Big Tech Blowouts Help Futures

Markets gapped down on the 33% Q2 GDP contraction and unexpected rising jobless claims.  However, after a half-hour of follow-through, the bulls stepped back in and rallied stocks until 1 pm.  The rest of the day was a tight-range grind sideways.  This left the SPY down 0.36%, the DIA down 0.84%, and the QQQ up 0.52% on the day. The VXX climbed 2% to 29.20 while T2122 fell to 73.94.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.548% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2% to $40.41/barrel. Yet, despite all this on the day, the main characteristics for the last week have been consolidation and chop.  

After the close AAPL, AMZN, FB, and GOOG all reported strong beats.  With their mega-caps, this will surely drive markets higher at least at the open Friday. AMZN’s surge in sales and profit was expected with all the pandemic online buying but it was still impressive.  AAPL’s beat was much larger than expected with a major beat on iPhone sales to give them a record quarter.  They also announced a 4-for-1 stock split as on August 24.  It is also worth noting the FB beat on ad revenue despite the advertising boycott, though they did mention that it could have an impact for Q3.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,635,226 confirmed cases and 155,306 deaths.  With new cases came in at 68,569 Thursday (above the 7-day average) and deaths remained high at 1,465 (far above the 7-day average).  Several states had record new cases confirmed Thursday, but not the usual suspects.  This time it was states such as MO that set records.  However, FL had almost 10,000, TX almost 9,000, and CA almost 8,200 as they still lead in actual new case count.  In a virus-impact story, after the close, S&P said that over 150 firms that received PPP loans are planning layoffs.  This is only based on layoff notices and does not include all states.  44% of the layoffs are described as “permanent” with 22% more “unclassified.” 

Globally, the number of cases has reached 17,505,359 confirmed cases and 677,459 deaths.  In Latin America, Argentina reported its highest number of infections and deaths on Thursday. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to see large numbers with another 58,000 new cases.  Closer to home, Mexico   In Asia, the outbreaks in Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, India, and Australia.  China also reports a 3rd straight day of the new outbreak, but they have a stricter measure than we do, as they mean over 100 cases, not tens of thousands.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, with Australia down 2% and Japan down almost 3%.  However, Shenzhen was up over 1.3% and Shanghai up 0.7% as Chinese Factory Data beat expectations.  The remainder of Asian Market moves were modest and probably leaned to the red.  In Europe, markets are also mixed, but lean much more heavily to the green side.  The 3 major bourses all have very modest moves so far, with the FTSE flat, CAC up a quarter percent, and the DAX up six-tenths at this point in the day.  This all comes as Eurozone GDP fell 12.1% in Q2. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to one percent gap up in the QQQ, but the DIA and SPY are just on the green side of flat.

The major economic news for Friday includes June PCE, Q2 Employment Cost, and June Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  The major earnings reports include ABBV, AON, BAH, BERY, CAT, CBRE, CHD, CHTR, CL, CVX, D, GT, HRC, IMO, ITW, JCI, LHX, LYB, MRK, NWL, PBF, PEG, PSX, SNA, SPB, TU, VFC, WY, and XOM all before the open.  INTU is the only major earnings after the close.  

The consolidation and back-and-forth chop continued again Thursday.  However, the mega-tech earnings blowouts should give the bulls some energy early today.  Vaccine manufacturers continue to rack up major contracts as Japan and the US both signed major deals.  So that industry’s stocks should get a boost.  However, remember that despite the swings, nothing has really changed in the trend or chart.  The trend remains bullish and the chart remains consolidating.

Continue to keep an eye on those mega-cap FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.”  Stick to your rules.  Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and always take profits as you go.  Remember, our job is to make our goal consistently, not to win the lottery on one trade. And don't forget it's Friday, so lock-in some profits ahead of the weekend spin cycle.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CWH, LOGI, FAST, XLK, AA, CRWD, ABT, KRE, COF. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

GDP, Jobless Claims, and Earnings Galore

Markets gapped up about three-tenths of a percent and proceeded to put in a slow, steady all-day rally.   As expected, the Fed decision and statement gave no surprises and only the big Tech anti-trust hearings caused any blip at all.  However, stocks still closed near their highs.  Yet even with a nice candle on the day, no major ground has been gained by the bulls or bears for the week as a whole.  The SPY closed up 1.20%, the DIA up 0.59%, and the QQQ up 1.15% for the day.  The VXX fell to 28.52 and T2122 climbed well back into the overbought territory at 91.57.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.577% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $41.30/barrel.

The key takeaway from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference was that the FOMC is “not even thinking about raising rates” and while recovering, “the economy remains well below the levels at the beginning of the year.”  So monetary policy should remain full speed ahead on the printing presses. On the Fiscal side, the Democrats and Republicans remain far apart (as well as the Republicans within their own ranks) on another Stimulus bill agreement.

