A turbulent 3-day weekend of Easter terror attacks in Sri
Lanka and Mueller report political drama ahead of a big week of earnings report
has the futures pointing to a gap down open this morning. With several markets around the world closed
today and the likelihood that many traders and investors have extended their holiday;
there is the possibility of light and choppy price action after the morning
rush.
With about 800 companies scheduled to report earnings this
week plan for an extra dose of price volatility and don’t be surprised to large
morning gaps. The big question to be
answered is whether or not the earnings will inspire the market to new record
highs or if the analyst’s concerns of an economic slowdown come to fruition in
the company results? Though we may have
had a turbulent 3-day weekend of news the turbulence may just be beginning as
earnings season heats up. Stay focused
on price action and plan your risk carefully for the possibility of bumpy air ahead.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we have nearly 80 companies reporting
earnings today but we will have more than 300 reports on Thursday. As the 2nd quarter earnings season
heats up make sure to check reporting dates for all current holdings and those
you’re considering for a buy.
Action Plan
Easter terror attacks in Sri Lanka, Mueller report political
drama, rising oil prices, Boeing facing claims of Dreamliner Mfg. issues, and a
parked Tesla apparently blowing up are just a few of the stories popping up
during the long weekend. There are
several markets closed around the world today as Easter holidays continue. Futures are slightly under pressure this morning
pointing to a gap down of more than 50 Dow points. After the morning rush there is a possibility
of light and choppy price action as may traders and investors have likely extended
their holiday vacation.
With earnings season heating up this week we should expect
increased price action volatility and the possibility of large daily gaps. Check those earnings dates on companies you
hold or are thinking about buying and plan your risk carefully. I think the big question to be answered is will
earnings finally break resistance highs propelling the markets to new records
or will earnings point to the economic slowdown many analysts suggest. Only time will tell so stay focused on price
action for clues and respect support and resistance levels as you plan you risk
moving forward.
On this last trading day of the week the market has a full
plate of data to chew through this morning.
Not only will this be the biggest day of the 2nd quarter earnings
season so far but we also have several potential market-moving reports on the economic
calendar before the open. Then, shortly
after the open, Attorney General Bar releases the Mueller Report that’s likely
to trigger a firestorm of political spin and media speculation.
As the market digests all the morning reports it will also need
to consider the risk of the 3-day weekend ahead. I will not be at all surprised if the volume
becomes very light and choppy as we head into the afternoon as traders head out
to take full advantage of this 3-day spring getaway. Our full plate will continue next week as
earnings season ramps up with more than 700 companies expected to report. Carefully pan your risk and have a great
weekend everyone!
On the Calendar
We have 75 companies reporting earnings on this last trading
day of the week due to the Good Friday Holiday.
Notable reports, ALLY, AXP, BBT, BX, CHKP, CFG, DHR, DOV, GPC, HON,
ISRG, KEY, MAN, PM, RF, RCI, SLB, SKX, SNA, STI, SYF, TSM, TRV, UN & UNP.
Action Plan
Futures appear a bit sluggish as we head into a big of data
before and a 3-day weekend. First we the
biggest day of earnings reports so far this season and a busy economic calendar
with Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Bus. Outlook and Retail Sale all coming out at
8:30 AM Eastern. If that were not enough,
Attorney General Bar will release the Mueller Report this morning that is likely
to trigger a firestorm of political spin.
Asian markets closed in the red across the board last night and European
are currently showing mixed results after a disappointing manufacturing report.
Although US Futures have rallied from overnight lows they
are still pointing to slightly bearish open as I write the morning note. Don’t be too surprised to price action become
light and choppy after the morning hubbub as traders and investors head out
early to take full advantage of the 3-day weekend. With the market continuing to struggle against
the all-time resistance levels consider the risk carefully you carry into the
long weekend. I wish you all a great day
of trading and a wonderful Good Friday holiday weekend!
I think cautiously optimistic best describes the current
market condition and investor sentiment even though yesterday’s pop and drop price
action may have been bit disappointing. The
bullish trends in the DIA, SPY and QQQ show the overall optimism of an all-time
market high resistance test. However,
the price action is showing considerable caution as we approach high resistance
levels as investors wonder what comes next?
Can earnings continue to support current price evaluations or not?
On this 4th day of 2nd quarter earnings
results thus far are somewhat mixed so investors are is hoping clues will emerge
today that support current trends. So
with the overall market cautiously optimistic we must stay with the trend but keep
a close eye on price action as we approach resistance highs. Clearly the bulls want new market highs but the
big question is earnings continue to support these lofty levels?
