Lighthizer's Trade Triple

Markets were indecisive Friday, as details and implications of the first phase of a US-China Trade Deal and the strong Brexit-affirming majority in the UK were being digested.  The SPY and DIA closed up 0.06% on Doji candles, while the QQQ closed up 0.33% on a Spinning Top candle.  In perhaps an outsized move, the VXX closed down 4.14% as a major source of risk was removed as an overhang.  T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 63.43.

Over the weekend, trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer made a lot of news.  In the first set of stories, Lighthizer acknowledged a series of concessions on the USMCA deal given not to Mexico and Canada directly, but to US Democrats.  To gain passage of the deal, USMCA now includes protections for labor, the environment and excludes some industry-specific prohibitions such as the Pharmaceutical Industry wanted to prevent cross-border drug purchases.

In the second set of articles, he gave more details on the Phase-One Trade Deal with China.  He said that while tariffs will be rolled back from 15% to 7.5% on $120 billion in Chinese-made goods, but that the 25% tariff on $250 billion in goods will remain.  Of course, all new (planned) tariffs were canceled.  Perhaps more interestingly, he also claimed the deal would result in an $80 billion increase (to $200 billion) in exports to China over two years.  However, he also said Chinese purchases of US Ag products would be $16 billion (not the $50 billion President Trump claimed Friday). Lighthizer said that plans are to sign the deal during the first week of January.

Lighthizer’s finale for the week was to break the WTO quorum by stopping the appointment of replacement members.  This essentially means the WTO is paralyzed and can no longer rule on trade disputes.  This gives every country the ability to do whatever they want on trade.  And with the US being the biggest economy and major superpower, we can continue to pursue President Trump’s protectionist/confrontational policies without any legal pushback.

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The major economic news for Monday includes Dec. NY Empire Mfg. Index (8:30 am) as well as Dec. Mfg. PMI and Dec. Services PMI (both at 9:45 am).  There are no earnings scheduled for today.  It is worth noting that Sunday night BA reported it was close to making a decision to either temporarily halt or completely discontinue production of the 737 Max.  It seems no FAA approval and order cancellations have seriously impacted that plane's viability at least in the short-term.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed and there remains uncertainty over the actual terms of the US-China Trade deal.  In Europe, markets are all bullish, with the FTSE up 2.25% (still flying the election is out of the way).  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are pointing to a gap higher of between a quarter percent (DIA) and half a percent (SPY and QQQ).

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The major economic news Friday includes Nov. Core Retail Sales (8:30 am) and Business Inventories (10 am).  There are no major earnings reports on the day.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  In Europe, markets are all bullish, with the FTSE up 2.25% (still flying the election is out of the way).  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are pointing to a gap higher of between a quarter percent (DIA) and half a percent (SPY and QQQ).

Impeachment will make news this week. However, with Senate Republicans not even pretending they'll conduct a real trial, that story is unlikely to have any market impact.  So, with the Fed on hold and Phase One of a Trade deal seemingly done, a Santa Claus rally into year-end sure seems like a high probability.  We should keep in mind that we’re always just one angry tweet, comment, or unexpected news item from a pullback.  So, just remember we are at all-time highs and will likely be extended again soon.  Trade the chart we're given, but don’t expect the trend to last forever.  We all know market move in zigs and zags.  Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration: BLUE, GGAL, AMRN, FTCH, AAPL, CHGG, PG, WU, FSK, KO, LOW, BURL, MLNX. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Partial Deal Done...Mostly

Markets ran higher at the open Thursday on a Presidential tweet touting that a phase one trade deal with China is close.  During the day additional leaks claimed it was a “done deal.”  As we should have expected with this story, at the end of the day it was confirmed that a phase-one deal was “done”…except that President Trump had not signed off on it yet.

The net result was that the bulls ran strongly most of the day.  The SPY ended up 0.87%, the DIA up 0.80%, and the QQQ up 0.75% leading to new all-time high closes in all three major indices.  This caused the VXX closed down sharply -5.92%.  Meanwhile, T2122 is inching back toward the over-bought area, now at 78.98.

After hours the President did finally sign-off on the phase-one partial deal, but that while terms have been settled the legal text of the agreement has not yet been written.  (Soooo…it’s done, but not done, close but not quite.)  At any rate, it is being reported that new tariffs are off the table, existing tariffs will be rolled back about 50%. In exchange, the Chinese have agreed to buy $40 billion in US goods.  (This includes the $24 billion/year in Ag products they had been purchasing before this trade war plus an additional $16 billion in other goods.  For reference, the US imports $540 billion/year in goods from China and prior to the trade war China imported $120 billion/year from the US. So, it's not exactly a major change.  Nonetheless, it will be claimed as a victory and markets are likely to continue their run on this news.

