Stocks Face Second Gap Down But Now Oversold

Stocks gapped down over a percent on Wednesday as fear of Fed hawkishness and inconclusive news from major retailers on consumer spending led to uncertainty.  The bad news for any bulls was that this led into a strong selloff that lasted the entire rest of the day in all 3 major indices.  Only a bounce the last 5 minutes of the day prevented us from going out on the lows.  This left us with big, ugly black gap-down candles in all 3 major indices and nearing the breakout of a Dreaded-h pattern in all 3.  On the day, SPY lost 4.03% (worst day since June 2020), DIA lost 3.53%, and QQQ lost a whopping 4.91%.  The VXX rose 5.24% to 26.09 and T2122 dropped back deep into the oversold territory at 5.08.  10-year bond yields dropped back to 2.884% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.8% to $109.25/barrel.

During the day, April Building Permits and Housing starts both came in below forecast.  This falls in line with spiking mortgage rates that have seen declines in mortgage applications in recent weeks and may be a sign of the housing market bidding wars slowing.  However, the big miss of the day was current crude oil inventories, which came in 4.7 million barrels lower than expected (-3.394 mil actual vs +1.383 mil est.).  After hours, the CEO of UAA announced he will be stepping down as of June 1. 

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On the Russian invasion story, China is now in talks with Russia to buy a huge amount of Russian oil to fill their strategic oil reserves.  Even at a steep discount to market price, this would be a huge financial boost to Russian coffers.  However, Russian GDP growth missed expectations during Q1. Russian GDP came in at +3.5% (versus +3.7% that was forecast), down from the +4% during Q4.  Since almost all of this drop-off came during the last month of the quarter, we can see the impacts of sanctions…even with soaring energy prices to boost numbers.

In addition to reporting earnings this morning, KSS also slashed forward guidance on both sales and profits. This came as the company said it expects to have received the last of the expected buyout offers in the next few weeks. There are known bids from FRG, another from SPG (who wants to combine KSS with former JCPenney), as well as a separate private equity group. It is unknown who the additional bidder(s) may be that the company is waiting for in the next few weeks.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Only Shenzhen (+0.38%) and Shanghai (+0.36%) managed gains while India (-2.65%), Hong Kong (-2.54%), and Japan (-1.89%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see red across the board at mid-day.  The FTSE (-2.36%), DAX (-2.10%), and CAC (-1.75%) lead the way and are typical of the region in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a second straight significant gap lower.  The DIA implies a -1.12% open, the SPY is implying a -1.15% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.23% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down strongly to 2.839% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.77% to $107.65/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Thursday includes Weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), and April Existing Home Sales (10 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include WMS, BJ, KSS, and VIPS before the open.  Then, after the close, AMAT, DECK, FLO, PANW, ROST, and VFC report.

So far this morning SQM, BJ, EXP, and MBT have reported beats on both lines.  At the same time, KSS and WMS both reported beating the estimates on revenue but missing on the bottom line.  On the other side, VIPS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Finally, PLCE missed on both revenue and earnings.

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After Wednesday’s rout in the market, fear has spread. The signal of this is bond yields dropping as investors stash money n bonds, bidding up their price (and thus push down yields). The bond market has also seen much more volatility in the last few days as skittishness has now infected bond markets as well. The proximate cause most talking heads point to is concern over economic slowdown (not inflation). Whether those analysts are right or not, when you add geopolitical risk to the mix, markets are just plain uncertain and nervous. So, continue to be very careful. The short and mid-term trends are bearish, the mid-term move is getting a bit long in the tooth. Plus in the short-term (as shown by T2122), we are oversold and have the potential support of a “bear market level” (down 20% from highs) in the area. So, remain nimble and hedged. Above all, don’t give in to FOMO and feel the need to chase a move or predict a reversal either way.

Trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. So, work the process. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Also, remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MO, ADM, MOS, SLB, NTR, RBLX, BTI, AMD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bears Look to Gap Lower on Inflation Fears

Markets gapped strongly higher at the open Tuesday on good sales numbers from WMT and HD.  However, they immediately began fading the gap in all 3 major indices.  The lows were reached just before 11 am only to see a long, slow rally take over. Price had climbed back to the open level about 1 pm only to print another whipsaw between 2 pm and 3 pm before running up to new highs late.  This has left us with indecisive, gap-up, Spinning Top or even Hangman candles in all 3 of those averages.  The good news for bulls is that those 3 were able to pass a retest of their T-lines (8ema).  The bad news is that the downtrend line has not yet been reached and there is still a lot of resistance above.  On the day, SPY gained 2.04%, DIA gained 1.30%, and QQQ gained 2.59%.  The VXX rose slightly to 24.79 and T2122 climbed up above the mid-point to 67.14.  10-year bond yields rose sharply to 2.984% and Oil (WTI) fell 2% to $111.86/barrel.

During the day, April Retail sales came in as expected (+0.9%) but the Core Retail Sales beat expectations (+0.6% vs +0.4% est.).  This was offset by larger than expected builds in March Retail Inventories.  However, April Industrial Production also came in above expectations at +6.4%.  Then in a Wall Street Journal interview, Fed Chair Powell said he’ll continue to back rate increases until “we see inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way,” even if that meant moving past levels broadly seen as “neutral.”  He said that this policy might come at the expense of increasing the unemployment rate past the current 3.6%.  This is the most hawkish Powell we’ve ever heard. However, overall he said he sees the most likely paths to lead to a “softish landing” for the economy.

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In stock news Tuesday, C jumped 7.59% on news of Warren Buffett taking a $3 billion position in the stock. All the semiconductor stocks climbed with AMD spiking 8.73% after catching an upgrade from Piper Sandler.  Meanwhile, MU surged 5.69% and NVDA surged 5.29%, as QCOM ran up 4.31%, and INTC climbed 3.06%.  However, despite the strong Tech gains, the top-performing sectors were Basic Materials and Consumer Cyclicals (both up 3.14% as sectors).  After the close, KEYS reported a beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Also, for the second day in a row, a major corporation faced shareholder rejection of its executive compensation plan.  This time, after-hours it was announced that JPM shareholders rejected CEO Jamie Dimon’s bonus ($52.6 million in stock options) by more than a 2-to-1 margin.

On the Russian invasion story, the leaders of Finland and Sweden are submitting their country’s NATO membership applications today in a meeting with NATO Sec. Gen. Stoltenberg.  The leaders of both nations with then visit the White House to meet President Biden on Thursday.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported last night that the US State Dept. would not extend the sanctions carve-out that allowed Russia to pay bond debt in dollars when it expires on May 25th.  This greatly raises the chance of Russian default when the next payments are due May 27th. Finally, President Biden is preparing a $500 million military aid package (money they can spend on US-made arms) for India.  This is intended to start weaning India off of buying arms from Russia.

