Bulls Looking to Start Week With Gap Up

On Friday, markets opened within a half of one percent of the Thursday close.  Stocks then ran higher for half an hour and back down for an hour to the lows of the day.  The rest of the session was spent waffling back and forth between those extremes.  As we headed into the long weekend, this has left us with indecisive, Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices.  The QQQ version was also a bullish Harami candle.  The biggest move on the day was made by the QQQ indice with the Energy sector far and away the weakest sector with Technology and Consumer Cyclicals leading the gains.  The VXX fell almost 3% to 24.66 and T2122 climbed, but markets remain deeply oversold at 3.66.   10-year bond yields fell sharply to 3.231% and Oil (WTI) got crushed, being down more than 6.5% to $109.85/barrel at day end.

In AMZN news, the New York Times reported an internal AMZN memo.  The memo said the company faces a massive national hiring and retention crisis.  For example, the memo said AMZN Phoenix AZ warehouses have already exhausted the entire “community employee candidate pool” due to massive turnover.  (There are no more people in the Phoenix area who either do not already work for AMZN or who would consider taking (or retaking) a job in an AMZN warehouse.)  So, the facility must either drop standards (eliminating drug and criminal checks), go understaffed, pay to bring in candidates from far away, or find ways to streamline and/or replace workers with robots.  The memo went on to say they project that Central CA (serving the LA region) warehouses will reach that level of labor emergency by year-end.  In addition, and more ominously, the memo said the company will face the same situation nationwide across the AMZN warehouse network by 2024.  The metric given in the memo is that the Amazon warehouses are facing a staggering 3% PER WEEK workforce attrition rate in their warehouses.

In other business news, thousands of US-originating flights were canceled over the weekend as airlines cite labor shortages. Among the airlines impacted, AAL canceled 28% of its flights, DAL canceled 26%, UAL canceled 22%, and LUV canceled 37% of its flights over the weekend.  This follows a similar situation with thousands of canceled flights on Memorial Day weekend.  The bottom line is that it appears US airlines are not going to be able to capitalize on the summer (heaviest) travel season again this year.  Elsewhere, employees of a Maryland AAPL store have voted to unionize.  While only a tiny portion of the overall AAPL workforce unionized, this is the first crack in the dam and the first loss since the company started spending considerable time and money to defeat union votes in other stores (such as Atlanta).

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In cryptocurrency news, all major coins continued their fall this weekend.  On Saturday, Bitcoin briefly fell below $17,750 and Ethereum fell below $900. That represents a 75% fall from the November highs for Bitcoin.  For Ethereum, the carnage is even worse as it has fallen 82% from its own high (also reached in November 2021).  CNBC also reported that a $10 billion Crypto hedge fund (Three Arrows Capital) is on the brink of insolvency.  This has resulted in panic selling by even the crypto die-hards and many supposedly hard-core “keep government out” industry leaders to calling for government regulation (and a government agency responsible for maintaining market liquidity).

In technical analysis news, the S&P500 posted its 10th down week in the last 11.  As a result (and as pointed out by a member of the HRC Trading Room), only 10 of the 502 tickers (1.9%) in the S&P500 are currently above their 50sma.  At the same time, 191 of 502 are trading at their 52-week low, including META, INTC, BAC, JPM, QCOM, HD, MU, ADBE, DIS, CMCSA, TXN, WFC, LOW, AMAT, F, TGT, GS, LRCX, ABT, and MS among others.  There are no members of the S&P500 trading at 52-week highs.

On the Russia story, on Saturday the CEO of Russian oil giant Rosneft (Sechin) told the press that BP remains it’s the company’s largest private shareholder (the Russian government owns a majority). In addition, he said BP has expressed a desire to remain an active participant in Rosneft projects.  In Germany, in an attempt to get ahead of next winter, the government has fast-tracked and utilities are now in the process of reopening coal-fueled electricity generation plants. This will allow the country to refill all its natural gas storage tanks before winter.  Germany, Poland, Italy, Austria, and Slovakia have all reported 40% reductions in gas shipments from Russia…reportedly due to “technical problems,” but clearly in retaliation over the EU sanctions and providing of weapons to Ukraine.  On the ground, the cities of Kharkiv (Northeast) and Mykolaiv (South) are under intense shelling again today as Russia continues its scorched earth approach to its land seizure campaign.  Meanwhile, in previously captured Mariupol the city’s Mayor reports that 100,000 people still have no access to drinking water, gas, electricity, or even sewage drainage.  Russia does provide some water once per week but is even restricting access to food in an effort to drive people to move to a Russian camp (former prison camp).

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly solidly green.  The lone exceptions were mainland China where Shenzhen (-0.51%) and Shanghai (-0.26%) lagged.  Taiwan (+2.35%), Hong Kong (+1.87%), and Japan (+1.84%) paced the gains.  In Europe, a similar story is taking shape at mid-day.  Only Russia (-1.08%) and Portugal (-0.81%) are in the red.  Meanwhile, the FTSE (+0.67%), DAX (+0.81%), and CAC (+1.18%) are headed higher with most smaller exchanges leading the way.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a strong gap higher early.  The SIA implies a +1.51% open, the SPY is implying a +1.66% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.66% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 3.284% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.75% to $109.88/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Tuesday are limited to May Existing Home Sales (10 am).  There are no major earnings scheduled for the day.

In economic news coming later this week, on Wednesday Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress.  On Thursday we get Q1 Current Accounts, Weekly Jobless Claims, Mfg. PMI, Services PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Bank Stress Test Results, and Fed Chair Powell testifies again.  Finally, on Friday, we get Michigan Consumer Expectations and May New Home Sales.

On the earnings front, this is another very slow week.  On Wednesday, we hear from KFY, WGO, FUL, KBH, SCS, and WOR.  Then on Thursday, CAN, DRI, FDS, GMS, RAD, and FDX.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from KMX and CCL.

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Beware of chasing gaps. After a brutal week and a 3-day weekend to recover, traders look to be gapping the market higher at the open. However, whipsaw action has been the hallmark of markets lately and nothing material has changed since last week. The trend remains strongly bearish and we remain well oversold. If you just can’t help yourself from going long, be sure you are focused, hedged, and/or small. You will need to be quick. Remember, feeling better after an extra day off is no reason to start picking bottoms.

Trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Wait for confirmation. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Lastly, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Market Rethinks Fed and Recession Risk

Markets gapped 0.75% – 1.25% higher at the open as traders waited on the Fed.  After the gap, stocks just rollercoastered sideways in a fairly tight range until 2 pm. However, as usual, when the Fed announced its decisions, we saw wide-ranging candles and heavy whiplash action printing new highs and hew lows on the day during the last 2 hours.  Overall, all 3 major indices are printing indecisive Spinning Top candles, just trying to relieve the overextension we’ve had from the T-line and in terms of the 4-week New High/Low Ratio.  Nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology leading the way and Energy in the red on a risk-on session.  On the day, SPY gained 1.40%, DIA gained 0.96%, and QQQ gained 2.50%.  The VXX fell 5.4% to 23.97 and T2122 climbed, but still remains in the oversold territory at 12.00.  10-year bond yields dropped sharply to 3.288% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.6% to $115.84/barrel.

During the afternoon, the Fed raised rates by 0.75% (the largest hike since 1994) to a new range of 1.5%-1.75%, the highest level since before the pandemic.  The Fed also announced its “Dot Plot” where individual FOMC members on average now think the year will end with that benchmark rate at 3.4% (up 1.5% from their forecast in March).  In addition, they cut their GDP growth forecast to +1.7% for the year (down from +2.8% in March).  Fed Chair Powell said that he does not expect 75 basis point hikes to become common, but he does expect a 50-75 basis point hike in July.  The committee also sees unemployment (now 3.6%) moving up to 4.1% by 2024, which is not much of an increase (low-ball estimate?) given the demand destruction that needs to take place to get inflation down to the +2% target.

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In global economic news, at an emergency meeting Wednesday the ECB announced a plan to reduce the borrowing costs of the Euro Zone’s most indebted countries.  (The term they used was “avoiding fragmentation,” but they were referring to the spread in interest rates between Germany and lower-rated countries like Italy and Greece.)  The new scheme plans to cap borrowing costs by buying the bonds themselves under loose (as yet undecided) criteria.  Then overnight, the Bank of England raised UK interest rates for the 5th consecutive meeting, again moving 0.25%. This came as the UK central bank also announced that the UK economy is shrinking (falling 0.1% in March and 0.3% in April). So, the UK is now clearly dealing with stagflation as inflation is a bit over 11% and they are also experiencing a falling GDP. The British Pound fell 0.80% against the dollar after the announcement.

Elsewhere abroad, Reuters reported after the close that the WTO is considering e-commerce tariffs.  There has been a moratorium on such tariffs in place since 1998, but nations such as India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and South Africa are threatening to block another extension of the moratorium with those countries now forgoing tens of billions of dollars in revenue annually as a result of that moratorium.

On the Russia story, President Biden announced another $1 billion in humanitarian and military aid for Ukraine. Among the weapons in this tranche are 155mm howitzer shells (made by GD), HiMARS rockets (made by LM), and trucks to tow 155mm howitzers (made by OSK).  Elsewhere, Russia reduced the flow of natural gas through its pipeline to Europe again, bringing the total reduction to 60%.  Gazprom said it was doing so in retaliation over Canadian sanctions preventing SMNEY (Siemens Energy) from delivering overhauled equipment.  So, overnight Germany’s Economy Minister Habeck urged all homes and businesses to scale-back natural gas usage with the specter of rationing ahead (not to mention that natural gas prices have spiked 35% in Germany this week due to the supply reduction). All of this is pressuring the Western alliance against Russia as France has already begun talking about Ukraine’s need to compromise (give up land) with Russia eventually and Germany and Italy are slow-playing providing the arms they promised Ukraine. At the same time, the US, UK, and former Soviet satellite states now in NATO are standing strong.

So far this morning, CMC and JBL have both reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  KR reports at 8 am.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the downside.  Hong Kong (-2.17%), India (-2.11%), and Thailand (-2.04%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, Malaysia (+0.94%) and Japan (+0.40%) led the gainers with a handful of other exchanges only modestly in the green.  In Europe, with the exception of Russia, stocks are deeply in the red across the board at mid-day.  The FTSE (-2.44%), DAX (-2.93%), and CAC (-2.44%) lead the way on trading volume with many smaller exchanges making bigger moves down in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a significant gap lower after rethinking the Fed announcements overnight.  The DIA is implying a -1.82% open, the SPY implies a -2.25% open, and the QQQ is implying a -2.65% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have spiked back up to 3.45% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.25% to $113.88/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Thursday include May Building Permits, May Housing Starts, Weekly Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am).  The major earnings scheduled before the open are CMC, JBL, and KR.  Then, after the close, we get a report from ADBE.

In economic news coming Friday, we get May Industrial Production and hear from Fed Chair Powell again.  Friday is also a Quadruple-witching day as well as the last day before a 3-day weekend.

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After the Fed’s (expected) rate hike on Wednesday, as usual, the market has had a night to rethink Chair Powell’s words. In hindsight, it appears the market is now going to put more weight on the probability of a recession after Powell said the landing may be bumpier than previously expected during his presser. Therefore we are staring at a gap down open and bond rates continue to show high volatility as they trend higher. Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Mfg. Index may have some sway on markets, especially if they report unexpected numbers. However, the main driver traders need to watch is the repricing of stocks based on an increased likelihood of recession sometime in the next 12 months.

The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Wait for confirmation. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VMC, CAG, TSN, CF, XLE, M, ON. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Today is All About The Fed

On Tuesday the PPI came in a bit down from last month (but still 10.8% on an annual basis) and as a result, the premarket rally faded a bit.  Markets still gapped between a quarter of a percent and three-quarters of a percent higher at the open.  All 3 major indices then whipsawed back and forth all day.  This left us with black-bodied Spinning Top candles in all 3 of those indices.  It is worth noting the volume dropped back to normal or slightly below normal across all major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.30%, DIA lost 0.42%, and QQQ managed to eke out a gain of 0.18%.  The VXX fell just under 2% to 25.33 and T2122 climbed slightly to 2.22.  10-year bond yields climbed to 3.479% and Oil (WTI) fell to $118.51/barrel.

Traders are now fully expecting the Fed to raise rates by three-quarters of a percent at 2 pm.  Bond yields are incredible turmoil as the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds now all yield more than the 30-year (all are inverted).  In fact, the 5-year is the highest yield of those four T-bills.  So, we also have a 5-yr vs 10-yr inversion.

After the close, ASTL missed on revenue by almost 23%, yet still managed to beat on earnings.  Also after the close, MNST announced an increase of $500 million in its share buyback plan ($157 million also remains unspent in its previously-authorized buyback program). 