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In other news, Congress agreed to a “deal in principle” for a $1.37 Trillion spending bill to avoid a Government shutdown.  Federal funding will run out on Dec. 20 if a deal is not passed and signed.  This basically adds another $100 billion to the budget, but significantly, it does not back-fill the money President Trump unilaterally took from the military to pay for beginning construction on his border wall.  So, there is no word yet on if the President will sign the bill agreed on by the Senate and Congress.

In the UK, Boris Johnson has won a very comfortable majority in Parliament. (The largest majority since 1987.)  This means Johnson will remain PM, no longer need a coalition and that his Brexit plan has the votes needed for approval.  Presumably, this means the UK will leave the EU in January.  The British Pound surged on this outcome.

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The major economic news Friday includes Nov. Core Retail Sales (8:30 am) and Business Inventories (10 am).  There are no major earnings reports on the day.  

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green.  In Europe, markets are also all bullish.  As of 6:30 am, U.S. futures are pointing to a half percent gap higher.

Impeachment remains the main domestic story, but (purely coincidentally I’m sure) the partial phase-on trade deal agreement will overshadow this for markets.  With that overhang out of the way and no economic news Friday, the bulls will likely keep running to the upside.  The temptation will be to get caught up in chasing this surge.  Just remember we are at all-time highs and will be extended again soon.  So, trade the chart we are presented, but don’t expect it to last forever.  We all know market move in zig-zags.  Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans. 

Ed

No Swing Trade Ideas for Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Still Waiting on China News

Markets drifted again Wednesday ending flat in the SPY and DIA, while the QQQ gained half a percent.  This happened on below-average volume.  At the same time, the VXX gained fell 2.33% and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 66.83. So, while still very near all-time highs, markets are drifting this week as we wait on the next news on a potential phase-one China trade deal.

In the news, as expected, the Fed left rates unchanged and again said it would take a major shock before they raised rates.  However, there was no more news on the China Trade deal.  Even so, more talking heads and CEOs say they expect a phase one deal prior to prevent any new tariffs on China.  The FAA also said that 737 Max recertification will not be completed until sometime in 2020.  (The latter hit BA hard at the open, but it recovered all day.

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The major economic news Thursday includes Nov. Core PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  The only earnings of note are ADBE, AVGO, COST, and ORCL, all after the close.  However, just as earlier in the week, all of this is likely to be overshadowed as we inch closer to the Dec. 15 “New Tariffs on China” deadline.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green, but wide-ranging (NIKKEI up 0.14%, but Hong Kong +1.31%).  In Europe, markets are mixed, but most are green.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are just on the green side of flat.

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Impeachment (and related distractions) remain the main domestic story. In Europe, they are waiting on the outcome of today's UK election. And the whole world continues waiting on the next twist in the China Trade War. So, markets may drift even more today. However, no matter what chart we get, that's the market we have to trade.  Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. GOLD, LDOS, AMKR, LRCX, GPK, DHI, RMD, LOGM, LYFT, XLNX, WUBA. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Waiting...

Tuesday was another blah day with slightly less than normal volume.  It seemed like markets were waiting on another shoe to drop. The bulls never could get going, but the bears had no energy either.  As a result, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all ended up with indecisive Doji-like candles down about 0.1%.  The VXX had no juice either, ending up just 0.17%.

In trade-related news, Congress announced its agreement to approve a revised version of the USMCA (successor to NAFTA).  However, there was no new information on the China Trade deal, which the market took as something to fear this close to the next deadline.

The major economic news Wednesday includes Nov. Core CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10 am), and the Fed Statement (2 pm) and Press Conference (2:30 pm).  However, with the Fed flat out stating it will be on hold for the rest of the year, no significant reaction is expected.  The only earnings of note are LULU.  However, just as earlier in the week, all of this is likely to be overshadowed as we inch closer to the Dec. 15 “New Tariffs on China” deadline.

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Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but Hong Kong was well in the green.  In Europe, all the major markets are mixed.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are pointing to an open about flat on the SPY and DIA with a quarter-percent gap up in the QQQ. It is also worth noting that the Saudi Aramco IPO did very well, pricing at the top end of its expected range and rising 10% on its first day of trading (on the Saudi market).  This makes Saudi Aramco the largest company in the world by a wide margin (over MSFT and AAPL).

