Waiting on an Elusive Deal

Markets gapped higher Wednesday on anonymous reports the Chinese are open to a partial trade deal – grain purchases for tariff suspension.  While the gap was impressive, the day ended as nothing but a Doji (indecisive), if up almost 1% on the S&P and QQQ.  So, the downtrend remains in place and taken together, the last two days are just more of the sideways chop at the level of the large gap down Open Tuesday.

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On today’s economic calendar we see Consumer Inflation at 8:30am.  However, the big news is the resumption of US-China Trade talks.  Unfortunately, overnight the Chinese media was reporting “trade talks have made no progress” and "high-level talks will only last one day" (instead of two as was planned). 

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Overnight, Asian and European markets were all mixed (on dueling rumors and expectations about the now-shortened trade meeting).  And as of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were all pointing to a small open lower (about 0.2 - 0.3%) on the overnight news of trade deal failings.

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The bottom line remains that it is very hard to swing trade in the recent markets successfully.  Day or Position trading look much better in this sort of volatile and choppy market.  Until we start getting less "gaps and whiplash" and more "trend and follow-through" be very cautious.  Do not confuse one candle as trading wisdom...or a new trend. That all said, downtrend remains in control for now.  

Ed

For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. Short – FSLR, WES, LSCC, LDOS, RDUS, KLAC, EL  Long – DOCU, CX, EQR, SYY, AMH, ES, COST, CYH Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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