The large-caps started the week not far on either side of flat, but he QQQ gapped 1% higher at the open.  However, after the open, all 3 major indices ground sideways in an indecisive manner, while closing near the top of their range.  This left the SPY and DIA printing Hammers (or Hanging Men depending on your perspective) with the QQQ printing a long-legged Doji with a bit more upper wick than a Hanging Man candle would have shown.  However, that was another all-time high close for the SPY and QQQ.  VXX gained over 4% to close at 17.08 and T2122 was down just slightly, but remains near Overbought Territory at 76.82.  The 10-year bond yield was off a bit toe close at 1.031% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 1% to $52.78/barrel.

New Sec. of Treasury Yellen said Monday that she supported the idea of large tech companies paying a larger share of their revenues in taxes in the countries where they operate.  This change from the previous administration’s approach was hailed by the French Finance Minister, who said he thought a global tax agreement for online businesses could be reached as soon as this Spring.  Obviously, this would have major implications for the online giants like AMZN, GOOG, FB, AAPL, and any other multinational that has shifted revenue to a low-tax country to avoid taxes up to now

A new study by Moody’s Analytics finds that 18% of renters are significantly behind on their rent as of January 1.  The average amount delinquent is $5,600 (4 months of rent plus late fees and utilities).  While President Biden extended the moratorium on most evictions through the end of March, a huge reconning lies just ahead. The President’s proposed relief plan includes $25 billion for renters and landlords.  However, that is less than 50% of the $57.3 billion currently owed to landlords…and the stimulus plan is now being fought by Senate Republicans as being too expensive as-is. Obviously, this is major problem brewing for REITS, Real Estate ETFs, and sooner or later bank stocks.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 25,861,597 confirmed cases and 431,392 deaths.  The number of new cases fell in 47 states again as the average new cases has fallen to 175,021 new cases, but deaths remain high at 3,238 per day.  CA has lifted its statewide stay-at-home order, which will allow restaurants, gyms, and other high-density public businesses to reopen.  Elsewhere, after days of strong pushback against his reiteration of a fall goal of 100 million vaccinations in his first 100 days in office, President Biden has now said the goal should be 1.5 million vaccinations per day. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 100,359,319 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,151,697 deaths.  In good news, the world’s average new cases is down to 592,753 per day (the first time below 600k this year), but deaths remain high at just under 14,114 new deaths per day.  Later today the UK is expected to announce new travel quarantine measures that will use hotels to lockdown travelers entering their country. In the Netherlands, a third night of riots, violence, and looting against curfews has led to more than 180 arrests.  In Germany, the Health Minister came out in support of limits to exports of vaccines produced in the EU.  This stems from disagreements with AZN, who says Europe’s first doses of the AZN vaccine will not arrive before the end of the first quarter, while other locales are already using the vaccine.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Hong Kong (-2.55%), South Korea (-2.14%), and Shenzhen (-1.98%) led the losses.  Only Australia (+0.36%) and Thailand (+0.75%) managed to stay on the green side.  In contrast, Europe is mostly strongly green so far today.  The FTSE (+0.80%), DAX (+1.84%), and CAC (+1.26%) lead the way with only Portugal (-0.64%) and Denmark (-0.61%) on the red side of flat at this point in the day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open.  The DIA is implying a +0.20% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.04% open.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am).  Major earnings reports include ALK, ADM, ALV, AXP, DHI, FCX, GE, IVZ, JNJ, LMT, MMM, NEE, NVS, PCAR, PII, PLD, RTX, ROK, VZ, and XRX all before the open.  Then, after the close, AMD, BXP, CHRW, CNI, COF, EHC, MSFT, SLGN, SBUX, TXN, VAR, and WRB report.

With major earnings starting to roll (5 DIA components today), most eyes will be on the reports in the market this morning. Of course, the fight over what stimulus is needed and what is fiscally responsible may also take a good slice of Mr. Market’s mind. This comes as former President Trump’s second Impeachment Trial gets underway with the swearing-in of Senators today. We sit at all-time highs, with earnings uncertainty and tomorrow’s Fed decision still hanging overhead. So, be a little cautious and don’t get too giddy chasing the bulls.

As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed.  There will be another trade. Lock in your profits when you achieve trade goals and stick to your discipline.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don’t have to try to get rich every day.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: XBI, MDRX, XLU, XLV, GTHX, MOMO, MPC, MRVL, OVID. You can find Rick’s review of those tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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