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we have more than 70 companies reporting
on this the 4th day of 2nd quarter earnings. Notable reports today include, PIR, ABT, AA,
BK, BHP, CCI, ETFC, KSU, LVS, MS, PEP & USB.
Action Plan
As I write this, US Futures are modestly bullish anticipating
a fresh round of earnings and last nights report showing China’s economic growth
was better than expected. After the bell
yesterday NFLX disappointed investors but even after projecting weak forward
guidance the price bounced back substantial for early low’s. IBM is also lower this morning in reaction to
earnings that disappointed. Asian
markets closed mixed but modestly higher overall and currently European markets
show modest gains but also showing slightly mixed results.
While yesterday’s pop and drop pattern was disappointing there
was no technical damage to the index charts that continue to remain bullish. With a large group of notable earnings this
morning anything is possible by the time the market opens today. Although holding trends in the DIA, SPY and
QQQ and investors appear very cautious as we approach all-time high resistance
levels. If we do ultimately gap higher
at the open, we must once again exercise discipline waiting to see if buyers step
in to support the gap. I’m confident the
markets will reach out to test all-time highs but the big question is can they
hold them once there?
A fresh round of earnings reports that include some big tech
has inspired the futures markets sharply higher this morning and has the QQQ
reaching out of an all-time high test. If
this bullishness holds throughout the morning the Dow futures suggest a gap up
of more than 100 points after barely having the energy to move yesterday. Asian market closed bullish overnight and
European markets are mixed but mostly higher.
Bullish trends are intact for the DIA, SPY and QQQ but the IWM is questionable as it struggles with a lower resistance level. Remember to respect the resistance above a be careful to not chase into the morning gap. Wait for proof that buyers will support the gap as the indexes reach out toward all-time high resistance levels. Personally it would be very disappointing after such an impressive 3-month rally if we don’t at least test the all-time highs. The bulls want that headline but let’s not forget there could be bears up there ready to defend so plan your risk accordingly. It’s great to be reaching out but the next step is the ability to hold on to the new elevation and that is still in question.
On the Calendar
We have over 60 companies reporting today with the first big
tech earnings beginning. Some of the
more notable reports today are, BAC, BLK, CMA, CSX, JNJ, UNC, UNH, WIT, NFLX
& IBM.
Action Plan
After a disappointing price action day where both bull and
bears lacked inspiration futures are bullish ahead of a fresh crop of earnings that
include some big tech reports. During
the night Asian stocks advanced closing higher across the board. European markets are currently mixed but mostly
higher as cautious traders wait for US earnings data. So far this morning JNJ has reported an
earnings beat and is indicated higher and although BAC reported better than
expected the stock is currently indicating a flat to lower open. After the bell today we will hear from IBM
and NFLX.
Technically speaking the bullish trends continue in the DIA,
SPY and QQQ. We are so close to testing
the all-time highs in the QQQ and the SPY it would be a surprise to me if the
bulls don’t find a way to reach out very shortly. Who knows today might be the day! Currently the Dow futures suggest a gap up
open of more than 100 points and if the current bullishness continues through
the open the QQQ will be very close to breaking out. As bullish as it now appears make sure you
respect resistance an avoid chasing the open gap. Let’s make sure buyers are willing to step up
in support.
It’s tax day 2019 but that fact has not dulled the bullish
market sentiment with the QQQ and SPY within striking distance of all-time
highs. Asian markets closed mixed and subdued
overnight but European markets are modestly upbeat this morning. As I write this US futures are pointing to a
modestly bullish open while waiting for the fireworks of big bank earnings
reports.
Although within striking distance of all-time highs remember
that means there is price resistance above that must be dealt with and defeated. The DIA still has more than a 400 point hill
to climb to test the all-time highs and that could be challenging to do with challenges
that BA continues to face. Let’s also
not forget the small caps that are lagging way behind at the moment. The bulls are without a doubt currently
control but they do face challenges to consider as you plan your risk for the
week ahead.
On the Calendar
We have more than 60 companies reporting earnings today. Notable reports include C, GS & SCHW.
Action Plan
After Friday’s strong market performance on the back of big
bank earnings the QQQ and SPY are within striking distance of all-time highs. With another round of big bank earnings
reports this morning can the bullishness continue. At this hour futures are pointing to a modest
open but that will likely change for better or worse as soon as earnings begin
to roll out. Asian markets closed mixed
but mostly lower overnight but European markets are currently modestly higher
citing optimism over US-China trade talks.
