Markets were volatile Thursday, giving us great whiplash moves.  SPY opened flat at +0.02%, DIA opened down 0.03%, and QQQ opened 0.05% higher.  At that point, SPY and QQQ sold off sharply until 10:15 a.m. when they hit the lows of the day.  Then they both reversed and rallied hard back across the open to the highs of the day at 1:15 p.m.  However, then they both reversed again selling off hard again trying to reach the lows again, but coming up just a little short.  Meanwhile, DIA just rallied after its open, also reaching the highs of the day at 1:15 p.m.  Then it too sold off, but not quite as strongly as the other two major index ETFs.  This action gave us a black-bodied, large-bodied Spinning Top candle in QQQ, a black-bodied, large Inverted Hammer in the SPY, and a white-bodied Inverted Hammer in the DIA. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green with Industrials (+1.09%) out front leading the gaining sectors higher.  On the other side, Technology (-0.76%) was again the worst-performing sector.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.52%, DIA gained 0.21%, and QQQ fell 1.10%.  VXX climber just a bit to 49.59.  Meanwhile, T2122 spiked back up into the upper half of its mid-range at 59.11.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to close at 4.246% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.68% to close at $78.12 per barrel.  This happened on above-average volume in the QQQ and average volume in the SPY and DIA.  So, Thursday saw a continuation of the sharp selloff in SPY and QQQ.  However, DIA held its ground after the rough week or so.  If there was any upside for Bulls, it would be that the QQQ closed on its long-term uptrend line dating back to October.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in just below predictions at 235k (compared to a forecast of 237k and the prior week’s 245k).  For the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also better than expected at 1,851k (versus a forecast of 1,860k, which was also the prior week’s value).  At the same time, June Core Durable Goods Orders showed a jump of +0.5% (compared to a forecasted +0.2% and the far better than May’s -0.1%).  On the headline number, June Durable Goods Orders showed a large and unexpected decline of -6.6% (versus a forecast calling for +0.3% and May’s +0.1% reading).  I’ve got no idea how the core and headline numbers on that work together.  In terms of Preliminary Q2 PCE Prices, they were up 2.90% (compared to a +2.70% forecast but down from June version’s +3.70%).  At the same time, Preliminary Q2 GDP was much stronger than anticipated at +2.80% (versus a +2.0% forecast and a June value of +1.4%).  In terms of prices, the Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index was not as high as was expected at +2.3% (compared to the +2.6% forecast and well down from the June +3.1% reading).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a modest decline of $3 billion for the week, down to $7.205 trillion from the prior week’s $7.208 trillion value.

After the close, ALSN, AJG, ASB, BKR, BYD, CINF, COLB, FIX, DECK, EIX, ENIC, ENSG, ERIE, FIBK, HIG, LHX, LPLA, DOC, SKYW, SSNC, TXRH, UCTT, and VLTO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATR, COLM, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EGO, FBIN, MTX, MHK, NSC, and TFII missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, TBBK, SAM, and PFG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, BTE, JNPR, OLN, SKX, WY, and WKC missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, WBD stock fell 5.67% after it failed to renew its NBA broadcast rights contract (on its TNT channel).  (WBD indicated it intended to sue after the league rejected its offer to match the bid from AMZN.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that iPhone sales in China during Q2 fell 6.7% while Chinese rival Huawei saw its China phone sale surge by 10%.  Later, AAL lowered its annual revenue forecast, citing a poor sales strategy.  At the same time, INST announced it had agreed to be acquired by KKR for $23.60 per share or $4.8 billion.  Later, VLO announced it plans to run its refineries at 92% of capacity in Q3.  This is down from the 94% VLO operated at during Q2 and well below its previously-announced plan to operate at more than 95% of capacity. 

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that TSLA CEO Musk intends to ask the board of TSLA to make a $5 billion investment into his xAI startup company.  Later, BAC announced its payments app had handled a record $500 billion in payments by mid-year.  At the same time, in Canada, WMT announced it will invest $53 million to increase the wages of 40,000 Canadian workers.  Later, Bloomberg reported that GM intends to begin charging for Cruise robotaxi rides in early 2025.  At the same time, LUV announced it will end its long-standing “open seating” policy as the airline seeks to improve earnings by instituting seating price tiers.  Later, OpenAI announced it is now testing a direct competitor to GOOGL and to a much lesser extent MSFT (which is a also ran in the market in question) search engines called SearchGPT.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, Reuters reported multiple sources tell it META will be hit with its first EU antitrust fines within a few weeks.  The fines are for META tying classified advertisements service Marketplace with its Facebook social network.  (The fine could be as much as $13.4 billion, which is 10% of its 2023 global revenue.)  At the same time, in the UK, COIN was fined $4.5 million for breaching the British financial crimes requirements.  Later, the US Dept. of justice announced that it and BA had finalized the company’s guilty plea.  BA will pay at least $243.6 million in fines for breaching its 2021 agreement that allowed it to avoid charges then.  At the same time, Russia reduced the speed of GOOGL’s YouTube service by 40% in order (with a threat to reduce it further to down 70%) next week) to pressure the company to reinstate blocked Russian YouTube channels. 

Elsewhere, the KR $25 billion acquisition of ACI has been halted until after a trial in CO that is scheduled to start in September.  At the same time, the CA Supreme Court rejected a union lawsuit, upholding the recent ballot measure that called for treating UBER and LYFT drivers as independent contractors instead of employees.  Later, BAYRY (Bayer) announced a settlement where it will pay $160 million to resolve Seattle’s PCB contamination lawsuit against the company’s Monsanto unit.  At the same time, a shareholder has filed suit to block the long and troubled merger (acquisition) of PARA by Skydance Media.  The suit alleges the deal would cost non-voting shareholders $1.65 billion.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green.  India (+1.76%), Shenzhen (+1.45%), and Thailand (+1.10%) led the seven gainers. Meanwhile, Taiwan (-3.29%) was an outlier as it resumed trading after being closed due to typhoon for two days.  That outlier was nearly 3% worse than any of the other four red exchanges. In Europe, markets lean heavily toward the green at midday with only two of the 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.90%), DAX (+0.31%), and FTSE (+0.68%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:00 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a strongly green open early (before PCE data).  The DIA implies a +0.60% open, the SPY is implying a +0.75% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.99% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.244% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.42% to $77.95 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday, June Core PCE Price Index, June PCE Price Index, and June Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.) are reported.  The major earnings reports before the open include MMM, AB, AON, AVTR, BAH, BMY, CNC, CHTR, CL, BEN, GNTX, NWL, POR, SAIA, and TROW.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the Pentagon announced it had found another $2 billion accounting error that had caused the value of munitions sent to Ukraine to be overvalued.  (They had used replacement cost rather than depreciated value to place a price on the goods.)  This effectively increases the amount the US can send Ukraine by another $2 billion.  Elsewhere, attacks on French railways are causing travel chaos in Paris as the city preps for today’s opening ceremony of the Olympics.  About 250k passengers will be disrupted today and more than 800k disrupted over the weekend.  At the same time, a French-Swiss airport (Basel-Mulhouse) was evacuated and closed for safety reasons.  Finally, in overnight news, Reuters reported that HMC plans to close a factory in China as well as temporarily halting production at another plant.  The halt is part of a retooling to start producing more electric vehicles amidst heavy competition from Chinese EV rivals.

So far this morning, MMM, AFLYY, AB, BASFY, BMY, CHTR, CL, POR, TROW, and VLOWY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AVTR and CRI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AON, BAH, and CNC beat on revenue while missing on earnings. 

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are looking to start Friday with a significant gap higher. All three major index ETFs began the premarket with a gap up and have followed through with white-bodied candles. Only QQQ has wicks on its early session candle, indicating less indecision among the DIA and SPY early. DIS is even retesting its T-line (8ema) from below having crossed above in the premarket. However, with all that said, we are still an hour away from the PCE Inflation data that could rock the boat (which just don’t know in what direction). So, after a rough four days in the market, it appears the Bulls have some momentum very early on a Friday. The short-term trend remains Bearish. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain very bullish and still not all that far from all-time highs. In terms of extension, even considering the premarket move higher, QQQ is stretched below its T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now in its mid-range. Therefore, overall, this means the market still has room to run in either direction if the market can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are solidly or strongly in the green in the early session with AMD (+2.39%) and NVDA (+2.31%) leading the group higher on strong moves and good volume. Meanwhile, GOOGL (+0.41%) is the laggard, having moved less than half as much as the next lowest performer MSFT (+0.87%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw similar movement across all three major index ETFs, but with different magnitudes.  SPY opened down 0.02%, DIA opened up 0.04%, and QQQ opened down 0.17%.  From there, all three meandered back-and-forth around the “gaps” with SPY and DIA moving in a 0.50% range while QQQ moved in a 0.85% range.  This was only interrupted by a selloff the last 10 minutes across all three major index ETFs.  This action gave us black-bodied, inverted Hammer type candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  SPY and QQQ both retested their T-line (8ema) from below and failed the test during the day.  Meanwhile, DIA retested its own T-line from above and fell through by just four cents.  (So, it’s still a test in progress.)

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.26%) way out front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Financial Services (+0.31%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.16%, DIA fell 0.16%, and QQQ fell 0.35%. VXX fell 0.82% to close at a very low at 10.83.  T2122 fell a bit, climbed just a bit further into its overbought range at 85.97.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields closed at 4.253% and Oil (WTI) continued to fall, down another 1.19% to close at $77.47 per barrel.  This all happened on far below-average volume in the SPY, DIA and QQQ.  So, Tuesday saw a pause after Monday’s gains.  continuation of the pullback from all-time highs with QQQ leading, SPY in the middle, and DIA following (just as it did on the way up). 

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included June Existing Home Sales, which came in light at 3.89 million (compared to a forecast of 3.99 million and the May reading of 4.11 million).  Then, after the close, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a much larger drawdown than expected at -3.900 million barrels (versus a forecasted build of 0.700 million barrels but less of a drawdown that the prior week’s -4.440 million barrels).

