Tariff Threat

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Tariff Threat

As the markets recovered from its FOMC temper tantrum a new 10% tariff threat created a quick 180 sending the market sharply lower breaking trends and slicing through key price supports.  If you listen to the new spin, you would think the world is coming to an end.  Yes, it was very painful, but let’s keep in mind the market had rallied more than 10% in just 2-months, and a pullback was bound to happen.  The tariff threat just kicked it into high gear.  August is typically a difficult month for the market, but this to shall pass.  Keep it in perspective, stay focused on price action, and remember price volatility is likely to remain quite high.

Overnight Asian markets closed in the red across the board in reaction to the tariff threat and the ongoing trade war.  European markets are also seeing red this morning as a result.  US Futures currently point to a modest gap down open ahead of the Employment Situation number at 8:30 AM Eastern today.  Remember, just one day ago we were rallying back toward record highs with 25% tariffs in place, and no one seemed to care that negotiations had stalled.  An additional 10% threat is just that, a threat that is still a month away from implementation.  Be careful not to get caught up in the drama.   

On the Calendar

We get a little break on the Friday Earnings Calendar with just short of 100 companies reporting today.  Among the notable reports, ARNC, CVX, XOM, HMC, LYB, NWL, QSR, STX & WPC.

Action Plan

Markets had largely recovered from the FOMC disappointment when the President issued a threat of an additional 10% tariffs on 300 Billion Chinese products.  The market did violent 180 in reaction to the threat.  The news spin on this threat would make you think the world is coming to an end.  Let’s keep in mind that the market just recently hit new record highs with 25% tariffs on Chinese goods and that just one day ago no one was concerned about the failing negotiations.  The fact is the market had largely overextended having rallied more than 10% in just 2-months.  A pullback was due, and the tariff threat was merely the catalyst.

According to the Trader,’s Almanac August has been one of the toughest trading months since 1987.  We certainly kicked it off in style yesterday as the selling created significant technical damage in the charts as it broke trends and important price support levels.  The complacency that I have been warning about for the last couple weeks suddenly turned to fear quickly spiking the VIX above a 17 handle.  Expect a lost of price volatility as we head into Friday as earnings roll out and the market reacts to the Employment Situation number at 8:30 AM Eastern.  If you’re emotional about the market, consider taking the day off and protecting your capital.  Have a relaxing weekend and come back Monday, putting all this into perspective focused and ready for the next chapter of the market to be revealed.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Market Rattled

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Market Thoughts Friday 8/2/19, More tariffs, and tweets rattle the market. The SPX closed down 26.8 points while the DJ-30 closed down 280.85 points. (Ouch) So far the SPY has hit our target levels if $300 continues to act as resistance the $291.30 line should get tested. On the SPY our dark chart has turned over on the 3-bar or 130-min time frame. On the daily chart, the SPY has closed below the 34-EMA and may test the 50-SMA today or early next week. One good thing about this drop is it should create many great opportunities when the buyers start to take control, in the meantime be careful and try not to pick bottoms, picking bottoms just does not work out so well.

The VXX trade was a heck of a trade yesterday, to view the live video [click here]. For the past couple weeks we have been talking about how the VIX was construction a base, well the last 2-days of trading has been fantastic! We have been holding VXX until yesterday and took profits, now looking for a pullback opportunity or simple another trade setup. T2122 (4wk New High/Low Ratio) went from 52 to 17.35 just yesterday. A bit overcooked, I would think. Under 20 is where we could start to see relief rallies.

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What We’re Trading

✅ Yesterday we closed our VXX trade with 75% profit [see video] and bought a little WDC and OXY. When the tariff tweets hit, it also hit a few in the portfolio. WDC still holding the T-Bands, CPB holding well up 14.2%, CVS is testing support, GE is testing support, even money on the MSFT Put, and we did add a little yesterday. OXY held very well yesterday with a bullish engulfing. X is acting as you would think an X would act. (Options) If you are interested in trading simple directional options, risking less money and BIGGER rewards send me an email, at contact us Attn: Rick

😊 Have a great trading day – Rick

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Trade-Ideas

✅ Yay, it’s Friday, and we don’t post trade ideas on Fridays. Fridays are a good day to take off early and enjoy life. Take a few profits and kick the dead wood out.

