News from BA that the 737 may be back in the sky by January inspired the bulls to shake off the trade fears that began the day to close the DIA at a new record high close.  Relentlessly the bulls have pushed past bad news to move up and if that bad news eventually finds resolution the surges even higher.  This morning there is speculation the President will delay European tariffs by 6-months on Wednesday, lifting futures off of overnight lows.  Expect news-driven price action to continue with he Powell speech on Wednesday and the Impeachment hearing also scheduled to begin.

Asian markets recovered from early lows closing in the green despite trade concerns and Hong Kong unrest.  European are also green across the board this morning on hope of an auto tariff delay.  US Futures continue to fluctuate this morning with more than 300 earnings reports to digest.  That said, I expect a modest gap up at the open with the bulls still in control.

On the Calendar

On the Earnings Calendar, we have over 300 companies reporting today.  Notable reports include DHI, TWOU, ADT, AAP, ACM, CBS, BREW, DF, OSTK, ROK, SWKS, TLRY, TSN, and YY.

Action Plan

The bullishness of this market has been truly remarkable.  As issues continue to swirl around trade and Hong Kong, the bulls relentlessly surge forward.  Although yesterday’s rally was not broad-based, a new record high closing high in the DIA was inked mostly on the back of BA news.  With an upcoming speech by the President on Wednesday with speculation that he is going to dealy European tariffs for 6-months markets this morning a once again surging higher.  Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak on Wednesday.

All the while, the Presidential impeachment hearings will begin, and we can count on a barge of political rhetoric and spin to captivate the public and potentially move the market.  News-driven price action can be challenging to trade, but it could also turn out to be a non-event if the bulls remain as relentless as they have been over the last month of trading.  No matter what happens, as traders, it’s our job to focus on the price action and follow the clues they present without bias or prediction.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Closing at new record highs on Friday, the bears have decided they have something to say this morning trying to claw back a good portion of the move.  The good news is with the banks closed in honor of Veterans Day, the bears may find it difficult to find enough energy to create much technical damage.  Although it’s always disappointing to see a weekend reverse a strong close of the previous week, the volume is likely to be light and price action choppy due to the holiday.

Asian markets closed the day seeing only red with trade tensions growing over the weekend, and Hong Kong protests flare up once again.  European markets are also bearish this morning as they watch trade developments, and the US Futures are following the same path the Dow pointing to a triple point gap down this morning. 

On the Calendar

There are no events on the Economic Calendar with the banks closed due to Veterans Day.

We have over 140 companies reporting earnings results today.  Notable reports include FOLD, FNV, TME, and TERP.

Action Plan

Having taken a few days off, I feel a bit out of the sorts this morning trying to catch up, so this blog post will well be short.  Although the DIA, SPY, and QQQ closed at a new record high on Friday it was interesting to note that T2122 slightly declined.   That often suggests the rally was not broad-based with just key stocks rising to finish the week strong.

This morning futures are decidedly bearish looking to take back a sizeable portion of Friday’s rally at the open.  However, with the banks closed for Veterans Day, this pullback may not create any serious technical damage.  In fact, after the morning rush expect price action to become light and choppy.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Though the indexes have inked new records, the price action indicates the bull may be a bit winded after such a big bullish run.  A little consolidation or slight pullback to test new supports and allowing time for the key averages to catch up could be just what it needs to set up the next leg higher.  There may be some concern as well; the Phase 1 trade deal is already priced into the market before we even know what it does or does not include.  Between Wednesday and Friday, we have more than 1000 earnings reports for the market to digest as well, so traders should remain flexible and focused on price action clues.

Asian markets traded cautiously as they closely watch the Phase 1 trade developments.  European markets are also timid this morning trading flat to slightly bullish this morning.  US Futures were flat to slightly bearish most are again getting the morning pump up ahead of a big round of earnings that are now pointing to a modest gap up open.  Let’s hope today we can see some follow-through rather than the sideways chop after the institutional gap we’ve experienced in the last 2-days.

