Traders Eyeing PPI Data and Jobless Claims

On Wednesday, July CPI numbers came in much better than expected and this led to the bulls gapping markets higher.  The DIA gapped up 1.42%, the SPY gapped up 1.79%, and the QQQ gapped up a massive 2.39% at the open.  This broke the market out of its pullback from the last couple of days. However, after the open, all the heavy partying was over, as the bulls failed to give us follow-through with prices chopping sideways with a slightly bullish trend most of the day.  With that said, a rally at the end of the day took us out near the highs.  This left us with gap-up, indecisive, Spinning Top or Hangman type candles in all 3 major indices.

All ten sectors were green with Technology and Consumer Cyclical up more than two and three-quarters percent.  So, we definitely saw a risk-on day.  With that said, all 3 major indices are also now fairly extended from their T-line (8ema).  On the day, SPY closed up 2.04%, DIA was up 1.57%, and QQQ was up 2.79%.  The VXX fell to 21.44 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) is back up deep into the overbought territory at 95.18.  Interestingly, 10-year bond yields were flat on the day at 2.785% and Oil (WTI) is back up 1.13% to $91.51/barrel on the session.

In economic news, as mentioned, July CPI came in a +8.5% annually.  This was much better than the +8.7% expected and a lot better than June’s +9.1% annual reading. EIA Crude Oil Inventories followed Tuesday night’s API data came in dramatically higher than expected.  The reading was +5.458 million barrels compared to a flat +0.073 mil barrels expected.  The 10-year note auction came in at a lower than current 10-year yields (2.775% versus 2.785% open market) and significantly lower than the last auction (2.960%).  Finally, the July Federal Budget Balance came in at 211 billion, which is down 30% from the same period in 2021.

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In energy news, Russian oil deliveries to Hungary. Slovakia, and the Czech Republic after a Hungarian group agreed to pay Ukraine in dollars for the pipeline transit fees.  This is a solution only for the month of August. Elsewhere, on Wednesday, LNT, WEC, NI, and PNM all announced that they are delaying the closure of coal-fired power plants in the US.  This is seen as a political gesture in response to the climate provisions of the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act.  All the companies cited delays or potential delays in the rollout of renewable energy projects when announcing the decision.  In a follow-up to the EIA Crude report, they also announced a drawdown of 4.978 million barrels for the week.  This indicates an increase in travel for the week.   

After the close, DIS, AVT, and STN all reported beating on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, CPNG, CACI, ENS, MFC, and VZIO all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, APP missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, APP made an all-cash offer to acquire U.  This came the same day that U announced it has won a US government contract in partnership with CACI to provide simulation software.  ACHR has received a $10 million pre-delivery payment from UAL in relation to UAL’s order for 100 of the ACHR electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.  During its earnings reports, DIS announced that Disney+ subscriber growth was much higher than expected.  Analysts had forecast 147 million, but DIS reported 152.1 million subscribers.  Finally, JPM gold traders were found guilty of manipulating gold commodity prices by issuing bogus orders (canceled just before execution).  They join traders from DB and BAC who were previously convicted for the same “order spoofing” crimes.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board.  Only Japan (-0.65%) showed any red.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+2.40%), Shenzhen (+2.05%), Taiwan (+1.73%), and South Korea (+1.73%) led the region higher.  In Europe, most exchanges are on the green side, with the exception of the majors, at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.33%), DAX (-0.07%), and CAC (-0.19%) lag the rest of the region in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.42% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.21% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back down to 2.772% and Oil (WTI) is up three-quarters of a percent in early trading this morning.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include July PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AER, AIT, AZUL, BAM, CAH, DDS, HBI, KELYA, EYE, PRMW, SIX, and USFD before the open.  Then, after the close, AQN, BAP, EDR, FLO, ILMN, OSCR, PFHC, RMD, RYAN, TOST, and VET report.

So far this morning, DTEGY, BAM, BFRS, USFD, DDS, AER, AIT, DDL, EYE, PRMW, and SLVM have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, CAH, KELYA, and TAST all missed on earnings while beating on revenue. However, AEG, HBI, and SIX missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In economic news, later this week, on Friday the July Import/Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and WASDE Ag Report are released.

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After yesterday’s happy CPI news (if 8.5% inflation can be called happy news), traders are hoping for a similar story from PPI. (We know inflation is high, but we want to see Producer Prices coming in a bit to indicate that inflation has already peaked.) That sets up a binary even (similar to earnings, but in this case covering the entire market). If PPI comes in lower than expected, look for traders to gap stocks higher again. However, if PPI does not show the improvement we saw in CPI, I’d expect traders to believe they were overly optimistic yesterday and sell the market in a knee-jerk reaction. With that backdrop look for another low volume, volatile day. So, either look for longer horizons (loose stops and ability to ride fluctuations) or tighten up on the bat and take smaller, faster swings. Overall the trend remains bullish, but stocks are extended again relative to their T-lines and T2122.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UAA, DIS, CVX, Z, BA, AMD, BAC, COF, GRWG, SBUX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

All Eyes on CPI Data This Morning

On Tuesday, the large-cap indices opened flat while the QQQ gapped down about six-tenths of a percent.  From the open, both the SPY and QQQ sold off for about an hour.  Then the entire market ground sideways in a tight range the rest of the day.  This gave us indecisive, black-bodied (Spinning Top type) candles that are testing whether they can stay above their T-line (8ema).  With that said, we are just seeing a pullback in an otherwise in-tact uptrend. 

On the day, SPY fell 0.40%, DIA fell 0.16%, and QQQ dropped 1.13%.  In terms of extension, VXX fell slightly to 21.94 and T2122 is back in the mid-range at 68.60.  10-year bond yields are up slightly by remaining at 2.779% and Oil (WTI) is also up very slightly to $90.50/barrel.  So, overall, it was just another roller-coaster, “much ado about nothing” day on Wall Street.

In economic news, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity fell 4.6%, but that was better than the consensus forecast of -4.7% and far better than Q1’s -7.4%.  As is normal when productivity falls, Q2 Unit Labor Costs rose 10.8% which was worse than the forecast rise of 9.5%, but still better than Q1’s +12.7%.  After the close, API reported Weekly Crude Oil Inventories rose far more than expected.  The estimate was a flat +0.073 million barrels.  However, the actual build for the week was +2.156 million barrels.

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After the close, WELL, SMCI, HRB, AKAM, GO, TTEC, and ANGI all reported beating on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, WYNN, ADV, and MAXR all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DAR, SWX, and LNW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, COIN and RBLX missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.   

In stock news, META raised $10 billion from its first-ever bond offering, with the proceeds slated to be used for share buybacks and investments in revamping the business.  (This follows recent AAPL and INTC bond offerings.)   NCLH pre-announced a loss for the current quarter with revenue below previous estimates.  The cruise line said they expect occupancy rates will not reach pre-pandemic levels for another year, not at 65% of the 2019 levels.  In contrast, rivals RCL and CCL are both saying they expect to be over 100% occupancy this year.

In energy news, Russian oil shipments to Central Europe (Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic) via pipeline by Transneft were halted Tuesday by Ukraine.  The reason is that due to sanctions, Russia is unable to pay the transit fees to Ukraine.  This has shut down 250,000 barrels per day of oil flow.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that the UK has a plan in place for at least several days of organized rolling blackouts next winter.  The British government forecasts that electricity capacity will fall short by one-sixth of peak demand on cold days due to natural gas shortages (even after coal-fired generation plants are brought back online).  Finally, the National Avg. Gasoline price has fallen below $4/gallon for the first time since March.  Gas prices have fallen more than $0.18 in the last week and $0.72 in the last month. In somewhat related news, the Rhine river (a massive logistics thoroughfare for Europe, including oil, natural gas, coal, etc.) has become unpassable as a changing climate has dropped the water level too low for barge traffic over much of the major river.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board.  Only Singapore (+0.47%) and India (+0.06%) managed to stay in the green.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.96%), Shenzhen (-0.87%), and Taiwan (-0.74%) led the region lower.  In Europe, stocks are mixed but lean slightly to the green side at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.05%), DAX (+0.16%), and CAC (-0.12%) are typical of the region with only Norway (-1.14) and Denmark (+0.80%) showing significant moves in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day (before data).  The DIA implies a +0.20% open, the SPY is implying a +0.24% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.29% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up slightly to 2.799% and Oil (WTI) is off almost 2% to $88.83/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include July CPI (8:30 am), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), 10-year Bond Auction (1 pm), and July Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ARCO, BHG, CAE, FOXA, HMC, LTH, NOMD, WEN, and WWW before the open.  Then, after the close, APP, AVAH, AVT, BRFS, CACI, CPNG, ENS, MFC, STN, VZIO, and ZIMV report

So far this morning, WEN and LTH have reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, WWW, ADRNY, RKUNY, DNPLY, and BHG all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, HMC and NOMD beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  However, VWDRY missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get July PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims.  Then on Friday the July Import/Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and WASDE Ag Report are released.

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With CPI data on the docket this morning, expect pre-market trading to get volatile at about 8:30 am. (The consensus estimate is that we will see 8.7% annual inflation.) On a related note, BAC told clients they expect the yield curve to invert more deeply (more than any time since the 1980s) on the Fed’s inflation-fighting actions. Elsewhere, Elon Mush has sold almost $7 billion worth of TSLA stock. (This brings his total sale of TSLA stock to $32 billion since November.) He claims this most recent sale was a preventative move, to avoid a massive sale of the stock if the court rules against him in the TWTR court case. However, he also said he would buy more shares of TSLA in the event he wins the case. With that backdrop look for another low volume, volatile day. So, either look for longer horizons (loose stops and ability to ride fluctuations) or tighten up on the bat and take smaller, faster swings. Overall the trend remains bullish, even if we are pausing or pulling back a tick to ease over-extension.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CVNA, X, IGT, WFC, UBER, BAC, NTR, AA, NVAX, QNST, AR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Pelosi in Taiwan, Senate Fight, & Earnings

Whiplash was the order of the day in markets Monday.  Stocks gapped down by more than one-half of a percent to start the week.  However, the bulls immediately stepped in to rally sharply until 11 am.  They then managed to grind sideways for about an hour…until a strong selloff started at 11 am.  By 1:50 pm, the original gap-down level was reached again, but only to whipsaw back the other direction to recross the gap and then start back lower about 3:20 pm.  All 3 major indices closed modestly on the downside of flat.

This left us with something like white body, Spinning Top candles with more wick than body, and at least some of the wick on each end.  And once again, volume remains well below average.  Three of the 10 sectors are green with Consumer Cyclical by far the biggest winner and Energy by far the biggest since sector on the day.  On the day, SPY lost 0.31%, DIA lost 0.20%, and QQQ lost 0.07%.  The VXX surged almost 4% to 21.77 and T2122 fell but remains in the overbought territory at 90.63.  10-year bond yields fell sharply to 2.584% and Oil (WTI) plunged over 5% to $93.65/barrel. 

In economic news, both the July Mfg. PMI and the July ISM Mfg. PMI came in stronger than was expected.  However, both also came in lower than the June readings.  This news out of the US, in combination with worse-than-expected factory data from China and Europe Monday, resulted in a huge correction in Oil prices ahead of the coming OPEC+ meeting.

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After the close, AFL, BCC, DVN, CAR, TA, FANG, SANM, AMKR, SPG, CNO, MATX, ANET, SBAC, KMT, CACC, VNO, MPWR, AMRC, RRX, ENSG, STRL, TWI, RIG, NSP, UNVR, and RHP all reported beating on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, DVA, WMB, CF, LEG, and KFRC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ATVI, and KMPR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, MOS, PINS, EHC and WWD missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.   

In stock legal news, West Virginia’s counties and cities reached a $400 million settlement with the 3 main medical distributors (MCK, ABC, and CAH) resolving more than 100 lawsuits over liability for the fueling of opioid use.  (This is separate from the $26 billion national settlement that the 3 companies plus JNJ had reached, which excluded WV.)  Elsewhere, AAPL was sued for violations of US Antitrust Law by a French App Development company.  This suit closely resembles one brought by the same law firm against AAPL, which resulted in a $100 million settlement for a smaller app developer last August as well as one the law firm settled with GOOGL for $90 million in June.  Finally, OPEN was fined $62 million by the FTC for cheating potential home sellers between 2017 and 2019.

On the Russian war story, Ukraine was able to launch its first ship full of grain since the start of the invasion.  Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said this was a positive sign and that 16 ships are already loaded with grain and other agricultural products and ready to sail, but that only 3 ships will leave port per day for the next two weeks as per the agreement.  In Russia, the Russian Central Bank (which has been lying already about the state of the economy) told Reuters that the 4.3% economic contraction will likely increase to 7% in Q3.  (Overall, they claim the Russian GDP will fall only 4-6% in 2022 and 1-4% in 2023.)  In addition, Russia has instituted a “stealth national mobilization.”   New edicts require each of Russia’s 85 provinces to raise a new brigade for deployment to Ukraine.  In addition, some major factories are being asked to recruit a battalion each.  (Each battalion represents 500 – 1,000 men and each brigade 2,000 – 8,000 men.)  If actually implemented, that 200,000 fighting-age men would be a significant drain on the Russian economy.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned to the red side.  Chinese markets lead the drop as House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan and Chinese reaction is not yet clear.  Shenzhen (-2.37%), Shanghai (-2.26%), and Hong Kong (-2.36%) led the region lower but losses were widespread.  In Europe, stocks are nearly red across the board at mid-day with only Norway (+0.34%) and Greece (+0.23%) managing green.  The FTSE (-0.02%), DAX (-0.72%), and CAC (-0.47%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to another lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.54% open, the SPY is implying a -0.59% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.72% open at this hour.  10-year bond yield continue to fall to 2.552% and Oil (WTI) is up three-fourths of a percent to $94.64/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday we get June JOLTS (10 am), API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 pm), and Fed voter Bullard speaks (6:45 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AME, ARNC, BP, CAT, CNP, CMI, DBD, DD, ETN, ENTG, EXPD, RACE, IT, GEO, GPRE, HSC, HSIC, HUN, IDXX, ITW, INCY, IGT, JBLU, KBR, KKR, LCII, LEA, LDOS, LGIH, MPC, MAR, TAP, MPLX, PEG, SPGI, SABR, SEE, SGRY, SYNH, BLD, TSEM, VSH, WAT, WEC, WLK, XYL, ZBRA, and ZBH before the open.  Then, after the close, AMD, ABNB, ANDE, AIZ, BXC, BFAM, CZR, CWH, CHK, CLW, CNDT, CTRA, CXW, DCP, EA, EXAS, FMC, GILD, GXO, THG, PEAK, LFUS, LPLA, MTCH, MCY, MCHP, OI, OSH, OXY, PYPL, PFSI, PXD, PRU, RNG, SCI, SKY, SEDG, SBUX, STE, TEX, TX, UNM, VRSK, VOYA, and WCN report.

So far this morning, BP, MPC, CMI, LEA, DD, TAP, LDOS, MAR, WLK, MPLX, ZBH, HUN, CNP, WEC, AME, ZBRA, XYL, RACE, IT, LCII, BLD, VSH, GPRE, INCY, WAT, ATKR, and GEO have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, CAT, ETN, HSIC, KBR, SEE, SYNH, IGT, DBD, IDXX, LGIH, and TSEM all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, UBER, PEG, ARNC, JBLU, ENTG, AQUA, and WLKP all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, SPGI, RDSMY, and SGRY all missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday we get the July Services PMI, June Factory Orders, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories. Then on Thursday Import/Exports, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the June Trade Balance are announced and Fed voter Mester speaks.  Finally, on Friday we get July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, and July Unemployment Rate.

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Markets started August on a very volatile day. Today, geopolitical fear of Chinese reaction to House Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit (highest ranking US visitor in 25 years) has global markets on edge as China’s Foreign Minister has now said the PLA (Chinese Army) won’t sit idly by if she did make the visit. The other uncertainty is US political games as Republicans look to use obscure rules to block the Democrat’s tax, health prices, and climate deal they are trying to pass through reconciliation (which only requires 50 votes instead of 60). With that backdrop and pretty strong earnings coming in again today, look for another low volume, volatile day. So, either look for longer horizons (loose stops and ability to ride fluctuations) or tighten up on the bat and take smaller, faster swings. Overall the trend remains bullish, even if we are pausing or pulling back a tick to ease over-extension.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VIPS, KWEB, FUTU, BABA, PDD, BZ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

PMI Data and More Earnings On Tap

Markets opened positive, if mixed, on Friday.  The DIA opened flat, while the SPY and QQQ both gapped about a half of a percent higher at the open. All 3 major indices then followed through in a rally until about 10:45 am.  At that point, all 3 sold off sharply for 45 minutes only to reverse again and start a long, strong, sustained rally for almost the entire rest of the day.  With that said, in the last 10 minutes of the day, all 3 indices sold off as that dark pool volume crossed the tape.  This left us with strong white candles with wicks on both ends across the major indices.  Volume was closer, but still below, average on that month-end rebalancing. 

Eight of the 10 sectors were in the green, with Energy up a whopping 3.08% and the worst of the losers was Healthcare (-0.59%).  Over 70% of stocks closed about their 40sma and 29% closed above the 200sma.  On the day, SPY gained 1.46%, DIA gained 1.01%, and QQQ gained 1.82%.  The VXX climbed slightly to 20.94 and T2122 remains deep in the overbought territory at 96.46.  10-year bonds yields were down sharply as somebody bought up bonds, giving us a 2.66% yield and Oil (WTI) was up more than 2% to $98.43/barrel.  This ended the best month since 2020 in all 3 major indices.

In economic news, June Personal Spending came in stronger than expected at +1.1% (versus +0.9% estimated and May’s +0.3%).  The Q2 Employment Cost Index came in a bit higher than expected too at +1.3% (versus +1.2% forecast), but better than Q1’s +1.4% number. The Chicago PMI came in lower than expected at 52.1 (55.0 estimate).  However, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in better than expected at 51.5 (versus an estimate of 51.1 and last month’s 50.0). Taken together, this shows us the business is softening in anticipation of a downturn, but the consumer (driver of the economy) is holding up and has a little better outlook now that gas prices have been falling for 2 months.

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In stock news, on Friday BABA was added to the SEC’s delisting watchlist (of more than 270 Chinese companies identified as at risk for delisting. The dispute is over non-compliance with US auditing standards.  BABA was down more than 11% on the day.  Elsewhere, AVYA fell 57% after the company posted terrible preliminary Q3 results and fired the company’s CEO.  At the close Friday, AMD passed INTC in terms of market cap after INTC’s -8.56% day on poor earnings and outlook.  On Saturday, BA workers cancelled their planned strike and will instead vote on a new contract proposal on Wednesday.  Also on Saturday, USB was fined $37.5 million for the same practices that caused the uproar over WFC.  USB had pressured employees to meet quotas by illegally accessing customer credit and personal data (for targeting) and then opening sham accounts in customer names.

In China news, real estate developer Evergrande said one of its subsidiaries had been ordered to pay a little over $1 billion to a guarantor, who had guaranteed loans in July 2021.  Evergrande defaulted on the loans, the guarantor paid, and now Evergrande is obligated to pay the guarantor ahead of other creditors.  In the same sector, a Chinese mortgage payment revolt (well over 100 developers have been hit with a loan payment boycott as projects were not completed by developers) has caused prospective new buyers to rethink.  As a result, Chinese July home sales fell a staggering 40% (year on year) as new buyers no longer trust the developers will finish projects.  Elsewhere, Speaker of the House Pelosi has left Sunday for her Asian trip with the itinerary, and the Speaker herself being silent on whether there will be a stop in Taiwan.  This comes as China decried a potential visit from what would be the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan since 1997. 

So far this morning, BLDR, J, GPN, AMG, CHKP, ARLP, and L have all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, HSBC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CNA and JELD both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  So far there have been no reports today that missed on both revenue and earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side on Monday.  Shenzhen (+1.20%), Thailand (+1.07%), and India (+1.06%) led the gainers.  Only Taiwan (-0.12%) showed any red on the day.  In Europe, stocks are leaning to the upside, but show more red than in Asia at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.51%), DAX (+0.40%), and CAC (+0.46%) are leading the region higher while 5 exchanges head South, led by Russia (-0.67%) in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward an open just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.02% open, the SPY is implying a -0.15% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are falling, now at 2.649%, and Oil (WTI) is down more than 1.6% to $97.01/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Monday are limited to Mfg. PMI (9:45 am) and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AJRD, AMG, ARLP, BLDR, CHKP, CAN, GPN, HSBC, J, JELD, K, and ON before the open.  Then, after the close, ATVI, AFL, AMRC, ANET, CAR, CF, CVI, DVA, DVN, FANG, EHC, ENSG, NSP, KMPR, KMT, LEG, MATX, MOS, PINS, RRX, SANM, SBAC, SPG, STRL, TWI, RIG, TA, UNVR, WMB, and WWD report.

More than 20% of the S&P 500 report earnings this week.  However, in economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get June JOLTS, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, and Fed voter Bullard speaks.  Then on Wednesday the July Services PMI, June Factory Orders, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories are announced.  On Thursday we get Import/Exports, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, June Trade Balance, and Fed voter Mester speaks.  Finally, on Friday we get July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, and July Unemployment Rate.

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As markets come off a very strong July, the dual fears of inflation and recession remain. However, for the most part, earnings reports continue to be strong…although many commpanies are issuing warnings and guiding lower. In short, we remain in a volatile market where major intraday reversals or many smaller whipsaws remain the norm. The trend remains bullish, but there is a lot of technical damage (resistance) to work through from the months of pullback. The one thing that continues to ring true is that volume shows that retail traders (and the big money) remain afraid to jump into this market yet. So, be cautious in believing that the recent trend truly shows market conviction.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BA, NIO, AMD, TSLA, MU, SQM, WMT, NVDA, MRVL, CVX, KMI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

AMZN, AAPL, and CVX, Lead Stocks Higher

Despite the GDP showing a technical recession is underway, markets opened with very minimal gaps (in both directions, QQQ down and large-caps up) on Thursday.  All 3 major indices then sold off 1% or more over the first hour.  However, at 10:30 am, they all reversed and rallied strongly until noon, more than making up for the selloff.  After an hour of rest, the rally resumed, reaching the highs of the day late in the session and closing near the highs.  This is leaving us with large white candles with significant lower wicks (and small upper wicks) in all 3 major indices. 

All 10 sectors were green (with energy down only 0.05% with 30 minutes left in the day.  67% of stocks are now above their 40sma and 27% are above their 200sma. With that said, volume remains below average. We are also looking very overextended in all 3 major indices in relation to the T-line (8ema).  On the day, SPY gained 1.25%, DIA gained 1.00%, and QQQ gained 0.98%.  The VXX fell 2.3% to 20.82 and T2122 remains deep in the overbought territory at 96.31.  10-year bonds fell to 2.672% and Oil (WTI) was just on the downside of flat for the day at $97.18/barrel.

In economic news, regardless of what Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Sec. Yellen, and the White House said just the day before, GDP data Thursday morning showed we are, at least technically, in a recession.  The Q2 GDP came in at -0.9%, far below the consensus estimate of +0.5%.  However, that was slightly better than Q1’s -1.6% growth number.  In the same vein, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in slightly higher than expected at 256k (versus 253k forecast).  However, this too was better than the previous week’s 261k number.  So, the time series shows improvements, but we’re still worst off on both measures than we thought we should be.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In business news, Thursday was the US House’s turn to pass the “Chips and Science” bill (again in a bipartisan vote) and the “law to be” is now headed for President Biden’s signature. The bill provides $52 billion in subsidies along with another $24 billion in tax credits for semiconductor manufacturing in the US.  The House is expected to pass the revised bill later this week.  The bill disproportionately benefits INTC, TXN, and MU. (INTC alone is expected to get $30 billion in subsidies.)  However, chip designers like AMD, QCOM, and NVDA (regardless of the uproar over insider trading claiming they will benefit) are left out in the cold.  This is because the latter group does not make chips.  Instead, they contract out the production to TSM and to a lesser extent Global Foundries.

In energy news, as expected, we’ve seen record profits (if for some reason, not always revenue) across the major oil producers so far this quarter.  However, a dispute is now in place as the US has officially complained about Mexico’s energy policy of tightening control over its oil and electricity markets.  US energy companies see the actions to strengthen the Mexican state-run energy companies at the cost of private investors as a violation of the USMCA (formerly NAFTA) agreement.  (And the Biden Administration has taken up the cause on behalf of those companies.)  This may lead to a trade dispute, as Mexico is so far being defiant and asserting its national sovereignty.  Elsewhere, Europe is scrambling to cut natural gas use, get coal-fired power plants back online, and today France’s President met with Saudi Crown Prince MBS in another bid to get OPEC+ to increase production quotas at their meeting next week.  Examples of European gas-saving measures include the German city of Hanover switching off lighting at public fountains, the illuminations of buildings, cutting off hot water in public buildings, mandating 33% higher room temperatures (daycare excluded), and putting motion-detecting lighting in many public conveniences/buildings. 

After the close, AAPL, LHX, EIX, EMN, CE, KLAC, AJG, TFII, CC, CLR, TBBK, TXRH, ATR, BIO, SKYW, FSLR, DXCM, UTCC, DECK, AUY, MERC, MTD, MTX, INT, and SGEN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HIG, MHK, OLN, EW, and BZH missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AMZN, X, VFC, ERIE, and ULCC beat on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, INTC, AVTR, DLR, and ROKU missed on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (-2.26%) was an outlier while Shenzhen (-1.30%), Shanghai (-0.89%), and Singapore (-0.28%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, Thailand (+1.50%), New Zealand (+1.45%), and India (+1.35%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are almost green across the board at mid-day.  Portugal (-0.51%) is the only red while the FTSE (+0.58%), DAX (+1.28%), and CAC (+1.42%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trading.  As od 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green, if divergent, start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.21% open, the SPY is implying a +0.66% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.02% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 2.701% and Oil (WTI) is back up to $98.60/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday include June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, and June Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABBV, AB, AON, ARCB, AZN, BLMN, BAH, CRI, CBOE, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CNHI, CL, ENB, XOM, IMO, ITCB, LYB, MGA, NWL, NMRK, NVT, PSX, PG, GWW, and WY before the open.  There are no major earnings scheduled for after the close.

So far this morning, CVX, BNPQY, CHTR, LYB, SMFG, AZN, TAK, MFG, CL, AFLYY, WY, BAH, CHT, BLMN, AB, ARCB, and NVT all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, XOM, PSX, KMTUY, AON, NWL, and CHD all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, PG, MGA, FMS, and ES all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  So far this morning, there are no reports that missed on both revenue and earnings.

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What is turning out to be another strong quarter of earnings (despite the lowering of forward guidance) has lifted market spirits. Today, it will be AMZN, AAPL (both from last night), CVX, and XOM that lead markets higher early. There is more economic data, but of late, Mr. Market doesn’t seem to care about economic data. With that said, expect more volatility as intraday reversals are the norm in recent weeks. We do have an uptrend in progress in all 3 major indices, but resistance is not too far overhead and we have a weekend news cycle starting after the close. Both of those urge caution on the Friday trader’s part. The only thing we know for sure is that low volumes for weeks indicate that the big money and John Q Public are not ready to believe the bottom is in just yet.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CLOV, VLO, V, GD, AAPL, NVDA, GE, NFLX, PYPL, CSCO, WMT, CLF. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

GDP On Tap After Powell Presser Rally

Stocks all gapped higher, but diverged in doing so yesterday with the traders seeming to bet that the Fed announcement would be positive for the market.  The DIA gapped up four-tenths of a percent, the SPY gapped up nine-tenths of a percent, and the QQQ gapped up 1.6% higher.  After a little follow-through, the first 30 minutes all 3 major indices traded flat (even through the Fed rate announcement) until after Fed Chair Presser started.  However, the move at 2:40 pm was meteoric to the upside.  We then saw the rally continue more-or-less into the close.  This left us with a Bull Kicker in the QQQ and SPY, and just a gap-up strong white candle in the DIA. 

