Large-caps gapped about a third of a percent higher while the QQQ gapped up six-tenths of a percent at the open Friday. Some roller-coaster volatility action all 3 markets closed near the open to print indecisive Doji-like candle on the shortened day. For the session the SPY gained 0.28% (as the S&P500 closed at an all-time high), DIA gained 0.17%, and QQQ gained 0.92%. The VXX was up slightly to 17.51 and T2122 fell a percent but remains deep in overbought territory at 95.76. 10-year bonds fell to 0.842% and Oil (WTI) fell to $45.52/barrel.
Reports came from coast to coast that Black Friday shopping foot traffic was down dramatically (over 53%). Many analysts claim the virus has accelerated the move from brick-and-mortar to online shopping, but it is worth noting that retail analysts also tell us Black Friday online sales were only up 22%. So, overall sales seem to be down 30% year-on-year on the biggest shopping day of the year. On one other interesting note, Shopify reports that 71% of online sales now ome from a mobile device.
On the vaccine front, MRNA sys new data shows their vaccine is 94% effective, 100% effective in preventing severe cases, and they have enough safety data to ask for approval. They plan to file their approval request and data later today. In the meantime, the first shipment of the PFE-BTNX joint-venture vaccine has arrived in the US and will enter the special “extreme cold” distribution system. The first vaccinations using the PFE-BTNX cavvine could come as soon as the next 2 weeks.
On the virus front itself, infections continue to rage as the US. The US numbers are thrown off a bit by 20 states that have not reported data since Wednesday, which means we will also see a “catch-up spike” in the next day or so. At any rate, US totals have risen to 13,751,337 confirmed cases and 273,101 deaths. That said, the 7-day average of new cases fell to 163,649 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,481/day. 26 states report a record number of hospitalizations. Dr. Birx (White House Task Force) urged Thanksgiving travelers to get a test and self-isolate in a plea aimed at minimizing another super-spreader holiday. This is likely to fall on deaf ears as over 6 million Americans traveled for Thanksgiving despite cautions. Ominously, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told the press Sunday that restrictions will be needed for Christmas and New Year' s Day based on what was seen at Thanksgiving.
Globally, the numbers rose to 63,172,024 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,467,129 deaths. In Europe, the UK reports that infections dropped 30% so far during their second lockdown. This falls in-line with PM Johnson announcing that the quarantine will end this week and be replaced with a national tier system by region. In Asia, Japan and South Korea report daily spikes again, with the latter will impose tighter restrictions as a result. Other countries like Indonesia are reporting record case counts. Even North Korea is admitting problems as it imposed very tight border restrictions with China in an effort to reduce new cases.
Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. Hong Kong (-2.06%), South Korea (-1.60%) led the losses among major economies. However, Indonesia (-2.96%) and Malaysia (-2.79%) were the worst hit. China reported better than expected PMI numbers on Sunday. In Europe, markets are mixed so far today. Russia (-1.07%) and Denmark (+1.06%) are outliers. Among the big 3 exchanges, the FTSE is flat (+0.15%), the DAX up (+0.49%), and CAC (-0.13%) flat. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a mixed open. The DIA is implying a fall of 0.41%, the SPY a fall of 0.20%, and the QQQ to a slight gap higher (+0.29%).
The major economic news for Monday is limited to Core PCE Price index (7:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Oct. Pending Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to ADNT before the open. Then after the close ZM reports.
This is the first day back after what, for many, was an extra-long weekend. So, we might see increased activity. Also, keep in mind that today is month-end. With little economic news or earnings reports, the market may be in a position to move. However, reports indicate Black Friday was a flop for retailers this year. That may weigh on at least the retail names.
We sit at or near all-time highs and the market is overextended by most counts. However, Mr. Market can remain overbought longer than you can take the pain of predicting reversals. So, don't predict. As always, respect the trend, support/resistance, and price action. Don't chase moves you have missed (there will be another opportunity) and stick with your trading rules. Our job as traders is consistency, not hitting home runs.
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: REGI, SDGR, GKOS, TLRY, GNUS, DAR, CDAY, EVRI, TSM, PINS, DVAX, NTRA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
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