On Friday, April Payrolls came in dramatically below expectations (+266k vs +1mil est.) and this led to a small gap higher with some follow-through the first hour. However, after that, the grind sideways (with even a bearish lean in the QQQ) lasted the rest of the day. This left the large-caps as big white candles that closed at new all-time highs, but the QQQ ended the day as a Doji still below the range of the previous 3 weeks. On the day, SPY gained 0.73%, DIA gained 0.69%, and QQQ gained 0.81%. The VXX lost more than 5.5% to 36.74 and T2122 spiked back well into the overbought territory at 92.78. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.579% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $64.82/barrel.
On Saturday, a ransomware cyberattack shut down the nations largest fuel pipeline network (which carries 45% of the fuel for the East Coast and Southeast US). While the pipeline company (Colonial Pipeline) is privately held, this report has had impacts across commodity prices, refiners, and other areas of the market. In addition, this attack likely is a follow-up on the supposedly Russian hack of SWI software in early 2020. As of Monday morning, much of the pipeline network remains shut down.
On Saturday night, the old “buy the rumor, sell the news” saying was proven again as Dogecoin fell 30% during Elon Musk’s late-night TV show appear. Must did mention the cryptocurrency in his opening monologue, but then said it was a “hustle.” That event crashed Robinhood crypto trading again as hordes of speculators tried to make it to the exit. On Sunday afternoon, perhaps in damage control mode, one of Musk’s other ventures, privately-held SpaceX announced it has named its Q122 mission “DOGE-1 Mission to the Moon” and will now accept Dogecoin as payment for lunar payloads. If nothing else, Musk certainly has the promotion routine down pat.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,476,781 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 595,812. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 40,686 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 662 per day. As of Sunday, CDC data shows that 58% of adults (and almost 46% of the entire population) have received at least one jab. Although encouraging, it is becoming harder to increase the numbers as vaccine hesitancy and complacency are now very high among those who are in the unvaccinated popluation.
Globally, the numbers rose to 159,030,410 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,308,346 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 777,228 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,853 new deaths per day. Spain partied Sunday as the country’s national curfew was lifted at midnight Saturday. Meanwhile, Asia remains the epicenter, with most if India under lockdown, Sri Lanka reporting record highs, Nepal closing hospital doors due to a lack of oxygen, and Pakistan feeling the impacts as well. In Japan, PM Suga said that although his country is reeling again, he will not cancel the Olympics again and if they are cancelled or pushed-back again it will be up to the Intl. Olympic Comm. to make that decision.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again on modest moves. South Korea (+1.63), Australia (+1.30%), and India (+0.80%) led to the upside while New Zealand (-0.56%), Singapore (-0.56%), and Taiwan (-0.29%) paced the losses. In Europe, we see the same mixed picture as of mid-morning. The FTSE (+0.06%), DAX (-0.19%), and CAC (-0.25%) are tropical of the continent, with Greece (+1.68%) an outlier at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed open on modest moves. The DIA is implying a +0.31% open, the SPY implying a flat +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.34% open.
There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. Major earnings reports on the day include APD, BNTX, DBD, DUK, ENR, ES, GTES, GEO, J, MAR, REV, SGMS, TGNA, TSN, USFD, VTRS, and WB before the open. Then, after the close, ADV, ACM, BHF, ELY, CAPL, G, IFF, NLOK, OXY, RXT, RBLX, SCSC, SPG, UWMC, and WYNN report.
The cyberattack on the US fuel infrastructure and news everywhere of skyrocketing prices seem to be the main drivers in early premarket trading. So, the bears may find some traction early this week. However, Friday's weak payroll number, and the blow-out earnings numbers we have seen imply that companies having cover for price increases may have a lot more to do with the situation than inflation. Regardless of this situation, we sit at all-time highs in a market that is technically extended. So, the bulls have had the short-term momentum but the bears have the reason in their corner today.
Remember, respect potential support and resistance levels and stay on the right side of the trend. Just keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Avoid chasing trades you have missed and don't let your emotions get the better of you. It is consistency that is the key to long-term trading success.
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NKLA, GM, TLRY, KBH, CLF, LUMN, AG. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
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🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
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🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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