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With impeachment remaining the main domestic story, Europe awaiting the outcome of the ECB meeting and the UK election, and the whole world waiting on the trade deal President Trump told us was done 10 weeks ago, markets may well drift even more.  Regardless, we have to trade the chart we get.  Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. BLUE, NWL, KEYS, DCP, THO, IPHI, PAA, JBHT, EW, EXEL. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

China Inflation Risk

Monday was a blah, mildly-down day on light volumes for markets.  A day with no news, no earnings, and the overhang of upcoming news later this week just gave the bulls nothing to get themselves started.  The SPY lost 0.31%, the DIA lost 0.33%, and the QQQ lost 0.45%. 

In trade-related news, there seems to be optimism that the White House and Congress will come to an agreement on the USMCA (successor to NAFTA).  Still, US negotiators are scheduled to head to Mexico next week to iron out additional issues such as worker rights as demanded by Congressional Democrats.  So, it’s not a done deal yet.

Related specifically to China trade, CNBC’s lead story is adding fuel to the “a deal will be reached soon” camp.  It reports (belatedly, I’ve been telling people this for a couple of months) that China has dramatically increased the import of US Soybeans.  For the record, while it looks dramatic, they were essentially importing none last year.  What they’ve done is to take their US imports back to the pre-Trump 2017 level.  It is worth noting that they've also increased soybean imports from other countries as well.  In a likely more important story, overnight China announced it’s inflation rate has risen to 4.5% last month. This was largely due to a huge increase in pork prices, which shot up due to disease forcing the culling of most herds in Asia.

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The major economic news Tuesday is limited to Q3 Non-farm Productivity and Q3 Unit Labor Costs (both at 8:30 am).  The only earnings of note are AZO before the open.  All of this may be overshadowed again as we inch closer to the Dec. 15 “New Tariffs on China” deadline, the UK election and Fed / ECB rate decisions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the red.  In Europe, all the major markets are deeply red at this point.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to about a half percent gap lower.

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With impeachment being the main domestic story, Europe awaiting the outcome of the ECB meeting and the UK election, and markets scared by Chinese inflation, the impetus is to the downside this morning.  So, we may see some follow-through to the downside.  However, don’t get too far out on a limb chasing.  The bulls have been incredibly resilient since summer and are looking for any excuse to run to new highs again.  Trade whatever chart we get handed.  Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. CPB, ARMK, ALLK, ALKS, KLAC, ENTG, ANGI, CGC, NKTR, TREX. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Lull before the Coaster Ride?

The one-two punch of hope for a trade deal with China and blow-out Jobs data caused a huge gap-up and push Friday morning.  However, after 12 pm the grind was on and we treaded water the rest of the day.  The SPY ended up 0.91%, the DIA up 1.20% and QQQ up 1.07%.  This placed us below, but close to all-time highs again.  At the same time, T2122 has risen into the over-bought area at 91.28.  The bulls clearly have taken control once again.

Related to the Trade War with China, Bloomberg reported Sunday that “sources” on the Chinese side expect a deal prior to the Dec. 15 deadline…thus forestalling new tariffs.  They expect this deal to include a significant rollback of existing tariffs.  On the US side, Larry Kudlow said again this weekend that a phase one deal is very close (as it has been since it was "done" two months ago).  His main point was that if a deal is done it will President Trump’s decision.  (After all, it’s not a deal or its terms that matter. The important thing is who gets credit.)  

Potentially complicating a deal is continued unrest in Hong Kong.  The largest demonstration in six months took place Sunday.  Police estimate 200,000 protestors while organizers put the number closer to 1 million.  In either case, it was a “relatively peaceful” demonstration with only sporadic petrol bombs thrown and the only arrests coming prior to the event as a couple dozen organizers were snatched up shortly before the protest.

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Monday has no major economic news or earnings reports.  However, this may be a roller-coaster week with another Fed meeting (no moves expected), the election in the UK, an ECB rate decision, and more twists in the trade deal saga likely prior to Sunday’s tariff increase deadline.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the green.  In Europe, the major markets are also mixed, but mostly red at this point.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to an open slightly on the downside of flat from Friday’s close.

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With no expected news or earnings today and some major events planned for later in the week (or weekend), today may be a rest day.  On the other hand, the bulls can smell those all-time highs again and nothing has changed since Friday’s dramatic run.  So, they will be wont to follow through.  Either way, we need to trade the chart we get.  Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. CC, HP, DVN, EOG, CXO, CPRI, DXC, FMC, KO. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Payrolls and China Trade

Stocks gapped higher Thursday, mostly on the back of continued hope for a partial trade deal with China.  However, it then spent the rest of the day wavering back down and then up again.  Markets ended below the open, but still mildly higher.  The SPY gained 0.18%, the DIA gained 0.11%, and QQQ gained 0.20%.  However, keep in mind that even after the second straight day of gains, the indices remain below Monday’s candle.  So, there is no clear trend this week.

The main economic news yesterday was the OPEC meeting.  They are reportedly considering an additional 500,000 barrel/day production cut (bringing their total cuts to 1.7 million barrels).  However, the Thursday session ended with several unresolved disagreements and no customary end-of-meeting press conference. 

However, in a potential sign (or not) on the trade war front, Bloomberg is now also reporting that China has “started to process applications” by Chinese companies who are requesting tariff waivers to buy pork and soy beans from the US.  Those who are claiming a trade deal is near are citing this as evidence.  However, it is worth noting that there are still quotas on how many applications and how much underlying product can have these tariffs waived.

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Friday major economic news includes Nov. Nonfarms Payroll and Nov. Unemployment Rate (both at 8:30 am).  Expectations are for a large increase in Payrolls as 50,000 GM Strikers get added back into that number this month.  Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am) is also on the docket.  There are no major earnings reports Friday.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green.  In Europe, the major markets are mostly green (except the FTSE) at this point.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a higher open, up 0.2% - 0.3% from Thursday’s close.

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November Payrolls and trade war tea-leaf reading are likely to drive markets Friday. Just remember that we are heading into a weekend where we cannot react to tweets or news until Monday.  So, it may be time to take some profits off the table or add some hedges.  As traders, our job is to make consistent gains and reduce risk, the market is not a lottery ticket.

Ed

Sorry, but no Trade Ideas on Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Conflicting Trade Deal News

Stocks bounced back Wednesday (at least in terms of gapping) after the previous three down days.  An anonymous Bloomberg report claimed progress was being made on how many tariff rollbacks would be part of phase one (partial) trade deal with China.  This was enough for the bulls to gap again.  However, there was no follow-through in the DIA and QQQ.  Meanwhile, the SPY did manage a small bit of post-gap gain.  The SPY ended up 0.62%, the DIA up 0.56% and the QQQ up 0.51%.  However, it is worth noting that all three remain below their Monday close.

In trade news, we’ve gone from back-and-forth rumor/leaks/reports to the even more bizarre.  This morning Bloomberg is reporting positive spin, saying China is in close contact with the US and the US negotiators are confident in a phase-one deal before Dec. 15.  Meanwhile, CNBC and others are reporting China is giving little indication of progress and are remaining silent, except to reiterate a weeks-old statement that any phase-one deal must include tariff rollbacks…not just forestalling new tariffs.  Regardless of which (or either) may be true, markets seem to be taking this as bullish news. 

On the political news front, President Trump abruptly left the NATO meeting after turmoil between himself and other leaders (including being corrected by President Macron during a joint interview and being the butt of jokes between other leaders).  Elsewhere, North Korea must have felt it wasn’t getting enough attention.  So, it warned the US to prepare for a “Christmas gift” as its self-imposed deadline for progress on a nuclear deal approaches.

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In economic news, ADP Nov. Private Payrolls were a big miss (coming in at 67,000 versus 145,000 expected).  ISM Non-Mfg. PMI also was light (53.9 versus 54.5 expected).  In addition, US Oil inventories were much, much higher than expected (2.5 times predicted). This last report comes as OPEC says it is considering deeper production cuts (although each OPEC member wants other countries to do the cutting).

Major economic news for Thursday includes Imports, Exports, and Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), as well as Oct. Factory Orders (10 am).  Major earning reports will include BF.B, COO, DG, KR, TIF, and ULTA. 

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Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green.  The same is true in Europe, as all the burses (except the FTSE) are green at this point.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a gap higher of about 0.3% to half a percent.

So, we may be looking at another gap up this morning.  Bulls have definitely looking for any reason to run the last couple months.  However, there have been some warning signs (ie. Weak Mfg. data) and reasons to worry (blow-off top action?).  That being the case, it would be wise not to chase too far either direction.  Stick to your trading plan, keep locking-in profits, and move your stops.  Our job is to make consistent gains and reduce risk.  We’re not here to hit the lottery.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. LB, CPRI, CXO, CBS, HAL, VIAB, MNST, KO, DXC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

More Trade War Give & Take

Stocks suffered large gaps lower across the board Tuesday as President Trump threatened new tariffs (France, Italy, Turkey, Austria) and acknowledged that there may be no China trade deal prior to the 2020 Election.  Then mid-day the White House acknowledged that the President plans on moving ahead with more China tariffs on Dec. 15th.  However, after some follow-through in the morning, the rest of the day was still spent slowly grinding back to above flat after the gap down.  Meanwhile, the VXX ended up 5.80%.

