Virus Surge and Big Tech to be Grilled

Tuesday gave us an ugly roller-coaster day that ended near the lows.  Only the major FAANGM stocks managed to fight the trend, which helped the QQQ to at least form an indecisive Spinning Top type candle that held up above the 50sma.  On the day, SPY lost 0.34%, DIA lost 0.84%, and QQQ gained 0.78%.  The VXX was on the positive side of flat at 24.27 and T2122 remains oversold at 14.07.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.769% and Oil (WTI) rose one and a quarter percent to $39.04/barrel.

Mortgage applications were flat this week following 4 straight weeks of declines.  Of those applications that were made, refinancing mortgages increased as a percentage.   That said, the overall volume of loan requests is up 24% from one year ago.  This has been helped by another slight fall in rates from 3.02% to 3.00%.

The CEOs of FB, GOOG, and TWTR will testify before a Senate Committee today (odd considering the Senate is adjourned) related to proposed changes to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act that would remove liability immunity for companies related to what is said by others on their platform.  Republicans are decrying bias against Conservatives, Democrats are decrying the spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation, and the President wants no limits on what he can say without being labeled. For their part, the companies are expected to argue that removing the limits would kill smaller online forums, slow communication, and greatly increase costs as every single word transmitted would need to be moderated.

The virus is raging across the US as we passed 9 million cases.  36 states have virus hospitalizations rising by at least 5% (this week) with 43 states reporting increasing new case counts that grew more than 5% versus a week ago as well.  In fact, on Tuesday more than half the states reported their highest daily new case totals in at least one month. The numbers show we now have 9,039,170 confirmed cases and 232,101 deaths with a 7-day average daily new case count spiking again to 72,731/day, while the average daily deaths also ticked up to 842.  The city of Chicago has reinstated restrictions on indoor restaurants and bars as cases race in the city.

Globally, the numbers rose to 44,328,799 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,173,225 deaths.  This includes the world seeing over 411,000 new cases Monday with a 7-day average about 459,000.  Global Covid deaths rose by over 7,000 on the day.  Germany, Poland, and Belgium all reported a record number of new cases.  Meanwhile, France announced new restrictions today.  In the UK, a scientific study has found that the number of people having virus antibodies has fallen 26% in the last 3 months.  This suggests that organic post-infection immunity may be short-lived.  This comes as the WHO reports there were a record 2.8 million new cases reported worldwide in the last week.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red yet again.  Singapore (-1.17%), and Taiwan (-0.63%) led the losses.  Shenzhen (0.68%) and South Korea (+0.62%) led gainers.  However, in Europe, markets are heavily in the red across the board so far this morning.  The raging virus continues to weigh on markets in Europe.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is down 1.79%, DAX down 3.26%, and CAC down 2.09% this morning.  The rest of European Exchanges are down between one and three percent at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a strong gap lower at the open.  The Dow is implying an open down 1.78%, S&P down 1.39%, and the NASDAQ down 1.02% at the moment. 

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to Sept. Trade Balance and Sept. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 6 pm).  Major earnings on the day include ADP, ANTM, BA, BG, BSX, BX, CLS, CME, DAN, DBD, EAT, EPD, ETR, FCAU, MA, MAS, MKL, NSC, OC, PPD, R, SC, SEE, SNE, TEL, TMHC, TT, UPS, and YNDX before the open.  Then after the close, AFG, AMGN, AMP, AR, ASGN, AVT, AVTR, CACI, CERN, CTSH, CXO, EBAY, EQIX, F, FBHS, GILD, KLAC, MOH, MUSA, NOW, ORLY, OVV, SFM, SSNC, SU, URI, V, VALE, WCN, WDC, WELL, and YUMC report.

The 3 big Es are adding to volatility now…elevated virus, election worry, and earnings. With stimulus apparently a dead idea until after elections are held (and probably until results are known), this is a risky environment to wade into very much.  So, expect and plan for the volatility if you’re trading. 

It looks like a nasty open, this morning, but maybe a flurry of earnings reports will change matters for the better.  Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week.  Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline.  Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas for Wednesday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Virus, Earnings, and Merger Lead News

Markets gapped down about a percent Monday as the virus rages around the country.  Then when Existing Home Sales fell 3.5%, the brief rally gave way to a strong selloff that lasted until 1:30 pm.  After that, prices ground sideways until a late rally took prices well up off the lows. Still, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all gave up their short-term price and 50sma support levels.  On the day, DIA was down 2.21%, SPY down 1.84%, and QQQ down 1.50%.  VXX gained 9% on the day, closing at 24.17 and T2122 dropped like a rock, well into oversold territory at 11.60.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.804% and Oil (WTI) also dropped over 3% to $38.58/barrel.

Related to stimulus, talks continued Monday, but the blame game escalated too.  After her call with negotiator counterparts failed to make more progress, House Speaker Pelosi sent a scathing letter decrying the Administration for “official malfeasance.”  At the same time, Treasury Sec. Mnuchin declared that the problem was that “Pelosi has her heels dug in.”  Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader McConnell was not part of the negations and adjourned the Senate until after the election just as soon as the ACB vote is finished Monday.  So, the probability for any deal passing this week is now extremely remote.

Overnight it was announced that AMD will buy XLNX in a $35 billion all-stock deal.  Both are competitors of INTC in the crucial (biggest dollar) datacenter market.  LLY also said it has stopped testing of its monoclonal antibody treatments (the same class as one given the President) in hospitalized patients after a review showed it doesn’t appear to be helping.