Almost 62% of stocks are now above their 40sma and 23.54% of them are above their 200sma.  So, all 3 major indices are also back above their T-lines (8 ema). The volume on the day was better than Tuesday, but still well below an average that continues to decline.  All 10 sectors were green, with Technology far and away the big winner, up 4.37%.  On the day, SPY gained 2.60%, DIA gained 1.41%, and QQQ gained 4.23%.  The VXX fell 1.7% to 21.31 and T2122 climbed high into the overbought territory at 97.16.  10-year bond yields fell to 2.776% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.3% to $98.12 (apparently on answers from Chair Powell that we are not in a recession).

As expected, the Fed (in a unanimous vote) raised rates 0.75%, which takes the rate to 2.25-2.50% on Wednesday.  The hike itself was fully priced-in and markets had very little reaction on the hike news alone.  However, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference set off a massive afternoon rally.  In his presser, Powell said he did not think the US was in a recession yet (we’ll find out later this morning). He also said it would be appropriate at some point for the Fed to slow increases and assess how the overall policy was impacting both inflation and the economy.  This left open the possibility for a lesser increase in Sept. which is what I think may have led to the presser-timed rally.  He went on to point out the job growth remains robust and unemployment remains low.

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In business news, the US Senate passed the “Chips and Science” bill in a bipartisan vote.  This bill provides $52 billion in subsidies along with another $24 billion in tax credits for semiconductor manufacturing in the US.  The House is expected to pass the revised bill later this week.  The bill disproportionately benefits INTC, TXN, and MU. (INTC alone is expected to get $30 billion in subsidies.)  However, chip designers like AMD, QCOM, and NVDA (regardless of the uproar over insider trading claiming they will benefit) are left out in the cold.  This is because the latter group does not make chips.  Instead, they contract out the production to TSM and to a lesser extent Global Foundries.

In stock news, after the close, SAVE canceled its negotiations with potential buyer ULCC after months of negotiations.  SAVE’s talks with JBLU (another potential buyer) continue.  (Then overnight JBLU agreed to buy SAVE for $3.8 billion.) However, any potential purchase may face monopoly scrutiny related to the Northeast corridor routes.  Elsewhere, BBY lowered its forward guidance and is now expecting a drop of 13% in sales in Q3 and an 11% drop for the year.  CS also announced they have replaced their CEO.

After the close, F, QCOM, MOH, CHRW, MUSA, LRCX, URI, FBHS, NCR, NOV, MTH, CSL, HOLX, GFL, CCS, ASGN, PLXS, MKSI, FIX, MYRG, CMPR, ACHC, AVB, QGEN, ETSY, GGG, TDOC, INVH, SLM, SNBR, MAA, FRWD, TYL, VICI, HP, and EQT all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, FLEX, WFG, RJF, FTI, OMF, KGC, and OII all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CTSH, RE, ACGL, EQIX, NOW, AWK, AEM, TROX, FLS, ICLR, ESI, COLM, AMED, CHE, and CHDN all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, META, ORLY, CYH, CINF, SSNC, MEOH, ALGN, LUNMF, CAKE, AR, JBT, and PTC all missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board.  Only Hong Kong (-0.23%) and Taiwan (-0.20%) showed any red.  Meanwhile, New Zealand (+1.74%), India (+1.73%), and Thailand (+1.50%) led the region higher.  In Europe, stocks are showing a similar pattern at mid-day.  It is the biggest exchanges that lag the rally with the FTSE (-0.15%), DAX (+0.01%), and CAC (+0.13%) following the rest of the continent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.14% open, the SPY is implying a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.56% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up slightly to 2.785% and Oil (WTI) is up more than 2% to $99.24/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday are limited to Q2 GDP and Weekly Initial jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  Treasury Sec. Yellen also speaks at 8:30 am.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AOS, AGCO, ALLE, MO, AMT, BUD, HOUS, MT, ARCH, ARES, ABG, BAX, BFH, BC, CP, CRS, CARR, CVE, CMS, CNX, CMCSA, DTE, EXP, EME, EEFT, FAF, FCNCA, FCFS, FMX, FTS, FTV, BEN, FCN, GTX, GOL, GVA, HOG, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, JHG, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LII, LECO, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MMP, HZO, MLM, MAS, MA, MRK, NOC, ORI, OSK, OSTK, PATK, PBF, BTU, PFE, PCG, BPOP, POR, RS, RCL, SNY, SNDR, SHEL, SIRI, SAH, SO, LUV, SWK, STM, TROW, TRP, TFX, TXT, TMO, TKR, TNL, VLO, VSTO, VC, WST, WEX, WTW, and XEL before the open.  Then after the close, AMZN, AAPL, ATR, AJG, AVTR, BZH, BIO, CE, CC, CLR, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, EW, ERIE, FSLR, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LHX, LBTYA, MTD, MTX, MHK, OLN, ROKU, SKYW, TXRH, TFII, UCTT, X, VALE, VFC, INT, and AUY report.

So far this morning, CMCSA, VLO, PFE, MRK, SNY, TMO, HON, CVE, LIN, MO, PBF, IP, CARR, SO, ASX, LUV, LH, RS, TXT, KDP, XEL, STM, ABG, AMT, HSY, BC, MDC, ARES, TKR, AOS, VSTO, ALLE, WST, EEFT, VC, KEX, VIRT, POR, EXP, WEX, VLY, TRTN, HEES, KIM, CBZ, and STNG all beat on both the top and bottom lines.  At the same time, MT, BUD, NOC, LKQ, FAF, HOG, LAZ, TNL, TFX, HZO, FCFS, SHEL, and WTW all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DTE, SIRI, FTS, and ARCH beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, SWK, SAH, DTE, BAX, MAS, OSK, TROW, GVA, GTX, OSTK, and JHG all missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In economic news coming later this week, Friday we get the June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

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As usual on Fed rate hikes, the market seems to have rethought the late afternoon rally from yesterday and is looking to open tepidly bearish…pending the GDP news, of course. Truthfully, the GDP print (and whether we are actually already in a recession) will drive trading today…especially if it says we are. Also, don’t discount the talking heads rehashing and reparsing every word Powell said yesterday. That may cause fluctuations across the market as every Tom, Dick, and Harry tells us what Powell “was really saying or implying.” Beyond that, we now have higher lows and higher highs in all 3 major indices, which is the very definition of an uptrend. However, don’t be surprised if/when we see more intraday whipsaw action.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ENVX, DOV, MRO, GE, F, BEAM, TXN, NFLX, NOK, PYPL. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

An Earnings Flood and Fed on Deck Today

Markets gapped down between one and two-thirds of a percent at the open Tuesday.  All 3 major indices then followed through by selling off until lows were hit about noon.  From that point, DIA recovered a little with the SPY and QQQ continuing to bob along the lows.  However, from 1:30 pm to 3 pm all 3 indices sold off again to drive to new lows before grinding sideways the last hour.  8 of the 10 sectors are in the red with Consumer Cyclical and Technology taking by far the worst hit.  Healthcare and Utilities sectors managed to stay green.  This action had all 3 major indices printing gap-down, black-bodied candles.  QQQ has clearly given up the T-line as support while the SPY could be said to still be testing it and the DIA has yet to reach that much pullback.  With that said, all 3 are holding just above their 50sma. 