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In cryptocurrency news, COIN announced they are letting 18% of their workforce go.  This comes on top of the recent Luna stablecoin failure and other stablecoins losing parity with the dollar.  Bitcoin fell another 7% and is now in the $21,500 area (down 55% on the year) and fell another $1,000 overnight to $20,500.  The second-largest cryptocurrency (Ethereum) is down even more, now at $1,178 which is down 69% on the year.

30-year, conforming mortgage rates surged to 6.28%.  This is a dramatic rise as the rate was 5.55% just a week ago.  As a result, on a $400,000 home, the mortgage payment (without insurance or property taxes) climbed to $1,976/month, a 41% increase on the year.  Of course, this spike has killed mortgage demand with total mortgage applications down 53% from the same week one year ago. 

On the earnings front, this is a very slow week.  On Thursday we get reports from KR, CMC, JBL, and ADBE.  There are no earnings reports on Friday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned red with China up and the rest of the region down.  Hong Kong (+1.14%), Shenzhen (+0.95%), and Shanghai (+0.50%) were the only green in the region with South Korea (-1.83%), Malaysia (-1.50%), and Japan (-1.14%) pacing the losses.  However, in Europe, stocks are nearly green across the board.  Only Norway (-0.64%) is in the red with the FTSE (+1.13%), DAX (+1.13%), and CAC (+1.06%) leading the region higher.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a moderate gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.49% open, the SPY is implying a +0.63% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.85% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have plummeted back to 3.36% and Oil (WTI) is down half of a percent to $118.33/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Wednesday include May Retail Sales, May Import/Export Price Indexes, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), April Business Inventories (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Q2 Fed Interest Rate Projections, Fed Rate Decision, and Fed Statement (all at 2 pm), and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 pm).  There are no major earnings scheduled for the day.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we see May Building Permits, May Housing Starts, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Finally, on Friday we get May Industrial Production and hear from Fed Chair Powell again.

LTA Scanning Software

Today will be all about the reaction to the Fed decision and press conference. Although the market has priced in a 0.75% rate hike today, the dot plot (interest rate projections), statement, and especially what Fed Chair Powell says and how he replies to questions are likely to cause major volatility. Be extremely careful trying to react quickly to the news. The market will likely whipsaw this afternoon and again in the morning as traders overreact, overcompensate again, and then finally whip back after thinking on it overnight. The point is, that there is no need to be in a hurry.

The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Wait for confirmation. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TWTR, TTWO, NIO, VIPS, BKSY, TME, UVXY, ABCL, SQQQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

PPI Looms as CNBC Says 3/4 Hike Likely

On Monday, the bears delivered a huge (2.2% – 3%) gap-down following Friday’s ugly gap-down black candle.  We then saw bearish follow-through (of the gap) that reached the lows at about 11 am. From that point, we saw whipsaw action back and forth between the gap and the morning lows, before heading South to new lows late in the afternoon.  This has left us with large gap-down Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices. This all happened on greater the average volume.  All 10 sectors were bright red, with “growth sectors” like Consumer Cyclicals, Basic Materials, and Technology taking the biggest hits. 

The 3 major indices are all now trading well below previous 52-Week Lows, but are also still 4%-8% above their rising 200sma.  All 3 are also far below their T-line, meaning we may well see at least a bounce soon.  On the day, SPY lost 3.83%, DIA lost 2.78%, and QQQ lost 4.65%.  The VXX spiked 10.24% to 25.72 and T2122 shows us deep in the oversold territory at 1.67.  10-year bond yields absolutely screamed higher to 3.366% and Oil (WTI) gained slightly after being down 2% early in the day, closing at $120.86/barrel.

The big fear Monday was that high inflation (as typified by a much hotter than expected CPI on Friday) will lead to a three-quarter or even one-percent rate hike on Wednesday.  This caused bond rates to spike, stocks to gap down and follow-through, and even crypto to selloff.  Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly said he has a strong preference for only multiple half-percent rate hikes in the past.  However, during the afternoon, the Wall Street Journal reported that sources tell them that FOMC voters are entertaining a 0.75% hike on Wednesday.  In fact, CNBC’s Steve Liesman reported that his sources tell him a three-quarters of a percent hike is likely this week.  If the Fed does this, it would be the largest hike since 1994.

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After the close, ORCL beat estimates on both the revenue and earnings lines.  The company said its Cloud business (infrastructure as a service and software as a service) rose more than expected and this was the key to the beats.  ORCL was up 13.5% in after-hours trading.

We now have bond rate inversions (a better yield for short-term bond than long-term bond).  Both the 2-year and 5-year bonds now have higher yields than the 10-year.  In addition, the Dollar is incredibly strong.  at its highest level against the Yen since 1998.  The Dollar is up 22% versus the Yen and up 15% versus the Euro in the last 12 months.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get Retail Sales, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, April Business Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories, Q2 Interest Rate Projections, Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference.  On Thursday, we see May Building Permits, May Housing Starts, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Finally, on Friday we get May Industrial Production and hear from Fed Chair Powell again.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red side.  Australia (-3.55%) and New Zealand (-2.59%) were outliers, showing by far the largest losses.  Meanwhile, Malaysia (+1.12%) and Shanghai (+1.02%) were by far the biggest gainers and perhaps outliers from the other very modestly green winners of the region.  In Europe, stocks are leaning heavily to the red with only Russia and Norway showing even modest gains at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.82%), DAX (-0.86%), and CAC (-1.05%) lead the way and are typical of early afternoon trading.  However, Greece (-4.50%) is an outlier to the downside.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.12% open, the SPY is implying a +0.29% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.56% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have pulled back to 3.318% and Oil is up a half of a percent to $121.67/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Tuesday is limited to May PPI (8:30 am).  The only major earnings on the day are CNM and FERG before the open as well as ASTL after the close.

On the earnings front, this is a very slow week.  On Wednesday there are no major earnings reports. Then on Thursday, we do get reports from KR, CMC, JBL, and ADBE.  However, there are no earnings reports again on Friday.

LTA Scanning Software

If we look at the last few days of price action, we see what capitulation should look like. Significant gaps lower and big, black candles that close on their lows, pulling away from the T-line are sure signs that Randolph Duke is yelling “sell, Mortimer, sell” at his brother. And even though volume started below average, it has steadily declined over those last few days as the gaps and candles grew in size. So, even if we are not at THE BOTTOM, we need relief from extension which means we are nearing A BOTTOM. Does the bounce the last 10 minutes of the day and a modest premarket gap up this morning signal that extension relief? Your guess is as good as mine. All I can tell you for sure is that we are extended and we have seen capitulation-type selling the last few days.