The virus is raging across the US, even as many continue to downplay the need and/or usefulness of containment measures, politicians even claiming we’ve turned the corner.  At the same time, 43 states reported increasing new case counts of more than 5% compared to a week ago. 32 states are now in the White House Task Force’s “Red Zone” (having more than 100 cases per 100k of population).  The case numbers show we now have 8,962,783 confirmed cases and 231,045 deaths with a 7-day average daily new case count having risen to 70,987/day, while the average daily deaths also ticked up to 828.  Dr. Fauci (NIH) and a pair of former FDA Commissioners all called for a national mask mandate to stem the growing wave of new cases.

Globally, the numbers rose to 43,857,818 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,165,500 deaths.  This includes the world seeing over 411,000 new cases Monday with a 7-day average about 443,000.  Global Covid deaths rose by over 5,100 on the day.  Germany reported an exponential rise in cases Tuesday with 280 regions now considered virus hotspots (more than 50 cases per 100k of population).  Russia also imposed a nationwide mask mandate among other new restrictions to control the virus.  Meanwhile in good news, India reports another drop in new cases (to a level not seen since late July).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red again.  New Zealand (-1.75%) and Hong Kong (-0.53%) led the losses.  Meanwhile, India (+1.03%) and Hong Kong (+0.54%) led gainers.  In Europe, markets are flat to red across the board as the virus continues its surge throughout Europe and the US.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is flat at +0.13%, DAX fat at -0.04%, and CACA down at -0.64%.  The rest of European Exchanges are down between 0.10% and 0.90% at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modest gap higher at the open.  All three major indices are implying an open up 0.40% at the moment.  

The only major economic news for Tuesday is Sept. Durable Good Orders (8:30 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  Major earnings on the day include ABG, BP, CAT, CMI, CNC, CSTM, DTE, ECL, GLW, HOG, HUBB, IVZ, LH, LLY, MMM, MRK, NVS, ODFL, OMC, PFE, PII, QSR, ROP, RTX, SHW, SWK, TECK, and XRX before the open.  Then after the close, AFL, AMD, CB, CHRW, CYH, EIX, FISV, FTV, JNPR, MSFT, NCR, OI, OKE, THG, and UNM all report.

The Senate, having confirmed ACB as an Associate Justice to the Supreme Court adjourned to return home for politicking. This does remove a little uncertainty as there is now no way to achieve a deal on stimulus prior to the election. However, that won't stop the two main negotiators from casting blame this week. The long and short of it is that the major market driver of last month (hope for more stimulus) is gone, leaving earnings and election worries to drive markets.

It looks like a green open, but there's still quite a bit of work to do if the bulls want to climb back into the range of the last week's candles. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend and recent support. Volatility is likely to continue with more economic news, major earnings, and only a week until the election. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get greedy, don't chase the moves you have missed, and don't predict. Be sure that you respect potential support and resistance.  Follow the trend and trade your plan.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HOLX, BIDU, RAD, XLU, OKE, OTRK, RIOT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Virus and ACB Confirmation Lead News

Markets gapped up about four-tenths of a percent on increased hope for a stimulus deal.  However, they immediately began slowly selling off the rest of the morning before slowly rallying all afternoon.  At the end, prices closed about where they opened leaving indecisive, Doji-type candles.  On the day SPY closed up 0.34%, QQQ, up 0.20%, and DIA down 0.11%.  The VXX was flat at 22.17 and T2122 rose further into the overbought territory to 89.43.  10-year bond yields were down just slightly to 0.841% and Oil (WTI) fell 2% to $39.78.  On the week, all 3 major indices had their first down week since mid-September.

On the stimulus front, talks broke down again Friday afternoon and over the weekend the blame game resumed, both sides claiming the other is moving the goalposts.  In addition, the likelihood of progress on a deal at least early in the week is little as the ACB confirmation process and last-minute politicking has retaken center stage in Washington.

In business news, DNKN reported Sunday it is close to a deal with Inspire Brands (owner of Arby’s, Sonic, and Buffalo Wild Wings) to take the company private for $106.50/share).  AAL announced that they will be holding “customer tours” and “Pilot conference calls” in the coming weeks in order to increase public confidence in the use of the troubles BA 737 Max plane.  AAL said they are tentatively expecting the FAA to lift the 737 Max flight ban in the US sometime in mid-November and expects to hold its first flight on the plane on December 29. Finally, China is sanctioning BA and RTX over arms sales to Taiwan.

The virus is raging across the US, even as many continue to downplay the need and/or usefulness of containment measures.  Over the weekend and White House Chief of Staff Meadows flat out stated “we’re not going to control the virus” (brushing off the recommended mitigation methods apparently in favor of economic growth). The country posted a record-high number of cases both Friday and Saturday.  At the same time, 24 states reported single-day new case highs at least once in the last 7 days, 35 states report case counts increasing more than 10% (on a 7-day average basis versus a week ago), and 31 states are in the White House Task Force’s “Red Zone” (having more than 100 cases per 100k of their population).  The case numbers show we now have 8,889,577 confirmed cases and 230,510 deaths with a 7-day average daily new case count have risen to 68,951/day, while the average daily deaths also ticked up to 818.