Weekly mortgage demand for new home purchases fell 12% week-on-week and was down 15% from one year ago.  Refinancing applications also continue to nose dive, falling another 10% week-on-week.  This came as 30-year, fixed-rate interest levels fell slightly from 5.53% to 5.49%.  Clearly, people still remember the 3% rate from the start of the year and have a hard time swallowing 5.49%.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed but leaned heavily to the green side.  Taiwan (+1.50%), New Zealand (+1.08%), and Australia (+0.99%) led the gains, but increases were widespread.  Only Shanghai (-0.25%), and Shenzhen (-0.20%) had appreciable losses.  In Europe, markets are more evenly mixed at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.11%), DAX (+0.02%), and CAC (-0.18%) lead the region as always with Russia (+2.03%) as an outlier.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.44% open, the SPY is implying a -0.60% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.83% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 3.001% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.1% to $113.64/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday are limited to April Building Permits and April Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ADI, ARCO, LOW, TGT, TJX, and ZIM before the open.  Then, after the close, BBWI, SQM, CSCO, CPRT, and SNPS report.

So far this morning ADI and ZIM have reported beats on both lines.  At the same time, TGT reported beating the estimates on revenue but missing on the bottom line.  On the other side, LOW missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  TGT shares were down 23% in premarket trading on the earnings miss, punished the same as WMT (which lost 11.38% Tuesday) for higher-than-expected costs.  LOW was down 3% in premarket on a revenue miss that the company blamed on cooler weather (despite rival HD beating sales estimate just yesterday).

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Inflation, how it will be fought, and how that will impact markets is the main topic on trader’s minds today. As Fed Chair sounded quite hawkish Tuesday and the UK printed 9% April inflation overnight, Mr. Market is scared. It could also be traders thinking it’s time to take profits on this relief rally after gaining 4% in the SPY over the last 4 days. Add geopolitical risk to the mix and there is uncertainty in the air. Either way, we need to remember the trend is still bearish and there is a lot of resistance above. We have not made a low, high, higher-low, and higher-high yet. So be very careful chasing long positions. That said, the bearish move is long in the tooth as well and near the potential support of a 20% fall to bear levels. So, remain nimble and hedged. Above all, don’t give in to FOMO -OR- feel the need to predict a reversal either way.

Trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. So, work the process. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Also, remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SLB, MOS, LLY, KO, PSA, GILD, ZC, JPM, IVR, LYFT DAL, AXP, ABNB, SHOP, MSTR, BBBY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bulls To Gap Higher With April Data Ahead

Monday started with a small gap lower as we got bad Chinese economic data and the NY Empire State Mfg. Index missed estimates.  After that, we saw a roller-coaster ride with a slightly bullish trend until 3 pm.  From that point, stocks slid the rest of the day.  This action allowed all 3 major indices to retest their T-Line and fail again.  However, DIA held out to barely print a second straight green day as markets fight with their downtrends.  This left us with indecisive, Doji or Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.37%, DIA gained 0.18%, and QQQ lost 1.16%.  The VXX fell almost 5% to 24.69 and T2122 climbed again, but remains below the mid-point at 35.11.  10-year bond yields fell on the day to 2.886% and Oil (WTI) rose 3.3% to $114.16/barrel.

Monday, Bloomberg reported Elon Musk has floated the idea of buying TWTR at a lower price than approved by the board.  This came the same day that he and TWTR CEO Agrawal went back and forth on whether or not there are many fake accounts on the platform.  The stock took an 8.18% loss on the day and in the process gave back more than all the gains made since Musk’s position purchase was made public.  Then early this morning Musk said that TWTR must prove its claims of 5% or fewer “bot accounts” for the purchase to proceed at all. TWTR was down as much as another 4% in after-hours trading.

Cryptocurrencies continue to have massive issues as another “stablecoin” (DEI) lost its peg to the US Dollar, falling below 70 cents.  The algorithm selling Bitcoin and NFTs in an attempt to maintain the peg simply could not keep up.  As with Luna (which is now of no value), this puts pressure on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general on a reputation basis as well as direct selling to maintain the peg.  However, Bitcoin, rallied late in the day to regain the $30,000 level after falling to $29,000 during the day.  In related news, COIN reported that people holding their crypto wallets at COIN are to be treated as “unsecured creditors” in the event of bankruptcy.  This means if the COIN exchange files for bankruptcy, people holding accounts will be paid last in the disbursement of assets.  COIN plummeted another 9% on the day and is down 53% since May 4th.

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After the close, TME missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, TTWO and AE both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  In other stock news, after-hours, INTC announced that shareholders have rejected the company’s top executive pay packages by almost a two-to-one margin.  The vote is not binding on the board, but is a clear sign that shareholders are watching company performance.  In other compensation news, MSFT announced it will nearly double its employee compensation budget as well as increase the stock options given to some classes of employees by 25%.  This was all a major effort to retain staff in a very competitive job market.

On the baby formula story, ABT reached a deal with the FDA to restart their Sturgis MI plant (which the FDA shut down in February).  This increases the largest baby formula maker’s capacity by at least one-third.  Elsewhere, Nestle (a global baby formula maker with smaller US presence) is flying large supplies of formula to the US today while Reckitt Benckiser (UK formula maker) is also boosting production by 30% and shipping more to the US in order to capture market share and alleviate the US shortage.

Economic news later this week includes April Building Permits, April Housing Starts, and Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday.  Then Thursday we see Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and April Existing Home Sales.  There is no major news scheduled for Friday.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side on encouraging Covid news out of China.  Hong Kong (+3.27%) and India (+2.63%) were outliers, but Shenzhen (+1.23%), Taiwan (+0.98%), and South Korea (+0.92%) led the way higher.  In Europe, we see green across the board at mid-day with Tech stocks leading the way.  The FTSE (+0.96%), DAX (+1.53%), and CAC (+1.38%) lead the way as usual in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a large gap higher at the start of the day.  The DIA implies a +1.43% open, the SPY is implying a +1.67% open, and the QQQ implies a +2.01% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 2.919% and Oil (WTI) is up another 0.67% to $114.95/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday includes April Retail Sales (8:30 am), April Industrial Production (9:15 am), Mar. Business Inventories and Mar. Retail Inventories (both at 10 am), and a few Fed speakers (Bullard at 8 am, Harker at 9:15 am, Chair Powell at 2 pm, and Mester at 2:30 pm).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AER, HD, JD, SE, and WMT before the open.  Then, after the close, KEYS reports.

