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Not Much News Follows Slow Tuesday

April 7, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Tuesday and then ground sideways the rest of the day with a slight bearish direction. This left all 3 major indices in Doji-type candles. On the day the SPY lost 0.06%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost 0.07%. The VXX was flat at 10.77 and T2122 also held ground deep in the overbought territory at 95.57. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.658% during the day and Oil (WTI) gained almost 1.5% to $59.46/barrel.

After hours, LUV called back pilots to prepare for what they expect to be a very busy summer travel schedule. AMZN CEO Jeff Bezos also released a statement saying that he supports a bold infrastructure investment and the raising of the corporate tax rate. However, he stopped short of endorsing President Biden’s specific infrastructure plan or Biden’s proposed corporate tax hike to pay for the plan. (It is worth noting that AMZN paid zero in federal income taxes for 2 years and then only paid $162 million last year on $386 billion in revenue…four one-hundredths of a single percent.)

Bloomberg reported that commodity shipping rates have jumped over 50% so far this year. This includes shipping for various grains, steel, coal, and other dry goods. As of a couple weeks ago, prices were nearing the all-time highs that preceded the pandemic crash in March of 2020. In other strong economic news, JPM Chair Dimon issued a shareholder letter this morning that said he expects strong economic growth to easily continue into 2023. He also said that while stock valuations are quite high, the multi-year boom we are entering may justify those stock prices.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,560,438 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 570,260. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 65,582 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 820 per day. The CDC announced that at least 80% of teachers, school staff, and childcare workers have now gotten at least one dose of vaccine. This came the same day the White House announced that 150 million vaccine doses have been dispensed in the first 75 days of the administration. In addition, as mentioned yesterday, President Biden has moved the deadline forward by two weeks, requiring states to offer vaccine to all US adults by April 19.

Globally, the numbers rose to 133,136,691 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,889,245 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 599,421 per day. Mortality, which lags, held roughly steady at 9,988 new deaths per day. In South America, Brazil recorded its deadliest day of the pandemic on Tuesday, with 4,195 deaths. Argentina also recorded the highest number of new cases since the pandemic started. Elsewhere, there is better news as Sough Korea approved the JNJ vaccine, Russia gave Pakistan 150,000 doses of the Sputnik V vaccine, and the first patients in the UK have started to receive the newly approved MRNA vaccine.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. Thailand (-1.46%), Hong Kong (-0.91%), and Shenzhen (-0.74%) were the major losers on the day. Meanwhile, Malaysia (+1.37%), India (+0.92%), and New Zealand (+0.70%) led gainers. The rest of the region put in modest moves in either direction. In Europe, we see a similar picture at this point in the day, again on modest moves. The FTSE (+0.80%) is an outlier to the upside, with the DAX (-0.05%) and CAC (+0.10%) being much more typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.03% open, the SPY implying a +0.04% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.03% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Imports / Exports and Fed. Trade Balance (both at 8am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm). Major earnings reports are limited to LW, MSM, RPM, and SCHN before the open. There are no major reports scheduled after the close.

Overnight trading was mixed and flat following Tuesday (which was the least volatile day so far this year). Bond yield rose slightly (10-year up to 1.66%) and Oil gained a percent again overnight, implying slightly more inflation expectation. However, there was no major move that would signal strength from the bulls or bears. It may just be that Mr. Market needs to catch his breath after running “too far too fast.” Or maybe traders are just waiting for the next reason to run. Regardless, we remain extended, but in a strong bullish trend. So, keep an eye on volatility and don’t fight the tide.

As always, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can. Stick to your trading rules, and maintain that discipline. Traders that are successful in the long run do it by continually hitting singles and doubles…not by looking to hit a grand slam every time at-bat. So, take your profits when trade goals are met, stay on the right side of the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Credit Suisse Loss

April 6, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Credit Suisse reported a $4.7 billion hit as the Archegos fallout continues. However, Treasuries show a little softness this morning, a day after the DIA and SPY leap to new record highs. Oddly, as the markets buzzed with bullish energy, the oil stocks suffered declines as rising pandemic infection rates raised futures demand worries. Another puzzling contradiction is seeing the VIX move up with the indexes. The moral of the story, stay with the bullish trends but don’t become complacent.

