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Will they?

April 4, 2019 by Doug Campbell

The President is meeting the Chinese Vice Premier at 4:30 Eastern today and the big question is, will they or won’t they announce a deal has been struck ending the US/China trade war? Then the next question, if they do announce a deal how will the market respond? Big questions for traders to ponder today as we wait. If that’s not enough to think about keep in mind the Employment Situation number come out before the market open on Friday.

Certainly, a lot to think about, as you plan your risk heading into Friday. As of now US Futures are pointing to flat open voting to take a wait and see approach at least for the moment. My thought is to avoid adding new risk today and maybe even take some profits to reduce my overall risk depending on the price action of the day. Friday morning could be a wild ride if an agreement is announced and could be equally nutty if there is no agreement. So Will They?

On the Calendar

We have fewer than 20 companies reporting as the 1^st quarter reports finally begin to wind down. However, we still have a few notable report s that include STZ, DLTH & ISCA.

Action Plan

During the early evening US Futures were up nearly 60 points on the news that President Trump would be meeting with the Chinese Vice Premier today. The assumption is that the US/China trade war may be close to completing a deal. The meeting is not until 4:30 ET today. However, instead of a morning pump in the futures today the markets are in more of a somber mood. Asian markets closed mixed on very light price action overnight they waiting for news on an agreement. European markets are currently flat to mostly lower as Italy is expected to cut the 2019 GDP forecast.

Consequently, US futures are currently flat shaking off the overnight highs. TSLA fell about 7% after missing on delivery estimates and warning of a negative quarterly report. Now the question is will we or won’t we hear about a trade deal with China later this afternoon and what should we do as we wait. The next question, if there is a deal will it move the market higher or will it be more of a sell the news event? Tough questions to sure and a very uncertain day ahead for traders to ponder. Also keep in mind the Employment Situation number will be out before the market opens on Friday.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Hope of a Deal

April 3, 2019 by Doug Campbell

Last nights CNBC headline that reads, “US and China are reportedly drawing closer to a final agreement” lifted markets around the world with the hope a deal is forthcoming. Although the article goes on to say both countries still have to agree on a number of important issues the bulls grabbed a hold of that headline and ran. As a result, the US Futures point to a gap up open that indicate the SPY and the QQQ will open above key resistance levels assuming the bullish sentiment holds throughout the morning.

Once again assuming the bulls have the energy to hold this new price level of support it opens the door for the market to test all-time market highs in the near future. Of course we still have to be watchful of a pop and drop pattern if buyers fail to support the morning gap so be careful not to chase. Remember we have the big employment number coming Friday morning and it’s not unusual for the market to become light and choppy as we wait.

On the Calendar

We have fewer than 30 companies reporting earing today as the first quarter reports continue. Among the most notable are CALM, DGLY & KODK.

Action Plan

Shortly after the Asian markets open CNBC reported that the US and China are drawing closer to a final trade agreement. Then went on to say, “Both countries have yet to agree on a number of important issues.” None the less the Asian markets responded bullishly to the headline closing higher across the board. Currently European markets are mixed but mostly higher with the FTSE just slightly in the red.

Consequently the US futures are bullish across the board with the Dow indicating a gap up of 100 points or more as I write this report. At the close yesterday the indexes all faced a challenging price resistance level but as of right now both the SPY and QQQ indicate they will gap through resistance at the open. That certainly opens the door for a possible new record market highs in the near future assuming the bulls can hold above resistance. Of course we must still watch for the possibility of a pop and drop pattern developing if buyers fail to support the morning gap this morning. Remember we have the big Employment Situation number coming Friday morning and it’s not uncommon for the price action to become light and choppy as we wait.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Cautiously Bullish

April 3, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Futures are up, and $287 is becoming more of a reality on the SPY. Tuesday was a day of rest for the market while Monday was a huge bull day. The wall of worry is still intact as price slowly crawls higher. If we don’t micromanage the hard right edge and every little blip the wall is easier to climb. The trend can be one of the best tools in your toolbox; the trend keeps price action honest and helps traders decide if the chart has gone from good to bad or bad to good. Two important tools after the alert system I use is Price Action (Candlesticks) and Trend. With the T2122 chart in the overbought area, we are cautiously bullish and always remind ourselves to look for the base hits by profiting into strength.

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April 2, 2019 by Rick Saddler

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Bullish Display of Power

April 2, 2019 by Doug Campbell

The first trading day of the second quarter the bulls put on a display of power charging through price resistance and breaking the last weeks chop zone. Unfortunately, the bulls stopped just short of the next price resistance hurdle in all four of the major indexes. It would be completely rational to think the momentum of yesterday bullishness would be enough to carry the index’s over this price barrier. However, it’s also quite rational to think a little pause to take a breath or even some profit-taking might be in order.

With the DIA and SPY finally making a new high we technically in a much better position, assuming the bulls can hold this newly attained elevation. The QQQ stopped short of a new high yesterday closing at price resistance while the IWM continues to languish in a downtrend. Futures are currently flat this morning but keep an eye on the Durable Good Orders report at 8:30 AM Eastern as it could set the tone for the day.

On the Calendar

We have a significant decline in earnings reports today with just over 20 companies. Notable earnings include GME, PLAY, NG & WBA.

Action Plan

After huge bullish one day rally where the Dow gained a whopping 329 points the futures indicate a more subdued open this morning. As a matter of fact, US Futures trading in the red all night and have only begun to see positive prints in the pre-market pump. Asian markets finish their trading day mixed but mostly higher overnight. European markets are bullish across the board this morning after reporting stronger than expected factory activity overshadowing another failed Brexit vote. Unless they can come to an agreement in the coming days the 5^th largest economy will leave the bloc on April 12 with no deal.

Although yesterday was a great day for the market finally breaking a week-long chop zone the indexes charts find themselves with yet another price resistance hurdle just above. Perhaps the sheer momentum of yesterday’s bullishness is enough to propel the indexes over the hurdle but we shouldn’t expect the bear to give up easily. After such a big one day move it would not be at all surprising to see a little profit-taking to test overnight futures lows or pause the action to take a breath. The Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM could set the tone for the day but the consensus estimate is expecting a decline in this potential market-moving number.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Price Above T-Line

April 2, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The SPY gapped over our Green T-Band Line and held pretty well yesterday on its way to challenge the $287 area providing the bulls can get another run put together. The 50-SMA has crossed over the 200-SMA (Golden Cross) and may put the fire back in the belly of the SPY. Price action has also put together a Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders the past 6-7 months. The black and red dotted T-Line can provide traders with a clear path to whether the buyers or sellers are in control, if your in the trade should you be out or should you be buying. The SPY T-Line has flipped from red to green, now practice patience for the entry set up. If you need help with the T-Line, please let us know. Hi, this is Rick Saddler, the creator of the T-Line. Tonight Tuesday, April 2, 2019, is our member’s get together a webinar, and I will be sharing a few T-Line tricks with you.

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Bullish Optimism

April 1, 2019 by Doug Campbell

Futures opened trading very bullish last night on optimism as the US/China trade negotiations resume in Washington DC today. The good vibes were significantly enhanced during the night when better than expected Chinese manufacturing data came to light. Not surprisingly, Asian markets closed sharply higher last night and European markets are strongly bullish this morning ahead of yet another Brexit vote.

Perhaps this is the bullish shot in the arm we have been waiting for to provide the momentum required to break through the index price resistance that has proved so stubborn over the last few weeks. Keep in mind, we still have a full plate of economic and earnings data for the market to digest this morning that could either enhance or subdue how the market open. Be careful to avoid chasing the morning open with the fear of missing out. Watch and wait for price action to prove buyers will step in to support the gap. Remember gaping into price resistance can produce those nasty pop and drop patterns so it’s wise to exercise a little patience this morning.

On the Calendar

We have 164 companies reporting on the first day of the 2^nd quarter. Among the notable reports CALM, DGLY & KODK.

Action Plan

Stronger than expected Chinese manufacturing data and optimism as the US and China resume trade negotiations today in Washington DC has futures signaling a substantial morning gap up open today. Asian markets closed bullish across the board last night and European markets are also sharply higher this morning ahead of another Brexit vote. We also have a busy Economic Calendar this morning Retail Sales, PMI Manufacturing, Business Inventories, ISM Mfg. Index and Construction Spending for the market to digest.

As I write this the Dow futures indicate a gap of more than 175 points but at one point it was more than 200 points. If this bullishness holds, index charts will be gapping above some price resistance levels or will be very near then at the open. Keep an eye on the US points this morning that has the possibility of enhancing or subduing the bullishness. Technically this could be the burst fo bullish momentum to finally breakthrough the resistance above that has proved to be such a stubborn obstacle for the last few weeks. With that said be careful not to chase the gap up open. Let’s wait to see if the buyers support the gap because the last thing we would want to see is a pop and drop pattern.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Pre-Market Sweet

April 1, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Kellogg and Keebler near a deal and China report unexpected growth in March. It looks like a new fire has been lite under the market. Pre-market up 170 points plus while I am writing the blog. With positive trading today and a positive close the $287.00 area would make a nice target for the SPY. Friday price closed near the Green upper T-Line Band which suggests the buyers where bullish going into Friday’s close. The SPY closed Friday below red V-Stops, a breakout today would flip the dot to green. The near term on the SPY the bulls would love to capture $287.00 then $293.00ish, of course, the bulls will need to push through resistance and maintain a tradable trend. Stay cautious and nimble and remember an important key to trading success is profits, think base hits and the runs will come in.

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US/China Trade Optimism

March 29, 2019 by Doug Campbell

US/China trade optimism inspired Asian markets to close higher and currently European markets are also feeling bullish ahead of another Brexit vote later this morning. As a result, the US Futures are very happy this morning suggesting a 100 point gap up in the Dow at the open. As great as that sounds be careful chasing the morning gap because of the significant resistance levels just above. Let’s wait and is if buyers step in after the open supporting this gap.

If you have yet to take some profits this week, remember gaps are gifts and this morning may be a perfect time to reduce risk by taking some profits to the bank. Be careful not to over-trade as the market tests resistance and keep in mind the bear are unlikely to give up easily. However, the hopefulness of a US/China trade deal may be just enough to inspire the bulls to keep climbing. Stay focused on price action and give consideration to the risk you carry into the weekend.

On the Calendar

On the last trading day of the first quarter we still have we still have companies more than 60 companies reporting. A good thing because 2nd quarter earnings season will kick off in about three weeks. Among those reporting BB and KMX are notable.

Action Plan

As US/China trade negotiators gave the markets a lift overnight stating the talks were productive but stopped short of providing any details. Asian markets closed higher across the board on the trader optimism. European markets are also higher across the board and later this morning the UK will once again vote on a Brexit plan that would have them leaving the EU by mid-May. That of course could create a market reaction and currencies may see some fluctuation in reaction.

Currently US Futures are also suggesting a bullish open today but except the QQQ the indexes still have significant resistance levels above. The bulls and bears have been pretty equally matched all week leaving behind indecisive candle patterns. Perhaps the positive comments on the trade negotiations is enough to inspire the bulls but they will need some significant momentum to break the bearish resistance levels above. Remember not to chase a morning gap into price resistance. Wait and see if buyers step in supporting the gap. Have a great weekend everyone.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Going to The Beach House

March 29, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Fridays are a great day to count your money and head to the Beach House. Yesterday. The SPY had a little late day action closing off it’s low and still within the chop zone of the T-Line Bands. Note the Bull or Bear story is told once the price has broken one way or the other and confirmed. I hear this morning that China is upon trade news, this could be positive for the marker or is it already baked in the charts? We closed our (T) for a nice little base hit yesterday, still holding (KO) for 16% and XOP for 12%. Yesterday we had six trade ideas for consideration and today they all 6 look great! You can find them in a yesterdays blog post.