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Yield Tumble and AZN News May Help Bulls

March 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened blah on Friday and then ground sideways in a tight range all day, up until a late-day selloff. This left indecisive Doji and Spinning Top in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, DIA lost 1.02%, SPY lost 0.51%, and QQQ gained 0.35%. The VXX fell 4% to 12.77 and T2122 rose a bit, but remains in the mid-range at 60.53. After having risen during pre-market, 10-year bond rates were flat at 1.73% on the day, and Oil also gained strongly overnight, but was flat on the day at $61.42/barrel.

Over the weekend, CP agreed to buy KSU for $25 billion in the rail space. In Oil, Saudi Aramco announced earnings 44% down for 2020, but decided to maintain its $75 billion dividend and it remains the world’s most profitable company. Finally, after completing its $100 billion media deal, the NFL also working on a $100-$250 million data deal to provide play-by-play statistics to sports betting companies.

Early today, Richmond Fed President Barkin (voting member) told a conference in Europe “the US is on the brink of completing its recovery.” However, he fears economic scarring left by the year-long crisis will suppress growth prospects in the medium and longer-term. (The US economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, but is estimated to grow 6.5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 according to both Fed and OECD, a non-US expert source.) Barkin’s main “scarring” concerns are parents who left the workforce (especially mothers), small businesses having closed, and working off the tremendous Federal Debt.

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,521,774 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 555,314 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases has plateaued at an average of 55,630 new cases per day. However, new deaths continue to fall to 1,048 per day. In bad news, Covid cases are rising again in 21 states. Meanwhile, in Miami Beach, Spring Breakers packed the streets (mostly unmasked) and rioted when police tried to break up crowds. However, in more hopeful news, AZN released a new US-based trial of their vaccine that showed 79% efficacy (but like the JNJ, PFE, and MRNA vaccines, 100% effective against severe symptoms and hospitalization).

Globally, the numbers rose to 123,935,536 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,729,028 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 481,856 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 8,756 new deaths per day. Greece has drafted private doctors to help the strained medical system after a public plea resulted in few volunteering. With a major lack of vaccine in the EU, EU Commissioner Von der Leyen told AZN, “first fulfill your contract with Europe before you start delivering to other countries.” So, the argument with the UK is now hot again. Germany is seeking a lockdown extension as cases are rising again in the country’s third wave. In Asia, India reported a spike with the most new cases of any day since November.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned strongly red again. Japan (-2.07%) and India (-1.49%) led the losses while Shanghai (+1.14%) and Shenzhen (+1.14%) are among the few bright spots. However, in Europe, markets are mostly green on modest trading with only 2 showing any red so far this morning. The FTSE (+0.10%), DAX (+0.23%), and CAC (-0.23%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to another mixed and modest open. The DIA is just on the red side of flat at -0.04%, while the SPY (+0.20%) is implying a slightly higher open, and the QQQ (+0.80%) is implying a moderate gap higher.

The no major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Feb. Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open are limited to ZIM. Then after the close SNX and TME report.

Although today’s news is limited, Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Sec. Yellen jointly-testify before Congress on both Tuesday and Wednesday this week. So, there may be some waiting today for more direction from those two Monetary and Fiscal leaders. However, 10-year yields fell significantly overnight, which may fuel the bulls. In addition, gaps and volatility have been the hallmarks of the past few days, where intraday swings of more than 1.5% have been the norm. And we still sit just a couple percent from the all-time highs. So, exercise caution and prudence.

Follow the trend for your trading horizon, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PFE, QS, DAC, BOOT, CSAH, FDX, MVIS, KOPN, STKL, MGNI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Feisty Bond Market

March 19, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The calming words and dovish Fed policy meet with a feisty bond market worried about inflation, creating a failure of the 50-day average as techs suffered. Rising bonds engaged the bear in the market around the world during the night, even as a flurry of institutional reports try to calm fears. The good news is that bond rates have softened slightly this morning, allowing the future to breathe a sigh of relief. With concerning candle and price pattern in the charts to overcome the bulls will have to work overtime.

