Hoping for a Trade Deal

Markets had a strong day Thursday, almost exclusively on “hope” of a partial trade deal between the US and China.  The indices closed up two-thirds of a percent, right at the 50sma in the SPY and DIA.  Still, both the SPY and IWM both failed the downtrend line and that trend remains intact in all (arguably) indices except the QQQ (which broke through on Thursday).

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Friday’s economic calendar includes the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey at 10 am.  However, given all the focus for months on the Trade War, the big market mover will be the rumors, announcements, and spin placed on the meeting between President Trump and the Chinese Vice Premier.  Also keep an eye on Oil markets as Iran claims one of their tankers in the Red Sea was struck by 2 missles last night. The only earnings of note is for FAST before the bell. 

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Overnight, Asian and European markets were up strongly (apparently also on Trump’s tweet that trade negotiations were going “very, very well”).  And as of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a large gap higher (about 1.25% across the board) on that optimism for a Friday trade deal.

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The bottom line remains that it is very hard to swing trade in the recent markets successfully.  Day or Position trading look much better in this sort of volatile and choppy market.  Until we start getting less "gaps and whiplash" and more "trend and follow-through" be very cautious.  Do not confuse one candle as trading wisdom...or a new trend. That all said, downtrend remains in control for now.  

Ed

For Your Consideration: No trade ideas for Friday. Remember to lock-in profits while you can, and hedge your risks for the weekend when you can't react to news and rumors. Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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