The bulls ran wild on Wednesday as the massive tech names (CRM, NFLX, FB, TSLA, etc.) pulled the SPY and QQQ to yet another all-time high close. Larger than expected July Durable Goods orders also helped. While the QQQ candle looks a lot like a blow-off top, it did this on only average volume. Regardless, on the day, the QQQ gained 2.13%, SPY gained 1.00%, and DIA gained 0.29%. Contrary to the large-caps, the IWM lost 0.63%. The VXX also gained to 24.93 and T2122 fell dramatically to the mid-range at 57.06. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.688% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $43.42/barrel.
Overnight hurricane Laura began pounding the state of LA with sustained 150mph winds and a 20-foot storm surge. While it was a Category 4 when it hit, 4 hours after making landfall the storm has now been downgraded to a Category 2 (110mph winds). Forecasters say they are expecting a 15-foot storm surge to make it 30 miles inland. Widespread and extensive economic damage is expected as the area hit is filled with Oil, Gas and Chemical plant and infrastructure. And with so many dangerous substances in this path, the potential for significant environmental damage is also in play.
That said, all eyes in the market are on the Jackson Hole Virtual Central Banker Symposium where Fed Chair Powell speaks at 9:10am. Leaks have been reported the last couple days forewarning us that he will announce a dramatic shift in FOMC policy. This shift will let inflation significantly overshoot the 2% target without action until the goal of full employment is met. (This would overturn policy dating back to the start of the Reagan Administration and then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker.) However, the market is also expecting the announcement of specific programs under this new policy (for being capitalist markets, we sure do love our government handout money). So as always, it won't be the general news, but the specifics and the reaction that matters in the market.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,001,103 confirmed cases and 183,667 deaths. New cases edged up Wednesday to 44,6637 and new deaths remained just under 1,300 for the day. However, the 7-day averages have come down a touch to 42,658 and 966 per day. ABT won emergency approval for a cheap ($5) and fast (15 min.) virus test. Since granted approved, the test will start shipping in later September with full production levels reached in October. In HI, a 2-week “stay at home” order has been issued on the island of Oahu, effective today.
Globally, the numbers rose to 24,364,884 confirmed cases and 830,360 deaths. South Korea reported the highest number of new cases since March. However, it was the surge to almost 76,000 new cases on the day in India that was most alarming. Still, remember this number must be weighed against both testing and reporting that most expect dramatically under-reporting and the fact that India has over 1.3 billion people.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned modestly higher. South Korea Hong Kong and Singapore led to the downside, while Shenzhen was the only major gainer. The remaining markets were mostly green, but only modestly so. However, European markets are modestly red across the board while waiting on J. Powell’s speech. The 3 major bourses show FTSE -0.18%, DAX -0.31%, and CAC -0.46% as of mid-day. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a mildly down open across the board. However, again this is just a placeholder until Powell’s speech and perhaps the Q2 GDP read.
The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Preliminary Q2 GDP and Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (9:10 am), and July Pending Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports include ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, and TD all before the open. Then after the close DELL, GPS, HPQ, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY report.
The rally really kicked into overdrive Wednesday but did so on only average volume. This lower volume might be a good thing, in that it may mean the exuberance is not completely widespread (meaning we may not be seeing a blowoff top). Regardless, it is clear markets are extended from the T-line 17ema or whatever other averages you follow. So, use a little extra caution about getting “too long.”
With that said, the trend still remains strongly bullish. So, despite some extension, don’t go predicting a reversal to the downside either. (We have to remember that markets can stay “wrong” a lot longer than we can stay solvent being right too early.) Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed. Above all, remember, trading is a job. We must obey our rules, stick to the process, and work to be consistently profitable.
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: FCX, VIAC, EBAY, MDLZ, STZ, KO, ADI, GLW, PLNT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
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🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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