Inauguration and Earnings

Markets gapped up Tuesday after coming back from a long weekend and getting good pre-market earnings from the major banks, including a blow-out quarter from GS.  After the gap up, the major indices traded indecisively with the QQQ being the strongest of the group.  On the day, QQQ was up 1.46%, SPY up 0.79%, and DIA up 0.39%.  VXX lost more than 2.75%, down to 16.63 and T2122 jumped back into the overbought territory at 85.41.  10-year bond yields were off slightly to 1.092% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.32% to close at $53.05/barrel.

During her confirmation hearings Tuesday afternoon, Treasury Sec. Nominee Yellen told Senators that the US can afford higher corporate taxes, but only after coming out of the Coronavirus slump and only in coordination with other countries.  Specifically, she said tax rate action should be coordinated with other OECD to avoid “a destructive global race to the bottom on corporate taxation of multinationals.” She also defended the $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal by saying it offers the “most bang for the buck” in terms of relief for struggling households and businesses.  Finally, she said the Biden Administration would support a strong and stable dollar (in direct contrast to the Trump who liked the idea of a weak dollar).  The market did not respond to her testimony in any meaningful way.

Interest rates rose again in the last week (to a still-low 2.92% for a 30-year fixed mortgage), but remains almost a percent lower than it was one year ago.   This came as new mortgage applications dropped almost 2% and refinance demand fell 5% on the week.  It is worth noting that President Biden has proposed a $15,000 tax credit for first time home buyers to help bolster the home construction industry.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 24809,841 confirmed cases and 411,520 deaths.  This comes as the average new cases have fallen to 204,228 new cases and deaths have flattened at 3,098 per day.  The CDC reports that 13.6 million Americans have received at least one shot of the two required to date.  This includes 2 million people who have received both doses.  At the same time, distribution problems continue to plague the rollout.  Several states are a few days from being out of the vaccine while more than 12 million doses are still in Federal hands, but not at the locations needed.

Globally, the numbers rose to 96,727,446 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,068,303 deaths.  As a reference, the world average new cases is down to 656,402 per day, but deaths remain high at over 13,460 new deaths per day.  In Europe, a third cabinet member of the Portuguese government has tested positive in just this week.  Germany tightened restrictions (now mandating N95 mask-wearing in public) and extended the national lockdown until at least mid-February.  UK Home Sec. Patel told reporters its far too early to think about easing lockdown measures.  In China, a new outbreak has the country scrambling, including building a 4,000-bed isolation camp in just a week.  This happens as China is seeing its worst outbreak in months and tens of millions of Chinese people have been put on strict lockdown in the North of the country.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly higher.  Shenzhen (+1.42%), Hong Kong (+1.08%), and Indonesia (+1.71%) led the gainers.  Notable losses include Japan (-0.38%) and Taiwan (-0.45%).  Meanwhile, in Europe, so far today markets are also mostly higher on modest moves.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE -0.03% is flat, the SAD (+0.47%) is up, and the CAC (+0.24%) is also positive.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a higher open.  The DIA is implying a +0.15% open, while the SPY implies a +0.38% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.82% open.

The only major economic news for Wednesday is President Biden’s Inauguration and Speech (Crude Oil Inventories Report moved to Friday).  Major earnings reports on the day include ASML, BK, CFG, FAST, MS, PG, USB and UNH all before the open. Then, after the close, AA, DFS, KMI, PLXS, and UAL report.

Markets seem to like the new administration and continue to aim toward record highs. With 25,000 troops plus thousands of Federal Law Enforcement on hand, protests, riots, or attacks at inauguration events seem unlikely. So, the bulls continue to have the edge as we look to the open. (It doesn't hurt that Tres. Sec. Nominee Yellen was not given much pushback when she called to big action on the stimulus plan that Mr. Market loves.)

So, look for a bullish start to the day. As always, follow trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Lock in those profits when you achieve trade goals and stick with your discipline.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don't have to try to get rich every day.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: A technical snafu means no Trade Ideas for Wednesday, but they are in the video here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bank Earnings and Better Forecasts

Markets gapped down Friday on some bad economic data (Dec. Retail Sales miss lower than expected Producer Price Index, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index much lower than expected.  Then all the major indices put in indecisive candles for the session.  The QQQ put in a black Spinning Top type candle while the DIA and SPY printed Dojis.  On the day, SPY lost 0.73%, DIA lost 0.62%, and QQQ lost 0.79%.  The VXX gained 2.5% to 17.11 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 59.70.  10-year bond yields sold off strongly as traders bought into safety, ending at 1.087% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 3% to $52.04/barrel.

GS has raised their 2021 US Economic forecasts based on the $1.9 billion Biden stimulus plan.  Among the changes are an increase in economic expansion forecast to 6.6% (vs. 6.4% previously) and a reduction of unemployment forecast down to 4.5% (vs. 4.8% previously).  Lastly, GS now says that disposable income will increase 4.5% (vs. 3.8% increase previously).