The SPY ended down 0.67%, the DIA down 0.97% and the QQQ down 0.78%.  This made for the third straight down day (including the short session Friday).  In and of itself, this is causing fear and talk of a repeat of 2018’s December selloff.  However, to put this 3-day slide in perspective, we are only 1.5 to 2 percent off the all-time highs.  So, we are not exactly seeing the end of the world yet. 

After hours, the Co-CEOs of Alphabet (Larry Page and Sergey Brin) stepped down and appointed Google CEO Sundar Pichai as their replacement.  Pichai is an Engineer by trade and more of an operations guy than Page or Brin.  He was a driving force behind Google moving into non-search projects such as self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, rural internet, and others.

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Despite the President's Tweets and words yesterday, Bloomberg reports that the US and China are inching closer to an agreement on the number of tariff rollbacks that would be acceptable for a "phase one partial deal." American sources say they expect the arrangement to be agreed prior to 12/15 (also forestalling another round of tit-for-tat tariffs). However, there is no word on when such an agreement would actually be signed. This story smacks of being another back and forth dueling false rumor around the China Trade War. Nonetheless, stocks are seeming to react very positively to the news.

Overnight, Asian markets were again in the red.  In Europe, the major markets are all in the green at this point.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a half percent gap higher on the trade deal rumor.

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In other trade news overnight, France and the EU have said they will retaliate over US-threatened tariffs on French goods. In addition, French President Macron, UK PM Johnson and Canadian PM Trudeau were caught on a "hot mic" joking about President Trump. (And we all know how well he can take a joke...so expect more on this front.)

With an apparent attempt at a rebound in the cards this morning, don't start chasing. Keep in mind that to be successful, a trader must follow their rules...not get caught up in Fear of Missing Out. So, stick to your plan, lock-in profits along the way, move your stops, and maintain your discipline.  Remember that your job is to be prepared, make consistent gains and reduce risk, not to hit home runs every once in a while.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. TTWO, DXC, ALXN, EA, ECL, WBA, ARMK, KLAC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

More Trade Wars and Fear

The bears controlled markets all day Monday (on the back of another Presidential tweet, as well as bad Mfg. PMI data).  As a result, we got the biggest down day in almost two months.  The SPY lost 0.85%, the DIA was down 0.98% and the QQQ lost 1.02%.  As you’d expect, the VXX rose 5.2%, but only to a still-low level of 17.  T2122 has fallen back to the edge of the oversold area at 19.38.  However, remember the market can remain oversold longer than we can stay solvent predicting a turn.

The big news for markets Tuesday will be Protectionism and Trade Wars.  After the close, the US administration threatened to put 100% tariffs on French products in response to French taxes on digital services.  (President Trump also attacked French President Macron verbally at the NATO summit.) The administration said it is also exploring doing the same to Austria, Italy, and Turkey for the same reason. 

This threatening and tariffs is a theme with the current administration and follows on the heels of the Sunday night tweet-based new tariffs on Argentina and Brazil steel and Aluminum.  Then this morning, the President announced that “it may be better” to wait until after the 2020 election to make a trade deal with China. (Partially acknowledging the reality that China is not in a particular hurry, he is not the one holding all the cards, and he is not going to dictate to another major economic power.) 

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Futures took this trade war rhetoric badly and markets are likely to react all day. This is because there is no major economic news planned for Tuesday.  In addition, there are no major earnings reports before the open.  (CRM and WDAY both report after the close.)

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the red (except Shanghai).  In Europe, the major markets are mixed at this point.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a gap down of about half a percent.

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So, trade/tariff fears are likely to drive markets in the absence of other news.  However, early Cyber Monday results may well add momentum one way or the other.  Regardless, the bulls have been very resilient for the last couple of months.  So, don’t get too carried away if markets are soft again Tuesday.    

Just remember that we are swing traders.  By definition, we need down-swings to set up an up-swing.  So, continue to look for the next opportunity setting up, lock-in profits, and trade your plan.  Remember that your job is to be prepared, make consistent gains and reduce risk, not to hit home runs every once in a while.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. VXX, FAZ, SPXU, Z, KR, CPB, JBHT, LEN, KLAC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

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