On the Anti-trust hearings, the CEOs of AAPL, AMZN, FB, and GOOG were beaten up with evidence of anti-competitive activities.  The CEO’s general approach seemed to be denial or reframing of the allegations.  However, Jeff Bezos went a different route, claiming to be shocked and concerned at the accusations.  It is worth noting that FB, AMZN, GOOG, and AAPL stocks all rose well over a percent on the day. So, Mr. Market did not care about at least the first couple hours of the process.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,568,375 confirmed cases and 153,848 deaths.  With new cases came in at 66,921 Wednesday and deaths rose again to 1,485.  TX passed NY to join CA and FL with the distinction of being the most-infected states.  This came as another group of scientists called for a second national shutdown.  The first group was 150 scientists who wrote an open letter last weekend.  Johns Hopkins University Infectious Disease Department scientists became the second group, recommending 10 steps which included a national lockdown and nationally mandatory masks to stem the tide.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 17,213,663 confirmed cases and 670,909 deaths.  In Asia, Australia, Hong Kong, India, and Vietnam all had record numbers of new cases while Japan and South Korea were near record highs. In Europe, Italy extended its state of emergency through Oct. 15.  This comes as Germany reports the sharpest quarterly economic drop on record (a 10.1% contraction).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, but this time lean toward the red.  However, the moves were modest.  The lone outlier is Taiwan, which was up 1.45%.  In Europe, markets are strongly red across the board on poor economic data and a resurgence of cases in a number of EU countries.  As of this point, the FTSE is down 1.92%, the DAX down 2.85%, and the CAC down 1.68%.  In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a once percent gap down across the 3 major indices.  However, the economic data at 8:30 am is likely to have a significant impact one way or the other.   

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Q2 GDP and Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  Major earnings include AOS, AGCO, ALXN, AMT, BUD, APTV, ARW, AZN, BAX, CARR, CI, CLF, CNHI, CMCSA, COP, DAN, DBD, DD, FNMA, FMCC, FMS, GPC, GPI, HBI, HUBB, IDA, ICE, IP, K, KDP, KHC, LIN, LKQ, LLY, MA, MAS, MCO, MD, MMC, MT, NEM, NOC, ODFL, OSK, PG, SAH, SIRI, SNDR, SO, SWK, TAP, TMHC, TXT, UPS, VLO, WM, WLTW, XEL, XYL, and YUM all before the open.  Then AAPL, AJG, AMZN, ATUS, BLDR, CC, DVA, EA, F, FB, FLEX, FLS, GILD, GOOG, HIG, INT, LPLA, MHK, MOH, MTZ, RLGY, SEM, X, VRTX, and XPO all report after the close.

Wednesday gave us a nice candle in an otherwise consolidating last week. With no sign of a stimulus deal yet, it will surely be GDP and Jobless Claims that call the tune for the day. However, there are a lot of important earnings today(but most of the mega-cap tech names are after the close). So, volatility is likely to continue after the news.

Did you ever think you'd see a day when if we were lucky enough to see a 30% GDP contraction, that might be seen as a major beat of estimates? The point is we are in uncharted waters. We really don't know how good or bad any number will be seen by the overall market. All we know for sure is that bulls have been wearing their rose-colored glasses for some time and that whipsaws are fast.

Keep the FAANG stocks in your line of sight as they will point the way. Follow the trend, don’t try to predict reversals or chase moves that got away. And always, always take profits as you go.  Remember, trading is a job and we’re here to consistently make profits, not win the lottery.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: OIH, V, SIG, SYF, FITB, FAST, COF. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

FOMC Center Stage - No Change Expected

Stocks opened down slightly, then ground sideways until 3 pm when a late-day selloff closed us on the lows Tuesday.  Overall, it was a blah summer day, seeming to wait on Fed news or some other catalyst. On the day, SPY closed down 0.59%, DIA down 0.76%, and QQQ down 1.27%.  Oddly on a down day, VXX also closed down to 29.17, but as expected T2122 also fell just a touch to 78.07.  10-year bond yields were flat at 0.579% and Oil (WTI) fell back to $40.93/barrel.  On the upside, Gold closed at another all-time high.

During the afternoon, the Fed announced it is extending its pandemic loan programs (previously planned to end in September) through at least the end of the year.  At the same time, Senate Majority Leader McConnell was telling the press what he refuses to negotiate with Democrats and other Republican Senators were saying they oppose the GOP plan.  Not to be outdone, Senate Minority Leader Schumer was attacking the Republican plan from the opposite direction.

Last evening, V reported sharply lower revenue and earnings.  The company said that even as the country was reopening in June, they saw spending using their cards down 10% during the month (which was actually an estimate beat).  BBY also announced that they will join the bandwagon of companies that will not open Thanksgiving Day.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,498,475 confirmed cases and 152,343 deaths.  With new cases came in at 64,729 Tuesday and deaths more than doubled day-to-day to 1,245. FL and NC both reported a record number of virus hospitalizations Tuesday.  However, FL also reported a bit less than their 7-day average of new cases. Outbreak fears seem to have shifted from the sunbelt to the IN, OH, KY, and TN area.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 16,923,001 confirmed cases and 664,191 deaths.  UK PM Johnson warned of a second wave in Europe.  This came as the UK and Germany both toughened their travel restrictions for Spain based on an outbreak in the Barcelona region.  This came as the Spanish PM warned tougher measures will be needed unless the spread is broken in the next 10 days. In Asia, the Vietnamese PM said every city and province in his country is now at high risk for infection and that they will institute strict lockdowns.  Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam said the city was on the verge of a crippling outbreak as well.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, with Japan and India significantly lower, but China strongly higher.  The rest of the national bourses were mixed and closer to flat.  In Europe, a similar scene is taking place with the only significant moves being France to the upside and Italy to the downside so far on Wednesday.  In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a flat to mildly green open. 