Globally, the numbers rose to 43,405,696 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,159,835 deaths.  This includes the world seeing over 428,000 new cases Sunday with a 7-day average about 418,000.  Global Covid deaths rose by nearly 6,000 on the day.  European numbers are surging as governments continue with the least possible impactful responses such as Spain implementing an 11pm to 6am curfew.  However, in good news, AZN reported Monday that its vaccine candidate does produce a similar immune response to virus exposure.  While adverse responses to the vaccine were seen, those responses were lower than catching the virus itself, which is obviously a good thing.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red again.  India (-1.36%) and Shanghai (-0.82%) led the losses, while Hong Kong (+0.54%) and Shenzhen (+0.52%) led gainers.  In Europe, markets are solidly red across the board as the virus surges throughout Europe and the US. Among the big 3 bourses, the DAX is down 2.09%, the CAC down 0.40%, and the FTSE relatively flat at down 0.10% at this point in their day.  The rest of the European Exchanges are down roughly a half to one percent.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap down at the open. The large-cap indices are both down 0.85%, with the QQQ showing the least weakness at -0.63% as of now. 

The only major economic news for Monday is Sept. New Home Sales (10 am).  Major earnings on the day include HAS, HCA, OTIS, and SAP before the open.  Then after the close, AMKR, CE, CINF, GOOG, GOOGL, NOV, NXPI, and PKG report.

With the Senate locked on ACB Confirmation debate and votes and the Speaker of the House and the President's Negotiators back to casting blame, stimulus will have to take a back seat for at least a day or two. (Of course, this is also the stretch run of the election. So, all politicians also have things they'd rather focus on than the people's business right now.) So, the major recent market driver (hope for more stimulus) remains in limbo and there are no other obvious drivers for the day.

It looks like a red open, but still in the range of the last week's candles. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend. However, it looks like we may have found some support close below. Just remember that while unlikely today, even a whiff of a stimulus deal would likely turn the bulls loose. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get greedy, don't chase the moves you have missed, and don't predict. Be sure that you respect potential support and resistance.  Follow the trend and trade your plan.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIOT, BLL, FTCH, FB, FCX, FITB, NIO, TLRY, M, GNUS, MARK, YY. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stimulus Deal Almost There

Markets started off flat on Thursday, but began a rally at 11 am that lasted the rest of the day (on optimistic stimulus comments from House Speaker Pelosi).  This left all 3 major indices with hammer-like candles (although the QQQ hammer has a black body).  On the day, SPY gained 0.56%, DIA gained 0.62%, and QQQ was dead flat.  The VXX lost 2% to 22.15 and T2122 4-week New High-Low Ratio climbed back into overbought territory at 86.56.  10-year bond yields rose sharply to 0.865% and Oil (WTI) was also up 1.5% to $40.65/barrel.

The big news during the day was the House Speaker Pelosi told reporters “we are just about there” on a stimulus deal.  She went on to say the remaining issues seem to be wording and then getting Senate Republicans to agree to the deal.  However, White House staff (like Economic Advisor Kudlow) expressed optimism that they “could round up the needed votes from their side of the aisle.”  That said, no official deal has been announced yet, nor votes scheduled, let alone timing of any disbursements.

After the close, the FDA approved GILD antiviral drug remdesivir as an emergency use treatment for Covid-19 and their stock soared after-hours.  MAT stock also jumped on an earnings beat (heavy Barbie and Hot Wheels sales).  However, even though INTC beat overall, the stock got thoroughly hammered on poor results both in the consumer desktop and the cash-cow datacenter sectors (where AMD is eating their lunch despite INTC’s massive market share).  Later Thursday night a CA Appeals Court ruled UBER and LYFT must comply with state and federal employee labor laws for all people they had previously treated as independent contractors.

On the virus front, in the US the numbers show we now have 8,664,365 confirmed cases and 228,423 deaths.  After another day with 74,301 cases, the 7-day average daily new case count has risen to 62,993/day, while the 973 deaths only moved the daily average of deaths slightly to 808.  5 states reported new record high daily case counts, while 14 more states reported record-high 7-day average counts.   Chicago announced business closures from 10 pm to 6 am as new cases, hospitalizations and deaths have spiked in that region. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 42,083,997 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,144,239 deaths.  This includes the world seeing over 478,000 new cases Thursday (a record high new case count).  Global Covid deaths have also risen (almost 7,000 again on the day), but on average remain about 5,690 per day.  A record for new cases were reported throughout Europe, including Spain, France, Italy, Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands.  However, in Asia, India continues to open up its country (economy) in belief they are past the most recent wave.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red.  Shenzhen (-1.90%) and Shanghai (-1.04%) led the losses, while Hong Kong (+0.54%) and New Zealand (+0.51%) led gainers.  In Europe, markets are solidly green across the board so far today on hope for US stimulus.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is up 1.53%, the DAX up 1.11%, and the CAC up 1.37%.  The rest of European Exchanges are more modestly green.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly higher open with all 3 major indices showing +0.22% as of now. 

The major economic news for Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am).  However, major earnings reports include ALV, AXP, BLMN, CLF, CRI, and ITW all report before the open.  There are no earnings reports after the close.

