Although we have more than 350 companies reporting, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern today.  In anticipation of a rate cut, the Dow and SP-500 have rallied more than 10% since the discussion began in early June.  One has to wonder after such a huge anticipation run what might occur if the FOMC disappoints the market.  One thing for sure is that the entire world is watching and we should expect considerable volatility as a result.  Trade negotiations with China ended very sharply after just half a day of conversation, but that’s likely to get lost in the shadow of the FOMC today.

Overnight, Asian market closed in the red across the board, but European markets trade mixed, however, mostly higher ahead of the FOMC decision.  US Futures are pointing to a bullish open fueled by the earnings that have come in largely better than expected this quarter.  Expect a flurry of price volatility during the morning rush as the market reacts to a big round of earnings reports but don’t be surprised if that quickly fades into choppy light action as we wait for the Fed.  Fasten your seat-belt and prepare for a wild news-driven day.

On the Calendar

On the Wednesday Earnings calendar, we reach the half-way point for this season.  We have more than 350 companies stepping up to report.  Among the notable today are, ABC, mt, ADM, AVP, CC, CI, CLX, ED, CROC, DVA, DISH, DNKN, DD, ETSY, EXC, FSLR, GM, GPRO, HBI, HFC, IRM, K, LM, NNN, PINS, RMAX, RDFN, SHOP, SQ, STOR, X, VZ, W, WU, WING, WYNN, XYL, YETI, and YUM.

Action Plan

After a choppy day of price action that left the DIA, SPY, and QQQ slightly lower on the day the big round of earnings after the bell seems to have lifted the spirit fo the bulls this morning.  AAPL beat analysts estimates and guided positively forward although iPhone sales slumped.  Today at 2 PM Eastern we will finally get the decision from the FOMC on interest rates.  However, before that occurs, we will get word on the ADP Employment numbers, Employment Cost Index, and the Petroleum Statis Report along with a very large group of earnings reports.

It’s going to be a very busy day of data, but as of now, the Futures are pointing to a bullish open.  Expect volatility to during the morning rush as trader react to earnings reports but don’t be surprised if price action becomes very light and choppy leading into the rate decision.  There has been so much news spin around this rate decision that the entire world is waiting in anticipation so expect an explosion of the volatility after the release and during the Chairmans press conference.  Buckle up it may prove to be a very bumpy ride today.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

As the market waits for the FOMC rate decision, fed fund futures seem to display wavering confidence on the possible outcome.  Currently, it suggests a 73% chance of a 25 basis cut with a 50 basis cut slipping back to just 27%.  Clouding the water just a bit more a CNBC story suggests there could be up to 3 members voting against a rate cut due to stronger than expected economic indicators.  One thing for sure all we can do as traders is to wait for their decision and manage the price volatility it creates the best we can or stand aside.

Asian markets saw green across the board at the close of trading last night after the Bank of Japan decided to hold rates steady.  European, markets are currently mixed but mostly lower as they deal with some disappointing earnings results this morning.  US Futures currently point to a slightly bearish open this morning ahead of a big round of earnings reports and a busy economic calendar.  With another round of market-moving reports after the bell, today prepare for the possibility of a substantial gap Wednesday morning.

On the Calander

On the Tuesday Earnings Calendar, we have more than 290 companies expected to report results today.  Some of the notable earnings include, AAPL, AMD, AOS, AKAM, MO, ARCC, BIDU, BYD, CINF, COP, GLW, CMI, DLR, DHI, ETN, ECL, EA, LLY, EXR, FEYE, GILD, GRUB, IR, LDOS, MA, MRK, MDLZ, OKE, PAYC, PFE, PG, PAS, RL, SIRI, SNE, STAG, UAA, YUM, and XRX. 

Action Plan

Another very big day of earnings and economic data for the market to digest today as we wait for the FOMC rate decision Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern.  Today there is even more uncertainty about what the Fed might do with a story released on CNBC that there could be as many as three members voting in decent of cutting rates.  Fed fund futures now suggest a 73% chance of a 25 basis point cut and just a 27% chance of a 50 basis rate reduction. 

Futures currently suggest a slightly bearish open as earnings begin to roll out and ahead of the Personal Income, S&P Corelogic, Consumer Confidence, and Pending Home Sales economic reports.  After the bell today we have some big reports from the likes of AAPL, AMD, and many other possible market-moving events.  As a result, there is a possibility of a substantial market gap Wednesday morning.  Plan your risk carefully and expect the challenging price volatility to continue.  Although we saw a small dose of selling pressure yesterday morning, index trends remain bullish.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

If I had to pick one word to describe this week of trading, it would be anticipation.  With the FOMC expected to cut rates on Wednesday.   The question is, will it be enough after a 10% market rally in anticipation of an aggressive FOMC move?  The market will also have to focus on over 1200 earnings reports this week and the resumption of US/China trade negotiations.  If that’s not enough for the market to digest, let’s toss in a very busy week of market-moving economic reports such as the Friday Employment Situation number to continue to stir the volatility.