On the day, SPY lost 1.18%, DIA lost 0.76%, and QQQ lost 1.96%.  The VXX rose almost 3.5% to 21.67 and T2122 fell to just outside the overbought territory at 76.34.  10-year bond yields climbed back to remain flat at 2.80% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.6% to $95.16/barrel.  As has been the case for weeks, the volume was very light.  So, overall, it looks like Mr. Market was betting on more downside ahead of Wednesday’s Fed announcement.

In business news, just before the open, SHOP announced it will lay off 10% of its workforce as the company struggles with slowing growth.  After hours, TEVA announced it had reached a nationwide settlement of opioid lawsuits in the amount of $4.25 billion paid over 13 years.  The NHTSA also announced it will be investigating a crash (which killed a motorcyclist) that involved a TSLA which was operating under Autopilot mode.  Of note, both MDLZ and KO raised their full year guidance on strong demand.  Finally, TWTR announced after hours that it will hold its shareholder vote on the Musk acquisition on September 13 (the court case takes place in October).

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In energy news, after hours the American Petroleum Institute announced that US oil inventories fell by more than 4 million barrels last week (a drawdown of 1.21 million barrels was expected).  The White House also announced that it does not plan to continue releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after the initial 6-month window.  Elsewhere, the EU has agreed on cuts to natural gas usage.  Each country agreed to cut their usage by 15% from August through March (versus the average use from 2017-2021).  However, the agreement included exemptions for many industries.  In related news, Germany announced it will cut electric car subsidies in 2023.

After the close, ASH, CB, MDLZ, V, TXN, AMP, CNI, FE, SKX, AGR, AXS, RUSHA, TNET, TER, BYD, CHX, BXP, EQR, CSGP, MTDR, ENPH, and NEX all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, CMG, and AXTA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, JNPR, ZION, and HA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GOOGL, GOOG, MSFT, and SYK all missed on both revenue and earnings.

So far this morning, BASFY, HUM, BMY, KHC, GPC, WM, TEVA, TEL, AEP, ADP, BSX, RCI, GIB, OC, AVY, TECK, CSTM, TMHC, ICL, HLT, GRMN, ODFL, EVR, IEX, SCL, SHOO, CHEF, TRN, and CCJ all posted beats on bot the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, EQNR, GSK, GD, PAG, OTIS, GPI, ROK, CME, TPX, TDY, PRG, and TRN all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BG, DB, CS, SPOT, UMC, IVZ, EDU, and WNC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, BA, TMUS, and SHW missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside.  Hong Kong (-1.13%) was the only appreciable loser on the day.  Meanwhile, Thailand (+1.50%), India (+0.96%), and Taiwan (+0.78%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are mostly green at mid-day.  With only 3 minor exchanges showing very modest red, the FTSE (+0.57%), DAX (+0.26%), and CAC (+0.24%) are more typical of the region in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day ahead of data.  The DIA implies a +0.37% open, the SPY is implying a +0.80% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.33% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields remain flat at 2.801% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.2% to $96.13/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include June Durable Goods Orders, June Trade Goods Balance, and June Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), June Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), the Fed Interest Rate Decision and Fed Statement (both at 2 pm), and FOMC Chair Press Conference (2:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AEP, APH, ADP, AVY, BA, BSX, BMY, BG, CAJ, GIB, CHEF, CME, CSTM, CS, CPG, DB, DRVN, EVR, FSV, GRMN, GD, GPC, GPI, HES, HLT, HUM, ICL, IVZ, KHC, LW, MHO, NSC, ODFL, OPCH, OTIS, OC, PAG, PRG, ROK, RCI, ROL, R, SAIA, SHW, SHOP, SLGN, SPOT, SCL, SHOO, TMUS, TMHC, TEL, TECK, TDY, TPX, TEVA, TRN, UMC, WNC, and WM before the open.  Then after the close, ACHC, AEM, ALGN, AMED, AWK, NLY, AR, ACGL, ASGN, AVB, CHRW, CSL, CG, CCS, CAKE, CHE, CHDN, CMPR, CINF, CTSH, COLM, FIX, CYH, ESI, EQT, EQIX, ETSY, RE, FLEX, FLS, F, FBHS, FWRD, GFL, GGG, HP, HOLX, ICLR, INVH, JBT, LCRX, MTH, META, MEOH, MAA, MKSI, MOH, MUSA, MYRG, NCR, NOV, ORLY, OII, OMF, PPC, PLXS, PTC, QCOM, RJF, NOW, SNBR, SSNC, STC, FTI, TDOC, TROX, URI, VICI, WFRD, and WFG report.

In economic news coming later this week, Thursday brings Q2 GDP and Weekly Initial jobless Claims.  Then Friday we get the June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

LTA Scanning Software

With the Fed taking center stage today, the major indices seem a little bullish in premarket. And while there may be a pop to start the day, do not be surprised if we see a reversal or at least a dead market until the FOMC news finally breaks and we hear Fed Chair Powell’s tone in the presser. Futures have pegged it as an extremely high probability of a 0.75% rate hike. However, the outlook for September and beyond will be at least as important as the hike itself. The only exception to this would be if the Fed goes bigger to a 1% hike (which is a low probability according to futures). The point is the market is hanging on words and parsing sentences. So, don’t predict and get burned. Also, don’t be surprised if/when we see more intraday whipsaw action…especially after the 2 pm announcement. Still, the longer-term chart continues to show the downtrend hasn’t been broken (or at least it is not clear it is broken and held) across the major indices. So, be careful taking anything but very short-term trades. Also, remember that Q2 GDP comes out tomorrow and there are a flood of earnings still coming. Caution, hedged, small-and-nimble, or flat are the watchwords at the moment.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

WMT Warning and Earnings Galore

Stocks opened flat to modestly higher on Monday.  The two large-cap indices then proceeded to roller-coaster sideways until 1:30 pm – 2 pm, when a modest selloff took us to the lows of the day by 3 pm.  Meanwhile, the QQQ sold off the first hour of the day and then roller-coastered sideways at a lower level until 1 pm, when its own selloff took hold taking it to the lows of the day also at 3 pm.  However, a late rally took all 3 major indices up off the lows in a strong rally the last 30 minutes. On the daily chart, this left us with black-bodied candles with wicks on both ends (the longer one to the downside).  The SPY and DIA printed indecisive Doji candles and the QQQ printed a Spinning Top.  However, all 3 major indices do remain above their T-line in a rising short-term trend.

All of this happened on very low volume yet again (with only a dark pool surge taking the DIA barely above average volume.  On the day, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA gained 0.28%, and QQQ lost 0.57%.  The VXX fell a little over 1% to 21.15 and T2122 climbed deeper into the overbought territory at 91.22.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.805% and Oil (WTI) climbed more than 2% to $96.66/barrel.  Despite this roller-coaster action in the indices, 8 of the 10 sectors were in the green, including Energy (which was far-and-away the biggest mover on the day) while Technology and Consumer Cyclicals were moderately lower. 

