Data-driven Confusion

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Confusion

With yesterday’s close leaving behind bearish engulfing candles and one would expect price to follow-through lower this morning but amidst such data-driven confusion futures are currently suggesting a modestly bullish open.  That’s the nature of earnings season.  Anything is possible making it near to impossible for the swing trader or position trader to hold on to an edge and becomes much more like a casino.

With more than 400 companies reporting and several possible market-moving economic reports this morning we should expect the data-driven confusion to continue accompanied by its best friend volatility.  Keep in mind, we have the big Employment Situation number before the bell on Friday so plan your risk accordingly and be very careful not to over-trade.

On the Calendar

calendar

Today will be the biggest day of the week on the earnings calendar with more than 400 companies reporting.  Notable reports include, ATVI, WTR, ANET, AVP, BLL, CBS, CI, ED, WW, DISCA, DWDP, DNKN, EXPE, FRT, GILD, HBI, HLF, HFC, IEP, K, MELI, MNST, MUR, NRG, PCG, PLNT, PPL, RMAX, SHAK, DATA, UAA, X, W, & ZTS.

Action Plan

After some significant bearish price action in reaction to the Fed Chairs comments yesterday afternoon leaving behind bearish candle patterns I was expecting at least little follow-through down this morning.  However, as I write this the futures are modestly bullish even though Asian markets closed mostly lower and the European markets are currently trading mostly lower.  Perhaps its nothing more than high hopes for good results from the more than 400 earnings reports today.

It also makes me wonder if yesterday’s selling got enough traders short to engineer a short squeeze attempt trying to get that new record high in the Dow.  In light of the price action we must also consider the possibility of a pop and drop pattern.  Have I mentioned I hate earnings!  With so much data tossed at the market the fact is anything is possible and swing traders have very little edge in this kind of environment.  Stay focused on price action, remain flexible and guard yourself against over-trading.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

FOMC Decision

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FOMC decision at 2 PM Eastern will weigh heavily on the mind of the market today.  With another big day of earnings behind us and another one already underway this morning the futures are pointing to a bullish open.  Both the SPY and the QQQ look as if they will open in new record territory and with the Dow gaping up this morning it is within easy striking distance of joining the blue sky club.  The IWM continues to lag way behind the others as if the small caps were simply not invited to party.

With over 350 companies reporting today and a full economic calendar that includes an interest rate decision from the FOMC will the bullishness roll on or will the market take a more of a typical wait and see attitude in the price action today?  With so much data to digest anything is possible so plan your risk carefully working to hold on to your edge and discipline to follow your rules despite all the swirling drama of the day.

calendar

On the Calendar

Another big day on the Earnings Calendar today with more than 350 companies reporting today.  Some of the notables reports today include, ALL, AMCX, AWK, NLY, APA, CAR, BP, CAKE, CLX, CREE, CVS, EPD, EQIX, EL, FIT, GCI, GRMN, HCP, HLT, HST, HUM, H, MOR, MET, TAP, PSA, QCOM, O, RCL, SO, SQ, VVV, WMB, AUY, YUM & ZNGA.

Action Plan

After a big wave of bullish earnings reports after the bell the futures are pointing to a positive open.  The question is with more than 350 companies expected to report today and the FOMC Announcement at 2 PM Eastern with the bullishness grow or slip into a wait and see mode.  As I write this the DIA looks to open in striking distance of new record highs joining its compadres the SPY and QQQ with only blue sky above.

The president is putting pressure on the FOMC not only to cut interest rates but begin a program of quantitative easing.  Honestly, I don’t know how something like that could be justified but hey stranger things have happened.  As of now the market is not expecting a change in interest rates but will look closely at their statement hoping to see no signs of growing hawkishness in the wording. 

Trade wisely,

Doug

US & China resume negotiations

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As US/China resume negotiations, China’s manufacturing numbers come in less than expected once again raising concerns about economic growth.  Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight and European markets are mostly red this morning as well.  Here in the US, both the SPT and the QQQ closed at new record highs ignoring global concerns as earnings continue to inspire the bulls higher. 

