After a massive overnight recovery from the fear generated by Iranian retaliatory rocket attacks, markets rallied early Wednesday.  However, there was also a selloff when it was announced that President Trump would address the nation late morning.  Completely unexpectedly, the President adopted a relatively de-escalatory tone.  Markets rallied hard the rest of the morning on that surprisingly measured and responsible stance.

However, after lunch, markets chopped sideways the rest of the day.  The day ended off the highs, but the SPY gained 0.52%, the DIA gained 0.58% and the QQQ (which did close at a new all-time high close) gained 0.75%.  As you’d expect, the VXX was down again to a very low 14.80.  While this was a great day for bulls, there are still some concerns about this situation that should be kept in mind. 

Remember, in addition to claiming victory, the President did add more new sanctions and did threaten Iran again.  Second, Iran has not truly backed down and their replacement for the killed General Soleimani is essentially a clone, with the same geopolitical outlook, resources and international networks in place.  Third, after the President’s recent new deployments, the US has 60,000 troops in the Gulf.  This makes for a lot of chances on both sides for mistakes, rogue actions or local events to spiral larger.  Then, of course, we also have the fact that President Trump isn’t known for consistency, especially when it comes to being consistent with positions contrary to his own previous threats or bluster. 

Finally, President Trump said he’d ask NATO to both: 1) pull out of the 2015 JCPOA deal (which he already pulled the US out of) and 2) get involved in military deterrence of Iran in the Persian Gulf.  However, as late as Tuesday both Germany and France had made statements in support of keeping the deal alive and on Wednesday (prior to Trump’s address) the UK’s PM told UK Parliament that the 2015 deal was the best and only way to create lasting peace in the middle east without a nuclear Iran.  So, NATO support of the President’s request or position seems quite unlikely.

The point is, while the situation seems better than was expected and all is well now, we are not out of the woods on this story yet.  More importantly, the ease at which the market has brushed off potential negatives such as the threat of war should give us pause…a reason to be cautious. 

Thursday’s major economic news is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and three Fed speakers over the course of the morning.  There are no earnings reports on the day.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green on hopes of middle-east de-escalation.  In Europe, markets are mostly green on the perceived ramp down in tensions.   As of 7:45 am, U.S. futures are pointing to a significant gap higher of between 0.4% and 0.6% across the major indices.

Once again, with any path to de-escalation open, it’s hard to bet against the bulls.  They’ve only wanted to hear good news for a long time now.  However, this is also a risk factor, because it is things Mr. Market doesn’t expect that causes big shocks.  So, all we can do is continue to be nimble, use hedges and/or limit exposure.  As always, you know my mantra, keep planning your trades, and trading your plans.  Taking profits along the way, move your stops to protect yourself, and wait for the trade to come to you. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: INXN, NFLX, CL, LPX, CNC, BIDU, IGT, ZS, MIC, ULTA. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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