The continuation pattern held together in the SPY with the help of a few good earnings and Mr. Powell (Fed Report). The TC200O Red/Green Trendicator has done a great job keeping us on the bullish side of the SPY. The SPY has been trending up, and on January 22, price pulled back, for the following six days price walked along the Green Dot trendline forming a continuation pattern. Yesterday the buyers/bulls broke out and closed above the recent highs. The next big warning area will be the start of $271.00. Above $271.00 also gets price action into the HRC Dotted Duece line and the 200-SMA moving averages. I am starting to see a few signs that the market is a bit stretched, moving higher into resistant levels and the T2122 chart in TC2000 flashing warning. As long as price action remains bullish, we will remain cautiously bullish. The chart below illustrates the Yellow downtrend line the bulls have beat, the yellow horizontal line pointing out more resistance and the Red/Green Trendicator bull trend. The short magenta line is pointing out the continuation pattern breakout. The most important information the next day or 2 is whether or not we get bullish follow through. Another piece of useful information to help navigate the market is that the DJ-30 is testing the $25,000 area and the 200-SMA, watch price action for clues to direction.
The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) closed back below the T-Line yesterday, below the Red/Green Trendicator showing lack of fear. Note price is testing the 200-SMA area which can always spark buying.
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In this 1-hour video,“The Power of Base Hits” Rick talks about how profiting into strength and taking base hits can make a huge difference in your bottom line and monthly income. Rick also shares what some of his trading edges are. Such as • Profiting into strength • Same basic strategies • Real-Time Alerts • Weakness/Strength • Keep it simple • Embrace losses. He will also share how he looks at charts with entries, swing targets, and stops. Don’t forget Subsribe to our YouTube channel https://bit.ly/2q2N3ZQ
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The big Apple (APPL) has reported, not as bad as thought; pre-market is up. Now we take a seat and patiently wait for the 2:00 pm bus. The FOMC decision Hawk or Dove will be out at 2:00 pm today, rate hikes, up or up more and when. Knowing this information could help the market get off its fanny and make a move one way or the other. Yesterday the SPY closed with another indecision Doji, the 5hth one in the past five days. “Think the market is waiting for something”? The chart patterns and price action remains bullish as price holds over the 50-SMA and slides sideways. The price action is trapped between a bearish downtrend line and the 200-SMA and a bullish uptrend line and the 50-SMA. Unfortunately, neither the buyers or sellers have had enough juice to move price up or down. So we patiently wait sitting along side the road for the bull or bear bus to show up. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) closed above the T-Line yesterday, but the Red/Green Trendicator is still red on the daily chart. The VIX- would have to break out over the Trendicator to consider fear. There is plenty of reasons to remain concerned or even be sitting out of this market right now. I do remain cautiously bullish.
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Earnings reports, FOMC rate decision and the US/Trade negotiation tensions
as talks resume today offer the market a volatility trifecta to navigate. Both Asian and European markets show mixed results
ahead of US/China trade talks, but the US
Futures are bullish across the board on the heels
of AAPL earnings. After the bell today MSFT
will weigh its earnings results along with several other notable reports to keep
traders on their toes.
Fast price action and volatility can be expected at the open
today as the market responds to earnings and economic news but don’t be
surprised if it slows down and becomes choppy as we wait for the Fed decision
at 2 PM. As
price tests, resistance levels keep an eye out for whipsaws and the possibility
of reversal patterns. There is so much
on the markets plate today anything is possible so set aside bias and focus on
the price action. Buckle up; it could be
a bumpy ride!
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar, we have 137 companies reporting with
notable reports from MCD, BABA, T, FB, MSFT, PYPL, QCOM, TSLA, WYNN and many
more.
Action Plan
AAPL squeaked past its
earnings report betting lowered estimates by a single penny. The good news is that was enough to please investors lifting the stock
more than $8 per share in after-hours
trading. We have another big day of
earnings with the tech bellwether, MSFT reporting after the bell today. Also this afternoon at 2 PM Eastern
we have the FOMC rate decision weighing
the mind of the market. If that’s not
enough to complicate the price action toss in the tensions of the US/China
Trade negotiations that resume today.
Currently, US Futures
are bullish across the board which is interesting due to Asian stocks closing mixed but mostly lower and
European markets also currently mixed. I would expect some fast price action this
morning as the market reacts to earnings and early economic reports such as the
ADP and GDP. However, don’t be surprised
if the market quiets down and price
action becomes choppy as we wait for the Fed decision and the chairman’s press conference. The current market condition is more suited
to day traders rather than swing & and position traders with so much market-moving news.
FOMC today and tomorrow, big earnings this week YIKES! I you ever heard me say “I don’t like earnings?” Well, I don’t. I have seen earnings kill trading accounts and set traders back months on their profit progress. And then on top of it all, we have the FOMC rate decision this week as well. As you can see from the SPY chart below, price action is walking right into the right corner of the up and down trend lines. The bigger direction decision will likely show itself once the buyers or sellers push the price above the downtrend line or below the uptrend line. The last six candles have simply been consolidation above support and below resistance. For the bulls, the price has been trending above our Red/Green trend line, and the past seven candles have held above the $260.60 support line while at the same time the bears have held price in a tight range below the downtrend line. I suspect a big decision is coming soon. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) closed once again below the T-Line and the Red/Green trend line. However, with a double bottom and a possible breakout of $21.95 would create a bullish chart pattern. There is plenty of reason to be concerned or even be sitting out of this market right now. I do remain cautiously bullish.
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As harsh as the selling might have felt during the morning
session but thus far the bulls defended index 50-day average supports.
A very good sign but with so many big earnings reports rolling our this
week we should expect more volatility over the next couple of weeks with both bullish
and bearish surprises.
Earnings season normally produces significant overnight market gaps adding complexity to your trading decisions. New US/China trade tensions and newly imposed sanctions on Venezuela also adding stumbling blocks effecting price action volatility. Keep in mind the tech bellwether AAPL reports after the bell today opening the door for a Wednesday market gap. Clearly, there is a lot to consider as we plan our risk in the day ahead. Be careful not to over-commit and stay focused on price action.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar, we have 112 companies reporting today. There
are more notable reports today than I can list here but keep in AAPL, AMD and EBAY report after the bell today.
Action Plan
After a steep decline during the morning session, the bulls went to work showing a
willingness to defend the 50-day average
support of the indexes. A good sign but
the real test will be after the market bellwether
AAPL reports after the bell this afternoon.
Currently, futures are suggesting
a modest decline this morning, but with so
many earnings reports before the bell, I would
expect something very different by the open.
New tensions this morning
as US and Russia impose sanctions on Venezuela and new tensions on the US/ China
trade negotiations as the US files criminal charges on the china mobile device maker
Huawei. Keep in mind that the FOMC
meeting begins today which will culminate with their rate decision Wednesday afternoon. AAPL’s earnings report will set the stage for
a flurry of big tech reports this week. Unfortunately, most
of them will report aftermarket close which sets the stage for significant
market gaps the next morning. Consider the
gap risk as your plan ahead and expect considerable price action volatility.
A big week of heavyweight earnings, big economic reports, and the FOMC rate decision the conditions are
right for the perfect storm for high volatility. With prices testing the long-term downtrend resistance and the short term trend up and
appearing overextended it’s unwise to ignore the possibility of a selloff. There at a lot of clues pointing to caution. However, the direction will likely come down
to earnings results and the FOMC decision.
Because many of the Tech heavyweights
report after the market closes, we should also expect the possibility of overnight
reversal gaps and plan our risk accordingly.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower while European markets are
currently lower across the board. US Futures
have been under some selling pressure all morning and currently suggest a lower
open. Stay focused on price action and
don’t be surprised to see higher volatility and challenging price action ahead.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar,
we have a very big week ahead with more notable earnings than I have the time
to note here. Make sure you’re checking earnings reports against all
current holdings and new positions you’re considering. Today we have 73 companies reporting.
Action Plan
The market has a lot to deal with over the next couple weeks,
and I would suspect the price action could
become more volatile and trading could become
more challenging. On the Economic
Calendar this week we have the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday along with the
GDP report and then the big Employment Situation number on Friday to name some
of the heavyweights. We also have a big week of earnings with many
of most market influential companies reporting which could easily make for some
wild price swings.
Price action wise we are simultaneously
in the perfect price pattern for the market to rise or fall and I believe
it will all be up to the FOMC and how the earnings come out that will decide
the direction. Believe me, I don’t want to see the market pullback, but I think we should prepare for that possibility.
Unfortunately, if it does happen there
is a high probability will begin with an overnight gap. Of course the
same is true if the news supports higher prices because many of the big techs
report after the bell. Set your bias
aside, remain flexible and focused on price as this week unfolds. Remember sometimes less is more and we don’t
have to trade every day to be successful traders.
Big week of earnings this week, double check your positions and new buys, do you want to hold them through earnings? The past few weeks have been very good to most traders, and last week was no exception. Last week the SPY was in chart pattern creation with Monday’s pop and the next four days creating a PBO, continuation pattern. If you follow the Volatility stop, you can see five dot support line. Last week also remained above the T-Line and the 50-SMA. Above $260.60 January 23rd low we will remain bullish looking for the buyers to challenge the $271.00 area. When reading a chart, I find it is helpful to look at Price Action, Support, and Resistance, The T-Line and the Red/Green Trend/Line. The price action of the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) closed Friday below the T-Line and the Red/Green trend line. Friday’s close did not produce any bullish buyers of the VIX. However, the VIX is testing the 200-SMA once again so we may see some a relief rally this week.
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A close over the T-Line today would be the 15th-day price action has to lead the T-Line into bullish battle. Price has tightened up the last three days, the Doji yesterday is the smallest of the 3 and yesterdays low was higher then Wednesdays candle. The past three candles have also had slide into last weeks support area. This week the sellers have tried to push the buyers into a hole but have failed thus far, the buyers have hung on tight to the road traveled from the December lows. A strong bull will be wanting $266.50 followed by $270.50 a strong bear will want $258.60 followed by $255.65. The VIX-X price action has failed to close above the 50-SMA after a minor challenge. But the bottom building is possible and real.
Friday is a good day to collect a fw of those profits and take a few loss if needed. It’s kinda scary holding too much over the weekend with all the political BS and the unknown. Good trading to all and have a great weekend.
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