Markets gapped higher and rallied in the morning before slowly melting a bit lower over the entire afternoon.  This left all 3 major indices with white candles the left large upper wicks.  However, it also worth noting that the SPY, DIA, and even the small-cap IWM all closed at all-time high closes. The QQQ, while it had the strongest percentage gain, is still about 6% below its own all-time high close.  On the day, DIA gained 0.62%, SPY gained 1.00%, and QQQ gained 2.30%.  The VXX fell 2.5 percent to 14.22 and the T2122 creeped even higher, deep into overbought territory at 97.12.  10-year bond yields rose slightly again to 1.53% and Oil (WTI) rose over 2.6% to $66.13/barrel.

Better than expected Weekly Jobless Claims and a lack of strong response in bond yields led to the gap-up open.  Later in the day, the President signed the Relief Plan into law, but that was largely baked-in and did not drive stocks either way.  What may be an economic driver is that the Treasury Dept. says that the first $1,400 direct payments may start hitting bank accounts as soon as this weekend (2.5 weeks faster than had been previously suggested).

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 29,925,902 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 543,721 deaths.  The number of new cases fell again to an average of 56,927 new cases per day.  Deaths also fell again to 1,403 per day.  In his prime-time speech, President Biden said he is ordering expanded vaccine eligibility, telling states to open up the shots to every American by May 1. He expects this to lead to a more normal summer.  Specifically, he said he believes the country is now on track to see widespread small gatherings by July 4^th.

Globally, the numbers rose to 119,223,964 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,643,905 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again to 412,517 per day.  Mortality, which lags, continued to tick down slowly, now at 8,456 new deaths per day.  After the close Thursday, NVAX announced that its UK Phase-3 trial has found its vaccine is over 96% effective against Covid.  The stock spiked 30% in after-hours trading on the news, but no word on phase-3 safety tests yet.  Elsewhere, a UK study confirmed what had been suspected, that the UK variant is 64% more deadly than the original strain of Covid.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Japan (+1.73%) and South Korea (+1.35%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-2.20%) and India (-0.95%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are mostly red so far on Friday.  Losses are widespread, but there are a couple of smaller holdouts and the moves are mostly modest in size.  The FTSE (-0.01%) and CAC (-0.12%) are flat, but the DAX (-0.59%) is picking up a little momentum to the downside.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a mixed, but negative open.  The QQQ is implying a -1.41% open while the SPY if looking at an open -0.43%, and the DIA looking at a flat +0.04% open.

The only major economic news on Friday are Feb PPI (8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  There are no major earnings reports planned for the day.

With no economic news or earnings on tap, all eyes will be on bond yields as an indicator of potential inflation. Thursday’s better-than-expected Jobless Claims number may have looked good yesterday, but this morning traders seem to be wondering if that augers inflation and a change in Fed policy. This is especially true as 10-year yields jumped again overnight to over 1.61%. In addition to this, we are heading into a Friday, extended to the upside. So, the bears have some weapons to work with today.

Follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and remember another trade will be along any minute. You don’t have to chase in either direction. So, do not try to predict reversals or chase moves, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline.  Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. The tortoise beats the hare when it comes to trading.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AXP, TLRY, WW, TPR, ACB, CROX, MMM, BHC, CGC. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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