The major economic news for Wednesday includes June Trade Balance and June Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), June Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC Statement and Rate Decision (2 pm), and the FOMC Press Conf. (2:30 pm).  Major earnings include AAN, AER, ANTM, ADP, AXTA, BA, BSX, BCO, BG, CLS, GIB, CME, ENB, EPB, ETN, ETR, GD, GE, GM, HES, IPG, MGLN, MKL, NSC, OC, PAG, R, SNY, SC, SMG, SPOT, TROW, TEL, and TT all before the open.  Then after the close, ADM, AMP, APA, AR, ASGN, AVTR, CCI, CERN, CTSH, CXO, EQIX, FBHS, FTI, LRCX, PYPL, QCOM, QRVO, NOW, SFM, TPC, URI, and YUMC.

With the FOMC not until afternoon and the government arguing over who gets what money and which politician gets the credit, it looks like earnings will drive any move prior to the Fed. And while the FOMC is not expected to make any policy moves, the market is waiting for either reassurance or a scare from Chair Powell's comments. So, while we will likely see volatility in spots, it would not be unexpected to see drift until 2pm. Also, remember that most Fed moves see a whipsaw 10-15 minutes after the initial move.

Keep an eye on those FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine” and follow the trend. Don’t try to predict reversals, don't chase moves that got away, and always take profits as you go.  Remember, trading is a job and we’re here to consistently make profits, not win the lottery.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NIO, GM, XLU, KR, HOG, YNDX, ZS, IYR, BAC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Earnings and Fed Watch on Tap Today

A quarter percent higher open led to a roller-coaster morning.  However, an afternoon rally saw markets close near their highs, particularly on strength from the mega-cap tech stocks.  The QQQ gained 1.78%, SPY gained 0.74%, and DIA gained 0.48%.  The VXX closed down to 29.34 and T2122 settled right on the edge of overbought territory at 80.08.  10-year bond yields rose a bit to 0.610% and Oil (WTI) also rose slightly to $41.61/barrel.  It’s also worth noting that gold soared to a record high of $1,931.50/oz.

Last evening INTC announced their head of Engineering (who was widely expected to be the next CEO) will leave the company next Monday.  No word on if or how this relates to INTC's announced engineering and manufacturing delays. Unrelated, but about the same time, T subsidiary Warner Brothers also announced that their widely-anticipated new high-budget film Tenet will be released internationally first and then a few weeks later in select US cities in an attempt to reduce virus impact. GOOG announced they are extending their work-from-home plan through at least July 2021.  Finally, MCD reported early this am with a 30% revenue drop and a same-store sales short-fall of just 2.3%.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,433,532 confirmed cases and 150,450 deaths.  With new cases falling to 61,571 and deaths down to 596, there are signs of plateauing again in at least the 3 worst-hit states (FL, TX, and AZ).  Better yet, PFE announced that they had started their phase 3 trial in conjunction with German biotech partner BNTX.  This was a timeline acceleration to avoid falling behind MRNA whose own phase 3 trials also began on Monday.  It will take a couple of weeks to enroll enough participants in either study and the preliminary results ought to be available as soon as the end of October.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 16,672,852 confirmed cases and 657,270 deaths.  The numbers are worrying.  However, the real issue of concern is that even the countries that actually acted fast and decisively, and seemingly had the virus under control, are now seeing a resurgence.  Among these are China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea.  The obvious question is if countries with extremely high mask compliance and fast, strict quarantines have trouble controlling this virus, what does that imply for much less compliant and much more economically-focused countries like the US?

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaning more to the green side. China, South Korea, and India all put up gains of over 1%.   Japan, Australian, and Thailand were the losers on the day, but not down as much as the winners were up.  In Europe, markets are much more on the red side so far in the day.  The moves are modest, but the red is broad-based with only Greece, Belgium, and the FTSE on the green side.  In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a gap lower a third of one percent at the open. 

The only major economic news for Tuesday is Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am).  However, there are a lot of major earnings with ABG, BEN, CMI, CNC, DHI, DTE, ECL, GLW, HOG, HUN, IVZ, LH, LW, MCD, MDC, MLM, MMM, MO, OMC, PFE, PII, ROP, RTX, SPGI, SHW, XRX, and ZBRA are all among those reporting before the open.  After the close, AMD, AFL, AKAM, AMGN, CAR, CB, CHRW, CE, CYH, EBAY, EIX, FTV, THG, JNPR, MDLZ, MRC, NCR, OKE, PKG, SBUX, SSNC, STX, UNM, and V all report.

Monday gave us morning indecision and an afternoon rally (perhaps on Fed hopes). However, nothing really changed in the trend or chart.  While it was a decent candle in the QQQ, we still did not print a Morning Star, the bullish trend remains in place, and there remains work ahead if bulls plan to push up through the top again. 

