The so-called Phase 1 trade deal has become a ridiculous political
football creating a frustratingly news-driven market chopping up trader’s
accounts. The President says maybe we wait
until after the 2020 election, and the Dow drops more than 400 points. Bloomberg puts out a story citing “people
familiar with the talks,” and suggests a deal is edging closer, and the Dow gaps
up. All of the drams over a trade deal
that we no one really knows what it does or does not include. Silly!
The good news is that even though the short-term index trends broke
yesterday the bulls found the energy to defend important price supports and
longer-term trends. However, traders
will have to remain very nimble in this emotional football continues to be kicked
around.
Asian market closed seeing only red across the board overnight
with European markets in reaction to the Bloomberg story reversed early losses and
currently see green across the board. US
Futures ahead of earnings and economic reports are also reacting sharply higher
after the Bloomberg report with the Dow expected to gap up triple digits in
reaction.
On the Calendar
On the hump day Earnings Calendar, we have 31 companies
reporting their results. Notable reports
include RH, WORK, HOME, CPB, FIVE, HRB, RY, TLYS, and VRNT.
Action Plan
Yesterday the President said it might be better to wait
until after the 2020 election to make a deal with China. Commerce secretary came out echoing those
comments and said they have not ruled out imposing tariffs on imported European
Autos. Then at 5 AM this morning,
Bloomberg News reported that the US and China were edging closer to a trade
deal citing “people familiar with the talks.”
The Futures quickly rallied from overnight losses on the report. I don’t know about you, but all this market
manipulation around the so-called Phase 1 deal has become absolutely ridiculous.
Technically speaking, the short-term index trends broke
yesterday, but the longer-term bullish trends remain intact as bulls defended
key price action supports. Although
yesterday’s price action was quite bearish, the pullback may, in fact, open the
door to opportunity, so stay focused on price for clues. As a result of the Bloomberg report, the futures
point to a gap up open in the Dow of more than 100 points ahead of earnings and
economic reports. At 10 AM Eastern today,
impeachment hearings will resume providing a little distraction and drama to
the day.
A miss on US Manufacturing and concerns of a US/China trade deal delay inspired the bears and triggered a wave of profit-taking yesterday. Threats of a possible 100% tariff against France in response to there new digital tax aimed at American companies as well as possible steel and aluminum tariffs for Argentina and Brazil added more pressure to the selloff. This morning the President raised concerns that the US/China trade agreement may not happen until after the 2020 election has futures pointing to more losses this morning.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight, with
Australia sinking more than 2%. Across
the pond Euro Zone indexes are mostly lower after the President’s comments on the
US/China trade delay. US Futures point
to a gap down open of about 100 Dow points following though after yesterday pop
and drop pattern leaving behind bearish engulfing candle patterns and lifting
the fear level in the VIX substantially.
Keep in mind that a pullback in a bullish trend may ultimately prove to
be a buying opportunity if the bulls prove strong enough to defend. So stay focused on the price for clues.
On the Calendar
On the Tuesday Economic Calendar, we have 20 companies reporting
quarterly results. Notable reports
include AZO, BMO, CONN, LE, MRVL, CRM, WDAY, and ZS.
Action Plan
The President’s trip abroad as proved to be quite eventful. After the passage of a digital tax in France targeting US companies, he has threatened new tariffs as much a 100% in retaliation. He also said steel and aluminum tariffs for Argentina and Brazil might be in play very soon. This morning the President suggested it might be better to wait until after the 2020 election to complete a trade deal with China sending the US Futures market sharply lower. All the while impeachment hearings resume on Wednesday here in the US while the President remains abroad scheduled to meet with the Queen.
Futures that had been modestly bullish most of the night now
appear to threaten a gap down this morning following through after Monday’s selloff. While the selling yesterday was worrisome, leaving
behind bearish engulfing candles, price supports, and overall trade largely
held up to the attack. However, follow-through
selling today may well create some technical damage to the index charts. The VIX closed the day just below a 15 handle
as fear quickly accelerated after the pop and drop day that energized the bears,
triggering a wave of profit-taking as trader scrambled to protect profits.
After a bearish short session on Friday, the bulls are trying to spark a rally this morning ahead of the PMI and ISM manufacturing reports. According to reports, the US consumer showed their confidence with an increase of 20% in Black Friday sales and an expectation that Cyber Monday could hit new record spending levels. That’s good for the economy but may prove to problematic for the market today with low volume as distracted traders search for online deals.
