Earnings Are Strong But Fears Still Lurk

On Wednesday large caps gapped slightly higher and the QQQ gapped slightly lower.  However, in a slow grinding way, it was the bull’s day again after the open.  This left all 3 major indices with nice white candles that closed very near the highs.  On the day, SPY gained 0.80%, DIA gained 0.84%, and QQQ gained 0.77%.  The VXX fell more than 6% to 29.94 and T2122 moved into the overbought territory at 84.00.  10-year bond yields jumped back up to 1.295% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 4.5%, the largest gain in 3 months, back up to $70.20/barrel. The dollar was down on the day and commodities were generally higher.

During the day cryptocurrencies rallied.  This came after both Elon Musk (CEO of TSLA) and Jack Dorsey (CEO of TWTR) endorsed cryptocurrencies and talked up a bullish case for them.  Musk said that SPCE owns Bitcoin (markets already knew that TSLA still owns some of the cryptocurrency) and Dorsey went so far as to “hope” Bitcoin can bring world peace.  On the day Bitcoin closed back above $32,000.

After the close, GM announced that it will halt most of its full-size pickup production in North America due to the ongoing chip shortage.  The shortage is expected to cost the company $110 billion in revenue for 2021.  On the same issue, TXN pointed to the issue as well when it gave its revenue forecast going forward.

So far this morning, AAL, ABT, DHR, T, MMC, BIIB, DOW, DHI, FTB, DGX, ALLE, and SNA have all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  NEW and AEP beat on earnings but came up shy on the revenue line.  Finally, LUV beat on the revenue line but missed on earnings.  So, as of now, it has been another very strong day of earnings reports.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Hong Kong (+1.83%), Indonesia (+1.78%), and Singapore (+1.29%) paced the gains.  This came as the larger exchanges lagged, but still gained half of a percent or more.  In Europe, we see a similar story taking shape with green across the board.  The DAX (+0.89%) and CAC (+0.82%) are typical of the continent.  However, the FTSE (+0.10%) lags.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open just on the green side of flat.  The DIA is implying a +0.13% open, the SPY implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.18% open.  The dollar is a bit lower this morning and 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 1.30%.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and June Existing Home Sales (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABB, ABT, ALK, ALLE, AAL, AEP, T, BIIB, BX, BCO, CLF, CROX, DHI, DHR, DPZ, DOW, FITB, FAF, FCX, GPC, HZO, MMC, NEM, NUE, ORI, POOL, BPOP, DGX, RS, SNA, SON, LUV, TPH, UNP, and WSO before the open.  Then after the close, SAM, COF, CSL, CE, FE, INTC, RNR, RHI, SKX, SNAP, SIVB, TWTR, and WRB report.

The bulls showed strong follow-through on Wednesday. However, some resistance remains overhead. In addition, fear about the Delta variant and chip shortages are building again. On the other hand, earnings continue very strong and that has to be good news on the bullish side. In other words, the bulls have very short-term control, but the bullish trend has not been reestablished yet after putting in a lower-low. And fears tracing back to the pandemic have not been put completely to rest yet. Just, be cautious. Volatility and uncertainty make uncomfortable companions for traders.

Once again, remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Trading a volatile market is difficult at best. So, manage your current positions first and if you do trade, stay nimble and cautious. Do not chase, stick with your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Trading success is all about consistency and that means taking singles and doubles. Limiting losses and taking profits when we get them is the key. Just keep piling up those trading goals met. Eventually, that will compound to a huge gain and in the meantime, you will sleep better.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ORCL, PTON, BCRX, T, MSFT, LI DQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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