Asian markets displayed some wild contradictions last night as the NIKKEI declined 1.30%, and the HSI surged up 1.97%. European indexes are in rally modes on recovery hopes across the pond even as Credit Suisse cuts dividends to the hedge fund losses. U.S. futures seem to be taking a hiatus this morning point to modest declines ahead of the JOLTS report and light day of earnings. Let’s get ready to rumble!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

In a light day on the earnings calendar with only eight verfied companies fessing up to quarterly results. I made a mistake looking at Tuesday’s notable reports thinking I was going over those on Monday. As a result, I will have to repeat yesterday’s stocks, LNN, MAXN,& PAYX.

News & Technicals’

The Archegos hedge fund scandal with Credit Suisse reporting a $4.7 billion loss as the fallout continues. To pass the Biden $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan Senate Leader Schumer will use budget reconciliation to pass the legislation without Republican votes, setting up another distracting political battle. Google announced it would stop using Oracle’s finance software in favor of the SAP. ORCL is indicated slightly lower this morning. Craig Irwin, a senior analyst at Roth Capital, placed a price target of $150 for Tesla. Tesla closed at $690.57 yesterday, suggesting a 78% haircut if Irwin is correct. In a bit of good news, Treasury yields are pulling back this morning, but I think it would still be wise to keep an eye on them as Congress works to print another $2.3 trillion in deficit spending.

The DIA and SPY printed fresh new record highs as recovery hopes energized the bulls. Interestingly oil stocks suffered yesterday as worries about the rising pandemic infections rates across the country could affect demand. Seemingly a direct contradiction to the overall market bullishness. Another puzzling contradiction is that the VIX moved higher yesterday at the same time the indexes were surging with bullish enthusiasm. Things that make you say, hmm? The QQQ continued its very steep rally yesterday but keep in mind there remains overhead price resistance to be dealt with before the all-clear can be sounded. Remember that it’s not unusual for the market to become a bit light and choppy as we wait for the FOMC minutes coming out tomorrow. However, the JOLTS report could keep the fires burning through the morning session.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Extended Market, European Joy Lead Day

April 6, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about three-quarters of a percent on Monday as Mr. Market caught up for having missed the ability to trade after Friday’s blowout Jobs Report. All 3 major indices then saw some morning follow-through and a sideways grind all afternoon, leaving us with gap-up strong, white bullish candles. On the day, both the DIA and SPY closed at new all-time high closes and the QQQ is back within 1.5% of its own all-time high close. For the session, SPY closed +1.40%, DIA closed up 1.12%, and QQQ closed up 2.00%. The VXX fell again to 10.76 and T2122 drove deeper into overbought territory at 96.28. 10-year bond yields were flat at 1.713% and Oil (WTI) fell sharply (almost 4.5%) to $58.73/barrel.

During the day, the US Supreme court ruled in favor of GOOG in a decade-old, multi-billion-dollar copyright infringement case brought by ORCL. Perhaps unrelated, GOOG also announced Monday they will stop using ORCL enterprise planning software and migrate to competing products from ORCL’s bitter rival SAP. In other business news, after-hours US carmakers demanded that part of the infrastructure plan be money set aside for production of chips for use in vehicle production. They are saying the global chip shortage has caused a 1.3 million chip shortage for US car and light-truck production. Finally, Credit Suisse has fired their heads of Investment Banking and of Risk Management after announcing the company took a $4.7 billion loss from the implosion of US hedge Fund Archegos Capital.

China has asked bankers in that country to reduce lending for the remainder of 2021. While inflation has not been mentioned, the purported reason for the “request” is that a surge in lending the first 2 months of the year is leading to “risk bubbles” and the government is worried about systemic issues caused by those bubbles. In related news, overnight Treasury Bond yields dipped back below 1.70% ahead of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Opening survey for February.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,496,976 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 569,282. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 65,554 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 808 per day. The CDC reported Monday that over 40% of US adults and 75% of seniors have now received at least one dose of vaccine. The White House confirmed we will meet their goal of having enough vaccine for every American by the end of May. In fact, the President is set to announce he is moving up his deadline to have every American adult eligible for vaccine by 2 weeks (to April 19).