The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TSLA, USO, PATH, TTWO, VLO, KHC, DPZ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets Look to Gap Lower Again

On Friday, the May CPI came in hotter than expected (8.6% vs 8.3% forecast) and a flat premarket turned into a 1.5% – 1.9% gap down at the open.  From there we saw an hour of follow-through to the downside and then an all-day rollercoaster ride sideways.  We ended the day on a dark pool selloff that just took us to a new low.  This gave us gap-down, big black candles that closed on their lows in all 3 major indices.  For the day, SPY lost 2.90%, DIA lost 2.67%, and QQQ lost 3.53%.  The VXX was flat at 23.33 and T2122 fell well into the oversold territory to 6.90.  10-year bond yields spiked to 3.157% and Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent to $120.66/barrel.

In Economic news, Friday’s much hotter than expected CPI number is likely to have traders laser-focused on Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, interest rate forecast, and perhaps most importantly Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.  More hawkish analysts and media said the number put a 0.75% rate hike back on the table for this week.  However, a large majority of analysts reacted more like GS, which took Friday’s number as a signal to revise its rate-hike forecast to include a half-percent hike this week, in July, and in September.  (Previously, GS had only forecast a quarter-point hike in September.)  Futures markets have now priced in 2.55% of rate hikes in the Fed’s 5 remaining meetings this year, more than last week. For traders, the short-term implication is that we might see a low-volume, dull market until Wednesday afternoon as traders wait to see if Powell gives guidance on what will happen past July.  However, expectations are for more hikes than expected this year. So, a further selloff is also on the table. As for bond markets, yields spiked by the largest amount in 13 years on Friday in response to the CPI number.

In business news, the airline industry is already back to pre-pandemic traveler levels and got another boost Friday.  The CDC dropped the requirement for travelers coming from abroad to prove a negative covid-19 test before entering the country.  The CDC will re-evaluate this decision after 90 days, but that will be after the summer travel season.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, South Korea is now a week into its national trucker strike (protesting pay as their fuel costs surge).  So far, there have been port slowdowns causing serious supply chain problems.  Hyundai had production drop 60% at their largest factory on Friday due to component shortages.  However, so far SSNLF (Samsung Electronics) has seen no disruptions and does not expect near-term stoppages given its materials and component inventories.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In Crypto news, Bitcoin fell to an 18-month low Friday ($29,000), and fell again over the weekend to $24,000 after failing resistance at $33,000 earlier in the week. Analysts tell Bloomberg they are expecting the fall to continue at least the mid-teen area.  Ethereum price action is also suggesting there may be more pain ahead for digital currencies.  Finally, crypto lender Celsius Network has halted withdrawals, swaps, and transfers on their platform as their coin (CEL) fell 53%.  Rival company Nexo announced plans to acquire assets from Celsius.

S&P 500 stocks sitting at a 52-Week Low INCLUDE (but are not limited to) INTC, MU, DIS, TXN, WFC, GS, MDT, MMM, CCL, ISRG, HCA, EXPE, BSX, SWK, SYK, CFG, SPG, and LH.  Meanwhile, S&P stocks sitting at a 52-Week High are limited to XOM, MPC, VLO, EOG, PSX, and DXCM.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get May PPI.  Wednesday, we get Retail Sales, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, April Business Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories, Q2 Interest Rate Projections, Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference.  On Thursday, we see May Building Permits, May Housing Starts, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Finally, on Friday we get May Industrial Production and hear from Fed Chair Powell again.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly red across the board.  South Korea (-3.52%), Hong Kong (-3.39%), and Japan (-3.01%) led the region lower on China walking back reopening (after lockdown) as well as the nationwide trucker strike in Korea.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape as of mid-day.  The FTSE (-1.56%), DAX (-1.78%), and CAC (-2.09%) are typical and lead the region lower in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a strong gap down to start the week.  The DIA implies a -1.79% open, the SPY is implying a -2.24% open, and the QQQ implies a -2.92% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are spiking again at 3.255% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.5% to $118.82/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Monday is limited to a Fed Speaker (Brainard at 2 pm).  The only major earnings is ORCL which reports after the close.

On the earnings front, this is a very slow week.  On Tuesday we hear from CNM and ASTL.  Wednesday there are no major earnings reports. On Thursday we get reports from KR, CMC, JBL, and ADBE.  There are no earnings reports on Friday.

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Most of the talk is about last night’s Congressional hearings on the January 6 insurrection. However, the big news (and reason for premarket wait-and-see) is the CPI report at 8:30 am. Regardless of how the number comes in, we can expect it to be bad. Consensus forecasts are calling for 8.3% and even if it comes in light that does not mean inflation cannot speed up again. Nonetheless, we can expect a knee-jerk reaction, either way, the report lands…and then a whipsaw back the other direction after reconsideration by traders.

Technically speaking, the bears have the ball now that we have failed down out of the choppy consolidation area. In terms of extension, we are not in the oversold territory yet and while we are a fair way from the T-line after yesterday’s big move, I would not call this over-extended to the downside. If you are a long trader, you need to be very careful as there is room to move before the next support level. However, if you are on the bear side, just keep in mind that the move lower will likely not be in a straight line. With the weekend ahead, this may be a good day to get small, get hedged, or sit on your hands.

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

CPI Number and How it is Spun On Deck

Markets gapped down at the open by about half a percent on Thursday and then just waffled sideways until shortly after 1 pm.  At that point, the bears took over and sold off the market the rest of the day, closing on the lows. This left us with large, black candles with longer upper wicks in all 3 major indices.  All 3 also fell through their T-lines again today, as well as breaking down through the bottom of the recent choppy consolidation range.  All 10 sectors were heavily in the red, with Technology (-2.95%) being the most bearish and Communications (-1.51%) being the least bearish.  On the day, SPY lost 2.36%, DIA lost 1.92%, and QQQ lost 2.68%.  The VXX climbed just under 6% to 23.06 and T2122 dropped hard and is now sitting toward the bottom end of the mid-range at 25.33.  10-year bond yields rose to 3.051% and Oil (WTI) fell three-fourths of a percent to $121.23/barrel.

In business news, in an unexpected move, the CEO of DIS fired its head of TV content, citing that the fired executive (Peter Rice) was not a team player.  SFIX (reporting after the bell Thursday) also announced it is laying off 15% of its salaried workforce in a cost-cutting measure.