During the night, Asian markets closed modestly lower across the board ahead of the pending trade talks.  This morning European markets are also pensive currently trading mixed but mostly lower.  US Futures are also starting the day timidly, pointing to flat open.  Although the index trends are bullish and new record highs were made on Friday this morning’s uncertainty is palpable.  I’m expecting price action this week to challenge even the most experienced traders.  Plan your risk carefully.

On the Calendar

We have a huge number of earnings this week with more than 120 companies reporting today.  Notable reports include AKS, BAH, BTND, CTB, TACO, RE, ILMN, LEG, NBR, SNY, TXRH, RIG, and VNO.

Action Plan

This week has the potential of being a very challenging trading week full of uncertainty and price volatility.  We have more than 1200 companies expected to report this week, a busy economic calendar that includes the FOMC rate decision Wednesday afternoon as well as the Employment Situation Report Friday, and for good measure, let’s toss in the resumption of China Trade talks.  With the SP-500 at new record highs and up more than 10% in just the last 2-months, there is a lot at stake.

The NASDAQ also closing at new record highs on Friday index trends are bullish, and there is very little fear with the VIX hovering just above 12.  As I write this report, US Futures are flat ahead of today’s earnings reports, and its possible trading could remain choppy and indecisive until the FOMC decision where is largely expected a rate cut is forthcoming.  The question is, will it be enough to please the market after running up so hard in anticipation?  I expect this to be a very challenging week, even for every experienced trader’s.  

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A better than expected Durable Goods number yesterday elevated concerns that the FOMC might be less aggressive or even skip cutting rates at their meeting next week.  Adding to the concern, the ECB signaled a future rate cut, but the market largely expected the cut to occur yesterday.  The better than expected company earnings results this quarter would seem to confirm the overall strength of the US economy.  Keep an eye on the results the GDP number at 8:30 AM, as it’s results could be a critical factor to sway the FOMC for or against a rate cut next week.

Asian markets struggled overnight,  closing mostly lower due to worries of a less aggressive Fed.  However, European markets don’t seem to share the same concern seeing green across the board this morning.  US Futures point to a bullish open as better than expected earnings continue to inspire the bulls ahead of the GDP number.  With a huge number of earnings, next week plan your risk carefully heading into the weekend and plan for the challenging price volatility to continue.

On the Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we get a little break with just over 80 companies reporting.  However, next week earnings ramp up again with more than 1000 companies expected to report.  Notable earnings today include but are not limited to ABBV, COG, CHTR, CL, GT, MCD, PSX, TWTR, WY, WETF, and YNDX.

Action Plan

Another good round of earnings after the bell looks to energize the bulls even as the strong, durable goods numbers raises concerns about Fed cuts.  The ECB signaled a coming rate cut but also seemed to surprise markets that were largely expecting a cut yesterday.  The GDP number at 8:30 AM Eastern could help to restore rate cut hopes if it comes in lower than expected.  However, if the number were to come in, strong markets could become worried that the FOMC will also skip cutting rates this month.  Certainly, current economic indicators have been strong, and the better than expected earnings results would seem to confirm that strength.

Although yesterday’s price action snapped a 3-day rally, index trends remain bullish.  US Futures have remained bullish all night and have only strengthened this morning ahead of earnings and the very important GDP number.  With both Iran and North Korea raising the stakes for military confrontation, there is some uncertainty as we head into the weekend so plan your risk carefully.  Challenging price volatility is likely to continue today and stick with us all next week, so remember to consider taking some profits to the bank.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Inspired by better than expected earnings results, the bulls continue to march higher with record-breaking results in the SPY and QQQ.  Even the beleaguered IWM got into the game yesterday breaking through a downtrend that began in October of last year.  The huge loss from BA and disappointing results out of CAT has moved the overall Dow earnings results into the negative column this quarter, but surprisingly, the index trend remains bullish.

We have a very big day of earnings and economic reports so expect price action volatility to continue.  With the VIX close to dipping to an 11 handle, the market appears to have no fear, but that always raises the question of complacency.  Remain bullish but keep an eye on the VIX watching for clues if the trend begins to shift.  Asian markets closed with modest gains overnight, and European markets trade mixed ahead of the ECB rate decision.  US Futures once again point to a bullish as earnings roll out and ahead of economic reports.

