Candlesticks Archives - Page 71 of 126

Extended Market, European Joy Lead Day

April 6, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about three-quarters of a percent on Monday as Mr. Market caught up for having missed the ability to trade after Friday’s blowout Jobs Report. All 3 major indices then saw some morning follow-through and a sideways grind all afternoon, leaving us with gap-up strong, white bullish candles. On the day, both the DIA and SPY closed at new all-time high closes and the QQQ is back within 1.5% of its own all-time high close. For the session, SPY closed +1.40%, DIA closed up 1.12%, and QQQ closed up 2.00%. The VXX fell again to 10.76 and T2122 drove deeper into overbought territory at 96.28. 10-year bond yields were flat at 1.713% and Oil (WTI) fell sharply (almost 4.5%) to $58.73/barrel.

During the day, the US Supreme court ruled in favor of GOOG in a decade-old, multi-billion-dollar copyright infringement case brought by ORCL. Perhaps unrelated, GOOG also announced Monday they will stop using ORCL enterprise planning software and migrate to competing products from ORCL’s bitter rival SAP. In other business news, after-hours US carmakers demanded that part of the infrastructure plan be money set aside for production of chips for use in vehicle production. They are saying the global chip shortage has caused a 1.3 million chip shortage for US car and light-truck production. Finally, Credit Suisse has fired their heads of Investment Banking and of Risk Management after announcing the company took a $4.7 billion loss from the implosion of US hedge Fund Archegos Capital.

China has asked bankers in that country to reduce lending for the remainder of 2021. While inflation has not been mentioned, the purported reason for the “request” is that a surge in lending the first 2 months of the year is leading to “risk bubbles” and the government is worried about systemic issues caused by those bubbles. In related news, overnight Treasury Bond yields dipped back below 1.70% ahead of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Opening survey for February.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,496,976 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 569,282. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 65,554 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 808 per day. The CDC reported Monday that over 40% of US adults and 75% of seniors have now received at least one dose of vaccine. The White House confirmed we will meet their goal of having enough vaccine for every American by the end of May. In fact, the President is set to announce he is moving up his deadline to have every American adult eligible for vaccine by 2 weeks (to April 19).

Globally, the numbers rose to 132,507,375 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,876,052 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 591,358 per day. Mortality, which lags, held roughly steady at 9,814 new deaths per day. The UK has announced it will ease covid restrictions per schedule starting April 12. In Asia, India has imposed curfews in the capitol region of Delhi amid another rise in cases. China has also instituted mass testing near the Myanmar border after 17 new cases (40-90 new cases since March 29) after a mass influx of refugees from the post-coup crackdown by the military junta. Japan is also strengthening restrictions in 3 of its prefectures as cases rise.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. Japan (-1.30%) paced the losses while Hong Kong (+1.97%) and Taiwan (+1.02%) led the gainers. In Europe, with the lone exception of Russia, markets are strongly green across the board. The FTSE (+1.19%), DAX (+1.15%), and CAC (+0.60%) are typical of the rest of the continent with only Russia (-0.59%) in the red at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly red open. The DIA is implying a -0.09% open, the SPY implying a -0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.25% open at this point.

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is the Feb. JOLTS report (10 am). The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day is PAYX before the open.

Overnight markets are giving us a mixed message. Asia is spooked by new virus surges and China telling banks to pull back on lending to avoid systemic risk, but Europe is still in love with the recovery story as signaled by last Friday’s blowout Jobs number in the US. Bond yields ticked lower, which has been a signal of less inflation fear recently. Yet, the fear we have run “too far too fast” remains as markets are extended after Monday’s big post-holiday sugar high. So, beware of volatility as both the bulls and bears have something to hang their hats on today.

Yes, the trend is strongly bullish. However, as extended as we are, this is one of those times where the advice we hammer repeatedly starts to make some sense. Keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline. You don’t succeed by looking to hit that grand-slam homerun. You succeed by continually hitting singles and doubles in the long run. So, take your profits when trade goals are met, stay on the right side of the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GBTC, FFIV, ANF, TPR, GM, F, MVIS, KSS, IBM, RIOT, UAA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Friday’s Jobs Report Driving in Premarket

April 5, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up Thursday, in particular the QQQ which gapped-up 1.3% following the overnight rollout of President Biden’s infrastructure plan and a higher-than-expected Weekly Jobless Claims number. After the open, all three major indices ground sideways the rest of the day. This ended in a ally to the highs the last half-hour of the day. This left us with a potential Hanging Man candle in the DIA and strong white bullish candles in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, DIA gained 0.38%, SPY gained to 1.08% (new all-time high), and QQQ gained 1.70%. The VXX lost another 3% to 11.05 and T2122 spiked back up deep into the overbought territory at 93.39. 10-year bond yield fell slightly (after again rising over night) to 1.714% and Oil (WTI) rose 3.5% to $61.24/barrel.

On Friday the Nonfarm Payrolls report for March came in 300,000 jobs better than was expected (at +916,000) as unemployment fell to 6%. January and February totals were also revised up by 150,000. In addition, CNBC also reported than their informal survey of economists are expecting spectacular growth in Q2 (they estimate a 10% average GDP growth). This may be great news for stock prices in Q2, but could also lead to inflation faster than has been expected…which may lead to Fed tightening faster than they have repeatedly claimed. So, as usual, there are arguments on either side of the market.

Over the weekend, TSLA announced it shipped 184,000 vehicles in Q1 while producing 180,000. All cars produced were Model 3 sedans or Model Y SUVs as production of Models S and X stopped. For reference, GM shipped 642,250, F shipped 521,350, and Stellantis (Dodge/Jeep) shipped 469,650 during the quarter. In other news, big Tech and social media companies are facing another PR nightmare as Sunday reports came out that details from about 500 million FB accounts have been found on the internet available to hackers. In another nightmare for a business, after denying it at first, AMZN admitted that their delivery and warehouse workers have been forced to urinate in bottles, because making a trip to a restroom would hurt their performance standards rating and impact their pay. In the admission, AMZN said this is a long-standing and industry-wide issue.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall plateau. The totals have risen to 31,420,331 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 568,777. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 63,471 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 833 per day. On Friday, the CDC said travel for fully-vaccinated and masked people is low risk. The Hospitality, Travel, and Tourism industries cheered loudly at this announcement. On Saturday, the CDC said a record 4.1 million vaccinations were administered and the 7-day average is now over 3 million/day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 131,993,083 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,867,681 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 585,951 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,822 new deaths per day. In South America, Chile has registered a record number of new cases each of the last several days. Brazil continues to see record numbers of covid deaths, but the ICU bed occupancy has started to lessen slightly (still over 90%) at least in Rio de Janeiro. In Europe, the UK has said the public can return to sporting events later in April and they will create a “fully vaccinated” travel passport. In less good news, the UK announced it has found 30 cases of blood clots (25 more than had previously been made public) after AZN vaccinations, which has renewed the debate over AZN vaccine safety in the UK and Europe.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Hong Kong (+1.97%) and Shenzhen (+1.02%) paced the gainers while India (-1.54%) and Thailand (-1.04%) led the losses. In Europe, Russia (-0.92%) is the only exception to green across the board (on modest moves) so far Monday. The FTSE (+0.35%), DAX (+0.66%), and CAC (0.59%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a solid green open after Friday’s blowout jobs report. The DIA is implying a +0.71% open, the SPY implying a +0.58% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.44% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Mar. Service PMI (9:45 am), Feb. Factory Orders and ISM Service PMI (both at 10 am). There are no major reports scheduled for the day.

Overnight markets seem to be pointing higher after huge gains in the Jobs Report delivered on Friday when the market was closed. Bond yields also ticked higher overnight, likely also reacting to the Jobs report and its implied potential for inflation. So, beware of volatility as both the bulls and bears have something to hang their hats on today.

With that said, the trend remains strongly bullish in the short and longer terms. So, follow the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CVX, WTI, GUSH, LUV, DVN, FANG, MRO, BKD, EOG, CSCO, TGT, ALLY, ANF, TRQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Infrastructure Plan and Unemployment

April 1, 2021 by Ed Carter

The large caps gapped slightly higher while the QQQ gapped up about half a percent. The large-caps then ground sideways the rest of the day while the QQQ saw some follow-through before starting its sideways grind at 11am. All three backed off the highs at the end of the day. This left all three with upper wicks. On the day, SPY gained 0.41%, DIA lost 0.19%, and QQQ gained 1.53%. The VXX fell again to 11.40 and T2122 roe a bit but remains in the mid-range at 60.29. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.739% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $59.39.

After the close, President Biden announced his $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan. It calls for $621 billion in transport infrastructure, $580 billion into manufacturing (R&D and job training), $300 billion for drinking water infrastructure, $300 billion into affordable housing construction, and $400 billion for care of elderly/disabled Americans. The primary way it proposes paying for the plan is the reversion of the Corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% (it was 35% through 2017).

In other government news, after hours, Treasury Sec. Yellen has restarted the hedge fund regulatory panel as part of an overhaul of financial regulation systems. Also included in the oversight mandate of this panel will be the Treasury bond, Mutual Fund, and Money Market segments of Wall Street. This came as the SEC also announced it has opened a probe into the Archegos fund that caused the massive block trades Friday-Tuesday due to margin call on that fund’s levered positions.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,166,344 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 565,256. The number of new cases has jumped higher again to an average of 65,308 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 932 per day. In vaccine news, a trial of the MRNA vaccine booster shot aimed at the South African variant is now underway. In addition, PFE announced that the ongoing Phase 3 trial has shown its vaccine protection lasts at least 6 months (better than the 90-day estimate the company originally offered) and also appears to be 91% effective against the South African variant. In other related news, GOOG also announced that it is speeding up reopening offices and will put limits on future remote work. DAL also told reporters that it is eliminating empty middle seats due to a surge in air travel demand.

Globally, the numbers rose to 129,606,380 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,830,726 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 575,440 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 10,041 new deaths per day. French President Macron called for another national lockdown as cases have spikes. Meanwhile Austria is signing a deal to buy 1 million doses of the Russian Sputnik vaccine amid AZN deadline misses and general vaccine shortages.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board, with the lone exception of New Zealand (-0.58%). Hong Kong (+1.97%), Shenzhen (+1.46%), and India (+1.20%) led the gainers, but the surge was about two-thirds of a percent on average. In Europe, we see green all the way across the board so far today. Some of the smaller exchanges are running faster, but the FTSE (+0.49%), DAX (+0.35%), and CAC (+0.25%) are fairly typical of the continent at this hour. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to a green, if uneven, open. The DIA (+0.02%) is flat, while the SPY is implying a +0.28% open and the QQQ is implying a +0.95% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to KMX before the open. There are no major reports after the close.

Bond rates came down significantly overnight but remain above 1.71%. With only Weekly Jobless Claims to come as a different driver, the market action today may be a referendum on the specifics of the President’s proposed infrastructure plan or the tax scheme that is proposed to pay for that investment. So, beware of volatility.

As we always say, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline. Be sure to follow your trading rules, follow the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. And if you don’t have an edge (like being on the right side of a trend), then think twice before trading.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Infrastructure Plan On Tap Today

March 31, 2021 by Ed Carter

The indecisive chop continued Tuesday with a modest gap-down in the large-caps and a half percent gap-down in the QQQ. After that, all three traded in a volatile range the remainder of the day. It is worth noting that the markets did see a last-minute rally (most likely on the clearance of dark pool trades). All 3 major indices were indecisive, printing Doji candles, but the downtrend remains in tact across those indices. On the day, SPY lost 0.27%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost 0.50%. The VXX fell over 4% to 11.49 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 52.54. 10-year bond yields backed off from overnight 14-month highs to close at 1.71% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $60.45/barrel.

After hours, it was announced that President Biden will lay out his infrastructure and economic plans on Wednesday. As previously noted, the plan separates the health and child care portions of the Administration’s domestic policy. So, it will focus on roads, bridges, railways, and waterways. However, it will also include modest “green” energy infrastructure proposals and probably most important for market sentiment, the tax proposals to pay for the plan. This is expected to include an increase in corporate tax rates from 21% to 27%.

Also, after hours, the AMZN warehouse union vote in Alabama has now ended. The National Labor Relations Board has begun reviewing the eligibility of the 5,800 votes and ballot counting is expected to begin early next week and last a few days. Still, ballot objections, procedural, and legal challenges and are expected to last quite some time before a decision on the outcome of the vote is known.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,097,154 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 564,138. The number of new cases has jumped higher again to an average of 65,012 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 977 per day. The CDC reported after the close that nearly 50% of US seniors are fully vaccinated now. AR finally joined the rest of the nation and now all 50 states have announced schedules to open vaccinations to all adults. However, at the same moment AR Gov. Hutchinson also lifted the statewide mask mandate. Finally, early today PFE announced that its vaccine is 100% effective and well tolerated in kids 12-15 years of age.

Globally, the numbers rose to 128,932,176 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,818,762 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 564,934 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,790 new deaths per day. Germany limited the AZN vaccine to people over the age of 60 on Tuesday over blood clot fears. New cases and hospitalizations are rising again in CA, leading to the Ontario Premier to tell people “don’t make plans for Easter.”

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board. Malaysia (-2.22%), Indonesia (-1.42%), and India (-1.04%) led the losses, but all the major exchanges were also down just less than a percent. The only exceptions were Australia (+0.78%) and New Zealand (+0.92%). In Europe, we are seeing much more of a mixed bag so far today. At this point, the majority of exchanges are modestly red or modestly green. The exceptions are Denmark (+1.99%) and Spain (+1.59%). However, FTSE (-0.22%), DAX (-0.02%), and DAD (-0.24%) are more typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed, but modestly green open. The large-caps are flat with the DIA implying a -0.10% open and the SPY implying a +0.07% open. However, the QQQ is showing modest gains, implying a +0.56% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), Feb. Pending Home Sales (10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to AYI and WBA before the open. Then after the close, GES and MU report.

It was also reported that a slight drop in mortgage rates for the week did nothing to reverse the downtrend in financing activity, which will bleed through to banks and housing names. While there is not a lot of other economic data scheduled for today, the new infrastructure plan (and its payment mechanisms) announcement may have markets waiting on more direction. So, beware of volatility.

