Thursday was a bit of a roller coaster ride.  Markets gapped higher half a percent, despite the new unemployment claims.  It then rallied until about 10:45 am when the leak was reported by the UK publication Financial Times that said the GILD drug Remdesivir has failed its first random clinical trial.  The bears sold that news the rest of the day to close near Wednesday’s close.  This produced ugly candles in all 3 major indices, with high wicks and closes near the lows.  For the day the market was flat with the SPY down 0.01%, the DIA up 0.13%, and the QQQ down 0.21%.  The VXX also lost slightly to 44.06 while the 10-yr bond yield fell to 0.603% and Oil (WTI) rallied again, up 22.5% to $16.87/barrel.

Jobless claims came in at 4.4 million (4.3 estimated).  That takes the 5-week total to over 26 million claims, which corresponds to a 23% unemployment rate.  However, after the close, the House passed the $484 billion “Relief Bill 3.5.”  This came after a largely party-line vote to create a new panel with the authority to investigate the federal response to the pandemic.  (Republicans seem to prefer to just trust the Administration, while Democrats have no such trust.)

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 2,745,786 confirmed cases and 191,806 deaths.  In Germany, shoppers did not come out in numbers even though PM Merkel lifted their restrictions.  The number of new cases in Europe continues to reduce in rate.  However, in Asia, a second wave seems to be picking up steam in places as Indonesia reported its largest jump in new cases as did Singapore (mainly foreign workers the keep in dormitories).

In the US we now have 886,709 confirmed cases and 50,243 deaths.  During the day, Dr. Fauci said he is not overly confident at the moment that we have what it takes (in terms of the testing capacity to support a successful reopening) and that we need to continue significantly ramping up testing and tracing capability.  However, at the daily presser, President Trump said he disagrees with Dr. Fauci (his chief infectious disease expert) and that we’re doing great on testing. Still, he also said he may extend the social distancing guidelines into early summer and possibly beyond.  This all comes as the first major openings start today in the state of Georgia.

Overnight, Asian markets were re across the board with the exception of Australia (+0.49%).  In Europe, markets are also in the red so far today, with odd exceptions like the Swiss and Greeks).  However, as of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to an open a half percent on the green side of flat. 

Friday’s major economic news is limited to Mar. Durable Goods (8:30 am) and Mich. Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  However, on the earnings front, AXP, FCX, PSG, SNY, VTR, and VZ report before the open. 

The uptrend of the last couple days continues begrudgingly.  Maybe this means we are climbing a wall of worry.  However, oil has stabilized nicely, gaining back quite a bit from its Tuesday massacre (strongly negative price) and this is a calming factor for markets.  Earnings continue to be “good” against dramatically lowered expectations, but companies continue to cancel guidance and cut budgets.  For example, GOOGL cut their advertising budget in half after the close and instituted a hiring freeze for both permanent and contract workers. 

All this is to say we still have an uncertain and volatile market, filled with gaps and news-driven intraday swings.  In this environment, traders need to continue to be very focused, and either be fast (day trade) or slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious about any swing trades you take in this news-driven market.  Also remember it’s Friday, which is a great time to lock-in some profits and reduce risk going into 2 days of news cycle that cannot be addressed before Monday.

Ed

No Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist for Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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