On the Calendar

On the Thursday Earnings Calendar, we will have the biggest day of reports this week with more than 325 companies reporting.  Among the notable reports are, AMZN, BUD, MMM, ABB, AFL, ALK, GOOGL, AAL, AZN, BMY, CELG, CX, CMCSA, FSLR, HSY, HBAN, INTC, IP, IVZ, TREE, MAT, MGM, NOK, PBR, RCL, LUV, SBUX, TMUS, UN, VLO, WM, WWE, WH, XRX & AUY.

Action Plan

Today we face the biggest day of news events this week to follow yesterdays record-breaking SPY and QQQ bull run.  Even IWM which has stubbornly languished in a downtrend suddenly found inspiration to rally yesterday among the better than expected earnings.  After accepting a 5 Billion dollar fine for privacy violations, FB beat analysts earnings estimates lifting the stock in aftermarket trading.  The Dow, on the other hand, suffered damage after the huge loss reported by BA that moved the entire index into the negative overall earnings growth column for this quarter.

We should expect some volatility in price action with over 325 companies reporting today as well as Durable Goods Order, International Trade in Goods and the weekly Jobless Claims numbers at 8:30 AM Eastern.  Trends remain bullish in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ and the VIX is showing so little fear it may reach an 11 handle today raising the question of complacency.  However, with the bulls firmly in control and strong upward trends, I will happily continue to follow the price up and banking gains along the way.  Go bulls.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Modestly better than expected earnings results and a 2-year debt ceiling agreement between the Whitehouse and Congress have the US indicating a bullish open ahead of a big day of reports.  After a mostly choppy price action day, the bull finally overwhelmed the bears as they defended trends and key supports.  Of course with nearly 140 companies on deck to report and the Existing Home Sales number a 10:00 AM Eastern a lot could change by the open but so far it would appear the bulls have the upper hand.

Asian markets responded bullishly overnight on the better than expected earnings results closing in the green across the board.  European markets are also bullish this morning as they welcome a new Prime Minister ( Boris Johnson ) and a government reorganization that may or may not lead to Brexit deal.  As a result, all four major indexes indicate a bullish open.  Expect price action volatility to expand as the number of earnings reports ramp-up this week.

On the Calendar

On the Tuesday Earnings Calendar, we have about 140 companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include AN, AVY, BIIB, CNI, CNC, CMG, CB, KO, DFS, FITB, FE, HAS, IRBT, JBLU, KEY, KMB, LMT, PNR, PHM, DGX, SHW, SNAP, SWK, TXN, TRV, UBS, UTX & V.

Action Plan

After a mostly choppy price action day, the bulls finally got it together and appeared to gain the upper hand by the close.  The QQQ demonstrated the tenacity of the bulls recovering and defending a key support and ultimately maintaining the bullish trend in the DIA, SPY as well.  Earnings after the bell appeared to come in slightly better than expected and the announcement of a Whitehouse and Congressional 2-year debt ceiling deal also lifted spirits.

Consequently, US Futures are pointing to a higher open this morning ahead of nearly 140 earnings reports that obviously could improve or dampen the actual open depending on the reaction of the results.  At 10:00 AM Eastern we will get the latest reading on Existing Home Sales which can move the market and the only such report on the economic calendar with the power to do so today.  I’m expecting volatility to expand the rest of the week as the number of earnings reports expands.  Challenging price is likely with the possibility of substantial morning opening gaps that could include overnight reversals.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Friday’s price action certainly raised a lot of concerns, but the selling stopped short of breaking the current up-trends in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ leaving behind a palpable earnings uncertainty.  Of course, the growing tensions with Iran and the uncertainty of US/China trade negotiations and huge earnings calendar this week only add to the uncertain path ahead.  We should expect and prepare for the possibility that two-sided very challenging price action will continue in the days ahead.

Asian markets struggled overnight closing in the red across the board.  However, European markets are currently trading with modest gains across its 3-major indexes this morning.  US Futures are also projecting modest gains at the open as earnings continue to roll out.  There is little on the Economic Calendar for the market to react on this morning, so it’s all about the quality of the earnings reports and how they are perceived by the market this morning.  With so many big reports this week we should plan for the possibility of large overnight gaps and reversals and should plan our risk accordingly.

On the Calendar

On the Monday Earnings Calendar, we have 70 companies reporting in a week where the number of earnings ramp up substantially.  Among the notable are ACC, CALM, GNC, HAL, LII, PETS, STLD, AMTD, WHR, and ZION.

