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Rick’s Trading Blog: August 21, 2026
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U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open this morning, but will it be enough to push through yesterday’s highs and reclaim the T-Line on the SPY and other major indices?
Yesterday’s close on SPY slipped below both the T-Line and our Trend Indicator, signaling that sellers remain in control. To confirm buyers have truly taken the reins, we need more than just pre-market green—we need to see price push back above the Trend Indicator and decisively reclaim the T-Line. While there are many ways to trade, our focus remains straightforward: follow the trend and trade price action within it.
Key Sectors: Transports & Semiconductors
- IYT (Transports): Remains bearish, trading below the 50-day moving average, the T-Line, and the Trend Indicator.
- SMH (Semiconductors): Also in a bearish posture below the T-Line, Trend Indicator, and the 50-day MA.
Macro & Geopolitics
Headline risks continue to weigh on market sentiment. Escalating tensions with Iran, sticky inflation, and growing concerns over the national debt are keeping traders on edge. There is no immediate resolution in sight for any of these headwinds, creating volatility that cuts both ways.
Market Internals
- VIX: Formed a bullish engulfing candle yesterday, closing above the T-Line and Trend Indicator at $16.01.
- T2108: Not an ideal close for the bulls, finishing yesterday around the 45% level.
- T2123: Closed in a bearish posture, with price sitting below both the T-Line and the Trend Indicator.
The Game Plan
Yes, futures are green this morning, but we need hard proof. Until price proves itself by closing above yesterday’s high and reclaiming the T-Line, any upside is just a bounce inside a cautious trend.
Be careful trying to pick bottoms or catch falling knives—both require heavy gloves. Stick to your trading rules and enter every position with a defined plan. Whether long or short setups present themselves, the playbook doesn’t change: let the market confirm the move, make smart entries, take profits into strength, and keep risk strictly controlled by cutting losses before they grow.
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Current Portfolio Status: WMT, SPCX, SKHY, AAPL
Recently closed; taking the Road to Wealth Account to 500K from $4000
PLTR $734.00 profit, NVO, $1114.00 gain, QQQ $450.00 gain, KLAR 25% gain, HIMS 25% gaim, HOOD 45% gain, INTC 35.4% gain, 1/2 INTC 22% gain, Made 2 SPY day trades 5 goals put away, SPY 21% gain, ALKS for 2 goals, IREN 26%, FIG 80% gain, FIG 80% gain, PLTR 53% gain, PTIR, 61% gain, SMCI 50% gain, IREN 44% gain, 1/2 SMCI 15% Gain, FIG 29% Gain, GEO 62% gain, KO 13% gain, NVDA 44% gain, AAPL 22% gain, TSLL 40% gain, CRML 27% gain, INTC 32% gain, NOK 58%, 2/3 CRML 27% gain, WMT 35% GAIN, IREN 23% gain, OKLO 32% gain, PTON 4% gain, Z 22% gain AAPL 50% gain, SOFI 50% gain, OKLO 40% gain, BABA 44% gain, HIMS 46.5% gain, ORCL 20.5%, 1/2 SOFI 17.5%, U 22% gain, ORCL 34.5% gain, MRVL 30% Gain, ARM 42% gain, Closed 1/2 NFLX 40% gain, 1/2 NOK 19.5% gain, NOK 28% gain, ACHC 12% gain
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