So far this morning HD, JD, SE, AER, HUYA, and IMBBY all reported beats on both lines.  At the same time, WMT and VOD reported beating the estimates on revenue but missing on the bottom line.  Finally, MARUY has reported misses on both lines.  It is worth noting that HD raised guidance for the rest of the year after record Q1 sales.  HD was up 3% in premarket trading. The WMT miss was unusual and attributed higher costs which included “overstaffing,” which raises the fear of layoffs in a job market where just yesterday the company announced a new incentive program to increase hiring among college graduates. WMT is down 5% in premarket trading.

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Coming off weeks of losses, the bulls seem to be latching on to good Covid news from China (implying some improvement of supply chain issues and increasing Chinese demand) as well as the strong HD earnings and forecast. The fact that WMT also beat on revenue (despite a bad earnings miss) may also give hope that the consumer is not tapped out yet. However, inflation, geopolitical risk, and the cryptocurrency meltdown still also weigh on Mr. Market’s mind. So, be damn careful about chasing into the gap higher. Caution remains the smart play. Remember the trend is still to the downside, despite the last couple of candles. Also bear in mind that those bullish candles failed a test of the T-line twice now. This does not mean they will always fail, it just suggests there remains a lot of resistance overhead. Remain nimble and hedged. Above all, don’t give in to FOMO -OR- feel the need to predict a reversal.

Trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. So, work the process. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Also, remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MMAT, EPAM, WDC, GILD, IBM, MMM, HAL, XLE, DOW. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

NY Mfg. This AM, Retailers Report In Days

On Friday, stocks gapped up 1% – 1.5% in the major indices and then followed through to the highs of the day just after noon.  Then the afternoon saw a roller-coaster ride that ended on an upswing, but not at the highs.  This left us with gap-up, white candles that failed a test of the down-trending T-line (8ema) in all three major indices and the small-cap IWM.  On the day, SPY gained 2.34%, DIA gained 1.45%, and QQQ gained 3.71%.  The VXX fell more than 3.5% to 25.97 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold territory to 25.97.  10-year bond yields closed up to 2.937% and Oil jumped 4% to $110.38/barrel.  On the week, all the major indices printed gap-down, indecisive, long-legged Spinning Top candles.

Part of the reason for Friday’s rally was the Fed removing some uncertainty from the market.  FOMC Chair Powell said on Thursday that larger rate hikes are off the table for now, but the Fed will be hiking rates half of a percent at each of the next two Fed meetings (June 15 and July 27).  Elsewhere, it was revealed that top tax officials from the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands met in London Friday to discuss 50 potential crypto-based tax crimes.  These crimes include a $1 billion Ponzi scheme carried out cross-border using an unspecified cryptocurrency as well as NFTs.

Meme stock trading came back into vogue last week.  Some examples include GMA closing up almost 10% on a 10% gap up Monday and trading in a 12.5% range over the week.  AMC closed down 14.17% while trading in a 45% range during the week.  BBBY closed down more than 20% and traded in a 35% range during the week.  BB closed up about 4% after trading in a 25% range during the week.  Finally, HOOD closed up 5.63% after trading in a 41% range over the week.

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On the Russian invasion story, Russia took action against Finland, stopping the supply of electricity (20% of the country’s power supply) and also stopping the flow of natural gas (used to generate another 6% of the country’s power) after the Finn government announced it will ask parliament to approve an application for NATO membership.  On Sunday, Sweden followed suit, with PM Andersson saying the country will now work toward NATO membership.  (This raises the question of how Russia will react. Will they cut off gas flows to Europe as they did to Finland?) Early Monday, MCD said it will sell its closed Russian stores rather than ever try to reopen.  From Russia’s standpoint, this raises the specter of whether the 1,000 companies which closed operations in its country will ever reopen. Elsewhere, India has banned wheat exports in anticipation of a global shortage due to Ukraine being unable to ship grain and droughts worldwide.  This is not a huge fear for the US (other than price hikes being ensured). However, Asia, Africa, and to a lesser extent parts of Europe need to worry about food shortages coming.

Energy markets and stocks/ETFs may face more turmoil this week.  In Europe, nat. gas prices were up 10% last week after the shutdown of one-third of the Russian Natural gas flow.  This week the EU is expected to unveil its $195 billion Euro plan to completely stop importing Russian oil and gas by 2027.  The plan is expected to include deals with Egypt, Israel, and Nigeria for natural gas to replace the current Russian supply as a stop-gap.  Elsewhere this week, many of the major US retailers will be reporting this week.  So, there may be guidance or at least a read-through on the outlook for consumers as markets gauge a potential economic slowdown.

Economic news later this week includes April Retail Sales, April Industrial Production, Mar. Business Inventories, Mar. Retail Inventories, and a couple Fed speakers on Tuesday.  On Wednesday we get April Building Permits, April Housing Starts, and Crude Oil Inventories.  Then Thursday we see Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and April Existing Home Sales.  There is no major news scheduled for Friday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed in very modes moves (by recent standards).  Singapore (+0.82%), Japan (+0.45%), and Taiwan (+0.43%) led the gains.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.59%), Shanghai (-0.34%), and South Korea (-0.29%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar story taking shape at mid-day.  Notable exceptions are Russia (+2.25%) and Denmark (+1.65%).  However, the FTSE (+0.05%), DAX (-0.53%), and CAC (-0.29%) lead the way as usual.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a slightly negative start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.14% open, the SPY is implying a -0.34% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.48% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down a bit to 2.913% and Oil (WTI) is also down almost 1% to $109.42/barrel.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to NY Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Williams at 8:55 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to TSEM and WEBR before the open.  Then, after the close, TTWO and TME report.

So far this morning TSEM reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, WIX has reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, MARUY has reported misses on both lines.

Notable earnings reports later in the week include WMT, HD, SE, AER, and KEYS on Tuesday.  Then on Wednesday, we get reports from LOW, TGT, CL, ADI, ARCO, CSCO, SNPS, CPRT, BBWI, and SQM.  On Thursday we hear from VIPS, KSS, BJ, CAE, WMS, AMAT, ROST, VFC, FLO, PANW, and DECK.  Finally, on Friday we see numbers from DE, FL, and BAH.

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Coming off a very volatile week and working on 7 straight weeks of losses in the DIA (6 straight in both the SPY and QQQ), markets sit at the edge of bear market territory. Premarkets seem to suggest a wait-and-see feeling this morning, perhaps waiting on the retailer reports coming this week to give a read-through to whether the consumer is tapped out or not. Inflation, geopolitical risk, and cryptocurrency meltdowns also weigh on Mr. Market’s mind. So, caution remains the smart play. Remember the trend is still to the downside, despite Friday’s nice candles. Also bear in mind that those bullish candles failed a test of the T-line. This does not mean they will always fail, it just suggests there remains a lot of resistance overhead. Remain nimble and hedged. Above all, don’t give in to FOMO -OR- feel the need to predict a reversal.

Trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. So, work the process. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Also, remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: EPAM, KO, CVX, GILD, CLX, WDC, OXY, VTRS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Gap Up Open With TWTR and Crypto Chaos

Markets gapped down Thursday as PPI came in as expected, +0.5%, which was way down from last month’s +1.6%.  The Core PPI (stripping out volatile food and energy) came in lower than expected (+0.4% vs +0.6% forecast).  After the gap down, stocks rallied to the highs of the day at 11am when a reversal and strong, sustained selloff took markets to the lows at 3pm.  However, the day ended on strong rally off the lows to end the day basically flat.  This left us with indecisive, long-legged Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices.  On the Day, SPY lost 0.09%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost 0.21%.  The VXX fell to 26.93 and T2122 climbed a bit, but stayed deeply in the oversold territory to 1.60.  10-year bond yields fell to 2.873% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.13% to $106.90/barrel.  Consumer Cyclicals (+1.63%) and Healthcare (+1.50%) led on the day with Utilities (-0.79%) and Basic Materials (-0.60%) pacing the losses.

During the day Fed Chair Powell was reconfirmed for a second term.  In other market-related news, the cryptocurrency story refused to go away today with the supposedly-stablecoin LUNA losing 97.48% of its value (dropping to $0.03 in value). Ethereum also lost 8.7% and Bitcoin remained relatively stable, down 2%, but hitting $26,000 before closing at $29,400 (down from $41,500 less than a month ago).  Treasury Sec. Yellen told reporters the recent volatility and decoupling of so-called pegged stablecoins is a clear example of why the government should be regulating that market.

Meme stock mania made a comeback Thursday with AMC trading in a 29% range to close up 8% on the day.  In addition, GME traded in a 30% range, was halted multiple times for excess volatility, and closed up 10.13%.  TLRY also 9.36% on a relatively stable 14% range while BBBY traded in a 17% range to close up only 1.95%.  HOOD also spiked 5% on the day, but this might also have been on leaks related to the after-hours story that a cryptocurrency exchange CEO is buying a 7.6% stake in HOOD.  This caused the stock to spike +41% in after-hours trading.

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After the close, MSI, EDR, and PAM all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, HLI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, TOST, COMP, and VZIO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  US Senator Paul has killed the effort to fast-track the aid package to Ukraine.  He is demanding a special Inspector General to oversea all spending from the package.  He refused to allow it to be voted on as an amendment, instead insisting it must be part of the main bill.  This will delay passage by several days despite strong bipartisan support.

This morning, Elon Musk says his purchase of TWTR is “temporarily on hold.”   The reason for this pause is an audit to verify that less than 5% of TWTR accounts are not real people but actually fake/bot users.  TWTR has also frozen hiring and has rescinded job offers previously made until the deal closes.  TWTR stock is plummeting in premarket trading, down 14% at time of this writing.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the FOMC will hike rates by half a percent at each of its next two meetings.  He also said that whether or not the economy goes into recession is outside of the Fed’s control.  Finally, the Terra project has stopped processing block chain transaction for the second time in less than a day.  This came as the company scrambled to find a way to reconstitute their network in the face of Luna having dropped to practically zero.  Binance has already suspended trading of that crypto.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Japan (+2.64%), Hong Kong (+2.68%), and South Korea (+2.12%) led the gainers with only 3 exchanges just barely in the red.  In Europe, stocks are following Asia with all but 2 exchanges well into the green at mid-day.  The FTSE (+1.56%), DAX (+1.35%), and CAC (+1.53%) lead the way with only Belgium and Denmark slightly in the red in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a strong gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.75% open, he SPY implies a +1.09% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.66% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 2.904% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.7% to $107.96/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to Apr. Imports/Exports (8:30 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and a couple of Fed speakers (Kashkari at 11 am an Mester at noon).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to HMC before the open.  There are no major earnings reports after the close.

So far this morning HMC reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, DWAHY, ISUZY, and TRYIY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, KDDIY, GASNY, OJIPY, BPIRY, and AACAY have reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, SMFG, MARUY, RKUNY, ATASY, PBSFY, and AHKSY have reported misses on both lines.

LTA Scanning Software

Premarkets seem to be gapping strongly in favor of the bulls this morning as markets try to prevent the SPY from slipping into a bear market (down 20% from its recent high). However, remember that the last two gaps higher were “bull traps” that were met with strong selloffs. So, don’t go chasing gaps, especially gaps against the trend. Regardless of the action today, it seems very unlikely that any of the major indices can avoid yet another down week. Inflation, geopolitical risk, and cryptocurrency meltdowns are also on Mr. Market’s mind. So, caution remains the smart play. Remain nimble, hedged, and small (if not flat) as we head into the weekend. There is certainly no need to panic or experience FOMO. If you want to trade this market, unless you are a daytrader, the smart move is to stick with the downtrend. The bears still have all the momentum.

Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. You also don’t need to be in the market all the time. If this isn’t a market condition you thrive in, then get out of the way. It will settle out at some point and it’s far better to wait and have money for the right market condition than to force trades now and be busted when things do turn. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. If you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Focus on your process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas Today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Jobless and PPI Numbers Before Open

On Wednesday CPI came in hotter than expected (but still better than last month) and as a result premarkets pulled back, giving us a small gap down at the open.  From there, the QQQ led the other indices into an all-day selloff that closed near the lows in all 3 major indices.  This gave us big, ugly black candles and new 52-week lows in all three.  On the day, SPY lost 1.61%, DIA lost 1.02%, and QQQ lost 2.99%.  The VXX diverged from expectations by only rising a fraction to 27.28 and T2122 fell even more deeply into the oversold territory at 0.81.  10-year bond yields fell to 2.93% and Oil (WTI) spiked 5.4% to $105.18/barrel after having lost 10% in the prior couple of sessions.

As mentioned, the April Consumer Price Index showed an 8.3% increase (year on year), which was higher than the 8.1% expected, but still less than March’s 8.5%.  Analysts say this indicates we are at peak inflation and could see it slacking off later this year.  However, the Core CPI number (which strips out volatile food and energy impacts) was up 0.6% in April which was much higher than the 0.4% expected. While markets are still pricing in “just” a half-percent hike in June, the potential for a three-quarter percent hike seems back in the cards as the Fed’s favorite inflation measure (Core CPI) came in well above expectations.