With the Presidental Debate done, little major economic news, and relatively few major earnings, the main driver of stocks Friday is likely to be stimulus negotiations. Even with both sides of the negotiation saying a deal is close, much doubt remains. The third-side that was essentially not part of the negotiations (Senate GOP) will have the ball in their court once a deal is passed. So, major doubts remain whether anything will get done before the election. That being the case, we are likely to see more volatility until more clarity emerges with hope driving markets up and fear of delay or renegotiation with the Senate Republicans driving prices down. Meanwhile, the virus continues to surge, but markets seem to have baked that fact into the cake and are now more worried about political risk and stimulus.

Remember this is Friday, so think about whether you need to hedge or lighten up in front of the weekend news cycles. Also, continue to be careful and nimble in this whip-saw market. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend. However, it looks like we may have found some support the last 3-4 days and all it will take is a whiff of a stimulus deal to turn the bulls loose. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get too greedy, don't chase the moves you have missed, and don't predict. Be sure you respect potential support and resistance.  Follow the trend and trade your plan.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DIS, WBA, GILD, SCHW, SO, WRB, XLE, TLRY, USB, AA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Jobless Claims, Stimulus, and Debate Lead

Wednesday was another roller coaster day for stocks as the opened before running up and down all day, closing on the lows.  All 3 major indices printed ugly black high-wick, inverted hammer type candles.  On the day the QQQ was flat (-0.08%), SPY was down 0.21%, and DIA was down 0.35%.  The VXX was also down to 22.67 and T2122 fell back to almost exactly mid-range.  10-year bond yields rose again to 0.818% (the High since June) and Oil (WTI) fell over 4% to $39.97/barrel.

Stimulus (or the lack thereof) remained the main story during the day.  The Senate failed to pass the $500 billion PPP loan/grant program Majority Leader McConnell had been pushing.  At the same time, while negotiations continue, House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Sec. Mnuchin failed to reach a deal.  However, both sides announced that differences are narrowing and that they are optimistic for a deal.  Talks will continue on Thursday.  However, even if a deal is reached, it is still an open question if and when McConnell would bring the deal to a Senate vote or whether they could get a larger deal passed.  FDA Head Hahn also said that while no timeline exists, the goal remains that all Americans will be able to begin a vaccine course by sometime next Spring.

Purdue Pharma has plead guilty to 3 federal criminal charges stemming from opioid marketing, will pay a $8 billion fine, and the Sackler family will close the company as an entity while the operations continue as a new company.  Several State Attorney’s General objected to the deal, which would create a government-controlled business from the assets of the company (to continue making/selling Oxycontin).  The objection is based on the states would likely have gotten more money from a private sale, because at least one other drug manufacturer has expressed interest in purchasing the business.  However, the DOJ has completed the deal anyway.

On the virus front, in the US the numbers show we now have 8,585,748 confirmed cases and 227,419 deaths.  After another day in excess of 63,600 cases, the 7-day average daily new case count has risen to 61,481/day, while the over 1,200 deaths only moved the daily average of deaths slightly to 794.  With that background, the CDC reported an alarming trend with surging cases all across the country and particularly high transmission levels in the Midwest as national cases have risen 17% in the last week.  However, NIH Director Collins says a viable vaccine should be approved in the next couple of months with wide availability sometime in Q2 of 2021.  In related good news, the head of the “Warp Speed” program told Bloomberg that it is possible both the JNJ and AZN phase 3 trials would be allowed to restart this week. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 41,568,570 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,137,684 deaths.  This includes the world seeing over 437,000 new cases Wednesday (a record high new case count).  Global Covid deaths have also risen (almost 7,000 on the day), but on average remain about 5,640 per day.  In the UK, the country saw another record number of new cases.  In Poland, the daily death count has reached four times the count during the first wave as the country recorded another consecutive record number of new cases and has turned the national stadium into a field hospital.  A similar situation runs throughout Europe, in particular the Eastern part of the continent including Russia, but also Italy, Belgium, Germany, and Ireland.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly lower with South Korea (-0.67%) and Shenzhen (-0.49%) leading the modest losses.  In Europe, markets are mixed so far today with very modest moves so far.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is up 0.10%, the DAX flat +0.01%, and the CAC up 0.17%.  The rest of European Exchanges are mainly in the red.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly lower open with all 3 major indices showing -0.20% as of now. 

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Sept. Existing Home Sales (10 am), and a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 6 pm).   However, there is also the final Presidential debate at 9 pm.  Major earnings reports include AAL, AB, AEP, CTXS, DGX, DHR, DOW, EQT, FAF, FCX, FITB, GPC, GWW, HBAN, KMB, LUV, MTB, NOC, NUE, PAG, PHM, POOL, RCI, RS, SIRI, SON, STM, T, TSCO, UNP, and VLO all before the open.  Then after the close, COF, INTC, MAT, RHI, SIVB, and TFII report. 

Jobless claims or some tidbit from the stimulus negotiations are likely the only drivers today, in front of the last Presidential Debate. That being the case, we may see another day of rest in the markets as traders seek more clarity. The virus continues to surge, but markets seem to have baked that fact into the cake and are now more worried about political risk and stimulus. Of course, earnings reports remain the wildcard, with mixed but generally positive results reported so far against much-lowered expectations.