On Monday, China reported higher than expected growth for Q4 (6.5% vs. 6.1% est.).  However, consumer spending for Dec. was lower than expected (4.6% vs. 5% in Nov.).  That said, economists are estimating a slowdown of growth for the year 2021, reducing estimates from 8.4% to 7.4% for the coming year.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 24,626,441 confirmed cases and 408,623 deaths.  This comes as the average number of new cases has fallen to 211,000 new cases and deaths have flattened at 3,326 per day.  As usual, the President is out of step, trying to lift travel restrictions from Brazil, Europe, and the UK on his last day in office. President-elect Biden has said this move will be reversed Wed. at noon.

Globally, the numbers rose to 96,095,456 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,051,742 deaths.  As a reference, the world average new cases is down to 666,551 per day, but deaths remain high at over 13,600 new deaths per day.  Israel hit another record number of new cases as its government is considering extending its national lockdown.  In Germany, PM Merkel is meeting with state leaders to discuss a tighter set of restrictions, including mandatory N-95 masking by anyone in public.  This comes as Germany announced it has discovered yet another mutation of the virus among 35 patients.  Still, in hopeful news, the UK’s Minister for Vaccine Deployment said that national hopeful news, UK Minister for Vaccine Deployment said that restrictions in the UK could be gradually eased in March as the top 4 cohorts of the most vulnerable should have received vaccinations by then.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned mostly green.  Hong Kong (+2.70%) and South Korea (+2.61%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.96%) and Shanghai (-0.86%) paced losing exchanges.  In Europe, so far today markets are mixed but leaning green on modest moves.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE -0.05% in on the res side of flat, DAX (+0.23%) has a modest gain, and CAC (+0.01%) is just on the green side of flat.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a small gap higher.  The DIA is implying a +0.59% open, while the SPY implies a +0.64% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.79% open.

There is no major economic news for Tuesday.  Major earnings reports on the day include BAC, CMA, GS, HAL, PETS, SCHW, and STT before the open.  Then after the close, JBHT, NFLX, and ZION report.

With planned weekend protests at state capitols mostly failing to take place (give or take 25 armed protesters in Michigan), the market seems to be ready to start the week rested and hopeful for a transition to the Biden Administration. With 25,000 troops plus thousands of Federal Law Enforcement, as well as Iraq-style Red and Green zones fenced off, it would seem unlikely there will be any protests, riots, or disruptions to the inauguration. In fact, the new administration is already starting to work as new Sec. of Treasury Yellen is calling for action on the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan.

So, look for a bullish start to the short week. As always, follow trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Lock in those profits when you achieve trade goals and stick with your discipline.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don't have to try to get rich every day.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas for Tuesday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bank Earnings and Stimulus Plan Details

On Thursday, Jobless Claims shot up unexpectedly to almost 1 million, but markets did not care.  All three major indices opened flat, but then sold off a bit most of the day.  As a result, the SPY and DIA both printed Bearish Engulfing candles, while the QQQ put in a black candle.  On the day, DIA lost 0.19%, SPY lost 0.35%, and QQQ lost 0.53%.  Interestingly, the IWM was up 2% and closed at an all-time high close.  VXX gained just over a percent to 16.68 and T2122 fell slightly, but remains in the overbought territory at 89.97.  10-year bond yields spiked on expectations of the Biden stimulus plan closing a 1.129% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.5% to $52.72/barrel.

After hours, President-elect Biden released his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan.  The plan includes another $1,400 direct payment (raising the December $600 to $2,000).  It also calls for extending $400/week federal unemployment benefits through September, as well as raising the federal minimum wage to $15/hour.  Other key points include $350 billion for state and local government aid, $170 billion aid for schools, $50 billion for Covid testing and $20 billion for vaccinations.  One expected item that was missing was a $10,000 student loan forgiveness plan.

As he leaves office, President Trump continues to escalate tensions with China.  This time by adding more Chinese companies to the federal blacklist (prohibited from doing business in the US and from US investment) including the largest Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi and massive oil company CNOOC.  Some tariffs have been in place as of January 1st, impacting things such as the price of computer graphics cards.  Oxford University estimates the impact of the trade war will be about $1.6 trillion over the next 5 years, but did not break down the split between the world’s two largest economies. Reuters did report that it may result in up to 732,000 fewer US jobs being created by 2022.

Related to the virus itself, US infections remain very high, but may show signs of easing just a bit.  The totals have risen to 23,848,410 confirmed cases and 397,994 deaths.  This comes as we average just over 243,000 new cases and just over 3,400 deaths per day.  (Extremely high, but less than just a few days ago.) In addition, in an effort to ramp up vaccinations, baseball stadiums and convention centers are being transformed into large-scale vaccination centers across the country.  President-elect Biden has called for a doubling of the pace (we currently give about 500,000 shots per day and he wants 100 million in 100 days).