This weekend the President once again public chastised the
FOMC stating the market would be a lot higher if the Fed would stop worrying about
nonexistent inflation. I suspect that
kind of pressure will do little to dissuade Mr. Powell and the other voting committee
members. Remember earnings season and
very volatile with large gap up or gap down market opens. Don’t get caught up in the hype and drama and
make the mistake of chasing the gap. Allow
the market to open, watch the price action, making sure buyers or sellers
support the gap before making entry decisions.
With a positive US/China Wall Street Journal report, the CVX buyout of APC, Uber IPO filing, Disney’s new streaming service and the kick of 2nd quarter earnings US futures are finally shaking off the doldrums that plagued price action all week. Of course a lot could still change but as I write this the US Futures are pointing a gap up open of more than 150 points.
As the big bank earnings roll in and investors listen in on
conference calls expect some price volatility to occur throughout the morning
as we head toward the open. It would be wise
to remember that all the indexes still have price resistance above and the risk
of chasing this morning gap into resistance need careful consideration. After such a long week of choppy price action
it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement and feel the fear of missing out. Remember this is just the first day of 2nd
quarter earnings there will be more than enough opportunity to come so there is
no need to rush.
On the Calendar
We have a light day on the Earnings Calendar but with only
14 companies reporting but we have a few heavyweight reports kicking of 2nd
quarter earnings season. Notable reports
JPM, INFY, PNC, WFC.
Action Plan
US Futures are very happy this morning even before the big
bank earnings have begun. First the Wall
Street Journal reported positive comments on the progress of the US/China trade
deal raising hopes of completion. Then Chevron
announced it was buying APC in a 33 billion dollar deal. In other news the market seems to like is the
streaming service set to launch in November by Disney and the Uber IPO filing
release. Asian markets closed mixed
overnight and European markets are only modestly higher as investors deal with
another round of growth concerns.
As I write this the JPM just reported a top line beat on
earnings and the futures are pointing to more than a 150 point gap up at the
open. Remember a huge gap like this
opens the door for a possible pop and drop pattern so don’t get caught up in
the morning excitement chasing the open. Let’s wait and see if buyers support the gap
and keep in mind sentiment can change during a companies conference call. Today is profit Friday so those holding long
positions may want to consider the morning gap as a gift and ring the register. As this is just day one of 2nd quarter
earnings consider the carefully the risk you carry into the weekend. With that in mind I wish you all great profits
today and a wonderful weekend!
Not event he FOMC minutes was able to shake the market out of its pre 2nd quarter doldrums. There are a lot of great looking bullish chart setups but with the overall market chopping sideways they’re finding it very difficult to attract enough buyers to get them moving. Unfortunately today is likely to be very much the same as we wait for some of the big bank earnings Friday before the bell. The question is will they inspire the bulls, embolden the bears or will the doldrums continue? Anything is possible.
Technically the indexes are bullish with the SPY and QQQ in
the lead while the DIA and IWM lag behind.
I’m comfortable holding current positions but I’m finding it difficult
to add new risk in such choppy price action.
It’s very easy to overtrade a dull market and wake up the next morning
to find the market moving sharply against your positions. When the overall market is showing cautious price
action that may be a clue we should be doing the same. Be patient and avoid predicting and wait for the
price to show us the way.
On the Calendar
We have only 12 companies reporting earnings today with FAST
and RAD likely the most notable.
Action Plan
Not even the FOMC minutes could break the market out of the
choppy price action we’ve experienced this week. Oddly enough there are a lot very good
looking charts setting up good entry patterns if only the bulls could find the
inspiration. Asian markets closed mixed
but mostly lower overnight. European markets
are basically flat this morning after the decision to grant a 6-month extension
to try an obtain a Brexit deal by
October 1st. Here in the US
future are edging higher this morning but with light economic and earnings
calendars it will be difficult to find inspiration.
The SPY and the QQQ continue in bullish patterns, holding
above support levels and maintaining the trend.
At the close of yesterday the QQQ’s seem the most likely candidate to
attack the all-time index highs. With BA
moving lower to test a critical level of price support the DIA is still doing a
good job of holding support and IWM continues to lag as the weakest index. As we wait for the big bank earnings on
Friday morning, I’m expecting another day of choppy price action. Although there may be lots of great looking
charts be careful on to overtrade.
Although the Dow shed 190 points yesterday the SP-500 and
the NASDAQ stood resolute and well defended by the bulls. Even with the IMP once again cutting global
growth forecasts last night, the futures are pointing to a bullish open this
morning. Asia closed mixed but mostly
lower due to growth concerns but European markets appear largely unconcerned as
they wait for an ECB rate decision and Brexit summit.