Overnight Asian markets closed the week with red across the board due to inflation worries. European markets also see red across the board this morning, spooked by the rising bond rates. However, here in the U.S., futures markets are green across the board, trying to put a brave face on concerning situation. Keep an eye on those bond prices and remain flexible.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a light day on the Friday earnings calendar with less than 30 companies, but of those, there are only eight verified reports. With mostly small-cap companies reporting, the only notable I can come up with is ERJ.

News & Technicals’

Feisty bond markets seemed to reject the calming words of Jerome Powell as worries of inflation pushed bond rates higher. Markets around the world have also reacted negatively, but the bulls are pushing back this morning after a flurry of institutional reports trying to calm nerves. The first U.S. – China meeting under the new administration began with long-winded speeches criticizing each other and flinging insults. It will be interesting to see how the meeting progresses today. The 10-year Treasury yields are moderating slightly this morning after touching a 14-month high bring a sigh of relief to the futures. Amazon has become the new home of the NFL after closing an 11-year media rights deal for Thursday night games. The U.S. House passed two immigration bills yesterday afternoon that creates a path to citizenship for millions setting up a fight in the Senate.

Yesterday’s selloff raises the level of caution, leaving behind potential bearish candle and price action patterns on the index charts. However, the bullish trends in the DIA, SPY, and IWM still exist, with the bearish failure of the QQQ at its 50-day average making up the bulk of the concern. Should those pesky bonds remain elevated, the tech sector could continue to struggle. Unfortunately, we have inserted the tech giants into the DIA and SPY indexes and given them a tremendous weight in the average. Should they continue to struggle, so could the overall averages. It would be wise to keep an eye on the bond market and avoid complacency.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Meeting With China Has A Rocky Start

March 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

The major indices were divergent most of the day Thursday. The QQQ gapped down 1.6%, while the SPY gapped down 0.7% and the DIA opened barely lower at -0.15%. This continued as the DIA rallied all morning, while the SPY and QQQ ground sideways. However, all 3 got back in-sync the last two hours with a strong sell-off. This left the DIS as a Bearish Harami and all 3 major indices as ugly black candles. On the day, DIA lost 0.43%, the SPY lost 1.43%, and QQQ lost a whopping 3.06%. The VXX gained 5.5% and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 57.14. 10-year bond yields (which had spiked overnight Wednesday to 1.75%) fell back to 1.706% and Oil (WTI) got crushed, dropping almost 8% to $59.53/barrel on dollar strength and fear over inflation.

In business news, the NFL signed a $105 billion, 11-year media deal. This saw AMZN make its first step into live broadcasting as it purchased exclusive rights to Thursday NFL games starting in 2022. DG announced plans to expand by opening 1,000 new stores, remodeling 1,750 stores, and relocate 100 others all in the coming year as it pushes its more upscale chain “Popshelf.” PTON suffered a PR setback as CEO Foley addressed press after the company warned owners of their treadmills to keep children away after an accident resulted in a child’s death. A SPCE engineer plead guilty to insider trading (using the dark web) during Thursday evening. Finally, F announced it will have to cut shifts and only partially build pickups and SUVs due to the global chip shortage.

The first US-China meeting since President Biden took office got underway Thursday night. It started with a bang as each side accused the other of various things and both then declaring the other side was grandstanding. With that said, this is expected to be an important first meeting as the world’s two largest economies try to reset relations and lay groundwork to work together on many issues such as direct trade, climate change, and various geopolitical problems that can all effect trade. It can be argued the meeting is of more importance to the US, because we’ve ceded our place as the global leader in free trade to the Chinese in recent years. That is to say, the US has pulled out of many trade agreements, freely used tarriffs and embargos, and undermined the WTO, while China has concluded major regional trade deals with Asia, the middle-east, Africa, and many bilateral country-specific deals. This likely stems from the Chinese longer-term approach (versus the US short-term outlook) as part of their “belt and road” initiative pointed toward mid-century world economic dominance.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,358,880 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 552,470 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases rose slightly to an average of 55,787 new cases per day. Deaths rose very slightly also to 1,188 per day. President Biden said that the country would hit his initial goal of 100 million vaccinations today (58 days into his tenure). NJ rained indoor occupancy restrictions to 50% for gyms, restaurants, personal care businesses, etc. effective immediately. The US said it will also start relaxing covid travel restrictions in May.

Globally, the numbers rose to 122,481,607 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,705,298 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 458,220 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 8,684 new deaths per day. Europe’s Medicines Agency categorically stated that the AZN vaccine was safe and effective on Thursday. As a result, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and others all announced plans to resume distributing the AZN vaccine. However, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have decided to wait before restarting that rollout. Meanwhile, France announced a 4-week lockdown of Paris after spikes in UK-variant cases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned strongly red. India (+1.28%) was the lone standout on the green side, but Shenzhen (-2.56%), Shanghai (-1.69%), and Japan (-1.41%) were much more typical of the region. In Europe, we see red across the board so far today, with the lone holdout being Portugal (+0.74%). The FTSE (-0.93%), DAX (-0.68%), and CAC (-0.70%) are all in the red. As of 7:45 am, US futures are flat to green. The DIA is implying a +0.03% open, the SPY implying a +0.16% open, and the QQQ implying a 0.46% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Friday. Major earnings reports before the open are limited to include ERJ. Then after the close there are no reports at all.

With no news planned, the market will have its eyes on inflation and to a lesser extent the US-China meetings. After the post-few whipsaw of the last couple of days, interest rates pulled back just a bit overnight to less than 1.7% on the 10-year note. However, this is tempered by the bickering coming out of the meetings in Alaska. Going into a weekend, with inflation fears and the two main economic superpowers arguing, I think the bulls want to pair losses, but caution may rule the day. Do not be surprised if traders take profits at least later in the day.

Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain discipline. As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Finally, remember it’s Friday, payday. So, take some money off the table to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Near-zero rates until 2024

March 18, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Jerome Powell waved his exceedingly dovish magic wand, calming a worrisome market with intentions to hold near-zero interest rates until 2024. As a result, the DIA and SPY surged off of intraday lows to ink new record highs. Despite his efforts, the 10-year treasury trades higher this morning, touching 1.74% as inflation worries linger. That said, the QQQ remains the worrisome index with significant overhead price resistance though it squeaked out a close above its 50-day average. The best we can do as traders is to stay with the trend and avoid becoming complacent.

Asian markets surged overnight after the dovish Fed comments, with the HIS leading the way up 1.28%. European markets trade mixed with the DAX up over 1% while the FTSE and CAC hover near the flat-line. With earnings and Jobless claims and those pesky rising bond rates, the U.S. futures have bounced off of overnight lows in the premarket pump yet still point to a mixed open.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have 90 companies on the Wednesday earnings calendar, but a good number of them are unverified reports. Notable reports include CAN, CSIQ, DXLG, DG, DLTH, FDX, NKE, OLLI, WOOF, SCHL, SIG, UTZ, & WB.

News & Technicals’

After the Fed’s dovish comments that expect to hold interest rates near zero until 2024, the DIA and SPY inked new record highs. Unfortunately, the 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, reaching 1.74% as investors worry about inflation. The European central bank chimed in to echo the Fed, saying they will not react to short-term inflation increases. The IRS announced yesterday they would move the regular April 15^th tax deadline to May 17^th to help with the taxation changes. Just in time to take advantage of the stimulus payments, Apple is reportedly preparing to roll out high-end iPads ahead of its usual release cycle. According to reports, GOOG plans to spend $7 billion to construct new data centers and office space in 2121.

On the technical front, the trends in the DIA, SPY, and IWM remain in good condition after the modest selling that occurred ahead of the Fed announcement. Though the QQQ squeaked out a close above its 50-day average, it remains the weakest of the indexes faced with considerable overhead resistance. If big tech continues to struggle with the rising bond rates, it could be an interesting challenge for the indexes due to the heavy tech weighting. We may have to consider the possibility of longer-term overall market consolidation as investors weigh inflation worries against the exceedingly dovish Fed. With Jobless Claims numbers in focus, the U.S. futures point to a mixed open.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Fed Hit Home Run But Market Rethinking

March 18, 2021 by Ed Carter

Stocks gapped down strongly as pre-market economic data led to major inflation fears. They then ground sideways until the FOMC and Chair Powell hit the perfect tone, by saying the economy is getting stronger (+6.5% for the year) and prices will rise in the short-term due to the stimulus, but the Fed sees no inflation and does not foresee any reason to raise rates or tighten policy through at least 2023. Markets exploded more than a full percent higher on that news and then took profits during the last hour. This gave us Bullish Engulfing signals in the QQQ and SPY as well as new all-time high closes in the two large-cap indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.34%, DIA gained 0.58%, and QQQ gained 0.41%. The VXX fell over 4% to 12.59 and T2122 jumped back to 90.91. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.646% and Oil (WTI) fell almost half a percent to $64.53/barrel.

In government-related news, the IRS announced they are moving the 2020 Tax filing deadline back from April 15 to May 17. In addition, unspecified Wall St. execs, private equity CEOs, major corporations, and the Chamber of Commerce have held talks with President Biden on ways to pay for a major infrastructure improvement bill. Tax increases, usage fees, public-private partnerships were reportedly the leading ideas discussed according to sources cited by Bloomberg. Finally, the House has officially rolled out the pork barrel as GOP Representatives joined Democrats in allowing (for the first time since 2011) specific set-asides in all bills. While this opens the way to more bipartisan legislation, it also greatly increases the likelihood of pork (vote-buying across parties).

In other news, MS became the first major bank to allow clients access to Bitcoin. In addition, DIS formally announced that Disneyland would reopen on April 30. Finally, leaks suggest AAPL will announce new high-end iPads as soon as April, this is an unusual move since the company typically puts out new products in the fall. The timing may be a response to the reported decrease in iPhone sales. The good news for AAPL fans is that iPads use mobile processors that are much more available than computer silicon now.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the Fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,294,798 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 550,649 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases rose slightly to an average of 55,595 new cases per day. Deaths fell slightly also to 1,173 per day. Generally, the country is trending well, but an increasing number of states are seeing an increase in cases (UK variant and CA state variants) the health professionals have been warning about. The count is now 16 states with increasing cases.

Globally, the numbers rose to 121,938,903 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,694,903 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases have risen again to 448,126 per day. Mortality, which lags, was flat, now at 8,583 new deaths per day. Turkey saw its highest number of new cases in months and Brazil the highest number of new cases ever yesterday. The US is considering sending some AZN vaccine to Mexico (since it isn’t even approved yet for use in this country).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green. Hong Kong (+1.28%), Shenzhen (+1.12%), and Japan (+1.01%) led the way among major exchanges. India (-1.11%) and Australia (-0.73%) paced the losers. In Europe, we see a similar pattern so far today. The DAX (+1.07%) is an outlier to the upside, the CAC (+0.09%) is flat, and the FTSE (-0.23%) is typical of the exchanges showing losses mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing negative. The DIA (+0.06%) s flat, but the SPY (-0.47%) and QQQ (-1.23%) are pointing to gaps down in front of the Jobless Claims number.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports before the open include CAN, CSIQ, CMC, DG, GIII, WOOF, SIG, and WB before the open. Then after the close, LX, NKE, and OCDX report.

The Fed did the most any trader could ask on Wednesday. However, markets have had a night to reconsider the “we’re doing well and not taking our foot off the gas” statement. The specter of inflation still looms and bond yields are showing no sign of softening. So, don’t be surprised that we see a snap-back from yesterday afternoon’s rally. However, that too may be very short-lived. Expect volatility, but the bulls are still in control of the trend.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WF, BLDR, AG, BB, WPM, FANG, PFE, MARA, GM, RIOT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

3-16-21 e-Learning

March 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

Blueprint to Double a Trading Account

Walk a tightrope.

March 17, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Jerome Powell has a difficult task today as he attempts to walk a tightrope of rising inflation concerns and economic recovery. The 10-year Treasury yields hitting new highs ahead of the announcement raises the stakes, and the entire world economy is watching. Congress will have its own balancing act to perform today in a hearing to deal with illegal border crossings that have hit record highs. Stay focused and flexible because anything is possible as we wait on the data.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower in a choppy cautious session as they monitor the FOMC. European indexes also trade cautiously this morning, bounding around the flatline as they wait on the Fed decision. Ahead of a big day of data, U.S. futures appear to be treading water near the flatline ahead of earnings and potentially market-moving reports. Buckle up!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have 65 companies listed on the Wednesday earnings calendar, but a significant number of them are unconfirmed. Notable reports include AOUT, CTAS, FIVE, MLHR, LE, RIDE, OTCM, PDD, WSM, & ZTO.

News & Technicals’

The pressure on Jerome Powell today as he attempts to walk a tightrope between Washington and Wall Street. The fireworks begin at 2 PM eastern with the FOMC statement followed by the press conference at 2:30. Treasury yields have hit a 13-month high this morning ahead of the Fed decision. Simultaneously, the pandemic is improving here in the U.S.; German cases are rising exponentially. A reminder that we may still have a long road ahead of us in the battle against Covid-19. Italy and France have decided to restart AstraZeneca vaccinations they recently stopped due to blood clotting concerns. There will be in hearing in Congress today as illegal border crossings hit record numbers. Democrats frame it as a minor problem while Republicans suggest it’s an all our crisis. It should be an exciting day of political pandering and soundbites.

Markets paused yesterday, somewhat holding their breath as we wait on the FOMC decision. Yesterday’s economic data was a bit disappointing, and today we get the latest reading on Housing Starts and the status of Petroleum reserves. Though potentially market-moving, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell’s tightrope walk later this afternoon. The DIA, SPY, and IWM indexes remain in good condition holding on to bullish trends. The QQQ is another matter leaving behind a concerning candle pattern at its 50-day moving average. What today’s follow-through price action on the tech sector could be of critical importance. With the 10-yields on the rise this morning, there is a lot at stake.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

All Eyes On The Fed and Chairman Powell

March 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

The large-caps opened slightly higher and the QQQ gapped up three-quarters of a percent on Tuesday. Then after a little morning follow-through, stocks sold off all afternoon. This gave us indecisive black candles (especially in the SPY and the QQQ gap-up Doji). However, the bullish trend remains unbroken. On the day, SPY lost 0.13%, DIA lost 0.37%, and QQQ gained 0.55%. The VXX was flat at 13.16 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) pulled back, but remains in the overbought territory at 83.33. 110-year bond yields rose again to 1.623% and Oil (WTI) fell over a percent to $64.68/barrel.

After the close, UBER granted their UK drivers worker status (having lost their legal battle up through the UK Supreme Court claiming they were contractors). This is widely expected to cause follow-on actions throughout Europe and perhaps at some point in the US. In other business news, Mortgage refinance demand fell 39% this week as rates continue to rise. For example, the benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to a 13-month high overnight of 1.65%.

The ongoing FOMC meeting is drawing much more attention than Fed meetings have for quite some time. This is backed up by a BAC survey of investors that found inflation is now the top market fear, replacing the virus for the first time in a year. Nobody is expecting a rate or even much of a statement wording change at this meeting. However, with interest rates rising and massive stimulus just starting to hit the economy, many analysts are saying Chair Powell really has to thread the needle in his afternoon press conference. He has to acknowledge that things look better, but that there really is too much uncertainty to change policy for a long time to come, even as we see a ripping stock market, rising bond rates, and are expecting huge GDP gains in Q1 and Q2.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,231,550 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 549,367 deaths. The number of new cases fell slightly again to an average of 55,395 new cases per day. Deaths fell slightly also to 1,228 per day. So, we are trending in a good direction overall. On the other hand, 15 states have reported at least a 10% increase in new cases this week versus last week. So, on average we are doing well, but some places are still in danger. Still, DE, OH, and MT all announced they are joining the states expanding vaccinations to everyone over the age of 16…which is also great news.

Globally, the numbers rose to 121,370,336 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,684,236 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases have risen again to 438,942 per day. Mortality, which lags, also rose, now at 8,631 new deaths per day. Following in the path of Germany, France’s PM told press that his country is also experiencing a third wave, mostly of the UK variant. In South American, Brazil reached another new high in daily deaths of 2,841.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but this time leaned negative. Shenzhen (+1.22%) stood out on the green side while South Korea (-0.64%), Taiwan (-0.60%), and Australia (-0.47%) were more typical. In Europe, stocks have started their day mostly lower. The FTSE (-0.29%), DAX (+0.09%), and CAC (-0.13%) are flat and seem to be trying to buck the trend, but most of the smaller exchanges are further into the red. As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed but lean to the red. The DIA is implying a flat +0.01% open, the SPY implying a -0.24% open, and the QQQ looking to gap down, implying a -0.74% open at this point.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Feb. Building Permits and Feb. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Interest Rate Projections, Fed Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, and Fed Interest Rate Decision all at 2 pm as well as the Fed Press Conf. at 2:30 pm. Major earnings reports before the open include ARCO, CTAS, LE, and PDD. Then after the close, FIVE, WSM, and ZTO report.

All eyes will be on the Fed this afternoon. While no rate change decision is expected, Fed the interest rate forecast, statement, and especially Chair Powell’s press conference need to walk a tight rope for bulls to stay in control. Expect volatility, but also possibly some “wait and see” in front of the 2 pm announcements.

As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Also, keep in mind that you are not a fortune-teller. Don’t try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WFC, BAC, PFE, RIG, AAPL, WRK, MRNA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Choppy Market Session

March 16, 2021 by Doug Campbell

A choppy market session found sellers after the gap up open, but bulls ultimately won the day, climbing the wall of worry to set new records. However, futures trade missed this morning, facing the latest read on Retail Sales and the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting. As inflation concerns linger in the bond market, worries grow that the Fed could hint of interest higher rates in 2032. Should they do so, expect price volatility to follow as investors digest the future ramifications. Plan your risk carefully!

Overnight Asian markets rallied with modest gains across the board. European markets also trading in the green this morning, with VW surging 5.6%. U.S. futures have rallied off overnight lows but continue to suggest a flat, mixed open ahead of potentially market-moving economic reports. Fasten your seatbelts; the next couple of days could be an exciting ride.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we now have more than 100 companies, but quite a few are not verified. Notable reports include COUP, CRWD, DBI, JILL, JBL, LEN, & VEL.

News & Technicals’

The market set new records in a choppy market session that seemed to struggle with momentum. Sweden and Latvia joined Germany, France, Italy, and Spain on Monday, stopping the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine over blood clot fears. However, the company says there is no data that really justify these decisions and could have pandemic consequences. According to the U.S. solar industry, they posted record growth in 2020, adding 19.2 gigawatts of new capacity and an increase of 43% from last year. Solar installations are planned to quadruple by 2030.

As I write this report, the U.S. futures trade mixed with retail numbers and the beginning of the FOMC meeting in focus. Consensus estimates say retail numbers will decline rather sharply from the last reading, but they have set the expectation so low it may not be that hard to top the target. With bond rates moving up and worries about rising inflation, all eyes will be on the Fed announcement Wednesday afternoon. There is speculation that the committee could suggest rate increases by 2023. A long way off, but even a hint that higher rates are possible significant price volatility could be the result. Carefully consider your risk as you plan the path forward over the next couple of days. The NASDAQ is currently pricing in a gap up to test its 50-day average as resistance this morning. Will there be any bears ready to defend? Only time will tell.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

FOMC Meets and Biden Eyes Tax Changes

March 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened slightly higher Monday and then rode the roller-coaster all day long. A late-day rally into the close took all 3 major indices out near their highs on reopening optimism. This left the SPY and DIA at new all-time high closes. On the day, QQQ was up 1.07%, the SPY was up 0.61%, DIA was up 0.51%. The VXX was down sharply to 13.16 and T2122 fell slightly but remains deep in the overbought territory at 97.11. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.604% and Oil (WTI) was off one-third of a percent to $65.37/barrel.

The FOMC meeting starts again Tuesday. While no policy or statement changes are expected at this meeting, markets will be pouring over the new Fed Interest Rate Forecasts. Traders will also be hoping for better forward guidance on future changes to Fed policy when Chair Powell does the post-statement press conference. This comes amid the backdrop of rising interest rates and current expectations of a booming economy as vaccinations reach further into the population and the economy and public opens more and more every day.

In other economic news, Bloomberg reports that President Biden is working on a tax plan that will raise taxes on individuals making over $400,000 and corporations, but is not looking at the “wealth tax” as proposed by Senators Sanders and Warren. This had been hinted at on Sunday when Treasury Sec. Yellen said policies to address the deficit were on the horizon. This would be the first tax hike since 1993. In another plan being discussed are changes in capital gains rates on individuals making more than $1 million, taxes on stock dividends, and even replacing fuel taxes with a mileage-based fee for road use (which would make sure electric vehicle owners pair their share). The timeline that is being discussed seems to be focused on the fall and apparently, leaks report the taxes will not be made retroactive as other tax changes have been in the past.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,138,586 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 548,013 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases fell slightly again to an average of 55,423 new cases per day. Deaths were flat at 1,282 per day. In other good news, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services reported that nursing home case numbers plunged more (83%) than the general public (58%) in the 6 weeks from Dec. 20 to Feb. 14. CT and MS also both announced their states will open vaccinations to all adults as of April 1. This makes 8 states that have announced this expansion about the same time. In addition, PA will ease restrictions on restaurants and businesses on April 4, bringing the total to 13 states that have eased restrictions.

Globally, the numbers rose to 120,846,995 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,674,086 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again to 428,861 per day. Mortality, which lags, was flat, now at 8,482 new deaths per day. Monday saw major news on the vaccine front in Europe as German, France, Italy, and Spain joining 11 other European countries in suspending use of the AZN vaccine (over blood-clotting fears). The EU and WHO continue to say there is no real evidence to support those suspensions and urged countries to keep vaccinating. However, the damage is done to public confidence and the UK is claiming it is a nationalist attack based on Brexit since the AZN vaccine came from England.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned positive on generally modest moves. Shenzhen +0.91%) and Shanghai (+0.78%) led the gains today while Indonesia (-0.23%) and India (-0.11%) were typical of the losses. In Europe, markets are leaning strongly to the green side at this point in their day, but also on modest moves. The FTSE (+0.60%), DAX (+0.68%), and CAC (+0.24%) are typical of the rest of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.10% open, the SPY implying a +0.03% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.45% open at this point in the morning.

The major economic news for Tuesday includes Feb. Retail Sales, and Feb. Import and Export Indexes (all at 8:30 am), Feb. Industrial Production (9:15 am), and Jan. Business Inventories (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open include DBI and JBL. Then after the close, ADV, CAL, and LEN report.

With little economic news or earnings on tap, all eyes will remain on bond yields and the Fed meeting that starts today as traders look for reassurance on the inflation front. A bullish trend (at the all-time highs) remains in place, but the large-caps seem to be pushing against some resistance at this level, for the moment. Again, the general good mood about recovery and the $1,400 direct payments seem to be providing a tailwind for bulls. However, as mentioned, the market may wait on more direction from the Fed before making any big moves.

Be on the lookout for volatility whenever markets are looking indecisive. As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Also, keep in mind that you are not a mystic. So, don’t try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HPQ, DVN, NLSN, AVY, HON, NKLA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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