Globally, the numbers rose to 93,637,684 confirmed cases and the world has now broken the 2 million death mark as confirmed deaths are now at 2,004,815 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging 715,000 new cases and over 13,500 new deaths per day.  Ireland reports that half of its total cases have come in the last 2 weeks.  While the number is a drop in the bucket relative to the US, that trend should be alarming.  France imposed new travel restrictions.  German PM Merkel proposed another total national lockdown (they are already in a partial one), but is being fought by German states and business groups.  In Asia, perhaps just coincidentally, China reported its first COVID-19 death in 5 months and a renewed outbreak in the Northwest of the country, on the same day WHO experts arrived in Wuhan to investigate the virus source.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Shenzhen (+0.27%) and Shanghai (+0.27%) again paced gainers.  Meanwhile, South Korea (-2.03%), India (-1.10%) and Thailand (-1.11%) led the losses.  In Europe, so far today markets are red across the board.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE -0.90%), DAX (-1.05%), and CAC (-1.14%) are all leading the way lower, but losses are over three-fourths of a percent across the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are down slightly as well.  The DIA is implying a -0.41% open, while the SPY implies a -0.32% open, and the QQQ is flat, implying a -0.06% open.

The major economic news for Friday includes Dec. Retail Sales, Dec. PPI, and NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), Dec. Industrial Production (9:15 am), and Nov. Business Inventories and Mich. Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am).  Major earnings reports on the day include C, JPM, PNC, and WFC before the open.  There are no major earnings reports after the close.

As we head into a long weekend and with the FBI reporting warnings of more pro-Trump attacks possible in all 50 state capitols as well as 3 serious threats to the US Capitol, do not be surprised to see hedging or profit-taking action Friday. 3 days is a long time to hold much risk in this kind of environment. Besides, it's Friday...and Friday is payday. So, don't forget to take some money off and pay yourself.

Lock in those profits (base hits are the way we build consistency) and stick with your discipline.  As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don't have to try to get rich every day.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GILD, MPC, FUBO, INSP, XBI, OSTK, PSX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Jobless Claims and Biden Stimulus Plan

Markets opened flat and then printed indecisive (Doji or Spinning Top type candles).  The QQQ even formed a sort of “Morning Star type” signal, although the wicks are too large to meet the technical definition.  On the day, the SPY (+0.25%) was up, the DIA (-0.04%) on the red side of flat, and the QQQ (+0.68%) closed higher.  The VXX was down to 16.49 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) rose higher into overbought territory at 90.91.  10-year bond yields fell for the first time this year to 1.095% and Oil (WTI) pulled back half a percent to $52.91/barrel.

After the close, Congress impeached the President for a second time with 10 GOP members voting with all Democrats to call for an impeachment trial.  This vote came as  7,000 National Guard troops (of 20,000 expected) and another 1,500 Federal Law Enforcement personnel had already occupied the Capitol because the FBI reported 3 credible threats of terrorism (dated 1-16 through 1-20) targeting those buildings and officials, presumably around the Inauguration event.

The US Budget Deficit grew 61% in December to $144 billion.  Oddly, that number was much better than the $200 billion deficit for the month that was expected. In other good news, Crude Oil Inventories came in a million barrels lower than expected, declining 3.25 million barrels.  In not-so-good news, Fed member Brainard reported that workers in the bottom quartile of salary still has an unemployment rate above 20%.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 23,616,345 confirmed cases and 393,928 deaths.  This comes as we average just over 253,000 new cases and just over 3,400 deaths per day.  JNJ reported after the close that their one-shot vaccine is showing promising results from a tiny set (57) or early-stage study participants.  However, the company also acknowledged a mfg. delay that has put them behind schedule on production of the vaccine (pre-producing in hope it will be approved later).  Meanwhile, Ohio researchers have identified two new US-originating mutations of COVID-19, one of which (dubbed the “Columbus Strain”) is similar to and as contagious as the UK variant.

Globally, the numbers rose to 92,891,624 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,989,396 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging 733,000 new cases and over 13,400 new deaths per day.  A study out of the UK has found that if you catch COVID-19 and recover, your body has approximately 5 months of immunity, but not lifetime resistance.  In other bad news, one of the Chinese vaccines from Sinovac Biotech was found to be only 50% effective in Brazilian trials (versus the 78% effectiveness the company had claimed from Chinese trials).  In Japan, PM Suga declared a state of emergency for 7 additional regions of the country. And in the UK, Health Sec. Hancock is now considering putting COVID-19 patients into hotels to ease capacity pressure on the NHS.  However, while it would surely help make space, that measure would not help any personnel, material or equipment capacity issues.  And in Germany, the government tightened inbound travel restrictions again today, specifically trying to stop the UK and South African mutations of the virus. This after reporting that German 2020 GDP had contracted by 5%.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again.  Shenzhen (-1.39%) and Shanghai (-0.91%) again paced the losers.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+0.93%) and Japan (+0.85%) led gainers.  European markets are leaning to the green side so far today.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE (+0.73%), DAX (+0.20%), and CAC (+0.10%) are all positive at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are flat.  The biggest mover is the DIA, which is implying a +0.27% open, while the SPY implies a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.06% open.

The major economic news for Thursday includes Dec. Import/Exports and Weekly Initial jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and 3 Fed Speakers (Bostic at 11 am, Chair Powell at 12:30 pm, and Kaplan at 1 pm).  The other event that could be caused major economic news is President-elect Biden will unveil his stimulus proposals after the close.  (Sources have told reporters it will be in the $2 trillion price range.)  Major earnings reports on the day include BLK, DAL, FRC, and TSM before the open.  There are no major earnings reports after the close.

