Bulls Not Worried Pre-Payrolls

Another gap higher Thursday was met with a roller coaster that ended up selling back down in to the gap.  This gave us high-wick indecisive candles.  The SPY closed up 1.21%, the DIA up 0.87%, and the QQQ up 1.29%.  VXX was down correspondingly to 37.47 while T2122 remains in the mid-range at 64.84.  The 10-year bond yield was up to close at 0.643% and Oil (WTI) held ground, closing at $23.79/barrel.

Like watching a car wreck that’s about to happen, markets have seemed to be waiting on this morning’s jobs report.  At the same time, we know it’s going to be terrible and the bulls have long ago decided that the worst is past us. 

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,936,270 confirmed cases and 271,180 deaths.  Opening continues to be the lead story around the world in spite of concerning signs like a 6th straight day of record-high cases in Russia, a record death toll in Mexico, a death toll uptick in Spain, and new outbreaks in places like South Korean nightclubs.  Among the openings were school openings in France and Norway, travel restriction easing in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore. 

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In the US, we have 1,292,879 confirmed cases and 76, 429 deaths.  The important US virus-related news seems to be public’s less than stellar adherence to guidelines (or even of showing civility). Several incidents of shootings and physical attacks on people trying to enforce guidelines have made news and there has been a mass disregard for distancing or mask usage in many parts of the country.  This comes as more crowded venues (like factories, malls, etc.) open every day.  This just points to how hard it will be to control spread or lock down again if needed to contain the spread.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green. In Europe, the same is true with the exception of Russia so far today.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing to a one percent gap higher at the open as traders seems to be expecting no bad shock from the jobs number. 

The major economic news for Friday includes Apr Avg. Hourly Earnings, Apr Nonfarm Payrolls, Apr Participation Rate, and Apr Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  The earnings are limited to ATH, AXL, BLMN, BR, EXC, GLP, IEP, KIM, LEA, NBL, PBF, PNW, PPL, SABR, TEN, VTR, and XRAY all before the open.

The bulls seem to have decided the worst is behind us.  However, they are running low on follow-through steam lately.  Fortunately for them, the bears have no energy either.  The payroll report and more importantly market reaction will call the tune today.  Just remember that volatility remains a constant companion for traders.  So, all we can do is focus on the short-term chart in front of us.  Remain cautious about longer-term swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain. Finally, remember it's payday..take profits where and when you can.   

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: no trade ideas for Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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