Markets gapped down Friday on some bad economic data (Dec. Retail Sales miss lower than expected Producer Price Index, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index much lower than expected.  Then all the major indices put in indecisive candles for the session.  The QQQ put in a black Spinning Top type candle while the DIA and SPY printed Dojis.  On the day, SPY lost 0.73%, DIA lost 0.62%, and QQQ lost 0.79%.  The VXX gained 2.5% to 17.11 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 59.70.  10-year bond yields sold off strongly as traders bought into safety, ending at 1.087% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 3% to $52.04/barrel.

GS has raised their 2021 US Economic forecasts based on the $1.9 billion Biden stimulus plan.  Among the changes are an increase in economic expansion forecast to 6.6% (vs. 6.4% previously) and a reduction of unemployment forecast down to 4.5% (vs. 4.8% previously).  Lastly, GS now says that disposable income will increase 4.5% (vs. 3.8% increase previously).

On Monday, China reported higher than expected growth for Q4 (6.5% vs. 6.1% est.).  However, consumer spending for Dec. was lower than expected (4.6% vs. 5% in Nov.).  That said, economists are estimating a slowdown of growth for the year 2021, reducing estimates from 8.4% to 7.4% for the coming year.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 24,626,441 confirmed cases and 408,623 deaths.  This comes as the average number of new cases has fallen to 211,000 new cases and deaths have flattened at 3,326 per day.  As usual, the President is out of step, trying to lift travel restrictions from Brazil, Europe, and the UK on his last day in office. President-elect Biden has said this move will be reversed Wed. at noon.

Globally, the numbers rose to 96,095,456 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,051,742 deaths.  As a reference, the world average new cases is down to 666,551 per day, but deaths remain high at over 13,600 new deaths per day.  Israel hit another record number of new cases as its government is considering extending its national lockdown.  In Germany, PM Merkel is meeting with state leaders to discuss a tighter set of restrictions, including mandatory N-95 masking by anyone in public.  This comes as Germany announced it has discovered yet another mutation of the virus among 35 patients.  Still, in hopeful news, the UK’s Minister for Vaccine Deployment said that national hopeful news, UK Minister for Vaccine Deployment said that restrictions in the UK could be gradually eased in March as the top 4 cohorts of the most vulnerable should have received vaccinations by then.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned mostly green.  Hong Kong (+2.70%) and South Korea (+2.61%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.96%) and Shanghai (-0.86%) paced losing exchanges.  In Europe, so far today markets are mixed but leaning green on modest moves.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE -0.05% in on the res side of flat, DAX (+0.23%) has a modest gain, and CAC (+0.01%) is just on the green side of flat.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a small gap higher.  The DIA is implying a +0.59% open, while the SPY implies a +0.64% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.79% open.

There is no major economic news for Tuesday.  Major earnings reports on the day include BAC, CMA, GS, HAL, PETS, SCHW, and STT before the open.  Then after the close, JBHT, NFLX, and ZION report.

With planned weekend protests at state capitols mostly failing to take place (give or take 25 armed protesters in Michigan), the market seems to be ready to start the week rested and hopeful for a transition to the Biden Administration. With 25,000 troops plus thousands of Federal Law Enforcement, as well as Iraq-style Red and Green zones fenced off, it would seem unlikely there will be any protests, riots, or disruptions to the inauguration. In fact, the new administration is already starting to work as new Sec. of Treasury Yellen is calling for action on the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan.

So, look for a bullish start to the short week. As always, follow trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Lock in those profits when you achieve trade goals and stick with your discipline.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don’t have to try to get rich every day.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas for Tuesday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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