Today is a light day on planned news and may well be driven by earnings, hopeful vaccine news, and politicking over stimulus. However, we could also sit on our hands for a day waiting on reassurance from the Fed.  

Keep an eye on those FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.”  Follow the trend, don’t chase or predict reversals, and always take profits as you go.  Remember, trading is a job and we’re here to consistently make profits, not win the lottery.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: WU, XHB, COF, IBM, OIH, HAL, DFS, SLB, HPR, XLV, VXX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

A Lot of News and Earnings This Week

Markets gapped down Friday and then gave us indecision to end the week.  Both the SPY and DIA printed Doji and QQQ printed a White Spinning Top.  Only the SPY broke its uptrend line, but only the QQQ flipped its Volatility Stop (10. 1.5) from green to red.  For the day, the SPY lost 0.64%, the DIA lost 0.75% and the QQQ lost 0.95%.  VXX was also flat at 30.17 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 66.97.  10-year bond yield were flat at 0.587% and Oil (WTI) climbed slightly to $41.34/barrel.  For the week, we had indecisive trading that closed down a bit as once again the mega-cap tech names led markets by the nose all week.

This week has the potential to be the most news-filled of the summer (at least so far).  Republicans are expected to finally finish their relief plan so that negotiations can begin with Democrats, perhaps as soon as Monday.  Over the week, there will also be 1,200 major earnings reports released, including most of the huge FAANG stocks that truly drive market direction.  The CEOs of those FAANG stocks will also be testifying before Congress during an Antitrust hearing on Wednesday.  On that day, the Fed also ends its regular meeting and although no new announcements are expected, their statement and the Q/A will be important.  Lastly, on Thursday the first read of Q2 GDP will come out, giving us as idea how bad the economy crashed during the first belated shutdown.  On top of all this, we know virus and virus impact news will continue hot and heavy.

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported the big banks such as BAC, GS, and JPM now expect the EU’s economic recovery to be larger and faster than that of the US.  The overall theme is that leadership and fast action breed public confidence and the EU scores much better at this than the US.  Those experts point to July PMI data, where the EU PMIs handily beat analyst expectations, while the US PMI came in below expectations.  In the longer-term, the EU will also have much less debt to pay off.  The US has spent a bit more than $10 Trillion (so far) in combined fiscal and monetary stimulus (not including state spending).  By contrast, the supposedly socialist EU, with a 50% larger population, has spent a fourth of that number even including individual EU-member spending. The bottom line is that companies focused on EU markets may be favored over those that focus on US markets in the short to medium-term timeframes.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,371,992 confirmed cases and 149,852 deaths.  Over the weekend, the country saw the 7-day averages rise to 69,000 new cases and 937 new virus deaths. On Friday, MCD and CMG both also joined the long list of retailers now requiring all customers to wear masks.  Thankfully, TX and AZ saw a reduction in new reported cases.  However, this may be less a trend and more about the hurricane and normal weekend activities impacting numbers.

Globally, the numbers have reached 16,446,932 confirmed cases and 652,852 deaths.  It took just over 4 days for the world to go from 15 million to 16 million cases and that pace continues.  This came as new outbreaks were found in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Japan, Spain, Sweden, Romania, and Bulgaria.  The Chinese outbreak was the largest since the initial Wuhan eruption. The W.H.O. also reported rampant spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa.  Finally, Latin American has become the current epicenter with Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Chile now all among the top 8 most-infected countries.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but generally close to flat.  The exception was Thailand, where in addition to other news items, they are experiencing public demonstrations related to both government response and social problems.  (Not a great atmosphere in a country prone to military dictatorships.)  In Europe, markets are following Asia. The major bourses are all within a quarter percent on either side of flat so far today. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a gap higher of between a third (DIA) and one percent (QQQ) at the open. 

The only major economic news for Monday is June Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am).  However, Monday is the slow kickoff of an otherwise heavy week of earnings.  Before the bell Monday, we'll get reports from AVY, CX, EQT, HAS, RPM, and SAP (SAP announced a spinoff IPO of a division as well).  After the close, AMKR, BRO, CINF, FIX, CR, EHC, FFIV, NOV, NXPI, OMF, PFG, TFII, and UHS report.

Friday gave us indecisive follow-through to Thursday’s ugly candles, but the uptrend has not been broken and we have potential support below.  So, the fight is still on between the bulls and bears in the short-term.  We have a lot of news coming this week, which leaves open the possibility of either a lot of volatility or a flat market too overwhelmed by conflicting news to make a move. 

That said, remember that the market has only paid attention to good news for months now. The point is we may see a pause to get more assurance, but the lean is definitely still in the bulls favor.  So, watch those FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coal mine,” but follow the trend.  Don’t chase or predict reversals, and always take profits as you go.  Remember, consistent singles and doubles win championships, not occasional home runs.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: BBY, LULU, AA, FDX, WEN, KO, TGT, TCOM, DNKG. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Earnings, Virus and US-China Stories Lead

Markets gapped down slightly Thursday on worse than expected Initial Jobless Claims (1.4mil vs. 1.3mil expected).  However, prices bobbed around flat until Noon, when a strong selloff took us to the lows where prices remained the rest of the day.  All 3 major indices put in ugly black candles but did manage to close up off the lows a bit.  So, despite the bad day, the bullish trend was not broken.  On the day SPY lost 1.19%, DIA lost 1.22%, and QQQ lost 2.61% as the mega-cap tech names led markets lower.  The VXX closed up to 30.07 and T2122 fell a bit to 89.47, which is still well into overbought territory.  10-year bond yields fell again as money chased bond safety, closing at 0.577%.  Oil (WTI) was also down, closing at $41.06/barrel.

