Debate Did Not Thrill Bulls

Markets did very little Tuesday, perhaps waiting on either the Presidential Debate or on a stimulus package deal.  After a flat open, stocks traded flat to slightly lower on the day, printing black-body indecisive candles.  The SPY and DIA both failed to break through their 50sma and the QQQ failed to break through its 20sma.  On the day SPY was down 0.53%, DIA down 0.53%, and QQQ down 0.45%.  The VXX was down a bit to 24.91 and T2122 fell back to mid-range at 45.12.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.65% and Oil (WTI) dropped almost 4% to $38.99. 

House Democrats unveiled their $2.2 Trillion ($200 billion less than expected) stimulus plan early in the day as talks resumed between Treasury Sec. Mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi.  The Tuesday session was simply to outline the new Democrat proposal specifics with actual negotiation talks scheduled to resume Wednesday.  In related news, AAL unions and company officials said up to 19,000 employees will lose their jobs this week unless a deal is reached to support the airline industry.

After the close, DIS announced it will lay off 28,000 employees across its Theme Parks and Consumer Products divisions.  UNH also announced the purchase of an AMZN prescription mail-order service called DivvyDose.  GOOG has made a fresh round of concessions on data gathering as well as allowing third-party wearable device makers to work with Fitbit.  The concessions are likely to earn it the EU approval for its $2.1 billion purchase of Fitbit.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,406,729 confirmed cases and 210,797 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count is back up to 42,804, while the 7-day average of deaths is now 755.  New York City spiked to over a 3% positive test rate on Tuesday for the first time in months. The city may reintroduce restrictions as soon as today with the possibility of closing schools again next week if the rate does not fall.  This comes as Bloomberg reports a 40% increase in bankruptcy filings in the city compared to 2019.  In good news, REGN announced after the close that its 2-drug cocktail therapy for Covid-19 has shown to reduce the length symptoms in 275 non-hospitalized virus patients, with serious side-effects in just 2 patients in early testing.  At nearly the same time, MRNA also released its Phase 1 vaccine trial (done in April) findings of an “acceptable safety” level, with only moderate side effects found among the 40 study participants.

Globally, the numbers rose to 33,879,038 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths passed a grim milestone, now at 1,013,241 deaths. Amidst surging R-naught numbers, the Dutch government tightened restrictions Tuesday, reducing restaurant/bar hours, reducing permissible visitors to homes, reducing maximum gathering sizes to 4, and reducing room occupancy to 30.  In Germany, Chancellor Merkel vowed to avoid another full lockdown by using immediate local and regional quarantines as soon as a flare-up is detected.   This all said, France and Spain still report double the new cases daily of the UK, which itself reports triple the number of the next closest country.  So, the immediate new surge seems far worse in the South of Europe.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but lean to the red.  Australia (-2.29%), Thailand (-1.61%), and Japan (-1.5%) pace the losers.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+0.86%) and Hong Kong (+0.79%) are the only significant gainers. In Europe the losses are much more widespread so far today.  The only green is in Portugal and Greece, but it should also be said that losses are moderate so far.  The CAC is down 0.44%, the DAX down 0.42%, and the FTSE down only 0.10%.  At 7:30am, US futures are all just on the red side, pointing to a gap down of about half a percent.  However, GDP numbers at 8:30 am may greatly influence the open.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Q2 GDP (8:30 am), Sept. Chicago PMI (9:45 am), Au. Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 more Fed speakers (Kashkari at 11 am, Bowman at 1:40 pm, and Kaplan at 6 pm).  There are no major earnings reports on the day Wednesday.

Resistance held Tuesday as markets seemed to have been waiting on the debate. The futures this morning appear to signal that they didn't hear anything they loved. So, we are left waiting on more news (GDP or a stimulus deal) to push the markets one way or the other. The only thing we know for sure is that we do not yet have a bullish trend, but the September downtrend has been broken as volatility continues.

With this being month-end, it is possible we see some window dressing today, although they certainly didn't start that process yesterday. Don't try to predict or guess the direction. Mr. Market has a way of making forecasters sorry they played that game. Either sit on the sidelines or be small and quick in your trading, looking for a trend in a smaller timeframe chart.  If you do trade, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in those profits, because singles and doubles are the keys to success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: TGT, NUAN, BYND, CARR, TWTR, SNAP, PENN. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Flat Futures Await News or Debate

Monday saw a gap up open following upbeat remarks from Speaker of the House Pelosi as she was scheduled to speak to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin again during the day to renew negotiations on stimulus.  However, after the gap-up, both large-cap indices held in a tight range right at their 50-sma resistance level printing indecisive Spinning Top type candles.  Meanwhile, the tech-heavy QQQ gapped up even further and printed a much wider range, ending up at the highs of the day in a potential Hanging Man type candle.  On the day, the QQQ was up 2.08%, SPY up 1.68%, and DIA up 1.56%.  The VXX was flat at 25.41 and T2122 jumped clear up into the overbought territory at 82.26.  10-year bond yields were flat at 0.661% and Oil (WTI) was up a bit to $40.59/barrel.

In an interesting twist to the tech industry, GOOG announced Monday that starting in a year, all app-makers who distribute through their Google Play Store will be forced to use the GOOG billing system and pay GOOG a 30% fee off the top.  This falls in-line with the current AAPL policies regarding their app store, which they are being sued over by game-maker Epic Games, MTCH, and SPOT over supposed better deals that AAPL gives Netflix.