Continue to be careful and nimble in this whipping market. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend. However, all it takes is a whiff of a stimulus deal to turn the bulls loose. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get too greedy, don't chase the moves you have missed, and don't predict. Be sure you respect potential support and resistance.  Follow the trend and trade your plan.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AA, BKR, WRB, HUN, SO, DIS, KSS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stop Me If You've Heard This - No Deal Yet

Tuesday saw another volatile day with a half percent gap higher followed by a roller coaster ride that traded in a 1.25% range before closing back just below the open.  The result was a high-wick Doji day that did nothing to break the downtrend.  On the day, SPY was up 0.38%, DIA up 0.35%, and QQQ up 0.21%.  The VXX was flat at 23.23 and T2122 rose a bit but remains firmly in the mid-range at 63.89.  10-year bond yields rose again to 0.791% and /Oil (WTI) rose a percent and a half to $41.51/barrel.

The main news on stimulus was positive during the day with House Speaker Pelosi saying a deal could come before day end and Senate Majority Leader McConnell saying that if a deal was reached, he would hold a vote in the Senate “at some point.”  However, Pelosi’s statement came before she had spoken to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin Tuesday and McConnell also said he was still doesn’t support a bigger deal and is doubtful that such a deal would pass the vote if he held one.  In the evening, White House Chief of Staff Meadows said more progress was made in negotiations, but big differences remain.

In other news, just before the open Tuesday, the US government sued GOOG over anti-trust violations.  In particular, they cite a deal GOOG struck with AAPL in 2018 to make Google the default search engine on all AAPL devices and software (Safari).  As a result, apparently almost half of all GOOG search traffic came from AAPL devices in 2019.  Emails filed with the case report that an AAPL senior executive wrote to GOOG saying their goal was for the two companies “to work as if they were on company.”  Of course, GOOG later released a statement saying the suit is deeply flawed and would hurt consumers by “artificially propping up” lower-quality search engines.

On the virus front, in the US the numbers show we now have 8,521,465 confirmed cases and 226,204 deaths.  After another day in excess of 62,000 cases, the 7-day average daily new case count has risen to 60,915/day, while the nearly 1,000 deaths did little to move the lagging daily average of deaths, which remains relatively flat at 759.  42 states are reporting an increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations as 20% of all hospitals nationally are reporting 80% or more of their ICU beds are full.  However, there are some parts of the country (those that locked down hardest early in the pandemic) that are now easing restrictions. This includes San Francisco, which has now opened non-essential office spaces and various indoor venues.

Globally, the numbers rose to 41,115,504 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,130,693 deaths.  This includes the world seeing just under 400,000 new cases a day.  The good news is that global reported Covid deaths remain about 5,500 per day. In the UK, Manchester was forced to lock down based on the city’s spike in cases, but local authorities and even Tory party factions continue to rail against PM Johnson and the restrictions.  Cases also jumped again in Germany amidst talk of more restrictions from Chancellor Merkel.  The Czech Republic saw another all-time high in new cases, including their PM. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again on modest moves both directions.  Hong Kong (+0.75%) led the gainers being boosted by airline shares soaring after an announcement of major layoffs (5,900) by Hong Kong based Cathay Pacific.  Meanwhile Shenzhen (-1.10%) and Malaysia (-1.23%) led the losses.  However, most of the Asian exchanges were split modestly on either side of break-even.  In Europe, markets are red across the board on pessimism over more US stimulus.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is down 1.13%, the DAX down 0.83%, and the CAC down 0.96%.  the rest of the continent’s exchanges are following the same pattern at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are relatively flat, all 3 showing -0.10% to -0.15% as of now. 

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and a pair of Fed speakers (Brainard at 8:50 am and Mester at 10 am).  However, major earnings reports include ABT, AAN, APH, AVY, BKR, BIIB, ERIC, IPG, KEY, KNX, LAD, NEE, NTRS, SLGN, TMO, and VZ before the open.  Then after the close, CMG, CCI, CSX, DFS, EW, EFX, FTI, GL, KMI, LRCX, MTH, TSLA, UFPI, WHR, and XLNX after the close.

With little news on the schedule, stimulus negotiations and the Senate vote on a much smaller PPP-only bill are likely to lead the news today. The virus continues to surge and the Presidential campaigns may slack off a bit today in preparation for Thursday's debate. However, we have seen hope spring eternal for more stimulus and all we can be sure of is that volatility remains high. Of course, earnings remain the wildcard, with mixed but generally positive results reported so far against much-lowered expectations.

Continue to be careful and nimble in this whipping market. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend. However, all it takes is a whiff of a stimulus deal to turn the bulls loose. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get too greedy, don't chase the moves you have missed, and don't predict. Be sure you respect potential support and resistance.  Follow the trend and trade your plan.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIOT, TWTR, FITB, BIDU, CARR, F, FCX, NIO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Still No Stimulus Deal But Hope Remains

Stocks gapped higher at the open for no particular reason except hope for stimulus, but that was just a bull trap.  After the first 5-minutes, the rest of the day saw an all-day selloff which saw prices close near the lows.  The DIA printed what looked like an Evening Star pattern, as did the SPY (if you squint) with the QQQ printing the biggest black candle of the bunch.  All 3 indices gave up their mid-term uptrends and look to be headed down toward their 50sma for a retest.  On the day, QQQ was down 1.63%, SPY down 1.52%, and DIA down 1.38%.  The VXX rose over 4% to 23.24 and T2122 fell all the way to the lower end of the midrange at 32.28.  10-year bond yields rose significantly to 0.772% and oil fell half a percent to $40.71/barrel.

On the stimulus front, after the close Monday it was reported that House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Sec. Mnuchin made some progress in their talks.  The pair plan to talk again Tuesday.  In the meantime, Senate Republicans oppose the deal the two sides are working toward.  So, on Tuesday, Majority Leader McConnel is still planning to propose a bill about one-fourth the size what Pelosi and Mnuchin are negotiating (covering $500 billion in PPP Loan/Grants for small businesses) in hope of passing it in the Senate in a vote Wednesday.  With all this, there still seems to be optimism in the market that a deal can be reached before the election.

After hours, INTC announced that they had agreed to sell their NAND memory unit to South Korean firm SK Hynix for $9 billion.  Early this morning PG reported a huge beat on sales (+9%) on high demand for household items.

On the virus front, in the US the numbers show we now have 8,459,041 confirmed cases and 225,241 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count rose again to 59,124/day, while the lagging average of deaths remains relatively flat at 741/day.  At the moment, 37 states are reporting virus hospitalizations increasing more than 5% since last week.  More ominously, a half dozen states report ICU bed utilization over 80%. At the same time, 41 states are reporting new case numbers growing by more than 5%. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 40,720,262 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,124,213 deaths.  In Europe, Ireland has imposed a 6-week national lockdown closing bars, restaurants, offices, and limiting gatherings to fewer than 6 people.  Meanwhile, the UK has set a deadline for the city of Manchester to comply with a lockdown order with the threat of national government intervention if they do not comply.  However, in Asia, Hong Kong has slightly reduced restrictions after a week with a better trend in new cases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  Japan (-0.44%), Australia (-0.72%) are typical on the losing side.  Meanwhile, Shanghai (+0.47%) and South Korea (+0.50%) are typical on the green side.  Shenzhen (+1.33%) was the only mover of more than one percent.  In Europe, markets are also mixed, but generally lean to the positive side.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE (+0.31%) and CAC (+0.56%) on green while the DAX (-0.27%) shows red at this point.  The rest of the continent is mixed, but the larger moves are to the plus side at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to another gap higher at the open. The large-cap indices are both implying a move of +0.74%, while the QQQ is indicating +0.71% at this point.  

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Sept. Building Permits and Sept. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), and 2 Fed speakers (Williams at 9 am, Quarles at 10:50 am.  However, earnings are ramping up with ACI, CP, DOV, GPK, IQV, LMT, MAN, NVR, PCAR, PM, PG, RF, and TRV reporting before the open.  Then after the close AGR, CNI, CSL, NFLX, TER, THC, TXN, and WRB all report.

The virus continues to surge, no stimulus deal has been reached, and the politicians of both parties are more focused on the impending election than the nation's business. Nonetheless, the hope/expectation of more stimulus very soon appears to remain high in the market. earnings reports are likely to remain the big drivers of the market Monday. Earnings are the wildcard, with mixed but generally positive results reported against much-lowered expectations. The one constant is raised volatility. And don't forget there are ACB confirmation votes and the final Presidential Debate coming this week that is sure to raise the political risk.

So, continue to be careful in this market. The short-term trend remains strongly bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend. Lock-in your profits whenever you can and stick to your rules. Singles and doubles in the bank beat hope for a home run every time. Don’t get too greedy, don't chase the moves you have missed, and don't predict. Be sure you respect potential support and resistance.  Follow the trend and stick with your trade plans. Monday's candles were ugly, but again this morning the market seems to want to shrug that off.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MRNA, TNA, FAS, DDOG, BYND, RIOT, NIO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bulls Looking to Gap Again Monday

Markets gapped higher at the open and ran higher the first hour Friday on better than expected Sept. Retail Sales.  However, a mid-morning selloff led to a sideways grind that lasted until 3pm, when the floor fell out from underneath the indices.  That late-day selling left all 3 major indices with higher wicks and ugly black candles (although the DIA managed to remain a Gravestone Doji).  On the day, SPY ended down 0.06%, QQQ down 0.55%, and DIA up 0.33%.  The VXX was flat at 22.27 and T2122 remains just inside the overbought territory at 81.48.  10-year bond yields rose to 0.749% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly to $40.78/barrel.

On the stimulus front, on Friday House Speaker Pelosi told other Democratic leaders that the 2 sides remain far apart on several issues.  These are funding for state/local governments, tax breaks for working families, child care funding, and the liability waiver that Republicans want for businesses.  Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader McConnell insists the two sides are negotiating at 4 times the level the Senate GOP will accept and on Saturday said he’s proceeding with votes on a $500 billion PPP Small Business loan/grant bill on Tuesday and Wednesday. In response, on Sunday, Speaker Pelosi set a Tuesday deadline for a deal prior to the election.

On Sunday AAL said they intend to return to the use of the BA 737 Max in December.  Then, early Monday, COP said it will acquire driller CXO for $9.7 billion.  In economic news, China also announced that its economy grew 4.9% in Q3, which brings YTD growth up to +0.7% versus 2019.  However, in the Middle East, the IMF is forecasting a 4.1% economic contraction and oil prices to remain in the $40-$50/barrel range through 2021

On the virus front, in the US we have now gone over 8 million cases, with the numbers showing we now have 8,388,013 confirmed cases and 224,732 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count rose again to 56,322/day, while the lagging average of deaths remains relatively flat at 718/day.  21 states reported a record number of new cases at least once in the last week.  At the moment, 38 states are reporting new case numbers growing by more than 5% with only 2 states trending down and the country as a whole has seen a 16% increase in cases in the last week. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 40,348,289 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,119,305 deaths.  Europe has overtaken the US to become the area with the highest average daily new case count (to be fair, Europe including Russia does have nearly 2.5 times the US population).  This comes as the WHO is warning that many major cities across Europe may reach ICU bed capacity in the next couple of weeks based on the current new case and hospitalization rates.  On cue, Poland began converting a soccer stadium into a field hospital, Italy announced new restrictions and the UK  is in negotiations to lockdown its Northern city of Manchester.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but overall, modestly higher.  Taiwan (+1.24%) and Japan (+1.11%) led the gainers, while Thailand (-2.02% on political unrest) and China (-0.70%) led the losers.  In Europe, markets are also mixed by generally higher so far today.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is down (-0.22%), the DAX flat (-0.03%), and the CAC up (+0.32%).  The other European bourses show a modest move in either direction, but lean to the green side.   As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open.  The DIA implying +0.70%, the SPY suggesting +0.83%, and the QQQ indicating +1.00% at this point. 

The major economic news for Monday is limited to Sept. Federal Budget Balance and 3 Fed speakers (Chair Powell at 8 am, Clarida at 11:45 am, and Harker at 3 pm.  Major Earnings Reports include HAL before the open and CCK, IBM, LOGI, PPG, STLD, and ZION after the close.

The surging virus, lack of a stimulus deal, and earnings reports are likely to remain the big drivers of the market Monday. However, any potential news on the political front remains an overhang for at least another couple of weeks. And of course, the M&A world seems to still be in vogue as we head into the stretch run of the year. The one thing that is sure is that posturing is sure to add to volatility. So, continue to be careful in this market.

Lock-in your profits whenever you can and stick to your rules. Don’t get too greedy, chase the moves you have missed, and don't predict. Be sure you respect potential support and resistance.  Follow the trend and stick wiht your trade plans. Friday's candles were ugly, but the market seems to want to shrug that off this morning.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GLW, URI, HAS, NIO, CGC, GPS, MCRB, SPCE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

No Stimulus Deal Yet as Virus Surges

Markets gapped down 1.25% on Thursday on decreased expectations for stimulus and a much higher than expected Initial Jobless Claims.  However, the bulls spent most of the day working their way back toward the Wednesday close before taking a step back in the final 15 minutes.  On the day, the large-caps both ended flat and the NASDAQ closed down, but all 3 remain in a Bull Flag type pattern.  At the close, QQQ was down 0.67%, SPY down 0.11%, and DIA down 0.03%.  The VXX was up only slightly to 22.10 and T2122 climbed back into overbought territory at 86.39.  10-year bond yields rose to 0.734% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $41.01/barrel.

On the stimulus front, Treasury Sec. Mnuchin told reporters that the White House will no longer let funding targets over Covid-19 testing hold back a stimulus deal.  Later the president said he would raise his offer above the Administration’s current $1.8 trillion, but gave no specifics.  These two developments raised hopes in the market that a deal may still get done soon.  However, after hours, Senate Majority Leader McConnell rejected the idea of any large stimulus bill passing the Senate, regardless of whether the White House backs the bill or not.  He told reporters that the $500 billion PPC bill Senate Republicans will propose and vote for next week is the right level of stimulus.

In an interesting follow-up to a story earlier this week, Robinhood confirmed that almost 2,000 of their trader’s accounts were hacked from a data leak that had been sold on the dark web.  CNBC reported that E*Trade, Schwab, TDA, and others have also been hacked and the Treasury Dept. reports that the total theft through these leaks has been about $1 billion since February.  However, Robinhood is the latest and most high profile due to their notoriety on social media during the pandemic.

European Aviation regulators have declared the BA 737 Max plane fit to fly in European air space again, even before the company makes the final changes demanded by the US FAA. This is very good news for BA, which has struggled with a Public Relations nightmare over this problem plane. In other European news, UK's PM Johnson told the country to prepare for a "No Deal Brexit" (breaking of an international treaty, using WTO tarrif rates, and turmoil around a hard border in Ireland) as no progress has been made in trade negotiations.

On the virus front, in the US we now have 8,219,123 confirmed cases and 222,754 deaths.  After 66,219 new cases Thursday, the 7-day average daily new case count rose again to 54,413/day, while the lagging average of deaths remains relatively flat at 711/day.  36 states are reporting increasing new case numbers and the country as a whole has seen a 14% increase in cases in the last week.  In good news, MRNA said it may have efficacy data on the first 53 patients in its Phase 3 trial sometime in November, but will not have safety data on even those 53 until some unspecified time beyond then.

Globally, the numbers rose to 39,250,410 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,104,131 deaths.  ECB President Lagarde said that economic stimulus in the form of interest rate cuts, forward guidance, and asset purchases is ready and waiting as 80% of European countries are seeing a surge in cases.  In the UK, another region of the UK moved into the highest alert level with a surge of cases, binging a lockdown to that region.  France, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Poland, Belgium, Spain, and Russia are all sitting at a record level of new cases as the rate of spread seems to be even worse than in the US.  Analysts speculate this is because Europe is farther North than the US and may well be further into their seasonal shift indoors.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed and saw modest moves in both directions.  Hong Kong was the biggest winner at +0.94, while South Korea was the biggest loser at -0.83%.  In Europe, markets are nearly green across the board, with the lone outlier of a red Russia.  The big 3 bourses are showing the FTSE +1.31%, DAX +0.87%, and CAC +1.49%.  Other European bourses show a more moderate positive move so far Friday. As of 7:30am, US futures are also pointing to a modestly higher open.  The DIA and SPY are both implying about a 0.25% gap up, while the QQQ is showing a 0.36% gap up at this point. 