The GOP continues to haggle over their stimulus proposal.  Late Thursday Senate Majority Leader McConnell said Senate Republicans will release their plan sometime next week.  The Republican plan is expected to be in the $1-1.5 Trillion range and the Democratic plan proposed $3.5 Trillion.  So, we’d expect the final number to be in-between the two extremes.

After the close, INTC beat on the top and bottom lines, but guided down for Q3 and announced yet another delay in their next-generation chips (which is already a couple years behind schedule and had been planned for a release 2021).  INTC now plan for that 7nm chip release to be in late 2022 or even 2023.  (INTC still uses 14nm and competitor AMD has been shipping 7nm chips since 2019.) After-hours, INTC stock was hammered and AMD was up by about the same amount that INTC was down.

In the very suspiciously-timed US-China relations story, the Trump Administration continued to ramp up the “good guy vs. bad guy” theme in yet another scathing speech overnight by Sec. of State Pompeo.  Of course, as promised, China retaliated over the US closing the Chinese Houston Consulate by forcing the closure of the US Chengdu consulate.  Asian and European markets reacted poorly to these escalations, which traders fear could lead to another trade war.

On the COVID story, in the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,170,333 confirmed cases and 147,342 deaths.  The country saw just over 69,100 new cases and 1,150 new virus deaths on Thursday.  DIS also announced it is pushing back the release of several major movie franchises for a year over virus fears.  These include Mulan, Star Wars, and Avatar.  Not coincidentally, AMC theatres also have pushed back their reopening until at least mid-Aug. in light of the current surge in cases nationwide. 

Globally, the number of cases has reached 15,684,371 confirmed cases and 637,222 deaths.  Brazil had its second-highest number of cases Thursday as the outbreak continues in that country.  Cases in that South American country have tripled in the last 30 days.  A little further North, China offered Latin American and Caribbean countries a $1 billion low-interest loan to help them finance the purchase of a Covid-19 vaccine.  In Asia, both India and Japan again reported their highest number of daily infections on Thursday.

Overnight, Asian markets were down on the US-China tensions.  Prices were off significantly across the board, but Shanghai (-3.86%) and Shenzhen (-5.00%) took the hardest hit.  In Europe, a similar case is taking shape.  All the European bourses are down significantly, with the sole exception of Russia, which is just on the green side of flat so far today. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a modest gap lower of about three-tenths of a percent with the exception of the QQQ which is looking at three-quarters of a percent gap down.  

The major economic news for Friday includes July Mfg. PMI and July Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) as well as June New Home Sales (10 am).  Major earnings releases include AXP, BLMN, FMX, HON, NEE, SLB, and VZ all before the open.

Thursday’s ugly candles still managed to maintain the uptrend, but we are right there.  So, it will be important to see whether the bears can get some follow-through or the bulls can bounce us up off trend and back into the green for the week.   Continue to expect volatility as virus news, stimulus rumors, earnings, and the US-China stories are all likely to make headlines today.

As Swing Traders, all we can do is watch the chart and follow the trend.  Remember to keep an eye on those FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.”  Remain focused on short-term charts and don’t chase, don’t predict, and always take profits as you go.  In earnings season, be wary of both reactions and re-reactions.  And don’t forget it’s Friday.  So take some profits and be prepared to weather the weekend news cycles.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: LABD, XLF, XOP, ITB, XHB, XLE, XLI, XLB, XRT, VXX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stimulus, Earnings, and Virus Top Agenda

We saw a gap down in the large caps and a small gap up in the QQQ on Wednesday.  However, most of the day was a rollercoaster until a late-afternoon rally closed markets near their highs.  This gave us a Bull Engulfing candle in the SPY and DIA as well as a Bullish Doji Harami in the QQQ.  On the day SPY gained 0.56%, DIA gained 0.63%, and QQQ gained 0.35%.  VXX was down a tad to 29.16 and the T2122 4-week High/Low Ratio remained deep in over-bought territory at 94.80.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.599% and Oil (WTI) was flat, closing at $41.89.

The GOP continued to haggle over what their own proposal for the next stimulus bill will be, but they appear to be making progress. Among the key areas of disagreement is whether (and how) to extend “enhanced unemployment insurance.” There are GOP camps fighting for $400/week, $200/week, and $100/week as well as some who want to drop it altogether.  Still, the Senate Republicans announced overnight that they have reached a “fundamental agreement” on the basics on their side of the table. (Reportedly a $1 Trillion bill proposal.) So, now negotiations with the Democrats (whose own $3.5 Trillion proposal has been in place since May) can now actually get in gear. (As mentioned yesterday, Congress is not going to want to hang around DC long since most of them want to go home for politicking.)

