The bulls continued to run causing a gap-up at the Open Monday. However, after the gap higher, there was a lot of volatility with all major indices ending with black candles and either indecisive or having faded the gap to some extent. Still, this leaves the SPY, DIA, and QQQ at new all-time high closes and IWM higher in its trend. Just beware that gap-up Doji (DIA and QQQ) are not ideal and can presage a pullback. So nerves are a real thing up here at the all-time highs.
Earnings after-hours on Monday were mixed but leaned to the bad side. XEC, ED, IFF, MAR, MOS, and OXY all reported misses. However, HIG, JKHY, PXD, and PRU reported beats, although 3 of these also reported revenue misses.
Meanwhile, on the China Trade War front, news outlets are now reporting that China is pressing the White House to not only forego the threatened December tariffs, but also reduce the existing tariffs on Chinese goods as part of any Phase One deal. My take-away is that the “Phase One” partial agreement is not a done deal yet (as had been suggested). However, President Xi Jinping also made a speech promising that China will continue to lower tariffs and work to stabilize international trade.
In other International News, OPEC announced that it forecasts demand for oil to fall 7% over the next four years. This is based on their assumption that there will be a flood of US Shale Oil on the market as environmental concern regulation continues to be eased in America.
Tuesday’s economic calendar includes Sept. Trade Balance (8:30 am), Service PMI (9:45 am), ISM Non-Mfg. PMI and JOLTS (both at 10 am) and a couple of FOMC speakers in the afternoon. However, earnings are likely to drive markets again as AGN, ARNC, BDX, EMR, EXPD, FIS, HSIC, MYL, NEM, PPL, REGN, TPR, and ZBH all report before the Open.
Overnight, Asian markets were green. In Europe, markets are also mostly bullish at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were green across the board, looking for gap-ups of between 0.2% and 0.5%.
It certainly appears the bulls want to continue their run. However, the tepid post-gap candles Monday suggest it is not a run-away stampede for the bulls. With more China Trade War twists, as well as more earnings ahead, remember to be cautious and continue to take profits and move stops.
Ed
Swing-Trade Trade ideas for your consideration. Long – GPC, IPG, MPC, XRX, VLO, LUV, ROL, JPM, KSU, PPG, AA, OLLI. Short – MLM, CINF, LMT, NOC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.
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