After the close, MTN, SFIX, and DOCU all reported beats on revenue while missing on earnings.  In particular, SFIX badly missed posting a much larger loss than expected.  DOCU was down as much as 20%, SFIX was down 17%, but MTN rallied almost 7% in post-market trade.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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On the Russia story, Russian President Putin compared himself to Peter the Great (who led Russia during the conquest of the Baltic coast in the 1700s) and appeared to hint at further territorial expansion in the future.  Elsewhere, Russia cut its key interest rate by 1.5% while also saying that the decline in economic activity (due to sanctions) was smaller than expected in April.  However, the central bank justified the rate cut by saying that inflation was slowing faster than expected.

In international interest rate news, Bloomberg reports that EU area bonds are selling off today after the ECB failed to give guidance on how they would reduce the risk of fragmentation among EU members.  Italy and Greece are leading the selloff while Germany and France remain the strongest.  In Japan, the Finance Minister, Finance Regulator, and Central Bank all put out a joint statement that they would act if needed to prevent the further slide of the Yen.  (Analysts say the Yen weakness, being at a 24-year low, is due to policy divergence of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve.

The reason for Asian stock weakness is that after a brief reprieve, China will re-implement a city-wide lockdown in Shanghai on the weekend.  This is scheduled to be a brief lockdown and is intended to allow another mass Covid test for all citizens as the case count is rising again. However, the release of this story does not exactly explain why mainland Chinese markets remained green today.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board with the exception of mainland China.  Shenzhen (+1.90%) and Shanghai (+1.42%) were the only green in the region.  India (-1.68%), Japan (-1.49%), and Australian (-1.25%) led the region lower.  In Europe, stocks are red all across the region at mid-day.  The FTSE (-1.26%), DAX (-1.42%), and CAC (-1.72%) lead the way as usual on trade volume alone in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat open well ahead of CPI data.  The DIA implies a -0.23% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.16% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down slightly to 3.038% and Oil (WTI) is up three-quarters of a percent to $122.45/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Friday include May CPI (8:30 am), Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), the WASDE Report (noon), and the May Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

LTA Scanning Software

Most of the talk is about last night’s Congressional hearings on the January 6 insurrection. However, the big news (and reason for premarket wait-and-see) is the CPI report at 8:30 am. Regardless of how the number comes in, we can expect it to be bad. Consensus forecasts are calling for 8.3% and even if it comes in light that does not mean inflation cannot speed up again. Nonetheless, we can expect a knee-jerk reaction, either way, the report lands…and then a whipsaw back the other direction after reconsideration by traders.

Technically speaking, the bears have the ball now that we have failed down out of the choppy consolidation area. In terms of extension, we are not in the oversold territory yet and while we are a fair way from the T-line after yesterday’s big move, I would not call this over-extended to the downside. If you are a long trader, you need to be very careful as there is room to move before the next support level. However, if you are on the bear side, just keep in mind that the move lower will likely not be in a straight line. With the weekend ahead, this may be a good day to get small, get hedged, or sit on your hands.

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Jobless Claims and ECB Rate Decision Today

Stocks gapped down about half a percent Wednesday and then ground sideways in the gap until a selloff kicked in for about half an hour mid-day.  From there all 3 major indices resumed their sideways grind in a tight range.  This action gave us small-bodied black Harami candles with larger upper wicks.  Both large-cap indices closed the day at their T-lines.  However, all 3 remain in that choppy consolidation range of the last 1.5 weeks.  On the day, SPY lost 1.09%, DIA lost 0.84%, and QQQ lost 0.72%.  The VXX climbed six-tenths of a percent to 21.80 and T2122 fell just outside of the overbought territory to 78.15.  10-year bond yields jumped back up to 3.025% and Oil (WTI) surged another 2.7% to $122.61/barrel.

During the day, SEC Chair Gary Gensler unveiled proposed rule changes.  The new rules would require trading firms (wholesalers) and exchanges to compete in open auctions for trades.  In other words, the back-room deals where brokerages sell order flow to a specific outlet would be made illegal.  The rule would also require brokers to disclose how this will impact both order execution and the price received.  If approved, this would change the way order wholesalers do business and may impact the “zero commissions” model of some brokerages.  Another rule would reduce the minimum “tick size” to fractions of a penny to align with the way dark pools are allowed to trade.

After the close, ABM and GEF both reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, FIVE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In business news, VWAGY CEO Keogh told CNBC that the company is actively looking for US locations for a new battery manufacturing facility and a car assembly plant.  No specific amount of investment was given, but he said it was part of the German company’s $7.1 billion commitment to boost electric vehicle efforts in North America.  In a surprise, AAPL also clarified that it will be providing the loans for its “buy now, pay later” service by itself, without external partners from the banking or finance industries.  Finally, TWTR announced that it plans to hold a shareholder vote on the sale to Elon Musk in late July or early August.  This is part of the escalating tensions where Musk constantly tweets things that hurt the value of TWTR and questions whether he will walk away from the deal while the company insists that he has an iron-clad purchase contract.

Overnight, the EU voted to ban gasoline and diesel vehicles (cars and vans) after 2035. Across the channel, the UK had already voted to prohibit those sales after 2030. So, the European stance was a compromise slower timeline to help the poorer EU nations. Also this week, the Biden Administration has announced standards for electric charging stations. (Currently, there is no standardization.) These new standards will guide the spending of $7.5 billion the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill allocates toward a national electric charging station network.

So far this morning, NIO and SIG have both reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, BILI beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside.  Only Japan (+0.04%), Thailand (+0.27%), and India (+0.74%) managed to stay in the green.  However, Shenzhen (-1.85%), Australia (-1.42%), and Shanghai (-0.76%) led the rest of the region lower.  In Europe, we see a similar story taking shape at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.41%), DAX (-0.66%), and CAC (-0.26%) are typical of the region with only 2 exchanges barely hanging on to green in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green open.  The DIA implies a +0.43% open, the SPY is implying a +0.46% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.46% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields and Oil (WTI) are both flat in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am). However, many traders will also be watching the ECB for their rate decision (as a read-through on Fed action, even as a 50 basis point move by the Fed is priced into futures as almost a mortal lock). The major earnings reports scheduled for release include BILI and SIG before the open.  Then after the close, DOCU, SFIX, and MTN report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday we get May CPI, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the WASDE Report, and the May Federal Budget Balance.

On the earnings front for later this week, on Friday there are no major reports scheduled.