If you are trading in this choppy market, be sure to follow your rules, follow the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success, not hitting massive winners once in a while. So, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bond Yields Up Again As Q1 Winds Down

March 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down modestly on Monday and followed-up with a selloff the first hour. However, this gave way to a late morning rally and an afternoon of more volatility. This left us with indecisive days in the SPY (Spinning Top) and QQQ (Doji) with the DIA being more positive. On the day, SPY closed down 0.05%, QQQ down 0.03%, and the DIA up 0.32% (closing at an all-time high close). The VXX rose over 2% to 12.01 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 68.12. Bond yields spiked again as the 10-year yield ended at 1.712% and Oil (WTI) rose over 1% to $61.64/barrel.

In miscellaneous business news, after the close, CNBC reported that TSLA has been double charging some customers for cars and are so far having trouble responding to refund demands. Earlier in the day the Suez Canal was cleared but experts expect it to take a week for the 400-ship backlog to be cleared in the waterway that 15% of global trade passes through. In the air sector, LUV placed an order for 100 of the troubled BA 737 Max plane. Finally, as the quarter winds down, Monday saw more huge dark-pool block trades by the big banks. Today it was WFC making a $2 billion block trade and MS another $500 million block trade. This follows up on $10.5 billion trades by GS, $13 billion by MS, and $20 billion by Achegos Capital (brought on by margin calls from banks on their over-levered positions) Friday that caused massive volatility in some tickers.

Overnight the 10-year bond yield spiked to a 14-month high of 1.77%. This may be a catalyst for inflation fear and the bears to step into markets today. Japan’s largest bank also warned of a $300 million loss tied to the fund at the bottom of the massive block trades the last few days. However, it appears the major US banks have dodged big losses on the situation so far.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,033,801 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 563,206. The number of new cases has jumped higher again to an average of 64,552 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 988 per day. President Biden urged states to reinstate mask mandates on Monday. This came after CDC Dir. Walensky went off script and warned of “impending doom” as she is scared the trends are going up again and way too many states are opening up too soon. The CDC also extended the eviction moratorium until June 30. On the bright side, the President said that more than 90% of adults in the US will be eligible for vaccination by April 19, with AR being the only state that has not set the timeline for expanding eligibility to all adults. The US has also administered more than 3 million vaccination per day over each of the four days.

Globally, the numbers rose to 128,341,355 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,806,709 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 557,315 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,707 new deaths per day. Brazil announced a troubling trend, with more young people contracting covid (a 500% increase in the 30-39 age group, +600% in the 40-49 group). JNJ announced it will ship Europe 200 million doses during April. However, Germany will now require a negative test to enter their country.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green, with a couple exceptions like Australia (-0.90%) and Indonesia (-1.55%). India (+2.33%) far outpaced the region with Shenzhen (+0.85%), Shanghai (+0.62%), and Taiwan (+0.48%) being more typical leaders. In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape so far today. Only Russia, Finland, and Denmark are negative and even then, basically flat. Meanwhile, the rest of the continent is modestly green. The FTSE (+0.19%), DAX (+0.63%), and CAC (+0.52%) are typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are red across the board, but also diverging. The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY implying a -0.33% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.79% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to ASO and MKC before the open. Then after the close, CHWY, LULU, and PVH report.

Bond yields are up significantly again overnight, which may well give the bears some strength as inflation fear and the underlying unease about massive block trades makes traders nervous. However, the bulls are not likely to give up easily with the DIA at all-time highs and the SPY less than half a percent for blue sky. So, be prepared for volatility today as the quarter continues to wind down.

We’ve said it many times, successful long-run trading means accepting that there are times when it’s best to sit on the sidelines. For me, times of a choppy market are at the top of that list. You have to decide for yourself if today is one of those days for you. Regardless, follow your trading rules, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Rates Up Overnight And Futures Mixed

March 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

The large-caps gapped down about four-tenths of a percent and the QQQ gapped down about six-tenths at the open. Then we saw another roller-coaster ride in the QQQ, while the large-caps made a jagged rally most of the day. This left us with a Bullish Engulfing candle in the DIA, and Piercing Candle in the SPY, and an indecisive Spinning Top in the QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.56%, DIA gained 0.65%, and QQQ lost 0.17%. The VXX fell 3% to 12.23 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold territory to 38.57. 10-year bond yields rose a bit to 1.631% and Oil (WTI) fell 4.5% to $58.44/barrel, this was odd because Brent fell sharply as the Suez Canal remains shut and 150 ships are already stacked up waiting to traverse (Europe gets most of its oil via tanker that passes through the canal, or takes at least a week longer to go around Africa).

