Markets gapped down at the open Tuesday and then printed indecisive candles in all 3 major indices.  The large-caps both printed white Doji type candles while the QQQ printed a black Spinning Top type candle.  On the day, QQQ fell 0.32%, SPY fell 0.54% and DIA fell 0.56%.  The VXX also fell a percent to 18.30 and T2122 dropped just a touch, but remains deep in overbought territory at 97.05.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.87% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $41.36/barrel.

A couple days after MRNA reported initial efficacy of 94.5% for their vaccine (95 test subjects), PFE and BNTX announced that additional analysis has shown their vaccine is 95% effective (170 test subjects) and they now have enough safety data to file for an emergency use waiver from the FDA within days.  They report that there were 8 infections among those who got the vaccine (versus 162 among those who got a placebo) after 2 doses. So far, no “serious” safety concerns have been reported two months after the first administration.  (There were 2% of recipients who had severe reactions to the first dose and just under 4% who reported fatigue after the first and/or second dose.  However, those were not deemed major safety concerns. The typical 2-year study of long-term safety effects will be waived given the 1.3 million people who have already died from the virus worldwide.)  This news is likely to buoy PFE, BTNX, MRNA (because they have the same class of vaccine), and the market as a whole (including Oil).  

TGT crushed estimates in its early morning report.  LOW came in short of estimates.  BA is set to jump on both vaccine news and a Reuters report that the FAA has recertified the 737 Max to fly in the US again (after a 20-month grounding).

On the virus front, the US saw another 157,000+ cases and over 1,600 deaths on Tuesday.  This surge has raised the US totals to 11,697,469 confirmed cases and 254,291 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases to 160,172 while the average deaths rose to 1,188/day.  Again Tuesday, we saw new restrictions, partial lockdowns, and Governors/Municipalities begging people to take mitigation measures (wear masks, distance, and avoid gatherings, especially indoors) across the country.  The FDA also approved the first self-test for home use from unlisted company Lucira.

Globally, the numbers rose to 56,069,908 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,346,103 deaths.  Asia is starting to see another surge as even Japan and South Korea are seeing record numbers of cases the last week.  Southern Australia is locking down again (6 days this time) after a new cluster has been seen.  In China, the government declared they have found their own vaccine is safe and effective.  The difference of the Chinese vaccine versus the two in the US is that the Chinese version only requires standard refrigeration and is shelf-stable for up to 3 years.  However, the numbers from their study were not provided and the study hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed.  In Europe, there are first signs that the lockdowns started a couple of weeks ago are helping to plateau new case counts.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned to the green side.  Japan (-1.11%) led the few losers, while Taiwan (+1.33%) and Thailand (+1.09%) led gainers.  So far today we see a modest green move across the board in Europe.   The FTSE (+0.29%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (+0.50%) are typical of European bourses as of mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modest green open.  The DIA is implying a 0.47% gap up, the SPY implying a 0.35% gap, and the QQQ implying a 0.17% modest gain at the open.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Oct. Building Permits and Oct. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed Speakers (Williams at 12:15 pm, Bullard at 1:20 pm, and Bostic at 5 pm).  Major earnings reports on the day include AVYA, LOW, TGT, and TJX before the open.  After the close, KEYS, LB, NVDA, and UGI report.

The bulls are likely to run today on positive vaccine news. However, don’t get caught up in FOMO. Remember that price moves in a zig-zag pattern. So, don’t be the last one buying the zig unless you can handle the zag to come. Focus on discipline, taking profits (goals/targets) on the way, and work your trade plan.  Consistency trumps the occasional homerun every time. Stick to the trading rules you have built, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance.  Good trading!

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ICPT, WLL, DKNG, GTHX, MUR, DVAX, OXY, CPE, WFC, APA, OKE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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