LTA Scanning Software

With Jobless Claims coming later this morning, premarkets look to have bounced up off the T-lines and are modestly positive at 7:30 am. Just remember that the open has not been a great indicator of where the day will close recently. The chop zone still prevails and we need to respect that range’s boundaries until it is clearly broken by a new directional move.

Technically speaking, we remain way over-bought in a choppy consolidation zone that started nearly 2 weeks ago. None of the major indices are in an uptrend yet (at least on a daily chart), but we may have a higher-low in all 3 of them. So, we remain in limbo with the mid-term downtrend broken, but a potential new uptrend that has not been confirmed. This is a dangerous area for Swing Traders. So continue to be careful, nimble, and/or hedged. (Or sit on your hands.)

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MRNA, DKNG, CRM, CTVA, LLY, ABBV, AUY, BA, NKE, ROKU, CTIC. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Yellen On Deck and Premarket Rebounds

Markets gapped down 0.8%-1.2% at the open Tuesday. However, the intraday reversal theme held as the bulls stepped in to fill that gap by 10:30 am.  From there we saw a rollercoaster ride with a bullish trend that drove into the close not far from the high. The action left us with gap-down, large, white candles that have climbed back above the T-line and back into the upper end of the recent choppy trading range.  The SPY and DIA both printed Bullish Engulfing candles while the QQQ printed a Bullish Piercing Candle.  The energy and Healthcare sectors led the market throughout the session.  On the day, SPY gained 0.90%, DIA gained 0.83%, and QQQ gained 0.86%.  The VXX fell 1.63% to 21.67 and T2122 climbed even deeper into the overbought territory at 94.  10-year bond yields fell to 2.985% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.4% to $120.14/barrel.

During the day Tuesday, AAPL outlined its new Apple Pay features that include “Buy Now, Pay Later” which will now directly compete with AFRM and PYPL.  The idea behind this offering is to capture users and keep them inside the iOS ecosystem instead of looking elsewhere for “Buy Now, Pay Later” services.  AAPL was up 1.75% while PYPL gained 1.96% and AFRM gained 2.74% on the day.  On the other side of the pond, AAPL agreed to a deal with the EU to remove their proprietary charging cables and go-to industry-standard USB-C cables for charging iPhones by 2024.  The deal will allow the company to avoid further fines and sanctions on the issue.

After the close, CASY reported beats on both lines. So far this morning CPB, THO, and BLCO all reported beating on the top and bottom lines as well. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In business news, after the close 5 automakers backed President Biden’s push to restore California having the ability to set its own, stricter than Federal, emissions standards.  Former President Trump had stripped states of that authority and the Biden administration is backing an EPW decision to restore it.  The companies supporting the measure include F, HMC, VWAGY, BMWYY, and VOLAF.  Surprisingly not on that list is TSLA, NIO, RIVN, NKLA, LCID, or even TM who might all benefit from the tighter rules on emissions.  Elsewhere, PYPL announced that it will now allow users to send and receive cryptocurrencies between PYPL wallets and other exchanges.  (PYPL users had previously been able to buy and sell crypto only to PYPL itself.)

SEC Chair Gary Gensler is scheduled to speak today. He is expected to address plans to change rules forcing exchanges to openly bid on brokerage order flows (rather than have unknown back-room deals) and for brokerages to be required to disclose how this will impact both order execution and the price received.  Industry forces (such as order wholesalers) are lobbying against Gensler’s plan even before they are announced.  We should note that the “Payment for Order Flow” is the mechanism that let many brokers go to a zero commissions business model. So, depending on what Gensler says and how the SEC eventually implements his vision, brokerage commission structures may be changing again. Another topic Gensler is expected to address is “Dark Pools” which now account for 40% of all market volume and are hidden from most market participants until the end of the day.

In Economic news, Bloomberg reported a few rays of light in the dark cloud of inflation we have been facing.  As I mentioned in the past, the price of semiconductors has been coming down for months now.  However, Bloomberg reported last night that the price of shipping containers has fallen 28% since the September 2021 highs.  In addition (and too late for the current US crop) nitrogen fertilizer prices have dropped like a rock from the $1400/ton March price to $675/ton as Brazil reported a glut in Brazilian ports with no place left to store it.  These will take some time to ripple through the economy and by no means does this mean inflation is falling yet, but these are signs of hope. On the opposite side of the spectrum, citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank lowered its global GDP forecast to +2.9% for 2022. This is down dramatically from the 2021 +5.7% number or even the World Bank’s own January forecast of 4.1%. Finally, mortgage demand has fallen again this week, reaching the lowest level of this century as 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming rates rose to 5.40%.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed, but leaned to the green side.  Hong Kong (+2.24%) was an outlier with Japan (+1.04%), Taiwan (+0.95%), and Shenzhen (+0.82%) being the more typical leaders of the region.  In Europe, stocks are mostly in the red at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.33%), DAX (-0.42%), and CAC (-0.68%) are typical of the region with outliers like Russia (+1.71%) and Denmark (-1.23%) in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.34% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have climbed back to 3.012% and Oil (WTI) is up another percent to $120.66/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Wednesday we see Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and the 10-year bond auction (1 pm).  Treasury Sec. Yellen will also testify before Congress at 10 am. The major earnings reports scheduled for release include BF.B, BLCO, CPB, and OLLI before the open.  Then after the close, ABM, FIVE, and GEF report.

In economic news later this week, Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday we get May CPI, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the WASDE Report, and the May Federal Budget Balance.

On the earnings front for later this week, on Thursday we hear from BILI, SIG, DOCU, SFIX, and MTN. Finally, on Friday there are no major reports scheduled.

LTA Scanning Software

The bears are offering only a slight pushback on the strong candles the market printed yesterday. Even at that, the premarket action has been positive (white candle) since the start of the early session. So, we should keep our eyes on the top of the recent chop range to see if the bulls can get going. However, remember that until that level is broken with some strength, we have to assume the back-and-forth chop of the last week and a half will continue.

Technically speaking, we remain way over-bought in a choppy consolidation zone that started after a one-week rally inside a longer-term downtrend. None of the major indices are in an uptrend yet (at least on a daily chart), but we do have a higher-low in all 3 of them. So, we remain in limbo with the mid-term downtrend broken, but a potential new uptrend that has not been confirmed. This is a dangerous area for Swing Traders. So continue to be careful, nimble, and/or hedged. (Or sit on your hands.)