On the Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have over 430 companies’ results.  Notable reports include UPWK, ALB, UHAL, ANGI, BIDU, GOLD, BLMN, CRCM, CARS, CVNA, FUN, CTL, COTY, CVS, ELF, ET, EOG, EXPE, STAY, FISV, FIT, FLO, FOSL, GLUU, GDDY, TWNK, HUM, IAC, IQ, KGC, LL, MRO, NYT, ODP, PAAS, PZZA, PRGO, QCOM, RCII, SMG, SQ, TRIP, VVV, VER, WEN, & WLH.

Action Plan

Ahead of a very big day of earnings, futures are taking a wait and see approach.  Most of the evening, they were flat to slightly lower have been slowly creeping up as we wait for results.  After inking new record highs in the Dow yesterday, perhaps the futures are indicating we need a rest to confirm new levels of support and allow the key averages time to close the distance with the price.   Pensiveness could also be due to the Phase 1 trade deal and concerns that it’s already completely priced into the market.

Technically speaking, the bulls remain in control, but the averages do appear to be a little too far ahead of their 50-day averages.  Should a slight pullback or consolidation occur, I think that could be very bullish for the market as long as the new support levels prove strong enough to hold.  With more than 1000 earnings reports between today and the end of the week, anything is possible, but so far this earnings session, the results favor the bulls. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Asian markets closed bullish across the board following the lead of US markets after setting new records.  European markets are modestly bullish across the board as the monitor US/China trade developments closely.  US Futures currently point to a Dow gap up of nearly 75 points ahead of a huge day of earnings reports. 

New record after new record on a rally very few expected, but it looks as if the bulls want to stretch even further this morning on high hopes of the Phase 1 deal.  Yesterday was rather frustrating, technically producing a pop and drop pattern that chopped in a very small range after the big gap up. Ahead of a big day of earnings and economic reports futures markets once again point to a gap open that we will have to again watch for proof of follow-through buying.  Guard yourself against chasing into the gap as profit-taking could begin at any time.

On the Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have over 360 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include PTON, AGN, AINV, ARNC, BDX, CZR, CWH, CNK, DVA, DVN, EMR, HST, HUBS, LAMR, LC, LPX, MNK, MTCH, MYL, NEM, PBI, PAA, PPL, RRGB, REGN, SSTK, TPR, TRVG, TRUP, VOYA, & WW.

Action Plan

Yesterday was a bit frustrating with a big institutional gap that found no follow-through chopping in a very small range the entire day.  Of course, we set new records in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ, and it looks as if we could do the same today with another gap up open indicated in the futures.  The T2122 indicator settled after the morning gap, which gives a bit more up-side room if the bulls continue to find inspiration.

With a big day of earnings reports and the International Trade in goods report at 8:30 AM, anything is possible, but with high hopes of a Phase 1 trade deal the bulls appear relentless in their run higher.  As the melt-up continues, stay focused on price watching for clues of profit-taking beginning.  It’s very easy in such a bullish environment to get caught up in the euphoria and over-trade so late in the rally.  Remember, gap up opens can be a great time to take some profits and be careful not to chase stocks that have already run multiple days higher.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Better than expected jobs numbers, solid earnings, strong consumer spending, and an accommodative FOMC continues to melt-up the indexes this morning.  Tariffs and trade seem to no longer be of concern as the bulls continue to stretch the indexes higher breaking records along the way.  However, I want to offer up a word of caution as we gap to new highs this morning.  The SPY and QQQ are stretched a long way from their 50-day averages and remember that sometimes gap up opens produce pop and drop patterns.  Be careful not to chase, keeping in mind gap up opens is a great time to take some profits.

Overnight Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher on optimism of a huge Asian Pacific trade deal expected in 2020.  European markets are bullish across the board this morning on renewed trade optimism, and the US Futures are in full-on beast mode ahead of earnings and economic reports.  Currently the Dow is expected to gap more than 125 points breaking above price resistance to make a new record high at the open.

On the Calendar

We have a massive week of earnings reports this week, with more than 1600 companies reporting.  We get started with more than 200 reports today.  Notable reports include UBER, AAN, AWR, APLE, WTR, BHC, CC, CDE, ED, RACE, FE, FRPT, GCI, GRPN, HTZ, MAR, MOS, PXD, PBPB, PRU, O, SHAK, S, SYY, & UAA.

Action Plan

The bulls are in beast mode this morning, and the DIA is likely to join its compadres the SPY and QQQ with a new record breakout as long as it doesn’t stumble before the open.  As always I will be watching the open closely, but I will not chase the move with the fear of missing out.  Instead, I will focus on the price action making sure buyers will show up to support the gap.  Big gap up opens can often produce the dreaded pop and drop pattern, so waiting a few minutes won’t hurt anything and may, in fact, provide an opportunity to take some profits.  Gaps are gifts!

Friday’s big rally pushed the T2122 indicator near the bearish reversal zone, and this morning’s gap could stretch the indexes right to the top.  One thing that gives me a little pause this morning is that BA is looking to gap up even-through weekend news suggests there could be further delays getting the 737 Max back in the air.  However, if earning’s continue to roll in strong and the Factory Orders number is good, we could rip higher squeezing out any remaining short-hands.  We have had much better earnings than the market expected with strong consumer buying, and an accommodative FOMC the melt-up could easily continue to stretch the indexes higher.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Although it was disappointing to see the bearish price action yesterday, the end of day rally indicated the bulls are still in control as price supports proved strong.  Of course earnings will play a big role this morning; the majority of the attention of the market will likely turn to the big economic reports to find inspiration.  We have had a very event-driven but with more than 1600 companies expected to report next week there will no time to take a break.  Plan your risk into the weekend accordingly.

During the night, Asian markets close their trading week mixed but mostly higher after their government expressed long-term trade concerns.  However, European markets see modest gains across the board this morning.  US Futures are also showing bullishness this morning, pointing to a modest gap up ahead of the Employment Situation number and earnings results.  Keep a close eye on the ISM Mfg. number at 10 AM Eastern as it may prove to be the biggest market-moving report of the day.

On the Calendar

We get a little break on the Friday Earnings Calendar with just over 100 companies reporting.  Notable reports include ABBV, BABA, LNG, CVX, D, XOM, LYB, NWL, STX, X, and WPC.

Action Plan

Yesterday’s price action was disappointing after China’s unfavorable comments regarding trade.  However, a late-day rally saved the index charts from technical damage, and the bulls remain in control.  Although we have a significant day of earnings, the major focus will be in the Employment Situation report and the ISM MFG number that may prove to be the biggest market-moving numbers of the day. 

As we head into the uncertainty of another weekend, remember to take some profits.  Although we seem to have kicked the Phase 1 trade deal and Brexit down the road and have the FOMC behind us, we can’t become complacent in this very news-driven market.  With all the major indexes holding support and well above their 50-day averages, I remain bullish though somewhat cautious as prices work to prove support.  Remember, we have a very big week of earnings, with more than 1600 companies expected to report, so rest up this weekend the coming week will require us to be at our best.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Lower rates and strong earnings reports inspire the bulls to reach out to new record highs in the SPY.  Not only that, but both the SPY and QQQ successfully tested and held the support level of the recent breakout.  Well done, bulls!  Unfortunately, trade war uncertainty once again raised its ugly head during the night, tempering the bullish sentiment as we head toward today’s open that chalked full of enough earnings and economic calendar events to keep everyone guessing, what comes next?

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher after reporting their 6^th straight manufacturing decline.  European markets see only red this morning with rising doubts about the trade war deal.  US Futures have slightly improved this morning from overnight lows but continue to point to a modestly bearish open due to trade war concerns.  With the Employment Situation and ISM number on Friday, we should not be surprised to see a choppy day of price action as we wait.

On the Calendar

The Thursday earnings calendar is a busy one, with nearly 340 companies expected to report results.  Notable reports include MO, AMCX, AMT, ADM, CAR, AVP, BLL, APRN, BMY, CHD, CI, CLX, COR, DNKN, DD, EL, EXC, FCAU, FTNT, GLPI, HFC, IP, IRM, KHC, MELI, NNN, RMAX, SNY, SIRI, STOR, TRI, W, WU, WWE, XYL, and YETI.