With all political drama done, for now, waiting for more economic news or on the outcome of additional threatened acts of insurrection may give the market pause. Also remember that Monday is a market holiday. So, there could be some hedging or profit-taking the next couple days in front ofth e long weekend. Again, we can look at the bright side of this sideways action helping work off over-extension.

As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Lock in those profits (base hits are the way we build consistency) and stick with your discipline.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GBT, QCOM, CB, SPWR, MVIS, LLY, BKD, HUYA, NET. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

CPI, Deficit and Impeachment on Tap Today

Markets opened flat Tuesday and then proceeded to print indecisive Doji-type candles in all 3 major averages.  So, after a rollercoaster session, the consolidation of the last couple days remains in force.  On the day SPY (+0.01%) was on the green side of flat, DIA (-0.16%) was on the red side, and QQQ (+0.18%) was on the green side.  The VXX lost 3.4% to 16.75 and T2122 jumped back up into the overbought territory at 87.08.  10-year bond yield were flat at 1.134% and Oil rose the better part of 2% to $53.15/barrel.

During the day, two different Fed speakers said that into 2022 the FOMC will remain accommodative, but that inflation could rise faster than expected.  In other economic news, President-elect Biden announced more economic relief will be coming, saying he will extend the Student Loan repayment moratorium in addition to earlier calling on Congress to forgive $10,000 in student loans.  The dollar also continued to weaken, which helped most commodities and even bonds to an extent.  However, this weakening also raises concerns that the EU, China, and perhaps others will soon make moves to devalue their own currencies relative to the dollar to offset the impact of falling dollars (it is harder to sell things to the US when a dollar buys less).

Overnight, in Europe, ECB President Lagarde told reporters she is standing by her forecast of 3.9% GDP growth for 2021 (versus what is believed to be a 7.3% contraction last year).  Despite the current lockdowns and travel restrictions, she said the model expected the current situation.  She said that what might change forecasts would be lockdowns that extended past March. Until then, she still expects close to 4% growth.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 23,369,732 confirmed cases and 389,621 deaths.  The post-holiday surge is now starting to hit, as we average just over 253,000 new cases and after another record day of 4,300 dead, we now average almost 3,400 deaths per day.  The CDC has announced that all international air travelers will require a negative test before boarding a flight destined for the US as of Jan. 26.  In addition, the agency also reported that we have vaccinated 9 million people with the first round (of two) of the PFE-BTNX or MRNA vaccines.  REGN also announced a deal with the government to provide 1.25 million additional doses of its Covid antibody treatment.  Interestingly, at almost the same time Dr. Fauci (NIH) and other scientists were saying that the new South African variant may pose a threat to the effectiveness to the existing antibody treatments and could theoretically also impact the effectiveness of vaccines.

Globally, the numbers rose to 92,118,795 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,972,685 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging over 733,000 new cases and over 13,000 new deaths per day.  Germany tightened inbound travel restrictions and extended its lockdown again today, specifically trying to stop the UK and South African mutations of the virus.  In bad news, a Chinese vaccine from Sinovac Biotech was found to be only 50% effective in Brazil trials (versus the 78% the company had claimed from Chinese trials).  In Japan, PM Suga declared a state of emergency for 7 additional regions of the country. And in the UK, Health Sec. Hancock is now considering putting COVID-19 patients into hotels to ease capacity pressure on the NHS.  However, while it would surely help make space, that measure would not help any personnel, material or equipment capacity issues.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  China showed the only red with Shenzhen (-1.08%), Shanghai (-0.27%), and Hong Kong (-0.15%) to the downside.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (+1.74%), Malaysia (+1.53%), and Japan (+1.04%) led gainers.  European markets are also mixed, but lean to the red side on modest moves so far today.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE (-0.20%) , DAX (-0.19%), and CAC (-0.10%) are all slightly red.   As of 7:30 am, US futures are also in the red.  The DIA is implying a -0.18% open, the SPY a -0.28% open, and the QQQ a -0.26% open.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Dec. CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Beige Book and Dec. Federal Budget Balance (both at 2 pm) and 4 Fed Speakers (Bullard at 9:30 am, Brainard at 1 pm, Harker at 2 pm, and Clarida at 3 pm). Major earnings reports include INFO, INFY, SJR, and WIT before the open.  There are no major earnings reports after the close.

With no surge of earnings today and the political drama still only slowly simmering, markets may be wont to drift with threats of more seditious violence 3-10 days away (according to FBI reports). If we look at the bright side, this sideways action could be taken as good for the bulls as over-extension gets worked off. However, be careful of odd moves. Bloomberg reported that six of the 10 most active stocks on Monday were penny stocks which moved in massive swings on no particular news, possibly pointing to major pump-and-dump or other unknown activity.

As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Lock in those profits (base hits are the way we build consistency) and stick with your discipline.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PTON, LYFT, XLB, XLI, CPE, MOMO, SPCE, NKLA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Some Profit-Taking At the Highs

Heads up:  There will be no Tuesday morning blog, my Buckeyes play tonight.