Premarket, Fed Chair Powell told CNBC the obvious, that someday after substantial improvements, the Fed will start becoming less dovish. That plus a significant beat on the Jobless Claims and Q4 GDP fronts was enough to cause the gap-downs. Later, after-hours, the Fed also set the date (June 30) when big banks can begin buybacks and issue larger dividends. However, any bank that fails a stress test must wait until September 30 and would face higher capitalization requirements.

In other business news, the impacts of the global chip shortage continue to spread. Chinese electric car maker NIO is shutting its factory for a week due to the shortage. Congress also slammed the CEOs of FB, TWTR, and GOOG Thursday. This time the attacks were focused on failure to better stop “misinformation” related to election fraud, covid, and vaccines. The CEOs all rejected responsibility, putting the blame on former-President Trump and the general political divide of the country.

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,774,033 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 559,744. The number of new cases has ticked-up again to an average of 58,866 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 968 per day. CA, CT, and NC joined the growing list of states that are opening vaccine to all adults. President Biden has raised the goal to 200 million vaccinations within the first 100 days of his administration. This should be achievable as the country is averaging over 2.5 million vaccinations per day and the AZN vaccine is likely to be approved for emergency use soon.

Globally, the numbers rose to 126,193,313 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,769,455 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 524,097 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,073 new deaths per day. After-hours the EU announced that AZN must meet its vaccine commitments to Europe before being allowed to export any more elsewhere. Likewise, India has banned vaccine exports for the time being. This came as 3 additional regions of France went back into lockdown. In South American, Chile went back into lockdown, Peru recorded its highest number of cases so far, and Brazil reported another record number of Covid deaths Thursday.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly green, with the lone exceptions of India. Shenzhen (+2.60%), Shanghai (+1.63%), and Japan (+1.56%) led the way. In Europe, markets are also green across the board at mid-day Friday. The FTSE (+0.72%), DAD (+0.75%), and CAC (+0.49%) are typical with a few smaller exchanges up over one percent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed and more muted open. The DIA is implying a +0.32% open, the SPY implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.19% open at this point of the morning.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Feb. Goods Trade Balance and Feb. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Feb. PCE Price Index and Feb. Personal Spending (both at 9:30 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and US Federal Budget (2 pm). There are no major earnings reports on the day Friday.

Bond yields are up significantly again overnight, now approaching 1.68% on the 10-year. With inflation being the primary focus of the markets lately, that may mean we’ll see another reversal today. In either case, if you were watching the candle signals in the major indices on Thursday, remember that candle signals require follow-through. So, don’t chase reversals without that confirmation. Keep exercising some caution and prudence.

We’ve said it many times. You don’t have to trade every day. Keep your FOMO under control and consider whether you really want to be in that group of traders who’ve had their accounts smacked in the chop of the last couple weeks. Successful long-run trading means accepting that there are times when it’s best to sit on the sidelines. And for me, times when we have a choppy market are at the top of that list. So, follow your trading rules. If you are trading, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline. Also remember it’s Friday, so don’t forget to get your account ready for the weekend news cycle and to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FDX, AN, IDT, OKE, HPE, GSM, SEEL, NUE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobless Claims, GDP and AZN Data Revision

March 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about four-tenths of a percent Wednesday. At that point, the large-caps roller-coastered sideways until early afternoon. However, the QQQ started a jagged selloff that lasted over the same period. Then all three major indices synced-up and sold off the entire afternoon, closing on the lows. This left the DIA in a black Inverted Hammer candle and the other two major indices just as big, ugly black candles. That said, all 3 remain in the recent range and still not far from all-time highs. So, we’re still just in the chop. On the day, the SPY lost 0.51%, the DIA was flat at +0.01%, and QQQ lost 1.69%. The VXX gained a bit under 1% to 12.61 and T2122 fell again, now well into oversold territory at 10.57. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.608% and Oil (WTI) came back over 5.4% to $60.90/barrel.

During the day the big “reopening” plays (such as travel-related stocks) took a hit when the CDC said that cruise restrictions will remain in place until at least November 1. The new surges in Europe, Asia and South America may also have dampened outlooks. Still, it was the big tech names that led the fall with mega-cap FAANG names taking a big hit. As was expected, not much real news came from the second day of testimony by Treasury Sec. Yellen and Fed Chair Powell. However, Yellen did say she supports the Fed decision to allow big banks to do stock buybacks and that the bigger banks look healthier now than when the Fed had previously blocked buybacks. This led to a clash between her and Senator Warren over BlackRock, which Warren wants to be classified “too big to fail” and regulated more tightly.

The SBA says it will triple Covid recovery loans (maximum $150,000) starting April 6. On the opposite side of the coin, after hours, AAL terminated its government loan after raising $10 billion by selling bonds. In related news, JBLU is calling back more flight attendants as travel is picking up again.

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,704,292 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 558,422 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases has ticked-up again to an average of 58,269 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 999 per day. A study of 1,100 discharged patients has found that 70% of people that were hospitalized for COVID-19 had not fully recovered even 5 months after release from the hospital. The CDC reported that it is encouraged by the pace of increase in vaccinations, but is worried about the pace of restriction-easing and poorly-behaving crowds such as large groups of Spring Breakers congregating to party as well as the up-tick in cases. AZN also revised its data reported to the CDC, lowering their efficacy claim to 76% from 79% after being challenged on the timeliness and accuracy of the data.

Globally, the numbers rose to 125,542,273 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,758,757 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 513,085 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,046 new deaths per day. Germany made the surprise announcement to reverse course and open up the country over the Easter holiday weekend. Elsewhere in Europe, the EU has changed its laws to allow it to block export of vaccines (particularly PFE-BTNX and AZN). This comes as AZN is behind in shipments to the EU and the UK has not exported any vaccine to the EU.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. Japan (+1.14%) was by far the largest gainer with India (-1.54%) seeing by far the largest loss. Most of the region saw small to moderate moves in either direction. In Europe, markets are also mixed, but lean heavily red on modest trading so far today. The FTSE (-0.22%), DAX (-0.21%), and CAC (-0.19%) are typical, with some smaller exchanges remaining green. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open just on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a +0.06% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying +0.07% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Q4 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), and a number of Fed speakers (Williams at 5:30 am, Clarida at 10:10 am, Bostic at noon, and Daly at 7 pm). Major earnings reports before the open include ARKO, DOOO, CL, DRI, MOMO, and BTU. Then after the close YY and SAIC report.

With Powell and Yellen testimonies done, for now, all eyes will be watching the Q4 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims for some direction on how the economy is doing. However, these volatile chopping markets are not likely to take a new trend from that backward-looking data or from the flurry of Fed speakers today. So, continue to watch out for the intraday and intraweek swings we’ve been suffering from recently. Keep exercising some caution and prudence.

As I’ve said before, remember that you don’t have to trade every day. A successful trading for the long run needs to accept that there are times it is best to sit on the sidelines…and for me, times of high chop are at the top of that list. So, if you are trading, follow the trend according to your trading horizon, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UBER, TMO, XLNX, KLAC, PYPL, NVDA, SMH, XLK, QQQ, SNPS, MPWR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More Testimony and INTC Makes A Move

March 24, 2021 by Ed Carter

The chop continued as markets opened mildly higher on Tuesday and then proceeded to roller-coaster until 3pm. However, a late day selloff took all three major indices out near the lows. This left us with large black-body candles with upper wicks across the three. On the day, SPY lost 0.79%, DIA lost 0.97%, and QQQ lost 0.44%. The VXX rose over 5.5% to 13.15 and T2122 fell dramatically to 12.50. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.622% and Oil (WTI) fell dramatically (6.5%) to $57.38/barrel.

Treasury Sec. Yellen and Fed Chair Powell had their first of two days of joint testimony on Capitol Hill. They told the House Financial Services Committee that stocks were “elevated,” but that they were not concerned about financial market stability. Powell also stressed that whenever the Fed decides it’s time to dial back asset purchases or other monetary easing measures, they will go slowly and communicate the coming change well in advance of taking action. However, that time is not now and they still want to see more substantial moves toward their goal of full employment.

After the close, INTC said it will spend $20 billion to build two new Fabs in AZ to build chips to compete (selling to other companies) with TSM, which had previously announced it would spend $35 billion to Fab plants in AZ. In the same industry, a week ago SSNNF (Samsung) had also said it would spend $14 billion to build a Fab plant somewhere in the US by 2023. All of these companies are chasing the global shortage of chips. However, there is also the risk that as the industry ramps production to meet pandemic/upgrade-cycle demand, that demand may fall after upgrades are complete and if the economy shifts back away from at-home work. (As always, the risk of a just-in-time supply chain is the inability to adapt to take advantage of surge demand, but excess capacity is dead weight on any company’s books.)

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,636,534 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 556,883 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases has ticked-up again to an average of 57,661 new cases per day. However, new deaths continue to fall to 945 per day (first time below 1,000 since October). In some good news, the CDC reports the US is now administering 2.5 million shots per day of the vaccine. The White House also announced there will be 27 million doses shipped to the states this week (up from 22 million the week before). In other good news, GA, TX, OK, and other states joined the group that will allow all adults to receive the vaccine very soon. In other hopeful, but maybe not good news, more states are easing restrictions which expands the exposure risks.

Globally, the numbers rose to 124,919,952 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,748,590 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 500,528 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 8,932 new deaths per day. Germany expanded its lockdown until mid-April as a surge in cases is underway. The WHO reports that cases are rising in many regions as a wave based mostly on variants is underway. Elsewhere, on Tuesday, Brazil reported its highest number of Covid deaths again (breaking above 3,000/day for the first time) and India also reported the most deaths it has seen in 2021. In other bad news, Hong Kong has suspended use of the PFE-BNTX vaccine due to an unspecified packaging defect.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned strongly red. Japan (-2.04%), Hong Kong (-2.03%), and Shenzhen (-1.47%) led the losses. However smaller exchanges such as Malaysia (+0.45%) and Thailand (+0.42%) managed to stay green. In Europe, markets are following Asia with the larger exchanges in the red and smaller exchanges staying in the green so far today. The FTSE (-0.15%) and CAC (-0.10%) are just on the down side of flat, but the DAX (-0.41%) is picking up steam to the downside at mid-day. As of 7:30am, US Futures are still pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a +0.42% open while the SPY implies a +0.44% open and the QQ is leading the way implying a +0.82% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Feb. Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am), Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (9:45 am), Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Sec. Yellen testify (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a couple of other Fed speakers (Williams at 1:45 pm and Daly at 3 pm). Major earnings reports before the open are limited to ESLT, GIS, TCEHY, WGO, and WOR. Then after the close CNCX, FUL, KBH, and RH report.

Powell and Yellen are unlikely to say anything in their statements that were not said to the House yesterday, However, the questions asked and answers given always poses the possibility of news. With inflation being the intense focus of markets recently, there may be more waiting on them to finish (usually early afternoon) in the market today. Either way, watch out for the intraday swings and volatility we’ve been seeing in recent weeks. Exercise some caution and prudence.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Warren Buffett’s first rule of making a lot of money is to not lose a lot of money. In other words, know when it’s best to sit on the sidelines…and for me, times of high chop are at the top of that list. So, follow the trend according to your trading horizon, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas for Wednesday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Yield Tumble and AZN News May Help Bulls

March 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened blah on Friday and then ground sideways in a tight range all day, up until a late-day selloff. This left indecisive Doji and Spinning Top in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, DIA lost 1.02%, SPY lost 0.51%, and QQQ gained 0.35%. The VXX fell 4% to 12.77 and T2122 rose a bit, but remains in the mid-range at 60.53. After having risen during pre-market, 10-year bond rates were flat at 1.73% on the day, and Oil also gained strongly overnight, but was flat on the day at $61.42/barrel.

Over the weekend, CP agreed to buy KSU for $25 billion in the rail space. In Oil, Saudi Aramco announced earnings 44% down for 2020, but decided to maintain its $75 billion dividend and it remains the world’s most profitable company. Finally, after completing its $100 billion media deal, the NFL also working on a $100-$250 million data deal to provide play-by-play statistics to sports betting companies.

Early today, Richmond Fed President Barkin (voting member) told a conference in Europe “the US is on the brink of completing its recovery.” However, he fears economic scarring left by the year-long crisis will suppress growth prospects in the medium and longer-term. (The US economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, but is estimated to grow 6.5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 according to both Fed and OECD, a non-US expert source.) Barkin’s main “scarring” concerns are parents who left the workforce (especially mothers), small businesses having closed, and working off the tremendous Federal Debt.

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,521,774 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 555,314 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases has plateaued at an average of 55,630 new cases per day. However, new deaths continue to fall to 1,048 per day. In bad news, Covid cases are rising again in 21 states. Meanwhile, in Miami Beach, Spring Breakers packed the streets (mostly unmasked) and rioted when police tried to break up crowds. However, in more hopeful news, AZN released a new US-based trial of their vaccine that showed 79% efficacy (but like the JNJ, PFE, and MRNA vaccines, 100% effective against severe symptoms and hospitalization).

Globally, the numbers rose to 123,935,536 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,729,028 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 481,856 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 8,756 new deaths per day. Greece has drafted private doctors to help the strained medical system after a public plea resulted in few volunteering. With a major lack of vaccine in the EU, EU Commissioner Von der Leyen told AZN, “first fulfill your contract with Europe before you start delivering to other countries.” So, the argument with the UK is now hot again. Germany is seeking a lockdown extension as cases are rising again in the country’s third wave. In Asia, India reported a spike with the most new cases of any day since November.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned strongly red again. Japan (-2.07%) and India (-1.49%) led the losses while Shanghai (+1.14%) and Shenzhen (+1.14%) are among the few bright spots. However, in Europe, markets are mostly green on modest trading with only 2 showing any red so far this morning. The FTSE (+0.10%), DAX (+0.23%), and CAC (-0.23%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to another mixed and modest open. The DIA is just on the red side of flat at -0.04%, while the SPY (+0.20%) is implying a slightly higher open, and the QQQ (+0.80%) is implying a moderate gap higher.

The no major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Feb. Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open are limited to ZIM. Then after the close SNX and TME report.