Globally, the numbers rose to 132,507,375 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,876,052 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 591,358 per day. Mortality, which lags, held roughly steady at 9,814 new deaths per day. The UK has announced it will ease covid restrictions per schedule starting April 12. In Asia, India has imposed curfews in the capitol region of Delhi amid another rise in cases. China has also instituted mass testing near the Myanmar border after 17 new cases (40-90 new cases since March 29) after a mass influx of refugees from the post-coup crackdown by the military junta. Japan is also strengthening restrictions in 3 of its prefectures as cases rise.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. Japan (-1.30%) paced the losses while Hong Kong (+1.97%) and Taiwan (+1.02%) led the gainers. In Europe, with the lone exception of Russia, markets are strongly green across the board. The FTSE (+1.19%), DAX (+1.15%), and CAC (+0.60%) are typical of the rest of the continent with only Russia (-0.59%) in the red at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly red open. The DIA is implying a -0.09% open, the SPY implying a -0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.25% open at this point.

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is the Feb. JOLTS report (10 am). The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day is PAYX before the open.

Overnight markets are giving us a mixed message. Asia is spooked by new virus surges and China telling banks to pull back on lending to avoid systemic risk, but Europe is still in love with the recovery story as signaled by last Friday’s blowout Jobs number in the US. Bond yields ticked lower, which has been a signal of less inflation fear recently. Yet, the fear we have run “too far too fast” remains as markets are extended after Monday’s big post-holiday sugar high. So, beware of volatility as both the bulls and bears have something to hang their hats on today.

Yes, the trend is strongly bullish. However, as extended as we are, this is one of those times where the advice we hammer repeatedly starts to make some sense. Keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline. You don’t succeed by looking to hit that grand-slam homerun. You succeed by continually hitting singles and doubles in the long run. So, take your profits when trade goals are met, stay on the right side of the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GBTC, FFIV, ANF, TPR, GM, F, MVIS, KSS, IBM, RIOT, UAA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobs Report blew past expectations.

April 5, 2021 by Doug Campbell

While traders enjoyed a three-day weekend, the jobs report blew past consensus expectations adding 916,000 in March. That has the bulls working hard in the premarket point strong bullish open to follow the light volume but record-setting Thursday close. On the bullish side, the VIX is finally breaking down, but on the bearish side, treasuries ticked higher as inflation worries continue due to the vastly stronger than expected jobs number. Though we will set new records at the open, be careful not to chase already extended stocks.

Overnight Asian markets rallied to close green across the board, with the HIS leading the way, up 1.97%. European markets are also showing modest bullish across the board this morning, with tech shares gaining favor. Ahead of a light day of earnings & economic reports, the U.S futures point to a substantial gap up of more than 200 Dow points. Buckle up; it could be a somewhat volatile price action morning.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have 23 companies listed on the earnings calendar to kick off this week, but there are only 3-verified. Notable reports include LNN, MAXN, & PAYX.

New & Technicals’

During the Friday Easter shut down, the monthly government jobs report blew past the expectations, with payrolls jumping 916,000 in March. As a result, the U.S. Treasury yields edge higher in reaction to the strong jobs report’s performance due to inflation worries. Senator Roy Blunt on Sunday urged President Biden to cut his $2 trillion infrastructure plan to $615 billion with a focus on rebuilding physical infrastructure. Kevin O’Leary, chairman of O’Leary ETFs, calls for the U.S. to be “extremely aggressive” to level the playing field with China. He says that could include delisting Chinese stocks and shutting Chinese companies out of the U.S. court system. I suspect we will hear a lot more about this subject in the near future as tensions between the U.S. government & businesses grow against Chinese practices.

Although a light volume day, the SP-500 found a path to a new record high, topping 4000 for the first time in history. The Dow set another new record as well as the QQQ and IWM lagged behind. With the strong jobs report and the anticipation of a bullish 2^nd quarter earnings season, the bulls should have the upper hand as long as inflation worries stay in check. With the DIA and SPY working together again, the lagging QQQ is less of a concern, but it would wise to respect the overhead resistance if bonds continue to rally. With the VIX finally falling below support levels, perhaps, we can get past some of these wild whipsaws and get a bit more confidence in the price action. Unfortunitually, the T2122 indicator is already in a short-term overbought condition, with the gap up this morning suggesting an extreme extension, so be careful not to chase already extended stocks in fear of missing out.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Friday’s Jobs Report Driving in Premarket