UAL pilots approved a pay cut to avoid furloughs of nearly 3,000 pilots through at least June 2021.  The 3,000 were set to be laid off on October 1st prior to the announced deal.  However, the airline is still planning to cut 13,000 jobs next month.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,361,889 confirmed cases and 209,815 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count is now at 41,604, while the 7-day average of deaths is now 755.  Dr. Fauci (NIH) said Monday that he is worried about where the US is in terms of daily case count as we enter the Fall/Winter flu season.  This comes as 33 states report rising new case counts (especially Midwest and Western states).  Both Fauci and CDC Dir. Redfield also added their concern that the President is being misinformed by new Task Force Member Atlas (a mask detractor and proponent of herd immunity) added to the Task force after being found to align with the President’s views.  All this comes as VP Pence told a presser that Americans should expect a rise in cases soon based on the worrying testing trends.  Nonetheless, in Chicago Mayor Lightfoot further eased restrictions in the city Monday.

Globally, the numbers rose to 33,585,721 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths passed a grim milestone, now at 1,007,196 deaths.  The WHO said Monday that the global Covid-19 death count is likely an underestimate.  This comes on top of a Journal of Amer. Medial Assn. (JAMA) study that found the US death count is undercounted by as much as 28%.  In Canada, the 2 largest provinces are applying broad restrictions as cases jumped 71% since August.  In Europe, the EU added 4 more countries to the red list (increased cases) including Netherlands, Denmark, Iceland and Hungary.  (Spain, France, Czech Republic, and Luxembourg were already listed).  At the same time German Chancellor Merkel is meeting with the leaders of Germany’s 16 states to discuss introducing tougher restrictions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but closer to flat.  Shenzhen and South Korea paced the gainers while Hong Kong and most of the smaller economies all came in at half a percent to one percent loss.  In Europe markets are leaning to the down side, but the worst of these moves is just over a half percent loss.  Among the 3 major bourses, CAC is flat, DAX down 0.31%, and FTSE down 0.25%.   At 7:30am, US futures are all just on the red side of flat

The major economic news for Tuesday includes August Trade Balance and August Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am), and 5 different Fed speakers (Williams at 9:15 am, Harker at 9:30 am, Clarida at 11:40 am, Quarles at 1 pm, and William again at 1 pm).  Major earnings reports are limited to INFO and MKC before the open and MU and SNX after the close. 

Markets may press pause today as they wait on the outcome of the first Presidential Debate tonight. The bulls have strung together a couple of consecutive nice days, but we still sit at resistance after a pullback of the last four weeks. This is still a volatile market with quarter-end in a couple of days. Don't try to predict. Either sit on the sidelines or be small and quick in your trading.  If you do trade, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in those profits, because singles and doubles are the keys to success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: LB, ETSY, QCOM, MRVL. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bulls Looking to Rebound at Open

Markets gapped down slightly Friday, but after bobbing around for an hour the bulls rallied the entire rest of the day.  This gave us “Morning Star Like” candle signals in all 3 of the major indices.  On the day SPY was up 1.62%, DIA was up 1.34%, and QQQ was up 2.32%.  However, none of the three have broken their downtrend as we saw a fourth straight week of lower closes in the SPY and DIA.  The VXX fell 2.48% to 25.54 and T2122 rose to 18.84, but remains just inside the oversold territory.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.656% and Oil (WTI) fell back to $40.04/barrel.

Sunday Speaker of the House Pelosi said she is making another offer to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin in their negotiations while House Democrats move ahead with plans for a new $2.4 Trillion stimulus bill.  She told reporters that the new offer will be revealed shortly and that there is still a chance for a deal.  However, this seems like quite a mountain to climb with the Senate and White House focused on confirming ACB to the Supreme court and both parties heavily into campaign mode (doing their best to appease the extremes of their 2 bases).

In the ongoing TikTok saga, a Federal Judge blocked President Trump’s ban on TikTok and WeChat as unconstitutional Sunday evening.  However, the judge did not block a broader set of restriction set to go into place November 12 that might effectively make TikTok unusable in the US anyway.  Beyond the legal finding, the two sides to the deal (ORCL – WMT) and Byte Dance continue to argue over the terms of the deal, including ORCL claiming Byte Dance will retain no ownership of the new company, while all along it has been reported Byte Dance would retain 80% ownership.   

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,321,465 confirmed cases and 209,454 deaths.  As usual, the weekend new case counts were down after seeing 55,000 on Friday.  The 7-day average daily new case count is now at 41,461. Deaths came back atypically low at 276 while the 7-day average number is now 759.  All this comes as FL Gov. Desantis did his Florida Man impression by completely opening the state and dropping restrictions.

Globally, the numbers rose to 33,342,965 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths passed a grim milestone, now at 1,002,985 deaths.  In the UK, one of the government science advisors has told the press he supports a repeated “mini-lockdown” (14-day) approach as a way to reduce case growth as the UK saw a 60% increase in cases in the last week.  In France, intensive care admissions have more than tripled in the Southern region of the country.  Down under in Australia, an inquiry has found that a “quarantine hotel” failed to do the isolation demanded in May (visitors, including sex workers, having been allowed into the hostel), which led to over 18,000 infections and over 750 deaths in the state of Victoria.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side.  Japan (+1.32%), South Korea (+1.29%), and Taiwan (+1.88%) paced the gainers. China, Indonesia, and Australia led the losers.  However, in Europe stocks are strongly in the green across the board so far today.  The DAX is up 2.61%, CAC up 1.94%, and FTSE up 1.32%.  At 7:30am, US futures are also pointing to a gap higher at the open.  The QQQ is pointing to a 1.70% gap up, and both large cap indices are implying a 1.31% gap up as markets look to rebound after four straight down weeks and Quarter-end coming in a few days.

