The SPY and QQQ gapped lower, while the DIA gapped up a bit on Friday.  After that, all 3 major indices put in a mild lackadaisical rally the rest of the day. This left the QQQ with an indecisive candle (Spinning Top type) while both large-cap indices printed large-body white candles.  The DIA ended at another all-time high close and so did the SPY (although to a much smaller extent and still within Thursday’s candle wick).  On the day, SPY was up 0.13%, DIA up 0.92%, and QQQ down 0.81%.  The VXX fell almost 2% to 13.95 and T2122 is almost pegged at 98.94, deep int the overbought territory.  After the premarket jump, 10-year bond yields were stable during the session and ended up at 1.625% (spiked higher versus the Thursday close) and Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent to $65.60/barrel.

In good news, some Americans reported they had already received their $1,400 direct payment on Friday.  This came just 24hr after the bill was signed into law.  In other good news, the CDC reported the US has surpassed 101 million vaccinations, is now administering 2.2 million vaccinations per day, and hopes to hit 3 million per day by the end of the month.  That blistering pace is sure to help the country get back to normal sooner and may have helped the bulls with their Friday rally, even against the tide of rising bond yields.

On Sunday, Treasury Sec. Yellen made the rounds telling various media that while the relief package stimulus will raise prices in the short-term, that the effect won’t last.  She went on to say that true inflation risks remain “small and manageable.”  Regardless of the accuracy of those words, this was exactly what markets had been hoping to hear.  Still, 10-year bond yield remains above 1.6% in overnight trading, which is sure to temper market comfort with Yellen’s words. This is all prelude to the Fed meeting later in the week.

Related to the virus, US infections are slowly falling from the plateau level. The totals have risen to 30,081,657 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 547,234 deaths. However, the number of new cases fell again to an average of 54,373 cases per day.  Deaths also fell again to 1,290 per day.  Late Friday, MI announced they will open vaccinations to everyone over the age of 16 on April 5.  Then Sunday, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said that guidelines will be much more liberal by July Fourth if US cases keep dropping. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 120,486,601 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,666,564 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again to 420,462 per day.  Mortality, which lags, continued to tick down slightly, now at 8,443 new deaths per day.  Italy went into lockdown again over the weekend in all the major population centers.  They also pre-announced that the country will impose a 3-day lockdown for Easter weekend in a couple of weeks.  Germany also declared that a third wave was now underway in that country.  This came as more European countries have suspended the use of the AZN vaccine due to blood-clotting concerns.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed in mostly small moves.  Shenzhen (-2.71%) and Shanghai (-0.96%) were outliers to the downside while India (+1.33%) was an outlier to the upside.  However, more typical was Japan (+0.17%) and South Korea (-0.28%).  In Europe, markets are mostly in the green at this point in their day.  The FTSE (+0.34%), DAX (+0.17%), and CAC (+0.36%) are typical of the rest of the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly green open after pulling back from overnight highs.  The SIA is implying a +0.31% open, the SPY implying a +0.15% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.23% open at this point in the morning.

The only major economic news on Monday is NY Empire State Fed Mfg. Index (7:30 am).  There are no major earnings reports before the open.  However, after the close, QFIN, and BEKE report.

With no economic news or earnings on tap, all eyes will be on bond yields and the coming Fed meeting as traders look for reassurance on the inflation front. A bullish trend (at the all-time highs in the large-caps) seems to have the momentum for now. A general good mood as the $1,400 direct payments have started hitting accounts is likely to be a boon for retail names and possibly the market in general as CNBC reports a large percentage of the public intends to put the money to work in the market.

As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Also, keep in mind that you are not a mystic. So, don’t try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline.  Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MVIS, BB, NOK, JWN, LUV, CPB, FCX, AG, LUMN, F, WMT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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