Asian markets were green across the board overnight fueled on better than expected Chinese manufacturing numbers. Unfortunately, the European markets are flat with mixed results as their manufacturing once again shrink. US Futures have pulled back from overnight highs as we wait on US Mfg reports at 9:45 and 10:00 AM Eastern. With Dec. 15th tariffs quickly approaching and China threatening retaliation for the bill supporting a Democratic Hong Kong, the path forward may have some new obstacles to overcome. As always, stay focused on price action for clues.
On the Calendar
On the Monday Earnings Calendar, we have a light day with
just 15 companies reporting as trading resumes after the Holiday. There are no particularly notable reports
today.
Action Plan
The market reacted negatively in the low volume, short
session, Friday after the President signed the bill supporting the Hong Kong
protesters. The December 15th
tariffs now come into focus as trade negotiations stall, and China threatens retaliation. On a positive note, holiday deal shoppers
were out in force with Black Friday sales up 20% according to reports. Retail is expecting today, Cyber Monday, to
set new sales records as consumers show signs of ramping up their holiday
online shopping.
Positive Chinese manufacturing data helped to boost overnight
markets, but Euro Zone manufacturing activity once again declined tempering
this morning’s bullishness. This morning
at 9:45 and 10:00, we will hear find out how US Manufacturing measures up with
the PMI & ISM reports. Consensus
estimates look favorable. Don’t be
surprised if volume quickly declines after the morning rush with traders extending
holiday vacations and distractions from Cyber Monday shopping.
The President’s positive comments on the Phase 1 trade
agreement has once again inspired the bulls to continue to reach out for new
highs. The earnings miss by DE has
dampened the overnight bullishness, but with a big morning of market-moving
economic reports that are expected to be positive according to consensus, all
signs point higher. Typically, after the
morning rush of activity, the volume will quickly diminish as traders set-out
to begin their holiday celebrations. Plan
accordingly.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher with high hopes
news of a completed trade deal will be forthcoming. European are green across the board this morning
in response to the favorable trade comments by President Trump. US Futures point to modest gains at the open after
setting new records for the 10th time this month.
On the Calendar
On the pre-holiday Earnings Calendar, we have 21 companies
reporting quarterly results. Notable
reports include DE & DAKT, both reporting before the bell today.
Action Plan
President Trump has once again inspired the market this morning
suggesting they are very close to completing the Phase 1 trade deal. However, he also said they want to see a
democratic outcome in Hong Kong, which many see as a major obstacle to Chinese support. Yesterday, we saw record highs for the 10th
time in the last 30 days. Clearly, the
bulls are in control, and the trend remains very strong.
Although we have a rather light day on the earnings calendar
we have a very busy morning on the economic calendar with several potential
market-moving reports. The consensus
estimates of these reports are all positive, so only a major surprise seems capable
of derailing this relentless bull. Keep
in mind that volume is likely to decline very quickly after the morning rush as
traders head out for their holiday plans.
Although the market is open for short a session on Friday, the HRC and
RWO trading rooms will remain closed until Monday Dec. 2nd. I wish you all a very Happy Thanksgiving!
With the bulls inspired by Hong Kong election results, renewed
trade hopes, and a huge day merger news made setting new record highs in the DIA,
SPY,and QQQ look easy as they quickly recovered last week’s pullback. Today, the attention will likely shift to earnings
and economic reports to find inspiration.
After such a big move yesterday and heading toward a major holiday. It
will be interesting to see if bulls can find the energy to continue their relentless
march higher.
Asian markets closed mixed but modestly higher with Alibaba
making a huge splash in Hong Kong markets.
European markets are treading cautiously with mixed results as they
continue to monitor US/China trade news.
US Futures are rather subdued this morning ahead of earnings reports and
several potential market-moving economic reports. With markets at new record highs consider
your risk carefully as the holiday shutdown approaches.
On the Calendar
On the Tuesday Earnings Calendar nearly 50 companies
reporting results. Notable reports
include BBY, ADSK, BNS, BOX, CHS, CBRL, DELL, DKS, DLTR, EV, GES, HRL, HPQ,
MOV, VEEV, and VMW.
Action Plan
Monday became on the biggest merger days in history, providing
additional energy to an already bullish sentiment setting new records in the
DIA, SPY, and QQQ in the process. T2122
suggests this bull run still has some upside potential but could soon reach a
short-term overbought condition if the bulls continue to find inspiration to
rally. Earnings reports could provide
that inspiration, or perhaps it will be the New Home Sales and Consumer
Confidence reports at 10:00 AM Eastern.
One thing for sure is that the bulls remain firmly in control of a trend
that shows no price action clues of ending at this point.
Futures markets seem much more subdued this morning, perhaps
needed a little rest after such a big effort yesterday. It is also possible with the Holiday looming
and the nasty weather conditions moving across the country that traders will
try and escape early. Don’t be too
surprised if volumes begin to decline quickly with price action becoming very
light and choppy after the morning rush Wednesday. As we push new market highs, plan your risk carefully
heading into the holiday.
The pendulum of the Phase 1 deal that has swing somewhat
bearish heading into the weekend has this morning swing back to the bullish
side, helping to inspire a Monday morning gap.
The bulls got an early start after news that pro-democracy candidates
won big in Hong Kong. The pullback last
week that held trading sets up a great opportunity if the bulls can remain inspired
to attack all-time market highs as we head into the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Asian markets rallied substantially overnight in reaction to
Hong Kong election results. European
markets are also green across the board this morning on renewed US-China trade
hopes. US Futures opened bullishly and
remained strong throughout the night, currently pointing to gap up opens across
all indexes. Perhaps Santa can begin his
run early this year fueled by strong consumer sentiment.
On the Calendar
On the Monday earnings calendar we have 31 companies
stepping up to report. Notable reports
include PANW, A, AMBA, HPE, NTNX, & PVH.
Action Plan
Trade uncertainty dimmed Friday bullishness, but they have
spun the story once again, and this morning, the bulls are pushing for a higher
open. Pro-democracy candidates won big
in the elections on Sunday in Hong Kong with a record voter turnout. A major step for the people of Hong Kong but
they still have an uphill fight with the Beijing control of top
leadership.
With the short holiday week, we still have several notable
earnings reports Monday & Tuesday and a busy economic calendar through Wednesday. However, expect volumes to decline quickly by
mid-week and remain relatively low until Dec. 3rd as traders extend
their Thanksgiving vacations. That being
said the market indexes appear setup to attack new record highs as long as sentiment
on the Phase 1 agreement remains positive.
Last week’s strong consumer reading suggests Santa could have a nice run
this year.
Although we have had 3-days of pullback in the indexes, the VIX shows little to no fear, and so far the indexes has suffered no discernible technical damage. According to reports, the likelihood of a completed Phase 1 trade deal before the scheduled December 15th tariff increase has diminished. As we head into the uncertainty of the weekend and the coming holiday, it may be difficult for the bulls to find much inspiration. However, a consolidation at this level would be productive and bullish as we wait for some political clarity.
Asian markets closed mixed overnight as trade uncertainty
weighed on investor’s minds. Across the
pond, European markets are bullish following positive Euro data. US Futures point toward a modestly bullish
open ahead of Consumer Sentiment that consensus expects to increase slightly at
10 AM Eastern. Plan your risk carefully
as we head into the weekend.
On the Calendar
On the last day of trading this week, we have just 15 companies
reporting earnings. Notable reports
include BKE, FL, HIBB, and SJM.
Action Plan
During the impeachment hearings, the congress could not be
bothered to pass a federal budget but did set aside enough time to kick the can
down the road with another stopgap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown. It now looks as if there will not be a Phase
1 trade agreement before the scheduled December 15th tariffs
increases. China said in a report that they
want a trade deal but are not afraid to fight.
Impeachment hearings have not progressed into Russian election meddling as
the political drama extends.
With a light day of earnings and economic reports the US Futures
are trying to put on a brave face and break the 3-day pullback as we head into
the weekend. With not many places to
find inspiration and trade up in the air it may be difficult for the bulls to
gain much traction. However, if they can
prevent additional selling and slip the indexes into a consolidation I believe
that would be a win keeping the market trends bullish. Although we pulled back there has been on
technical damage, and this rest appears to very constructive thus far. According to the VIX, fear of a selloff remains
very low as we head into the weekend.
The possible delay of the Phase 1 trade deal and the
questions about that means for the December 15th tariff increases
brought out the bear yesterday. However,
by the end of the day the technicals of the index charts took little to no
damage. Even the VIX by the end of the
day showed little to no fear growing in the overall market. That being said, the market is obviously
quite sensitive to the notion of increased tariffs by the end of year, and it
will likely continue to be a driver of market sentiment requiring traders to remain
nimble.
Asian markets closed in the red across the board in reaction
the possible trade deal delay. This
morning European markets are lower across the board as the concern of Hong Kong
bill passed by Congress could affect trade relations going forward as it heads
to the President’s desk for signature.
US Futures are flat to slightly bearish ahead earnings and economic
calendar reports.
On the Calendar
On Thursday’s Economic Calendar, we have 46 companies reporting
earnings. Notable reports include JACK,
LB, LXB, NTES, and QIWI.
Action Plan
A story suggesting there would not be a Phase 1 deal this
year brought out the bears yesterday.
The major concern was not the Phase 1 deal; it’s the question as to what
happens with the tariffs scheduled to increase December 15? Clearly and increase before the end of the
year could have serious impacts on a market that has rallied on the optimism of
a partial deal. Though we have a few
earnings reports today, it’s unlikely the market will see much impact from their
results; instead, the market may focus on the economic calendar news with
Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Survey, and Existing Home Sales.
Although yesterday selling was a concern, the technicals of
the index charts took very little damage yesterday. Personally, I think the pullback to at this
point was good to relieve the relentless bullish pressure. In fact, this pause in the rally could setup new
buy opportunities assuming we can get some clarification on the Phase 1 negotiations
and December 15th tariffs.
Stay on your toes as this political football continues gets kicked about
along with market sentiment.
Some nasty retail earnings and tough talk raise concerns about the so-called Phase 1 trade deal bring a needed pause in the bull run. Even bulls need a little rest from time to time, and this little pullback may prove to be very productive as long as the overall index trends hold. Better earnings results out from TGT and LOW have already recovered some the overnight losses in the futures market now suggesting a modest gap lower at the open.
Overnight Asian markets closed the day bearish across the
board on growing trade tensions. European markets are also reacting lower this morning,
seeing red across the board. US Futures
have lifted overnight lows but continue to point to modest declines ahead of
more impeachment hearings and the FOMC minutes due out at 2 PM Eastern today.
On the Calendar
On the hump day Earnings Calendar, we have more than 50
companies reporting today. Notable
reports include LOW, TGT, JACK, LB, LZB, NTES, and QIWI.
Action Plan
Yesterday’s gap up opens eventually turned into a pop and
drop pattern with the Dow closing the day with a bearish engulfing candle. However, the SPY and QQQ found enough buyers
by the end of the day, and the price action finished the day with just a little
rest from breaking daily records. It
would seem tensions between the US and China have once again flared with new tariffs
threatened as part of the rhetoric. Today
the impeachment show continues on the capital hill while the market waits for
the FOMC minutes at 2 PM Eastern.
Even with the slight bearishness of yesterday index trends
remain intact while the VIX continues to register little to no fear of in the market. Although the futures are under slight
pressure this morning, I see this pullback as nothing more than a rest so
far. Of course, that could quickly
change if the Phase 1 proposal falls apart, but my guess is that’s not likely at
least for now. We needed a little rest,
and as long as the overall trends hold, this pullback may well prove to be nothing
more than a pause in an otherwise very bullish trend. Futures point to modest gap down at the open,
but be very careful chasing the open down as many will see this as an opportunity
to buy. As always, wait for proof of
follow-through!
While the bulls seemed to struggle to find inspiration in
the morning session, there was a constant and persistent push in the Dow futures,
which led the indexes throughout the entire day, ultimately setting new record
highs. Oddly, even so-called safe-haven sectors
are being swept up in this relentless bull run.
A rare thing to see, so enjoy it.
How long this can last is anyone’s guess, so don’t get caught up in the
emotion of will bullishness stay focused on price action, plan carefully, and
remember to take profits along the way!
While trouble in Hong Kong continues to get more violent
Asian markets managed to close mostly higher though China said yesterday they
were pessimistic about a trade deal. European
stocks joined the US markets in bullishness setting 4-year highs and are green
across the board this morning. US
futures pared gains slightly after HD missed on sales expectations but still
point to new record highs ahead of the Housing Starts number at 8:30 AM
Eastern.
On the Calendar
On today’s Earnings Calendar we have just over 60 companies
reporting. Notable reports include HD,
JKS, KSS, MDT, TJX, and URBN.
Action Plan
Pimco predicts the US and China will sign a Phase 1 trade
deal before Christmas causes the futures to leap higher. However, after HD missed on sales expectations,
futures have softened but continue to point to another record high open. Impeachment hearings resume this morning, and
according to reports, the President is considering the idea of testifying in
his own defense. Expect the political
drama to attract a good deal of attention, but it’s unclear if the bulls will waver
in their march higher even if the news is bad.
Although the markets seemed to lack momentum yesterday, the
constant push in the futures market finally broke the log jam setting new
record highs for the day. It’s
interesting to note value stocks and consumer defensive stocks are moving up in
concert with growth and high beta stocks, which is quite odd. Relentless bullishness seems to be the best
description of the current market, and it doesn’t seem to matter what their
buying just buy something. How long this
can last is anyone’s guess, but enjoy it because it’s not often such an event
occurs. As always keep your emotions in check,
stay focused on price remembering how quickly sentiment can shift.