In business news, after hours WMT warned about its profit forecast.  This warning comes after the retailer cut its prices to get rid of excess inventory.  This news sent shocks throughout the retail industry. WMT stock was down more than 10% in post-market trading.  AMZN was off 4.5% and TGT was down almost 6% on the WMT news.  Discount chains fared slightly better on that news.  BIG, DLTR, DG, BJ, and OLLI were all down 4%, while COST was down 3%.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In energy news, during the day Russia’s Gazprom said it would further reduce the flow of gas to Europe from 40% of pipeline capacity to 20% of capacity.  Gazprom said they were having equipment problems related to a turbine pump sent to Canada (Siemens) for repair, delayed in return due to sanctions, and now back in Russian hands.  In related news, the IEA says that the US has eclipsed Russia to become the largest exporter of natural gas to Europe as of last month.  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that a drop off in US demand, a glut of oil at trading hubs, and the expected coming exports from China and India (reshipping Russian oil) has refiners under pressure.  The report says that refiners are now looking to reduce production in order to maintain higher profit margins. This comes as we now have had 6.5 consecutive weeks of falling gasoline prices.

After the close, UHS, PKG, CDNS, FFIV, ARE, WIRE, and CADE all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, WHR, and RNR both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, NXPI, and SSD both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, KALU missed on both the top and bottom lines.

So far this morning, CNC, UPS, ADM, GE, KO, FISV, GPK, PNR, AAN, and ARCC all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, RTX, MMM, MCD, PHM, PII, XRX, AVNT, TRU, VNTR, and MSCI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, UBS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GM, MCO, and CEQP missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that MMM also announced it will spin off its healthcare unit into a separate publicly trade company.  That transaction is expected to complete at the end of 2023.  In addition, GM cited supply chain problems for their misses and MCD touted price increases (increased margins) as the reason it beat on earnings even while missing on lower sales.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (+1.67%), Shenzhen (+0.95%), and Shanghai (+0.83%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, India (-0.898%), Taiwan (-0.87%), and Thailand (-0.46%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.56%) points higher while the DAX (-0.92%) and CAC (-0.48%) point lower.  Russia (+1.95%) is the biggest mover in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.43% open, the SPY is implying a -0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.45% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are falling at 2.758% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.8% to $98.48/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and June New Home Sales (both at 10 am), and the 5-year bond auction (1 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include MMM, AAN, ACI, ADM, ARCC, AVNT, CNC, KO, GLW, CEQP, ECL, FISV, FELE, GE, GM, GPK, HUBB, IVZ, KMB, MCD, MCO, MSCI, PCAR, PNR, PII, PHM, RTX, ST, TRU, UBS, UPS, WSO, and XRX before the open.  Then after the close, GOOGL, AMP, ASH, AGR, AXTA, AXS, BXP, BYD, CNI, CHX, CMG, CB, CSGP, ENPH, EQR, FE, GOOG, HA, JNPR, MTDR, MSFT, MDLZ, NEX, RUSHA, SKX, TER, TXN, V, and ZION report.

In economic news coming later this week, on Wednesday, June Durable Goods Orders, June Trade Goods Balance, June Retail Inventories, June Pending Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and FOMC Press Conference are announced.  Thursday brings Q2 GDP, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, Friday we get the June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

LTA Scanning Software

The WMT warning and big-name earnings misses have markets pulling back this morning. However, at least at this point, it looks like the T-line is holding as support and the daily chart continues to look like nothing more than a pullback in the recent week-long uptrend. These factors, plus the earnings calls, are likely to drive the market early today. As we get later in the day, positioning for tomorrow’s Fed announcement (which futures show a very high probability of being a 0.75% hike…but the wording and Q/A count!) and perhaps some waiting on that shoe to drop are likely to be the key factor across stocks, bonds, and even energy commodities. Don’t be surprised if/when we see more intraday whipsaw action. Still, if we look at a longer-term chart, you can see that the downtrend has not been broken (or at least it is not clear it is broken and held) across the major indices. So, be careful taking anything but short-term trades ahead of the data and more importantly market reactions coming later in the week.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BBY XRT, SBUX, COST, ETSY, TSLA, DKS, ROST, GES, PLNT, CHWY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Fed and Q2 GDP Week Starts Slow

Markets opened mixed on Friday, ran up the first 30 minutes, and then reversed into a strong selloff into 2:15 pm.  The bulls then stepped back in to lead a small counter rally from 2:15 into the close.  Eight of the 10 sectors are in the red with Technology leading the charge lower after Thursday night’s big miss by SNAP.  Utilities were the only sector to manage to stay significantly green as traders sought safety.  On the daily chart, the result was that all 3 major indices touched 6-week highs before retreating.  This action is left us with a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candle in the SPY (and close to one in the DIA).  Both also appear headed back down to retest their 50sma (which are now close below) as support. Meanwhile, the QQQ just printed a big, ugly black candle with larger wicks on both ends of the body. 

Yet again, volume was very light on the day, far below the average for the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.93%, DIA lost 0.42%, and QQQ lost 1.75%.  The VXX rose nearly 1% to 21.40 and T2122 fell but remains inside the overbought territory at 85.78.  10-year bond yields also plummeted for the same reason, running down to 2.73% before closing at 2.754% as markets bought up bonds.  Oil (WTI) is down only 1.31% to $95.09/barrel.  Friday’s move also saw us give back some of the gains for the week, creating Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices on a weekly chart.

In China news, Macau casinos (as well as many other businesses) reopened on a limited scale on Saturday.  The reason for the slowed reopening is many restrictions remain in place.  In the Chinese Real Estate sector, the CEO and CFO of defaulted property company Evergrande Group have resigned.  Elsewhere, China continues to complain and warn about a potential trip by Speaker of the House Pelosi to Taiwan.  The Washington Post reported that the Biden Administration is now worried about the trip and may do some horse-trading with China to get something in exchange for stopping Pelosi from making the trip.  Finally, Sunday the Financial Times reports that major US-listed Chinese companies (including BABA, BIDU, and JD) have come up with a 3-tier data storage and audit strategy that they believe will allow them to remain listed in the US while complying with both Chinese and American regulations.  The idea is that all data will be classified as non-sensitive, sensitive, or secretive data and different auditors would be allowed access to different tiers of data.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

On the Russian invasion story, we have passed 150 days of war and are now working on the 6th month. Russia surprised markets Friday with a 150-basis-point rate cut (analysts had expected a 0.50% cut).  This seems to indicate Russian concern over their economy.  Related to grain, Ukraine and Russia did sign an agreement to allow the reopening of the Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain shipments.  This caused a major decrease in grain prices globally Friday.  However, less than 24 hours after they signed the agreement, Russia launched multiple missile attacks on the port of Odesa. Meanwhile, Germany stepped in with a $15.3 billion bailout of German gas company Uniper on Friday afternoon.  The deal also allows Uniper to start passing along some of the soaring gas price increases to end consumers (which were prohibited in the past).  Meanwhile, the US has approved a 16th military assistance package for Ukraine.  More importantly, the Pentagon also says the US is now ready to give/lease Ukraine jets in future packages, including the A-10 Warthog (tank buster made by NOC) and F-16 (a fighter from GD). 