Technically speaking the SPY and QQQ continue to look very strong
holding support levels and trend. Though
the DIA and IWM found some sellers yesterday the bears have not shown much conviction. After the morning rush doesn’t be surprised
to more light and choppy price action as we wait for the FOMC minutes this afternoon.
On the Calendar
We have a light day on the Earnings Calendar today with just
11 companies reporting. Notable reports include
DAL before the bell and BBBY reporting after the close.
Action Plan
During the evening the IMF once again cut global growth forecasts
getting a negative reaction lower by Asian markets closing mixed but mostly
negative. European markets however are
slightly higher ahead of ECB rate decision and a Brexit summit. US Futures currently seem unconcerned about
the IMF report this morning pointing to bullish open ahead of the CPI report
and release fo the FOMC minutes.
Although the SPY and QQQ closed lower yesterday there has
been on technical damage as they continue to hold supports and trend. Although the DIA slipped back below a level of
resistance yesterday the bears seemed to lack downside conviction. The IWM remains the weakest of the indexes
leaving behind a possible failure pattern at price resistance. I would not be at all surprised to more light
choppy price action today as the market waits for the FOMC minutes and the kick
off to 2nd quarter earnings on Friday.
Although the SPY eked out a 22 cent gain for an 8-day winning streak it’s overall looking for inspiration. The DIA lost 94 cents, the QQQ gained 47 cents and the IWM slipped 26 cents in a day of pensive price action. Perhaps it’s waiting for the FOMC minutes that will be out Wednesday afternoon but with the fed not planning to raise rates this year it may be difficult to find inspiration there. We may have to sit through light and choppy price action until Friday when the big back kick off the new earnings season.
Futures are pointing to flat open after rallying off the
overnight lows. Asian markets closed
mixed but modestly higher overnight on the back of rising oil prices. European markets are flat this morning after the
president threatened new tariffs due to Airbus subsidies that may be ruled illegal.
It’s very easy to become bored and
over-trade a dull market. The market has
provided some great profits over the last three months don’t give them back as
the market wanders looking for inspiration.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we have just over 20 companies
reporting earnings today. Notable
reports include PSMT,SJR & WDFC.
Action Plan
Although the DIA closed down yesterday the SPY managed an 8th
straight day of gains with a bullish push in the last 10 minutes of the day closing
up 22 cents. The QQQ managed a 47 cent
gain while the IWM slipped 26 cents. That’s
the price action of a pensive market waiting for some kind of inspiration. Today looks to be another dull day with the
US Futures currently flat having rallied off of the overnight lows.
With today’s light economic and earnings calendar we may
have to wait until the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon to
find a catalyst. However with the FOMC
planning no rate increase this year even that news could be uninspiring. With the new concerns raised on earnings
growth we may have to wait until Friday’s big bank earnings to find that spark.
When the market is dull it very easy for
traders to become bored and over-trade a dull market. Trading just to have something to do is bad
business. We’ve made great profits in
the last few months so let’s not give them back over-trading a dull market.
A report suggesting we could have a challenging 2nd
quarter earnings season dampened the bullish
sentiment this morning. Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower
and European markets are seeing flat and
mixed markets this morning. Currently the Dow futures are pointing to a gap down of about 75 points while the
SP-500 and the NASDAQ futures are flat to
modestly lower.
With a challenging 2nd quarter in mind and a relatively light economic calendar this week we
could unfortunately experience some light
and choppy price action this week as we wait.
On Friday the 12th we get reports from JPM, PNC & WFC followed by C and GS Monday the 15th. We will have a little excitement this week
with the CPI report and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
On The Calendar
Interestingly enough we have around 50 companies showing up
on the Earnings Calendar today but there is
only handful that are confirmed reports
so far this morning. Looking through
the list there is none that are
particularly notable.
Action Plan
During the evening futures were looking bullish on continued
hopes of a trade deal but this morning they have taken on bearish attitude. Asian market closed mixed but mostly lower
and European markets are mixed and currently
flat. It seems as if the market is now suddenly
worried that 2nd quarter earnings will not support current
prices.
Analysts have lowered
earnings targets significantly. According to a report the expectation was for
about a 3% growth in earnings but now their thinking it could be down 4%. If the analysts lower the targets enough and
the company tops the estimates the market could still go higher in this silly
game. However, if a large group of
companies misses the lowered targets then
this could be a very challenging upcoming earning season. Friday the 12th
we will hear from JPM, PNC and WFC followed closely by C and GS Monday the 15th
to set the stage.