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,101,308 confirmed cases and 146,192 deaths.  The country saw just under 72,000 new cases and a little over 1,200 new virus deaths on Wednesday.  CA also surpassed NY for the dubious honor of becoming the state with the most confirmed cases to date. IN, MN, OH, and Washington DC all joined the group of states ordering a statewide mask mandate in lieu of a Federal mandate.  The head of FEMA also told CNBC that the Federal Government still does not have enough PPE gear and his agency as well as the states are still aggressively trying to buy more.  He said that due to logistics issues and overall short supply, it is possible that virus hot-spots could run out on a temporary basis, but the continue to work on it.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 15,405,069 confirmed cases and 631,015 deaths.  Brazil reported a record of almost 68,000 new cases Wednesday, days after the WHO had said new cases had reached a plateau.  India’s exponential growth curve for new cases continues.  In Tokyo, they also saw a new record-high number of cases today, although the Japanese number is hardly worth mentioning in comparison to Brazil or the US.  South Korea also announced Thursday that it has fallen into a technical recession as of Q2 due to the virus.  Australia had said overnight that the virus had shrunk its GDP by 5%.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed and showed a move of less than a percent both directions.  China, Japan, and Korea were down while Hong Kong and Australia were up.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but also broadly “modestly green” with just a few stragglers so far today.  In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a modest gap higher of about a third of a percent with the exception of the QQQ which is looking at three-quarters of a percent gap higher. 

The only major economic news for Thursday is Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am).  However, once again there are a massive number of major earnings reports, including AAL, AB, ADP, ADS, ALK, ALLE, AN, BX, CVE, CTAS, CTXS, DGX, DHR, DOW, FAF, FITB, FCX, GWW, HBAN, HSY, KMB, MTB, MTRN, NUE, ORI, PHM, PNR, POOL, RS, T, TECK, TSCO, TRV, TWTR, UNP, and WSO.  Then after the close ETFC, EW, FE, INTC, RHI, SKX, SWKS, and SIVB report.

Wednesday’s rollercoaster and late-day rally did nothing to break the bullish trend.  We should expect volatility to continue as virus news remains bad (but bulls will see only the rosy scenario) and stimulus negotiations are now beginning.  However, earnings news continued to be generally good as of last night (against extremely reduced expectations) and there will be more of that this in morning’s reports.  US-China relations remain the wild-card since the ball is in China's court at the moment.  

In this sort of environment, all we can do is watch the short-term chart and follow the trend.  Remember to keep an eye on those FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.”  Remain focused on your trades and don’t chase, don’t predict, and always take profits as you go.  Also remember that in earnings season, we should be wary of both reactions and re-reactions.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: AMD, NVAX, GDOT, WU, ABT, COF, MA, XRT, ALGN, CVX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stimulus Plan Haggling and China

Markets gapped strongly higher at the open Tuesday on the EU recovery deal, general recovery optimism, and good earnings.  However, the huge tech names sold off immediately, and the rest of the market could not fight that wave, finally following suit in the afternoon.  The QQQ closed down 1.04%, but the large-caps eked out gains as SPY closed up 0.18% and DIA closed up 0.57%.  The VXX was flat at 29.48 and T2122 climbed all the way to the top of overbought territory at 96.49.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.604% and Oil (WTI) climbed 2% to $41.76/barrel.

Republicans met and began cobbling together their proposal for the next stimulus bill, a necessary precursor for the start of negotiations with Democrats (whose plan has been passed and, on the table, since May).  As of Tuesday, the GOP has agreed amongst themselves that businesses need more PPP loans, other grants, and liability protection at a minimum. They also will ask for $105 billion for schools.  However, the Payroll Tax Cut that the President demanded didn’t appear to make the list since it is being opposed by even some Republicans.  Later, House Minority Leader McCarthy told CNBC he does not expect a final deal to be negotiated and passed until August.  Still, Congress will want to adjourn again and get back home to begin their reelection campaigns.  So, early August is probably as late as it will be allowed to go.

The other major storyline overnight is the ratcheting up of trade tensions with China.  This may be a legitimate confrontation about the activity or something that would always be legitimate but is done now for unrelated purposes.  In any event, the US charged (in absentia) 2 Chinese men for hacking and attempted (but unsuccessful) theft of medical data. The US also abruptly forced the closure of the Chinese Consulate located in Houston.  The Chinese have vowed retaliation for both through their state-run media.  Regardless of the true reasons behind these moves or their validity, it does stir up fear of another round of trade war.

In a one-off story snuck out overnight, Citadel Securities announced it has agreed to be was fined by FINRA for front-running client orders in a settlement agreed July 16, but announced in a Tuesday press release.  The fine was a paltry $700,000. However, this case had been dragged out so long that the activity covered dates from way back in 2012-2014.  So, apparently it pays to hire top FINRA and SEC officials as your General Counsel as Citadel had done.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,028,733 confirmed cases and 144,958 deaths.  This includes 67,000 new cases Tuesday.  TX and FL continue to report record-high 7-day average new deaths.  However, at least for the first time in over a week, FL reported under 10,000 new cases with 9,400).  LA Governor Edwards announced Tuesday the state will remain in phase 2 of reopening for at least another 2 weeks (rather than move to phase 3 on Friday as previously scheduled).  On the business side there was good news as BBY announced that sales are returning (up about 2.5% in Q2) and they have brought back about half of the employees furloughed in April. 