Action Plan

No doubt about it last Friday was a rough day as selling increased into the close as traders took profits ahead of an uncertain weekend.  Tensions with Iran continued to grow after Friday’s capture of a British oil tanker and now the claims they have claimed they have captured and detained about a dozen individuals they accuse as US spies.  However, the Friday selling stopped short of breaking the current uptrends in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  Although the price patterns left behind warrant an extra measure of caution keep in mind, there must be a downside follow-through breaking trends to indicate bearishness.

This morning futures are currently pointing to bullish open ahead of the 70 or so earnings reports expected today.  We should expect the rather challenging volatility to continue and the possibility it could ramp up with about 800 earnings reports, including three-quarters of the so-called FANG companies.  Large overnight gaps are possible as these big techs report so carefully plan your risk.  So far, the earings price action has been very choppy and two-sided, so it may be wise to avoid becoming over-extended in your holding with a single directional bias.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

After a concerning morning selloff during the morning session, the bulls stepped up right on queue defending current up-trends and holding key support levels with a nice afternoon rally.  After the bell, yesterday MSFT’s strong earnings report also seems to have at least temporarily lifted some trade war fueled tech earning concerns. 

FOMC members Willimas & Clarida spurred speculation of a more aggressive interest rate cut after their comments late Thursday.  As a result, Asian markets closed decidedly bullish seeing green across the board.  However, European markets are mixed but mostly slightly lower this morning after the Fed clarifies and tones down the rate cut rhetoric.  Consequently, US Futures point to modestly bullish open as earnings reports roll in and ahead of the Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM Eastern.  With tensions once again on the rise after the US downing of an Iranian drone carefully consider the risk you carry into the weekend.

On the Calendar

On Friday’s Earnings Calendar we have a slightly lighter day with 39 companies reporting.  Notable reports today include BLK, CLF, KSU, MAN, NVR, SLB, STT, and SYF.

Action Plan

Yesterday’s strong earnings report from MSFT may go a long way to soothing traders concerns of a trade war influenced tech slow down at least for today.  Next week we jump headlong into earnings with more than 800 companies expected to report with big tech being a major focus.  There is renewed hope of a bigger rate cut this morning after a late afternoon speech’s by FOMC members Williams & Clarida spurred speculation of a more aggressive Fed.  If that is the case, with such strong current economic indicators, it will leave very little firepower for the Fed if an economic crisis really does arrive. 

Technically speaking the afternoon rally yesterday seemed to come at just the right time holding current trends and key support levels in the indexes.  Toss in a good MSFT report, and a warm and fuzzy feeling of possible rate cuts the US Futures are suggesting a modest rally at the open, and I would not be surprised if overnight futures highs get tested sometime during today’s session.  We have Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM Eastern that is expected to remain strong and more Fed speak to round out this week’s economic calendar. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

With the smell of fresh blood in the air after the disappointing results, NFLX reported yesterday the nearly forgotten bears are once again on the prowl.  NFLX has warned they would miss expectations and it makes you wonder what might lay ahead with the many other company warnings that were issued.  Technically speaking the bullish trends in the DIA, SPY and QQQ remain intact, but we should expect price action to become much more volatile as earnings reports increase over the next couple weeks.

Asian markets closed lower across the board overnight, reacting to earnings and growing trade war tensions.  European markets are currently mixed but mostly lower, citing trade uncertainty and tech earnings concerns.  US Futures have recovered significantly from overnight lows ahead of the 8:30 AM eastern Jobless Claims report and the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey which both have the potential of moving the market.  I would expect challenging price action in weeks ahead, so plan your risk carefully.

On the Calendar

On the Thursday Earnings calendar, we have 90 companies stepping up to report quarterly results.  Among the notable reports ALLY, BBT, COF, CHWY, DHR, DOV, ETFC, GPC, HON, ISRG, MTB, MS, MSFT, NVS, NUE, PM, PPG, SKX, SWKS, STI, TSM, UNP, and UNH.

Action Plan

NFLX earnings disappointed traders after the bell yesterday reporting a significant decline in domestic subscribers.  Shares of the streaming service are indicated to open nearly 40 points lower this morning pulling the QQQ down to test breakout support levels.  It may also elevate the concerns of all the other tech companies that have warned about missing expectations this season.  Perhaps an even more damaging report came for CSX yesterday sending the railroad sharply lower raising significant concerns for the overall transport sector.

With another big round of earnings reports this morning and the tech giant MSFT reporting after the bell, we should expect an increase in volatility.  As of the close of yesterday overall trends of the DIA, SPY and QQQ remain bullish, but with the scent of blood in the air, hungry bears will be on the prowl.  As I write this, the bulls are trying to put on a brave face with the futures recovering significantly from overnight lows and currently suggesting modestly bearish open.  I would not be at all surprised to see a retest of the overnight lows depending on the morning earnings results and the 8:30 AM Economic Calendar reports. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug