Fed Hawks Warn and Retail Keeps Beating

Again or still…for the second day in a row. However you say it, it’s the same story as Thursday.

Markets gapped down strongly Thursday after Wednesday’s Hawkish Fed statements.  The SPY opened down 1.27%, DIA gapped down 1.00%, and QQQ jumped down 1.59% at the open.  However, from that point, the bulls started a slow, wavy, rally that took us to the highs of the day about 1:20 pm. At that point, a slow, steady selloff started that took us back down into the morning gap, before rallying hard the last 30 minutes. During the session, price tested and held the T-line (8ema) in all 3 indices (SPY, DIA, and QQQ).  This action gave us gap-down white candles with upper wicks in all 3 major indices.

On the day, eight of the ten sectors are in the red, with the Utilities sector (-1.53%) leading the losses while the Communications Services (+0.16%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.14%) sectors held up the best.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 0.31%, the DIA was flat at +0.01%, and the QQQ lost 0.22%.  The VXX fell 0.96% to 16.58 and T2122 dropped back into the center of the mid-range at 56.25.  10-year bond yields have climbed to 3.769% and Oil (WTI) plunged 4.26% to $81.94 per barrel.  So, overall Thursday was a gap-down day where the bulls immediately rejected the gap as the bulls and bears then fought to an overall standstill by day’s end.

In economic news, October Building Permits came in above the forecast at a number of 1.526 million (compared to 1.512 million expected, but still below the September value of 1.564 million).  October Housing Starts also beat the forecasted value, coming in at 1.425 million (compared to the forecasted 1.410 million, but again still below the 1.488 million in September).  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also beat expectations, coming in at 222k (compared to a forecasted 225k and last week’s value of 226k).  However, the November Philly Fed Mfg. Index came in far below expectations at -19.4 (compared to the forecasted -6.2 and October’s value of -8.7).  In other economic news, Bloomberg reported that US mortgage rates saw the biggest drop in over 41 years this week, with the US avg. 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropping to 6.61% (lowest level in two months).  In Fed news, Fed speakers gave us more hawkish comments Thursday.  St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard said that the rate hikes, so far, have only had limited effects on inflation.  He suggested rates will have to be hiked further than expected to effectively bring down inflation.  While he did not say how high, he used a chart that showed a range of 5%-7% (and we are currently between 3.75% and 4%).  Later, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he wants to be sure inflation has stopped climbing before he would support stopping interest rate hikes, and “it’s an open question how far we have to go with the interest rate (hikes).”

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In stock news, Reuters reported that HAS is looking to sell its TV production business unit eOne.  Meanwhile, the FAA said it does not expect to certify the BA “737 Max 7” plane this year.  This means the plane will need to be reworked to meet new cockpit safety alert standards that come into effect on December 27.  However, BA is still seeking a waiver from those safety standards from Congress, but no progress has been reported on that front yet.  Elsewhere, GM subsidiary Brightdrop said it expects to reach $1 billion in revenue.  Also on Thursday, workers at 100 SBUX stores held a 1-day walkout to protest “illegal retaliation against workers who tried to organize unions.”  Elsewhere, after hours, DNUT settled US Dept. of Labor charges that it failed to pay overtime to several hundred workers by paying a $1.19 million fine.  Finally, AMZN CEO Jassy said the company would continue cutting jobs into 2023, but did not detail the additional cuts.

In energy news, the EIA said on Thursday that in October, Heating Oil costs for US households were 65% more than in the same month of 2021. In part, this was due to the US importing 38% less distillate fuel than it has in recent years as well as by a fire that has taken the largest East Coast distillate refinery (in Philadelphia) offline permanently.  In other energy news, the cause of Thursday’s selloff in oil is being attributed to bad covid news out of China.  The Chinese new case total has risen to the highest level since April with the majority of new cases coming from the heavy manufacturing region of Guangzhou.  However, the hawkish talk from Fed members also stoked fear of a rate-hike-induced economic slowdown in the US, which did not help oil prices.

After the close, AMAT, ROST, GPS, POST, UGI, KEYS, PANW, WWD, and STNE all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, WSM beat on the revenue line while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, FTCH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ROST, KEYS, and PANW raised their forward guidance.  However, GPS, UGI, WWD, and STNE all lowered their forward guidance.

So far this morning, JD and FL have both reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  However, SPB reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on modest moves.  New Zealand (+0.76%) was by far the largest gainer while Shanghai (-0.58%), Singapore (-0.42%), and Shenzhen (-0.37%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, with the exception of Russia (-0.65%), the entire region is in the green at midday.  The FTSE (+0.92%), DAX (+1.00%), and CAC (+1.20%) are leading a broad-based rally in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.56% open, the SPY is implying a +0.76% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.93% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are moving higher at 3.799% and Oil (WTI) is off fractionally to $81.37/barrel.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday, are limited to October Existing Home Sales are reported at 10 am.  It is also important to note that today is Options Expiration Friday and Bloomberg reports we have $2 Trillion of options expiring today. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are FL, JD, and SPB before the open.  However, there are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

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The retail industry continues to show strong earnings, implying that consumers (at least last quarter) had not yet rolled over into recession mode. However, hawkish Fed comments (especially from the most hawkish, Bullard) are telling markets not to get ahead of themselves. (Bullard implied that the end of hikes may not come until 2% higher than analysts and Fed futures have priced in. If that were to happen, it is not yet priced into markets.) So, once again, beauty and the market outlook is in the eye of the beholder. There is something to hang your hat on regardless of how you feel about market direction in the longer term.

However, in the short term, there is no question that the trend is bullish and we have seen a healthy pullback to rest in the upward move. All 3 major indices tested and held the T-line yesterday. So, extension is no problem at all (either in terms of the T-line or T2122). In addition, we held support levels in all 3 major indices. With this background, what we know for sure is that the probabilities in the near term lie in the Bull’s favor. With that said, continue to be cautious about chasing and remember it is Friday (time to get paid and “get ready for the weekend news cycle” day). This is also Options Expiration Friday, with Bloomberg reporting more than $2 Trillion in options ending at the close (really Saturday, but effectively at the close). So, we could always see some kind of price action where somebody tries to pin the price in or out of the money depending on their option position. Just be aware if there is a large open interest near price.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: no trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Fed Hawks Speak, Retail Beats Continue

Markets diverged a bit at the open Wednesday as QQQ gapped down 0.80%, SPY gapped down 0.40%, and DIA gapped down just 0.20%.  From there, the SPY and QQQ ran sideways in waves within a not-too-large range below the open all day while the DIA did the same back and forth back across the prior close level all day.  This action gave us smaller candles today, with the SPY and QQQ printing black-bodied Spinning Top candles while the DIA printed a white-bodied Inverted Hammer-type candle. This action relieved extension from the T-line (8ema) as well. 

On the day, nine of ten sectors were in the red, with the Technology sector (-2.24%) leading the losses while the Utility sector (+0.47%) held up best.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 0.76%, the DIA gained 0.04%, and the QQQ lost 1.36%.  The VXX fell 2,67% to 16.74 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 67.57.  10-year bond yields fell down to 3.692% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.82% to $85.34 per barrel.  So, overall Wednesday was a rest day where we saw a modest pullback in the bullish trend.

In economic news, October Import Price Index fell by 0.2% (compared to a drop of 0.4% that was forecast and the September drop of 1.1%).  On the other side, October Export Price Index fell 0.3% (compared to a forecast drop of 0.4% and the September drop of 1.5%).  Meanwhile, October Retail Sales grew by 1.3% (much more strongly than the forecast +1.0% and the September dead flat value at +0.0%).  Later, October Industrial Production grew 3.28% showing some slowing compared to the September 4.96% growth.  Elsewhere, September Business Inventories grew less than expected at +0.4% (compared to +0.5% forecasted and the August +0.9% growth).  At the same time, September Retail Inventories fell 0.1% which was exactly what was forecasted and better than the August growth of 0.6%.  Finally, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories followed the API move by having a 5.400-million-barrel drawdown (compared to an expected 440k barrel drawdown and last week’s 3.925-million-barrel build in stocks).

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In stock news, UAL said Wednesday that they expect the busiest travel day since the start of Covid-19 over the Thanksgiving weekend.  They forecast a 12% increase in passengers over the holiday weekend compared to 2021.  Meanwhile, COST says it has reached a deal with activist investors to cut its greenhouse emissions to new meet a new target by the end of next year.  70% of COST shareholders voted in favor of a resolution for COST to cut emissions back in January.  At the same time, a Washington state court has ruled that the $4 billion dividend payment by ACI, scheduled to be paid today will remain on hold pending the close of the KR buyout.  Reuters reports that regulators have said they received “good access” to Chinese firms’ financial records during their 7-week audit in Hong Kong.  BABA and YUMC were among the 200 companies whose records were audited in hope of saving the US listings for those companies.  Elsewhere, TSLA reported 2 new fatal car crashes involving their self-driving systems on Model 3 cars to the NHTSA Wednesday.

In miscellaneous news, despite constant talk of heavy inflation, Coffee prices have been collapsing recently, due in part to great weather in Brazil.   Coffee futures fell from $239 at the end of August to $158 (per 237,000 pounds of beans) currently. This represents a 34% drop in 2.5 months.  Elsewhere, three environmental groups sued the state of LA over its issuing of a permitting exemption to an LNG Terminal run by an unlisted firm.  However, this terminal would impact several listed companies such as KMI, ATO, and XOM.  Finally, in Fed news, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that “a pause is off the table” while Fed Governor Waller said the Fed “has a ways to go” on rate hikes and we will still need increases into next year (although he added that data is making him more comfortable with a 0.50% increase in December).

After the close, CSCO, BBWI, HP, and HI all beat on both the top and bottom lines.  At the same time, NVDA and CPRT beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CPA missed on revenue while beating on earnings. 

So far this morning, BABA, SIEGY, M, KSS, BJ, NTES, and FORTY all posted beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DOLE, BV, and WB all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, PLCE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It’s worth noting that BJ and M both raised their forward guidance while KSS removed its forward guidance altogether, citing a volatile retail environment.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red on modest moves.  South Korea (-1.39%) and Hong Kong (-1.15%) led the region lower while Singapore (+0.61%), Australia (+0.19%), and Malaysia (+0.06%) were the only three exchanges that managed to stay green.  In Europe, exchanges are red across the board as of midday.  The FTSE (-0.53%), DAX (-0.05%), and CAC (-0.71%) are typical of the region with a couple of the smaller exchanges managing to be down more than one percent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.60% open, the SPY is implying a -0.67% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.63% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 3.721% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.79% to $84.06/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday, we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am).  We also have a few Fed speakers (Bullard at 8 am, Bowman at 9:15 am, and Mester at 9:40 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are BABA, BJ, BV, DOLE, KSS, M, NTES, and WB before the open.  Then, after the close, AMAT, FTCH, GPS, KEYS, PANW, POST, ROST, WSM and WWD report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, October Existing Home Sales are reported.  Meanwhile, in earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from FL, JD, and SPB.

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With retail earnings continuing to show strong consumers (last quarter) and some expectations (HD, LOW, WMT, M, BJ) for this quarter, and Hawkish Fed members telling the market not to expect a pause in rate hikes, we get ready for another day in the market. Traders seem cautiously pessimistic in the Premarket. At any rate, retail earnings have shown that there is a clear split between strong management teams (WMT, M, BJ, etc.) and the weak ones TGT (which was punished yesterday).

With this background, what we know for sure is that the trend is bullish continues and it looks like stocks are going to retest the T-line today in all 3 major indices. So, over-extension is no problem at all today. We are also now coming back down into a potential support level for the SPY, DIA, and QQQ. So, continue to be cautious if you are thinking of chasing a move (bearish or bullish).

Be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! And there is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) just because you’ve had a win. Finally, keep in mind that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, you have to treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VALE, CSCO, TLT, DIS, INTC, AAPL, EGHT, AFRM, NAIL, NTR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Ukraine Air Defense and TGT Q4 Warning

Markets gapped strongly higher at the open Tuesday (+1.50% in the SPY, +0.82% in the DIA, and a whopping +2.48% in the QQQ) after PPI and the NY Fed Mfg. Index both came in much better than expected (from a market perspective). From there, all 3 major indices waffled sideways in a fairly tight range until just before noon.  At that point, a slow selloff took us slowly to the lows of the day (as of then) at about 1 pm.  Then at 1:10 pm, 2 missiles (presumed Russian and likely intended for Ukraine) struck a Polish village a few kilometers inside Poland, killing 2 Polish civilians.  Poland called an emergency National Security Council meeting to talk about their response. This caused a strong and immediate selloff across all 3 major indices as traders feared escalation of the war to involve NATO.  This hard selloff recrossed the morning gap and reached the lows of the day by 2 pm when a bounce kicked in that regained about two-thirds of the losses seen in the afternoon by 3:30 pm and then ground sideways into the close. 

On the day, this action is giving us gap-up, black-bodied Spinning Top type candles across all 3 major indices.  (With a little larger body in the QQQ.)  Nine of ten sectors were in the green, led by the Technology sector (+2.57%) while Communications Services (-0.73%) lagged.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.85%, the DIA gained 0.13%, and the QQQ gained 1.38%.  The VXX rallied 1.3% to 17.20 and T2122 spiked back up into the overbought territory at 91.70.  10-year bond yields fell down to 3.777% and Oil (WTI) spiked 1.21% to $86.91 per barrel.  So, overall Tuesday was a volatile day punctuated by premarket economic news (which is taken as good by the market under the assumption it will cause the Fed to ease up) and bad afternoon geopolitical news (which the market briefly took as bad under fear of war expanding in Europe).

In economic news, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at +4.50, which was significantly higher than the forecasted value of -5.00 and very much improved from the October reading of -9.10.  This positive value indicates improving business conditions.  At the same time, October PPI came in at +8.0% (year-on-year) which, like CPI last week, was well below the forecasted value of +8.3% and much better than the September reading of +8.4%.  More importantly, the Core PPI (stripping out energy and food) was up just +6.7%, a full half percent below the forecast of +7.2% and much lower than the September value of +7.1%.  Again, this indicates the growth of inflation is easing by a considerable amount, which led traders to believe the Fed may reduce the size of the rate hike it does in December.  In the afternoon, the Fed reported that US Household Debt rose at the fastest pace in 15 years during Q3 (+$351 billion). This increase was mostly due to credit card usage and mortgage balances.

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In energy news, TRP announced after the close that it has declared Force Majeure and will be required to reduce the volume of oil shipped through the Keystone pipeline (that ships oil to the Midwestern US) due to recent severe weather events.  No details were given on the amount of the reduction or the duration of the slowdown.  However, industry analysts said the reduction was about 7% of the normal 622,000 barrels per day volume.  The API reported after the close that US oil inventories dropped much more than expected last week (a 5.8 million barrel drawdown, compared to a forecast 400k barrel drawdown).  However, gasoline inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels and distillate stocks increased 850k barrels.

In stock news, activist investors TCI Fund publicly urged GOOGL to cut headcount to lower losses at the company’s Waymo self-driving unit after noting that this unit had increased headcount 20% per year since 2017.   Elsewhere, AN announced Tuesday that it has acquired a 6.1% stake in automotive digital marketplace TRUE.  Meanwhile, Jim Farley, CEO of F, said the company will need to bring much more work in-house (eliminating the need for many suppliers) in order to preserve jobs.  The underlying problem for the F workforce is that it takes 40% less labor to build an electric vehicle and the underlying problem for F is that paying profit to suppliers reduces margins in comparison to TSLA (which makes most of its own parts).  In regulatory news, the SEC has delayed its decision on whether to approve an Ark21 (spot Bitcoin) ETF until Jan. 27.  In the late afternoon, Reuters reported that CG is in talks trying to form a partnership to acquire HPN for between $8-$10 billion.  Finally, in legal news, INTC was hit with a $949 million judgment by a Texas court Tuesday for infringing the patents of Softbank subsidiary VLSI.  Earlier in the day, it was reported that GS paid $12 million to a former partner over the charge of creating a “toxic workplace for women” including vulgar remarks by the CEO.  The settlement took place two years ago but was hidden by a nondisclosure agreement.

In miscellaneous news, the New York Fed announced it is starting a 12-week pilot project for the “digital dollar.”  The pilot will include participation by C, MA, and WFC among other financial institutions.  Elsewhere, Consumer Reports ranked TSLA worst out of 24 brands of electric vehicles in terms of reliability in the US.  In currency news, the missile strikes in Poland caused very volatile Forex trading Tuesday.  The Euro was down dramatically against all pair partners and the USD swung wildly against the Yen and British Pound.  Finally, in Supply Chain news, the Port of Los Angeles reports that October volumes at the busiest US seaport fell to the lowest level since 2009.  The imports were down 28% from a year earlier and empty container handling fell more than 25% during the month.

After the close, AAP reported a beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  The company also lowered its forward guidance.  Meanwhile, GSM reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  So far this morning, LOW, ARCO, and ZIM have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, TGT beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  On the other side, TJX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that LOW raised its forward guidance and ZIM lowered its own forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red on mostly modest moves while the second day of the G-20 summit continued in that region.  Shenzhen (-1.02%), Thailand (-0.58%), and Hong Kong (-0.47%) led the way lower. Meanwhile, only Japan (+0.14%) and India (+0.03%) managed to hang on to green territory.  In Europe, we see a very similar picture taking shape at midday.  After it was decided the missiles in Poland were likely caused by Ukrainian Air Defense misses (trying to shoot down Russian missile attacks), things have settled a bit.  The FTSE (-0.03%), DAX (-0.95%), and CAC (-0.48%) are typical of the region.  However, a couple of the smaller exchanges are down more than 1% in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are now pointing toward an open just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.19% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.768% and Oil (WTI) is off just a fraction at $86.77/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include October Retail Sales and October Import/Export Price Indexes (both at 8:30 am), October Industrial Production (9:15 am), September Business Inventories and Sept. Retail Inventories (both at 10 am), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  We also have a Fed speaker (Williams at 9:50 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are ARCO, LOW, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, and ZIM before the open. Then, after the close, BBWI, CSCO, CPA, HP, HI, NVDA, and SONO report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Finally, on Friday, October Existing Home Sales are reported.

In earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from BABA, BJ, BV, DOLE, KSS, M, NTES, WB, AMAT, FTCH, GPS, KEYS, PANW, POST, ROST, WSM, and WWD report.  Finally, Friday, we hear from FL, JD, and SPB.

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With yesterday afternoon’s immediate threat (expanding war in Europe) mostly lessened, US markets turn back toward earnings and the economy. This morning, TGT warned it sees a weak holiday coming this year, but this is likely due to it having large inventories that will need to be discounted heavily in order to be sold. On the other hand, just like competitor HD, LOW raised its Q4 guidance saying that it expects a strong Q4. (Maybe more of Santa’s gifts are coming from the hardware store this year.) Also, yesterday we saw more evidence that inflation may be slowing (which could mean the pace of hikes by the Fed also eases up…and the market would love that). At any rate, tensions have eased a bit and retail earnings up to this moment are mixed at worst.

With this background, what we know for sure is that the trend is bullish and yesterday’s pullback did not break the recent range, let alone the trend. However, it did lessen extension from the T-line (8ema) just a bit. We also know that price moves in a lightning bolt, zig-zag pattern. And, once again, our zig is still in need of a zag if we are going to sustain a bullish move higher. Can Mr. Market overcome that need, sure…but only in the short-term. So, even if the bulls rule the day, don’t expect this to be a vertical rally. Normal rallies need pullbacks and there are also a lot of bears out there that still believe Q1 and Q2 will be terrible and the market should fall more to account for this fact. In addition, we still have more retail name (lesser ones) reports coming later this week. So, caution is still warranted, but so far it is looking like the consumer may still hold up (at least through year-end).

So, continue to be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! And there is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) just because you’ve had a win. Finally, keep in mind that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, you have to treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PLUG, EL, GOLD, META, SBLK, VALE, and GFI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

WMT Has Huge Beat and Raises Guidance

Stocks gapped down modestly on Monday (-0.69% in the QQQ, -0.45% in the SPY, and -0.31% in the DIA).  The three major indices rollercoastered their way sideways until about 12:30 pm.  At that point, all 3 of those indices rallied up above the gap to new highs of the day at 2 pm.  Then a slow, protracted selloff took us back down to Friday’s close by 2:45 pm before accelerating into a hard selloff the last 30 minutes.  This took us out to a close very near the lows of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied candles with long upper wicks and small lower wicks.  (In other words, black Inverted Hammer candles in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.)  It is worth noting that all 3 major indices are still extended above their T-line (8ema), especially the QQQ and SPY. 

On the day, all ten sectors were red after the late selloff with the Financial Services sector (-1.28%) leading the losses and Communications Services (-0.17%) holding up best.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 0.78%, the DIA lost 0.60%, and the QQQ lost 0.88%.  The VXX rallied to close dead flat at 16.98 and T2122 dropped and fell just outside the overbought territory at 77.88.  10-year bond yields rose a bit to 3.874% and Oil (WTI) plunged 4.22% to $85.21 per barrel.  So, all-in-all, Monday was a pause day that ended up with very modest pullbacks across the market.

In Fed news, Fed Vice-Chair Brainard gave us a study in contradiction Monday when she said that she “thinks it will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of (rate) increases.”  However, later in the speech, she said “Inflation is very high in the United States and abroad” and “Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to have confidence that inflation is moving back to target…For these reasons, we are committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”  In other words, there was a little something for both sides of the debate and the listener will interpret her words to support the position they held before she started talking.

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In stock news, Reuters reported Monday that AMZN is planning to lay off 10,000 employees from corporate and technology positions.  Elsewhere, Investing.com reports that VLKAF (Volkswagen) has reached its goal of delivering 500k electric vehicles more than a year earlier than they had forecast.  (For reference, TSLA, the leader in electric cars, has delivered 3.2 million cars total since 2015.)  After the close, Reuters reported that FDX (specifically the freight division) is furloughing an unspecified number of employees due to business conditions that are hurting shipping volumes.  In addition, ILMN announced after hours that it is cutting 5% of its global workforce. At the same time, activist investor Ancora Holdings said Monday that it will fight the sale of IAA (in which Anchora holds a 4% stake) to RBA for $7.3 billion (which was a 19% premium on the IAA price at the time of the deal).  Ancora claimed it was a poorly structured deal that resulted from a weak sale process that was not in the best interest of the shareholders.  Finally, GOOGL paid nearly $400 million to settle the allegations brought by 40 states that the tech giant illegally tracked users’ locations back in 2014 (action brought in 2018).

In BRKB (Warren Buffet) news, Monday filings of 13F documents show that Berkshire has taken a 60 million share position in TSM.  They also took a 5.75 million share in LPX and a 434k position in JEF.  In the oil industry, Berkshire added to its holdings of both CVX and OXY.  Among other big names, BRKB maintained its holdings in AAPL ($133 billion) and BAC ($38 billion).  Finally, Berkshire increased its holdings of PARA by 13 million shares.  All the stocks in which a new Berkshire position was announced were trading higher in the post-market session.

In energy news, Reuters reports that CVX is sending crews to cap old wells that are leaking methane and other gases.  This action is ahead of new regulations coming in CO after voters set limits on unused wells.  CVX estimates it will cost between $80k and $100k per well to cap each of the 500 wells in that state, each of which produces as much emissions as 22,000 cars each year.  Elsewhere, on Monday afternoon, executives at DUK and AEP told Bloomberg that they see the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act” as significantly reducing their customer’s energy bills.  They went on to say that the law will shift the majority of those savings onto the top 1% of taxpayers.  However, they had not fully analyzed the dollar value of potential savings of their customers.

So far this morning, MT, BAM, AZN, USFD, RWEOY, BDX, NIO, DDS, TDG, KELYA, SBH, SLVM, and NICE all posted beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AEG, WRK, TPR, EPC, and EYE all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, PRMW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, WE and SIX missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that USFD and PRMW raised their forward guidance.  However, BDX, NIO, TPR, SBH, WE, and YETI all lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the upside.  Hong Kong (+4.11%), Taiwan (+2.64%), and Shenzhen (+2.14%) led the region higher as tech stocks soared on the optimism caused by the Biden-Xi talks and joint statements (and despite Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data disappointing).  Meanwhile, in Europe, stocks are much more mixed and even lean to the red side at midday.  The FTSE (-0.03%), DAX (-0.05%), and CAC (+0.31%) lead the region showing more red than green in early afternoon trading.  However, as of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.33% open, the SPY is implying a +0.70% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.12% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back down to 3.812% and Oil (WTI) is off seven-tenths of a percent to $85.27/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include October PPI and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are ARMK, BERY, ENR, AQUA, HD, SE, TME, VVV, and WMT before the open. Then, after the close, AAP and GSM report.   

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, October Retail Sales, October Import/Export Price Indexes, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and a Fed speaker (Williams) report. On Thursday, we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Finally, on Friday, October Existing Home Sales are reported.

In earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ARCO, LOW, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, ZIM, BBWI, CSCO, CPA, HP, HI, NVDA, and SONO report.  Then on Thursday, we hear from BABA, BJ, BV, DOLE, KSS, M, NTES, WB, AMAT, FTCH, GPS, KEYS, PANW, POST, ROST, WSM, and WWD report.  Finally, Friday, we hear from FL, JD, and SPB.

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So far this morning, WMT, HD, SE, TME, VVV, ENR, and AQUA all posted beats on both the top and bottom lines.  (WMT and HD in particular posted significant beats on both revenue and earnings.)  Meanwhile, ARMK beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is also worth noting that WMT raised its forward guidance.

With that background, premarkets are very bullish, in part because WMT says sales are stronger than expected and its inventory glut has been significantly reduced. Between this and the HD revenue beat, traders seem to be reading through that the consumer is in much better shape than the bears had been suggesting. Still, we do have the PPI data at 8:30 am, and while it tends to follow in line with the CPI data, there is still a chance that we get a premarket shock later this morning. Be careful chasing any bullish moves. We know that price moves in a lightning bolt, zig-zag pattern. And, once again, at the moment, our zig is in need of a zag if this is going to be a sustained move higher. Can good news overcome the need, sure…but only in the short-term. So, even if the bulls rule the day, don’t expect this to be a vertical rally. In addition, we have more big retail names coming up later this week. There is no guarantee they will have had the same results that WMT and HD had last quarter. Finally, remember that we get another read on the US consumer this week as the big retail names all report.

So, continue to be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! And there is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) just because you’ve had a win. Finally, keep in mind that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, you have to treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IGT, TWOU, ELF, VRT, ANET, KGC, HZNP, GOLD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Biden Meets Xi as We Enter Retail Week

Markets opened flat on Friday.  At that point, we saw a wave of volatility until 11:30 am.  This was volatility to the upside on the SPY and QQQ and to the downside on the DIA. Then the 3 major indices got into lock-step and steadily rallied in the afternoon until we saw a small pullback at 3 pm. However, the day ended on a run back up near the high of the day.  The QQQ broke out of its “W pattern” resistance level during the day.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with wicks at both ends in the SPY and QQQ.  At the same time, the DIA printed a Dragonfly Doji candle. 

