New China Hopes

Markets continued to rest Wednesday, after a mid-day scare as it was announced that the supposed November signing of a phase-one partial trade deal with China has slipped until December (maybe) and would be signed some (undetermined) place in Europe.  (This follows on the previous day’s reports that China is pushing for tariff roll-backs, not just the lack of new tariffs, before they sign a phase-one deal.)  That revelation caused a temporary drop in markets at 11:45 am, but we recovered by day end.

After-hours, ANSS, ATO, DVN, FISV, FLT, FOXA, HOLX, MRO, NKTR, and QCOM all reported beats.  Meanwhile, ALB, CTL, EOG, EVRG, EXPE, TRIP, and WYNN reported misses.  However, last night’s big news was an Official Chinese announcement that they have agreed with the US to simultaneously remove existing tariffs in phases and that this had been a stumbling block to the phase-one partial deal.  Futures soared on this official report.

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Thursday’s economic calendar is limited to Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and a couple more Fed speakers.  However, again earnings will likely have the most sway again as APD, ABC, CAH, CNP, DISCA, HII, JCI, NRG, NLCN, NBL, NCLH, PNW, RL, WRK, and ZTS are among those reporting before the bell.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green.  In Europe, markets are mostly green at this point.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were green, looking for about 0.40%-0.50%. Again, trade deal optimism has spread fast.

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While we’ve rested after the break to new highs, China trade deal optimism is likely to put new energy into the bulls.  Just bear in mind that earnings have been mixed the last couple days and reports say that on average future earnings forecasts have reached the lowest level of growth in years with an expected increase of +1% for next quarter.  In addition, there may well be more twists in the Trade Deal story and we still have some earnings left that may dampen moods.  So, remember to be cautious and continue to take profits and move stops.

Ed

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