After the close, FUJIY, STE, and DOX reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, CPNG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Finally, DIS, VIV, and OPHLY reported misses on both lines.  With that said, DIS did beat significantly on Disney+ subscription estimates.

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Cryptocurrency volatility is off the charts again, even by crypto standards.  Bitcoin was down almost 11% this morning before recovering some 8% of that loss.  This comes as COIN had to explain the risk of bankruptcy to their users after $200 billion of wealth has been wiped out by selloffs over just the last 24 hours.  At the same time Project Terra (Luna and UST stablecoins) continue to decouple from their supposed peg to the US Dollar.  At one point Wednesday, UST was trading at less than 30 cents while Luna has lost 97% of its value in the last day.

On the Russian invasion story, the Russian Foreign Ministry told the US Ambassador in Moscow that Russian-controlled portions of Ukraine will be requesting annexation by Russia.  Meanwhile, Italian PM Draghi said that Italy European companies can pay for their gas in Rubles without breaching sanctions, in direct conflict with EU guidance on the matter.  The other developments were diplomatic, with Russia warning of nuclear war if the West continues to send arms to Ukraine and train their military, Finland moving very close to requesting NATO membership, and the UK signing a security guarantee with/for Sweden.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  Taiwan (-2.43%), Hong Kong (-2.24%), and India (-2.22%) led the way lower.  However, the only exchanges to avoid a 1% loss were Shanghai (-0.12%) and Shenzhen (-0.13%).  In Europe we see the same picture taking shape at mid-day.  The FTSE (-2.04%), DAX (-1.97%), and CAC (-2.13%) are leading the way lower as disruption to natural gas supplies, disagreement over caving to Russian demands for Rubles, and inflation are the main fears of the day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day ahead of the morning data.  The DIA implies a -0.36% open, the SPY implies a -0.50% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.95% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down again to 2.841% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.3% to $104.35/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday include Apr. PPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), the WASDE Report (noon), and a Fed speaker (Daly at 3 pm).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BAM, DDS, KELYA, NICE, PRMW, TPR, USFD, and WE before the open.  Then after the close, AQN, COMP, EDR, MSI, TOST, and VZIO report.

So far this morning BAM, TOELY, SFTBF, SOMLY, UTZ, TPR, WE, and CIXX have reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, SFTBY, NSANY, CSIOY, YPF, and HIMX all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, NTTYY, SSMXY, and ALIZY have reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, SIEGY, TEF, KUBTY, SSDOY, KNBWY, BOUYY, FUJHY, STBFY, TAST, TINLY, and GHG have reported misses on both lines.

LTA Scanning Software

Premarkets continue to be red this morning with PPI and Jobless Claims coming before the bell. Geopolitical and cryptocurrency risks are also on Mr. Market’s mind. However, we have another few weeks before the next Fed hike and the betting has not changed in the last week. Most futures traders expect a half-point hike. So, we have time to adjust and no major changes are expected. Again, no need to panic or experience FOMO. If you want to trade this market, unless you are a daytrader, the smart move is to stick with the downtrend. The bears still have all the momentum.

Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. You also don’t need to be in the market all the time. If this isn’t a market condition you thrive in, then get out of the way. It will settle out at some point and it’s far better to wait and have money the market condition you prefer than to force trades now and be busted when things do turn. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. If you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Focus on your process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BTU, VET, SWN, TECK, TCOM, MOS, ABC, HAL, APA, SLB, KWEB, AIZ, L, ANTM, KR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Analysts Expect Smaller Increase on CPI

Stocks gapped up 1.5% Tuesday in what appeared to be a relief rally in the making.  However, it was a Bull Trap that the Bears sprung immediately leading to a steady selloff that lasted all morning, more than filling the gap before flattening out near the lows by lunchtime. Still, the whipsaw was not done. So, stocks reversed and a strong rally kicked in about 12:30 pm, followed by another selloff, and then another rally, etc.  This action gave us indecisive, big wick, black candles that both printed new 52-week lows and look to be ending in the green in the QQQ and SPY.  The technology and healthcare sectors led on the day with Utilities lagging. On the day, SPY was up 0.23%, DIA closed down 0.26%, and QQQ rose 1.21%.  The VXX fell 3.4% to 27.05 and T2122 remained deeply oversold at 1.33.  10-year bond yields fell but then rebounded to close just below 3% at 2.993% and Oil (WTI) fell 3.45% to $99.56/barrel. 

After the close, OXY, GFS, FNF, HRB, RXT, GO, ALC, SCSC, DAR, and ADV all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, ELY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, WELL reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, EA, COIN, RBLX, WYNN, YELL, RKT, OSCR, GSM and DBD reported misses on both lines.

Cryptocurrency markets are in turmoil as twice in the last 2 days a major “stablecoin” has decoupled from its supposed dollar pegging.  The idea behind a stablecoin is that a computer algorithm maintains a 1:1 peg to the dollar by buying/destroying digital assets.  (This would be like the dollar under the gold standard, but with a computer printing/burning dollars in an attempt to maintain the dollar-gold exchange rate.)  The first to decouple was Luna, which dove more than 80% in value.  Then UST dropped as far as to 31 cents and is now trading at 50 cents on the dollar.  Both stablecoin are part of the same project Terra.  Terra creator Do Kwon (who has also amassed billions of dollars’ worth of bitcoin) said Tuesday he is close to announcing a plan to recover and return to a 1:1 dollar peg. The moral of the story is that stablecoins aren’t.

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On the Russian invasion story, Finland’s Foreign Minister Haavisto said his country is now just days away from applying for NATO membership.  Meanwhile, the war may be expanding as Belarus moved their special forces to the border of Ukraine claiming that the US and its allies are increasing their presence on that country’s border.  Ukraine said that it will turn off natural gap pipelines from Russia to Europe as Russia’s forces have disrupted operations at several facilities.  This pipeline accounts for a third of Russian gas exports to Europe and this may well reduce supplies for EU countries.

The economic news coming later this week includes Apr. PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the WASDE Report, and a Fed speaker on Thursday.  Then on Friday, we see Apr. Imports/Exports, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and a couple more Fed speakers.

The talk in financial markets seems to be all expecting a Fed “overshoot.” In other words, they are assuming that inflation has now peaked and the Fed is behind the curve, tightening into a slowing economy. That would lead to a so-called hard landing. This is all just US-focused, but there are and will be impacts on global markets from the Russian aggression and Western responses with the CIA reporting Putin is preparing for a very long-term conflict. For example, food prices will be raised when the supply of grain is reduced a significant amount. And oil prices cannot help but be impacted as the West is at least nominally banning Russian oil while Saudi Arabia and the UAE are warning about a lack of capacity to expand production to offset those reductions. My point is that markets tend to front-run the economy by 3-9 months and it is impossible to forecast something when the future environment is not known. So, watching the chart is much better than predicting the market in months-long positions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again but on more muted moves than earlier this week.  Shenzhen (+1.80%), Hong Kong (+0.97%), and Shanghai (+0.75%) led the gains while Thailand (-0.58%), India (-0.45%), and Taiwan (-0.35%) paced the losses.  This came as Chinese Consumer Prices rose by 2.1% in April, the fastest increase since November.  Meanwhile, in Europe, markets are mostly in the green despite a spike in natural gas prices on the Russian pipeline news.  The FTSE (+1.11%), DAX (+1.29%), and CAC (+1.94%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap up to start the day once again.  The DIA implies a +0.86% open, the SPY is implying a +1.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.48% open ahead of key inflation data.  10-year bond yields are down again to 2.93% and Oil (WTI) is up almost 3.5% to $103.22/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes Apr. CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), 10-year Bond Auction (1 pm), and Apr. Fed. Budget Balance (2 pm).  There is also another Fed speaker (Bostic at noon).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ICL, NOMD, PFGC, PRGO, SLVM, TM, WEN, and WWW before the open.  Then after the close, DOX, APP, CPA, CPNG, PAAS, STE, and DIS report.

So far this morning WWW, OCPNY, and ICL have reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, NOMD, ADRNY, PCRFY, BRTHY, and EC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BRDCY, SGIOY, AJINY, MNBEY, and PRGO have reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, TM, TAK, FUJIY, AGESY, SMTOY, ATC, and WEN have reported misses on both lines.

LTA Scanning Software

Premarkets are up significantly and most analysts are saying that they expect the April CPI to show that inflation has now peaked (expecting an +8.1% print versus last month’s +8.5% number). This means that the risk this morning is on the downside as an unexpectedly hot print could reverse overnight gains and shock markets. Either way, there is no reason to panic and chase the open Futures are backing off earlier highs. Regardless of the number, the Fed is still very likely to raise rates by half a percent in June and it would take a significant shock one way or the other to move them off that amount of hike. This means that markets will still have several weeks to adjust before the Fed regardless of today’s number. Again, no need to panic or experience FOMO. So, once again the question is whether the implied gap up is a “dead cat” bounce or the beginnings of a reversal. The smart money remains in the “relief rally at best, bull trap at worst” camp given the strong bear trend and current over-extension. So, if you are bound to go long in this move, be very cautious and extremely nimble. The bears still have all the momentum.

Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. You also don’t need to be in the market all the time. If this isn’t a market condition you thrive in, then get out of the way. It will settle out at some point and it’s far better to wait and have money the market condition you prefer than to force trades now and be busted when things do turn. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. If you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Focus on your process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VMD, NXPI, OXY, MCK, WDC, HPQ, ABC, EPAM, JPM, MRK, VLO, VZ, CHRW, GSK, EXPD, PVH. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Early Bounce After Monday’s Mauling

Markets gapped down more than 1.5% today and then followed through until the SPY managed to find some support at the 500sma around 11:30 am.  Despite an hour-long mid-day attempt to bounce, the bears stepped back in to take all 3 major indices back to their lows by 2 pm and continue sliding toward the lows of the day.  The QQQ was clearly the ugliest of the major indices, with the SPY not far behind while the DIA benefitting from the safety trade printing a gap-down black Spinning Top that bounced up off the February low (probably on safety trades).  Every sector was in the red, with Energy leading the charge lower.  This left us at new 52-week lows in all 3 of the major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 3.16%, DIA lost 1.89%, and QQQ lost 3.86%.  The VXX rose 3.5% to 28.01 and the only possible silver lining for the Bulls is that the market is now very oversold with the T2122 falling to 1.33.  10-year bond yields fluctuated wildly during that day, reaching the high since 2009 (3.185%) but fell back to 3.04% by day end.  Oil (WTI) fell a whopping 6.4% to $102.75/barrel.

After the close, SPG, IFF, EQH, AMC, XPO, CLOV, HI, MRC, VRM, UNVR, and MCHP all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, ICUI, DNB, missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, IAC, CAPL, SWX, VVV, and RNG reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, NVAX, ZNGA, and PRIM reported misses on both lines.

Realtor.com reports that the supply vs. demand balance of the real estate market has started to improve.  April home for sale inventory was down just 3%-12% from the same time in 2021 and this was the smallest year-over-year drop since 2019.  The data suggest that the rapid rise in interest rates, which has made housing bubble prices even more expensive for buyers is slowing the pace of sales, despite listings being down 67% from pre-pandemic levels.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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On the Russian invasion story, MSCI research said they are now expecting Russia to default on bond payments on May 27.  Since late February, the US Treasury Dept. has been approving (on a case-by-case basis) Russian payment on bond debt.  The exemption to sanctions that allowed that flexibility expires May 25 and the firm does not believe the US will renew the exemption.  Elsewhere, NBC reports that more than 1 million Ukrainians have been forcibly relocated to Russia. Meanwhile, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimates the Russian economy will only shrink 10% in 2022 (mostly due to the huge increases in exported energy prices largely offsetting the loss of domestic activity), while the Ukrainian economy will shrink by 30%.  To me, a contraction of only 30% is nearly miraculous.  With an active war ongoing, many of the major centers of industry in ruins, all ports closed, one-third of the population now being refugees, and only half of the crops able to be planted, it is hard to see how the country’s output could be down only 30%. Finally, the US has suspended the 25% tariff on Ukrainian steel for a year. (That said, it is unclear how much steel can make it from Ukraine to the US given most steel production is in the South-Eastern parts of the country and would normally ship through the closed ports.

The Fed warned of tightening financial market liquidity overnight. Meanwhile, the market waits on more inflation data tomorrow as well as President Biden speaking on the subject at 11:30 am today…and inflation has been the key market driver for a while now. Oil markets have slumped the last two days as traders see the EU softening its sanctions on Russian oil in the face of Pro-Putin Hungary’s veto power on the ban. (The problem with the EU is that it requires unanimity to act.)

The economic news coming later this week includes Apr. CPI, Crude Oil Inventories, 10-year Bond Auction, and Apr. Fed. Budget Balance on Wednesday.  Then on Thursday, we get Apr. PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the WASDE Report, and a Fed speaker.  Finally, Friday we see Apr. Imports/Exports, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and a couple of Fed speakers.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Shenzhen (+1.37%), Thailand (+1.14%), and Shanghai (+1.06%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.84%), New Zealand (-1.34%), and Singapore (-1.25%) paced the losses.  (Hong Kong’s bad day may in part be the result of a new “pro-reintegration-to-China” leader who has taken over.  In Europe, stocks are rebounding from Monday’s terrible day as of mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.67%) lags as the “Queen’s Speech” was delivered in absentia and focuses on the high cost of living.  However, the DAX (+1.44%) and CAC (+0.96%) are typical of the region in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day as stocks try to recover some of Monday’s losses.  The DIA implies a +0.77% open, the SPY is implying a +0.87% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.32% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have dropped sharply but remain above 3% at 3.024% and Oil (WTI) is off another 1.7% to $101.41/barrel in early trading.

Once again, there is no major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday.  However, there are 5 Fed speakers scheduled (Williams at 7:40 am, Bostic at 8:30 am, Waller and Kashkari, both at 1 pm, Mester at 3 pm, and Bostic again at 7 pm).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include FOX, AHCO, ARMK, AVYA, BHC, BCO, BLDR, CCO, XRAY, DBD, DSEY, EPC, FOXA, H, IAA, IIVI, IGT, LCII, LI, LDI, MIDD, EYE, NXST, NCLH, PTON, PLTK, REYN, SONY, SYY, TDG, UWMC, and WMG before the open.  Then after the close, ADV, ALC, ELY, COIN, DAR, EA, GSM, FNF, GFS, GO, HRB, JXN, LBTYA, LNW, OXY, OSCR, RXT, RBLX, RKT, SCSC, WELL, WYNN, and YELL report.

So far this morning BAYRY, DKILY, ITOCY, BLDR, MIDD, IIVI, IAA, IGT, LCII, ARMK, and NXST have all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, SONY, NTDOY, SSUMY, TYOYY, EYE, AZUL, and SU all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, HGV has reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, NPSCY, XRAY, NCLH, PTON, RICOY, AVYA, DBD, BHC, and KWHIY have reported misses on both lines.

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Futures are backing off earlier highs. However, it appears we will still see a bounce at the open. The question is whether that is a “dead cat” bounce or the beginnings of a reversal. The smart money remains in the “relief rally only” camp given the strong bear trend and current over-extention. So, if you are bound to go long in this move, be very cautious and extremely nimble. The bears still have all the momentum and this would be an excellent place for a Bull trap. As always, don’t get caught chasing moves, and be quick to take profits when you have them.

Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. You also don’t need to be in the market all the time. If this isn’t a market condition you thrive in, then get out of the way. It will settle out at some point and it’s far better to wait and have money the market condition you prefer than to force trades now and be busted when things do turn. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. If you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Focus on your process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SHW, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, NFLX, JPM, FB, AAPL, BBIG, ADM, PEP, C, WFC, GILD, SPXS, UVXY, SQQQ . You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bears Piling On Across the Globe

On Thursday markets gapped down roughly a percent after traders had rethought their opinion of the Fed Markets opened Friday with a gap down of roughly two-thirds of a percent.  They then went on a wild up-and-down whipsaw ride that lasted the rest of the day in all 3 major indices.  This left us with large-legged, indecisive candles in all three with a Doji in the SPY and Spinning Top candles in the DIA and QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.59%, DIA lost 0.38%, and QQQ lost 1.20%.  The VXX was flat at 27.07 and T2122 fell deeper into the oversold territory to 7.48.  10-year bond yields spiked to 3.132% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 2% to $110.42/barrel.  This also capped the first 5-week losing streak that was the longest since 2011 in the SPY and since 2012 for the QQQ.

With essentially no economic news until Wednesday, two topics are likely to dominate the start of the week.  The first of these are various opinions about what the Fed has done (or will do) wrong and what that will mean for the economy and by extension the market.  The second topic is the market selloff that has been underway all year and just how much further it will fall before the bottom is reached.  On the latter subject, BAC put out a report this weekend saying that the average of the 19 last bear markets saw the average stock decline 37.3% from their 52-week high and lasted 289 days.  According to their analysis, 49% of Nasdaq stocks are already 50% below their 52-week high, 58% of them are down more than that 37.3% bear market average decline benchmark, and 77% of them are down at least 20%.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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CNBC reported that F is selling more than 8 million shares of RIVN (through GS) as the lock-up ended Sunday.  JPM also plans to sell between 13 million and 15 million shares on behalf of an unknown seller.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported Sunday that Shanghai has tightened and extended its lockdowns in hope of reaching a “zero Covid” goal by late May.  This is causing supply chain chaos for companies like AAPL, which has multiple major suppliers in the city.  One of those (Quanta) saw riots Thursday when rumors circulated around the factory of cases on the factory floor of that facility which houses 40,000 employees with as many as 12 people per room.  Hundreds of Quanta employees overpowered security and broke through containment fences in an attempt to escape the factory living conditions.

On the Russian invasion story, related to food prices/availability, the UN called for an end to the Russian blockade of the port of Odesa.  The stated reason is the need for Ukraine to be able to ship 25 million tons of grain, which has been waiting to be shipped since the start of the war.  At the other end of the Ag cycle, Ukraine announced this weekend that it was only able to plant about 48% of its crops this spring.  Roughly 25% of the Ukrainian grain crops normally stay in the country to feed that nation.  This means that best case, Ukraine expects to be able to export only one-third of the country’s normal grain exports…if it can ship any at all.  On the EU oil sanctions, pro-Putin Hungary continues to block bans on Russian oil despite being offered exemptions.  However, Saudi Arabia dropped prices for Asian and European customers by about $5/barrel for the month of June.  This is seen as a concession to Western pressure and a way to capture market share while offering an alternative to Russian crude. Reuters reported Sunday that LMT and RTX are now planning to nearly double (4000/year vs 2100 prior plan) the production of Javelin missiles.  The US has already sent many of those $176,000 units to Ukraine and this move is in anticipation of orders to replenish US stockpiles.

The economic news coming later this week includes 5 Fed speakers on Tuesday.  Then on Wednesday, we see Apr. CPI, Crude Oil Inventories, 10-year Bond Auction, and Apr. Fed. Budget Balance.  On Thursday we get Apr. PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the WASDE Report, and a Fed speaker.  Finally, Friday we see Apr. Imports/Exports, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and a couple of Fed speakers.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly all in the red, with only Shanghai (+0.09%) managing any green at all.  Hong Kong (-03.81%), Japan (-2.53%), and Taiwan (-2.19%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see red across the board at mid-day.  The FTSE (-1.87%), DAX (-1.78%), and CAC (-2.09%) are typical with some of the smaller exchanges down more in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a nasty gap lower at the open.  The DIA implies a -1.65% open, the SPY is implying a -1.98% open, and the QQQ implies a -2.49% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are spiking again to 3.177% and Oil (WTI) is down 2.3% to $107.21 in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday.  However, FOMC member Bostic does speak at 8:45 am. Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ACM, ALIT, AZUL, BNTX, CANO, CLVT, COTY, CINO, DUK, ELAN, ENR, WTRG, EXC, HGV, JLL, SPTN, TGNA, THS, TSN, and VRTV before the open.  Then after the close, AMC, EQH, BHF, BWXT, CLOV, CAPL, DNB, HI, IAC, ICUI, IFF, MCHP, MRC, NVAX, OVV, PRIM, RNG, SPG, SWX, SU, UNVR, VVV, VRM, XPO, and ZNGA report.

So far this morning WTRG, ELAN, ACM, DINO, COTY, BRPHF, KOS, and ENR have all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, CLVT missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DUK, PLTR, and THS have reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, IFNNY, PRTY, and VRTS reported misses on both lines.

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Inflation and the fear of Central Bank and government actions to tame it seems to be the proximate cause of the hard selloff that started in Asia overnight and has spread worldwide as of premarket Eastern time. The bears have all the momentum and this feels like the market might be building towards a selling crescendo that might signal a bottom is near. We are oversold, so a bounce is possible. However, this morning feels a little like capitulation. So, smart money is not expecting that bounce. Either way, caution is still the smart play since intraday chop and volatility have been the norm recently. Don’t get caught chasing moves and be nimble enough to change your positioning quickly as needed.

Staying hedged, nimble, and measured are good things…not bad. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. You also don’t need to be in the market all the time. If this isn’t a market condition you thrive in, then get out of the way. It will settle out at some point and it’s far better to wait and have money for your market than to force yourself to trade now and be busted when things do turn. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. If you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Just focus on your process and enjoy yourself. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UVXY, SQQQ, SPXS, QID, MDLZ, KHC, MDT, PRU, JPM, GE, FAS, CCJ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Payrolls, Unemployment, and Earnings

On Thursday markets gapped down roughly a percent after traders had rethought their opinion of the Fed decision, statement, and the resulting short squeeze.  After the open, it was “look out below” as the bears sold the market off hard until about 3:50 pm when the bulls stepped back in hard for the last 10 minutes of the day.  This left us with large, ugly, black candles with a bit of wick at the bottom in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 3.55%, DIA lost 3.05%, and QQQ lost a whopping 5.04%.  This made for the worst day since early 2020.  The VXX gained 8.65% to 27.00 and T2122 dropped all the way back into the oversold area at 13.01.  10-year bond yields spiked to close over 3% for the first time since 2018, closing at 3.037% and Oil (WTI) rose just under half a percent to $108.32/barrel.

During the day, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected (200k vs 180k est.) and Q1 Nonfarm Productivity fell 7.5% (the largest drop in 75 years).  This drop was over 2% worse than an already bleak estimate of -5.4%.  Elsewhere, BA announced it will be moving its corporate headquarters from Chicago to Arlington VA, where it will also build a major research facility.  Having headquarters so close to Washington DC would be in line with BA being a major military contractor. However, BA said it will maintain a significant presence in Chicago and the major production facilities will remain in the Seattle and Charleston SC areas.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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After the close, RSG, Z, DBX, TXRH, OPEN, FRG, CNXN, RYI, RDFN, MELI, and MTD all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, LYV, BMW, and UNM missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, VRTX, MNST, MCK, DASH, and FOCS reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, SQ, DVA, and SHOP reported misses on both lines.

On the Russian invasion story, reports say that Russia has stolen half a million tons of grain so far and are accelerating the theft in recent days.  The same is taking place with ag equipment like combines (harvesters) and tractors.  Much of this has so far been destined for Chechnya.  The fear is that the theft will continue since Ukraine had 5 million tons of wheat and 15 million tons of corn in storage (ready for shipment by sea) in now-occupied Southern Ukraine at the start of the invasion.  This raises fears as many in Ukraine remember the Holodomor (Terror Famine) imposed on Ukraine by the Soviet Union in the 1930s as part of Stalin’s attempts to purge the region of any even potential opposition.  This could also simply be a strategy, where Russia has accumulated enough of the world grain supply to be in a stronger position to negotiate with the West when parts of the world are starving.  At any rate, this news could well influence grain commodities and input inflation for companies like ADM, BG, MGPI, GIS, ANDE, INGR, and others.

Overnight, with the lone exception of Japan (+0.69%) the Asian markets were strongly in the red.  Hong Kong (-3.81%), Shanghai (-2.16%), and Shenzhen (-2.14%) led the selloff but significant losses were seen all across the region.  In Europe, there are a couple of minor exchanges barely hanging onto the green, but again losses are widespread at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.85%), DAX (-1.17%), and CAC (-1.47%) lead the way as usual in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures point toward a modestly down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.32%, the SPY implies a -0.49%, and the QQQ implies a -0.68% at this hour.  10-year bond yields are also up a bit to 3.093% and Oil (WTI) is spiking more than 2% to $110.55/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes Apr. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Apr. Nonfarm Payrolls, Apr. Participation Rate, and Apr. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  We also get a gaggle of Fed speakers (Williams at 9:15 am, Bostic at 3:20 pm, Waller at 7:15 pm, Bullard at 7:15 pm, and Daly at 8 pm.  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ASIX, AES, AEE, AXL, BEP, CLMT, CI, CNK, DISH, SSP, ENB, EOG, FLR, FYBR, GLP, GT, GTN, IEP, NRG, QRTEA, SPB, SR, TU, TIXT, and VST before the open.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

So far this morning CI, BCC, SPB, SR, GTN, GHLD, and TIXT have all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, ASIX, TU, FYBR, and VST all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ENB, MARUY, BEP, SCRYY, FOCS, and CLMT have reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, HOCPY, ING, AHEXY, FLR, CNK, QRTEA, DISH, EGIEY, and USM reported misses on both lines.

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After Thursday’s ugly session, the question is whether the market can manage to hold ground or will it give up the lows of the last week (also the last year). The bears certainly have the momentum and with the weekend ahead, risk appetite may be low on a Friday. We are oversold, so beware of an “oversold bounce.” Either way, caution is still the smart play since intraday chop and daily reversals have been the norm recently. Don’t get caught chasing moves only to be stuck in a reversal that you are not prepared to weather.

Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Staying hedged, nimble, and measured are good things…not bad. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. Nobody is right all the time. If you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Just focus on your process and enjoy yourself. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Idea Today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

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