After the close, GOOGL, AGR, CALM, CB, EWBC, ENVA, GOOG, MTDR, PKG, RRR, STX, and TXN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CSGP, EQT, MAT, RRC, and V missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, NBR and TSLA beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, CNI, COF, and WFRD missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, KMB, KO, PM, SHW, HCA, GM, LMT, and even UPS (despite reporting its Q2 miss) raised their annual guidance.  Later, tech industry magazine Information reported that AAPL is working on a foldable iPhone with a planned release date in 2026.  At the same time, GM announced it has delayed plans for a self-driving version of the Chevrolet Bolt without a steering wheel.  (In 2022, GM have petitioned the NHTSA to allow deployment of 2,500 self-driving vehicles without human controls.)  Later, META released a new version of its Llama AI model, the biggest (largest training data set) model it has released to date.  At the same time, IEX announced it will buy private firm Mott Corp for $1 billion in cash.  (The move would improve IEX’s presence in the medical technologies industry.)  Later, cybersecurity startup Wiz ended talks with GOOGL related to the tech giant’s $23 billion deal to acquire the Israeli firm.  Meanwhile, German private firm Robert Bosch announced it had agreed to buy JCI’s residential ventilation business for $8 billion.  After the close, BA announced it has resumed deliveries of 737 MAX jets to China.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, AMZN unit Whole Foods reported it had reached a settlement in a lawsuit filed against it alleging the company fired an employee over refusing to remove a Black Lives Matter facemask.  Terms of the deal were not disclosed.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that STLA has recalled 19,516 hybrid mini-vans in the US over fire potential from a battery pack, advising any customers to park the vehicles outside until they are repaired.  Later, Italy seized $131 million from the Italian unit of AMZN over alleged tax fraud and illegal labor practices.  At the same time, the US FTC has launched an investigation into individual pricing based on previous purchase history, consumer location data, and other personal data.  The FTC has asked MA, JPM, and six other companies to provide information on their “targeted pricing” practices.  The FTC is also seeking information from software providers and consultancies involved in implementing such systems. 

Elsewhere, the FAA launched a safety review of LUV after a series of near-misses involving their planes.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Transportation announced it has opened a probe into DAL related to the more than 5,000 flights the carrier has canceled due to the global cyber outage last Friday.  (DAL had canceled 30% of its flights Friday through Monday and 13% of its flights Tuesday, while other airlines recovered much more quickly.)  Among the complaints from stranded passengers was phone agent wait times of well over 12 hours for those trying to reroute. After the close, the state of CO announced it has ramped up its response to bird flu and now requires dairies to test their milk every week following outbreaks and many cases of bird to cow transmission in the state.  (CO found 47 cattle herds that have been infected so far, with 60% of those coming in the last month.  This comes after 3.1 million chickens were culled or died of the disease in that state.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red.  Only Taiwan (+2.76%), the region’s biggest mover and New Zealand (+0.85%) were in the green.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-1.32%), Japan (-1.11%), and Hong Kong (-0.91%) led the rest of the region lower.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with only three of the 15 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (-1.00%), DAX (-0.71%), and FTSE (-0.19%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.45% open, the SPY is implying a -0.78% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.15% open after TSLA’s fourth consecutive quarterly miss.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are just on the green side of flat at 4.24% and Oil (WTI) is up nearly one percent to $77.71 per barrel in early trading. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes, Building Permits, June Goods Trade Balance, and June Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, and June New Home Sales (all at 10 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  Fed Governor Bowman also speaks at 4:05 p.m.  The major earnings reports before the open include Wednesday, we hear from, ALLE, APH, T, BSX, CHKP, CME, EQNR, EVR, FI, FLEX, FMX, FTV, GEV, GD, GPI, IP, IPG, KBR, LW, LII, NEE, ODFL, ORAN, OTIS, BPOP, PRG, RCI, ROP, TMHC, TEL, TECK, TDY, THC, TMO, TNL, VRT, and WAB.  Then after the close, ALGN, AMP, ASGN, CSL, CLS, CCS, CHE, CMG, CHDN, CYH, EW, FAF, F, GL, GGG, ICLR, IBM, INVH, KALU, KLAC, KNX, LVS, MTH, MOH, NEM, ORLY, OII, PTEN, PLXS, RJF, RNR, RSG, ROL, NOW, TER, TYL, URI, UHS, VMI, WCN, WFG, WHR, WM, and WH report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, June Core Durable Goods Orders, June Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q2 PCE Prices, Preliminary Q2 GDP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, Preliminary Goods Trade Balance, Preliminary Retail Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, June Core PCE Price Index, June PCE Price Index, June Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, ABBV, AAL, ARCH, AMBP, AZN, BFH, BC, CRS, CARR, CBRE, CX, CMS, CFR, DAR, DOV, DOW, DTE, FCNCA, FCFS, FSV, FCN, GTX, HOG, HAS, HP, HNI, HON, KDP, LAZ, LEA, LKQ, MAS, NDAQ, NYCB, NOC, ORI, PCG, POOL, RS, RCL, RPM, RTX, R, SNY, LUV, STLA, STM, FTI, TSCO, TRU, TPH, UNP, VLO, VC, WST, WEX, WTW, XRX, ALSN, ATR, AJG, BKR, SAM, BYD, CINF, COLM, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, EGO, FBIN, HIG, JNPR, LHX, LPLA, MTX, MHK, NSC, NOV, OLN, DOC, PFG, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TXRH, TFII, VLTO, WY, and WKC report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from MMM, AB, AON, AVTR, BAH, BMY, CNC, CHTR, CL, BEN, GNTX, NWL, POR, SAIA, and TROW.

So far this morning, ALLE, BXMT, BSX, CHKP, CME, EVR, FI, IPG, NAVI, BPOP. SF, TMHC, THC, TMO, TNL, VRT, WNC, and WAB all reported beats on both the revenue and earning lines.  Meanwhile, EQNR, GEV, GPI, IP, KBR, LII, ODFL, OTIS, RCI, ROP, TEL, TECK, and TDY all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, GD beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, T missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, a US District Judge in Philadelphia rejected a lawsuit seeking to block the FTC rule which prohibits “non-compete agreements” as a condition of employment.  Elsewhere, the Equip. Leasing and Finance Assn. (ELFA) said Tuesday that companies borrow 4% less to finance equipment in June. (This came after double-digit growth in the borrowing the two prior months.)  Later, Bloomberg reported that an Pentagon technology services provider owned by LMT was recently hacked, resulting in internal documents being stolen.  (In addition to the Dept. of Defense, the Dept. of Homeland Security, NASA and numerous other agencies and foreign entities were among the customers of that LMT unit.)  Meanwhile, KHC suffered a little blow when its iconic “Wienermobile” hit another car and flipped on a Chicago highway Tuesday.  (Fortunately for hot dog fans, KHC has several Wienermobiles it can roll out to fill the void.)

With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control early in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped down significantly to start the early session. However, they have printed small, indecisive candles since that gap lower. So, there is no unanimity of feeling among traders. All three major index ETFs are below their T-line (8ema), meaning the DIA lost its test from above as of the Tuesday close. So, the premarket looks solidly Bearish and the short-term is likewise pointing down. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain very bullish and still not far from all-time highs. In terms of extension, QQQ is getting a little stretched below its T-line by the morning gap down. At the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in the overbought area. Therefore, those mixed signals mean the market has room to run in either direction if the market can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are strongly red in the early session with TSLA (-8.37%) leading by a wide margin in terms of move and dollar-volume traded early. AAPL (-0.12%) and NFLX (-0.52%) are holding up better than the other big dogs.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw markets open down to varying degrees.  SPY opened 0.06% lower, DIA gapped down 0.31%, and QQQ opened 0.08% lower.  At that point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways for 30 minutes.  However, from there, all three sold off until 2:45 p.m. and then meandered along the bottom the rest of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied, large-ish candles with wicks on both ends in all three major index ETFs.  DIA crossed back below its T-line (8ema) while QQQ pulled fairly far below its own T-line.  SPY sits in about midway between DIA and QQQ in terms of its distance below its T-line. 

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-0.97%) out front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Healthcare (+0.24%) held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.68%, DIA fell 0.93%, and QQQ fell 0.89%. VXX shot up 4.25% to close at a still low at 11.53.  T2122 fell a bit, but remains in the center of its mid-range at 40.26.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields popped again to 4.24% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.08% to close at $80.29 per barrel.  This all happened on average volume in the SPY, DIA and QQQ.  So, again on Friday saw a continuation of the pullback from all-time highs with QQQ leading, SPY in the middle, and DIA following (just as it did on the way up). 

There was no major economic news scheduled for Friday.

In economic speak news, on NY Fed President Williams said Friday that the FOMC is “getting closer” to the point where it can start cutting rates.  Williams said, “I feel like the past three months—and I would include in June, based on what we’ve seen — seems to be getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we’re looking for.”  He continued, “I would like to see more data to gain further confidence inflation is moving sustainably towards our 2% goal. We’ve got a few good months now.”  Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he now only expects one rate cut this year.  Bostic told reporters, “The economy continues to deliver surprises and it continues to be more resilient and more energized than I had forecast, … And as a consequence, I’ve sort of re-calibrated when I think it’s appropriate to move.”  Bostic continued, “We will have to see how the data comes in over the next several weeks.” 

In stock news, on Friday, SERV shares spiked and closed up 187% (after being up more than 241% during the day) after NVDA disclosed it had taken a 10% stake in the company.  Later, Reuters reported that OXY is in talks with Columbia’s Ecopetrol over the sale of a 30% stake in shale oil producer CrownRock by OXY for $3.6 billion.  At the same time, AAL announced it had reached a tentative contract deal with the union representing 28k flight attendants after three years of negotiations.  Later, Bloomberg reported that UL has begun discussions with buyout firms about the possible sale of its ice cream unit, which includes the “Ben & Jerry’s” brand.  (BX is among to top firms on the potential buyer side.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, LLY announced that it had received approval for its weight loss drug tirzepatide from Chinese regulators. (NVO’s Wegovy, a competing GLP-1 weight loss drug had already been approved.)  At the same time, a US District Court ruled that BKNG violated the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act by scraping data from the RYAAY website. Later, Bloomberg reported HE had reached a tentative settlement of more than $4 billion, which would resolve hundreds of lawsuits stemming from the 2023 wildfires on Maui.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the EU is set to impose provisional tariffs on Chinese biodiesel due to unfairly low pricing (government subsidized). Meanwhile, ORCL agreed to pay $115 million to settle a suit alleging the company violated CA consumer privacy by collecting and selling personal data without permission.