April 5, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up Thursday, in particular the QQQ which gapped-up 1.3% following the overnight rollout of President Biden’s infrastructure plan and a higher-than-expected Weekly Jobless Claims number. After the open, all three major indices ground sideways the rest of the day. This ended in a ally to the highs the last half-hour of the day. This left us with a potential Hanging Man candle in the DIA and strong white bullish candles in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, DIA gained 0.38%, SPY gained to 1.08% (new all-time high), and QQQ gained 1.70%. The VXX lost another 3% to 11.05 and T2122 spiked back up deep into the overbought territory at 93.39. 10-year bond yield fell slightly (after again rising over night) to 1.714% and Oil (WTI) rose 3.5% to $61.24/barrel.

On Friday the Nonfarm Payrolls report for March came in 300,000 jobs better than was expected (at +916,000) as unemployment fell to 6%. January and February totals were also revised up by 150,000. In addition, CNBC also reported than their informal survey of economists are expecting spectacular growth in Q2 (they estimate a 10% average GDP growth). This may be great news for stock prices in Q2, but could also lead to inflation faster than has been expected…which may lead to Fed tightening faster than they have repeatedly claimed. So, as usual, there are arguments on either side of the market.

Over the weekend, TSLA announced it shipped 184,000 vehicles in Q1 while producing 180,000. All cars produced were Model 3 sedans or Model Y SUVs as production of Models S and X stopped. For reference, GM shipped 642,250, F shipped 521,350, and Stellantis (Dodge/Jeep) shipped 469,650 during the quarter. In other news, big Tech and social media companies are facing another PR nightmare as Sunday reports came out that details from about 500 million FB accounts have been found on the internet available to hackers. In another nightmare for a business, after denying it at first, AMZN admitted that their delivery and warehouse workers have been forced to urinate in bottles, because making a trip to a restroom would hurt their performance standards rating and impact their pay. In the admission, AMZN said this is a long-standing and industry-wide issue.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall plateau. The totals have risen to 31,420,331 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 568,777. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 63,471 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 833 per day. On Friday, the CDC said travel for fully-vaccinated and masked people is low risk. The Hospitality, Travel, and Tourism industries cheered loudly at this announcement. On Saturday, the CDC said a record 4.1 million vaccinations were administered and the 7-day average is now over 3 million/day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 131,993,083 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,867,681 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 585,951 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,822 new deaths per day. In South America, Chile has registered a record number of new cases each of the last several days. Brazil continues to see record numbers of covid deaths, but the ICU bed occupancy has started to lessen slightly (still over 90%) at least in Rio de Janeiro. In Europe, the UK has said the public can return to sporting events later in April and they will create a “fully vaccinated” travel passport. In less good news, the UK announced it has found 30 cases of blood clots (25 more than had previously been made public) after AZN vaccinations, which has renewed the debate over AZN vaccine safety in the UK and Europe.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Hong Kong (+1.97%) and Shenzhen (+1.02%) paced the gainers while India (-1.54%) and Thailand (-1.04%) led the losses. In Europe, Russia (-0.92%) is the only exception to green across the board (on modest moves) so far Monday. The FTSE (+0.35%), DAX (+0.66%), and CAC (0.59%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a solid green open after Friday’s blowout jobs report. The DIA is implying a +0.71% open, the SPY implying a +0.58% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.44% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Mar. Service PMI (9:45 am), Feb. Factory Orders and ISM Service PMI (both at 10 am). There are no major reports scheduled for the day.

Overnight markets seem to be pointing higher after huge gains in the Jobs Report delivered on Friday when the market was closed. Bond yields also ticked higher overnight, likely also reacting to the Jobs report and its implied potential for inflation. So, beware of volatility as both the bulls and bears have something to hang their hats on today.

With that said, the trend remains strongly bullish in the short and longer terms. So, follow the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CVX, WTI, GUSH, LUV, DVN, FANG, MRO, BKD, EOG, CSCO, TGT, ALLY, ANF, TRQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Surge Into Big Tech

April 1, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Yesterday registered a substantial surge into big tech, but the bullishness fell short of breaking through its 50-day average and remains challenged by significant overhead resistance. With bonds remaining stubbornly bullish after the unveiling of the infrastructure proposal, the question is, can we get a day of follow-though? Keep in mind with everyone thinking about the 3-day weekend ahead, the volume could become light and price action choppy after the morning economic news reaction.