Markets gapped up moderately on Friday and then did a roller-coaster selloff until mid-afternoon.  At that point, the bulls stepped in and led a strong rally that lasted right into the close.  This left the SPY and DIA with Hanging Man type candles.  All 3 major indices closed at yet another new all-time high close.   On the day, QQQ (+1.29%) led, while the SPY gained 0.57% and the DIA gained 0.17%.  VXX lost another percent to 16.35 and T2122 remains in the overbought territory at 87.06.  10-year bond yields screamed higher again to 1.119% and Oil (WTI) gained 3.74% to $52.73/barrel.

On the heels of Thursday night’s large government fine and charges, in what may be more bad news for BA, an older model of the 737 (a 737-500) crashed a few minutes after takeoff in Indonesia on Saturday.  The black boxes were located on Sunday and the Indonesian government hopes to retrieve them from the ocean shortly. In other trading news, Bitcoin is proving as volatile as ever for crypto traders. It has fallen 11% overnight on what analysts are saying is likely profit-taking.  This comes as the Dollar rose against global currencies.

In continued fallout from Wednesday’s seditious riots on the US Capitol, AAPL followed GOOGL lead and has removed the radical right alternative to TWTR from its app store.  TWTR, FB, YouTube and other social media have also banned the President and most of his leading conspiracy theory spewing followers such as QAnon, Sidney Powell, Rudy Giuliani, Michael Flynn, etc. Other related news includes Congress demanding VP Pence invoke the 25th Amendment and they are also expected to pass another Impeachment this week. For his part, the President apparently intends to try changing the topic and running out the clock by traveling to a section of the border wall in Texas.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 22,917,334 confirmed cases and 383,275 deaths.  The post-holiday surge is now starting to hit, as we average 250,368 new cases and 3,306 deaths per day.  The US has now seen more than 100,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations for 40 days in a row.  Harvard and MIT report that the US is lagging in the speed of genetic sequencing of samples, which helps explain why so few cases of the new UK variant have been found.  In the US it takes 85 days on average from sample collection to posting sequences.  This is slower than many smaller and poorer countries (such as Bangledesh).

Globally, the numbers rose to 90,769,055 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,944,726 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging over 725,000 new cases and almost 13,000 new deaths per day. In the UK, the Chief Medical Officer of the country said Britain was at the worst point of the pandemic.  The UK plans to tighten its lockdown in response.  However, in France, the government says no new lockdown measures are needed at this point.  In China, they have completed the mass testing of over 17 million people in one province…all done in 5 days. In Japan, they have identified (genetically sequenced) yet another COVID-19 variant.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Japan (+2.36%) far outpaced all other gainers, while Shenzhen (-1.80%), Shanghai (-1.08%), and Malaysia (-0.98%) had the worst losses.  In Europe, markets are mixed but lean much more heavily to the downside as of mid-day on the continent.  Among the 3 major bourses, the FTSE is down 0.51%, the DAX down 0.68%, and the CAC down 0.60%.   As of 7:30 am, US Futures are following Europe this morning.  The DIA is implying a gap down of 0.77%, the SPY implying a gap down of 0.64%, and the QQQ implying a gap down of 0.63%. This is possibly pre-market profit-taking after a strong week and trying to time exuberance.

There is no major economic news for Monday, but there is a Fed speaker (Bostic at noon).  Major earnings reports on the day are limited to CMC before the open and SNX after the close.

Markets have moved on from the seditious Washington riots and seem to be more focused on extension, if not valuations at these all-time highs. With no economic data or earnings to change the narrative, the balance seems to be between how much Mr. Market likes President-elect Biden's stimulus plans and the vaccine rollout versus how much he fears over-extension and the virus. Keep this in mind as you decide whether to add positions, hedge your bets, or take money off the table.

As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Lock in those profits (base hits are better than long fly-outs) and stick with your discipline.  Focus on the market, the chart, and your trading process. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Go Bucks!

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PEIX, BMY, ZEN, CSCO, PTON, PINS, LOW, JD, GE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

BA Fined - Bitcoin Soars - Bulls Run

Markets gapped up a half to nine-tenths of a percent Thursday as markets got past the turmoil of Wednesday and decided they liked the idea of a united government. After the open, drifted higher and then waffled the rest of the day.  On the day, all 3 major indices closed at new all-time high closes, with the SPY and QQQ putting in strong white candles that closed near the highs.  However, the DIA backed off to form a cap-up Doji type candle.  At the close, QQQ was up 2.42%, SPY was up 1.49%, and DIA was up 0.74%.  The VXX fell almost 6% to 16.53 and T2122 fell slightly, but remains in the overbought territory at 88.67.  10-year bond yield drove strongly higher again to 1.079% (the high since last March) and Oil (WTI) was up two-thirds of a percent to $50.97/barrel.

Shortly after the close, the DOJ fined BA $2.5 billion and charged the company with conspiracy to defraud over company deception related to the 737 Max crashes in late 2018 and early 2019.  The other market news was that Bitcoin broke more records again on Thursday, now trading very close to $40,000.  Finally, before the open Thursday, the NYSE again reversed course (again) and decided they will delist the 3 Chinese Telecom giants.