We have nearly 350 companies reporting today topped with the AAPL report coming in after the bell.  We also have five potential market-moving economic reports on the calendar as well as the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting filling the markets plate for the day.  Prepare for volatility but don’t be too surprised if price action becomes light and choppy as we wait for the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon.  I think we should expect challenging price action the rest of the week where it will be very difficult to swing trade and maintain an edge.  Quick and experienced day-traders will likely have the upper hand.

On the Calendar

calendar

We have a big day on the Earnings Calendar today with nearly 350 companies reporting.  Some of the notable reports are, AAPL, FLWS, AOS, AMD, AKAM, ARNC, ARCC, APRN, EAT, CHTR, CB, COP, GLW, CMI, DENN, ECL, LLY, FEYE, GE, GM, GEO, GRPN, HCA, LL, MA, MCD, MRK, MDLZ, OKE, PFE, PSX, STX, SHOP, SPG, STAG, TWLO, WELL & WH.

Action Plan

Today begins the FOMC 2-day meeting and we have a very big day of earnings reports with AAPL in focus after the bell.  GE has already reported better than expected this morning and gapping the stock 7% higher in the pre-market.   Commonly the price action is light and choppy ahead of an FOMC announcement but with such big morning of earnings we should prepare for the likelihood volatility.

Overnight Asian markets struggled due to manufacturing numbers coming in less than expected to close their major indexes mostly lower.  Europe indexes are flat and mostly lower this morning as well in reaction to the Chian data and selloff in the miners.  Consequently, US futures are mixed and pensive as earnings roll-out.  Anything is possible by the time the market opens so stay on your toes, focus on price and remain flexible.  Finding and holding on to an edge in the kind of environment will be very challenging so plan your risk accordingly.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Drinking from a fire-hose of data.

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fire-hose of data

Take a deep breath and be prepared for volatility this week as the market is forced to drink for a fire-hose of data.  With more than 1300 companies reporting and an economic calendar full of potential market-moving reports including the FOMC Announcement on Wednesday and the Employment Situation number on Friday.  Then to keep in interesting let’s raise the hope of a US/China in the news first thing Monday morning. 

With so much fo the market to try and digest traders should be prepared for volatile price action particularly on Wednesday afternoon if the FOMC decides to become a bit more hawkish in light of the stronger than expected US economic numbers.  The DIA, SPY and QQQ continue to maintain strong uptrends but ahead of all this data it’s impossible to know how the market will react.  Plan your risk carefully and be prepared for the possibility of challenging price action as the market gulps down this fire-hose of data.

On the Calendar

calendar

We kick off a big week of earings with nearly 160 companies reporting today.  Some of the notables today, AKS, AMX CYOU, SNP, CHA, CTB, EPR, LEG, GOOGL, L, MGM, NUSA, NPXI, PTR, THC, RIG, WDC & YUMC.

Action Plan

If you were planning a set of market conditions to create potential volatility and make it very very challenging to trade you would be hard-pressed to top the conditions set before us this week!  Not only do we have a massive week of earnings reports we also have an earnings calendar heavy laden with market-moving reports.  Toss in the FOMC where the strong economic numbers that could have the Fed speaking a bit more hawkish and for good measure raise the hopefulness of US/China trade deal in the news. 

Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight with Japan closed for a 10-day holiday.  European markets are slightly lower across the board this morning as it reacts to weak euro-zone data once again raising fears of a slowing global economy.  As I write this US Futures are mixed and mostly lower as we wait for fresh earnings reports and the Personal Income and Outlay report at 8:30 AM Eastern.  The trends in the DIA, SPT and QQQ remain strong but be prepared for considerable volatility this week with the possibility of large morning gaps and intra-day reversals as the market drinks from a fire-hose of data.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Challenge

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We have had a very busy week of earnings with mostly encouraging results but also some manor disappointments to challenge traders.  However, this week pales in comparison to the challenges we face next week with nearly 1300 companies reporting and an economic calendar brimming with market-moving reports including the FOMC meeting.  It might be wise to consider that as you plan your risk into the weekend.

Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight with European markets trading mixed an nearly flat.  As a result, US futures have mixed results ahead of the GDP report at 8:30 AM Eastern that could well set the tone for the day.  Worries of an economic slowdown could be quelled with a strong GDP number or cemented if the number comes in weak.  Let’s buckle up hoping for the best but prepared for the worst keeping mind the challenge traders face next week mean we will have to be focused and at the top of our game.

On the Calendar

calendar

On the Earnings Calendar we have a little break with only 88 companies reporting but with about 1300 companies reporting next week we must stay focused on reporting dates.  Among the notable reports today are, AZN, AN, BLMN, CVX, CL, DB, XOM, BEN, GT, SNY & WY.

Action Plan

Although we have a slightly lighter day on the earnings calendar we will still have to say on our toes with several notable reports.  The market will also have to digest the GDP report scheduled to release at 8:30 AM Eastern this morning.  If the GDP happens to show growth as many analysts are suggesting it could be just the catalyst needed for the bulls to break through the resistance highs on the SPY.  Of course a decline in the number could cement the worries of an economic slow down bringing out the bears.  Stay on your toes!

Thought the sharp pullback in the DIA yesterday was disappointing it managed to hold just above an important support level.  The SPY and QQQ remain in upward trends and continue to look technically strong with the QQQ leading the indexes.  As we move quickly toward the weekend remember to take some profits and carefully consider the risk you carry into the weekend because next week is a massive week of earnings and economic news including the FOMC.  I wish you all a great weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings are like a box of chocolate’s

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chocolate’s

To rephrase a line from Forest Gump, Earnings are like a box of chocolate’s; You never know what you’re going to get.  Positive big tech reports lift MSFT into the trillion dollar club and FB shares leap 7% despite the expectation of a huge FTC fine.  As a result NASDAQ futures point to modest gap up open with the Dow futures point to triple point gap down after a disappointing MMM earnings miss. 

Asian markets struggled with stimulus concerns closing mostly lower overnight and the European markets are modestly lower across the board this morning amid their earnings reports.  With about 300 companies reporting today and a Durable Good report at 8:30 AM Eastern we still have a lot of random chocolate’s to try and digest this morning.  It’s never a dull moment during earings session so tighten up that seat belt it could be a bumpy ride ahead.

On the Calendar

calendar

Today is the biggest day of the week in the Earnings Calendar with around 300 companies reporting.  Some of the notable reports today include, AMZN, MMM, ABBV, AFL, MO, BCS, BMY, COF, CERN, LFC, CLF, CMCSA, CUBE, DHI, DLR, DFS, F, FCX, HSY, ITW, INTC, IRM, MAT, RTN, SFLY, LUV, SBUX, SIVB, UBS, UPS, VLO, WM and XRX.

Action Plan

After reporting very strong earnings after the bell yesterday MSFT joined the very few companies to reach the Trillion market cap company.  FB jumped 7% as investors shrug off the possibility of a 5 billion dollar FTC fine for privacy violations.  After reporting a huge earnings miss and their largest quarterly loss ever TSLA shares seems to hold firm near yesterdays close.  What’s a little confusing is that futures are currently pointing to gap down open of more than 100 points after the big tech’s reported so well.  Forest Gump should have said, earnings are like a box of chocolate’s; you never know what you’re going to get!

Asian markets closed mix but mostly lower as China wrestles with more stimulus concerns.  European markets are in the red across the board this morning currently holding only modest declines.  The big news this morning is the huge earnings miss from MMM currently indicating more than a 20 point decline from yesterdays close.  Ouch!  With so many companies reporting today anything is possible by the open and remember we still have the Durable Goods report at 8:30 Eastern to also digest before the open.  Buckle up it could be a bumpy road ahead this morning.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Record-Breaking Day

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Record-Breaking Day

Yesterday was a record-breaking day with the QQQ smashing through all-time highs with the SPY and DIA following closely behind.  If the huge round of earnings today continues to inspire the bulls perhaps DIA and SPY can join the party with new record prints.  During the night Australia’s market celebrated with the US touching a 10-Year High while Asian markets struggled, closing mixed but mostly lower.  European markets appear cautious this morning, currently trading mixed but mostly flat.

