With a mixed bag of earnings results, the overall market continues to struggle with the overhead resistance of all-time highs.  After receiving another late-day rally yesterday, the bulls have the upper hand but lack the inspiration to push forward with confidence.  With a lighter Friday earnings calendar and the big disappointment report by AMZN, the bulls and bears seem equally matched as we head into the weekend.

Asian markets closed mixed with the uncertainties of trade and Brexit still hanging overhead.  European markets also trade mixed this morning due to the mixed bag of earnings results and a possible Brexit vote ahead.  US Futures currently appear to lack in energy this morning, dancing around the flat line ahead of fresh reports and a Consumer Sentiment report at 10 AM Eastern. 

On the Calendar

We have a lighter day on the Earnings Calendar this Friday, with just over 63 companies expected to report.  Notable reports include BUD, CHTR, GT, ITW, LEA, PSX, PSXP, VFC, VTR, VZ, WY, WETF, AND YNDX.

Action Plan

US markets struggled yesterday with the DIA under pressure ending the day with mixed results.  This morning US Futures this morning recovered from some overnight losses but also seem a bit confused hovering around the flat line.  Vice President Pence delivered an address with harsh words directed at China on trade and human rights practices.  He also delivered some scathing criticism of the actions of NKE and the NBA organization regarding the Hong Kong protesters.  Trade negotiators are scheduled to speak by phone next Friday.

With another late-day rally yesterday, the bull continues to hold a stronger hand and continues to focus on the all-time high resistance levels above that have proven to very challenging to breach.  While companies such as INTC and JNPR produced better than expected earnings results, AMZN delivered a big disappointment.  As we head into the weekend with such a mixed bag of earnings results, Friday trading has the potential to produce another choppy day of price action.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A sharp end of day rally greatly improved yesterday’s developing candle patterns that had spent most of the day choppy and leaning bearish.  However, at the close, the DIA and IWM remain in a bullish consolidation with the SPY leading the pack with a bullish piercing pattern and the QQQ not far behind.  It has been an odd earnings season, to say the least, but, thus far the results have provided just enough inspiration to keep in the bears at bay.  With a huge day of earnings and economic reports anything is possible, but as of now the bulls have a slight momentum advantage.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher, even as economic growth in South Korea continues to slow.  European markets see nothing but green this morning responding to earnings as Brexit uncertainty continues to swirl.  US Futures currently indicate a modestly bullish open this morning ahead of a slew of earnings results and several key economic reports.

On the Calendar

Today on the Earnings Calendar, we have the biggest day of reports since the 4^th quarter reports began.  Notable reports include MMM, AB, AMZN, AAL, AEP, AZN, COF, CERN, CINF, CTXS, CMCSA, CUBE, DECK, DOW, FE, FSLR, GILD, GNC, HSY, HBAN, ILMN, INTC, JNPR, KIM, LH, NOK, NOC, ONDK, RTN, RCL, LUV, SWK, TMUS, TROW, TWTR, VLO, VRSN, V, and AUY.

Action Plan

Today this very odd earnings season hits a full stride with more than 250 companies reporting.  We can expect significant volatility throughout the day and with big reports after the bell the possibility of a substantial gap Friday morning.  Although most of yesterday’s price action was not showing much bullishness an end of day rally as dark pool volume consolidated to the market, it created a late-day rally improving the technical look of the index charts. 

The SPY left behind a bullish piercing pattern finishing the day as the strongest chart with the QQQ not far behind.  The DIA managed to rally back enough in the last few minutes of the day to remain in a bullish consolidation pattern holding above important supports.  If the bulls happen to find inspiration in today’s earnings and economic reports, an attack on all-time highs is possible.  Should earnings disappoint, the DIA seems most likely to display the stress and could test it’s 50-day moving average.  However, earnings reports have provided just enough positive results that the bulls remain in control so the current momentum although light favors the bulls.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Yesterday push toward upward ended the day leaving behind some concerning technical patterns.  The Dow is beginning to show a possible lower high failure with disappointing reports from MCD, TRV, and CAT early this morning.  The SPY and QQQ left behind bearish engulfing candle patterns by the end of the day as it reacted to the uncertainty of Brexit and a big wave of reports today.  Although the price resistance above is proving to be quite challenging to breach, at least the indexes are still holding above their 50-day averages.

During the night, Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower as Brexit seeks another extension from the EU.  Currently, European markets are mixed but slightly lower overall with the more Brexit political roadblocks to clear.  US Futures are also currently mixed with the Dow and SP-500 suggesting a lower open but the NASDAQ trying hard to hold on to modest gains even as Mortgage Applications drop by 12%. 

