the index charts, but the palpable uncertainty has them teetering on the edge.  A lot is riding on the stimulus deal’s outcome, and traders should prepare for a substantial and volatile price move as news spin on the subject tugs on market emotion.  The bulls will likely celebrate with a strong rally should they hammer out a deal, but we should also prepare for a market temper tantrum and a bear attack should they fail.  Keep an eye on the news and stay focused on price action as we wait.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Pop and Drop

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Pop and Drop

Yesterday’s pop and drop price action left behind some bearish candle patterns but fell short of creating technical damage in the index charts.  While that’s true, the damage to trading accounts being chopped up in the politically created volatility was likely substantial.  Unfortunately, as we wait on stimulus negotiations, more whipsaws and reversals are likely.  If you love to gamble on a political outcome, then this market is a dream come true.  Place your bets the marble is rolling, and in the next 24 hours, we will find out if the outcome is red or black.

Overnight Asian markets were mixed as China keep lending rates unchanged.  European markets trade mixed this morning as well, as they monitor the growing virus concerns and stimulus hopes.  US futures, on the other hand, once again point to a significant gap up open ahead of earnings, economic data, and the quickly approaching Pelosi deadline for stimulus. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have 44 verified companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include PG, NFLX, ACI, AMX, CNI, CP, CIT, CMA, DOV, IBKR, IQV, IRBT, LOGI, MAN, NAVI, PNR, PM, PLC, RF, SNAP SYF, THC, TXN, TRV, & USB.

News and Technicals’

Yesterday’s nasty pop and drop reversal left behind some concerning candle patterns, but with news, progress on the stimulus, futures point to a bounce.  In other words, more of the same news-driven political spin volatility for a very uncertain market.  The Pelosi imposed deadline to get a bill passed before the election is upon us.  The result of the negotiations is likely to have dramatic market consequences over the next 24 hours.  If the news occurs during the market day, quick traders may be able to take advantage of the move.  However, should the story come out after the close, expect a significant gap in either direction.  Guess right, and you could be a big winner!  Guess wrong, and money could quickly disappear from your accounts.  No available trading edge; place your bets on the roulette wheel and hope your gamble pays off.  I can’t speak for you, but I didn’t become a technical analyst to gamble on a coin flip.  Rapidly rising virus cases also weigh heavily on investors’ minds, with 37 states reporting increased hospitalizations that seem likely to accelerate in the coming weeks.  The economic impacts continue to mount as some states ramp up restrictions in response.

On the technical front, the indexes printed bearish candle patterns yesterday, confirming lower highs and adding some overhead resistance.  That said, there was no significant technical damage created, and we all know another reversal is possible depending on the political news.  What happens next is anyone’s guess, but once again, I will caution you about the dangers of chaising a morning gap with so much uncertainty ahead.  Get ready; this wild ride is far from over.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Wild-eyed Speculation

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As coronavirus numbers surge, wild-eyed speculation of stimulus continues to drive indexes toward record territory.  With Speaker Pelosi issuing a 48-hour deadline to get a deal passed before the election, expect extreme price sensitivity on the stimulus news cycle.  Substantial whipsaws and full intraday reversals are possible as both sides of the aisle battle for position through the news.  There is a lot at stake as we push company valuations to perfection and beyond, even as our economy faces rising joblessness and new business impacts due to the rising infection rates.

Asian markets surged during the night as China reports their economy grew by 4.9%.  European markets are flat cautiously monitoring US Stimulus talks and Brexit uncertainty.  US Futures point to a Dow gap of nearly 200 points ahead of earnings, Jerome Powell comments, and the latest reading on the Housing Market Index.  Buckle up for another week of challenging price volatility.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 20 verified reports as the 4th quarter earnings volatility begins to ramp up.  Notable reports include ADC, FNB, HAL, IBM, LLI, PPG, STLD, & ZION.

News & Technicals’

Speaker Pelosi drew a line in the sand this weekend, giving the White House just 48 hours to reach an agreement on a stimulus package so that it can be passed before the election.  Reports suggest the Pelosi and Munchin will continue negotiations today, but it’s still unclear if the Senate has the willingness to give the deficit spending bill nearing a 2 trillion dollars.  China released numbers saying its economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter lifting Asian markets overnight.  Unfortunately, as coronavirus infections accelerate, new restrictions and lockdown measures increase the economic uncertainty looking forward.  Worldwide cases of the virus topped 40 million, with more than 90K new cases reported in the US over the weekend.  The IMF downgraded the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asian economic recovery, with oil prices expected to suffer next year due to virus-driven demand impacts.

That said, US Futures are surging this morning as hopefulness of a stimulus deal outweighs virus concerns.  The T2122 is once again suggesting that we are in an extremely overbought condition as wild-eyed speculation pushes the indexes toward record territory.  As we gap up once again in anticipation, remember to watch for the possibility of a pop and drop pattern.  Traders will have to stay on their toes as news sensitivity around stimulus could be extreme should negotiations fail.  With the VIX continuing to hold above 25 handles, anything is possible, so plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Whip it

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Gap it down, whip it hard, chopping up traders accounts in the process as politicians continue to kick around the stimulus football.  Almost lost in the background noise of this political silliness, joblessness is rising, and new virus infections top 60k in a single day.  Toss in earnings season, and we have the perfect climate for continued wild price volatility as an emotional market awaits the next news report to fuel the next whipsaw.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher amid rising virus fears.  European markets are currently rebounding from early losses now green across the board.  Recovering from overnight lows, the US Futures point to modest opening gains ahead of earnings and economic reports that include Retail Sales numbers.  What comes next is anyone’s guess.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we have 20 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include ALLY, BK, CFG, JBHT, KSU, SLB, STT, & VFC.

News & Technicals’

Stimulus uncertainty and rising infection concerns brought out the bears Thursday morning, punishing those holding long positions.  With news reports, the President was willing to increase his 1.8 Trillion offer spurred a rally to punish any short traders.  This morning, we hear that even though the White House is ready to support a bigger package, the Senate may not be willing to pass such a massive spending package.  Can we get off this political merry-go-round? Please!  While stimulus wrangling continues to whip the market around jobless claims, increased substantially, and new coronavirus infections topped 60,000 yesterday.   Stimulus or not, the economic damage to the economy is real and makes me wonder how much longer we can ignore its impacts. 

Though the rally back yesterday was substantial, it will only look like a knee jerk reaction unless the price action can follow-though breaking the short term downtrends and recovering lost price supports.  Continue to expect extreme market sensitivity to the Washington spin cycle and the growing headwinds of rising infection rates heading into this weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug