Monday was a “fade the gap” kind of day with a modest gap higher at the open met with all-day selling, closing near the lows.  The SPY printed a Bearish Engulfing candle and the DIA printed a Bear Engulfing of a Doji.  However, all 3 major indices stayed in their recent consolidation ranges.  On the day, the SPY lost 0.20%, the DIA lost 0.32%, and QQQ gained 0.01% after having gapped up a bit more than the large-cap indices.  The VXX gained almost 4% t o31.34 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 52.07.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.174% and Oil (WTI) dropped 3.45% to $71.40/barrel.

During the day there was a bit of news on the virus front.  The 7-day average of new cases in the US has reached almost 73,000 again (surpassing last summer’s peak). While hospital space is an issue in some areas (for example, only 7 available ICU beds for 3 million people in Austin TX and the state of LA report they’ve reached the highest level of hospitalization since the start of the pandemic), fortunately, death rates have not spiked with cases (7-day average is at 317/day).  The White House announced the country had reached the goal of 70% of adults being at least partially vaccinated, albeit about a month later than the goal. 

After the close, Fed (voting) member Waller told CNBC that he could see the possibility of a reduction in bond-buying activity starting as soon as October.  However, he would need to see strong jobs reports in August and September before he agreed to any such tightening.  As with other members of the FOMC, he said that the data the Fed is seeing continues to indicate that inflation is transitory, but that there is some evidence this might not be the case.

It has started off as another good day on the earnings front.  However, it is notable that there are more misses today than any day so far this earnings season.  Chief among those misses were LLY (came in short on the bottom line) and CLX (missed on both lines and guided lower as it says the pandemic surge has passed.  However, there are still plenty of beats, including COP and PSX in the oil space, UAA and RL in clothing, and DISCA in finance. In non-earnings news, PEP announced it will sell its juice brands, including Tropicana to a French private equity firm for $3.3 billion.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on modest moves.  Japan (-0.50%), Shanghai (-0.47%), and Shenzhen (-0.41%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, India (+1.55%), Thailand (+1.01%), and Indonesia (+0.56%) led the gainers.  However, in Europe, markets are green across this board so far today.  The FTSE (+0.30%) and DAX (+0.20%) are typical of the continent, with the CAC (+0.98%) being an outlier to the upside.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed, but modestly green open.  The DIA is implying a +0.46% open, the SPY implying a +0.34% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.09% open.  10-year bond prices are also up and the dollar down in early trading Tuesday.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to June Factory Orders (10 am) and a Fed speaker (Bowman at 2 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BABA, ATI, AME, ARNC, BHC, BCC, BP, BHG, CWH, CLX, COP, CRSR, DISCA, DD, DNB, ETN, SATS, LLY, EXPD, FNMA, FIS, FCNCA, BEN, IT, HSC, HSIC, INCY, INGR, IGT, J, KKR, LHX, LCII, LGIH, LDI, LPX, MAR, NVT, OMI, PSX, PBI, PEG, RL, SEE, SUN, BLD, UAA, VNTR, WMG, WAT, WEC, WLK, WLTW, XYL, ZBRA, and ZBH before the open.  Then after the close, ATVI, AKAM, AFG, AMGN, ANDE, AIZ, CAR, CZR, CNR, CW, DK, DVN, ET, ENLC, NVST, FMC, FNF, FRG, HLF, HST, H, JAZZ, KAR, LYV, LYFT, MCY, OI, OXY, OKE, PAA, PRIM, PRU, PSA, RGA, TX, UNM, and XP report.

Jitters over the resurgence of Covid at the same time the economy may have already reached peak recovery mode and stimulus is fading has markets concerned. However, it would be quite a stretch to say we are seeing any panic. Markets seem to want to open Tuesday inside of yesterday’s candle…just in the consolidation area. So, again the trend remains bullish and all 3 major indices remain very near their all-time highs. This is letting the moving averages catch up and is a healthy thing for a trend.

Don’t get caught trying to predict the market. Nobody ever made a consistent living calling the top (or bottom). Remember, trading success is about winning more than you lose by following trend and price action and then keeping your losses small while consistently taking profits when you have them. You don’t need to call the turn or have all triple-digit gain trades. So, don’t chase price, predict turns, and above all, stick to your trading rules. Discipline will see you through. Focus on the process and managing what you can control.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TEVA, PSTG, JETS, LEVI, QID, RIOT, GLW. Rick is out but the RWO Room is open. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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