Elsewhere on Friday, a court filing by class action law firms accused BRKB of colluding with three other law firms to convince fire victims to reach lowball settlements on suits filed against BRKB’s PacifiCorp.  At the same time, the NHTSA disclosed that STLA paid $190.7 million in US fuel economy penalties for the years 2019 and 2020.  In addition. STLA still owes another $459.7 million in outstanding penalties for the same infractions prior to 2021.  (In 2023, STLA paid $235.5 million for the same thing covering 2018 and $156.6 million covering 2016-2017.)  Later, the Fed fined GDOT $44 million for “unfair and deceptive” practices in its “prepaid debit card” services.  At the close, Bloomberg reported that the FTC has opened an investigations into OXY, HES, and FANG over their communications with OPEC officials. 

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board wit the lone exception of Hong Kong (+1.25%).  Taiwan (-2.68%), Japan (-1.16%), and South Korea (-1.14%) seem to have reacted poorly to Biden dropping out of the US Presidential race just hours before the Asian opens.  This idea was bolstered as China made a surprise interest rate cuts in both short-term and long-term rates.  (Unlike the US, China cut 7-day, one-year, and 5-year PBOC (China’s Central Bank) rates by a tenth of a percent each.  However, in Europe, we see very strong green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.33%), DAX (+1.35%), and FTSE (+0.73%) lead very broad gains of more than a percent on an initial positive reaction to Biden’s Sunday move.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a strong start to the morning.  The DIA implies just a +0.16% open, but the SPY implies a +0.50% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.82% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.22% and Oil (WTI) is off by half a percent to $79.72 per barrel.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports before the open include are limited to IQV, KSPI, TFC, and VZ.  Then, after the close, ARE, BOKF, BRO, CDNS, CLF, CCK, LOGI, MEDP, NUE, NXPI, SAP, VLRS, WRB, and ZION report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get June Existing Home Sales and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, Building Permits, June Goods Trade Balance, June Retail Inventories, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, June New Home Sales, and EIA Weekly Crude Inventories are reported.  Fed Governor Bowman also speaks.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, June Core Durable Goods Orders, June Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q2 PCE Prices, Preliminary Q2 GDP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, Preliminary Goods Trade Balance, Preliminary Retail Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, June Core PCE Price Index, June PCE Price Index, June Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, AOS, ACI, ALFVY, AVY, KO, CMCSA, CSTM, DHR, FELE, FCX, GE, GM, GPC, HCA, HRI, IVZ, KMB, LMT, MCO, MSCI, PCAR, PNR, PM, PII, PHM, DGX, SHW, SPOT, UPS, WBS, GOOGL, ABR, CNI, COF, CB, CSGP, EWBC, ENVA, EQT, GOOG, MTDR, MAT, NBR, PKG, RRC, STX, TSLA, TXN, V, and WFRD report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from, ALLE, APH, T, BSX, CHKP, CME, EQNR, EVR, FI, FLEX, FMX, FTV, GEV, GD, GPI, IP, IPG, KBR, LW, LII, NEE, ODFL, ORAN, OTIS, BPOP, PRG, RCI, ROP, TMHC, TEL, TECK, TDY, THC, TMO, TNL, VRT, WAB, ALGN, AMP, ASGN, CSL, CLS, CCS, CHE, CMG, CHDN, CYH, EW, FAF, F, GL, GGG, ICLR, IBM, INVH, KALU, KLAC, KNX, LVS, MTH, MOH, NEM, ORLY, OII, PTEN, PLXS, RJF, RNR, RSG, ROL, NOW, TER, TYL, URI, UHS, VMI, WCN, WFG, WHR, WM, and WH.  On Thursday, ABBV, AAL, ARCH, AMBP, AZN, BFH, BC, CRS, CARR, CBRE, CX, CMS, CFR, DAR, DOV, DOW, DTE, FCNCA, FCFS, FSV, FCN, GTX, HOG, HAS, HP, HNI, HON, KDP, LAZ, LEA, LKQ, MAS, NDAQ, NYCB, NOC, ORI, PCG, POOL, RS, RCL, RPM, RTX, R, SNY, LUV, STLA, STM, FTI, TSCO, TRU, TPH, UNP, VLO, VC, WST, WEX, WTW, XRX, ALSN, ATR, AJG, BKR, SAM, BYD, CINF, COLM, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, EGO, FBIN, HIG, JNPR, LHX, LPLA, MTX, MHK, NSC, NOV, OLN, DOC, PFG, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TXRH, TFII, VLTO, WY, and WKC report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from MMM, AB, AON, AVTR, BAH, BMY, CNC, CHTR, CL, BEN, GNTX, NWL, POR, SAIA, and TROW.

So far this morning, IQV and TFC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, VZ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In miscellaneous news, after the close Thursday, a federal appeals court blocked the Biden Administration from continuing to implement a new student debt relief plan at the request of seven GOP-led states.  (The Dept. of Education said it had already granted $5.5 billion in debt relief to 414k borrowers under that “SAVE” plan.)  At the same time, the IMF said the US should raise taxes to reduce the US federal debt and put off any rate cut until at least late 2024.  Meanwhile, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac told Reuters Thursday that the US 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to the lowest rate since mid-March, with the national average down to 6.77% from the prior week’s 6.89%.  Finally, Reuters reported that the state of CA reported that TSLA car registrations fell in Q2.  TSLA’s 52,211 new registrations for Q2 was down and a third consecutive quarter of falling new registrations. 

With that background, it looks as if the markets are enjoying the Sunday and overnight news. All three major index ETFs gapped up to start the premarket session. Since that point, SPY and QQQ have followed through with good-sized white-body candles showing no wick at this point. For its part, DIA gapped less and has given a smaller white-body candle as it retests its T-line (8ema) from below. So, the premarket looks strongly Bullish, but the short-term trend is Bearish. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain very bullish and not far from all-time highs. In terms of extension, QQQ is the most extended to the downside, but the early session action has relieve the worst of its over-done issue. At the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction if the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are strongly green in the early session with the biggest dog (NVDA, +2.06%) leading that way again both in terms of move and volume. However, the least of the big dog movers is NFLX (+0.40%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gave us divergent gaps to start the day.  However, by mid-morning the three major index ETFs had gotten their direction synchronized again.  SPY gapped up 0.29%, DIA gapped down 0.26%, and QQQ gapped up 0.77%.  However, after the gap up and bobbing around for 45 minutes, SPY sold off sharply until 12:30, bounced for an hour, and then started another leg lower.  It ended the day on a modest bounce.  At the same time, after its open, DIA followed-through to the upside for an hour.  Then, it too also sold off sharply until 12:30, ground sideways for 75 minutes, and then started its own second leg lower, ending the day on a small 30-minute bounce.  Meanwhile, after the large gap higher, QQQ immediately sold off sharply until noon, bounced significantly for 75 minutes, and then started another leg back toward the noon lows.  Still, QQQ bounced more sharply than its peer EFTs over the final 40-minutes.  This action gave us large-body, black candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY had wicks at both ends, failing a retest of the T-line (8ema) from below.  QQQ had a wick only at the lower end and it was a larger wick than the other two had.  However, DIA printed a new all-time high, leaving a large upper wick but did not even approach its own T-line from above. 

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Healthcare (-2.22%) way out front (by almost 0.75%) leading the market lower.  On the other side, Energy (-0.06%) held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.77%, DIA fell 1.26%, and QQQ fell 0.47%.  VXX gained another 2.88% to close above 11 at a still very low at 11.06.  T2122 dropped out of its overbought territory, all the way down to the center of its mid-range at 46.34.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields popped to 4.197% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.78% to close at $82.20 per barrel. This happened on heavy volume in DIA, above-average volume in QQQ, and average volume in the SPY.  So, again on Thursday we saw a head fake move higher at the open.  However, the Bears were in command all day after the open. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 243k (compared to a forecast of 229k and the prior week’s 223k).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also up and above predictions at 1,867k (versus the 1,860k forecast and the prior week’s 1,847k reading).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was up to 15.2 (compared to the June -2.5 value).  Later, the June US Leading Economic Indicators Index was up and a tick better than anticipate at -0.2% (compared to a -0.3% forecast and May’s -0.4%).  Then, after the close, the Fed’s Weekly Balance Sheet showed a $16 billion reduction, from $7.224 trillion to $7.208 trillion.

In economic speak news, on Thursday, Dallas Fed President Logan lauded progress made by the Fed in making sure that banks can tap Fed emergency liquidity if needed.  Logan said, “(The Fed Discount Window) has been effective in supporting the stability of the banking and financial systems and, in turn, the flow of credit to households and businesses.”  She continued, “A critical element of ensuring the safety of the banking system is making sure banks are prepared to use the discount window if circumstances call for it.”  Logan said more than 5,000 deposit-taking banks have completed the paperwork to be able to access the Discount Window in a crisis.  In addition, those banks have increased the pool of collateral available to back loans through the window from $1 trillion in 2023 to $3 trillion now.

After the close, DIT, ISRG, NFLX, and WAL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AIR and PPG reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, SCHL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, the Financial Times reported that WBD is discussing the potential to break up the company to boost stock valuations.  At the same time, F laid out plans to rework a Canadian plant that had been intended to build a future electric vehicle (starting in 2025) to instead build larger, gasoline-powered F-series pickup trucks.  Later, the Financial Times reported that META is in talks to purchase a 5% stake in eyewear maker ESLOF (EssilorLuxottica, which makes Ray-Ban).  At the same time, Adobe Analytics said that AMZN Prime Day boosted US online retail shopping to a record $14.2 billion.  This was up 11% from the event in 2023.  Later, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is in talks to license more Hollywood films, in order to boost its streaming content portfolio.  Elsewhere, NFLX announced it is discontinuing its cheapest “$11.99 Basic Plan” (the lowest ad-free plan).  NFLX had stopped taking new Basic Plan subscriptions in January.

Meanwhile, SPWR plummeted 40% after it informed clients that it was pausing some operations.  The cessations include ending some leases and power purchase agreements as well as halting new product shipping.  Elsewhere, SMAR share spiked (but ended only 5.45% higher) after Reuters reported the company is considering buyout offers from private equity firms.  After the close, Reuters reported that OpenAI has begun talks with AVGO over the development of a new AI chip, in an effort to overcome shortages of AI chips from NVDA and AMD.  (Earlier this year, OpenAI CEO Altman made news when he announced plans to raise billions to be used to set up AI chip manufacturing plants in partnership with TSM, INTC, and Korean Samsung.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the NHTSA announces that HYMTF (Hyundai) will recall 67k vehicles over fuel pump issues that can cause a loss of power during operation.  Later, C announced it had reached a settlement with a Montreal exchange to resolve claims the bank had failed to report options trades over the exchange’s reporting threshold.  The amount of the settlement was about $150k.  At the same time, the highest court in Trinidad and Tobago reaffirmed a decision that recognizes COP’s $1.33 billion arbitration claim against the country of Venezuela. The decision will enable COP to begin legal action to seize Venezuelan assets in that country to satisfy the claim.  Later, the NHTSA announced that STLA will recall 24k Chrysler hybrid minivans over fire risk. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly down with only three of the 12 exchanges hanging onto green territory.  Taiwan (-2.26%) and Hong Kong (-2.03%) were the worst performers (by a percent), but losses were widespread.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape as only three of 15 bourses are in the green at midday.  Russia (+1.39%) is a notable outlier.  However, the CAC (-0.56%), DAX (-0.70%), and FTSE (-0.54%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.16% open, the SPY is implying a -0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.15% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are rising again to 4.203% and Oil WTI) is off 0.39% to $82.50 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Friday.  However, Fed members Williams (10:40 a.m.) and Bostic (12:45 p.m.) speak.  The major earnings reports before the open include AXP, ALV, CMA, EEFT, FITB, HAL, HBAN, RF, SDVKY, SLB, TRV, and WIT.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

So far this morning, CMA, FITB, HBAN, RF, and SLB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (Apparently, the hand-wringing over regional banks and loans is misplaced so far.)  Meanwhile, AXP, EEFT, HAL, SDVKY, and TRV all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ALV missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, after the close Thursday, a federal appeals court blocked the Biden Administration from continuing to implement a new student debt relief plan at the request of seven GOP-led states.  (The Dept. of Education said it had already granted $5.5 billion in debt relief to 414k borrowers under that “SAVE” plan.)  At the same time, the IMF said the US should raise taxes to reduce the US federal debt and put off any rate cut until at least late 2024.  Meanwhile, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac told Reuters Thursday that the US 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to the lowest rate since mid-March, with the national average down to 6.77% from the prior week’s 6.89%.  Finally, Reuters reported that the state of CA reported that TSLA car registrations fell in Q2.  TSLA’s 52,211 new registrations for Q2 was down and a third consecutive quarter of falling new registrations. 

In overnight news, computer systems around the world failed Friday.  This took firms from banking, to stock exchanges, to airlines offline.  So far, there seem to be two unrelated causes.  The first was a MSFT Windows crashing due to a conflict between that system and CRWD’s security software.  Separately, MSFT reported outages of its Azure and Office 365 cloud systems.  Combined, this caused an unprecedented and widespread computer outage globally.  The exact causes are unknown, but it is likely to be related to a software update, possibly by MSFT since it had two separate set of issues.

With that background, it looks as if the markets are indecisive again this morning. SPY and QQQ gapped higher while DIA gapped a bit lower to start the premarket. All three major index ETFs have put in mostly wick since that point as the Bulls and Bears remain uncertain who has the strength in the early session. Overall, the short-term trend is Bearish. The rotation out of tech and into small-caps and the traditional mega-cap names also took a break (or stopped) on Thursday. However, for the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain very bullish. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are stretched away from their T-line (8ema). Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is back down into the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction if the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. AAPL (+0.83%) and GOOGL (+0.74%) lead the way. Obviously, due to the overnight issues, MSFT (-1.38%) lags far behind and leads the morning dollar-volume traded. Lastly, don’t forget that it is Friday, Pay Day, and there is a weekend news cycle ahead. So, prepare your account for that situation.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday saw divergence in the market again.  SPY gapped down 1.05%, QQQ gapped down 1.63%, and DIA gapped up 0.24%.  Those opens were an indication of the day ahead for all three major index ETFs.  DIA spent the day slowly and steadily rallying after the gap up.  Meanwhile, QQQ and SPY followed their gaps down with bearish follow-through.  However, all three did bob along their extremes the last couple hours (DIA along the highs and SPY/QQQ along the lows).  This action gave us a large body white candle with a small upper wick in the DIA, a gap-down black-bodied Inverted Hammer type candle that crossed below its T-line (8ema) in the SPY, and a very large gap-down, very-large, black-bodied candle that crossed far below its T-line in the QQQ.  (This was the QQQ’s worst day since 2022, hit by a double whammy of isolationist comments from Trump and a Bloomberg report that the Biden Administration may again tighten export restrictions on tech products being sold to China.)

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-3.48%) way, way out front (by almost 2%) leading the market lower.  On the other side, the Consumer Defensive (+1.14%) sector held up better than the others.  At the same time, SPY fell 1.40%, DIA gained a 0.55%, and QQQ plummeted 2.94%.  VXX gained 3.27% to close at a still extremely low at 10.75.  T2122 fell again but remains in the top half of its overbought territory at 91.48.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped again to 4.157% and Oil (WTI) spiked 2.67% to close at $82.92 per barrel.  This happened on very heavy volume in QQQ, greater-than-average volume in DIA, and below-average volume in SPY.  So, again Wednesday we saw a divergent day.  DIA powered its way higher, meanwhile Trump’s comments helped crush the big tech stocks that tend to lead the SPY and QQQ.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included June Building Permits, which were about as expected at 1.446 million (compared to a 1.400 million forecast and the May 1.399 million reading).  At the same time, the June Housing Starts were stronger than expected at 1.353 million (versus the 1.300 million forecast and the May 1.314 million reading).  Later, June Industrial Production (Month-on-Month) was down but higher than predicted at +0.6% (compared to a +0.3% forecast but lower than the May +0.9%). On an annual basis, June Industrial Production was up sharply at +1.58% versus May’s +0.34%.  Later, EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a much larger drawdown than anticipated at -4.870 million barrels (compared to a forecasted -0.900 million barrels and the previous week’s -3.443 million barrels). 

In economic speak news, on Wednesday Fed Governor Waller indicated that a rate cut “is drawing closer.”  However, he also indicates that likely means September or later by saying, “I believe current data are consistent with achieving a ‘soft landing,’ and I will be looking for data over the next couple months to buttress this view.” Waller went on, “While I don’t believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted.”  He continued, saying that under the most optimistic scenario, “I could envision a rate cut in the not-too-distant future.”

After the close, AA, OZK, CCI, DFS, EFX, STLD, and SNV all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, KMI, LBRT, and UAL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, FNB and WTFC beat on the revenue line but missed on earnings.

In stock news, on Wednesday, Information (Technology trade publication) reported that both GOOGL and MSFT are offering Chinese companies access to NVDA’s high-end chips (illegal to export to China due to sanctions) via cloud services.  At the same time, LLY (-3.82%) and NVO (-03.87%) stocks fell after private Swiss competitor Roche announced positive Phase 1 study results of its oral GLP-1 drug.  Later, DFS said it will sell its student loan portfolio to CG and KKR for up to $10.8 billion.  (This is a premium over the $10.1 billion principal owed on the loans but far below expected total payback if the loans are repaid with interest.  Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that BYND has initiated debt restructuring discussions with bondholders due to declining liquidity that has resulted from revenue declines.  After the close, DRI announced it has struck a deal to acquire CHUY for $605 million ($37.50 per share).  (CHUY closed at $25.27 per share.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, COF announced it will commit $265 billion over 5 years to “lending, philanthropy and investment” (read 99.9% to lending operations and investment).  This was done in an attempt to gain approval of its acquisition of DFS and included a promise to maintain lending operations to low- and-moderate-income communities.  Later, the NHTSA announced BMWYY will recall 1,145 US vehicles over air bag concerns.  At the same time, EU antitrust regulators are soliciting rivals’ opinions on a deal between GOOGL and Korean-based Samsung on AI chatbots.  Later, the NTSB announce it has scheduled 20 hours of hearings related to the BA 737 MAX 9 in-flight door plug blowout on an ALK flight in January.  Hearings will take place August 6-7, with 10 hours each day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned slightly to the green on breadth but with the biggest movers still reeling from Trump’s comments.  Japan (-2.36%) and Tiawan (-1.56%) remain scared of being left to the wolf (China) by a transactional and isolationist MAGA administration.  Meanwhile, India (+0.76%) was by far the biggest gainer in the region.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly in the green with only three of 15 exchanges showing red at midday.  The CAC (+0.48%), DAX (+0.19%), and FTSE (+0.58%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the session.  The DIA implies a -0.16% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.35% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back up to 4.186% and Oil (WTI) is just on the red side of flat at $82.78 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), June US Leading Economic Indicators Index (10 a.m.), and the Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Daly (6:05 p.m.) and Fed Governor Bowman (7:45 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include ABT, ALK, BX, CTAS, CHI, DPZ, HXL, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, NOK, NVS, SNA, TSM, and TXT.  Then, after the close, AIR, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and SCHL report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Fed members Williams and Bostic speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Friday, AXP, ALV, CMA, EEFT, FITB, HAL, HBAN, RF, SDVKY, SLB, TRV, and WIT report.

So far this morning, ABT, BKU, CBSH, CHI, HXL, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, NVS, TSM, TELNY, TLSNY, and VIRT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DPZ, MMC, NOK, and TXT missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BX and TCBI beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, SNA missed on both the top and bottom line.

In miscellaneous news, Bloomberg reported Wednesday that US is suffering from a massive natural gas glut.  Projections now expect that by October, inventories are expected to reach the highest level since at least 2016.  This is the reason cited for the collapse of the October-January Futures spread.  Elsewhere, President Biden was diagnosed with COVID-19.  Later, the US Dept. of Education announced adjustments to a prior plan which will forgive another $1.2 billion in student debt (covering 35k public service workers).  Finally, at the RNC Convention, the newly appointed VP candidate Vance blamed US wage losses on China.  Felon Navarro also went directly from prison to the stage.  Rather than his previous anti-China talking points, this time (probably understandably) he continued his GOP victimhood agenda, lying about the 2020 election, his plan to steal it, the January 6 attack on the capital, and his conviction for defying a Congressional subpoena.

With that background, it looks as if the markets are indecisive this morning with none of the three major index ETFs showing a premarket candles that is more body than wick. Overall, the short-term trend is mixed (QQQ and SPY down while DIA is up). We are seeing continued rotation out of tech and into small-caps and the traditional mega-cap names. However, for the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they are extremely bullish. In terms of extension, only DIA is stretched (to the upside). Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator remains well overbought. Therefore, the market may still be in need of more rest or a pullback. (Just remember, the market can stay over-extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting a turn too early.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning. NVDA (+2.17%) and AMD (+1.88%) trying to mount a comeback by the AI chip leaders.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets jumped higher again on Tuesday.  SPY gapped up 0.25%, DIA gapped up 0.37%, and QQQ gapped up 0.29% to start the day.  From there, was saw divergence. SPY chopped its way sideways until 2:15 p.m. before rallying into the close.  At the same time, DIA rallied sharply from the open until 11:15 a.m.  Then it meandered sideways until 1:30 p.m. before rallying more modestly but steadily the rest of the day.  For its part, after the gap higher, QQQ immediately faded the gap and sold off to reach the lows of the day at 12:30 p.m.  The rest of the say saw a modest QQQ rally that got it back just above the prior close by the end of the session. This action gave us a huge, gap-up, white candle in the DIA (with tiny upper wick), a gap-up white-bodied candle in the SPY, and a black-bodied long-legged Spinning Top in the QQQ. DIA and SPY both printed new all-time highs and new all-time high closes.  Meanwhile, QQQ retested its T-line (8ema) from above and passed the test again.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Industrials (+2.72%) leading the market, but the gains were wide-spread with five sectors up more than 1.70%.  On the other side, Energy (+0.14%) was by far the laggard sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.58%, DIA gained a whopping 1.81%, and QQQ gained 0.04%. (It is worth noting that for the fourth consecutive day we have seen a rotation into small-caps with IWM (+3.76%) way out in front of the three major index ETFs.  VXX gained 0.97% to close at a still extremely low at 10.41.  T2122 spiked to the extreme top end of its overbought territory at 99.20.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped sharply to 4.161% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.31% to close at $80.84 per barrel.  This happened on very heavy volume (twice the average volume) in DIA, but less than average volume in SPY and QQQ.  So, Tuesday was a divergent day with a modest selloff in most of the tech names that have led markets for ages.  NVDA (-1.62%), GOOGL (-1.40%), and META (-1.28%) fell.  However, among the DIA names, UNH (+6.47%), CAT (+4.31%), BA (+3.91%), and HD (+2.97%) spiked.  (It is worth noting that 19 of the 30 were up more than 1.00%.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included the June Import Price Index, which was flat and lower than expected at 0.0% (compared to a forecast of +0.2% but higher than the May -0.2% reading).  On the other side, the June Export Price Index was also lower than expected at -0.5% (versus a -0.1% forecast but not as far down as in May when the value was -0.7%).  At the same time, June Core Retail Sales were much stronger than predicted at +0.9% (compared to a forecasted +0.2% and a May reading of +0.4%).  For the headline number, June Retail Sales were flat at 0.0% (versus the forecast of -0.3% and the May value of +0.3%).  Later, May Business Inventories grew 0.5% (compared to a +0.4% forecast and April’s +0.3%).  At the same time, May Retail Inventories were flat at 0.0% (versus a 0.0% forecast and down from April’s +0.3%).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a significant drawdown of 4.440 million barrels (compared to the prior week’s -1.923-million-barrel drawdown). 

In economic speak news, on Tuesday, Fed Governor Kugler expressed cautious optimism that inflation is falling back to the FOMC’s 2% target.  She said, “We’re seeing more progress on all three categories now.” (She was referring to inflation on goods, services, and housing.)  Kugler continued, “I’m cautiously optimistic that we’re seeing progress and the type of progress that we need to get back to 2%.”  She indicated that the job market is rebalancing, saying, “This continued rebalancing suggests that inflation will continue to move down toward our 2% target.”  She also said that if current trends continue, “I anticipate that it will be appropriate to begin easing monetary policy later this year.”

After the close, HWC, IBKR, and OMC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, JBHT missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, PM announced it would be expanding the production of its nicotine pouches (Zyn), investing $600 million to build a new CO plant to expand their production.  Later, Russian tech firm YNDX spun off a portion of its business called Nebius Group, located in Amsterdam, for $5.4 billion.  (EU sanctions against the founder of YNDX were lifted in March, allowing the deal to proceed.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that VZ is in talks over the possibly of selling 5,000-6,000 cell service towers across the US.  VZ is reportedly looking for $3 billion.  (In 2015, VZ sold 11,000 towers to AMT for $5 billion.)  Meanwhile, TCRT announced a 1-for-10 reverse split to take effect July 17 at 5 p.m.  At the same time, 28k flight attendants will vote on whether to authorize a strike as their AFA union will begin negotiating a new contract with UAL.  After the close, Bloomberg reported that TSLA is hiring hundreds of new employees for its yet to be approved robotaxi program.  (Each robotaxi must constantly be monitored by a human supervisor due to deficiencies in the long claimed “full self-driving” system.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that the FTC has requested details on its deal to hire the top executives and researchers from AI startup Adept.  (Similar investigations are also ongoing related to MSFT and GOOGL hiring away the main talent from AI startups.)  At the same time, SKX filed suit against private brand LL Bean, alleging the latter infringe on two of SKX’s patents.  Later, Reuters reported that the European Commission has told VLKAF (Volkswagen) and BMWYY (BMW) that they may consider lowering the tariffs on those two carmakers’ imports from China of electric vehicles.  (The article said the EC is willing to classify the two automakers as “cooperating companies,” which would make them eligible for 20.8% tariffs compared to the general China EV tariff of 37.6%.)  Meanwhile, TRP said that an arbitration tribunal has thrown out its claim seeking to recover $15 billion from the US government related to the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline.  At the same time, a group of restaurants in the Houston area filed a $100 million lawsuit against CNP alleging the utility has displayed incompetence and negligence in efforts to restore power quickly following Hurricane Beryl. 

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed. Taiwan (-0.95%) and South Korea (-0.80%) paced the losses while New Zealand (+0.88%) and Australia (+0.73%) led the gainers.  In Europe, with the notable exception of Russia (+1.39%) we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-0.57%), DAX (-0.81%), and FTSE (-0.33%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, markets are looking to gap lower on Trump’s statements that foreign nations (Taiwan and South Korea…and by implication Europe) should pay for US military facilities and expenditures).  The DIA implies a -0.34% open, the SPY is implying a -1.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.55% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.172% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $81.15 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes June Building Permits and June Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.), June Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), and Fed Beige Book (2 p.m.).  Fed Governor Waller also speaks at 9:35 a.m.  The major earnings reports before the open include ALLY, ASML, CFG, ELV, FHN, JNJ, NTRS, PLD, SYF, and USB.  Then, after the close, AA, CCI, DFS, EFX, KMI, LBRT, STLD, SNV, UAL, and WTFC report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly, Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, US Leading Economic Indicators Index, Fed’s Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Daly and Fed Governor Bowman.  Finally, on Friday, Fed members Williams and Bostic speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Thursday, ABT, ALK, BX, CTAS, CHI, DPZ, HXL, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, NOK, NVS, SNA, TSM, TXT, AIR, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and SCHL report.  Finally, on Friday, AXP, ALV, CMA, EEFT, FITB, HAL, HBAN, RF, SDVKY, SLB, TRV, and WIT report.

So far this morning, ASML, ELV, JNJ, NTRS, SYF, and USB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ALLY and ASAZY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CFG and FHN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  ASML and ALLY posted significant earnings beats.  However, ASML lowered forward guidance.

In miscellaneous news, BAC released the results of its survey of fund managers.  This time, the survey finds that fund managers are still bullish on stocks.  However, growth expectations are the lowest since March of 2022.  27% now expect a softening global economy over the next 12 months (up sharply from just 6% feeling that way in June).  Nonetheless, 68% still expect a soft landing in the US, with another 18% expecting no landing at all.  Only 11% are expecting a hard landing. In addition, 67% of the surveyed expect no recession in the next 12 months.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Wall Street’s biggest banks have pulled off a clean sweep this quarter, all reporting higher-than-expected gains. They have averaged an 18% increase in revenue during Q2. Finally, after the close, Cox Automotive reported car repossessions were up 23% in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023.

With that background, it looks as if the market is dropping and will be seeking shelter after the disgraced ex-President’s remarks. QQQ gapped down through its T-line (8ema), SPY gapped lower and is now retesting its T-line from above, but DIA is just giving a modest lower candle in the early session after a massive gain Tuesday. All three major index ETFs have printed a black-body candle since the start of the early session. Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish but perhaps under pressure. We are seeing rotation out of tech and into small-caps and the traditional mega-cap names. However, for the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they are extremely bullish. In terms of extension, only DIA is stretched (to the upside). Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator remains extremely overbought. Therefore, the market may be in need of some rest or a pullback. (Just remember, the market can stay over-extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting a turn too early.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning. AMD (-4.51%), NVDA (-4.05%) and any other name that depends on Taiwan is down hard on Trump’s isolationist comments. Only INTC (+0.58%) has managed to stay on the green side of flat among those market leaders.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets jumped higher to start the week.  SPY gapped up 0.37%, DIA gapped up 0.57%, and QQQ gapped up 0.40% to start the day.  From there, SPY and QQQ rallied steadily to follow-through and reach the highs of the day at about 11:25 a.m. After that, both sold back off steadily into the gap again at 2:15 p.m.  At that point, both SPY and QQQ made a modest rally back above the opening level before selling sharply the last 30 minutes of the day.  Meanwhile, after its gap higher, DIA sold off for 30 minutes before following the two broader major market index ETFs higher until noon.  Then it followed the others, selling back into the gap and reaching the lows at 1:40 p.m. before rallying back above the open.  DIA finally got in-sync with its broader brothers selling off hard the last 30 minutes of the day.  This back-and-forth action gave us indecisive, black-bodied Doji candles in all three major index ETFs. SPY and DIA both printed new all-time highs and new all-time high closes.  QQQ retested its T-line (8ema) from above and passed the test.

On the day, the 10 sectors were split evenly Monday with five in the green and five in the red.  Financial Services (+1.35%), Energy (+1.19%), and Industrials (+1.12%) led the gainers while Utilities (-1.99%) was by far (by more than 1.20%) paced the losers. At the same time, SPY gained 0.28%, DIA gained 0.51%, and QQQ gained 0.27%. (It is worth noting that for the third day in a row, IWM (+1.90%) was well out in front of the three major index ETFs.  VXX gained 1.48% to close at a still extremely low at 10.31.  T2122 fell just a bit again, but remains in the top end of its overbought territory at 95.61.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields popped to 4.23% and Oil (WTI) fell just a bit to close at $81.92 per barrel.  So, Monday was the volatile day where markets all gapped higher, rallied to the highs in the morning, sold off to the lows in the afternoon only to bounce the last few minutes.  This happened on above-average volume in DIA, average volume in the QQQ, and below-average volume in the SPY.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday was limited to NY Empire State Mfg.  Index, which came in slightly lower than expected at -6.60.  Compare this to a forecast of -5.50 and the June reading of -6.00.

In economic speak news, on Monday, Fed Chair Powell indicated that the recent CPI data had boosted FOMC confidence that inflation is falling.  When asked about Fed confidence, Powell said, “What increases that confidence in that is more good inflation data, and lately here we have been getting some of that.”  Powell went on to say that he does not expect the Fed to wait until inflation reaches the 2% target before cutting rates, because that could undercut economic expansion.  He said, “The implication of that is that if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long.”  Powell was also questioned about whether he will serve out his term, given the questioning of FOMC policies during his tenure.  Powell bluntly answered “Yes” (indicating he will serve his entire term).  Later, San Francisco Fed President Daly echoed Powell’s remarks on confidence.  She said, “Confidence is growing that we are getting nearer a sustainable pace of getting inflation back down to 2%.”  She continued, “I’m not going to tell you when the rate cut is, how many rate cuts might come,” … “Over time, as inflation comes down and the labor market slows, we have to make sure that we’re holding rates high enough that we don’t lose that inflation fight, but not hold them too long and risk worsening the labor market to a point where it’s challenging for people to get jobs.” 

In stock news, on Monday, CLF announced it is acquiring Canadian steel company Stelco for $2.5 billion.  At the same time, SEDG announced it would lay off 400 (7% of workforce) employees in Israel as it tries to improve profitability.  Later, M announced it had ended acquisition talks with two private equity firms.  (The talks had been ongoing for months.)  After the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that a “hacktivist” group (Nullbulge) has obtained and leaked data from DIS’s internal communication system. The released data included everything from computer code, to excerpts from financial reports, to assessments of job candidates, to photos of employee dogs.  At the same time, GM declined to reiterate its 2025 forecast of producing 1 million electric vehicles.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the French competition authority confirmed that it is investigating NVDA related to “anti-competitive practices.”  At the same time, UBER lost an appeal of its lower court victory (which had ruled UBER rival taxi operators would be charged a 20% tax on profits).  Later, PYPL was fined $27.3 million by the Polish antitrust agency for failing to spell out which activities may cause consumers to be fined (ambiguous contract fine print).  At the same time, VRTX sued the US Dept. of HHS, seeking a court declaration that the company’s financial support for some patients does not violate US anti-kickback laws.

Overnight, Asian markets had seven of 12 exchanges in the green.  However, Hong Kong (-1.60%) was the biggest mover while Shenzhen (+0.86%) led the gainers.  In Europe, the bourses lean heavily to the red side at midday with 12 of 15 exchanges in the red.  The CAC (-0.79%), DAX (-0.48%), and FTSE (-0.29%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Russia (+1.39%) is again an outlier.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing to a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a +0.15% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.21% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down sharply to 4.18% and Oil (WTI) is off just over one percent to $80.94 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes June Import Price Index, June Export Price Index, June Core Retail Sales, and June Retail Sales (all at 8:30 a.m.), May Business Inventories and May Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include BAC, SCHW, MS, PNC, PGR, STT, and UNH.  Then, after the close, IBKR, JBHT, and OMC report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, June Building Permits, June Housing Starts, June Industrial Production, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Beige Book are reported.  Fed Governor Waller also speaks.  Then Thursday, we get Weekly, Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, US Leading Economic Indicators Index, Fed’s Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Daly and Fed Governor Bowman.  Finally, on Friday, Fed members Williams and Bostic speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ALLY, ASML, CFG, ELV, FHN, JNJ, NTRS, PLD, SYF, USB, AA, CCI, DFS, EFX, KMI, LBRT, STLD, SNV, UAL, and WTFC report.  On Thursday, ABT, ALK, BX, CTAS, CHI, DPZ, HXL, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, NOK, NVS, SNA, TSM, TXT, AIR, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and SCHL report.  Finally, on Friday, AXP, ALV, CMA, EEFT, FITB, HAL, HBAN, RF, SDVKY, SLB, TRV, and WIT report.

So far this morning, BAC and UNH have reported beats on both their revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, PNC missed on revenue while beating significantly on the earnings line.  (SCHW, MS, PGR, and STT report closer to the opening bell.)

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Monday that the cost to transport a standard 40-foot shipping container from Shanghai to New York is pushing $10k ($9,387).  This is more than double the rate in February but still well below the early pandemic high of almost $16k.  The increase in costs is mostly attributed to attacks from Yemeni Houthi rebels (which have caused longer routes around the horn of Africa).  This increase in shipping costs will either pressure company margins, contribute to inflation, or both as the Israeli invasion of Gaza shows no signs of an Israeli withdrawal yet.  Elsewhere, the CDC sent a field team to CO to help the state deal with an outbreak of bird flu after four confirmed cases and a fifth suspected case were reported.  (Based on current information, the CDC said it believes the risk to people in the public are low.  However, farm workers and livestock herds are at significant risk.)  Meanwhile, Bolivia announced the discovery of the largest natural gas field found since 2005.  The single 1.7 trillion cubic feet field (located in northern Bolivia) is about 17.5% the size of the total US natural gas reserves. (However, bear in mind that it will take years to develop the field and build the infrastructure to transport the natural gas to global markets from the land-locked nation.)

With that background, it looks as if the SPY and QQQ are bullish again this morning while DIA is much more undecided. SPY and QQQ both opened the premarket slightly lower, but have put in white-bodied candles with only lower wick since that point. Meanwhile, DIA also opened slightly lower and also ran higher before backing down again to have a high-wick, Doji candle at this point. All three major index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema). So, regardless of your timeframe, the market trend (short-term, mid-term, or longer-term) remains very bullish. In terms of extension, DIA remains the only one of the three that can be said to be stretched above its T-line. However, the T2122 indicator still remains in the top end of its overbought range. Therefore, the market may be in need of some rest or a pullback. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning. TSLA (+1.29%) is again the biggest mover and also leading the market in premarket dollar volume traded. Only MSFT (-0.02%) is below break-even among those market-moving stocks.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bears just couldn’t stand their success from the day prior and let the Bulls run on Friday. SPY gapped up 0.23%, DIA gapped up 0.30%, and QQQ opened up by 0.12%.  From there, all three major index ETFs rallied sharply until 11:30, took a one-hour rest and then rallied again to the highs of the day at 1:55 p.m.  At that point, we saw very modest profit-taking and a sideways grind until 3:30 p.m.  However, traders took profits hard the last 30 minutes, giving back half or more of the day’s gains.  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied candles in all three with large upper wicks.  SPY and QQQ printed Bullish Harami candles with QQQ crossing back above its T-line (8ema).  SPY also printed another new all-time high.  Meanwhile, DIA also printed a new all-time high and new all-time high close.  This happened on well above-average volume in DIA, as well as just below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+1.17%) out in front leading the rest of the sectors higher.  Meanwhile, Energy (+0.31%) was the laggard sector. At the same time, SPY gained 0.61%, DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ gained 0.59%. VXX fell 1.74% to close at an extremely low at 10.16.  T2122 fell just a bit to remain in the top end of its overbought territory at 96.34.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped to 4.181% and Oil (WTI) was down almost half a percent to close at $82.24 per barrel.  So, Friday was the Bull’s day all day with significant profit-taking the last 30 minutes giving back a fair amount of the daily gains. It is worth noting that INTC (+2.96%), IBM (+2.55%), and AMGN (+1.77%) led the DIA to its new all-time highs…but it was a broad-based move with 22 of the 30 DIA tickers in the green.  Meanwhile, 401 of 501 of the SPY were green and 81 of 101 of the QQQ were above break-even.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included June Core PPI, which came in hotter than expected at +0.4% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and May’s +0.3%).  This led to a June PPI of +0.2% (versus a forecasted +0.1% and May’s 0.0% value).  Later, Preliminary July Michigan Consumer Sentiment was lower than predicted at 66.0 (compared to the 68.5 forecasted and June’s 68.2 reading).  At the same time, the July Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations were also lower than anticipated at 67.2 (versus the 69.8 forecast and June’s 69.6 value).  On the forward-outlook side, the July Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were 2.9% (in-line with the forecast and a tick better than June’s 3.0% number).  In the longer term, July’s Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were better than predicted, also at 2.9% (versus a 3.0% estimate and June reading).

The US Dept. of Agriculture WASDE report also came out Friday.  It raised estimates for US corn production and reduced the soybean production estimate.  (Forecasts of large US crops in both have pushed both commodity prices down since the Spring.  The USDA also lowered its US national corn inventory (not growing, in storage) estimate by 8.4% from June.  (This could mean short-term prices may increase, which is what Friday’s market saw.) 