Globally, the number of cases has reached 15,120,686 confirmed cases and 620,263 deaths.  Asia is again becoming a hot spot.  For example, India continues to see a surge as they reported over 39,000 new cases on the day in their very underwhelming testing program (given their huge population).  The outbreak in Australia also continues, especially in its two largest states.  Japan also is back near their record-high in cases although the last 2 examples are tiny relative to US numbers, due to the tiny Australian population and Japan’s overwhelming acceptance of mask-wearing.  Closer to home, Mexico surpassed 40,000 deaths as their 7-day average of new cases also sits at an all-time high.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the red with the exception of China and Taiwan, which were mildly green.  These moves came mostly in response to trade fears.  The same is true in Europe, with only Russia above break-even (barely) at this point in their day.  In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a modest gap lower of about a quarter percent. 

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to June Existing Home Sales (10 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  The major earnings reports on the day include ABB, APH, BIIB, BKR, CP, CSTM, DOV, HCA, IQV, KEY, KNX, LAD, NQAD, NTRS, NVR, RCI, SLGN, and TMO before the open.  Then after the close, CMG, CSX, EFX, KMI, LSTR, LVS, MSFT, MTH, PLXS, RJF, RUSHA, SU, TRN, TSLA, UFPI, and WHR.

Tuesday’s fading of the gap higher did nothing to break trend.  We simply printed a black candle in an uptrend.  The sentiment drivers are likely to be earnings (since we are in silly season), stimulus bill negotiations, and US-China relations.  Remember to watch those FAANG stocks as they proved again yesterday that it’s very hard for the market to buck any move they make as a group.  Remain focused on short-term charts and don’t chase, don’t predict, and always take profits as you go.  In earnings season, be wary of both reactions and re-reactions.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NBL, CWH, WDC, PENN, OIH, AIG, XOP, WFC, DKNG, X, MRO, SLB. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

EU Deal and KO Beat Lead News

Markets opened flat Monday and after a few minutes of pullback, the bulls stepped in and rallied all day long.  The big tech stocks led the way as TSLA was up 9.47% and AMZN was up 7.93%.  Initial vaccine test news out of the UK also led to optimism.  The DIA was the outlier, printing another indecisive Doji.  However, QQQ and SPY both printed strong Bullish candles coming off last week’s consolidation.  At the close, SPY was up 0.81%, DIA was up 0.03%, and QQQ was up 2.84% (a new all-time high close).  The VXX fell back below 30 to 29.23 and T2122 fell out of overbought territory to 70.18.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.613% and Oil (WTI) was flat, closing at $40.69/barrel.

The EU finally reached a deal on a recovery plan last night.  The $860 billion plan includes 52% of the money distributed as grants to the 27 member countries and the remaining 48% will be given out as loans.  They will fund the plan through EU-backed bonds that will stop being printed in 2026 and will be paid off by 2058.  They also announced that they will need additional taxes to repay those bonds. The new taxes will include a carbon tax and a non-recyclable waste tax.  Quite a contrast to US governance.

Several businesses announced layoffs or buyouts.  Among them are LinkedIn, who will cut 6% of their workforce.  LUV also announced that 17,000 employees had volunteered for early retirement or contract buyouts.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 3,961,805 confirmed cases and 143,864 deaths.  The good news is that daily new cases fell below 63,000 Monday for the first time in over a week.  The bad news is that deaths ticked up on the day, but still below the 7-day average.  So far, only 28 states have listened to experts and instituted state-wide mask mandates.  However, several others have partial mandates or municipal-level mask orders in place. The rest can’t bear the idea of government mandates, even if they believe wearing a mask is in the public good. (I’m unsure whether the freer states also have looser laws on public nudity or driving without a seatbelt. lol) However, for traders the impactful issue is that in the absence of mandates it becomes retailers and restaurants that must enforce a mask rule and that will continue to generate bad press or at least hurt feelings among some former/potential customers.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 14,881,625 confirmed cases and 613,996 deaths.  In Spain, a new outbreak has occurred in a traditional summer holiday region (including Barcelona).  No new lockdown has been ordered, but the public has been “urged to stay home.”  Meanwhile, the UK reported a 4.5% drop in real wages for Q2.  This was the largest drop since the 1970s oil crisis according to a report from Resolution Foundation in London.  Real Wages or Standard of Living is a measure of disposable income and the drop considers lost wages as well as price inflation.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  The strongest showing was made in Hong Kong and Australia, but the rally was broad-based.  The same is true in Europe, where the recovery plan deal (after 5 days of heated negotiation) lifted market expectations.  In the US, as of 7:45am futures are pointing to a gap higher of 0.7%-0.9% on Monday evening’s IBM beat and Tuesday Morning’s KO beat. 

There is no major economic news for Tuesday.  The major earnings reports on the day include CIT, CMA, GPK, KO, LMT, MUSA, NVS, PCAR, PLD, PM, SNV, SYF, and UBS all before the open.  Then after the close AGR, AMTD, COF, CNI, CSL, IBKR, ISRG, NAVI, SUM, TER, TXN, UAL, and WRB all report.

Monday’s rally has bulls off and running this week.  However, it is possible we drift until a deal is reached on the next US stimulus (recovery) bill being negotiated this week. Keep an eye on those FAANG stocks that have been the market’s “canary in the coalmine.”  They clearly signaled yesterday’s rally and it would be very hard for the market to fight them if they all go one direction.  Remain focused on short-term charts and don’t chase, don’t predict, and always take profits as you go.  Remember we are in earnings season now, so some surprises are likely to happen…plus usually every initial reaction is met with an “on second thought” re-reaction.  So be nimble.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: MS, NIO, FVRR, ROKU, PINS, KR, SNAP, ETSY, UBER, MU. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Virus News, Stimulus and Earnings on Tap

Markets gave us the epitome of “the summer blahs” Friday, essentially treading water in an indecisive day of trading.  The SPY and QQQ gave us small gaps higher and the DIA a small gap lower at the open.  The SPY and QQQ then printed Doji candles while the DIA printed a small Bearish Engulfing of a Doji.  At the close, SPY was up 0.29%, DIA down 0.27%, and QQQ up 0.12%.  The VXX fell to 30.62 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) fell a bit to 94.00, which is still deep into the over-bought territory. 10-year bond yield rose slightly to 0.623% and Oil (WTI) closed down a tad to $40.57/barrel.

Treasury Sec. Mnuchin told Congress Friday they should forgive all small business PPP loans (regardless how the money was used), though he did acknowledge some measure of fraud prevention would be needed.  He didn’t specify how he defines “small business” and as of his testimony, there were still over $132 billion of PPP funds approved that had not been requested.  Nonetheless, Mnuchin also recommended a second round of PPP loans (companies allowed to take a second loan).  In separate testimony, former Fed Chair Yellen told Congress she is extremely worried that if extended unemployment was not renewed, it could be a catastrophe for the economy.  Sunday White House Chief of Staff Meadows said that real negotiation of the next virus stimulus bill will begin Monday.

After the close Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Q2 saw the greatest jump in average weekly earnings in the country’s history (a 10% increase in one quarter).  While this seems like good news, experts say it is actually misleading.  They say this was bad news, because it reflects that high salary workers were being retained while a much larger percentage of the hourly workforce and low-level salaried employees were let go.  It’s unclear to me how this is different than any other point in time as the supposed high-value employees are always first hired, last fired while by definition the lower-cost workers are often an after-thought to businesses.  So, I don’t know if I agree with analysts. You decide.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 3,898,639 confirmed cases and 143,289 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases is almost 68,000 and the 7-day average of virus deaths is just under 800 as of Sunday.  And while 38 states have 7-day average new cases that increased by at least 10% week-on-week during most of last week, as of Sunday we are down to 32 rising at least that much, with 10 states now neither rising nor falling by at least 10% and 2 states are down more than 10%.  Also, so far at least, hospitalizations have not yet exceeded the April peak.  The only caveat with that good news is that hospitalizations tend to lag infections by 3 weeks and deaths tend to lag another 1-2 weeks. 

Globally, the number of cases has reached 14,668,298 confirmed cases and 609,511 deaths. The UK reported that their economy recovered much less than was expected in May as their easing got underway.  The UK GDP grew 1.8% for the month versus a consensus expectation of 5.5% growth.  In China, supply chain issues (such as filling orders for PPE gear) are being caused by massive flooding across their nation.  The flooding has exacerbated already jammed transportation infrastructure (such as ports) that have yet to recover from the backlogs caused by Feb.-Mar. shutdowns.  In the EU, 3 days of negotiation over a stimulus package details and a 5-year budget have yet to produce a deal. In fact, negotiations are heated with multiple "table pounding" arguments reported. (That makes an interesting dichotomy with the US. The supposedly socialist Europeans are fighting tooth-and-nail over taxing and spending $850 billion (with a population of 450 million people), while the supposedly capitalist US has had no trouble at all spending trillions and trillions of dollars (so far) with 330 million people.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with China up strongly, India up modestly, Japan and South Korea flat and the rest of the region in the red.  Europe is also mixed, but leans toward the green and is also little-moved so far.  The FTSE is down 0.54%, DAX up 0.31%, and CAC down 0.21% at mid-day. The rest of the continent is mixed, but leaning green.  In the US, as of 7:30am futures are flat, just on either side of break-even. 

There is no major economic news for Monday.  The major earnings reports on the day include CALM, HAL, LII, and MAN before the open as well as CCK, CDNS, IBM, LOGI, STLD, and ZION after the close.

Friday’s candles were indecisive for the third day in a row with neither the bulls nor the bears gaining traction.  Expect more volatility as virus news helps the bears, vaccine hope/speculation helps the bulls, and stimulus negotiations could go either way.  Keep an eye on those FAANG stocks that have been the market’s “canary in the coalmine.”   Remain focused on short-term charts and don’t chase, don’t predict, and always take profits as you go.  Remember we are in earnings season now, so some surprises are likely to happen…plus usually every initial reaction is met with an “on second thought” re-reaction.  So be nimble.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CSCO, HD, GLD, AZN, OSTK, GPN, INTC, SLV, IAG. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don't forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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