With more than 200 companies reporting earnings this morning US Futures seem to be taking a wait and see attitude in the pre-market trading.  As a result roll in anything is possible so stay focused on the price action and guard yourself against getting caught up in morning hype making emotional decisions.  Expect considerable price volatility this morning with possible record-breaking attempts as markets react always keeping in mind the possibility of reversal if earnings happen to disappoint. 

On the Calendar

calendar

We have a big on the Earnings Calendar with more than 200 companies reporting.  Among the notable reports are CMG, TSLA, APD ALGN, T, ANTM, AVB, BA, SAM, CAT, CINF, CTXS, CS, CVI, DPZ, FB, GD, LRCX, MSFT, NDAQ, NSC, NOC, NVS, PYPL, SIRI, SAVE, SWK, TROW, TUP and V.

Action Plan

A record-breaking day yesterday with the bulls finding more than enough inspiration to push through resistance on the QQQ which is now up 32% from last Decembers low.  The SPY and DIA are also within striking distance of new all-time high records that could be very easily achieved today assuming earnings continue to roll in above the lowered estimates.  How interesting it is that earnings growth is expecting to decline, but as long as stocks continue to beat lowered estimates the market goes higher. 

Yesterdays now New Home Sales number that surged well above estimates was a particular bright spot yesterday for the strength of the economy.  Asian market struggled overnight closing mixed but mostly lower while Australia’s market reached out to 10-Year highs.  This morning European are mixed but essentially flat as they also react to earnings reports.  As I write this Dow futures point to a modest gap up while the other indexes are currently flat to slightly lower as we wait for another huge day of earnings reports.  With both BA, CAT and T reporting before the bell the actual open of the Dow could be far different than it currently suggests.  Expect significant price volatility this morning.  

Trade Wisely,

Doug

All about the Earnings

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All about the Earnings

It’s all about the earnings and it would seem the entire world is waiting on the edge of their seat to see the results.  Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower as they wait and European index are also pensive this morning waiting on the wave of earnings results out this morning.  The trends in the DIA, SPY and QQQ continue to hold but thus far have lacked the inspiration to attack all-time highs.  If earnings are good enough that may be exactly what we do.

However if earnings disappoint than the small-caps currently the weakest of the indexes could lead us lower and already showing weakness.  Expect significant volatility over the next few weeks with the possibility of large morning gaps in either direction as traders and investors digest the results.  As always set aside your bias and focus on the price action.  What we want the market to do is not relevant.  How we exercise our discipline to trade the market reaction is what matters.  Which direction we go is all about the earnings!

On the Calendar

calendar

We have a big day on the earnings calendar with nearly 150 companies reporting results today.  Notable reports include, CP, CNC, CIT, KO, EBAY, EW, FITB, FE, HOG, HAS, PG, IRBT, JBLU, LMT, NUE, SHW, SIX, SNAP, STT SYK, AMTD, TXN, TRU TWTR & VZ.

Action Plan

After a day of anemic price action markets around the world continued to trade very cautiously overnight.  Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower waiting for the US earnings and reacting to rising oil prices.  European markets currently indicate the same caution with mixed but mostly lower results as they wait for the earning deluge.  As a result the US early morning futures are modestly lower across the board but that likely to significantly change as earnings roll out fast a furiously in the pre-market.

Existing home sales came in short of expectations yesterday despite the lower interest rates.  With that in mind the New Home Sales report at 10 AM Eastern gains in significance and could move the market today should it also miss expectations.  Technically speaking the DIA, SPY and QQQ are in good shape holding trends while still looking for inspiration to challenge price resistance levels.  IWM on the other hand is a different story trading well below all-time highs and currently dealing with a failed new high.  Will earnings prove strong enough to lift the market?  Only time will tell.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Turbulent 3-day weekend.