The major economic news for Friday includes Sept. Retail Sales (8:30 am), Sept. Industrial Production (9:15 am), as well as Aug. Business Inventories and Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am).  Major Earnings Reports include ALLY, BK, CFG, JBHT, SLB, STT, and VFC before the open.  There are no earnings reports after the close.

Just like yesterday, the surging virus, lack of a stimulus deal, and earnings reports are likely to be the main drivers of the market today. However, news on stimulus (good, bad, and/or conflicting) may also be likely in front of the weekend news cycle. Regardless, the one thing that is sure is that political overhang and posturing are sure to add to volatility. So, continue to be careful in this market.

As always, lock-in profits whenever you can and stick to your rules. Don’t chase moves you have missed, don't predict, and respect potential support and resistance.  Follow the trend and the short-term trend remains to the downside. However, the market is in a longer Bull trend and doing a Flag pattern type move despite yesterday's strong white candle. Just stick to those trading plans and they will serve you well.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FITB, GLW, CGC, TSLA, SPCE, X, OKE, FCX, GPS, INTC. Also, the public is invited to join Rick in the trading room starting at 9 am using this link: https://bit.ly/Hrcopenroom Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bears Looking Strong in PreMarket

Markets opened flat Wednesday and after a slight rally, sold off all morning before a range-bound roller-coaster near the lows all afternoon.  The result is a Bull Flag pattern in all the major averages.  On the day, QQQ was down 0.84%, SPY down 0.63%, and DIA down 0.56%.  The VXX fell a percent to 21.92 and T2122 fell outside the overbought territory to 72.50.  10-year bond yields were unchanged at 0.727% and Oil (WTI) rallied over 2% to $41.11/barrel.

On the stimulus front, Treasury Sec. Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi spoke again Wednesday but did not reach a deal.  Mnuchin threw cold water on the market with comments after the meeting to the effect that getting a deal done before the election will be very difficult.  However, they will meet again Thursday.

After the close, WFC announced they have fired more than 100 employees for abuse of the relief fund programs.  However, they stressed a lower than expected loan loss for the quarter.  UAL also posted a larger than expected loss on the quarter and again stressed the need for relief from the US government.

France said Wednesday that they intend to proceed with a tax on digital transactions with customers located in their country.  The French Finance Minister also said the EU should press ahead with its own plans for an EU-wide digital tax (to prohibit the big tech companies from shifting profits to low-tax Ireland in order to avoid taxation).  US sanctions and tariffs on France are scheduled to take place in retaliation as of January.

On the virus front, in the US the numbers showing we now have 8,153,740 confirmed cases and 221,872 deaths.  After almost 60,000 new cases Wednesday, the 7-day average daily new case count rose again to 53,151/day, while the lagging average of deaths remains relatively flat at 723/day.  36 states are reporting increasing new case numbers and the country as a whole has seen a 14% increase in cases in the last week.

Globally, the numbers rose to 38,814,533 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,098,012 deaths.   In France, new restrictions (including 9pm curfews) were announced as both new cases and hospitalization reached the highest level since June and exceeded their preset threshold for additional measures.  Both Germany and Italy recorded their highest number of new cases since the start of the pandemic and Russia recorded a record number of deaths Wednesday.  Meanwhile, in Spain, all bars and restaurants in the Catalonia region have been closed again for at least 2 weeks. Across the Channel, in a controversial move, Wales has banned incoming travelers from high-risk areas of the UK, including Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. 

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board (with the lone exception of a modestly positive Australia).  Hong Kong and India were the only losses of more than 2%.  In Europe, markets are following Asia with major losses at this point in the day.  The big 3 bourses are showing the FTSE -1.88%, DAX -2.72%, and CAC -2.15% on renewed virus and shutdown fears.  There is a similar scorecard across the rest of the continent’s exchanges.  As of 7:30am, US futures are also pointing to a significant gap down.  The DIA and SPY are both implying about a 1% gap lower, while the QQQ is showing a 1.40% gap down at this point. 

The major economic news for Thursday includes Sept. Import/Exports, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, NY Empire Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am) and 3 Fed speakers (Kaplan at 11 am, Quarles at 11 am, and Kashkari at 5 pm).  Major Earnings Reports include CMC, MS, SCHW, TFC, TSM, and WBA before the open as well as ISRG after the close.

The surging virus, lack of a stimulus deal, and earnings reports are likely to be the main drivers of the market. However, the flurry of economic news at 8:30 am may have something to say about the open. Regardless of the open, political overhang and stimulus posturing are sure to add to volatility during the day. So, be careful if you are going to wade into this market anew.

Be nimble and make sure you lock-in profits whenever you can. As always, maintain your discipline.  Stick to those rules and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Follow the trend (and the short-term trend is down in a longer Bull trend doing a Flag pattern move now). Just stick to those trading plans and they will serve you well.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. However, the public is invited to join Rick in the trading room starting at 9 am (where many trade ideas will be discussed) using this link: https://bit.ly/Hrcopenroom Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Skip to toolbar