As expected, the other major news on the day was political.  Democrats and some Republicans called for the removal of President Trump by invocation of the 25th Amendment and/or Impeachment for his incitement of Wednesday’s insurrection.  The larger GOP names attempted to distance themselves from Trump by either denouncing him or resigning like Transportation Sec. Chao.  At the other end of the spectrum, Trump attack dogs went into hiding and radio silence in hopes that the furor will blow over by inauguration day.  At day end, the President released another desperate video in an attempt to prevent others from removing him.  In it, he vaguely conceded that he lost, managed to go 2 minutes without lying about winning and having the election stolen, but then lied about how he acted as soon as he saw the rioters.  Either way, if the riots didn’t completely spook Wall Street, the resignations, posturing, and/or silence certainly has not done so.  So, it appears Wall Street is well past the episode.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 22,137,009 confirmed cases and 374,197 deaths.  The post-holiday surge is still not fully upon us yet, but we again hit national record highs of 279,154 new cases and 4,207 deaths Thursday.  However, the 7-day daily average remains at 234,110 new cases and 2,831 deaths per day.  The CDC announced that over 21 million doses of the PFE-BTNX vaccine have been “distributed,” but just 5.9 million doses have been administered as of day end Thursday.

Globally, the numbers rose to 88,615,325 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,908,948 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging 659,484 new cases and 11,357 new deaths per day.  In Europe, the EU has purchased 300 million more doses of the PFE-BNTX vaccine. A trial held in 6 countries (800 patients studied) found that a combination of 2 Arthritis drugs shows an 8.5% decrease in mortality when administered to the sickest patients.  Brazil announced that the second of 2 Chinese vaccines they have studied is 78% effective during phase 3 trials.  Although quite a bit less effective than the PFE or MRNS vaccines, the Chinese vaccines are much, much easier to ship and distribute because they can be stored at normal refrigerator temperatures.  Speaking of China they are tightening restrictions again.  In addition to the locked-down province, they have quarantined a city of 11 million residents and now commuters are required to show proof of Beijing residence and a Negative test result before they can travel to the capitol.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the green.  South Korea (+3.97%), Singapore (+2.97%), and Japan (+2.36%) led the way. Mainland China was down slightly on fears over new outbreaks.  In Europe we see a similar story so far today, but with much smaller gains.  The FTSE (+0.02%) is flat with the DAX (+0.79%) and CAC (+0.53%) being more typical again.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are moderately green this morning.  The QQQ is again strongest, implying a +0.55% gap up open, while the SPY (+0.38%) and DIA (+0.28%) are implying more modest gains at the open.  However, we are likely waiting on data at 8:30 before deciding the open.

The major economic news for Friday includes Dec. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Dec. Nonfarms Payrolls, Dec. Unemployment Rate, and Dec. Participation Rate (all at 8:30 am).  There is also a Fed speaker (Clarida at 11 am).  There are no major earnings reports on the day Friday.

With any fear from the Washington riots in the rearview mirror, the markets have been running hard. There is a data dump at 8:30 am which may influence short-term sentiment, but the bulls seem to have decided they like a Democratic-run government coming soon. That said, don't get over-exposed to the upside ahead of the weekend if you can't stand headline risk. Trump won't like being sidelined and may do something just to make sure everyone knows he's still around.

As always, lock in profits (base hits are better than long fly-outs) and stick with your discipline.  Follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  There will be another opportunity and we don't need to trade every day. Focus on the chart and your trading process. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint.  Finally, remember it's Friday...don't forget to pay yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AAPL, PANW, PINS, CHGG, QCOM, MNST, BLUE, UBER, NIO, MTCH. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Trump-Fueled Riot Did Not Terrify Bulls

As has been the case each day this year, markets gapped one way and then charged the other direction immediately.  Wednesday saw the gap down followed by a strong morning rally.  About 11:30 markets started to grind sideway, even drifting a bit higher until shortly after 2 pm.  Then our deluded President’s conspiracy theory lies believing followers were incited to riot and storm the US Capitol building.  Markets sold off as the seat of government was under siege for hours, but still managed to hold on to some of the morning gains.  The DIA even closed at another all-time high close.  On the day, DIA gained 1.44%, SPY gained 0.60%, and QQQ lost 1.39%.  The VXX actually lost half a percent to 17.55 and T2122 jumped up into the overbought territory at 92.48.  10-year bond yield shot higher again to 1.039% and Oil (WTI) gained another percent to $50.52/barrel.

Lost amongst the coverage of insurrection was that the Democrats won both of the GA Senate runoff elections.  So, President-elect Biden’s party will also control both Houses of the Congress (through VP Harris’ tie-breaking vote).  Some had said an expectation of that outcome was the reason for the gap down.  However, then markets immediately rallied, so it is hard to divine what Markets think about that change in governance.  Still, it makes the increase to a $2,000/person direct payment much more likely.

The other story lost in the wash was that the riots helped to accelerate the weakness in the dollar.  It has now fallen to the levels not seen since 2017.  This has helped drive the Euro to a level that currency has not seen since 2014.  Obviously, as the dollar falls, dollar-denominated commodity prices rise.  This partially explains the gains in Gold and Oil. It also increases the pressure on the Fed and fiscal stimulus, which goes less far as each dollar of stimulus buys less.  Overseas, it makes it harder for Central Banks and Governments to repay their own debt and to sell goods to the US.  As a result, Bloomberg reports that some analysts are expecting the ECB and China to take action to lower the value of their own currencies to offset dollar weakness.

It's hard to believe, but on a day with 4,100 virus deaths in the US, COVID-19 took a back seat. Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 21,857,616 confirmed cases and 369,990 deaths.  As mentioned, we did hit another national record high in deaths, but also in new cases at 260,973 on Wednesday.  However, the 7-day daily average remains at 228,891 new cases and 2,742 deaths per day.  

Globally, the numbers rose to 87,763,513 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,893,873 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging 645,896 new cases and 11,250 new deaths per day.  In Japan, the PM has declared a state of emergency in Tokyo and surrounding areas as they also reported a record number of new cases.  Travel bans from international travel, especially from the UK and South Africa continue to be added.  In Europe, the EU approved the MRNA vaccine, which means it will begin rollout across the EU by next week.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the green.  South Korea (+2.14%), Japan (+1.60%), and Australia (+1.59%) led the gainers.  The only appreciable loss was in Hong Kong (-0.52%) with a couple other exchanges just on the red side of flat.  In Europe we see a similar story so far today.  The FTSE (-0.47%) is one of the notable red spots with the DAX (+0.41%) and CAC (+0.31%) being more typical of the continent.  As of 7:30 am, despite the deluded riots that left 4 dead and the seat of Government battered, US Futures are moderately green this morning.  The QQQ is strongest, implying a +0.74% gap up open, while the SPY (+0.40%) is implying a positive, but not gappy open and the DIA (+0.28%) is implying a modest gain at the open.

The major economic news for Thursday includes Import/Exports, Nov. Trade Balance, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am.), Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am), and a pair of Fed speakers (Harker at 9 am and Bullard at Noon).  Major earnings reports include AYI, BBBY, CAG, HELE, LW, REVG, STZ, and WBA before the open.  Then after the close MU reports.

Volatility continues early in 2021. However, it would be hard to predict anything as volatile as Wednesday's riots happening again. Even though the Cabinet apparently hasn't had the courage to invoke Article 25, we can expect impeachment proceedings soon unless the GOP is willing to make massive concessions to buy off Democrats. At any rate, with the immediate threat behind us and President Biden's election now certified, hopefully, we can return to the virus being the main threat for days to come. It would still be wise to remain cautious and not chase. Be ready for the market switch-backs we've seen each of the first several days of the year.

As always, lock in profits (base hits are better than long fly-outs) and stick with your discipline.  Follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  There will be another opportunity and we don't need to trade every day. Focus on the chart and your trading process. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GOLD, KGC, GDX, WPM, NUGT, AGI. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Futures Mixed Amidst Volatile Markets

Markets opened slightly lower on Tuesday.  However, after a rollercoaster first hour, the bulls took control and led a sustained rally up until the last hour, which gave back just a touch of the gains.  On the day the QQQ gained 0.82%, the SPY gained 0.69%, and the DAI gain 0.50%.  VXX fell over 3% to 17.64 and T2122 shot back up to sit just below the overbought territory at 77.17.  10-year bond yields rose sharply to 0.955% and Oil (WTI) shot up over 4.5% buoyed by Saudi Arabia announcing production cuts, leaving it at $49.80/barrel after trading above $50 for the first time since last February.

Politics takes center stage again today without much real short-term impact.  One of the two GA Senate races is projected to go to the Democrat challenger while the other election is too close to call, with the Democrat currently in the lead.  If both Democrats win, the Senate becomes a stalemate for 2 years with Democratic VP Harris then being the deciding vote.  If either seat remains Republican, current Majority Leader McConnell retains the power to obstruct all Democratic plans for 2 years.  Meanwhile, the delusion of conspiracy theories comes to a crescendo as the President and some of his supporters will hold political theatre before accepting the Nov. election results.

Mortgage demand pulled back 0.80% in the last 2 weeks of December, despite record low interest rates (2.68% for 30-year conforming loans, which was way down from 2.90% in the previous reporting period).  The volume of applications was up 3% above the same period a year prior, but the volume had been running at 20% or more higher than the previous year since the beginning of the pandemic.  So, this may be signaling an end to the home buying surge.  

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 21,579,641 confirmed cases and 365,664 deaths.  The post-holiday surge is still not fully upon us yet, but we did hit a national record of 3,775 deaths Tuesday.  However, the 7-day daily average remains at 222,771 new cases and 2,678 deaths per day.  As mentioned yesterday, the hospital capacity in the Los Angeles area is critical.  Ambulance crews have told to perform 15 minutes of life-saving at any scene and then only transport patients that do not have a low likelihood of survival.  Beyond that, each ambulance may experience an hour or more of wait time at the hospital before a patient can be seen and they freed up for another call.  In addition, all non-essential (beyond just elective) surgeries have been canceled in the region.