Action Plan

We have and interesting set of circumstances facing the market this morning.  A rate cut that the market wanted, good earnings reports yesterday, and another big day of them today, but the futures are reacting negatively to downbeat comments on trade from China.  China was in the news for a second time last night, stating their manufacturing activity shrank for the 6^th straight month due to trade war pressures.  Congress is expected to vote today on the rules they will follow in the impeachment process, which is likely to be a distracting and firey side show of political gamesmanship.

Technically speaking, yesterdays price action turned out to be very bullish with the SPY and QQQ testing and proving to hold breakout support.  Although the DIA still has a lot of work to do before it reaches new record highs, the bulls showed strength holding the downtrend breakout as support after a quick test.  Trade war worries add another wrinkle in an already busy day full of earnings events and possible market-moving economic reports.  If that’s not enough to keep the market guessing, remember, we still have the Employment Situation, and the ISM reports on Friday morning.  Waiting on those could produce some choppy price action after the morning rush as we wait.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Today the market faces a literal deluge of events.  Nearly 380 companies report earnings, including big tech market-movers like AAPL & FB after the bell today.  At 8:30 AM Eastern, we get the latest reading on the GDP that the consensus estimate suggests will come in below 2 percent.  Then at 2:00 PM, the FOMC rate decision that may excite or disappoint the market, creating significant price volatility.  Swing and position traders will have tough decisions to make while quick and experienced day traders will likely have the upper hand.  Anything is possible, so think carefully about how you approach the day.

Asian markets, with the uncertainty of the Fed rate decision, looming closed the day down across the board.  European markets trade cautiously mixed but mostly lower this morning ahead of the big data dump.  US Futures that were down most the night are now hovering near the flat line ahead of the deluge of events.  There could be some excitement during the morning rush but don’t be surprised if the market action becomes light and choppy waiting on the FOMC decision.  After that, it’s anyone guess!

On the Calendar

Today we have the biggest round of earnings reports so far this season with nearly 380 companies fessing up to their results.  Notable earnings include AAPL, FB, AKS, AWK, APA, ARCC, ADP, BKR, EAT, BG, CME, CTCH, CROX, DIN, ETR, EWIX, ETSY, GRMN, GE, HCP, HES, H, LM, TREE, LYFT, MANT, MCK, MET, MGM, TAP, MYL, RCL, SPG, SNE, SO, S, SFM, STAG, SBUX, SU, SPWR, SKT, TDOC, TUP, TWLO, VIAV, WDC, WMB, WING, YUM, & ZNGA.

Action Plan

It’s always tough to know with to do on a day so chalked full of potentially market-moving events.  First, we have our biggest day of earnings reports so far this quarter with just short of 380 reports. Both AAPL and FB report after the bell today, which means anything is possible Thursday morning, making it a difficult decision on the risk held overnight.  Secondly, with a very big day on the economic calendar beginning with ADP numbers, the GDP report, Petroleum Status report, and then at 2:00 PM Eastern the FOMC decision on interest rates followed directly by the Chairman’s press conference.

Fed fund futures suggest a very high likelihood of a rate cut today, which of course, the market always loves.  The big question to be answered is will the FOMC hint of more possible cuts in the future or disappoint the market, suggesting they finished.  If so, might the market react negatively?  It’s anybody’s guess!  I would expect some volatility early in the morning session, but would not be at all surprised to see the market become very slow and choppy as we wait for the interest rate decision.  Futures were slightly bearish overnight but have recovered to suggest a flat open at the time of writing this report.  However, with so much data for the market to digest before the open, anything is possible, and we will have to stay on our toes and remain flexible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

The question of a new record high received an affirmative answer yesterday as both the SPY and QQQ finally broke through the stubborn resistance level.  However, before we can officially claim victory and sound the all-clear signal, they must now prove they can hold this new level as support.  Earnings disappointments after the bell yesterday have the US Futures looking a bit pensive this morning as we face more than 250 new reports today.  The bulls are clearly in control but stay flexible and focused on price action because sentiment can change with such a barrage of data.   