In business news, after the close Friday, UBER admitted to covering up a 2016 hack of their systems which affected 57 million passengers and drivers.  This was part of a non-prosecution agreement with the FTC.  On the other hand, TMUS agreed to pay $350 million plus spend another $150 million on security upgrades to settle litigation over a 2021 cyberattack affecting 76.6 million customers.  (They are expected to take a $400 million Q2 charge over the matter.)  A Hyundai subsidiary in Alabama has been accused of using child labor (including a 12-year-old boy, his 14-yeard old sister, and 15-year-old brother).  The Hyundai subsidiary denied responsibility saying they relied on 3rd-party temporary work agencies to fill assembly plant jobs and expects them to remain in compliance with all labor laws.  On Sunday, 2,500 workers at 3 BA (Defense division) plants rejected a contract (over the removal of a pension and funding level in 401K contributions) and announced they will strike on August 1. 

So far this morning, INFY, NEM, and RPM have all reported beats on revenue while missing on earnings.  RHG reported in line with expectations on both lines.  DORM beat on both revenue and earnings, but also lowered forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily toward the downside, but on modest moves.  Shenzhen (-0.83%), Japan (-0.77%), and Shanghai (-0.60%) paced the losses with only Thailand (+0.49%), South Korea (+0.44%), and Malaysia (+0.23%) in the green.  In Europe, stocks are leaning the opposite way (again on modest moves) with only 4 showing red at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.10%), DAX (+0.46%), and CAC (+0.53%) are typical of the region with Norway (-0.77%) and Denmark (-0.91%) the only appreciable losers in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day. The DIA implies a +0.55% open, the SPY is implying a +0.57% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.56% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 2.814% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.25% to $95.90/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include INFY, and RPM before the open.  Then after the close, ARE, BRO, CADE, CDNS, CLS, CR, WIRE, FFIV, KALU, LBRT, LOGI, NXPI, PKG, RRC, RNR, SSD, and WHR report. 

In economic news coming later this week, on Tuesday we get Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, June New Home Sales, and the 5-year bond auction.  Then Wednesday June Durable Goods Orders, June Trade Goods Balance, June Retail Inventories, June Pending Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and FOMC Press Conference are announced.  Thursday brings Q2 GDP, and Weekly Initial jobless Claims.  Finally, Friday we get the June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

LTA Scanning Software

This data-heavy week (including a ton of major earnings reports) starts off slowly this morning. Ahead of the Fed and Q2 GDP, markets are drifting higher to start the week. The same may be true of food commodity prices as Russian attacks on Odesa (and for no apparent military reason Ukrainian wheat fields) has the world once again worried about food supplies. Don’t be surprised if/when we see more intraday whipsaw action. Yet on the daily chart, the bulls have the short-term trend on their side and are well up off the overnight lows. Still, if we look at a longer-term (perhaps weekly) chart, you can see that the downtrend has not been broken (or at least it is not clear it is broken and held) across the major indices. So, be careful taking anything but short-term trades ahead of the data and more importantly market reactions coming later in the week.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UPRO, SQ, ARKK, AFRM, CROX, NOK, BA, MRNA, DIS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

SNAP and STX have QQQ A Little Spooked

Stocks opened basically flat on Thursday, but then sold off for the first hour.  This saw the two large-cap indices to bounce up off their 50sma.  For the rest of the day, we had a series of whipsaws, ending on bullish swing right into the close.  In a broader context, it was another volatile, whipsaw day where the action ended up being bullish…again, on low volume.  7 of the 10 sectors were in the green with Healthcare and Technology leading the winners.  However, Energy and Communication Services were the biggest movers and they were both losing sectors.  The day saw the QQQ drag the large-caps higher on a standout post-earnings move by TSLA.

This all left us with white-bodied candles with longer lower wicks.  So, at this point, all three major indices are above their 50sma and sit a bit extended from their T-line (8ema) as well as in terms of their 4-week New High/Low Ratios.  On the day SPY gained 1.01%, DIA gained 0.52%, and QQQ gained 1.44%. The VXX fell 1.7% to 21.20 and T2122 remains deep in the overbought territory at 96.24.  10-year bond yields also fell sharply, dropping back below 3% to 2.889%, and Oil (WTI) dropped about 3.44% to $96.43/barrel (which was actually a rally up off the session lows).

In economic news, Weekly Initial Jobless claims came in significantly higher than expected (251k vs 240k forecast).  This was the highest level since mid-November.  Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index fell to -12.3, down 9 points from the prior month and much worse than the expected 1.6 value.  This was the lowest rating since May 2021.  Elsewhere, the ECB raised rates by half a percent (but for perspective, only to zero now since they were negative rates).  This was their first rate hike for 11 years and the largest hike since 2000.  As a result, the Euro strengthened against the Dollar.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In business news, after the close, AMZN agreed to buy primary care provider One Medical for $3.49 billion as the e-commerce giant continues its push into the healthcare sector.  Elsewhere, in a shock, Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International (located in Shanghai) has advanced its chipmaking technology by more than 2 generations.  They are now shipping 7-nanometer chips to Bitcoin miners.  This essentially guts US sanctions.  It could also make China a serious new competitor to western chipmakers like TSM, INTC, AMD, NVDA, QCOM, and SSNLF (import sanctions permitting). Finally, AXP raised its guidance on what it called resilient credit card usage.

On the Russian invasion story, Turkey announced that Ukraine and Russia will sign a deal today to reopen Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for grain exports.  Meanwhile, Ukraine asked its creditors for a two-year freeze on bond payments (in order to use its diminished resources on war efforts).  BLK is the largest holder of such bonds, holding $1.2 billion across its various funds.  AB is the second largest Ukrainian bond holder with $580 million while Pimco and Eaton Vance both hold around $300 million of the bonds.  Elsewhere, the EU announced another round of sanctions which included freezing the assets of Russia’s largest lender Sberbank.

After the close, MAT, UFPI, and WAL reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, WRB, PPG, RHI, and THC, missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, SNAP, STX, SIVB, SAM, and ISRG all missed on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again on modest moves.  South Korea (-0.66%) and Shenzhen (-0.49%) were the only appreciable losers.  On the other side, Malaysia (+1.07%), Singapore (+0.92%), and India (+0.69%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are mostly green on modest moves at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.22%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (+0.22%) are leading the region higher with only Belgium (-0.11%) and Finland (-1.22%) showing red at this point in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed open that leans toward the red.  The DIA implies a +0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.50% open at this hour.  10-year bonds are continuing that sharp fall at 2.809% and Oil (WTI) is off another 1.76% to $94.70/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday are limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AXP, ALV, CLF, GNTX, HCA, NEE, NHYDY, RF, ROP, SLB, TWTR, and VZ before the open.  There are no major reports after the close.

So far this morning, HCA, AXP, ALB, RF, and DNKEY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ALV, NEE, and ROP reported misses on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CLF and VZ beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

LTA Scanning Software

Once again, earnings remain the primary focus of markets today. Last night’s terrible miss by SNAP on horrific ad sales has the high-tech QQQ spooked. So, despite generally good results, the 3 major indices are looking leery in the premarket. PMI numbers may have an impact after the market opens. However, as of now, we look to open flat to modestly bearish again. Don’t be surprised if the intraday whipsaw action continues. Still if we look at the daily chart, it is clear the bulls have the momentum in the short-term with part of a gap still left to fill to the upside in the large-cap indices.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

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