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NEWR, PLUG, DHR, OXY, LKQ, DVN, VERU, WMB, F, T, VALE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

TGT Cuts Guidance, Crypto Plan Released

Stocks gapped a percent higher at the open Monday.  After treading water for the first 90 minutes, the bears stepped in and drove price back down to fill the gap by about 12:30 pm.  From there we have seen a whippy, rollercoaster to sideways in the gap the rest of the day.  This action left us with gap-up, black-bodied, Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices.  From a sector standpoint, it is the Consumer Cyclicals that are the big loser of the day while Industrials, Basic Materials, and Financial Services led the gains.  On a day where sideways intraday chop is the rule, markets remain inside the recent choppy consolidation range.  On the day, SPY gained 0.30%, DIA gained 0.03%, and QQQ gained 0.33%.  The VXX also was up two-thirds of a percent to 22.03 and T2122 was flat (and remains overbought) at 88.02.  10-year bond yields surged to closed at 3.04% and Oil (WTI) closed down at $119.40/barrel.

During the day, AAPL held its annual World-Wide Developer’s Conference.  At the event, the company announced new M2 CPUs for Macbooks, another version of its iOS for phones and iPads, a new macOS and a new Apple Watch OS.  For investors, the largest reveal was probably the entry of AAPL into the buy-now-pay-later business with an offering called Pay Later.  During the event, CEO Tim Cook giggled but then refused to comment on whether the Chinese portion of AAPL’s supply chain is opening up yet. On the day, AAPL stock was up one-half of a percent but has given that back overnight, trading down half a percent in premarket.

After the close, NGL beat handily on revenue but also printed an awful miss on earnings. This is very odd for an oil refinery when gas prices have been at record levels the last few months.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

In stock news, TWTR printed a Belthold type of candle as traders furiously tried to regain ground after Elon Musk threatened to walk away (at a $1 billion cost) from his purchase offer over the company not providing him data on users.  On the day, TWTR close down 1.49% after being down almost 6% early.   Solar stocks had a good day as on Sunday the Biden Administration announced a 2-year dropping of tariffs on solar panel imports.  Among the biggest gainers were FTCI (+31.74%), SHLS (+21.48%), ARRY (+18%), and JKS (+7.98%).  Among the more widely-traded solar stocks, ENPH (+5.41%), SEDG (+2.86%), and RUN (+5.94%) were the winners while domestic panel producer FSLR (-3.92%) took a hit.

Overnight a speech from a senior Chinese economist at a state-run research group on the topic of US-China relations was posted.  In the speech (delivered last month, but printed today), he called for China to seize TSM if the West were to levy Russian-like sanctions on China.  (For anyone who doesn’t know, TSM is the largest and leading technology semiconductor manufacturer in the world.  Companies like AMD, NVDA, INTC, etc. all are dependent on TSM chips.)  In the speech he went on to talk about the recovery of Taiwan and worried that TSM is speeding up the transfer of their operations to the US by building six factories (chip fabs) here.  He flatly stated that China must not allow the goals of the transfer be achieved.  TSM stock is down 0.87% in premarket while AMD is down 1.33%, NVDA is down 1.83%, and INTC is down 0.74%. on this potential threat.

In crypto news, a bipartisan group of US Senators and Congressmen said they are ready to debut a plan to overhaul the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and futures.  The plan would classify the vast majority of “digital assets” as commodities and empower the CFTC (not the SEC) to regulate the market.  This runs somewhat contrary to the fact that SEC Chair Gensler has been the one leading a public crusade to regulate crypto assets.  This law is just being introduced and much debate, horse-trading, and voting remain before this plan becomes law.  It is also worth noting that the “crypto lobby” is has a lot of sway in Congress, having contributed $30 million to various campaigns in the last 2 years according to CNBC.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side.  Australia announced a rate hike that was larger than expected (50 basis points with 25 basis points expected). As a result, South Korea (-1.66%), Australia (-1.53%), and New Zealand (-1.33%) paced the losses.  Only Japan (+0.10%), Singapore (+0.15%), and Shanghai (+0.17%) were able to print any green across the region.  In Europe, stocks are similar to Asia, with red all over the board and only 3 minor patches of green at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.16%) leads, perhaps on the fact that Boris Johnson survived a “No Confidence” vote and will remains PM of the UK, with the DAX (-1.01%) and CAC (-1.08%) more typical of the region in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap-down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.84% open, the SPY is implying a -0.96% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.21% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down a bit to 3.016% and Oil (WTI) is off six-tenths of a percent to $117.75/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Tuesday include April Imports, April Exports, and April Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am).  However, keep an eye on unannounced guidance changes (lowering) as the market looks for clues of how bad the inflations and slow-down will impact companies. For example, this morning TGT warned their profits will be lower than expected in the short-term as it pays to cancel orders and marks down inventory to sell slow-moving products. The major earnings reports scheduled for release include ASO, CHS, CBRL, GIII, PLAY, MOMO, HOLX, SJM, REVG, and UNFI before the open.  Then after the close, CASY reports. So far this morning UNFI, SJM, MOMO, GIII, and CHS all reported beating on the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, REVG missed on both revenue and earnings.

In economic news later this week, Wednesday we see Crude Oil Inventories and the 10-year bond auction.  Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday we get May CPI, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the WASDE Report, and the May Federal Budget Balance.

On the earnings front for later this week, on Wednesday we get reports from CPB, OLLI, ABM, FIVE, and GEF.  Thursday brings reports from BILI, SIG, DOCU, SFIX, and MTN. Finally, on Friday there are no major reports scheduled.

LTA Scanning Software

It looks like the bears will retest the bottom of the recent chop range (and the T-line) on the gap-down open across all 3 major indices. This will be a key level and if it fails, the bulls may run for cover in the short term. With that said, until that level is broken, we have to assume this is just more chop inside the consolidation zone.

Technically speaking, we remain over-bought in a choppy consolidation after a one-week rally inside a longer-term downtrend. None of the major indices are in an uptrend yet (at least on a daily chart). So, we remain in the no-mans-land where the mid-term downtrend has been broken, but a new uptrend has not been confirmed. This is a dangerous area for Swing Traders. So continue to be careful, nimble, and/or hedged. (Or sit on your hands.)

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CC, MO, COP, VLO, PG, AAPL, W, WMT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

AAPL Event and Saudi Oil Price Hike Lead News

In the pre-market Friday, May Payrolls came in significantly higher than expected (yet also significantly below the number in April) at +390k jobs.  The unemployment rate remains at 3.6% and the participation rate increased very slightly to 62.3%.  This all led to a 1%-2% gap down at the open. At that point, the high-tech QQQ continued to selloff until 11:30 am, when it joined the SPY and DIA in beginning a sideways roller-coaster ride along the lows.  This left us with Bearish Harami Spinning Top and Bearish Harami Doji candles in all 3 major indices.  Just like Wednesday (and completely the mirror of Thursday), 9 sectors were in the red with only Energy managing to stay green.  Of the 9, Technology was by far the worst hit sector.  However, it is worth noting that all of the day’s action happened on much lower-than-average volume.  On the day, SPY lost 1.64%, DIA lost 1.03%, and QQQ lost 2.60%.  The VXX gained nine-tenths of a percent to 21.89 and T2122 fell slightly to 89.47, but still remains overbought.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.941% and Oil (WTI) jumped almost 3% to $120.28/barrel.

Mid-afternoon Friday Fed voter Mester (Cleveland Fed President) told CNBC that “inflation has not peaked yet” and “we still need multiple half-point rate hikes this summer.”  She also said she may back a September half-point hike as well if inflation does not cool. This came the same day as Elon Musk’s “I have a really bad feeling about the economy” and email to TSLA employees announcing a 10% workforce cut.  Finally, the CEO of C said it will be hard for the US to avoid recession.  However, he also said that Europe is more likely to head into recession than the US at this point.

Related to the Oil industry, after the close Friday, Bloomberg posted an article that shows all oil is not equal (and therefore not all oil stocks are equal).  Although “light sweet oil” prices have skyrocketed to $120/barrel, the price differential between that and the heavy “Western Canadian Select” oil sands oil has risen from less than $2 to almost $21 per barrel.  The proximate reason most cited for this is that US strategic petroleum reserves are nearly all made up of the “sour” (heavier) grade of oil.  So, as the US releases oil to fight gas price inflation, the US demand for heavy oil is being supplied by the much closer (lower transport cost) source to the tune of 1 million barrels per day.  Meanwhile, the other major heavy oil users (China and India) are buying Russian oil at a $40 discount to WTI ($20 cheaper than WCS).  This makes the largest market for WCS oil Europe, which is now moving more and more to being supplied by US and Middle-Eastern light sweet grades, and the Canadian transport costs to Europe are very heavy in relative terms.  Major companies suffering from this issue are ENB, SU, IMO, CNQ, CVE, TRP, and PBA. In a last-minute addition, Saudi Arabia raised the Asian and Northern European prices for oil more than expected, despite last week’s increase of production quotas.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

On the Covid story, Bloomberg reported this weekend that China is declaring the victory of their “Zero Covid” policy.  This seems to jibe with AAPL saying that Chinese lockdowns at Apple’s major iPhone manufacturers and assemblers had not seriously impacted supply or sales.  However, at the same time, parts of China remain in strict lockdowns and Hong Kong is reimposing centralized quarantines as of the weekend. This may inform the reason AAPL announced this week that its moving more of its iPhone production to Vietnam.

In stock news, AMZN CEO for Worldwide Consumer (the top retail exec, who led the company’s massive logistics and Prime expansion) resigned effective July 1. This comes as AMZN starts the day split 20-1 as of today.  Meanwhile, the WSJ reported Saturday that REV is in talks with creditors in hope of avoiding bankruptcy on roughly $1.7 billion in debt that comes due by 2024.  Finally, AAPL holds its largest press event (“World Wide Developer’s Conference”) Monday with expected updates to the software for Macs, iPhones, iPads, Apple Watch, and Apple Virtual Reality offerings.  In the past, this conference has resulted in stock moves for AAPL.

In business news, RBC reported that US Auto Sales in May were down, coming in at 12.8 million vehicles versus 13.4 million forecast and well down from April’s 14.6 million vehicles sold.  They classified this as “recessionary levels” (which are typically in the 12-13 million range).  The company is forecasting 14.7 million vehicles sell in June, which is still 2% below the 15.1 million sold in June 2021.  Elsewhere, ABT restarted their Sturgis Michigan infant formula plant over the weekend.  This increases ABT production capacity by at least 25% and will go a long way toward addressing the political/news story of infant formula shortages soon.  Finally, Barron’s reports that WMT is adding new e-commerce fulfillment centers that will add 4,000 jobs and allow Walmart to reach 95% of the US population with either next day or two-day shipping as it continues to make moves to compete with AMZN.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside.  Hong Kong (+2.71%), Shenzhen (+2.66%), and Shanghai (+1.28%) led the way higher.  Meanwhile, in Europe, stocks lean heavily to the green side at mid-day.  The FTSE (+1.09%), SAX (+1.00%), and CAC (+1.08%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher at the start of the day.  The DIA implies a +0.78% open, the SPY is implying a +1.02% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.36% open to start the week.  10-year bond yields are up to 2.957% and Oil (WTI) is down to $119.44/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for release Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for release are limited to SAIC before the open.  Then after the close, NGL reports. So far this morning, SAIC reported beats on both lines.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get April Imports, April Exports, and April Trade Balance.  Then on Wednesday, we see Crude Oil Inventories and the 10-year bond auction.  Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday we get May CPI, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the WASDE Report, and the May Federal Budget Balance.

On the earnings front for later this week, on Tuesday we hear from ASO, CHS, CBRL, GIII, MOMO, HOLX, SJM, REVG, UNFI, CASY, and PLAY.  On Wednesday we get reports from CPB, OLLI, ABM, FIVE, and GEF.  Thursday brings reports from BILI, SIG, DOCU, SFIX, and MTN. Finally, on Friday there are no major reports scheduled.

LTA Scanning Software

The nice gap higher is still looking like it will leave us in the recent chop or consolidation range. So, while we are starting the week off on positive trading, we are by no means out of the back-and-forth zone that we’ve been fighting for a week. If the bulls want to take us to new heights, there remains a lot of work to do to break through the resistance levels above. The good news is that we don’t have to worry about new data refocusing Mr. Market on inflation until Friday. So, perhaps we can have a few days to focus on the charts.

Technically speaking, we should also bear in mind that even if this consolidation did print a higher-low, we have not yet printed that higher-high. So, none of the major indices are in an uptrend yet (at least on a daily chart). And we also remain overbought at this point, above 88 in the T2122. So, we remain in the no-mans-land where the mid-term downtrend has been broken, but a new uptrend has not been confirmed. This is a dangerous area for Swing Traders…be careful, nimble, and/or hedged.

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NVDA, EXPE, AMD, XBI, NFLX, CHWY, CVX, TAN, EQT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

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