Globally, the numbers rose to 86,959,936 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,878,706 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging about 637,000 new cases and 11,250 new deaths per day.  As in the US, in Europe, delays in vaccinations are a major storyline.  The Netherlands just gave its first vaccination on Wednesday as their National Health Ministry had bet on the wrong vaccine to be ready first.  In France the pace is also far, far behind with just a few thousands of doses given.  Italy also received 100,000 fewer doses than they expected.  Meanwhile, for comparison the UK has vaccinated 1.3 million people and Germany almost 400,000.  In China, over 100 cases were reported in one province and that region is being locked down with a negative test required to enter or leave the province as of today.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red.  Indonesia (-1.17%), Australia (-1.12%) and Malaysia (-1.02%) led the losses.  Shanghai (+0.63%) was the only appreciable green exchange.  In Europe, markets are mostly green so far today.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE (+2.75%) leads as an outlier, with the DAX (+1.02%) and CAC (+0.80%) more typical.  As of 7:45 am, US Futures are mixed.  The QQQ is implying a large -1.44% gap down while the DIA (+0.15%) is slightly green and the SPY is implying a -0.27% open at this point.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Dec. ADP Nonfarm Employment (87:15 am), Dec. Services PMI (9:45 am), Nov. Factory Orders (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and Dec. FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm).  Major earnings reports are limited to MSM and RPM before the open.  There are no major earnings reports after the close.

Volatility continues early in 2021, with each day so far starting with markets going one direction only to slam back hard the other direction. Some pundits claim this is related to fear over the Senate, others that is it virus-related. Regardless of the cause, be cautious not to chase and be ready for market switch-backs. Safe is better than fast and nimble is better than slow...if that makes sense.

As always, lock in profits (base hits are better than long fly-outs) and stick with your discipline.  Follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  There will be another opportunity and we don't need to trade every day. Focus on the chart and your trading process. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CX, X, GE, LTHM, TLRY, AMAT, REGI, XRT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Futures Flat With Little Overnight News

Markets gapped higher between 0.3% and 0.5% at the open Monday.  However, this was met by a face-ripping selloff that lasted until about 12:30 pm on fears over the holiday surge and the new, more contagious virus strain.  The rest of the day was a sideways grind with a slight bullish bent to i. However, stocks closed closer to their lows than to the Open.  This left us with large Bearish Engulfing candles in all 3 major indices, albeit with lower wicks.  On the day, SPY lost 1.36%, DIA lost 1.13%, and QQQ lost 1.41%.  The VXX gained almost 9% to 18.25 and T2122 fell sharply and now sits at 31.19.  10-year bond yields were flat at 0.915% and Oil (WTI) fell over 2% to $47.36/barrel.

In a bizarre turnaround, the NYSE announced it will not delist the 3 Chinese telecom companies in order to comply with a Presidential Executive Order.  So, China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom will all remain listed for now.

An interesting tidbit out of the UK.  Since the first of the year, the cost of moving freight to the UK from Europe has quadrupled due to extra turmoil from Brexit.  This was also complicated by the extra testing requirements at the border around the new virus strain.  This news came as the UK enters its third national lockdown.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 21,353,051 confirmed cases and 362,123 deaths.  The post-holiday surge is still not fully upon us.  However, the 7-day daily average remains high at 218,967 new cases and 2,702 deaths per day.  So far, the US has vaccinated only 4.5 million people (less than 25% of 2020 goal), but has distributed well over 15 million doses.  So, the hold-up is the logistics of administering the shots.  Due to the extreme requirements for storage temperatures, relatively few locations in each state have the vaccine and this added to a system strain of all the new cases has slowed vaccinations.  As an example of system load, Los Angeles ambulance crews were told to make triage decisions and not transport patients with little chance of survival, because the hospitals have no capacity left for such patients.

Globally, the numbers rose to 86,197,384 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,863,113 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging about 622,939 new cases and 11,170 new deaths per day.  As mentioned, the UK imposed another national lockdown to fight the strain on their NHS caused by the new virus variant. A Cabinet Minister went further to say that UK citizens should not be traveling under any circumstances.  Elsewhere in Europe, Italy has decided to extend its own lockdown measures at least another two weeks and Germany is discussing an extension of their own quarantine with regional leaders.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green again.  Thailand (+2.62%), South Korea (+1.57%), and Shenzhen (+1.50%) were the strong outliers with most exchanges moving much more modestly and mostly to the upside.  However, in Europe, markets are mostly red with only a few clinging to the green side of flat.  Among the 3 major European bourses, the FTSE (-0.09%) is just red, while the DA (-0.64%) and CAC (-0.71%) are more typical of the continent at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are just on the red side of flat.  The DIA is implying a -0.17% open, the SPY implying a -0.15% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.10% open at this point.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Dec. ISM Mfg. PMI and Dec. ISM Mfg. Employment (both at 10 am) and a Fed speaker (Williams at 3:45 pm).  There are no major earnings reports on the day.

After a rough start to 2021, markets seem to be pausing to check the wind direction. This may be due to waiting on the GA Senate elections, the Republican theatre to placate conspiracy theories, or even waiting to see the depths of post-holiday virus impacts. Regardless, there is no strong direction in pre-market this morning.

Lock in those base hit profits where you can and stick to your discipline.  Follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Focus on the chart and your trading process. Remember that trading is a marathon, not a sprint.  So, don’t feel like you need to trade every day.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WMT, AUY, LMNX, UTHR, TPR, KL. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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