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Infrastructure Plan On Tap Today

March 31, 2021 by Ed Carter

The indecisive chop continued Tuesday with a modest gap-down in the large-caps and a half percent gap-down in the QQQ. After that, all three traded in a volatile range the remainder of the day. It is worth noting that the markets did see a last-minute rally (most likely on the clearance of dark pool trades). All 3 major indices were indecisive, printing Doji candles, but the downtrend remains in tact across those indices. On the day, SPY lost 0.27%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost 0.50%. The VXX fell over 4% to 11.49 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 52.54. 10-year bond yields backed off from overnight 14-month highs to close at 1.71% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $60.45/barrel.

After hours, it was announced that President Biden will lay out his infrastructure and economic plans on Wednesday. As previously noted, the plan separates the health and child care portions of the Administration’s domestic policy. So, it will focus on roads, bridges, railways, and waterways. However, it will also include modest “green” energy infrastructure proposals and probably most important for market sentiment, the tax proposals to pay for the plan. This is expected to include an increase in corporate tax rates from 21% to 27%.

Also, after hours, the AMZN warehouse union vote in Alabama has now ended. The National Labor Relations Board has begun reviewing the eligibility of the 5,800 votes and ballot counting is expected to begin early next week and last a few days. Still, ballot objections, procedural, and legal challenges and are expected to last quite some time before a decision on the outcome of the vote is known.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,097,154 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 564,138. The number of new cases has jumped higher again to an average of 65,012 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 977 per day. The CDC reported after the close that nearly 50% of US seniors are fully vaccinated now. AR finally joined the rest of the nation and now all 50 states have announced schedules to open vaccinations to all adults. However, at the same moment AR Gov. Hutchinson also lifted the statewide mask mandate. Finally, early today PFE announced that its vaccine is 100% effective and well tolerated in kids 12-15 years of age.

Globally, the numbers rose to 128,932,176 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,818,762 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 564,934 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,790 new deaths per day. Germany limited the AZN vaccine to people over the age of 60 on Tuesday over blood clot fears. New cases and hospitalizations are rising again in CA, leading to the Ontario Premier to tell people “don’t make plans for Easter.”

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board. Malaysia (-2.22%), Indonesia (-1.42%), and India (-1.04%) led the losses, but all the major exchanges were also down just less than a percent. The only exceptions were Australia (+0.78%) and New Zealand (+0.92%). In Europe, we are seeing much more of a mixed bag so far today. At this point, the majority of exchanges are modestly red or modestly green. The exceptions are Denmark (+1.99%) and Spain (+1.59%). However, FTSE (-0.22%), DAX (-0.02%), and DAD (-0.24%) are more typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed, but modestly green open. The large-caps are flat with the DIA implying a -0.10% open and the SPY implying a +0.07% open. However, the QQQ is showing modest gains, implying a +0.56% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), Feb. Pending Home Sales (10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to AYI and WBA before the open. Then after the close, GES and MU report.

It was also reported that a slight drop in mortgage rates for the week did nothing to reverse the downtrend in financing activity, which will bleed through to banks and housing names. While there is not a lot of other economic data scheduled for today, the new infrastructure plan (and its payment mechanisms) announcement may have markets waiting on more direction. So, beware of volatility.

If you are trading in this choppy market, be sure to follow your rules, follow the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success, not hitting massive winners once in a while. So, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Another Record Close for the Dow!

March 30, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Another day and another record close for the DIA, but it’s not all the sunshine and roses the bulls hoped for as the NASDAQ continues to languish below the 50-day average. With the 10-year Treasuries topping 14-month highs this morning, inflation worries could once again weigh heavily on the tech sector, adding an uncomfortable level of market uncertainty. Leaving behind a mixed bag of results in the indexes, it’s hard to be a committed bull and just as hard to be a committed bear. That said, traders should prepare for more volatile price action such as intraday whipsaws or complete reversals.

Asian markets closed with modest gains across the board overnight, with the HSI leading the way up 0.84%. European markets are also bullish across the board this morning, showing modest gains. With bond rising and a Consumer Confidence report at 10 AM, Eastern U.S. futures currently point to a mixed open. Stay focused and flexible as investors sort out their inflation concerns.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have 76 companies listed, but a significant number of them have not verified once again. Notable reports include CHWY, BEEM, BNTX, BB, FDS, LULU, MKC, PVH, QUWI, & XL.

News and Technicals’

Another record close of Dow after a choppy price action day with the VIX climbing back above 20 handles. The 10-year Treasuries is once again pushing higher, hitting a 14-month high touching 1.77%. In a joint letter published in newspapers worldwide, global leaders called for a pandemic treaty to improve cooperation and transparency. Signers to the letter included Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French President Emmanual Macron, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The U.S., China, and Russia have not signed on the Idea as of now.

We had a mixed bag of results in the indexes yesterday, with the DIA closing at record highs while IWM left behind a bearish evening star pattern. The bulls fought pretty hard in the QQQ lifting the index to its downtrend, printing an unconvincing hanging man pattern at resistance as it continues to struggle beneath the 50-day average. Recovering from early losses, the SPY tried to breakout but by the end of the day settled back to close below Friday’s close, unable to follow-through but perhaps just taking a rest above a price support level. Unfortunatunally, the VIX popped back above 20 handles, and the absolute breadth indicator indicated a lack of bullish momentum with more stocks declining or moving sideways than rising. Futures are mixed this morning, with rising bond rates likely rising inflation concerns once again. A few notable earnings reports and a reading on Consumer Confidence numbers are ready for yet another day of volatile price action.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Bond Yields Up Again As Q1 Winds Down

March 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down modestly on Monday and followed-up with a selloff the first hour. However, this gave way to a late morning rally and an afternoon of more volatility. This left us with indecisive days in the SPY (Spinning Top) and QQQ (Doji) with the DIA being more positive. On the day, SPY closed down 0.05%, QQQ down 0.03%, and the DIA up 0.32% (closing at an all-time high close). The VXX rose over 2% to 12.01 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 68.12. Bond yields spiked again as the 10-year yield ended at 1.712% and Oil (WTI) rose over 1% to $61.64/barrel.

In miscellaneous business news, after the close, CNBC reported that TSLA has been double charging some customers for cars and are so far having trouble responding to refund demands. Earlier in the day the Suez Canal was cleared but experts expect it to take a week for the 400-ship backlog to be cleared in the waterway that 15% of global trade passes through. In the air sector, LUV placed an order for 100 of the troubled BA 737 Max plane. Finally, as the quarter winds down, Monday saw more huge dark-pool block trades by the big banks. Today it was WFC making a $2 billion block trade and MS another $500 million block trade. This follows up on $10.5 billion trades by GS, $13 billion by MS, and $20 billion by Achegos Capital (brought on by margin calls from banks on their over-levered positions) Friday that caused massive volatility in some tickers.

Overnight the 10-year bond yield spiked to a 14-month high of 1.77%. This may be a catalyst for inflation fear and the bears to step into markets today. Japan’s largest bank also warned of a $300 million loss tied to the fund at the bottom of the massive block trades the last few days. However, it appears the major US banks have dodged big losses on the situation so far.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,033,801 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 563,206. The number of new cases has jumped higher again to an average of 64,552 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 988 per day. President Biden urged states to reinstate mask mandates on Monday. This came after CDC Dir. Walensky went off script and warned of “impending doom” as she is scared the trends are going up again and way too many states are opening up too soon. The CDC also extended the eviction moratorium until June 30. On the bright side, the President said that more than 90% of adults in the US will be eligible for vaccination by April 19, with AR being the only state that has not set the timeline for expanding eligibility to all adults. The US has also administered more than 3 million vaccination per day over each of the four days.

Globally, the numbers rose to 128,341,355 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,806,709 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 557,315 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,707 new deaths per day. Brazil announced a troubling trend, with more young people contracting covid (a 500% increase in the 30-39 age group, +600% in the 40-49 group). JNJ announced it will ship Europe 200 million doses during April. However, Germany will now require a negative test to enter their country.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green, with a couple exceptions like Australia (-0.90%) and Indonesia (-1.55%). India (+2.33%) far outpaced the region with Shenzhen (+0.85%), Shanghai (+0.62%), and Taiwan (+0.48%) being more typical leaders. In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape so far today. Only Russia, Finland, and Denmark are negative and even then, basically flat. Meanwhile, the rest of the continent is modestly green. The FTSE (+0.19%), DAX (+0.63%), and CAC (+0.52%) are typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are red across the board, but also diverging. The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY implying a -0.33% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.79% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to ASO and MKC before the open. Then after the close, CHWY, LULU, and PVH report.

Bond yields are up significantly again overnight, which may well give the bears some strength as inflation fear and the underlying unease about massive block trades makes traders nervous. However, the bulls are not likely to give up easily with the DIA at all-time highs and the SPY less than half a percent for blue sky. So, be prepared for volatility today as the quarter continues to wind down.

We’ve said it many times, successful long-run trading means accepting that there are times when it’s best to sit on the sidelines. For me, times of a choppy market are at the top of that list. You have to decide for yourself if today is one of those days for you. Regardless, follow your trading rules, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

New Record High

March 29, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The Dow set a new record high with a last-minute surge as the dark pool activity consolidated to the market. Both the DIA and SPY are in good technical condition, while the QQQ struggles in a downtrend. With a light day on the earnings and economic calendar, the market may be a bit more sensitive to the news cycle today. According to the VIX, fear is finally declining, but as traders can attest, the wild whipsaws in price action remain challenging. Plan your risk carefully as that condition is likely to continue.

Asian market closed higher in a volatile session with Nomura shares plunging 16% due to a U.S. hedge fund. Credit Suisse is also sliding sharply across the pond as European markets trade modestly higher with the U.K. relaxing pandemic restrictions. The U.S. futures point to a lower open this morning but are well off of overnight lows. Be careful chasing, and don’t be surprised if overnight lows receive a test as support.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

To kick off the last 3-days of the quarter, we have 69 companies listed on the earnings calendar, with a large number of them unconfirmed. The only verified potential notable report is from CALM.

News and Technicals’

With an end-of-day surge as the dark pool trading consolidated to the market, the DIA reached a new record high, and the SPY cleared some price resistance. President Biden is under pressure considerable pressure with more than 100,000 illegal immigrants crossed the border in February. Biden is also intending to push for the 4 trillion dollar infrastructure plan before moving on to his next phase of health and family care. Let’s hope we don’t run out of ink to keep printing money! A draft study jointly written by the WHO and China says animals are the likely source of the Covid outbreak. While France and Germany face a deteriorating public health situation, the U.K. is relaxing its restrictions allowing up to six people to meet outdoors. According to reports, the massive container ship stuck in the Suez Canal is not partially floated. Still, there is no indication of how long it will take to complete the operation and resume business.

On the technical front, the indexes got a big shot in the arm in the last few minutes of trading. The DIA managed a new record high by a few ticks, and the SPY lept above some concerning price resistance. At the same time, the QQQ lagged, remaining in a downtrend, as did the IWM. After another wild session, the VIX closed below a 19-handle, suggesting fear is diminishing, but clearly, the wild intraday whipsaw continues. In this all-or-nothing market, the T2122 indicator went from an oversold to indicating a possible overbought condition in just two trading days. As the morning pump begins, futures are well off of overnight lows but, as of now, suggest a lower open. I suspect another wild week of price is ready to begin.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Nice Relief Rally

March 26, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The big question of the day, can the bulls follow-through with yesterday’s nice relief rally clearing some of the overhead price resistance? A weak 7-year bond auction has treasury yields ticking higher this morning to worry investors about coming inflation pressures. Additional pressures of the already strained supply chain may factor with the blockage of the Suez Canal that could take weeks to clear. Be careful not to chase or overtrade and remember as the futures pump up the open the pop and drops that occurred all week.

Asian markets caught some seeling relief overnight, seeing green across the board to end the week. European markets are also seeing some modest relief this morning following a better-than-expected global sentiment report. Ahead of possible market-moving economic reports and a light day on the earnings calendar, the bulls are working hard in the futures to continue yesterday’s bounce.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we have a light day with 36 companies listed but only a handful of verified reports. There are no notable reports today.

News & Technicals’

Markets enjoyed a nice relief rally yesterday despite some concerning news. North Korea has kicked up its heels again, firing two ballistic missiles increasing the foreign policy challenges for President Biden. A blockage in the Suez Canal is delaying an estimated $400 million in goods every hour, adding worries to an already strained supply chain. Estimates suggest it could take weeks to clear the blockage. Social Media once again came under fire as pressure increases to change laws placing liability on the company for the content posted. I suspect substantial social media changes are on the way.

The challenge for the market today is follow-though with yesterday’s relief rally bounce. The DIA held nicely on its uptrend, and the SPY, through briefly falling below its 50-day average, proved to hold this critical psychological level by the close. As nice as it was to see the bulls fighting back, they still have some substantial overhead resistance hurdles in their path. The 10-year treasury is ticking up this morning to 1.65% after a weak 7-year bond auction. Big tech could continue to struggle with the rising yields and the growing political pressure they face in congress. Futures suggest a bullish open ahead of potentially market-moving economic reports, so be ready for volatility. As we know, the morning pump has created nasty whipsaws in price action this week. Stay focused and flexible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Rates Up Overnight And Futures Mixed

March 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

The large-caps gapped down about four-tenths of a percent and the QQQ gapped down about six-tenths at the open. Then we saw another roller-coaster ride in the QQQ, while the large-caps made a jagged rally most of the day. This left us with a Bullish Engulfing candle in the DIA, and Piercing Candle in the SPY, and an indecisive Spinning Top in the QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.56%, DIA gained 0.65%, and QQQ lost 0.17%. The VXX fell 3% to 12.23 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold territory to 38.57. 10-year bond yields rose a bit to 1.631% and Oil (WTI) fell 4.5% to $58.44/barrel, this was odd because Brent fell sharply as the Suez Canal remains shut and 150 ships are already stacked up waiting to traverse (Europe gets most of its oil via tanker that passes through the canal, or takes at least a week longer to go around Africa).

Premarket, Fed Chair Powell told CNBC the obvious, that someday after substantial improvements, the Fed will start becoming less dovish. That plus a significant beat on the Jobless Claims and Q4 GDP fronts was enough to cause the gap-downs. Later, after-hours, the Fed also set the date (June 30) when big banks can begin buybacks and issue larger dividends. However, any bank that fails a stress test must wait until September 30 and would face higher capitalization requirements.

In other business news, the impacts of the global chip shortage continue to spread. Chinese electric car maker NIO is shutting its factory for a week due to the shortage. Congress also slammed the CEOs of FB, TWTR, and GOOG Thursday. This time the attacks were focused on failure to better stop “misinformation” related to election fraud, covid, and vaccines. The CEOs all rejected responsibility, putting the blame on former-President Trump and the general political divide of the country.

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,774,033 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 559,744. The number of new cases has ticked-up again to an average of 58,866 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 968 per day. CA, CT, and NC joined the growing list of states that are opening vaccine to all adults. President Biden has raised the goal to 200 million vaccinations within the first 100 days of his administration. This should be achievable as the country is averaging over 2.5 million vaccinations per day and the AZN vaccine is likely to be approved for emergency use soon.

Globally, the numbers rose to 126,193,313 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,769,455 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 524,097 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,073 new deaths per day. After-hours the EU announced that AZN must meet its vaccine commitments to Europe before being allowed to export any more elsewhere. Likewise, India has banned vaccine exports for the time being. This came as 3 additional regions of France went back into lockdown. In South American, Chile went back into lockdown, Peru recorded its highest number of cases so far, and Brazil reported another record number of Covid deaths Thursday.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly green, with the lone exceptions of India. Shenzhen (+2.60%), Shanghai (+1.63%), and Japan (+1.56%) led the way. In Europe, markets are also green across the board at mid-day Friday. The FTSE (+0.72%), DAD (+0.75%), and CAC (+0.49%) are typical with a few smaller exchanges up over one percent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed and more muted open. The DIA is implying a +0.32% open, the SPY implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.19% open at this point of the morning.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Feb. Goods Trade Balance and Feb. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Feb. PCE Price Index and Feb. Personal Spending (both at 9:30 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and US Federal Budget (2 pm). There are no major earnings reports on the day Friday.

Bond yields are up significantly again overnight, now approaching 1.68% on the 10-year. With inflation being the primary focus of the markets lately, that may mean we’ll see another reversal today. In either case, if you were watching the candle signals in the major indices on Thursday, remember that candle signals require follow-through. So, don’t chase reversals without that confirmation. Keep exercising some caution and prudence.

We’ve said it many times. You don’t have to trade every day. Keep your FOMO under control and consider whether you really want to be in that group of traders who’ve had their accounts smacked in the chop of the last couple weeks. Successful long-run trading means accepting that there are times when it’s best to sit on the sidelines. And for me, times when we have a choppy market are at the top of that list. So, follow your trading rules. If you are trading, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline. Also remember it’s Friday, so don’t forget to get your account ready for the weekend news cycle and to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FDX, AN, IDT, OKE, HPE, GSM, SEEL, NUE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Improving Your Chart Reading Skills | Public E-Learning

March 25, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The reading of chart price action is one of the most important skills in the business of trading. So often we get lost in the indicators, scans and wild gyrations created by news volatility. However, slowing down, putting a little more effort into price action and anyone can Improve their chart reading skills.

Improving Your Chart Reading Skills | Public E-Learning – Replay

Treasury Yields Up.

March 25, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Treasury yields are rising this morning after another frustrating whipsaw spanning more than 600 Dow points closing all four indexes lower on the day. Lower highs and broken price support levels in the SPY, QQQ, and IWM should raise caution levels while the DIA continues to enjoy bullish leadership. With the Powell speaking tour behind us, keep a close eye on those treasury yields, and overhead price resistance as the indexes search for direction and momentum.

Asian markets closed mixed overnight, with tech suffering significant losses with the SEC adopting a new law that could delist Chinese companies from U.S. Exchanges. European markets trade modestly red as another pandemic lockdown weighs on investor sentiment. Ahead of the GDP and Jobless Claims futures at trying one again to pump up premarket.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Thursday earnings calendar has 70 companies stepping up to report, but there are many unconfirmed numbers. Notable reports include BLNK, DRI, MOMO, MOV, & CLDX.

News & Technicals’

Treasury yields are pushing slightly higher again this morning, trying to hold onto bullish trends despite the very dovish Fed. AstraZeneca revised its vaccine data, indicating a lower efficacy rate after being called on the carpet for releasing outdated data. The SEC has opened an inquiry into a special purpose acquisition company (SPACs). The SEC is asking banks to provide information voluntarily, but according to the enforcement division, it could be a precursor to a formal investigation. There will be another hearing today in Congress as the CEOs of Facebook, Google, and Twitter face more questions about the spread of misinformation across social platforms. Chinese tech stocks have a rough night after the SEC adopted a law called the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act on Wednesday. Companies unwilling to meet the provisions of accounting could be de-listed from U.S. stock exchanges.

Yesterday proved to be another disappointing whipsaw that covered more than 600 Dow points. Although the technical damage is not severe except in the tech sector, investor confidence is taking some damage as the wild swings continue to chop up trading accounts. That said, the futures are once again working to pump up today’s open even after a rough night for Asian markets and a very cautious start in European indexes. As long as traders are willing to chase the moring pump, there is no reason it can’t continue. Swing and position traders I likely finding this price action very frustrating, while experienced day traders are likely having a field day with the huge whipsaws. We are finally past the Powell speaking fest but face the potential market-moving economic reports of GDP and Jobless Claims before the open. Remember, one of the great thing about being a trader is that we can choose to stand aside protecting our capital when feel you have no edge. Just because the market’s open does not mean you have to put money at risk. Ask yourself, are you addicted to risk, or does your action constitute a good business decision?

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Jobless Claims, GDP and AZN Data Revision

March 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about four-tenths of a percent Wednesday. At that point, the large-caps roller-coastered sideways until early afternoon. However, the QQQ started a jagged selloff that lasted over the same period. Then all three major indices synced-up and sold off the entire afternoon, closing on the lows. This left the DIA in a black Inverted Hammer candle and the other two major indices just as big, ugly black candles. That said, all 3 remain in the recent range and still not far from all-time highs. So, we’re still just in the chop. On the day, the SPY lost 0.51%, the DIA was flat at +0.01%, and QQQ lost 1.69%. The VXX gained a bit under 1% to 12.61 and T2122 fell again, now well into oversold territory at 10.57. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.608% and Oil (WTI) came back over 5.4% to $60.90/barrel.

During the day the big “reopening” plays (such as travel-related stocks) took a hit when the CDC said that cruise restrictions will remain in place until at least November 1. The new surges in Europe, Asia and South America may also have dampened outlooks. Still, it was the big tech names that led the fall with mega-cap FAANG names taking a big hit. As was expected, not much real news came from the second day of testimony by Treasury Sec. Yellen and Fed Chair Powell. However, Yellen did say she supports the Fed decision to allow big banks to do stock buybacks and that the bigger banks look healthier now than when the Fed had previously blocked buybacks. This led to a clash between her and Senator Warren over BlackRock, which Warren wants to be classified “too big to fail” and regulated more tightly.

The SBA says it will triple Covid recovery loans (maximum $150,000) starting April 6. On the opposite side of the coin, after hours, AAL terminated its government loan after raising $10 billion by selling bonds. In related news, JBLU is calling back more flight attendants as travel is picking up again.

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,704,292 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 558,422 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases has ticked-up again to an average of 58,269 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 999 per day. A study of 1,100 discharged patients has found that 70% of people that were hospitalized for COVID-19 had not fully recovered even 5 months after release from the hospital. The CDC reported that it is encouraged by the pace of increase in vaccinations, but is worried about the pace of restriction-easing and poorly-behaving crowds such as large groups of Spring Breakers congregating to party as well as the up-tick in cases. AZN also revised its data reported to the CDC, lowering their efficacy claim to 76% from 79% after being challenged on the timeliness and accuracy of the data.

Globally, the numbers rose to 125,542,273 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,758,757 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 513,085 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,046 new deaths per day. Germany made the surprise announcement to reverse course and open up the country over the Easter holiday weekend. Elsewhere in Europe, the EU has changed its laws to allow it to block export of vaccines (particularly PFE-BTNX and AZN). This comes as AZN is behind in shipments to the EU and the UK has not exported any vaccine to the EU.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. Japan (+1.14%) was by far the largest gainer with India (-1.54%) seeing by far the largest loss. Most of the region saw small to moderate moves in either direction. In Europe, markets are also mixed, but lean heavily red on modest trading so far today. The FTSE (-0.22%), DAX (-0.21%), and CAC (-0.19%) are typical, with some smaller exchanges remaining green. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open just on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a +0.06% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying +0.07% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Q4 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), and a number of Fed speakers (Williams at 5:30 am, Clarida at 10:10 am, Bostic at noon, and Daly at 7 pm). Major earnings reports before the open include ARKO, DOOO, CL, DRI, MOMO, and BTU. Then after the close YY and SAIC report.

With Powell and Yellen testimonies done, for now, all eyes will be watching the Q4 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims for some direction on how the economy is doing. However, these volatile chopping markets are not likely to take a new trend from that backward-looking data or from the flurry of Fed speakers today. So, continue to watch out for the intraday and intraweek swings we’ve been suffering from recently. Keep exercising some caution and prudence.

As I’ve said before, remember that you don’t have to trade every day. A successful trading for the long run needs to accept that there are times it is best to sit on the sidelines…and for me, times of high chop are at the top of that list. So, if you are trading, follow the trend according to your trading horizon, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UBER, TMO, XLNX, KLAC, PYPL, NVDA, SMH, XLK, QQQ, SNPS, MPWR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Bitcoin

March 24, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Elon Musk says you can now use bitcoin to your new Tesla, and at the same time, a Central Banker calls for more regulation on cryptocurrencies. Hmm. Yesterday’s selling came as worries over pandemic infection rates rise around the country, diminishing hopes of a summer recovery. Unfortunately, the selling added to the technical damage in the index charts. The bulls will have a lot of work ahead of them to recover overhead resistance levels in the SPY, QQQ, and now the IWM. Be careful as this choppy and whipsaw-riddled price action tends to chop up trader’s accounts.

Asian markets retreated overnight, closing red across the board with the NIKKEI and HIS down more than 2%. European markets trade with modest losses across the board as recovery concerns weighs on investors. However, here in the U.S., the premarket futures point to bullish open ahead of earnings, Durable Goods Orders, and another round of Powell testimony. Expect the choppy price volatility to continue.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have 53 companies listed, but only half verified they would reveal quarterly results. Notable reports include KBH, GIS, FUL, RH, SCVL, TCEHY, WGO & WOR.

News & Technicals’

You can now buy your new Tesla using bitcoin, but Agustin Carstens from the Bank for International Settlements calls for regulation of what he called a ‘’speculative vehicle’. Interesting considering many central banks are actively exploring their digital currencies. Intel is working hard to get back on top with plans to make chips for other companies and spend 20 billion to build two new chip plants in Arizona. The wildly speculated GME shares fell 12% as the company said it might sell stock to fund a transformation. During the conference call that at one point reached maximum capacity, the company declined to answer any questions. No surprise that the company missed on both the top and bottom line.

Yesterday was a disappointing day in the indexes as the bear returned, adding more technical damage to the charts and essentially reversing the bullish hope of just one day ago. The culprit this time is the rising infections across the U.S. and lockdown in Europe as recovery hopes diminished. However, this morning the bulls are once again trying to pump up the sentiment in the premarket. We have Powell speaking again today, and so far, he seems to have calmed the bond market with his extremely dovish comments. In this choppy market environment, I’ve been hearing from many traders having their accounts chopped to pieces. The super bullish momentum has faded, making this a stock pickers market. Chasing and complacency are very dangerous.

Trade Wisely,

Doug