Although today’s news is limited, Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Sec. Yellen jointly-testify before Congress on both Tuesday and Wednesday this week. So, there may be some waiting today for more direction from those two Monetary and Fiscal leaders. However, 10-year yields fell significantly overnight, which may fuel the bulls. In addition, gaps and volatility have been the hallmarks of the past few days, where intraday swings of more than 1.5% have been the norm. And we still sit just a couple percent from the all-time highs. So, exercise caution and prudence.

Follow the trend for your trading horizon, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PFE, QS, DAC, BOOT, CSAH, FDX, MVIS, KOPN, STKL, MGNI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Meeting With China Has A Rocky Start

March 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

The major indices were divergent most of the day Thursday. The QQQ gapped down 1.6%, while the SPY gapped down 0.7% and the DIA opened barely lower at -0.15%. This continued as the DIA rallied all morning, while the SPY and QQQ ground sideways. However, all 3 got back in-sync the last two hours with a strong sell-off. This left the DIS as a Bearish Harami and all 3 major indices as ugly black candles. On the day, DIA lost 0.43%, the SPY lost 1.43%, and QQQ lost a whopping 3.06%. The VXX gained 5.5% and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 57.14. 10-year bond yields (which had spiked overnight Wednesday to 1.75%) fell back to 1.706% and Oil (WTI) got crushed, dropping almost 8% to $59.53/barrel on dollar strength and fear over inflation.

In business news, the NFL signed a $105 billion, 11-year media deal. This saw AMZN make its first step into live broadcasting as it purchased exclusive rights to Thursday NFL games starting in 2022. DG announced plans to expand by opening 1,000 new stores, remodeling 1,750 stores, and relocate 100 others all in the coming year as it pushes its more upscale chain “Popshelf.” PTON suffered a PR setback as CEO Foley addressed press after the company warned owners of their treadmills to keep children away after an accident resulted in a child’s death. A SPCE engineer plead guilty to insider trading (using the dark web) during Thursday evening. Finally, F announced it will have to cut shifts and only partially build pickups and SUVs due to the global chip shortage.

The first US-China meeting since President Biden took office got underway Thursday night. It started with a bang as each side accused the other of various things and both then declaring the other side was grandstanding. With that said, this is expected to be an important first meeting as the world’s two largest economies try to reset relations and lay groundwork to work together on many issues such as direct trade, climate change, and various geopolitical problems that can all effect trade. It can be argued the meeting is of more importance to the US, because we’ve ceded our place as the global leader in free trade to the Chinese in recent years. That is to say, the US has pulled out of many trade agreements, freely used tarriffs and embargos, and undermined the WTO, while China has concluded major regional trade deals with Asia, the middle-east, Africa, and many bilateral country-specific deals. This likely stems from the Chinese longer-term approach (versus the US short-term outlook) as part of their “belt and road” initiative pointed toward mid-century world economic dominance.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,358,880 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 552,470 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases rose slightly to an average of 55,787 new cases per day. Deaths rose very slightly also to 1,188 per day. President Biden said that the country would hit his initial goal of 100 million vaccinations today (58 days into his tenure). NJ rained indoor occupancy restrictions to 50% for gyms, restaurants, personal care businesses, etc. effective immediately. The US said it will also start relaxing covid travel restrictions in May.

Globally, the numbers rose to 122,481,607 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,705,298 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 458,220 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 8,684 new deaths per day. Europe’s Medicines Agency categorically stated that the AZN vaccine was safe and effective on Thursday. As a result, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and others all announced plans to resume distributing the AZN vaccine. However, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have decided to wait before restarting that rollout. Meanwhile, France announced a 4-week lockdown of Paris after spikes in UK-variant cases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned strongly red. India (+1.28%) was the lone standout on the green side, but Shenzhen (-2.56%), Shanghai (-1.69%), and Japan (-1.41%) were much more typical of the region. In Europe, we see red across the board so far today, with the lone holdout being Portugal (+0.74%). The FTSE (-0.93%), DAX (-0.68%), and CAC (-0.70%) are all in the red. As of 7:45 am, US futures are flat to green. The DIA is implying a +0.03% open, the SPY implying a +0.16% open, and the QQQ implying a 0.46% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Friday. Major earnings reports before the open are limited to include ERJ. Then after the close there are no reports at all.

With no news planned, the market will have its eyes on inflation and to a lesser extent the US-China meetings. After the post-few whipsaw of the last couple of days, interest rates pulled back just a bit overnight to less than 1.7% on the 10-year note. However, this is tempered by the bickering coming out of the meetings in Alaska. Going into a weekend, with inflation fears and the two main economic superpowers arguing, I think the bulls want to pair losses, but caution may rule the day. Do not be surprised if traders take profits at least later in the day.

Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain discipline. As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Finally, remember it’s Friday, payday. So, take some money off the table to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching