Coronavirus roused the sleeping bears.

Coronavirus roused the sleeping bears

The worry over the spreading coronavirus roused the sleeping bears temporarily but calming words from the World Health Organization allowed them to drift back into dreamland.  By the end close of the day, the bulls were solidly back in control and with the big earnings beat out of INTC new records in the NASDAQ are likely at the open today.  During the night, the WHO held off on declaring a global health emergency for now but it will be interesting to see how the market deals with that pending possibility as we head into the weekend. 

Asian market rallied from early lows to close the week mixed but mostly bullish after the WHO decision.  European markets are decidedly bullish this morning in reaction to the WHO holding off on a global declaration.  US Futures also saw a strong bullish reaction during the night, now pointing to a solid gap higher ahead of morning earnings reports and the latest reading of the PMI number at 9:45 AM Eastern.

On the Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we get a little break with just 36 companies stepping up to fess up to their results.  Among the notable for the day are NEE, APD, AXP, SYF, & SNV.

Action Plan

After a rather volatile day of price action, while the market expressed its concern for the spreading coronavirus, those tenacious bulls came charging back.  During the early evening, the futures traded positively but with rather modest gains until the WHO decided to hold off on declaring a global health emergency at least for now.  After their decision, Asian markets found their footing climbing out of the negative with following European indexes following suit and US futures extending their bullishness.  The big earnings beat from INTC after the bell looks to not only recover yesterday’s modest selling but open at new record highs this morning.

Now with 25 lives claimed by the virus and those infected expanding to over 800, it will be interesting to see how the market responds heading into the weekend.  Next week some of the biggest tech companies report such as MSFT, AAPL, FB, and AMZN.  At current prices, there will be a lot of pressure to perform, so let’s hope none of them stumble and that the health officials begin to win the fight against corona and we can avoid the major economic impacts of travel restrictions.  As normal, I will be looking to reduce my risk heading into the weekend, tucking in gains for a restful and relaxing weekend.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Bulls Less Worried After WHO

After a rocky start (likely on coronavirus epidemic fears), markets rebounded in the afternoon to close near their highs Thursday.  The SPY (up 0.25%) and the QQQ (up 0.32%) both closed at new all-time high closes, while the DIA closed slightly lower (down 0.09%), dragged lower chiefly by TRV, even after beating earnings expectations.  The VXX also fell to 13.49 and the T2122 remains in mid-range at 50.74.

In the afternoon, the World Health Organization said it was a bit too early to consider the coronavirus a public health emergency worldwide, saying it remains a “local” Chinese emergency for now.  As mentioned above, this seemed to help markets.  However, this story continues to lead global news as China has locked down (quarantined) more cities each with millions of inhabitants (at least 40 million at this point) and banned public transportation in those areas.  They have also banned the annual Lunar New Year celebration events that had been scheduled in Beijing. 

While apparently most of the 26 deaths from this virus have so far been elderly patients with pre-existing ailments, the concerning news Thursday was that some of the confirmed cases have shown no fever.  This is significant because the only screening tool available at the moment is measuring the temperature of travelers.  So, any cases not showing a fever would slip through transport hub screening undetected.

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In the US, the main story continues to be the impeachment trial.  The House Managers (Prosecution) wrap up their pre-determined 3-days of presentation on Friday. The President’s Counsel then begins their presentation Saturday, with the speculation now being it will be shorter since the facts don’t seem to be disputed.

For markets, earnings still hold major sway as INTC posted a big beat (after rallying the last couple days, almost as if that was expected).  Others posting beats after the close included DFS, TEFC, SIVB, SWKS, and ISRG. On the other side, ASML and RJF both posted misses.

On Friday, the major economic news is limited to Jan. Mfg. and Services PMIs (both at 9:45 am).   Major earnings reports are limited to APD, NEE, and WAT before the open, as well as AXP and SYF after the close.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but mostly in the green at this point in their day.  As of 7:45 am, once again U.S. futures are pointing to another gap higher of between a quarter and a half a percent.

The bulls remain resilient as the trend continues higher.  Still, the charge is not head-long, perhaps with some combination of fear over Coronavirus, Impeachment, weekend news leading to a little caution. Regardless, the trend remains intact.  So, while caution is warranted, don’t fight the trend.  Look for long opportunities, hedge your risks, keep taking profits and move your stops to protect yourself. Above all, wait for the trade to come to you…plan your trade and trade your plan.  

Ed

No Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist on Friday. Remember to take profits and hedge your risks. It’s a long way to Monday with at least political and health headline risks in play. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Just a Pause or Toppiness?

Markets gapped higher Wednesday, but then drifted back toward flat the rest of the day.  At day end, the SPY gained 0.01%, the DIA lost 0.01%, and the QQQ gained 0.26%.  The VXX gained 0.82% to a still-low 13.54 and the T2122 remains in the mid-range at 49.57.

The Coronavirus story continues to grow.  China now reports 17 deaths, nearly 600 confirmed cases and it has both quarantined the city and stopped public transport in the city where it was first confirmed.  This threat is complicated by the Chinese New Year (traditional travel period) which is happening right now.  Bloomberg reports literally hundreds of millions of Chinese are expected to travel this week and in 2019 nearly 3 billion trips were taken by Chinese in the 40 days from the Lunar New Year and the Spring Festival (the period that starts this week).  And those trips are not all local.

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In the US, the main story continues to be the impeachment trial.  Still, BA also continues to make the wrong kind of news as UAL told reporters it does not expect the 737 Max to fly before the end of summer, the FAA head said there is no timeline for reapproval of that plane and BA’s new CEO told Reuters that it is shelving a new mid-market aircraft project (a $15-$20bil  project) due to the 737 Max crisis. 

However, for markets, it seems that it’s all about earnings versus lowered expectations right now.  After hours last night ASML, BKR, KMI, and RJF all reported misses.  There will also be a number of major earnings reports Thursday, with CMCSA, PG, AAL, KEY, KMB, MTB, MKC, LUV, SWK, TRV, and UNP reporting before the open.  After the close AEP, DFS, HBAN, RMD, SIVB, SWKS, TXN, VFC, INTC, and ISRG all report.   

Other major economic news is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and Oil Inventories (11 am).  Dec. Home Sales (10 am).  CNBC feels there is a small bearish risk for US Markets from the ECB rate decision due Thursday about 7:45 am.  However, the most likely scenario is that this is a non-event.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  In Europe, major bourses are also in the red at this point in their day.  As of 7:45 am, once again U.S. futures are pointing to an open that is flat to lower by two-tenths of a percent.

Markets are showing a little hesitance this week. Perhaps this is due to being priced for perfection at the all-time highs. Or it could be some combination of fear over Coronavirus, Impeachment, or maybe even (gasp) less than thrilling earnings. Regardless, the trend has not been broken. It just seems to be in a lull so far this week. Keep reminding yourself that we are extended, but the trend remains bullish. So, while caution is warranted, don’t fight the trend. Look for long opportunities near support but don’t chase. Hedge your risks, keep taking profits on a regular basis and move your stops to protect yourself. Above all, wait for the trade to come to you…plan your trade and trade your plan.  

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideratoin and watchlist: FMC, HOMB, MYL, ABBV, UTHR, VG, URI, CDW, SHOO, SKX, CAH, ACAD. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wild-eyed bullish charge slowed.

bullish charge slowed

The wild-eyed bullish charge slowed the last couple days as early rally’s struggled to hold onto the highs.  However, the bears seem to be in hibernation with little to no willingness to even test index price supports.  Trends remain bullish as we head into the biggest day earnings reports this week.  The impeachment trial in the Senate seem to be little more than a distraction during the spreading coronavirus is stealing the media attention from the political drama.  As earnings roll out anything is possible so stay focused on price and plan your risk carefully.

Asian markets closed seeing only red as China locked down two cities attempting to slow the spread of the virus that has now infected nearly 600.  European markets keeping an eye out for an ECB decision and new worries about trade with the US currently have their indexed mixed but mostly lower this morning.  Even the US Futures are displaying caution this morning with mixed but slightly bearish results ahead of a big day of earnings reports.

On the Calendar

We have our biggest day of earnings reports this week and the 1st quarter reports with more than 100 companies in the hot seat today.  Some of the notables include AAL, CMCSA, DFS, ETFC, FCX, INTC, ISRG, JBLU, KEY, KMB, MTB, ORI, SWKS, LUV, TRV, UNP & VFC.

Action Plan

The little rally yesterday ended the day little changed with the Dow closing down less than 10 points.  Although the indexes appear overbought and stretched away from key moving averages, the bears seem to be hibernating with little to no interest in attacking at the moment.  During the night, China put 2 of its cities on lockdown as the coronavirus continues to spread with nearly 600 confirmed cases and 17 deaths so far.  As a result, Asian markets were red across the board as the fear spread amongst investors.  European markets are trading flat to slightly bearish this morning as they wait and ECB decision and the worry of trade issues rising after tough Presidential talk.

Overall index trends remain bullish and thus far, no daily price support levels have breached.  To find anything remotely bearish in the indexes, you have to look at 15 min. charts to see downtrends possibly developing.  With a big of earnings reports, anything is possible but futures are trading mixed to slightly lower this morning choosing a little caution rather than the wild-eyed bullishness we have experienced the last several weeks.  I would not be at all surprised to see a surge of volatility this morning as earnings roll out.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls Bang-out more New Records!

New Records
Quietly Waiting in the wings.

The bulls bang-out more new records pushing GOOGL into the 1 trillion market cap club and price to earnings growth hits the highest level since Bank of America started recording the metric in the ‘80s.  How much further can you go?  That’s anyone guess, but as retail traders, we must guard ourselves against getting caught up in the exuberance over-trading or chasing trades already up several days in their bull run.  With a 3-day weekend approaching, it may be wise to take some profits and reducing risk in case sentiment happens to shift over the weekend.

Asian markets closed the trading week, seeing green across the board after China reported their economy grew as expected.  European markets have also reached out to new record highs this morning in reaction to the big gains in the US and China news.  This morning US Futures continue to climb, suggesting a modest gap up open ahead of earnings and economic reports. 

On the Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we have 21 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include CFG, FAST, JBHUT, KSU, RF, SLB, & STT.

Action Plan

More new records attained as the bulls continue to surge higher with wild abandon.  Bank of America reported that Price to Earnings Growth is now 1.8 hitting the highest level since they began recording the number in the ’80s.  For reference, a reading 1.0 PEG is considered an overbought condition.  That said, nothing seems to stop the bulls from stretching this rally that pushed GOOGL to a 1 Trillion market cap during yesterday’s bullish session.  With a three-day weekend approaching, futures currently suggest another gap up open and more record highs today with no sign of slowing down just yet.

Trading such an overbought condition requires a strong adherence to your trading rules.  It’s very easy with all the bullish exuberance to get caught up, tossing caution to the wind and over-trade.  I have no idea when the tide will change, but believe me when it does; you don’t want to be over-invested because the reversal can be swift and extreme.  Stick to your rules, size your trades properly, don’t chase stocks well into their run or when they are testing price resistance levels, have an exit plan if you’re wrong and remember to take some profits along the way!  I wish you all a wonderful 3-day weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Relentless Bulls

Relentless Bulls

Bad news at Boeing and a spreading coronavirus roused the bears for a 150 point Dow pullback yesterday, but the futures point to gap up open this morning as the relentless bulls keep buying with no regard to the extended prices and historically high price to earnings ratios.  As we begin our biggest day of earnings reports this quarter, it looks like the lowered analyst’s estimates could continue to fuel the markets even higher.  However, a word of caution.  With stocks priced well beyond perfection compared to earnings growth, keep in mind just one stumble could trigger a quick reversal, so plan your risk carefully.

That is Question?

Asian markets shook off concerns of travel restrictions due to the spread of the coronavirus to close green across the board overnight.  European markets are however, muted at this hour showing mixed and cautious trading.  US Futures tossed caution to the wind rising sharply overnight and continue to point to a substantial gap up as ravenous bulls can’t seem to buy up high priced stocks fast enough. 

On the Calendar

On the Hump day earnings calendar, we have the largest number of reports so far this season, with over 80 companies fessing up to their quarterly results.  Notable reports include ABT, ALLY, BKR, CTXS, FITB, JNJ, KMI, LVS, RJF, RCI, SLM, STLD, TER, & TXN.

Action Plan

A bit of nervousness about the coronavirus temporarily woke up the bears yesterday with concerns that this contagious and very deadly virus could damage the economy restricting travel around the world.  Of course, the news that Boeing expects further delays before getting approvals to put the 737 Max back in the air aided in the selling yesterday after the company broke down below a key price support level.  After the bell, NFLX posted better than expected earnings but disappointed on subscriber number particularly in the US and Canada.  The initial price reaction was lower, but this morning NFLX is indicated modestly higher.  IBM, after reporting five straight quarters of decline, finally found the right stuff to top analysts estimates as their acquisition of Red Hat helped them turn the corner.

Even with the 152 point decline in the Dow, yesterday index trends remain intact with no break of price supports in the daily charts.  Futures have been in bullish mode all night long as we head into the biggest round of earnings so far this season.  In an interview, the President proclaimed the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if not for the Fed and indicated he was in pursuit of another tax cut to help it along even more.  Stay bullish but remember that many stocks are priced well beyond perfection.  Any stumble could create a quick and substantial pullback so carefully plan your risk carefully and resist chasing stocks already running.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls Seem Ready to Run Again

Markets held their ground Tuesday, off the absolute highs but not falling far.  The SPY closed down 0.20%, the DIA down 0.49%, and the QQQ down only 0.04%.  T2122 has fallen back to the mid-range at 57.57 and the VXX gained only a fraction to close at a still historically-low 13.43.

On the news front, the CDC confirmed the first case of coronavirus had made its way from China to the US in the short time it has even had a name (about a week).  In other news, BA took another beating as it said it does not expect regulators to allow the 737 Max to fly again until at least mid-2020.  Finally, the impeachment trial began with wrangling over trial rules. It seems the Republicans are still leaning toward just a summary presentation of House findings and then a vote to acquit. They blocked a Democrat call to subpoena documents the White House refused to give the House and both sides are arguing over witnesses.

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The interesting news out of Davos was almost all made by President Trump, as is his want.  While the need to adapt to Climate Change and the need to work together globally was the theme (and near-universal opinion of attendees), President Trump remains vocally opposed on both counts.  Once again, he pooh-poohed climate change as not proven and unneeded drag on the economy. He also urged all countries to employ trade policies that are in their own countries’ internal best interests.  He also attacked the Fed again (saying the economy would be at a 4% growth rate except for the Fed dragging it down). And Finally, he announced an attempt to reform the WTO (which he neutered last year by removing a quorum among the Trade Dispute Judges).

Wednesday’s major economic news is limited to Dec. Home Sales (10 am). However, there will be a number of earnings reports, with APH, GD, JNJ, NSC, NTRS, TEL, and TXT all reporting before the open.  After the close ASML, CCI, DFS, FFIV, KMI, RFJ, SLG, and VAR report.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but mostly higher at this point in the day.  As of 7:45 am, once again U.S. futures are pointing to a hefty gap higher of between four-tenths and a two-thirds of a percent.

It appears the bulls are back for more this morning. The generally good earnings and lack of major bearish news seems to have them ready for another leg up this morning. Just remember that we are still extended. For example, the Put-Call Ratio is at it’s lowest mark in years. So, caution is warranted, but don’t fight the trend. Look for long opportunities near support but don’t chase. Keep taking profits on a regular basis, moving your stops to protect yourself, and wait for the trade to come to you.   

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideratoin and watchlist: LW, GRMN, EYE, OSTK, TUP, VG, URI, MHK, MGM, MYL, MU. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Extension Caution or Impeachment Fear?

The bulls refused to back off on Friday.  Once again all three major indices gapped higher.  It was an indecisive day after the gap, but still, the SPY gained 0.37%, the DIA gained 0.12% and the QQQ gained 0.49%.  All three closes were at the all-time high.  The VXX remains historically low at 13.32 and the T2122 remains in overbought territory but did back off slightly to 82.99.

In economic news Friday, the Treasury Department had to bring back the 20year bond (last issued in 1986) to help cover the ballooning budget deficit costs.  This had the short-term effect of steepening the yield curve.  In addition, Bloomberg reported that Larry Kudlow reports that the Trump Administration will seek to scrap a 1977 law that prohibits US companies from bribing foreign governments.  This issue was reported to have been a point of contention between the President and his previous Secretary of State.

Among stocks, BA took a hit when a new software problem for the 737 Max was announced.  In addition, JBHT took a major hit on their earnings miss.

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There is no major economic news Tuesday following the holiday, but the President is in Davos and is telling other countries to follow his protectionist path of “Insert Country Here First” approach. That itself is a first, coming from the leader of the country that led the free-trade and global market movements. In non-economic news, the Presidential impeachment trial begins today. In the market, there will be a number of earnings reports.  Among those reporting before the open are CMA, HAL, HBI, NUE, PGR, and ROL.  After Tuesday’s close IBM, ITW, NFLX, UAL, and VFC will report.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly red across the board.  In Europe, the same is true red across the board.  As of 7:45 am, U.S. futures are pointing to third or a percent gap lower.

The bulls have been relentless for a long time. The long weekend, amount of extension and upcoming impeachment trial may have changed the tune to one that is a little more cautious. However, the trend is still the trend (until it is broken), so don’t overreact. Look for long opportunities near support but don’t chase. Keep taking profits on a regular basis, moving your stops to protect yourself, and wait for the trade to come to you.   

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideratoin and watchlist: ANGI, LOW, WYND, ENPH, LW, MU, M, TUP, SNDL, YNDX. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bulls Bang-out more New Records!

New Records
Quietly Waiting in the wings.

The bulls bang-out more new records pushing GOOGL into the 1 trillion market cap club and price to earnings growth hits the highest level since Bank of America started recording the metric in the ‘80s.  How much further can you go?  That’s anyone guess, but as retail traders, we must guard ourselves against getting caught up in the exuberance over-trading or chasing trades already up several days in their bull run.  With a 3-day weekend approaching, it may be wise to take some profits and reducing risk in case sentiment happens to shift over the weekend.

Asian markets closed the trading week, seeing green across the board after China reported their economy grew as expected.  European markets have also reached out to new record highs this morning in reaction to the big gains in the US and China news.  This morning US Futures continue to climb, suggesting a modest gap up open ahead of earnings and economic reports. 

On the Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we have 21 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include CFG, FAST, JBHUT, KSU, RF, SLB, & STT.

Action Plan

More new records attained as the bulls continue to surge higher with wild abandon.  Bank of America reported that Price to Earnings Growth is now 1.8 hitting the highest level since they began recording the number in the ’80s.  For reference, a reading 1.0 PEG is considered an overbought condition.  That said, nothing seems to stop the bulls from stretching this rally that pushed GOOGL to a 1 Trillion market cap during yesterday’s bullish session.  With a three-day weekend approaching, futures currently suggest another gap up open and more record highs today with no sign of slowing down just yet.

Trading such an overbought condition requires a strong adherence to your trading rules.  It’s very easy with all the bullish exuberance to get caught up, tossing caution to the wind and over-trade.  I have no idea when the tide will change, but believe me when it does; you don’t want to be over-invested because the reversal can be swift and extreme.  Stick to your rules, size your trades properly, don’t chase stocks well into their run or when they are testing price resistance levels, have an exit plan if you’re wrong and remember to take some profits along the way!  I wish you all a wonderful 3-day weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls Run, But 3-day Weekend Ahead

The bulls gapped markets higher perhaps on a huge earnings beat by MS.  Regardless of the reason, after that gap markets traded sideways in a tight range until late afternoon.  Sometime after 3pm the bulls took over again and drove prices higher right into the close.  The SPY closed up 0.81%, the DIA up 0.89%, and the QQQ up 0.96%.  As you’d expect, the VXX fell 2.42% again to 13.29.  T2122 jumped higher well into overbought territory at 93.97.

Among the market news for the day was Bloomberg report a panel that seems to contradict the reports from Wednesday’s signing coverage of Phase One of the China Trade Deal.  The consensus from the Chief Economists from all the major US banks is that the trade deal would not have a strong impact on the US economy, at least in 2020.  They’ve concluded that growth will slow to 1.8%-1.9% this year (well below the 2.5% touted during the signing ceremony and in the Administration’s post-signing interviews Wed.).  Time will tell, but economists seem skeptical.

On the cheerier side, DataTrek Research reported that US pickup truck sales (an indicator of small business activity) ended 2019 on a high note.  Those sales ended the year 2.3% higher than in 2018.  The other news was that GOOG has now joined AAPL and MSFT in the “More Than $1 Trillion Market Cap” club. The Fed keeps saying their mass Repo purchases are not stimulus, but the market sure keeps treating them that way.

Friday’s major economic news includes Dec. Building Permits and Dec. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Dec. Industrial Production (9:15 am), JOLTS and Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am) and a few Fed speakers throughout the day.  Major earnings before the open include CFG, FAST, KSU, MTB, RF, SLB, and STT. There were also CNBC reports that BA will need to take another massive charge related to their 737 Max debacle. So watch that one for gapping as well.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  In Europe, the same is true as the rest of the world follows our lead from Thursday.  As of 7:45 am, once again U.S. futures are pointing to a gap higher of between a quarter and a third of a percent.

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The bulls continue their incredible run with new all-time highs seeming to come daily.  Over-extension, earnings and headline risk over a 3-day weekend are all very real issues at this point.  However, markets can remain overbought longer than bears can hold out while being too early.  So, consider caution and/or hedges on Friday, but don’t bet against the trend. Look for long opportunities near support but don’t chase. Keep taking profits on a regular basis, moving your stops to protect yourself, and wait for the trade to come to you.   

Ed

Sorry, but no Swing Trade Ideas on a Friday before a 3-day weekend. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service