Overnight Asian markets closed green across the board, lead by Hong Kong surging nearly 2%. European indexes trade modestly bullish this morning as they await several data releases. On the first trading day of April U.S. points to modest gains ahead of Jobless Claims and ISM numbers as we slide toward the Good Friday shutdown. Plan your risk carefully.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have 36 companies listed, but the majority are unconfirmed. Looking through the list, I can only come up with one notable report coming from KMX.

News & Technicals’

There was a surge into big tech yesterday, but overall it was a mixed bag of results, with profit-takers coming in at the close. President Biden’s $2trillion infrastructure is getting a mixed response as worries about the significant tax increases will slow economic and job recovery. Microsoft won a $21.9 billion contract for augmented reality headsets giving the stock a boost into yesterday’s close. Although the 10-year treasuries softened a bit yesterday, they stubbornly hold above 1.71% as inflation concerns continue.

While there was a general sense of bullishness in the market yesterday, in reality, the DIA, SPY, and IWM were in a resting mode while big tech enjoyed a substantial surge of energy. However, at the end of the day, the QQQ could not break above its 50-day average and still has considerable overhead resistance. The SPY missed setting a record high by just a few ticks and then ran into some profit-takers, which honestly surprised me during the end-of-quarter window dressing. The Absolute Breadth Index continues to raise the concern that overall momentum is lacking, and the nasty whipsaw of late keeps us guessing what comes next as the VIX chops with uncertainty. Plan your risk carefully as we head into the Good Friday shutdown and the 3-day Easter weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Infrastructure Plan and Unemployment

April 1, 2021 by Ed Carter

The large caps gapped slightly higher while the QQQ gapped up about half a percent. The large-caps then ground sideways the rest of the day while the QQQ saw some follow-through before starting its sideways grind at 11am. All three backed off the highs at the end of the day. This left all three with upper wicks. On the day, SPY gained 0.41%, DIA lost 0.19%, and QQQ gained 1.53%. The VXX fell again to 11.40 and T2122 roe a bit but remains in the mid-range at 60.29. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.739% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $59.39.

After the close, President Biden announced his $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan. It calls for $621 billion in transport infrastructure, $580 billion into manufacturing (R&D and job training), $300 billion for drinking water infrastructure, $300 billion into affordable housing construction, and $400 billion for care of elderly/disabled Americans. The primary way it proposes paying for the plan is the reversion of the Corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% (it was 35% through 2017).

In other government news, after hours, Treasury Sec. Yellen has restarted the hedge fund regulatory panel as part of an overhaul of financial regulation systems. Also included in the oversight mandate of this panel will be the Treasury bond, Mutual Fund, and Money Market segments of Wall Street. This came as the SEC also announced it has opened a probe into the Archegos fund that caused the massive block trades Friday-Tuesday due to margin call on that fund’s levered positions.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,166,344 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 565,256. The number of new cases has jumped higher again to an average of 65,308 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 932 per day. In vaccine news, a trial of the MRNA vaccine booster shot aimed at the South African variant is now underway. In addition, PFE announced that the ongoing Phase 3 trial has shown its vaccine protection lasts at least 6 months (better than the 90-day estimate the company originally offered) and also appears to be 91% effective against the South African variant. In other related news, GOOG also announced that it is speeding up reopening offices and will put limits on future remote work. DAL also told reporters that it is eliminating empty middle seats due to a surge in air travel demand.

Globally, the numbers rose to 129,606,380 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,830,726 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 575,440 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 10,041 new deaths per day. French President Macron called for another national lockdown as cases have spikes. Meanwhile Austria is signing a deal to buy 1 million doses of the Russian Sputnik vaccine amid AZN deadline misses and general vaccine shortages.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board, with the lone exception of New Zealand (-0.58%). Hong Kong (+1.97%), Shenzhen (+1.46%), and India (+1.20%) led the gainers, but the surge was about two-thirds of a percent on average. In Europe, we see green all the way across the board so far today. Some of the smaller exchanges are running faster, but the FTSE (+0.49%), DAX (+0.35%), and CAC (+0.25%) are fairly typical of the continent at this hour. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to a green, if uneven, open. The DIA (+0.02%) is flat, while the SPY is implying a +0.28% open and the QQQ is implying a +0.95% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to KMX before the open. There are no major reports after the close.

Bond rates came down significantly overnight but remain above 1.71%. With only Weekly Jobless Claims to come as a different driver, the market action today may be a referendum on the specifics of the President’s proposed infrastructure plan or the tax scheme that is proposed to pay for that investment. So, beware of volatility.

As we always say, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline. Be sure to follow your trading rules, follow the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. And if you don’t have an edge (like being on the right side of a trend), then think twice before trading.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Infrastructure Proposal

March 31, 2021 by Doug Campbell

This afternoon President Biden will unveil his more than $2 trillion infrastructure proposal as the first part of his recovery plan. If approved, it will raise the Corporate Income tax to 28%. Inflation concerns continue to weigh on investors’ minds, with the 10-year treasuries holding above 1.73% and the Case-Shiller, showing that housing prices grew faster over year over year over more than 15 years. Jobs data will be in focus the rest of the week, with Private Payrolls coming in before today’s open.

Overnight Asian markets saw declines across the board after coming under criticism for withholding pandemic data in its report to the WHO. European markets trade with modest losses this morning, worried about rising inflation. Ahead of a busy day of earnings, economic data, and the unveiling of the infrastructure plan, U.S. futures point to flat and mixed open.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have more than 100 companies listed, but a considerable number of them are not verified. Notable reports include WBA, MU, AYI, AESE, FUV, CONN, DGLY, GES, NG, & VRNT.

News and Technicals’

President Biden will unveil his infrastructure plan with more than $2 trillion in government spending over the next 8-years. Included in the proposal is a Corporate Tax increase to 28%. The second part of his plan will include Health Care and child care spending of another $2 trillion. The Amazon-backed food delivery company, Deliveroo, had a rough beginning in its London IPO, dropping over 30%. Those pesky 10-year Treasury bonds pulled back slightly yesterday but currently holding a 1.73% keeping the pressure on inflation worries. The Fed is also under pressure after the Case-Shiller Index posted housing prices were up 11.2% year over year, which is the most significant annual increase in more than 15-years. Critics point out the Fed is responsible for the sharp inflationary spike in housing due to its commitment to near-zero rates and its continued buying of mortgages- backed securities that total more than $2.2 trillion. The Fed now owns a full 1/3^rd of the mortgage-backed securities market!

On the technical front, the DIA trend remains very bullish, and SPY is in good shape holding above price supports though it still struggles to join in on the record-breaking levels. IWM had a good day with the bulls defending critical price support as the financial sector gained ground. The QQQ continues to languish under its 50-day average, weighed down by rising bond rates. Jobs data will focus on the remainder of the beginning, with the private payroll number this morning. Keep in mind as you plan your risk forward of the Good Friday market shutdown.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Infrastructure Plan On Tap Today

March 31, 2021 by Ed Carter

The indecisive chop continued Tuesday with a modest gap-down in the large-caps and a half percent gap-down in the QQQ. After that, all three traded in a volatile range the remainder of the day. It is worth noting that the markets did see a last-minute rally (most likely on the clearance of dark pool trades). All 3 major indices were indecisive, printing Doji candles, but the downtrend remains in tact across those indices. On the day, SPY lost 0.27%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost 0.50%. The VXX fell over 4% to 11.49 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 52.54. 10-year bond yields backed off from overnight 14-month highs to close at 1.71% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $60.45/barrel.

After hours, it was announced that President Biden will lay out his infrastructure and economic plans on Wednesday. As previously noted, the plan separates the health and child care portions of the Administration’s domestic policy. So, it will focus on roads, bridges, railways, and waterways. However, it will also include modest “green” energy infrastructure proposals and probably most important for market sentiment, the tax proposals to pay for the plan. This is expected to include an increase in corporate tax rates from 21% to 27%.