Overnight, Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower, and the European markets this morning currently are flat to mostly lower as they monitor earnings and the pending UK Brexit related election.  US Futures trade mixed this morning with Dow pointing to bearish open that seems to be getting heavier as the morning progress, but that could quickly change though out the morning depending on earning results. 

On the Calendar

Tuesday’s Economic Calendar indicates more than 250 companies will report results today.  Notable reports include AMD, ALL, AMGN, AOS, AN, BIDU, SAM, BP, CAKE, CB, COP, GLW, CMI, DENN, DLR, ECL, EA, EPR, EXR, FEYE, GM, GRUB, HCA, HLF, IR, K, KKR, LDOS, MA, MAT, MRK, MDLZ, PAYC, PFE, PSA, SPGI, SHOP, SYK, WH, XRX, YUMC, & EXN.

Action Plan

Yesterday the SPY and QQQ finally found the inspiration to break out while the DIA continues to struggle with price resistance.  Breaking out is only one step in the equation; now, they must prove it can hold the new lofty prices as support.  As we wait for the FOMC interest rate decision, we have another big day of earnings reports to digest as well as the Case-Shiller Report, Consumer Confidence, and Pending Home Sales.  Price volatility is likely during the early session, but it could significantly slow after the morning rush as we wait on the FOMC.

Technically Speaking, the Bulls are in control with all four of the major indexes holding above their 50-day averages.  However, with earnings misses after the bell such as GOOGL, the Futures seem a bit pensive this morning ahead of a fresh round of reports.  As I am writing this report the Futures are mixed with the Dow suggesting a slightly lower open.  That, of course, can quickly change for the better or worse as the morning earning reports roll out in quick succession.  T2122 suggests there is still room to move higher, although beginning to look a bit extended as the VIX tests a 12 handle. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A busy economic calendar and about 900 companies reporting earnings will give the market a fire hose of data to digest this week.  Wednesday afternoon, the FOMC is expected to cut the interest rate for the 3^rd time this year, and we’ll cap the week with the Employment Situation and ISM reports.  Indeed a very busy week as the market knocks on the door of record highs. 

Asian markets closed the day green across the board on US-China trade optimism.  European markets are mixed but mostly higher this morning as the EU grants an extension to January 31 for Brexit.  US Futures are bullish this morning and may create new record highs in SPY, and the QQQ at the open assuming earnings reports and the International Trade in Goods report don’t change the current sentiment.  Buckle up; it could be a wild ride this week!

On the Calendar

The Monday Earnings Calendar had just short of 140 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include AKAM. GOOGL, T, AVB, BYND, CTB, EPD, LEG, L, NXPI, ON, QSR, SPOT, TXRH, TMUS, RIG, VNO, WBA, and WELL.

Action Plan

We had a nice weekend where there were no additional uncertainties, and in fact had a few resolutions.  First, according to reports, some provisions of the Phase 1 trade agreement are coming together.  The report was very thin on details but enough to move the market substantially toward record highs.  The Yield curve that shook the market a few months ago is improving, and the FOMC is expected to lower the interest rate for the 3^rd time on Wednesday afternoon.  GM reached an agreement with striking workers, and the ISIS leader Baghdadi met his end this weekend improving the US relationship with Syria.

US Futures, suggest a bullish open that may print all-time highs in the SPY at the QQQ, at the time of writing this report.  Although the DIA is lagging behind, the bullish engulfing candle popping out of a consolidation rage on Friday suggests a break of the current downtrend is possible with the futures suggesting a gap up of about 70 points at the open.  Of course with a big round of earnings reports, this morning and the International Trade in Goods report at 8:30 AM Eastern anything is possible.  We have a very big week of economic data, so keep in mind price action could become very light and choppy as we wait.

Trade Wisely,

Doug