On the Calendar

On the Hump Day Earnings Calendar we have a big day with more than 200 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include ABB, AEM, AMP, SNTM, ARI, AVY, BX, BA, BCOV, CP, CAT, CLF, EBAY, EW, LLY, EFX, FFIV, F, LLY, FXC, GD, GWW, HLT, IVZ, LRCX, MSFT, MHP, NDAQ, NSC, ORLY, OC, PYPL, RCI, ROL, SEIC, NOW, SAVE, TSLA, TMO, WM, WGO, and XLNX.

Action Plan

After failing to pass an expedited schedule to complete the Brexit agreement and extension of the October 31^st, deadline extending the uncertainty fo the outcome.  It’s anyone’s guess what happens next and how their decisions could affect the overall market.  Earnings have taken over the headlines, and progress on the Phase One trade agreement seems to have faded entirely from the news cycle and the mind of the market.  Disappointing earnings our of MCD and TRV yesterday and the early morning miss from CAT is becoming concerning considering the lower high the index has begun to display.  We are still waiting for the embattled BA to report this morning.

Technically speaking, we have some worrisome patterns developing on the index charts.  The Dow is showing a possible lower high,  the SPY, and the QQQ printed bearish engulfing patterns very near price resistance levels, and the IWM continues to struggle with downtrend resistance.  On the positive side, all the indexes remain above their respective 50-day averages, and perhaps this is merely a rest.  I think traders must remain flexible and be careful not to overcommit directionally. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Good morning everyone everyone. Due to a short term internet outage I didn’t have the time to write the full blog today. However we must stay focused on price action and expect the market will either be pushed or pulled by the big round of earnings today.

Notable earnings include CMG, ARCH, BIIB, BYD, CNC, DFS, FITB, HAS, IRBT, JBLU, KMB, LMT, MCD, NAVI, NEE, NVS, NUE, PG, PHM, RRC, RF, SHW, SIX, SKX, TXN, TRU, TRV, UTX, UPS & WHR.

We also have the potential market-moving Existing Home Sales numbers at 10:00 AM Eastern today. Consensus is expecting a slight decline.

You can watch the Morning Market Prep with the link below and I wish you all a great day everyone!

Though trade and Brexit issues continue to plague the market with uncertainty, this week’s ramp-up of 4^th quarter earnings will draw all the attention.  As we begin to hear results from industrial’s , multi-nationals, and big tech let’s hope they can follow the lead of the big banks producing earnings that support or bolster current prices.  Trouble at BA and JNJ will need some strong results out of companies such as CAT that reports this week to counterbalance the index.  As always, with earnings, anything is possible, so remain flexible and focused on price action for clues.

Asian markets closed the day cautiously green across the board amid Brexit uncertainties while European indexes shrug off concerns putting on a brave face with all indexes trading modestly bullish this morning.  US Futures ahead of earnings reports and a quiet economic calendar currently indicate a slightly bullish open having declined slightly from overnight highs.  Ready or not, the earnings ramp-up volatility begins.

On the Calendar

The Monday Earnings Calendar has over 60 companies expecting to report results today.  Notable reports include ACC, CE, TACO, ELS, HAL, LOGI, PETS, AMTD, & ZION.

Action Plan

Friday proved to be an interesting day of price action after learning that BA may have misled the FAA and that and that JNJ may have been selling baby power with trace amounts of asbestos.  With both companies included in the Dow average, the index had a very tough day falling 255 points by the close.  The Brexit uncertainty also likely played a hand in the reduction of risk as we headed into an expected vote.  Unfortunately, we now know that the Prime Minister was forced to ask for an extension and postponed the divorce deal vote.  Now we wait to find out if the EU officials will grant the extension with the deadline rapidly approaching. 

Looking over the technicals, the DIA took the brunt of the damage on Friday, but all in all, the indexes held above important price support levels and their 50-day averages.  Futures have softened slightly from overnight highs, but at the time of writing, this report suggests a modestly bullish open this morning.  With 4^th quarter earnings ramping up and several market-moving reports on the economic calendar with week price action volatility is likely, and anything is possible.  Let’s hope as industrials, and big tech begin to report they can follow the lead of the big banks with better than expected results.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Price action over the last few days has been quite choppy, but technically there may be a silver lining forming in the index charts.  As price continues to challenge overhead resistance a nice resting consolidation appears to be forming.  After all the wild price swings, a consolidation above 50-day averages allows the averages time to catch up, providing bullish support to prices.  Of course, political unrest and earnings could easily bring back the wild volatility, but for now I see this consolidation as productive and bullish.

During the night China reported their economy grew less than expected at 6 percent, closing Asian markets mixed but mostly lower.  European markets are trading very cautiously this morning ahead of crucial Brexit vote coming this weekend that, according to reports, may not have the support needed to be successful.  US Futures also indicate a flat and cautious open ahead of earnings reports and an uncertain weekend vote.

On the Calendar

On the Friday Earnings Calendar, we have 37 companies as we wrap of the first week of 4^th quarter earnings.  Notable reports today include AXP, CFG, KO, KSU, MAN, SLB, STT, SYF, & VFC.

Action Plan

Once again, the Bulls tested resistance levels on the news of a draft Brexit agreement, but a decline in Housing Starts tempered their enthusiasm.  This morning we have learned that the draft agreement has a tough challenge ahead and could fail in Parliament according to a preliminary headcount.  China reported last night it’s economy grew slower than expected in the third quarter at 6 percent.

Although the market seems to be struggling with overhead price resistance with all the political uncertainties that continue to disrupt market sentiment, technically, there may be a silver lining forming in price action.  After such a strong rally higher is looks as if the indexes are settling into a consolidation, allowing long-term averages time to catch up and building a platform that has the potential to be very bullish.  Of course, earnings and politics will have a lot say about future direction, but as of now the bulls seem very determined.  As we head into the uncertainty of the weekend, plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

As solid beat by NFLX and early morning news of a draft Brexit deal is making the bulls very happy this morning.  The QQQ now looks ready to lead the way and challenge all-time highs in the index.  Still ahead is our biggest day of earnings reports this week with a busy morning of Economic reports for the market to digest before the open.  Though I’m rooting for the bulls, we have to remember that the bears are unlikely to give up easily.  Traders should be careful not to chase morning gaps into resistance highs with the fear of missing out and remember pop and drop pattern can occur in this area.

During the night, Asian markets closed mostly lower as China issued threats of no deal if December tariffs are not removed.  However, European markets are green across the board this morning after news of a draft Brexit raises hopes.  US Futures also quickly responded higher this morning on the Brexit news pointing to a bullish open ahead of a big day of possible market-moving events. 

On the Calendar

On the Thursday Earnings Calendar, we have our biggest day of reports this week, with over 75 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include ETFC, BBT, DHR, DOV, EXPO, GPC, HON, ISRG, IVZ, KEY, MTB, MS, PM, SKX, SNA, STI, TSM, & UNP.

Action Plan

After what the UK is calling a last-ditch effort, a new Brexit deal has emerged lifting hopes as October 31 deadline approaches.  Now the question to be answered will Parlement ratify the deal?  European markets surged higher on news of the draft agreement as did the US Futures.  Yesterday the market languished in a sideways chop after a disappointing Retail Sales number that showed even online sales had declined.  On the bright side, builder stocks sharply rallied along with building material providers. 

Last night solid earnings beat my NFLX may clear the path for the QQQ to reach out and test record highs in the index even though IBM disappointed investors.  With the NASDAQ surging and a possible Brexit deal, the US Futures are suggesting a gap up open ahead of the biggest day of earnings reports this week and a busy Economic Calendar with several possible market-moving reports occurring before the opening bell.  That means anything is possible this morning, but as of now the bulls are in control and seem determined to test all-time market highs.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

With a solid kickoff to earnings season, JPM and UNH inspired the bulls to test price resistance levels in the indexes.  Hopeful reports of a Brexit deal yesterday has now stalled according to reports as the deadline quickly approaches.  We have a busy morning of earnings reports and a very important Retail Sales number at 8:30 AM Eastern for the market to digest before the open today.  BAC got the ball rolling this morning with an earnings beat, but the futures seem a bit cautious this morning with all the political uncertainty.

Asian market closed trading mixed but mostly higher as hope news of a draft Brexit deal lifted spirits.  European markets bounce between negative and positive this morning as they weigh the possible outcomes of Brexit.  US Futures traded in the red most of the night, and this morning continues to suggest a modestly lower open ahead of early morning earnings and retail sales reports. 

On the Calendar

We have more than 50 companies reporting earnings on the second day of earnings season.  Notable reports include IBM, ABT, AA, ALLY, BAC, BK, CCI, CSX, KMI, NFLX, PYPL, PNC, STLD, & USB.

Action Plan

Good earnings reports in JPM, UNH, hopeful Brexit deal news, and tech analysts upgrades lead to a broad-based rally to challenge price resistance in the indexes.  After climbing sharply throughout the morning session, upward progress stopped about as suddenly as is began spending the remainder of the day in a narrow range chop zone.  This morning we’ve learned that the Brexit negotiations have stalled, BAC had better than expected earnings, and Moody’s declared a high risk of global recession in the next 12 to 18 months.

Ahead of a busy morning of earnings reports and a Retail Sales report, futures point to a modestly lower open at the time of writing this report.  I think the big question remains can companies produce earnings to support these high prices during an extended trade war as economies slow around the world?  The Big Banks are getting it done, so let’s hope we see that trend continue with big tech reports beginning this afternoon when NFLX and IBM reports.  Technically speaking, the bulls are in control with all four major indexes above their 50-averages.  However, they remain challenged by downtrend and price resistance levels that have proved tough to breach with so much political uncertainty weighing heavily on the market.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Although there seems to be swirling political uncertainty everywhere the market will not turn its primary focus to the beginning of the 4^th quarter earnings season results. JPM has already let the way this morning with a solid beat gaping the stock higher and emboldening the bulls in the futures market.  Let’s hope the other big banks can do as well this week as earnings ramp-up in the weeks ahead.

Overnight Asian markets closed mixed as traders remain cautious on the proposed Phase 1 deal that many are now calling a temporary cease-fire.  European markets are mixed but mostly higher as EU negotiator gives hope of Brexit deal this week.  US Futures are currently green across the board as big bank earnings roll in this morning.  As of now, futures point to gap up of more than 100 Dow points, but that could easily improve or sharply diminish so expect volatility and stay focused on price action for clues forward.

On the Calendar

Today begins 4^th Quarter earnings with 42 companies on the Earnings Calendar expected to report.  Among the notable reports are C, JPM, KEY, BLK, SCHW, TACO, GS, JBHT, JNJ, PGR, PLD, SNBR, UAL, UNH, WFC & WIT.

Action Plan

How we deal with today depends very much on how the market responds to the early morning earnings reports.  Futures seem to have considerable confidence that the results from the big banks this morning pointing to more than a 100 point gap up open.  According to reports very early this morning, one of the Brexit negotiators says a deal is still possible this week, creating a rally in the sterling.  We, of course, will have to watch closely for developments in the Phase 1 deal is being renamed by some as merely a temporary cease-fire in the trade war.  Tariffs on China will increase to 30% in December if the deal fails.  Attempting to punish Turkey for its Syrian invasion the President has raised steel tariffs on the country to 50% and cleared the administration to pursue all available economic sanctions.

Though all this political uncertainty has made for very challenging price action focus will likely turn to earnings results as 4^th quarter reports ramp up this week.  With the DIA, SPY, and QQQ holding above their 50-day averages with significant gaps below, we will need some sold results to prevent prices from sliding into the gap.  As I write this, JPM has reported positive earnings results and is gaping higher. Let’s hope the other big banks can do the same settling frayed trader’s nerves and put some structure back into the chart technical’s without all daily reversals and whip.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Friday’s huge short squeeze rally seems the market seems to be struggling this morning with the very vague so-called Phase 1 deal as China now says they need more discussion before signing anything.  Over the weekend, we’ve also learned that the Brexit deal is once again proving elusive with the Sterling reversing Friday’s hopeful gains.  We also know the conflict between Turkey and Syria has escalated and that Hong Kong protesters are talking about scaling back on their activities.  What a difference a weekend can make!

Asian markets closed green across the board overnight, but that sentiment has not translated into bullish notions in Europe, which are currently seeing red across the board this morning.  US Futures have recovered from overnight lows as the vague Phase 1 deal may be harder to close than the hopeful market initially thought.  With today being a banking holiday and 4^th quarter earnings beginning Tuesday a light and choppy day would not be out of the question after a what could be a volatile open.

On the Calendar

Because it’s the national holiday Columbus Day banks and bond markets will be closed today.  As a result, we have no Economic Calendar reports today.

We have just nine companies reporting earnings today, but none are particularly notable and unlikely to be market-moving.  However, keep in mind, the official beginning of the 4^th quarter earnings begins Tuesday morning with several big banks reporting.

Action Plan

What a difference a weekend can make.  After a huge short squeeze rally that closed the Dow over 300 points higher on news of a partial trade deal.  This morning the news seems to have reversed, suggesting that China needs more discussion before a possible deal can be signed.  Details of the so-called Phase 1 deal have been few and far between; in fact one could argue extremely vague.  By the way, how many Phases are there?  In other news, the conflict between Turkey and Syria has escalated over the weekend with Turkey preparing to invade a northern Syrian city. 

The positive news of Brexit progress seems to have also shifted as many not suggest Britain will need to ask for another extension which the Prime Minister is not in favor of doing.  On a technical basis the DIA, SPY, and QQQ are now well above their respective 50-day averages but have left significant gaps behind as well as not so confident shooting start candle patterns behind.  As I write this report, futures are pointing to lower open but rallied to cut the overnight lows almost in half.  I would not be at all surprised to see the overnight lows tested after the open.  With today being a banking holiday with the bond markets closed, I’m expecting a light and choppy price action after the morning rush as we wait for the official kick-off the 4^th quarter earnings on Tuesday.

Trade Wisely,

Doug