Also, after hours, the AMZN warehouse union vote in Alabama has now ended. The National Labor Relations Board has begun reviewing the eligibility of the 5,800 votes and ballot counting is expected to begin early next week and last a few days. Still, ballot objections, procedural, and legal challenges and are expected to last quite some time before a decision on the outcome of the vote is known.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,097,154 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 564,138. The number of new cases has jumped higher again to an average of 65,012 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 977 per day. The CDC reported after the close that nearly 50% of US seniors are fully vaccinated now. AR finally joined the rest of the nation and now all 50 states have announced schedules to open vaccinations to all adults. However, at the same moment AR Gov. Hutchinson also lifted the statewide mask mandate. Finally, early today PFE announced that its vaccine is 100% effective and well tolerated in kids 12-15 years of age.

Globally, the numbers rose to 128,932,176 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,818,762 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 564,934 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,790 new deaths per day. Germany limited the AZN vaccine to people over the age of 60 on Tuesday over blood clot fears. New cases and hospitalizations are rising again in CA, leading to the Ontario Premier to tell people “don’t make plans for Easter.”

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board. Malaysia (-2.22%), Indonesia (-1.42%), and India (-1.04%) led the losses, but all the major exchanges were also down just less than a percent. The only exceptions were Australia (+0.78%) and New Zealand (+0.92%). In Europe, we are seeing much more of a mixed bag so far today. At this point, the majority of exchanges are modestly red or modestly green. The exceptions are Denmark (+1.99%) and Spain (+1.59%). However, FTSE (-0.22%), DAX (-0.02%), and DAD (-0.24%) are more typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed, but modestly green open. The large-caps are flat with the DIA implying a -0.10% open and the SPY implying a +0.07% open. However, the QQQ is showing modest gains, implying a +0.56% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), Feb. Pending Home Sales (10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to AYI and WBA before the open. Then after the close, GES and MU report.

It was also reported that a slight drop in mortgage rates for the week did nothing to reverse the downtrend in financing activity, which will bleed through to banks and housing names. While there is not a lot of other economic data scheduled for today, the new infrastructure plan (and its payment mechanisms) announcement may have markets waiting on more direction. So, beware of volatility.

If you are trading in this choppy market, be sure to follow your rules, follow the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success, not hitting massive winners once in a while. So, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Another Record Close for the Dow!

March 30, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Another day and another record close for the DIA, but it’s not all the sunshine and roses the bulls hoped for as the NASDAQ continues to languish below the 50-day average. With the 10-year Treasuries topping 14-month highs this morning, inflation worries could once again weigh heavily on the tech sector, adding an uncomfortable level of market uncertainty. Leaving behind a mixed bag of results in the indexes, it’s hard to be a committed bull and just as hard to be a committed bear. That said, traders should prepare for more volatile price action such as intraday whipsaws or complete reversals.

Asian markets closed with modest gains across the board overnight, with the HSI leading the way up 0.84%. European markets are also bullish across the board this morning, showing modest gains. With bond rising and a Consumer Confidence report at 10 AM, Eastern U.S. futures currently point to a mixed open. Stay focused and flexible as investors sort out their inflation concerns.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have 76 companies listed, but a significant number of them have not verified once again. Notable reports include CHWY, BEEM, BNTX, BB, FDS, LULU, MKC, PVH, QUWI, & XL.

News and Technicals’

Another record close of Dow after a choppy price action day with the VIX climbing back above 20 handles. The 10-year Treasuries is once again pushing higher, hitting a 14-month high touching 1.77%. In a joint letter published in newspapers worldwide, global leaders called for a pandemic treaty to improve cooperation and transparency. Signers to the letter included Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French President Emmanual Macron, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The U.S., China, and Russia have not signed on the Idea as of now.

We had a mixed bag of results in the indexes yesterday, with the DIA closing at record highs while IWM left behind a bearish evening star pattern. The bulls fought pretty hard in the QQQ lifting the index to its downtrend, printing an unconvincing hanging man pattern at resistance as it continues to struggle beneath the 50-day average. Recovering from early losses, the SPY tried to breakout but by the end of the day settled back to close below Friday’s close, unable to follow-through but perhaps just taking a rest above a price support level. Unfortunatunally, the VIX popped back above 20 handles, and the absolute breadth indicator indicated a lack of bullish momentum with more stocks declining or moving sideways than rising. Futures are mixed this morning, with rising bond rates likely rising inflation concerns once again. A few notable earnings reports and a reading on Consumer Confidence numbers are ready for yet another day of volatile price action.

Trade Wisley,

Doug