Feds Probe Crypto As Musk Likes Doge

The chop resumed Thursday with a gap higher after Weekly Jobless Claims came in better than expected and major indices gapped higher and then followed through to the upside in the morning.  The afternoon was a roller-coaster ride that ended on a 15-minute freefall.  This left us with Bullish Harami candles in the SPY and DIA while the QQQ printed a indecisive Spinning Top or Doji type candle.  On the day, the SPY gained 1.17%, the DIA gained 1.26%, and the QQQ gained 0.77%.  The VXX fell 9%, but remains at 43.76 and T2122 (4-week New High-Low Ratio) rose just outside the edge of the oversold territory to 20.69.

During the day, it was revealed that Colonial had paid the $5 million ransom for their data and as a result are back to full operations starting Wednesday night.  The supply of fuels at the end of the distribution channel should be back to normal by next week.  In other news, DIS posted a big earnings beat, but the headline was a miss on revenue and lower than expected subscriber growth. 

In legal news, the IRS and Dept. of Justice announced they have begun investigations into Binance, which is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.  Yet Dogecoin rallied as Elon Musk again tweeted about working with the coin's developers. Meanwhile, GOOG is leading an effort that includes AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, TWTR, IBM, ADBE, and others in a legal filing to support high-skilled workers (and their families) who have been in the US working on H-1B visas. This filing was opposing the legal action taken by a group called Save Jobs USA, who themselves had filed a lawsuit against the Dept. of Human Services for allowing the H-1B visa holders to stay under a different status after the previous administration moves to return them to their country of origin.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level.  The totals have risen to 33,626,097 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 598,540.  The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 36,648 new cases per day (the lowest number since September). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 625 per day (the lowest number since July 2020).  Dr. Fauci (NIH) said Thursday that it is time to rethink outdoor masking.  Later in the day it was announced the CDC will release guideline changes that say vaccinated people no longer need masks either indoor or outdoors.  However, the TSA said that the mask mandate for travel will remain into September.

Globally, the numbers rose to 161,900,605 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,360,651 deaths.  The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked.  The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 732,781 new cases per day.  Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,644 new deaths per day.  There are concerns in Europe as the number of cases of Indian “Double Mutation” variant found in the UK has doubled in a week to over 1,300.  This is still not out of control yet, but the growth rate is worthy of concern and caution as that country has now come out of restrictions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  China’s Central Bank announced that they are   concerned about inflation, but that it was not the top priority at the moment.  On that news, Japan (+2.32%) and Shenzhen (+2.09%) led the gainers, while Singapore (-2.18%) led the losses.  However, on the whole, the region was modestly higher on the day.  In Europe, markets are green across the board on more modest moves so far today.  The FTSE (+0.68%), DAX (+0.66%), and CAC (+0.74%) are all solidly higher at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are following Europe’s lead.  The DIA is implying a +0.45% open, the SPY implying a +0.64% open, and the QQQ implying a +1.03% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes April Import/Export Prices and April Retail Sales (both at 8:30 am), April Ind. Production (9:15 am), as well as Mar. Business Inventories and Mich. Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am).  Major earnings reports on the day are limited to DSEY and PBR before the open.  There are no major reports after the close.

The bulls stepped back in on Thursday, but a lot of work remains to be done before they overcome the damage done by the selloff earlier in the week. However, the Chinese Central Bank following the lead of our own Fed may be enough reassurance to let the bulls push again on Friday. Just remember that resistance overhead before getting too crazy on the long side.

As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don't just assume they will hold. Finally, remember that it's Friday. So consider weekend risk (such as last weekend's Colonial Pipeline news) and don't forget to pay yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AMC, DDD, FUBO, LUMN, MDLZ, KHC, PSTH. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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