🎯Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

$50.00 discount with code: Privilege

🎯Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Powell Disappoints the Market

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Powell Disappoints the Market.  The FOMC cut the rate by 25 basis points but provided the market no clarity to the future rate cuts the market has been pricing in the last couple months, creating a strong bearish reaction yesterday afternoon.  Their action drew sharp criticism from the President, who has been trying to influence a bigger step from the committee.  None the less, yesterdays violent selloff left behind a bearish engulfing pattern on the DIA, SPY, and QQQ while also setting a strong resistance level in the market that may be difficult to breach.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight after July numbers showed their manufacturing has contracted.  European are currently mixed as well but have largely revered early losses due to better than expected earnings results.  US Futures are pointing to a modestly bullish open ahead of busy earnings and economic calendars.  Perhaps cooler heads will prevail, and the bulls will find enough inspiration in the earnings to hold index price supports, but I would not rule out the possibility of a bearish follow-through so keep a close eye on price action for clues.

On the Calendar

On the Thursday Earnings Calendar, we have the biggest day of the week with more than 460 reports.  Some of the notable reports include, ABC, MT, AMD, AVP, CC, CI, CLX, ED, CROX, DVA, DISH, DNKN, DD, ETSY, EXC, FLSR, GM, GPRO, HBI, HFC, IRM, K, LM, NNN, PINS, RMAX, RDFN, SHOP, SQ, STOR, X, VZ, W, WU, WING, WYNN, XTL, YETI, and YUM.

Action Plan

Today the market has to come to grips with the possibility that yesterday’s quarter-point rate cut could be a one and done event.  That’s much different then what the market had been pricing in over the last couple months.  Powell, in fact, provided very little clarity to the futures actions of the FOMC which of course drew sharp criticism from the President.  Traders focus will once again turn to a huge day of earnings reports, which is likely to continue offering up challenging and volatile price action.

Unfortunately, the strong down reaction yesterday broke the uptrends in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ, leaving behind large bearish engulfing patterns.  While this may have put in place a difficult to breach price resistance, let’s keep in mind that a bearish engulfing candle must follow-through to the downside.  As of now, the US Futures indicate a modestly bullish open as earnings reports roll in and ahead of the Jobless Claims, PMI, ISM, Construction Spending economic reports.  Having said that, as long as current support hold and prices don’t follow-through lower yesterdays steep decline could prove to be a one-off event.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

VIX Pops Through Construction

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Market Thoughts Thursday 8/1/19, The market didn’t much like what Mr. Powel had to say. SPX down 32 points and the DJ-30 down over 300 points. The SPY closed below our $300.00 support line triggering the target which was also hit yesterday $297.00. The next possible support lines we have drawn is at $293.60 and $291.30. Back over $300.00 would barley get the bulls back in the game? If you take a look at the 3-day chart, you can clearly see the Bearish Falling Method in place. I will point this out in the trading room today and how to handle it. Our dark chart shows the SPY has gone bearish on the 15-min and hourly charts, barely hanging on in the 2-hour chart. The 3-bar chart and up the MA’s have not crossed.

The VIX broke out of the construction we have been talking about the week and a half hitting our first target of $16.50. The VIX heating up is a sign there is fear building, based on yesterday’s chart and continued bullishness in the VIX we have target levels of $17.40 and $19.30. The T2122 4wk New High/Low Ratio is now at 52 falling from 74 and back below the 34-SMA

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What We’re Trading

✅ No closed trades yesterday nor any buys. CPB (Option) is up 6.12%m CVS is up 8.19% (Option), GE is down 4.5% (Option), KO is up 4.2% (Option), KSS is up 23% (Option), VXX is down .02 (Option), WBA is up 4.42% (Option) X is down -6.9% (Option), XLF is down 2.5% (Option) If you are interested in trading simple directional options, risking less money and BIGGER rewards send me an email, at contact us Attn: Rick

😊 Have a great trading day – Rick

Interested in SMS text alerts and reminders?

Trade-Ideas

✅ Sorry no trade ideas today due to technical troubles 

🎯Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

$50.00 discount with code: Privilege

🎯Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

FED’s On Deck

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The FED is on deck today. Hopefully, the market will this the news and start a long bullish move on the overhand the market might not care for the FED news. Yesterday the SPY gapped down, finding our $300.00 support line, and the crawled back as much as it could still leaving a gap. Any bullish strength today or tomorrow would have to carry the SPY over $301.45, a show of weakness below $300.00 would set us up for a test of the July 19 low.

The VIX closed well showing a bit of fear in the crowd, a close over $14.50 would spark a bit more fear, maybe enough to start a fire. Over $14.50 would also be over the 50-SMA. The T2122 chart has moved back up and above it’s 34-EMA closing yesterday at 74.90

Check out our 3 new YouTube videos👈

What We’re Trading

✅ No closed trades yesterday nor any buys. CPB (Option) is up 6.12%m CVS is up 8.19% (Option), GE is down 4.5% (Option), KO is up 4.2% (Option), KSS is up 23% (Option), VXX is down .02 (Option), WBA is up 4.42% (Option) X is down -6.9% (Option), XLF is down 2.5% (Option) If you are interested in trading simple directional options, risking less money and BIGGER rewards send me an email, at contact us Attn: Rick

😊 Have a great trading day – Rick

Trade-Ideas

✅ For your consideration: Here are a few charts I thought should go on the watch-List, remember to trade your trade. Trade smart and wait for the QEP → (QEP) Quality Entry Patterns). ARWR, OXY, X, SHAK, GE, BX, GS, CVS, YELP  Check Earnings!

🎯Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

$50.00 discount with code: Privilege

🎯Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

FOMC Rate Decision

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FOMC Rate Decision

Although we have more than 350 companies reporting, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern today.  In anticipation of a rate cut, the Dow and SP-500 have rallied more than 10% since the discussion began in early June.  One has to wonder after such a huge anticipation run what might occur if the FOMC disappoints the market.  One thing for sure is that the entire world is watching and we should expect considerable volatility as a result.  Trade negotiations with China ended very sharply after just half a day of conversation, but that’s likely to get lost in the shadow of the FOMC today.

Overnight, Asian market closed in the red across the board, but European markets trade mixed, however, mostly higher ahead of the FOMC decision.  US Futures are pointing to a bullish open fueled by the earnings that have come in largely better than expected this quarter.  Expect a flurry of price volatility during the morning rush as the market reacts to a big round of earnings reports but don’t be surprised if that quickly fades into choppy light action as we wait for the Fed.  Fasten your seat-belt and prepare for a wild news-driven day.

On the Calendar

On the Wednesday Earnings calendar, we reach the half-way point for this season.  We have more than 350 companies stepping up to report.  Among the notable today are, ABC, mt, ADM, AVP, CC, CI, CLX, ED, CROC, DVA, DISH, DNKN, DD, ETSY, EXC, FSLR, GM, GPRO, HBI, HFC, IRM, K, LM, NNN, PINS, RMAX, RDFN, SHOP, SQ, STOR, X, VZ, W, WU, WING, WYNN, XYL, YETI, and YUM.

Action Plan

After a choppy day of price action that left the DIA, SPY, and QQQ slightly lower on the day the big round of earnings after the bell seems to have lifted the spirit fo the bulls this morning.  AAPL beat analysts estimates and guided positively forward although iPhone sales slumped.  Today at 2 PM Eastern we will finally get the decision from the FOMC on interest rates.  However, before that occurs, we will get word on the ADP Employment numbers, Employment Cost Index, and the Petroleum Statis Report along with a very large group of earnings reports.

It’s going to be a very busy day of data, but as of now, the Futures are pointing to a bullish open.  Expect volatility to during the morning rush as trader react to earnings reports but don’t be surprised if price action becomes very light and choppy leading into the rate decision.  There has been so much news spin around this rate decision that the entire world is waiting in anticipation so expect an explosion of the volatility after the release and during the Chairmans press conference.  Buckle up it may prove to be a very bumpy ride today.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Waiting On The Fed’s

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I don’t really expect much market activity today, just more of yesterday. Right, now the market is waiting for the Fed’s announcement “Wednesday.” Yesterday’s candle traded narrow and closed with an inside day. With yesterdays close the SPY is still bullish. Price still above the trend and the past six days, there are more higher lows and higher highs than the other way around. SPY above $300 remains bullish, below $300 could put pressure on $297. If the market is happy and the SPY breaks out $302.60 and $303.20 are in the cards.

The VIX-X closed with a bullish engulf and a 3 bar pattern we call a fig Newton, a close above $13.05 could really wake the VIX up and a close above $13.30 would put a bit of pressure on the market. The 2122 chart has now turned back down headed for the lower end, closed yesterday at 46.35

What We’re Trading

✅ We closed LYFT yesterday for a loss and bought CVS with a Directional Call Option. Nice Morning Star signal on the 2-day chart. CPB is finally working its way up. GE continues to march sideways in a wedge. Pretty quick it’s going to run out of the wedge. KO up 15% took a little rest yesterday but nothing serious. KSS is in our famous RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout setup! We are up 26.8% and looking good. WBA is just humming along going nowhere. And X gave us a little Hammer yesterday; let’s see if something comes out of it. Click Here and choose Trading Room #1 Password 8020👈

😊 Have a great trading day – Rick

Trade-Ideas

✅ For your consideration: Here are a few charts I thought should go on the watch-List, remember to trade your trade. Trade smart and wait for the QEP → (QEP) Quality Entry Patterns). ANF, CONN, CAKE, BERY, CVS, EL, BKI, EXAS  Check Earnings!

$50.00 discount with code: Privilege

🎯Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wavering Confidence

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As the market waits for the FOMC rate decision, fed fund futures seem to display wavering confidence on the possible outcome.  Currently, it suggests a 73% chance of a 25 basis cut with a 50 basis cut slipping back to just 27%.  Clouding the water just a bit more a CNBC story suggests there could be up to 3 members voting against a rate cut due to stronger than expected economic indicators.  One thing for sure all we can do as traders is to wait for their decision and manage the price volatility it creates the best we can or stand aside.

Asian markets saw green across the board at the close of trading last night after the Bank of Japan decided to hold rates steady.  European, markets are currently mixed but mostly lower as they deal with some disappointing earnings results this morning.  US Futures currently point to a slightly bearish open this morning ahead of a big round of earnings reports and a busy economic calendar.  With another round of market-moving reports after the bell, today prepare for the possibility of a substantial gap Wednesday morning.

On the Calander

On the Tuesday Earnings Calendar, we have more than 290 companies expected to report results today.  Some of the notable earnings include, AAPL, AMD, AOS, AKAM, MO, ARCC, BIDU, BYD, CINF, COP, GLW, CMI, DLR, DHI, ETN, ECL, EA, LLY, EXR, FEYE, GILD, GRUB, IR, LDOS, MA, MRK, MDLZ, OKE, PAYC, PFE, PG, PAS, RL, SIRI, SNE, STAG, UAA, YUM, and XRX. 

Action Plan

Another very big day of earnings and economic data for the market to digest today as we wait for the FOMC rate decision Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern.  Today there is even more uncertainty about what the Fed might do with a story released on CNBC that there could be as many as three members voting in decent of cutting rates.  Fed fund futures now suggest a 73% chance of a 25 basis point cut and just a 27% chance of a 50 basis rate reduction. 

Futures currently suggest a slightly bearish open as earnings begin to roll out and ahead of the Personal Income, S&P Corelogic, Consumer Confidence, and Pending Home Sales economic reports.  After the bell today we have some big reports from the likes of AAPL, AMD, and many other possible market-moving events.  As a result, there is a possibility of a substantial market gap Wednesday morning.  Plan your risk carefully and expect the challenging price volatility to continue.  Although we saw a small dose of selling pressure yesterday morning, index trends remain bullish.

Trade Wisely,

Doug