In stock news, on Friday, LUV and ACHR announced they have agreed to mutually develop operational plans for electric air taxis in CA and TX airports.  At the same time, Reuters reported exclusively that EADSY (Airbus) has launched a cost cutting program that includes a headcount freeze aimed tackling a problem with increased per jet cost of production.  (No layoff plans were reported, but “all costs” were on the table per the article.)  Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that UL is planning massive layoffs in Europe, with layoffs of a third of officer workers (roughly 3,200) taking place between now and the end of 2025.  Later, T announced (after an SEC filing revealed) that it had suffered a massive hack, losing data from 109 million customer accounts (nearly all of its cellular or landline customers) text and calls from six months in 2022.  (The FBI is investigating and at least on person has been arrested so far.)  After the close, Reuters reported that BHP and LUNMF are in talks about making a joint bid for copper miner FLMMF.  Then, on Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported that GOOGL is near to striking a deal to acquire cybersecurity firm Wiz for roughly $23 billion.  (If completed, it would be GOOGL’s largest acquisition ever.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, India’s antitrust regulator said AAPL exploited its position in the app market.  Later, Reuters reported that BG and GLNCY (Glencore)-backed Viterra have offered to sell off their assets in two EU countries in order to get European Commission approval of their $34 billion merger.  At the same time, a US District Court of Appeals rejected appeals made by DISH and an amateur astronomer group, upholding the lower-court decision in favor for FCC approval for SpaceX to deploy thousands (up to 7,500) of Starlink satellites.  Later, C asked a judge to dismiss a conservative racial discrimination lawsuit that alleged the bank violated civil rights law by waiving ATM fees for customers of minority-owned banks.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that federal prosecutors are investigating ABR over allegations (that were made by short sellers) of lending practices and financial disclosures.  Later, a US Appeals Court has temporarily put the FCC’s reinstatement of net neutrality rules on hold until August 5.  The court will consider appeals by the telco companies.  (The rule which was set to go back into effect July 22 requires internet service providers to treat all network traffic equally, rather than throttling some and charging higher rates for certain types of traffic.)  At the same time, a NY Federal Judge ruled AMZN must comply with an EEOC subpoena related to its investigation into allegations that company discriminated against pregnant workers.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed, but the biggest movers were to the red side.  Japan (-2.45%) and Hong Kong (-1.52%) led half of the region lower.  In Europe, the bourses are much more bearish with only four of 15 exchanges in the green at midday.  Russia (+1.39%) is a notable outlier.  The CAC (-.044%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (-0.23%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher.  The DIA implies a +0.56% open, the SPY is implying a +0.43% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.49% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.221% and Oil (WTI) is off slightly to $82.13 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to NY Empire State Mfg.  Index (8:30 a.m.).  However, Fed Chair Powell speaks at noon and Fed member Daly speaks at 4:35 p.m.  The major earnings reports before the open include BLK and GS.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get June Import Price Index, June Export Price Index, June Core Retail Sales, June Retail Sales, May Business Inventories, May Retail Inventories, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  On Wednesday, June Building Permits, June Housing Starts, June Industrial Production, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Beige Book are reported.  Fed Governor Waller also speaks.  Then Thursday, we get Weekly, Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, US Leading Economic Indicators Index, Fed’s Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Daly and Fed Governor Bowman.  Finally, on Friday, Fed members Williams and Bostic speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from BAC, SCHW, MS, PNC, PGR, STT, UNH, IBKR, JBHT, and OMC.  Then Wednesday, ALLY, ASML, CFG, ELV, FHN, JNJ, NTRS, PLD, SYF, USB, AA, CCI, DFS, EFX, KMI, LBRT, STLD, SNV, UAL, and WTFC report.  On Thursday, ABT, ALK, BX, CTAS, CHI, DPZ, HXL, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, NOK, NVS, SNA, TSM, TXT, AIR, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and SCHL report.  Finally, on Friday, AXP, ALV, CMA, EEFT, FITB, HAL, HBAN, RF, SDVKY, SLB, TRV, and WIT report.

So far this morning, GS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  BLK missed on revenue while beating handily on earnings.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported that rating agencies (MCO and Fitch) said Friday that office and other commercial real estate loan delinquencies ticked up in June.  The report said that overall commercial mortgage-backed loans delinquency rate rose to 2.45% (from 2.42% in May).  (This is the rate of loans with payments at least 30-days in arrears.)  Elsewhere, Israeli PM Netanyahu reversed (reneged) on a previous major point in ceasefire negotiations with Hamas.  Israel now says it demands to control the flow of Palestinians back to the North during any ceasefire versus a prior concession of “free Palestinian movement” during a ceasefire.  This essentially ended the talks for now as Netanyahu tries to shore up his extreme right-wing alliances.  On Sunday, CNP (the main electric provider in the Houston area) said half a million residences and businesses remain without power going into the new week.

In way too early earnings season news, Friday saw the early reporting big bank stocks punished, despite all of them reporting beats versus consensus estimate. For example, WFC closed down 6.02%, C down 1.81%, and JPM down 1.21%.  Some analysts attributed this to the constituent details of the reports.  (For instance, WFC reported less interest income than expected although it did beat over overall revenue estimates by $440 million.)  Other analysts said they believed it had to do with forward outlook such as JPM’s Jamie Dimon warning that inflation and interest rates may stay higher than the market expects and may hurt the overall economy.  However, still others said it was pure profit-taking.  Whatever the reason, it was worth noting that only Energy underperformed the Financial Services sector on Friday, despite reports that were good at first glance.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls want to run this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket and have printed white-body candles with no wicks since that start. DIA is testing Friday’s all-time high again in the early session. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, regardless of your timeframe, the market trend (short-term, mid-term, or longer-term) remains very bullish. In terms of extension, DIA is now the only one of the three major index ETFs stretched above its T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is in the top end of its overbought range. Therefore, the market may be in need of some rest or a pullback. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. TSLA (+4.07%) is the biggest mover and also leading the market in premarket volume. Only MSFT (-0.12%) and META (-0.21%) are below break-even among those market-moving stocks.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday was a profit-taking day in the markets.  After, good CPI data, SPY opened +0.02%, DIA opened +0.09%, and QQQ opened +0.06%.  However, at that point we saw divergence with the broader SPY and QQQ selling off briskly before bobbling near the lows to close out the say.  Meanwhile, DIA rallied and sold off and meandered sideways in positive territory the rest of the day.  This action gave us large, black-body Bearish Engulfing candles in the SPY and QQQ.  QQQ also crossed back below its T-line (8ema) for the first time in nine days.  (SPY did print another all-time high, but not all-time high close.)  At the same time, DIA printed a modest gap-up, large-legged Doji.  This happened on above-average volume in QQQ and DIA, as well as modestly below-average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+2.07%) out in front leading almost all of the rest of the sectors higher.  Meanwhile, Technology (-1.34%) was by far (by more than 1.80%) the weakest sector as we may have seen some rotation out of the big dog tech names that have led the market for a long, long time. At the same time, SPY lost 0.86%, DIA gained 0.09%, and QQQ lost 2.19%. VXX gained a little most than half a percent to close at a still extremely low at 10.34.  T2122 spiked for the second-straight day into extreme overbought territory at 97.97.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields were down again to 4.207% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.08% to close at $83.00 per barrel.  So, Thursday was a major profit-taking day or rotation on good CPI news.  (Perhaps traders think the CPI data foreshadows a rate cut and/or change in economic cycle position.)  Regardless of the cause, all 10 of the big dog names were down more than 1% for the day, led by TSLA (-8.44%), NVDA (-5.57%), and META (-4.11%).

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included June Core CPI (month-on-month), which fell and was below expectations at +0.1% (compared to a forecast and May reading of +0.2%).  On a Year-on-Year basis, June Core CPI was also down at +3.3% (versus a forecast and May value of +3.4%).  On the headline number, June CPI (month-on-month) actually fell and was below predictions at -0.1% (compared to a forecast of +0.1% and a May reading of 0.0%).  On the Year-on-Year basis, June CPI was also down and below what was anticipated at +3.0% (versus a +3.1% forecast and a May +3.3% number).  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were notably down at 222k (compared to a 236k forecast and a 239k previous week reading).  For the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, number was also down at 1,852k (versus a 1,860k forecast and the prior week’s 1,856k value).  Later, the June Federal Budget Balance was a bit better than expected at -$66.0 billion (compared to a forecast of -$71.2 billion and drastically down from May’s -$347.0 billion).  Then, after the close, the Weekly Fed Balance Sheet showed a modest increase of $2 billion at $7.224 trillion (versus the prior week $7.222 trillion).

In economic speak news, on Thursday, San Francisco Fed President said that the recent better inflation data area relief.  She said, “With the information we have received today, which includes data on employment, inflation, GDP growth, and the outlook for the economy, I see it as likely that policy adjustments, some policy adjustments, will be warranted.”  At the same time, St. Louis Fed President Musalem indicated that Thursday/s CPI data was encouraging.  He said, “The June Consumer Price Index points to encouraging further progress toward lower inflation.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told a group interview, “My view is, this is what the path to 2% looks like.”  He also indicated yesterday’s report was “excellent news” that indicate the stronger than expected May CPI data was just “a bump in the road.”  He went on to say, “The reason to be as restrictive as that and the reason to tighten in real terms would be if you thought the economy was overheating. This is not in my view what an overheating economy looks like.”

In stock news, on Thursday, MSTR announced it will undergo a 10-for-1 split for the holders of record on August 1.  Later, PFE announced it will move ahead with a pill form of its GLP-1 weight loss drug.  This comes after a 20-person study showed concerns over side effects from the pills.  At the same time, RTX was awarded a $1.2 billion contract to provide additional Patriot missile systems to Germany.  Later, QS said it has signed a strategic partnership with VLKAF (Volkswagen) to develop new battery technologies.  (QS closed up 30.50% on the day on this news.)  At the same time, BCSF announced it will buy ENV for $4.5 billion.  Later, IBATF announced it has become the first company to commercialize a lithium extraction technology, selling a license to its filtration technology to private miner US Magnesium.  (Beating RIO and SLI to this milestone.)   At the same time, GM announced plants to invest $900 million to retool an MI plant to build electric vehicles.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that TSLA will delay the launch of its robotaxis until October.  (This was yet another delay from the previously announced August 8 unveiling.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the EU antitrust regulator said AAPL has agreed to open its “tap-and-go” payments system to rivals in order to avoid sanctions under one of three ongoing EU antitrust investigations of the company.  This came even as the head of the agency said “so far is that we have not seen a change in behavior on Apple’s side when it comes to our preliminary findings.”  Later, the Dept. of Energy awarded GM and STLA nearly $1.1 billion in grants to build electric vehicles and components.  Meanwhile, CVX and HES announced they expect the FTC to review their proposed merger in Q3.  (This announcement came after Bloomberg reported the FTC would delay its decision on the merger until Q4.)  At the same time, the EPA and Dept. of Justice announced MRO had agreed to a $241 million settlement (including a $64 million fine) for violations of the Clean Air Act.  Later, DG agreed to pay a $12 million penalty to the Dept. of Labor for alleged safety violations.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Hong Kong (+2.59%) was by far the biggest gainer.  Meanwhile, Japan (-2.45%) and Taiwan (-1.94%) were by far the biggest losers, following Thursday’s US Tech selloff.  In Europe, we see mostly green at midday.  The CAC (+0.69%), DAX (+0.41%), and FTSE (+0.31%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back up a bit to 4.217% and Oil (WTI) is up almost another percent to $83.37 per barrel on hopes for economic stimulus from the Fed.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include June Core PPI and June PPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), and the WASDE Ag report (noon).  The major earnings reports before the open include BK, C, ERIC, FAST, JPM, and WFC. However, there are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

In miscellaneous news, following Thursday’s CPI data, the CME Fedwatch tool shows that 8.8% of fed fund futures trades expect a rate cut at the July 31 meeting, but 91.2% expect no cut.  However, for the September 18 meeting, Fed Fund futures indicate a 92.7% probability of a rate cut.  Elsewhere, more than 1.2 million residences and businesses remain without power in South TX following hurricane Beryl and officials said 500k will remain without power into next week.  Finally, the EU said early Friday that Elon Musk’s former Twitter deceives users and breaches EU online content rules.  If confirmed, X (Twitter) could face a fine up to 6% of global annual turnover.

So far this morning, BK, JPM, and WFC all reported beats (easily) on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, FAST missed slightly on revenue while coming in in-line of earnings.  On the other side, ERIC beat easily on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  (C reports at 8 a.m.)

With that background, it looks as if markets have all moved modestly, but indecisively bullish in the premarket. SPY and DIA are printing Doji in the early session while QQQ has put in a white-body candle that recovered from a premarket opening gap lower. The SPY and DIA remain above their T-line (8ema) while QQQ seems just about ready to retest its own T-line from below this morning. So, regardless of your timeframe, the market trend (short-term, mid-term, or longer-term) remains very bullish despite yesterday’s big black candle. In terms of extension, DIA is now the only one of the three major index ETFs stretched above its T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is in the top end of its overbought range. Therefore, oddly after yesterday’s candle, the market may be in need of more rest or a pullback. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are split 50-50 this morning with 5 in the green and 5 in the red. META (-1.76%) is the biggest mover while TSLA (-0.91%) has traded the most dollar volume in the early session. NVDA (+0.49%) is just behind TSLA in dollar-volume this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday was a bullish freight train and the Bears were tied to the track.  The SPY gapped up 0.23%, DIA opened flat, and QQQ gapped up 0.42%.  From there, all three major index ETFs ground sideways in a very tight range for 90 minutes.  However, then the fuse was lit and all three rallied steadily for the rest of the day.  They all went parabolic the last half hour with only five minutes of profit taking at the end keeping all three from ending on their highs.  This action gave us large white-bodied candles with smaller wicks on both ends across the board.  SPY and QQQ once again printed new all-time highs and gave us new all-time high closes (the 37^th of the year).  Meanwhile, after a successful retest of its T-line (8ema) the DIA rallied to break out of its trading range dating back to May and closed less than a percent from its own all-time high.  This happened on below average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as above-average volume in DIA.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+1.51%) way out front leading the rest of the market higher.  Even the laggards, Consumer Cyclicals (+0.61%), Energy (+0.62%), and Consumer Defensive (+0.64%) were up significantly.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.99%, DIA gained 1.08%, and QQQ gained 1.04%.  VXX fell just a tad and remains extremely low at 10.27.  Meanwhile, T2122 spiked up to the top half of its mid-range at 69.68.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields were down a bit to 4.281% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.24% to close at $82.42 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a bullish day in a strong bullish trend.  SPY and QQQ have closed at a new all-time high close each of the last five sessions, led by the Tech Big Dogs like NVDA (+2.70%), AMD (+3.87%), and AAPL (+1.88%).  In fact, the only one of the 10 Tech Big Dogs that was down was NFLX (-1.18%) and it only traded $1.8 billion in stock on the day.  So, if traders were waiting on CPI data…they have a funny way of showing it.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday were limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, which showed a much larger drawdown than expected at -3.443 million barrels (compared to a forecasted build of 0.700-million-barrels but far less than the prior week’s -12.157 million barrels).

In economic speak news, on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell testified again, this time in front of the House.  Powell said the Fed does not need to reach the 2% target figure prior to cutting rates. In addition, he said the Fed will cut rates “when and as needed,” regardless of the election.  Powell said, “Our undertaking is to make decisions when and as they need to be made, based on the data, the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks, and not in consideration of other factors, and that would include political factors.”  (For the second day in a row, GOP lawmakers pressed (begged?) Powell not to announce any rate cuts until after the November 5 election.)  When asked about the path of inflation, Powell indicated he did have some confidence that inflation is headed back below 2%.  However, when asked if the bar for a rate cut had been cleared, Powell said “”I am not ready to say that yet.”  He continued, “There is a path to getting back to full price stability while keeping the unemployment rate low, … We’re on it. We’re very focused on staying on that path.”

After the close, PSMT and WDFC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. 

In stock news, on Wednesday, WBD announced its CNN unit will cut 100 jobs (2.8% of its workforce) and also launch a new CNN.com subscription service later this year.  At the same time, INTU announced plans to layoff 1,800 employees (10% of workforce) in cost-cutting moves, citing that AI is transforming the company.  Later, HON announced they have signed a deal to buy APD’s LNG pretreatment unit for $1.81 billion.  At the same time, AMD announced they have agreed to buy Silo AI (private) for $665 million.  Later, TLSA raised the prices of its Model 3 in Europe by about $1.622 after the EU imposed tariffs on EVs made in China.  (The Model 3 is made in China.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that GOOGL has walked away from its pursuit of purchasing HUBS.  Later, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is expecting 10% growth in iPhone sales compared to 2023 according to internal sources it cited.  (However, 2023 was a down year for iPhone shipments.)   At the same time, the Athletic reported that AMZN. CMCSA, and DIS have finalized a $76 billion deal to broadcast NBA basketball games for 11 seasons.  (However, the report said current NBA partner WBD still has the option to match the deal.)  After the close, COST announced it will hike membership fees starting in the fall.  Elsewhere, MSFT announced it will drop its “observer seat” on the OpenAI board to head off antitrust inquiries in the US and UK. AAPL followed MSFT’s lead giving up its own newly-acquired “board observer” seat.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday the NHTSA announced that STLA is recalling 332k 2017-2025 Alfa Romeo, Jeep, and Fiat vehicles in the US over faulty seatbelt sensors. At the same time, the same agency announced BMWYY was recalling 394k vehicles in the US due to faulty airbag inflators.  Later, HE stock spiked on a report saying that a “massive settlement” related to the Maui wildfires could be unveiled as soon as next week.  No other details were released, but 451 lawsuits (covering 1,800 individual plaintiffs as well as 425 business entity plaintiffs) related to those wildfires are in the courts now.  At the same time, MSFT completed a $21.7 million deal to settle cloud licensing practices to avoid EU antitrust action.  (The deal was with the main complainant to the EU about those practices.)  GOOGL announced it will explore other options to fight MSFT cloud licensing practices after the settlement.  Later, JBLU asked the Dept. of Transportation to disqualify the UAL proposal from winning one of the five new round-trip flight slots up for bid from Washington Reagan airport. 

Elsewhere, a federal judge in CA dismissed most of the FCBN $1 billion lawsuit against HSBC for “poaching” 40 employees after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March of 2023.  Later, the CEO of BA was hauled before the NTSB and forced to apologize for violating its NTSB rules.  After the apology, the BA CEO refused other comment.  At the same time, NSC agreed to implement the series of safety recommendations made by the NTSB following the February 2023 train derailment in East Palestine OH.  Later, the FTC announced plans to sue UNH, ESRX, and CVS over their negotiating practices (collusion) on drugs including insulin following a two-year investigation.  After the close, the former CEO of WORX was convicted of securities fraud related to statements about the company becoming the major supplier of rapid COVID-19 tests, despite knowing the claims were untrue.  At the same time, the Fed and Office of the Comptroller fined C $136 million after the bank was found to have made insufficient progress addressing data management issues.  (The bank was fined $400 million in 2020 for the same deficiencies.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only India (-0.03%) was below break-even.  Meanwhile Hong Kong (+2.06%), Shenzhen (+1.99%), and Taiwan (+1.60%) led broad and strong gains in the region.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape at midday with only Denmark (-0.03%) on the red side of flat.  However, the CAC (+0.32%), DAX (+0.19%), and FTSE (+0.22%) lead modest gains ahead of US data.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just below Wednesday’s close.  The DIA implies a -0.17% open, SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and QQQ implies a -0.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up slightly to 4.281% and Oil (WTI) is up three-tenths of a percent to $82.35 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include June Core CPI, June CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 a.m.), June Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.) and Weekly Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  Fed member Bostic also speaks at 11:30 a.m. Earnings season begins again Thursday as Thursday, CAG, DAL, and PEP report before the open.  However, there are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, June Core PPI, June PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Friday, BK, C, ERIC, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, DAL beat on revenue while missing on earnings by a penny.  On the other side, PEP missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

With that background, it looks as if markets are slightly, but undecidedly bearish in the premarket. All three major index ETFs started the early session flat, but have put in small, black-bodied candles since then. Still, regardless of your timeframe, the market trend (short-term, mid-term, or longer-term) remains very bullish. In terms of extension, QQQ is stretched above its T-line and SPY is also pushing its extension. The T2122 indicator is back up above the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction, but the Bears still have more slack to work with today. (We are in need of rest or pullback in the QQQ and SPY.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red early this morning on modest moves. However, the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.36%) is also the best performer of that group on price move and volume.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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