The only economic news of note for Monday is a Fed speaker (Mester at 2 pm). The only major earnings reports on the day are THO before the open and UNFI after the close.

The bulls are looking to rally at the open. This could be a response to the oversold conditions after 4 down weeks. Or it might be an attempt at quarter-end window-dressing. In either case, be wary of chasing gaps against the trend. All we can do is either sit on the sidelines or be very careful and quick in this market.  If you do trade, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in profits, because it’s the singles and doubles that add up to championships, not the occasional home runs. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: SRNE, PINS, FSLY, GAME. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Slim Hope Alive for More Stimulus

Markets gapped down about a half percent Thursday after a worse than expected Weekly Jobless Claims number.  However, the bulls stepped in and rallied markets much of the day.  Then about 2pm markets sold off again taking us back near Wednesdays close before a last-minute rally.  On the day, QQQ was up 0.47%, SPY up 0.28%, and DIA up 0.19% with all 3 leaving large upper wicks.  The VXX fell about 2% to 26.19 and T2122 stayed deeply oversold at 1.50.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.664% and Oil (WTI) rose three-quarters of a percent to $40.22/barrel.

Regardless of your political or economic philosophy, we know markets love "free money" coming from Washington. So, in a follow-up story to the Fed requests for more fiscal stimulus this week, House Speaker Pelosi has instructed her committee chairs to draft another relief package (which will undoubtedly look very similar to the previous package the House passed).  It will include additional enhanced unemployment, direct payments to Americans, small business loans, and aid to the airline industry. The House may vote on this new bill as soon as early next week and the new price tag is said to be $2.4 trillion (which is essentially exactly where the Democrats were when the talks collapsed, but $1 trillion below the last bill the House passed in May).  Last week White House Chief of Staff (and negotiator) Meadows had said the Administration would okay $1.5 trillion.  So, the hope is that this new bill will restart negotiations. However, it remains a longshot as the sides (and even factions on the Republican side) remain far apart.

Following-up to the “TikTok Deal” story (involving ORCL and WMT), things are still unclear.  The Chinese government has not approved the deal, but Byte Dance has applied for a Chinese export license which would allow a partial transfer.  In the US, a Federal Judge has asked the Administration whether it will defer the ban on TikTok and WeChat again or defend their policy in hearings over the weekend.  (No reply yet.)  Meanwhile the President’s claims that ORCL would get full access to all TikTok source code conflicts with Byte Dance’s statements that the new company would buy use of the algorithms, etc. from the Chinese-located parent company, which is where actual processing would occur. And, of course, the President’s claim that Byte Dance would pay $5 billion for an educational project have been denied by Byte Dance.  However, it is known the claim that the board of the new company would all be Americans is false.  The board would include 4 undetermined American Citizens and Chaired by Byte Dance founder Zhang Yiming (with Byte Dance holding 80% of the ownership).   

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,185,915 confirmed cases and 207,540 deaths.  The daily new case count grew to 45,355, well above the 7-day average of new cases.  Deaths came back to typical numbers at 942 for Thursday, well above the average of 761 per day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 32,454,833 confirmed cases and 988,497 deaths.  As witnessed by the lockdown in Israel, there appears to be a surge in the middle east with Lebanon, UAE, Bahrain.  Oddly, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar have all reported dramatic drops in the number of new cases over the last month.  In Europe, the spread continues with Poland, Russia, and the Czech Republic all seeing the highest increase in cases in several months.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with India, Australia, and Japan pacing the winners.  China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong paced the losers, though most losses were moderate.  However, stocks are decidedly bearish so far today in Europe.  The DAX is down 1.67%, CAC down 1.76%, and FTSE down 0.57%.  The rest of the bourses are all well into the red as well. At 7:30am, US futures are pointing to another gap down open.  The QQQ is pointing to a modest open 0.30% lower, but the large-cap SPY (-0.63%) and DIA (-0.78%) are implying a bigger gap down as markets are staring into a fourth straight losing week.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to August Durable Goods (8:30 am). There are also no major earnings reports for the day.

The bulls tried to come back on Thursday, but rolled over and gave back ground in the afternoon.  This left us with nothing but an indecisive day in a downtrend.  While this relative pause was expected after a brutal Wednesday, it does nothing to buoy spirits coming into Friday.  The bears continue to smell blood and volatility remains high.  All we can do is either sit on the sidelines or be very careful and quick in this market.  If you do trade, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in profits, because it’s the singles and doubles that add up to championships, not the occasional home runs.  Finally, remember it’s Friday.  So make a conscious decision about what positions and/or hedges you want to carry over the weekend news cycle.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: TZA, SDS, SQQQ. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bears Roar, JPM Settles, and Fed Pleads

Markets opened mixed on small gaps, but then the bears took over for an all-day selloff with prices closing near the lows.  The SPY and DIA printed large Bearish Engulfing candles and the QQQ missed only due to a small gap-down open.  In particular, TSLA was hammered (-10.34%) over poor “Battery Day” announcements, but to be fair, all the FAANGM stocks were hit hard.  On the day, DIA was down 1.92%, SPY down 2.32%, and QQQ down 3.05%. The VXX gained over 5% and T2122 fell dramatically deep into the oversold territory at 1.11.  10-year bond yields were flat at 0.674% and Oil (WTI) was only down slightly to $39.55/barrel.

JPM agreed to pay a $1 billion penalty for manipulations (spoofing) of the metals and treasuries markets to end the ongoing investigations by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the SEC.  However, the settlement is not expected to result in any business restrictions against JPM.  (Spoofing is the practice of floor traders submitting orders to force prices one direction or the other and then canceling the orders before they are executed.) In either an odd coincidence or a case of PR, within an hour of that announcement, JPM also announced they are spending $1 billion to for a workplace diversity program.

A couple of quick tidbits:

  • Fed Chair Powell again urged the Senate to provide more fiscal stimulus. This was more of a case of pleading than the prior day's testimony before the House.
  • In an interesting twist to the trade war, TSLA has sued the US government.  They are demanding an end to tariffs on parts they import from China as well as a refund of the tariffs they have paid since 2019 (plus interest).  They may have a point when companies like AAPL got exemptions after appeals directly to the President.
  • IBKR signaled that they expect a big account default risk around the election.  In a message to account holders, they said they are raising Margin Requirements to 67.5% (from 50%) and the Maintenance Requirement to 33.75% (from 25%).  They specifically noted the options prices indicate huge volatility around the election, especially the increased probability of a contested election.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,140,137 confirmed cases and 206,598 deaths.  The daily new case count was at 41,616 Wednesday, just above the 7-day average of new cases, which is 41,293 per day (about double where they were when easing began).  Deaths came back to typical numbers at 1,112 for Wednesday, well above the average of 751 per day.  CDC Chief Redfield told the Senate that over 90% of Americans are still susceptible to the virus based on a preliminary study by the CDC.  Meanwhile, 22 states reported rising new case counts.  For his part, President Trump told reporters that he has the right to overrule the FDA and their guidelines for approving the use of any vaccine.  As reported in past weeks, the JNJ vaccine just now starting Phase 3 trials could be a game-changer.  Instead of needed 2-3 doses, it requires only 1 dose, and most importantly it does not need to be stored at 50 degrees below zero like the other candidates in Phase 3.  However, the JNJ Phase 3 trial is just starting and they need 60,000 participants (when it has taken 1-2 months for others to find 30,000-40,000).

Globally, the numbers rose to 32,134,999 confirmed cases and 982,698 deaths.  Israel has significantly tightened its second national lockdown as cases continue to rise.  The new measures call for total lockdown (closed non-essential business and government offices as well as all public spaces) for 2 weeks followed by 2 more weeks of “closure.”  In the UK, the government is mulling a plan to accelerate vaccine trials by deliberately exposing participants to the virus (which would greatly decrease the time it takes to reach statistically significant numbers for the trial).  Oddly, the UK also said that at the peak of the first wave they were seeing 100,000 new cases per day, but are now only seeing 10,000/day.  This is odd because they have reported only 412,000 total cases

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly red across the board.  Japan, China, and South Korea all lost 1.5% – 2.5%.  A similar story is shaping up in Europe, but so far the red is much more modest as of mid-day.   At 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a flat to a slightly lower open.  Only the QQQ is pointing to more than a 0.15% gap down (at -0.40%) with markets possibly waiting on jobless data for a guide.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), August New Home Sales (10 am) and 3 speakers (Fed Chair Powell at 10 am, Tres. Sec. Mnuchin at 10 am, and FOMC member Williams at 2 pm).  However, there are several earnings reports with CAN, DRI, JBL, KMX, and RAD reporting before the open.  Then after the close COST reports.

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to September PMI (9:45 am), Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed Speakers (Chair Powell testifies again at 10 am, Mester at 9 am, and Quarles at 2 pm).  However, there are major earnings reports with CTAS, GIS, and JKS before the open. Then FUL reports after the close.

Given Wednesday’s heavy selloff, the fact we are near potential short-term support, and the extreme oversold T2122, it is possible we see a rest day today.  However, the bears do smell blood and the high-flying FAANGM stocks that have dragged markets up for months are showing no signs of life.  Be careful of volatility and remember that you do not have to trade every day.  You won’t miss anything.  There will be another train coming into the station tomorrow.  If you do trade, as always, stick to your plans, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in profits, because it’s the singles and doubles that add up to championships, not the occasional home runs. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: BBBY, SQQQ, SQ, MAS, XRT, URI, NVR. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Govt to Stay Open and Vaccine News

Tuesday saw just under a one percent gap higher in the QQQ and a half percent gap up in the SPY.  This was followed by intraday fading of the gap followed by the normal volatility up to mid-day. At that point, a rally lasting all afternoon ran all 3 major indices to close near their highs.  This gave us white hammer type candles in all those indices.  On the day, DIA closed up 0.50%, SPY up 1.02%, and QQQ up 1.86%.  VXX also gained slightly to 25.36 and T2122 rose, but still remains in the oversold territory at 14.47.  10-year bond yields were flat at 0.672% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $39.55/barrel. All-in-all, not a bad day given the September selloff we have seen so far.

As expected, Fed Chair Powell told Congress more fiscal stimulus is needed in his testimony.  Treasury Sec. Mnuchin agreed, but put in a qualifier on the statement, saying “I believe a targeted package is still needed"  However, Chief Economic Advisor Kudlow told reporters that more stimulus was not needed, but a targeted package could be a great help to a V-shaped recovery.  In an unrelated story, a deal was reached overnight to keep the government open and was passed by the House last night and sent to Senate. The deal includes more funds for school meals and more funds for farm aid.

Bloomberg reported interesting news in the vaccine race.  PFE has said they will do a results analysis as soon as they reach 32 vaccinated but also infected patients (vaccine failures) and expect this to be next week. They will consider any participant who both tests positive and has any symptom to be one of their cases. So, I guess a positive test alone does not count as a vaccine failure.  (32 seems like an awfully small number to draw any conclusions from in a test planned to use 44,000 subjects, but they are looking at failures.)  This will also be the first of four attempts (an unprecedented number apparently) with the last being when they reach 164 cases, to find a good enough ratio to prove efficacy.  This approach gives PFE a leg up on finding a “first proven vaccine” over rivals like MRNA (which won’t take a first peek until they find 53 failure cases on their way to 151 cases) and AZN (which will take its first look at 75 cases on the way to 150 cases).

In addition, apparently none of the current Phase 3 trials will know if their vaccine candidate actually lowers the number of hospitalizations until February.  Yet PFE is said to expect to have reached a conclusion on their candidate sometime in October, based on an extrapolation from a much smaller dataset than the actual whole trial.  This multi-look approach gives PFE an edge on being first to find a “viable vaccine," which is all the market likely cares about at least initially.  In an unrelated story, the FDA said Tuesday it is tightening the approval standards, which may well slow vaccine emergency use approval.  This seems contrary to the Bloomberg article, but the FDA "tightening" may just be a vaccine acceptance PR tactic.  Additionally, JNJ has said this morning they are also entering Phase 3 trials of their own candidate vaccine with hopes of enrolling 60,000 participants in the weeks and months to come.

On the virus front itself, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,098,291 confirmed cases and 205,491 deaths.  The daily new case count was down at less than 36,000, but the 7-day average of new cases remains over 41,000 per day.  Deaths came back to a more typical number of 969 after the unexpected drop on Monday.  However, that drop did pull down the average deaths to 735/day.  The President said Tuesday that the US will remain open regardless of the new measures underway in Europe or the UK. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 31,824,908 confirmed cases and 976,155 deaths.  So, the globe is seeing about 300,000 newly reported cases and 6,000 reported deaths per day.  As expected, the UK re-entered a partial national lockdown Tuesday.  UK PM Johnson urged workers to work from home if at all possible, reduced pub/restaurant hours, reduced permissible gathering sizes, etc. However, he stopped short of an actual 14-day national lockdown that some advisors were urging.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on moderate moves with the obvious exception of Australia which was up almost 2.5%.  Japan, South Korea, and Shanghai were just on the green side of break-even while Japan was on the red side of flat.  Taiwan was down half a percent.  However, in Europe we are seeing green across the board so far today on significant moves.  The FTSE is up 2.3%, DAX up 1.65%, and CAC up 1.9% at midday.  As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing higher.  The QQQ is lagging with an implied open up 0.2%, but the SPY is looking toward a 0.4% gap up and the DIA 0.8% higher open. 

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to September PMI (9:45 am), Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed Speakers (Chair Powell testifies again at 10 am, Mester at 9 am, and Quarles at 2 pm).  However, there are major earnings reports with CTAS, GIS, and JKS before the open. Then FUL reports after the close.

The strong close Tuesday and apparent gap coming this morning certainly look like the rebound is in play. Remember that we still have a number of potential resistance levels above, but price gets the only vote that counts (especially in the short term). Continue to be wary of volatility and keep in mind that the trend still remains bearish. So, be careful chasing unless you are fast or can take the heat. However, it looks like a bulish morning. Stick to your rules, keep locking-in profits, and remember trading is a job for the long-haul...not a get rich quick scheme. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: DG, PENN, DHI, CZR, FSLY. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Powell Testifies Amid Virus Concern

Monday saw a brutal gap down on virus concerns, another big bank scandal, and the political news related to the replacement (or not) of Justice Bader-Ginsberg.  Volatility continued all day with a later afternoon rally driving price back up into the gap.  The result as a strong white candle (if you look past the gap down) in the QQQ, but big indecision in the DIA and a white Hammer in the SPY.  On the day, QQQ gained 0.24%, SPY lost 1.04%, and DIA lost 1.84%.  Oddly, VXX did not shoot higher, rising only to 25.16, but T2122 sank clear to the bottom of the oversold range at 2.28.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.672% and Oil (WTI) also fell 3.5% to $39.65/barrel.

During the day House Speaker Pelosi proposed the Democratic bill for additional stopgap funding to keep the government running past the September 30 deadline.  However, Senate Majority Leader McConnell immediately criticized the bill because it did not contain the additional money for farm aid that the President wanted added.  To be fair, many things were not in the bill, including extra funding for the Democrat favorite food assistance program.  It was not mentioned, but another fundamental difference between the sides is that Republicans want the bill to include funding through January 2021 (when the next Congress is seated) while Democrats want funding only through the election.  In this case, the Democratic bill offered a compromise of funding through December 20.

In the pre-release of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for today he says “Many economic indicators show economic indicators show marked improvement…Both employment and overall economic activity, however, remain well below their pre-pandemic levels, and the path ahead continues to be highly uncertain,”  He goes on to push for more virus control and stimulus as he also says “The path forward will depend on keeping the virus under control, and on policy actions taken at all levels of government.”  Both he and Treasury Sec. Mnuchin are likely to face questions on the massively unused Fed Main Street Loan program (which stimulus legislation cannot be forgiven) as opposed to the PPP loan program many expect to be forgiven.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,046,444 confirmed cases and 204,515 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases is rising again, now over 41,000 per day.  However, deaths dropped dramatically for some unknown reason to just 388 on Monday.  This dropped the average to just under 800/day.  Republicans in the Senate proposed $28 billion in aid for the airline industry ($3 billion more than asked) in an attempt to stave off 30,000 job cuts now planned in two weeks.  This is likely a DOA proposal since the two parties have not agreed to an overall stimulus plan.

Globally, the numbers rose to 31,517,736 confirmed cases and 970,077 deaths.  In the UK, there were ominous signs Monday.  The country’s 2 top scientists addressed a presser where they said the UK is back to 10,000 new cases per day in a growth rate that may send them to 50,000/day by mid-October unless the spread is arrested (implied as a new national lock-down).  The government then raised the alert level to 4 (transmission if high or rising exponentially).  Level 5 is another national lockdown.  PM Johnson is set to address an emergency meeting, Parliament, and the Public Tuesday where many expect additional measures to be announced.  (JPM says that if another 2-week lockdown were to happen, it would knock another 2% off the UK’s 2020 GDP.)  Elsewhere in Europe, Spain has reentered partial national lockdown (and full lockdown in Madrid) and France cases continue to spike in various cities

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red again.  Japan eked out a small gain while New Zealand and Malaysia managed slightly better, but still modest gains.  However, China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong were all down over 1% and South Korea lost 2.4% on the day.  In Europe, the picture is brighter as we find modest green numbers across the board as of mid-day. Again today, the DAX leads the way, up just under 1% so far.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed.  The Large-Caps are on either side of flat, but the NASDAQ is pointing to a half-percent gap higher at the open.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to August Existing Home Sales (10 am) and, as mentioned, Fed Chair Powell testifies (10:30 am).  On the earnings front, the only major announcements scheduled are AZO before the open and KBH and NKE after the close.

Markets may be looking to bounce back from Monday's ugly start to the week. Possibly Fed Chair Powell's soothing talk of "more stimulus as long as it's needed" will do the trick. However, no more progress on the fiscal stimulus side and political rancor will not help. News of the expansion of virus-fighting measures in the UK (and the rest of Europe) is also going to be a damper.

Remember that we've seen "gap and fade" or "gap and indecision" for some time. So, be careful chasing unless you are fast or can take the heat. Follow the trend, which is clearly bearish now, don't think you can pick bottoms, but also don’t chase moves that have gotten away. Stick to your rules, keep locking-in profits, and remember trading is a job for the long-haul...not a get rich quick scheme. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: PENN, NVTA, DDOG, FDX, PGR, LH, TGT, CZR, WHR, DGX, FSLY. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Virus and ORCL-TikTok Lead Markets

Markets saw a minor gap down Friday, but it was immediately followed up by a strong selloff that lasted until 1:30 pm.  However, the bears called a week at that point and the bulls put in a relief rally into the close.  On the day we still saw ugly black candles that failed the 50sma, including a Bearish Engulfing in the QQQ.  At the close, DIA was down 1.09%, SPY down 1.55%, and QQQ down 1.28%.  The VXX was flat at 24.37 and T2122 fell back to 34.91.  10-year bond yields were up slightly to 0.697% and Oil (WTI) was flat on the day at $40.98/barrel.  This culminated a 3rd consecutive down week, in volatile trading.

On Saturday President Trump approved the ORCL / WMT and Byte Dance deal but did so while saying it includes a $5 billion fund to pay for an educational project.  Byte Dance announced they were unaware that any such fund was part of the deal.  So, that part of the announcement appears to be more gamesmanship by the President.  The deal will also still need the approval of the Chinese government.  However, Monday a Chinese state-backed media outlet called the deal “unfair but reasonable” in a possible preview of the official reaction.

To give that deal time to reach approvals, the President did extend the deadline for a ban on TikTok until next week.  However, on Sunday a Federal judge blocked the Administration ban of TikTok and WeChat altogether. (Although a long back-and-forth legal battle is expected up through the tiers of courts.)  So, momentarily it appeared that ORCL and WMT had gotten what they wanted (a toehold in the Social Media space) and they still may. However, that clarity was quickly replaced in favor of more political and legal limbo.

The big US banks are reportedly back in hot water (and reacting in pre-market). US Government files were leaked this morning showing that at least JPM and BK, had joined Germany's Deutsche Bank and the UK's Standard Chartered to launder $2 trillion in illicit funds over nearly 2 decades.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,004,990 confirmed cases and 204,118 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases is rising again at 41,330 per day.  However, the average for deaths (which lags) is still trending down at 800 per day.  Meanwhile, on Friday, the CDC reversed its caving to political pressure and changed its guidance for asymptomatic individuals.  The new guidance says that anyone who is exposed to an infected person needs a be tested, regardless of whether or not they show symptoms.  Bloomberg reported that this change was planned earlier, but delayed by a long “review and approval” by Administration outside the CDC.  On Sunday we learned that 31 states have more new cases this week than last and 25 of those states have a higher test result positivity than the previous week.  The fear is that this is another example of a holiday-caused surge as too many Americans ignore guidelines or have relaxed their adherence

Globally, the numbers rose to 31,263,651 confirmed cases and 965,398 deaths.  Even with the new lock-down in the Northeast of their country, UK cases are rising.  Sunday talk was that London is the next potential “local” mini-lockdown (2 weeks) as the Mayor met with the City Council in private session Sunday while UK PM Johnson is expected to address the country again as soon as Tuesday.  In Germany, mandatory mask use has been reintroduced in areas (Munich region).  Elsewhere, the recent Australian whole state lockdown has been vindicated as restrictions are beginning to ease and the new case count has dropped by a factor of 60.

Overnight, Asian markets were back to being mixed, but the largest economies leaned positive.  China was up 1.5-2%, while Japan and South Korea were on the green side of flat.  Europe has seen a similar situation so far this morning.  However, European moves have been more modest and lean more to the red side at this point.  The FTSE and CAC are on the red side of flat while the DAX is up a third of a percent at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed with the large-caps split modestly on either side of break-even and the NASDAQ pointing toward a half percent gap higher.

The major economic news for Monday is limited to 3 Fed speakers (Chair Powell at 10 am, Brainard at noon, Williams at 2 pm).  Once again there are no major earnings reports on the day.

Coming off the first 3-week losing streak since March, markets look set to gap lower at the open Monday. However, "gap and rebound" volatility has been the norm in volatile markets recently.  So, be careful, but, as always, stick to your plans. Follow the trend, but don’t chase moves you have missed.  (There is always another trade coming soon…no need to suffer FOMO.)  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

ORCL-TikTok and New Stress Tests

Thursday saw a strong gap lower (about 1.6%).  This was met with a strong rally that faded most of that gap by 11:15 am, but then the bears stepped back in and sold back off back to the lows by 12:30 pm.  The rest of the day was smaller waves in the roller coaster ride.  The 50sma held as support in the SPY, but the QQQ has given up the 50sma and the DIA has not reached it yet.  On the day, QQQ lost 1.56%, SPY lost 0.87%, and DIA lost 0.52%.  All closed up off the lows, but far from the highs as well.  The VXX closed down again to 24.38 and T2122 was back down to 46.63.  10-year bond yields were up slightly to 0.689% and Oil (WTI) rose again to $41.04/barrel.

White House Chief of Staff Meadows met with Airline executives during the day and after the meeting told the press that the President supports $25 billion of “narrow” relief for the industry.  (The industry, led by UAL, AAL, and unions have been seeking that amount in additional relief funds for the last month or so.  The threat has been that if they cannot get the additional bailout funds, on top of the recent buyouts, retirements and furloughs, a major wave of new layoffs would come as soon as this fall.)  No word on plans to execute on a bailout or of specific legislation offered. However, they did get the President's public support of the additional $25 billion (although it did not come directly from the President and the term "narrow" was not defined).

After the close, the Fed announced it will decide by the end of the month if it will continue capping Big Bank dividends.  (For reference WFC was one of the big banks to reduce dividends when the cap was announced in June.) This news comes as another stress test will be started soon.  However, in a change from the previous protocol, this time around the Fed says it will publish company-specific stress findings for each of the 34 institutions it tests.  The Fed announcement went on to outline two severe recession scenarios it will use in the stress testing of reserves this time around.

On Thursday ORCL and Byte Dance both agreed to a Treasury Dept. change of terms for their partnership deal.  The changes were aimed at heading off the White House  national security concerns (oddly that Byte Dance cannot access to user-tracking information the same way that AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, FB, MSFT, other App makers and every Internet Service Provider already use and track the same customer usage/tracking data).  The two other main provisions are ORCL getting complete access to TikTok source code and the entire board of the new company being made up of American citizens regardless of new the company being a foreign entity or what the ownership shares will be.  In a potential twist, WMT is now expected to partner with ORCL on the deal. (In last-second news, it was just announced the White House will block downloads of TikTok and WeChat as of Sunday. No word on the approval/disapproval of the Treasury-revised deal.)

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,875,103 confirmed cases and 202,219 deaths.  We saw another uptick to 46,295 new cases (well above the 7-day average), but new deaths dropped off a bit to 879 (still just above the 7-day average). In good news, TX moved forward to the next step in their reopening.  They now allow all retail stores, office buildings, restaurants, factories, gyms, and museums to reopen immediately at 75% capacity as long as the hospitals in their region stay below capacity thresholds.

Globally, the numbers rose to 30,380,035 confirmed cases and 951,150 deaths.  In the UK, the Northeast region of England has re-entered lockdown in an effort to stop a new surge in cases.  Other areas of the country are implementing partial measures such as limiting gatherings to single-family and stopping counter restaurant and bar service (so-called table service only).  This comes as testing demand is over 1 million per day, but capacity is only 230,000 tests/day. In Parliament, Government Ministers blamed the public for the problem, saying that only people told by a health professional should attempt to be tested.

Overnight, Asian markets were back to being mixed, but the largest economies leaned positive.  China was up 1.5-2%, while Japan and South Korea were on the green side of flat.  Europe has seen a similar situation so far this morning.  However, European moves have been more modest and lean more to the red side at this point.  The FTSE and CAC are on the red side of flat while the DAX is up a third of a percent at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed with the large-caps split modestly on either side of break-even and the NASDAQ pointing toward a half percent gap higher.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  Once again there are no major earnings reports on the day. However, this is Options Expiration Friday.

Gap and fade or indecision seems to be the standard operating procedure in markets recently.  So, be careful of volatility.  Also, don’t get caught off-guard by any pinning related to options expiration today.  (There are a lot of inexperienced options traders out there right now that Mr. Market has to introduce to the pinning trick.)  As always, stick to your plans, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  (There is always another trade coming soon…no need to suffer FOMO.)  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits.  Also remember that Friday is payday.  So, take a paycheck and consider whether you want to lighten up or hedge going into the weekend news cycles. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: NIO, DOW, DFS, GPC, COF, MMM, KSS, TRUE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Market Mulls A Lot of Gov't News Today

Wednesday saw another gap higher (about 3 or 4 tenths of a percent) in spite of an August Retail Sales number that missed estimates by 40%.  The roller coaster ride followed with the climax being a strong rally at 2pm (after the Fed said interest rates will remains near zero for at least 3 years) and an even stronger selloff at 3pm.  On the day SPY was down 0.38%, DIA up 0.16%, and QQQ down 1.59% as the techs continued to get hammered.  This gave us big bearish candles in the QQQ and SPY as well as an ugly high wick in the DIA.  Oddly enough VXX also fell on the day, ending at 24.96 and T2122 climbed to 71.71.  10-year bond yield rose slightly to 0.697% and Oil (WTI) was up over 5% to $40.24/barrel.

As mentioned, the big news on the day was the Fed confirming what individual Fed voters have been saying for quite some time.  The FOMC will hold rates essentially at zero percent for years to come, specifically at least through 2023.  Nonetheless, they also improved their GDP forecast to a 3.7% contraction (when the last forecast was for a 6% contraction as recently as June).  However, on the other side, they also reduced the 2021 GDP forecast from 5% growth to 4% growth.  Chair Powell also said the Fed is working on changes to the Main Street Lending Program (which has been a flop with less than one-quarter of one percent of available funds being requested as loans as of now) to make it more widely accessed.

President Trump took a step back from his former position and called on the GOP to support a much larger stimulus package than either the Administration or the Senate Republicans had previously said they would accept.  He didn’t mention a specific amount, but White House Chief of Staff Meadows later told the press that $1.5 trillion could be acceptable.  (This number is halfway between the Republicans original $1 trillion and the Democrats most recent offer of $2 trillion.  However, it’s a full trillion dollars over what Senate Republicans had wanted in their “Skinny Bill” as late as last week.)  Both Meadows and House Speaker Pelosi said they are more hopeful of a deal now than they have been in 3 months.  Senate Majority Leader McConnell refused to comment.  For his part Fed Chair Powell reiterated that he still feels more fiscal support is likely needed with 11 million people out of work, small businesses struggling and local government revenues having dropped. In an unrelated story, House Republicans are moving to force a vote to re-issue the $138 billion of PPP program funds that went unrequested from the last stimulus bill. It's unclear if there would be more demand now than earlier, but it is a sound political move and the market loves stimulus whether real or paper.

As for the ORCL- Byte Dance partnership deal for TikTok US operations, both Sec. of State Pompeo and President Trump said they don’t like what they have heard.  While not an outright disapproval of the deal, it cannot be seen as a positive thing with just 3 days remaining until the White House-imposed deadline.  On the positive side, the President did admit that he has given up on the government "getting a lot of money” for forcing the deal (government lawyers have explained to him that is not legal).  Still, that was never a real obstacle to a deal.  The crux of the issue is that the White House insists on a sale of the business and its technology assets while China has said it will not allow the sale of the technology (search and user interest tracking algorithms, etc.).  On top of that, apparently no suitor has offered what Byte Dance feels is fair compensation for the entire business (the Oracle deal would leave Byte Dance with majority ownership in the new shell company).

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,828,698 confirmed cases and 201,366 deaths.  We saw another uptick to 40,154 new cases and 1,151 deaths. On Wednesday CDC Director Redfield told a Senate committee that masks are the most important tool we have and may well be more effective than a vaccine.  In the same testimony, he said most people will not be able to access a vaccine until mid-2021 and the process would take 6-9 months to get enough people vaccinated twice to provide community herd immunity. (Beyond the supply issues, another hurdle will be the public.  Two days ago, a non-partisan 1,200 respondent Kaiser Foundation poll found that only 42% of Americans will get vaccinated even when it is available.)  In a different hearing, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told House lawmakers that while October data is theoretically possible, he expects data about the efficacy and safety of the early vaccine candidates to become available in November or December. (Oddly, he also said that US phase 3 trials are still only about two-thirds enrolled with approved healthy participants at this point.)  However, as he often does, President Trump told reporters that the experts were wrong, large-scale vaccine distribution will begin about mid-October and 100 million vaccine doses will have already been distributed in the US by year-end. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 30,073,744 confirmed cases and 945,817 deaths.  The WHO came out against “Covid-19 passports” (passports that would allow test-free and quarantine-free travel for people with antibodies), because there are no studies on how universal immunity would be or how long immunity lasts.  The renewed spread in Europe continues, but that is dwarfed by India, which reported a record high of 97,800 new cases today.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board, with the lone exception of Shenzhen which managed +0.08%.  The biggest losers were Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australia which were all down over 1.2%.  Europe has followed Asia so far today with red across the board.  However, only the Netherlands is down more than a percent as of 7:30am.  Speaking of that time, as of then the US futures are pointing to a gap lower. The Nasdaq implies a gap down of 1.63%, the SPY a dap down of 1.13%, and the DIA a gap down of 0.81%. 

The major economic news for Thursday includes August Building Permits, August Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am).  However, once again there are no major earnings reports on the day.

Be careful of volatility with gap and reverse being the norm recently in the mornings.  Stick to your plans.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed…there will be another one soon.  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits.  Remember, trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: TRUE, COF, MDB, MKC, HLT, ADSK, MMM, WFC, PYPL, AXP. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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