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Turbulent

A turbulent 3-day weekend of Easter terror attacks in Sri Lanka and Mueller report political drama ahead of a big week of earnings report has the futures pointing to a gap down open this morning.  With several markets around the world closed today and the likelihood that many traders and investors have extended their holiday; there is the possibility of light and choppy price action after the morning rush.

With about 800 companies scheduled to report earnings this week plan for an extra dose of price volatility and don’t be surprised to large morning gaps.  The big question to be answered is whether or not the earnings will inspire the market to new record highs or if the analyst’s concerns of an economic slowdown come to fruition in the company results?  Though we may have had a turbulent 3-day weekend of news the turbulence may just be beginning as earnings season heats up.  Stay focused on price action and plan your risk carefully for the possibility of bumpy air ahead. 

On the Calendar

calendar

On the Earnings Calendar we have nearly 80 companies reporting earnings today but we will have more than 300 reports on Thursday.  As the 2nd quarter earnings season heats up make sure to check reporting dates for all current holdings and those you’re considering for a buy. 

Action Plan

Easter terror attacks in Sri Lanka, Mueller report political drama, rising oil prices, Boeing facing claims of Dreamliner Mfg. issues, and a parked Tesla apparently blowing up are just a few of the stories popping up during the long weekend.  There are several markets closed around the world today as Easter holidays continue.  Futures are slightly under pressure this morning pointing to a gap down of more than 50 Dow points.  After the morning rush there is a possibility of light and choppy price action as may traders and investors have likely extended their holiday vacation.

With earnings season heating up this week we should expect increased price action volatility and the possibility of large daily gaps.  Check those earnings dates on companies you hold or are thinking about buying and plan your risk carefully.  I think the big question to be answered is will earnings finally break resistance highs propelling the markets to new records or will earnings point to the economic slowdown many analysts suggest.  Only time will tell so stay focused on price action for clues and respect support and resistance levels as you plan you risk moving forward.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Full Plate of Data

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Full Plate

On this last trading day of the week the market has a full plate of data to chew through this morning.  Not only will this be the biggest day of the 2nd quarter earnings season so far but we also have several potential market-moving reports on the economic calendar before the open.  Then, shortly after the open, Attorney General Bar releases the Mueller Report that’s likely to trigger a firestorm of political spin and media speculation.

As the market digests all the morning reports it will also need to consider the risk of the 3-day weekend ahead.  I will not be at all surprised if the volume becomes very light and choppy as we head into the afternoon as traders head out to take full advantage of this 3-day spring getaway.  Our full plate will continue next week as earnings season ramps up with more than 700 companies expected to report.  Carefully pan your risk and have a great weekend everyone!

On the Calendar

We have 75 companies reporting earnings on this last trading day of the week due to the Good Friday Holiday.  Notable reports, ALLY, AXP, BBT, BX, CHKP, CFG, DHR, DOV, GPC, HON, ISRG, KEY, MAN, PM, RF, RCI, SLB, SKX, SNA, STI, SYF, TSM, TRV, UN & UNP.

Action Plan

Futures appear a bit sluggish as we head into a big of data before and a 3-day weekend.  First we the biggest day of earnings reports so far this season and a busy economic calendar with Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Bus. Outlook and Retail Sale all coming out at 8:30 AM Eastern.  If that were not enough, Attorney General Bar will release the Mueller Report this morning that is likely to trigger a firestorm of political spin.  Asian markets closed in the red across the board last night and European are currently showing mixed results after a disappointing manufacturing report.

Although US Futures have rallied from overnight lows they are still pointing to slightly bearish open as I write the morning note.  Don’t be too surprised to price action become light and choppy after the morning hubbub as traders and investors head out early to take full advantage of the 3-day weekend.  With the market continuing to struggle against the all-time resistance levels consider the risk carefully you carry into the long weekend.  I wish you all a great day of trading and a wonderful Good Friday holiday weekend!

Trade Wisely,

Doug