On the day, eight of the ten sectors were in the green with the Consumer Cyclical sector (+2.95%) leading the way higher while the Utility sector (-0.97%) lagged behind.  Meanwhile, the SPY gained 0.97%, the DIA gained 0.16%, and the QQQ gained 1.84%. The VXX was down 1.34% to 16.98 and T2122 remained deep in the overbought territory at 96.26.  10-year bond yields remained lower at 3.811% and Oil (WTI) spiked 2.76% to $88.86 per barrel.  So, all-in-all, Friday saw modest follow-through to Thursday’s CPI rally everywhere other than the DIA where we got a pause.

In miscellaneous news, Friday evening, Reuters reported that EL was close to a deal to buy luxury brand Tom Ford for $2.8 billion and details may be announced as soon as today.  On Sunday, TSLA said it will assist Chinese police in investigating another fatal crash (2 dead, 3 injured) of a Model Y car on November 5.  TSLA has faced claims of brake failure in the past in China and a witness to this crash (a family member of the driver) said the driver was having problems with the brake pedal, but video of the crash showed no brake lights.  In various buyback announcements, ASML authorized $12.43 billion in additional buybacks, PSX approved a $5 billion increase in its buyback plan, TMO authorized $4 billion in buybacks, and STLD added another $1.5 billion to its existing share buyback plans.

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In cryptocurrency news, the crypto world continued to be rocked by the implosion (and Friday bankruptcy) of crypto exchange FTX.  Over the weekend, it was reported that, in addition to the company’s financial woes, FTX was hacked with over $400 million in coins missing.  Even more troubling, recently FTX’s former CEO (Sam Bankman-Fried) moved $10 billion of customer funds from the FTX exchange to his own trading company (Alameda Research). From there, as much as $1.7 billion has gone “missing” in the last couple of weeks.  Meanwhile, in the same space, Crypto.com says it has now recovered $400 million of Ether coins days after that money had been “misplaced” when Crypto.com mistakenly sent 320k Ether coins to a cold wallet owned by Gate.io.  All of this turmoil has caused billions of dollars of withdrawals from crypto exchanges and untold loss of capital in the panic selling of the last week.  This has led many leading analysts in the crypto world to call for strong government regulation to re-establish trust before the entire crypto space implodes.

In energy news, Natural Gas prices plunged (5.5%) Friday as traders were trying to figure out how to interpret a blizzard of tweets that have since been called false and disinformation by the target of the tweets.  Essentially, the original tweet said that the major natural gas terminal (Freeport LNG) would remain offline for at least months due to “cracked pipes” that resulted from a fire back in June.  (Markets had been counting on this major terminal coming back online to reduce inventory.)  If true, this would mean that US export of natural gas would be severely curtailed and US inventories of natural gas would skyrocket, lowering US prices for months.  However, Freeport has now said that tweet was false, the information did not come from them (even though the original tweet was made to look like a company announcement). Meanwhile, in Congress, Coal-backed Senator Manchin has now said he does not intend to hold a re-confirmation hearing for President Biden’s Energy Secretary. This is his petty response to Biden calling for the “end of dirty energy” in the last ten days prior to last week’s election.  Nonetheless, it could leave the Energy Dept. without a head for the foreseeable future.

In dividend news, these were the largest dividend increases for last week.  ADP hiked its dividend by 20.2% to $1.25/share ($5 annualized) to be paid on January 1 for the holders of record on December 8.  MAR raised its dividend by 33.3% to $0.40 ($1.60 annualized) per share payable December 30 for holders as of November 22.  AAON hiked its semi-regular dividend by 26% to $0.24 ($0.48 annualized) payable December 16 for holders of record on November 28.  PFSW declared a special $4.50 dividend payable on December 15 for holders as of November 30.  ROP bumped its dividend by 10.1% to $0.6825 per share ($2.73 annualized) payable Jan. 23 for owners as of January 6.

So far this morning, MT, BAM, AZN, USFD, RWEOY, BDX, NIO, DDS, TDG, KELYA, SBH, SLVM, and NICE all posted beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AEG, WRK, TPR, EPC, and EYE all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, PRMW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, WE and SIX missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that USFD and PRMW raised their forward guidance.  However, BDX, NIO, TPR, SBH, WE, and YETI all lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (+1.70%), Taiwan (+1.19%), and Singapore (+1.01%) were the gainers.  Meanwhile, Japan (-1.065) Thailand (-0.85%), and South Korea (-0.34%) paced the rest of the region lower into losses.  In Europe, we see a similarly mixed picture at midday.  The FTSE (+0.26%), DAX (+0.37%), and CAC (+0.27%) are leading the region modestly higher, while 4-5 smaller exchanges are showing red in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.24% open, the SPY is implying a -0.38% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.62% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are rising again at 3.899% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.34$ to $87.77/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  However, there are two Fed speakers scheduled (Brainard at 11:30 am and Williams at 6:30 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are QFIN, ACM, XRAY, and VNTR before the open. Then, after the close, NU reports.   

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get October PPI, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report. Then Wednesday, October Retail Sales, October Import/Export Price Indexes, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and a Fed speaker (Williams) report. On Thursday, we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Finally, on Friday, October Existing Home Sales are reported.

In earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from ARMK, BERY, ENR, AQUA, HD, SE, TME, VVV, WMT, AAP, and GSM.  Wednesday, ARCO, LOW, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, ZIM, BBWI, CSCO, CPA, HP, HI, NVDA, and SONO report.  Then on Thursday, we hear from BABA, BJ, BV, DOLE, KSS, M, NTES, WB, AMAT, FTCH, GPS, KEYS, PANW, POST, ROST, WSM, and WWD report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from FL, JD, and SPB.

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Over the weekend, it became clear that Democrats will retain control of the Senate, with a chance to expand their margin depending on the December Georgia runoff. In addition, control of the House still remains up in the air. (The expected “red wave” we were supposed to see last week, simply wasn’t a wave at all and while it looks more likely the GOP will control the House, it will be by razor-thin margins at best with 10 more races not decided.) Also, as mentioned above, the cryptocurrency implosion (and massive volatility) also became more clear, with allegations that the CEO of FTX had moved and used $10 billion in customer funds to his own trading company prior to the Friday default. (Criminal investigations are now ensuing.) Then, overnight at the G20 summit, President Biden met with Chinese President Xi in a bid to cool tensions between the two largest economies in the world. In not unrelated news, China announced a 16-point plan to boost its real estate sector on Monday.

With that background, premarkets now look modestly red and are very extended (especially the QQQ). So, do some serious thinking before you chase any bullish moves. We know that price moves in a lightning bolt, zig-zag pattern. And, once again, at the moment, our zig is sorely in need of a zag if this is going to be a sustained move higher. Finally, remember that we get another read on the US consumer this week as the big retail names all report. Markets may wait on that news and give outsized importance to individual retail reports this week. So, beware of volatility.

So, continue to be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! And there is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) just because you’ve had a win. Finally, keep in mind that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, you have to treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VZ, PFE, FDX, INTC, ANET, NFLX, PLUG, PM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets Screamed Higher, Now Extended

After a pleasant surprise, stocks ripped higher in the pre-market and gapped massively higher at the open.  (SPY gapped up 3.75%, DIA gapped up 2.75%, and QQQ gapped up 4.95%.)  At that point, we saw a sideways rollercoaster that led to gains of another 0.3% (DIA) to 1.1% (QQQ) by noon.  From that point, stocks sold off modestly for an hour and recovered for another hour, bringing us back to the highs of the day at about 2 pm.  At that point we saw another wave higher the rest of the afternoon.  This action gave us a huge gap-up, followed by strong white candles with lower wicks in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  All three indices are now extended well above their T-line (8ema) and the SPY and DIA have broken out of their recent high resistance level.  DIA is also testing its long-term downtrend line (going back to the start of the year).  Meanwhile, the QQQ is testing its 50sma. 

On the day, all ten sectors were in the green with Technology (up a whopping +8.42%) and Consumer Cyclical (+7.06%) leading the way higher while the Energy sector (+2.22%) “lagged” behind.  Meanwhile, the SPY gained 5.49%, DIA gained 3.66%, and QQQ gained 7.31%.  The VXX was down 5.49% to 17.21 and T2122 spiked back up deep into the overbought territory at 97.69.  10-year bond yields continue to be very volatile and plunged back down to 3.824% and Oil (WTI) went up 0.56% to $86.31 per barrel.  So, all-in-all, Thursday was all about the huge gap with a modest morning and then an even larger afternoon follow-through that took us out near the highs.

In economic news, as mentioned above, the October CPI gave us a great surprise by coming in at 7.7% (compared to a forecast of 8.0% and September’s reading of 8.2%).  That 0.5% month-on-month drop led traders to think that inflation is coming under control and the Fed may start easing up on its rate hikes.  As a result, pre-markets rocketed higher and the bulls never looked back.  The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in slightly worse than expected at 225k (compared to the forecast of 220k and last week’s reading of 218k).  That too reinforced the idea that the economy was now slowing and that should lead the Fed to ease up soon.  Finally, in the afternoon, the October Federal Budget Balance also came in better than expected at a $88 billion deficit (compared to the expected $90 billion deficit).

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In miscellaneous news, the US Dollar fell sharply on Thursday after the CPI data.  This gave the Japanese Yen its largest gain since 2008 while the British Pound had its best day since 1985.  Meanwhile, in China, the country’s normal annual surge in exports is now in doubt after it reported October exports fell unexpectedly due to falling global demand and covid lockdowns.  Back in the US, Fed speakers on Thursday seemed to embrace more gradual rate hikes at this point.  San Francisco Fed President Daly told a virtual conference that she “supports a more gradual approach.”  At the same time, Kansas City Fed President George said “A more measured approach to rate increases may be particularly useful…”  At a separate event, Philly Fed President Harker said he believes the Fed ought to pause once rates get above 4.6% and that the Fed can always start tightening again if needed, based on data.

In stock news, GOOGL’s Waymo announced it has opened up its autonomous taxi service in Phoenix AZ after months of test runs.   Meanwhile, AZN announced it has withdrawn its application for US approval of its Covid-19 vaccine. AZN cited declining demand that is already being served by existing shots. Elsewhere, AMD released new server market CPU products Thursday that analysts say are far faster, larger (many more cores and I/O lanes), and much more power efficient than rival INTC offerings.  In CEO news, BIIB announced that the former CEO of SNY will take over the reins as BIIB on November 14.  The CEO of KDP also resigned after a violation of the company code of conduct.  However, the CEO of AIG was given a 5-year contract extension after hours.  Finally, after hours, the state of CA sued MMM and DD (and other smaller companies) in an effort to recoup the costs of clean-up of toxic and cancer-causing substances known as “forever chemicals.”  The state is alleging the two firms marketed products containing these chemicals in the state for decades despite knowing their toxicity.

After the close, FLO, BZH, STN, and TOST reported beating on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EDR missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, COMP beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that TOST raised its forward guidance.  However, COMP and EDR both lowered their forward guidance.

So far this morning, MT, BAM, AZN, USFD, RWEOY, BDX, NIO, DDS, TDG, KELYA, SBH, SLVM, and NICE all posted beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AEG, WRK, TPR, EPC, and EYE all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, PRMW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, WE and SIX missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that USFD and PRMW raised their forward guidance.  However, BDX, NIO, TPR, SBH, WE, and YETI all lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly green across the board.  Following the cue from the US, Hong Kong (+7.74%), Taiwan (+3.73%), and South Korea (+3.37%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see a more mixed picture, but still leaning toward the upside at midday.  The FTSE (-0.47%), DAX (+0.38%), and CAC (+0.27%) are leading a region that is mixed and showing modest moves in early afternoon trade.  Denmark (-1.24%) is an outlier in the region.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.35% open, the SPY is implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.39% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down again to 3.811% and Oil (WTI) is spiking more than 3% to $89.21/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday is limited to Michigan Cons. Sentiment (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to AQN before the open.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for after the close.     

So far this morning, AQN beat on the revenue line while missing on the earnings line.  However, DDL had massive misses on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AQN also lowered their forward guidance.

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After a massive rally on Thursday, US markets (both stock and bonds) seem to have declared victory over the inflation enemy and will now EXPECT the Fed to act accordingly. This just means the risk has shifted to the downside, where Fed words (and especially the December meeting) could crush those raised expectations of the bulls. Be careful buying into that line of thinking. Yes, inflation came down half of a percent, but it’s still at 7.7% and that is a far cry from the Fed’s 2% target. Even more salient is the fact that this is a single data point. All of the Fed members have been talking about tightening and staying tight until inflation has shown clear evidence of SUSTAINED progress toward the target. I’m just a country boy, but to me, one data point does not equal sustained. Either way, all we can do is focus on what the market actually does, not on what we expect the Fed will/should do.

With that background, premarkets look green, but we are very extended and coming into resistance areas in the DIA and QQQ. So, think long and hard about chasing and if you decide to do so, stop and think again. We know that price moves in a lightning bolt, zig-zag pattern. And at the moment, our zig is sorely in need of a zag if this is going to be a sustained move higher. This is born out in the distance from the T-line and the extension in the T2122 indicator. Also remember that control of the House and Senate are still up in the air. While it is a very high probability that the GOP will take the House, we will not know about the Senate for another month due to the GA runoff.

So, continue to be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! And there is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) just because you’ve had a win. Finally, keep in mind that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, you have to treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: no trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

All Eyes on October CPI With Fed in Mind

Stocks gapped lower on Wednesday (0.50% in the SPY, 0.60% in the DIA, and 0.70% in the QQQ) at the open.  From there we saw a sideways roller coaster ride in all 3 major indices until noon.  At that point, the bears stepped in to lead a steady 45-degree selloff for the remainder of the day.  All three of the major indices closed very close to their lows for the day.  This action gave us big, ugly black candles that complete Evening Star-type patterns for the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  (Not picture perfect, but show exactly the same sentiment change that an Evening Star shows.)  The DIA is sitting right at a retest of its T-line (8ema), while the SPY and QQQ gave up the T-line levels during the day.  Meanwhile, the SPY also fell back through its 50sma after having climbed above it just a day before.  Once again, only the DIA managed to reach their average volume for the day.

On the day, all ten sectors were in the red with Energy (-4.25%) leading the way lower and Utilities (-0.92%) holding up the best.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 2.05%, DIA lost 1.92%, and QQQ lost 2.31%.  The VXX was up 3.11% to 18.21 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory and back toward the bottom of the mid-range at 27.27. 10-year bond yields continue to be very volatile and fell back to 4.084% and Oil (WTI) plunged 3.72% to $85.60/barrel.  So, overall, it was a gap down and then fail to hold the level type of day.  Perhaps, most traders were waiting on today’s CPI print before making any serious moves.  However, traders continue to seek safety in the mega-cap DIA as it tries to hold the rest of the market up.

In economic news, early Wednesday morning (3 am), NY Fed President Williams told a Swiss audience that relatively stable longer-term inflation expectations are correct.  Still, he also expressed concern that some in the US are expecting short-term declines in price pressures, which is a bad expectation according to Williams.  Then at mid-morning, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a 3.925-million-barrel build of inventory (three times the size of the expected build of 1.360 million barrels).  Later in the day, the WASDE report increased both US corn and soybean production forecasts (corn was raised by 35 million bushels, and beans were raised by 33 million bushels).  However, the US corn crop is still expected to be at a three-year low.

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In stock news, MSFT faces a new European antitrust complaint from technology trade group CISPE over its cloud computing (Azure) practices.  In related news, EU antitrust regulators are now drawing up charges against META over its use of customer data.  If META loses the case, the EU would impose fines of up to 10% of the company’s global turnover  (but appeals would drag this case out for years).  Elsewhere, in another “do we really need this and is it safe” decision, ZOOM and TSLA announced they will be bringing video conferencing to TSLA vehicles.  On the legal front, a lawsuit filed in Seattle Wednesday claims that AAPL and AMZN have colluded to drive up iPhone and iPad prices, by allowing only 7 of the previous 600 resellers to stay on the AMZN platform.  (20% discounts used to be common on Amazon prior to the removal of the vast majority of AAPL product resellers.)  In addition, LLY was ordered to pay TEVA $176.5 million after losing a trial over patent infringement related to a migraine drug.  Meanwhile, COP announced it is cutting 1,100 jobs on Wednesday and expects to save up to $500 million (after taking charges for the separation costs).

In miscellaneous news, at the close on Wednesday, Binance backed out of its rescue buyout of peer exchange FTX.  This leaves the FTX exchange and its native token FTT on the brink of collapse. That fear spread all across the crypto space as Bitcoin dropped 13%, Ethereum plunged more than 15%, and BNB-USD plummeted over 16%.  On the supply chain front, railroad unions and companies have extended the strike deadline to December 4. The previously agreed cooling-off period was previously set to expire on November 19.  Finally, in China, the number of new Covid cases in Beijing jumped to the highest in five months this week.  Most alarming to the Health Ministry was that a large number of those were outside the city’s quarantine zone.  This raises the specter of even wider quarantines.

After the close, G, WYNN, JAZZ, ENS, ATO, TTEC, RNG, RXT, TTEK, CRGY, JXN, and RIVN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CPNG, and RDFN both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, LNW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, STE, APP, VET, BGS, CANO, KGC, RBT, ADV, and NGL all missed on both the top and bottom lines.

So far this morning, MT, BAM, AZN, USFD, RWEOY, BDX, NIO, DDS, TDG, KELYA, SBH, SLVM, and NICE all posted beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AEG, WRK, TPR, EPC, and EYE all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, PRMW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, WE and SIX missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that USFD and PRMW raised their forward guidance.  However, BDX, NIO, TPR, SBH, WE, and YETI all lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly down.  Singapore (+0.24%) and Malaysia (+0.252%) were the only green in the region.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.70%), Shenzhen (-1.33%), Taiwan (-0.99%), and Japan (-0.98%) led the rest of the area’s exchanges lower.  In Europe, stocks are slightly more mixed, but still lean to the red side at midday.  The FTSE (-0.03%), DAX (+0.04%), and CAC (-0.40%) lead the region on volume with Russia (+1.33%) being an outlier in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly higher start to the day. The DIA implies a +0.17% open, the SPY is implying a +0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.50% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.09% and Oil (WTI) is off four-tenths of a percent to $85.47/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include October CPI and  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), and October Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  We also hear from 4 Fed speakers (Waller at 2 am, Mester at 12:30 pm, George at 1:30 pm, and Williams at 6:35 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AZN, AZUL, BDX, BAM, CAE, CEPU, EPC, GBTG, KELYA, EYE, NICE, PRMW, RL, SBH, SIX, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WE, and YPF before the open.  Then, after the close, BZH, COMP, EDR, FLO, ITUB, STN, and TOST report.     

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get Michigan Consumer Sentiment.  In terms of Friday earnings reports, AQN reports before the open.

LTA Scanning Software

With crypto markets in mayhem (the FTX exchange may file for bankruptcy today), and control of Congress still an unknown (it looks like the GOP will win the House and the Dems may just barely hang on to the Senate with their VP tie-breaker, but neither is decided yet as races remain uncalled and/or in need of a runoff election), all eyes are on the October CPI data to come out at 8:30 am. The consensus is expecting an annual rate of 8.0%, which seems like a big ask to me since last month’s number was 8.2%. So, I think the risk is to the upside. If we do get a hotter-than-expected number, markets may shoot lower as traders realize that would likely mean the Fed needs to keep up its aggressive rate hikes. If the consensus number is hit (or even beaten), look for the bulls to run (under the expectation that would mean the Fed will ease up in December). In either case, we should know how the market will react well before the open.

With that background and before that data, it looks like the markets are set to open with a modestly green “inside day” type of price as of now. Extension is no issue at all, either from the T-line or in terms of the T2122 indicator. Bear in mind that divergence between the mega-cap DIA (which has been pulling markets higher pretty much single-handedly as of late) remains a very real factor as traders have been seeking the haven of the big, stodgy names. So, beware of the knee-jerk reaction to the CPI number as well as any surprises from election decisions or sore loser challenges in various “election denying” spots around the country. Those could cause a market blip. However, the key thing to keep in mind is that you are no The Amazing Carnac” and you can’t predict reversals. So, just follow the trend and manage your risk. Slow and steady wins the race.

Be deliberate and disciplined, but don’t be stubborn. Remember that it is 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take the loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. (You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Finally, trading is not your hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. I know the Powerball is huge right now, but give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: no trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Elections Over, CPI Tomorrow in Focus

Markets opened with a modest gap higher in the 3 major indices Tuesday (up 0.3% in the SPY and DIA and up 0.6% in the QQQ).  After immediately recrossing that gap the bulls stepped in to rally prices for 2 hours in all 3 of those indices.  Then we traded sideways in a VERY tight range for about 2 hours.  At 1:15 pm, we started a very strong selloff that crossed back down to the lows of the day and lasted until 2:30 pm.  At that point, markets reversed yet again and strongly rallied back across the morning gap and about three-quarters of the way back to the highs of the day, only for another selloff to take us back down the last 30 minutes.  This action gave us very indecisive Spinning Top candles in all 3 indices.  The body of these candles is right at the T-line (8ema) in the QQQ, just above the T-line in the SPY, and just above the breakout of the J-hook pattern in the DIA. 

It is worth noting that the DIA action happened on heavier than average volume, while the SPY and QQQ failed to reach their average volume levels.  On the day, nine of the ten sectors are in the green with only the Energy (-0.16%) in the red while the Basic Materials (+2.05%) sector was far out front and Technology (+0.81%) led the pack of sectors higher.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.52%, DIA gained 1.00%, and QQQ gained 0.71%.  The VXX is up 2.91% to 17.66 and T2122 has remained just in the overbought territory at 83.53.  10-year bond yields continue to be very volatile and fell back to 4.134% and Oil (WTI) was down 2.77% to $89.25/barrel.  So, overall, it was a very indecisive and whipsaw day punctuated by a strong morning rally, a mid-day drift, and then an afternoon selloff and rebound.  It’s also clear money was chasing the safety of the mega-cap DIA.

In economic / energy news, the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook came out Tuesday.  It said the US Q4 and Q1 natural gas prices are expected to be a whopping 17% lower than the EIA had forecast in October.  This is based on a huge increase in natural gas storage as winter approaches.  The report also said it expects natural gas and coal-fueled electricity generation to fall in 2023 from 24% (2022) to 22% (2023).  Finally, the group expects Russian oil output to decrease 14% in 2023, down to 9.3 million barrels per day.  Elsewhere, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a large unexpected build in oil inventories.  The API report shows a build of 5.618 million barrels over the week compared to a forecast of a 1.100-million-barrel increase and last week’s 6.530-million-barrel drawdown.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In stock news, GFI ended its bid to acquire AUY after a joint bid of $4.8 billion was made by AEM and PAAS.  (The GFI bid back on May 31 had been $6.7 billion, but that offer has declined to $4 billion as GFI stock declined since the end of Spring.)  Across the pond, STLA won its appeal of an EU order to pay $30 million in back taxes to Luxembourg.  This was a blow to EU rulings that are intended to stop sweetheart tax deals between EU countries and companies.  Meanwhile, Airbus announced that it delivered 60 jets in October, up from 55 in September.  This contrasts with BA, which delivered 35 jets in October down from 51 in September after a fuselage flaw caused delays in the production and delivery of 737 Max planes.  After the close, space company ASTR announced it is laying off 16% of its workforce as the faces rocket delays. Finally, META began laying off 11,000 employees at 6 am today.

In international news, there is an opposite side of the economic harm caused by Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.  The country of Georgia says it has received more than 100,000 Russian immigrants, most of which are college educated and many of whom brought significant money with them. As a result, Georgia anticipates its 2023 GDP will be close to 10% compared to pre-Russian-draft forecasts of 2.5% GSP growth.  (Of course, one assumes those people will return home someday.)  In China, the government has expanded a financing program aimed at shoring up troubled real estate developers amid that country’s growing loan defaults from that sector.  The plan will offer $34.5 billion of bond financing to private firms that are at risk of defaulting on loans.

After the close, SFM, AKAM, GO, AMC, MRC, JKHY, MASI, ARRY, NOG, GXO, OVV, NLOK, and VVX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, OXY, DAR, and OSCR reported beats on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, DOX, PRI, AMRK, and ANGI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Regrettably, DIS, NWS, NWSA, FNF, IAC, VSAT, and NVAX all missed on both the top and bottom lines.

So far this morning, PFGC, SPTN, ICL, CPRI, HGV, CLMT, NOMD, and CRBG all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, GIB, HBI, BHG, WEN, and COHR all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, DHI, RCI, MIDD, WWW, and SEAS all missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that HBI, BHG, and WWW all also lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Taiwan (+2.18%), South Korea (+1.06%), and Singapore (+0.63%) led the gains while Hong Kong (-.120%), Shenzhen (-0.79%), and Thailand (-0.62%) paced the losses.  In Europe, markets are leaning to the downside at midday.  The FTSE (-0.27%), DAX (-0.56%), and CAC (-0.35%) are typical of the early afternoon trade.  However, there are three small exchanges that are barely green and three smaller exchanges that are down more than one percent at this point.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down open as the market reacts to GOP gains in mid-term elections with cautious pessimism.  The DIA implies a -0.36% open, the SPY is implying a -0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.32% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down slightly to 4.126% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.84% to $88.15/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), the WASDE Ag Report (noon), and another Fed speaker (Williams at 3 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BHG, CLMT, CPRI, GIB, COHR, CRBG, DHI, GGB, HBI, HGV, ICL, LTH, MIDD, NOMD, PFGC, RBLX, RCI, SEAS, SWX, SPTN, TRP, TGNA, WEN, and WWW before the open.  Then, after the close, ADV, ATO, BGS, BRFS, CANO, CPNG, CRGY, ENS, FSM, G, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LNW, MFC, RBT, NGL, RXT, RDFN, RNG, RIVN, STE, TTEK, TTEC, VET, and WYNN report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, October CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, October Federal Budget Balance, and 2 Fed speakers (Mester at 1:30 pm and George at 2:30 pm) report.  Finally, on Friday, we get Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

It is a bit lighter week of earnings reports as, on Thursday, we hear from AZN, AZUL, BDX, BAM, CAE, CEPU, EPC, GBTG, KELYA, EYE, NICE, PRMW, RL, SBH, SIX, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WE, YPF, BZH, COMP, EDR, FLO, ITUB, STN, and TOST.  Finally, on Friday, AQN reports.

LTA Scanning Software

As the mid-term results settle, it appears GOP gains were less than expected, picking up control of the House, but with the Senate likely to once again come down to a runoff race in GA. Meanwhile, in the crypto world, yesterday the exchange Binance saved its competitor FTX buy buying out that company to prevent its failure. This comes after several billions of dollars were withdrawn from FTX in 72 hours as its own coin crashed. Bitcoin fell 3% overnight on the reaction. At this point, all eyes move on from elections toward Thursday’s inflation number.

With that background, it looks like the markets are set to open with a down, but “inside day” type of price. At this point, extension from the T-line is not an issue and T2122 is just barely into the overbought territory. The divergence between the mega-cap DIA (which has been pulling markets higher pretty much single-handedly as of late and the other two indices is the elephant in the room. “How long can those few stodgy mega-caps hold up the entire market” is the question. With all this said, remember that the reality of the economy and the direction of the economy has not been changed one bit by the election. It is all about perception and reaction today. So, beware of the knee-jerk reaction as well as follow-on tremors if/when sore losers start challenging the legitimacy of elections in various spots around the country. The bottom line is that we should be cautious and sustained in our actions. Don’t jump “all in” and “all out.” Slow and steady wins the race.

Be deliberate and disciplined, but don’t be stubborn. Remember that it is 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take the loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. (You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Finally, trading is not your hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. I know the Powerball is huge right now, but give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TXG, VZ, XLP, BAC. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Election Day Holds Center Stage

Stocks gapped modestly higher (by 0.30% to 0.40% across the 3 major indices) at the open Monday.  Then from 9:30 am to 2 pm, the SPY and QQQ indices rode a roller coaster back and forth the across that gap.  Over that same span, the DIA rode its own roller-coaster with a modest bullish trend.  However, at 2 pm, all 3 indices started a bit stronger bullish trend.   These afternoon rallies have lasted to the highs of the day at 3:30 pm and closed near the highs.  This action gave us a white-bodied hammer or hanging man candles in the SPY and QQQ, while the DIA prints a large-bodied white candle with a smaller lower wick. The SPY and DIA are back above their T-line (8ema), but none are above the longer-term downtrend.  It’s also worth noting the DIA has greater than average volume and both the other major indices were below average.

On the day, nine of the ten sectors are in the green with only the Utilities (-1.64%) in the red while the Energy (+1.13%) and Technology (+1.20%) sectors led the market higher.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.96%, DIA gained 1.32%, and QQQ gained 1.10%.  The VXX is down 1.1% to 17.16 and T2122 has edged up into the overbought territory at 82.87.  10-year bond yields were very volatile again and spiked to 4.216% and Oil (WTI) was down 0.82% to $91.85/barrel.  So, overall, it was an indecisive morning in the market, followed by a bullish afternoon, with the mega-cap DIA leading the way all day long.

In stock news, OUST and VLDR announced they have reached a deal to merge.  The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2023.  Elsewhere, VillageMD (which is backed by WBA) announced it is buying Summit Health for $9 billion to expand its footprint in the healthcare business (to compete with AMZN which acquired ONEM in July, and CVS which is planning to buy Signify Health).  WBA will invest $3.5 billion to support the acquisition.  In other WBA news, the company cut its stake in ABC by $1.6 billion (10 million shares).  WBA owned almost 53 million shares of ABC as of August 2.  In legal news, it was announced Monday afternoon that the CFO of TSN (also the son of the CEO and great-grandson of the founder) was arrested Sunday for trespassing and public intoxication.  In Texas, LCID filed suit against the state for blocking it from selling direct to customers in the state (as opposed to having dealerships).  Meanwhile, HD workers in Philadelphia voted against forming a union the NRLB reported.  It was reported by Bloomberg that D is considering selling its multi-billion dollar, 50% stake in the Cove Point LNG facility located in MD.  The facility is run by BRKB (which has 25% ownership) and partly owned by BAM (25% stake). Finally, RIDE announced it is getting another $170 million in funding from Taiwan contract manufacturer Foxconn (which most notably makes iPhones for AAPL). Foxconn already owns a stake in RIDE and last summer bought the namesake RIDE plant in Lordstown Ohio.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In miscellaneous news, the US Supreme Court conservative majority appeared to be inclined to challenge the regulatory power of the FTC and SEC on Monday (based on their questioning and statements during two hours of oral arguments in cases involving both agencies).  If they rule as the questioning made it appear, it will be easier for companies to appeal regulatory rulings of the Federal government.  Elsewhere, the UK is set to announce a major new deal with the US (after the COP27 Climate Summit) for the US to supply Britain with LNG.  Finally, Bloomberg reported after hours that US Consumer borrowing rose less than expected in September.  Total credit increased by $25 billion compared to August, but the average forecast was for a $30 billion increase.  This $25 included the smallest credit card borrowing increase in four months ($8.3 billion).  This falls in line with V and MA both saying that consumer spending had recently slowed.

After the close, IFF, ATVI, SANM, PTVE, WELL, CBT, LYFT, DOOR, FN, QGEN, PRIM, ACCO, PAM, CLOV, OSH, and ICUI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, FANG, BKD, and SEDG all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, ASTL, CENX, AEL, DIOD, TWI, and MTW all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, MOS, BHF, ARKO, VRM, TTWO, and BWXT all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that SANM, TPVE, ASH, FN, QGEN, and OSH all raised their forward guidance.   However, IFF, WELL, CBT, JHX, LYFT, TTWO, and BWXT all lowered their forward guidance.

So far this morning, DD, BLDR, CNHI, GFS, CG, COTY, and IGT have all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, PKI, NXST, ELAN, REYN, RPRX, HAIN, and CLVT have all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CEG, AHCO, PLTK, CCO, and NFE all beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, PRGO, DBD, TAC, PRTY, RCM, and VTNR missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that GFS and CCO raised their forward guidance while ELAN, PRGO, REYN, and RCM all lowered their own forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Shenzhen (-0.58%), Shanghai (-0.43%), and Hong Kong (-0.23%) were the only real red in the region.  Meanwhile, Japan (+1.25%), South Korea (+1.15%), and Taiwan (+0.94%) led the region higher.  In Europe, the board is more mixed on modest moves at midday.  The FTSE (-0.15%), DAX (+0.34%), and CAC (-0.05%) are typical of the region in early afternoon trade.  However, Copenhagen (+1.09%) is an outlier and larger mover.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.29% open, the SPY is implying a +0.30% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.53% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.22% and Oil (WTI) is down two-thirds of a percent to $91.17/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday is limited to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AHCO, BLDR, CG, CLVT, CCO, CNHI, CEG, COTY, DBD, DD, SSP, ELAN, EXPD, GFS, IGT, LITE, NFE, NXST, PRTY, PKI, PRGO, RCM, RPRX, REYN, SCSC, SSRM, SGRY, TAC, and VTNR before the open.  Then, after the close, AMKR, AKAM, AMC, DOX, ANGI, DAR, FNF, GO, GXO, IAC, JKHY, MASI, MRC, NLOK, NVAX, OXY, OSCR, OVV, PRI, SFM, VSAT, and DIS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories, the WASDE Ag Report, and another Fed speaker (Williams at 3 am).  Then Thursday, October CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, October Federal Budget Balance, and 2 Fed speakers (Mester at 1:30 pm and George at 2:30 pm) report.  Finally, on Friday, we get Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

It is a bit lighter week of earnings reports as, on Wednesday, BHG, CLMT, CPRI, GIB, COHR, CRBG, DHI, GGB, HBI, HGV, ICL, LTH, MIDD, NOMD, PFGC, RBLX, RCI, SEAS, SWX, SPTN, TRP, TGNA, WEN, WWW, ADV, ATO, BGS, BRFS, CANO, CPNG, CRGY, ENS, FSM, G, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LNW, MFC, RBT, NGL, RXT, RDFN, RNG, RIVN, STE, TTEK, TTEC, VET, and WYNN report.  On Thursday, we hear from AZN, AZUL, BDX, BAM, CAE, CEPU, EPC, GBTG, KELYA, EYE, NICE, PRMW, RL, SBH, SIX, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WE, YPF, BZH, COMP, EDR, FLO, ITUB, STN, and TOST.  Finally, on Friday, AQN reports.

LTA Scanning Software

All eyes are on the US mid-term elections today. However, crypto markets are all tumbling overnight as major crypto exchange Binance sold off all of its remaining FTT tokens ( the token of FTX, another crypto exchange). With that said, as mentioned above, there are some earnings in the news this morning. Chief among these was the DD report which beat on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the bulls want to retest the T-line in the QQQ today (at least going by premarket action). Meanwhile, the DIA looks to test the breakout level of its J-hook pattern and the SPY is testing its 50sma. The divergence between the mega-cap DIA and the other two main indices tells us that the market is still seeking the safety of the stodgy, traditionally less volatile Dow 30. Take that to heart. While the reality of the economy will not change tonight, Mr. Market is likely to knee-jerk stocks (for no good reason) in one direction or the other based on surprises (or non-surprises) in the results. So, don’t be in a hurry. Unless you are a volatility trader (scalper) there isn’t a lot of reason to jump in before the dust settles. Keep firm hold of your FOMO and your fear in general.

Be deliberate and disciplined, but don’t be stubborn. Remember that it is 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take the loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. (You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Finally, trading is not your hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. I know the Powerball is huge right now, but give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: EGHT, PTON, F, OUST, ACB. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bad iPhone News and China Sticks to Plan

Friday was a very volatile bull trap across all 3 major indices.  SPY gapped up 1.6%, DIA gapped 1.15% higher, and QQQ gapped 2% higher at the open.  However, this was met with an immediate selloff that recrossed the gap in the QQQ, crossed back half the gap in the DIA, and crossed back down two-thirds of the gap in the SPY.  However, then it was the bull’s turn to trap the bears as a strong rally in the second half hour took us to new highs, more than crossing up out of the gap, in all 3 major indices.  At that point, the whipsaw kicked in once again as a very strong selloff ensued for the next 75 minutes.  This process completely recrossed the opening gap again, down to new lows on the day at noon.  From there we saw a smaller sideways rollercoaster centered on the Thursday closing price in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  That left us bobbing back and forth between small green and small red moves for the day up until 2:15 pm when the bulls began a strong rally that is driving us back up the rest of the day in all 3 indices.  It left the QQQ about three-fourths of the way back up to the opening price, the SPY 90% of the way back up to the opening price, and the DIA back just above the opening price at the close.

This action is giving us gap-up, indecisive, Spinning Top candles with wick on both ends, but considerably more wick to the downside.  On the day, all ten sectors were in the green with Healthcare (+0.42%) lagging and Basic Materials (+5.26%) by far (like by 3% far) the largest gaining sector.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 1.45%, DIA gained 1.35%, and QQQ gained 1.61%.  The VXX was down 1.25% to 17.35 and T2122 was up but remains in the mid-range at 73.62.  10-year bond yields pulled back from early highs to 4.169% and Oil (WTI) gained 5% to $92.54 per barrel.  So, overall, was a very volatile and indecisive day inside a very bearish and gap-filled week. 

In economic news, October Average Hourly Earnings came in exactly as forecast at +4.7% year-on-year (compared to the expected +4.7% and well below the September value of +5.0%).  This would tend to point toward a lessening of inflationary pressure.  However, October Nonfarm Payrolls came in hot at +261k (versus the forecast +200k, but far below the September value of +315k).  Again, this tends to show we are moving in the right direction…just not as fast as forecast.  The same was true for October Private Nonfarm Payrolls which came in at +233k versus the forecast of +200k, but again far below the September value of +319k.  The October Unemployment Rate was up more than expected to 3.7% (versus a forecast of 3.6% and September’s value of 3.5%).  And finally, the October Participation Rate fell to 62.2% versus the September value of 62.3%.  So, all this data seems to lean toward Fed actions working, inflation pressures starting to lessen, and progress being made…just not as much as we would have hoped/forecast.  This is why markets gapped so strongly higher (the expectation that the FOMC will have cover to lessen hikes soon).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In stock news, Reuters reported that the US Auditors’ onsite inspection of US-listed Chinese companies has now ended.  The article’s sources said it was too early to tell if the audits met US expectations.  The FAA has approved JBLU’s request to waive the minimum flight requirement.  This allows JBLU to keep the right to keep their gates and runway slots at NY’s JFK and NJ’s Newark airports, even though it does not use them at least 80% of the time.  A state of WA court has blocked ACI from paying out the $4 billion dividend to shareholders prior to the closing of the proposed deal to be acquired by KR.  In related news, the unions representing workers at both KR and ACI, as well as 26 organizations (purported antitrust experts) have urged the FTC to block that merger.  The US Supreme Court has agreed to hear AMGN’s appeal to revive their patents on the cholesterol drug Repatha that were invalidated by legal challenges from REGN and SNY in 2019.

In miscellaneous news, Friday afternoon Bloomberg reported that US commercial property prices have plunged 13% from their peak in May (but only 8% over the last 12 months).  Then Saturday, BRKB reported operating income up 20% year-on-year for Q3, but still managed to post a $2.69 billion net loss for the quarter, mostly from insurance losses (compared to a $10.1 billion gain in Q3 of 2121).  BRKB also spent $1.05 billion on stock buybacks during the quarter (bringing the YTD total to over $5.25 billion of stock repurchased).  Elsewhere, interestingly, the CFTC said after the close Friday that currency speculators have reduced their bets on a strong dollar, with the smallest net long position at the end of October for more than a year.  There was $3.08 billion in net long dollar contracts compared to $10.21 billion net long the week before.  This may have contributed to the Dollar’s pullback versus the Euro and Yen on Friday. Finally, on Saturday, China’s Health Ministry told a press conference that (contrary to recent rumors) China will continue its Zero Covid policy.

So far this morning, BRK.B, BNTX, HE, AMG, and FOUR have all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, NRG, NI, and PLTR beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  On the other side, VTRS, and THS both missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  However, AMR missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that BTNX has raised its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the upside.  Thailand (-0.17%) was the only exchange in the red. At the same time, Hong Kong (+2.69%), Taiwan (+1.51%), and Japan (+1.21%) led the region higher. In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday.  The FTSE (-0.22%) is the worst off of the only 2 exchanges showing any red.  Meanwhile, the DAX (+0.84%) and CAC (+0.13%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day. The DIA implies a +0.54% open, the SPY is implying a +0.48% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.42% open at this hour.  The volatile 10-year bond yields are back down to 4.125% and Oil (WTI) is off more than 1% to $91.65/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AMG, AMR, BNTX, CGAU, DK, FNV, DINO, KOS, NI, NRG, THS, and VTRS before the open.  Then, after the close, ACCO, ATVI, ASTL, AEL, ARKO, ASH, BHF, BKD, BWXT, CBT, CENX, CLOV, CAPL, FANG, DIOD, FN, ICUI, IFF, JHX, LYFT, MTW, DOOR, MOS, OSH, PTVE, PRIM, SEDG, TTWO, TWI, VRM, and WELL report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we have a Fed speaker (Mester at 4:40 am).  On Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories, the WASDE Ag Report, and another Fed speaker (Williams at 4 am).  Then Thursday, October CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, October Federal Budget Balance, and 2 Fed speakers (Mester at 1:30 pm and George at 2:30 pm) report.  Finally, on Friday, we get Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

It is a bit lighter week of earnings reports as, on Tuesday, we hear from AHCO, BLDR, CG, CLVT, CCO, CNHI, CEG, COTY, DBD, DD, SSP, ELAN, EXPD, GFS, IGT, LITE, NFE, NXST, PRTY, PKI, PRGO, RCM, RPRX, REYN, SCSC, SSRM, SGRY, TAC, VTNR, AMKR, AKAM, AMC, DOX, ANGI, DAR, FNF, GO, GXO, IAC, JKHY, MASI, MRC, NLOK, NVAX, OXY, OSCR, OVV, PRI, SFM, VSAT, and DIS.  Then on Wednesday, BHG, CLMT, CPRI, GIB, COHR, CRBG, DHI, GGB, HBI, HGV, ICL, LTH, MIDD, NOMD, PFGC, RBLX, RCI, SEAS, SWX, SPTN, TRP, TGNA, WEN, WWW, ADV, ATO, BGS, BRFS, CANO, CPNG, CRGY, ENS, FSM, G, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LNW, MFC, RBT, NGL, RXT, RDFN, RNG, RIVN, STE, TTEK, TTEC, VET, and WYNN report.  On Thursday, we hear from AZN, AZUL, BDX, BAM, CAE, CEPU, EPC, GBTG, KELYA, EYE, NICE, PRMW, RL, SBH, SIX, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WE, YPF, BZH, COMP, EDR, FLO, ITUB, STN, and TOST.  Finally, on Friday, AQN reports.

LTA Scanning Software

As mentioned above, there is no scheduled economic news today. However, overnight Bloomberg reported that AAPL is now expecting to make 3 million fewer iPhone 14s than originally anticipated. So, the woes in tech land continue. Probably more importantly, over the weekend, China announced that, despite rumors to the contrary, the second-largest economy in the world is sticking to its strict “Zero Covid” policy. The one olive branch from that press conference was that Chinese officials will discourage “local over-reactions.” (Still, you have to wonder whether a local official whose livelihood and maybe life depend on lowering covid case numbers is going to worry too much about the Health Ministry thinking he “overreacted”). So, it looks like we can expect more lockdowns, Chinese markets, and supply chain disruptions this winter as the covid season kicks into higher gear again.

With that background, it looks like the bulls want to retest the T-line in the SPY, hoping to find strength instead of resistance. However, the QQQ is going to be a big anchor to drag uphill as the mega tech names impact the SPY heavily as well. Even so, it sure looks like the DIA is trying hard to form a bullish J-hook pattern, even as the SPY and QQQ have a fight on their hands just to avoid looking for new lows. That divergence tells us that the market is still seeking the safety of the stodgy mega-cap names in the DIA. Don’t be in a hurry. Let’s see how things settle out after the open before jumping in. Control your FOMO and your fear in general.

Be deliberate and disciplined, but don’t be stubborn. Remember that it is 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take the loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. (You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Finally, trading is not your hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. I know the Powerball is huge right now, but give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VTR, AMAT, FCX, GDX, AAPL. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

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