Markets gapped down Thursday on more Russia invasion news/fear.  After an hour of follow-through, all 3 major indices ground sideways until early afternoon.  At that point, we got the final wave downward before going out on a half-hour of sideways action. This left us with large black candles that have failed the T-line in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 2.13%, DIA lost 1.71%, and QQQ lost 2.97%.  The VXX rose almost 12% to 22.96 and T2122 dropped all the way back down to 30.94 (in the lower end of the mid-range).  10-year bond yields fell again to 1.965% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.21% to $91.59/barrel, which is a bit odd if a Russian invasion is truly the main Oil market driver.

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Economic data for the day was a mixed bag but leaned to the bearish side again.  January Building Permits came in a couple hundred thousand higher than expected, but January House Starts came in about 70,000 less than expected.  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also came in 30k higher than was expected and the Philly Fed Mfg. Index came in even worse than the expected terrible number at 16 (20 expected, 50 means expanding).  To top it off, Fed Hawk Bullard, reiterated his calls for fast, aggressive, and continuing Fed action as he repeated his claims that the Fed has waited too long to tackle inflation and it could get out of control.

After the close Thursday, TDS, KEYS, QDEL, AL, RDFN, and EXEL all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, USM and ROKU beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  On the other side, DLR and VTR both missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.

So far this morning DKNG, BLMN, and DE have reported beats on both lines.  However, PPL and ARNC beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  On the other side, B beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  There have been no reports yet today that missed on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the red.  Hong Kong (-1.88%), Australia (-1.02%), and New Zealand (-0.94%) led the region lower. However, Shanghai (+0.66%) and Shenzhen (+0.27%) managed to stay green.  In Europe, stocks are mixed but lean to the green side at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.33%), DAX (-0.13%), and CAC (+0.52%) are pacing gains with a few smaller exchanges as well as Russia (-0.88%) lagging.  Fear of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains the main story in Europe in the early afternoon.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.37% open, the SPY is implying a +0.48% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.62% open at this hour.  10-year bonds are up slightly to 1.974% and Oil (WTI) is down over 2% in early trading on news of scheduled tentative Russia-US talks next week.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jan. Existing Home Sales (10 am), a Fed Monetary Policy Report (time TBA), and 3 Fed speakers (Waller at 10:45 am, Williams at 11 am, and Brainard at 1:30 pm).  Also, remember that US Markets are closed on Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARNC, BLMN, DE, DKNG, and PPL.  There are no reports scheduled for after the close

News of talks between the US Sec. of State and Russian Foreign Minister Russian, tentatively scheduled for next week have given European and US stocks a little help this morning. However, we have to remember there will be a long 3-day news cycle before US markets open again. So, while some may run with the potentially good news, be very careful joining that crowd. The truth is we don’t know what will happen or when. And frankly, with 150k Russian troops plus tens of thousands of “Ukrainian Separatist Militia” on the Ukrainian border or inside Eastern Ukraine, it would not take much for a mistake to turn into war. (Fighting is already in progress between Ukraine and Separatists.) So, the prudent course is to go into the weekend flat or hedged. Just keep fighting the urge to put on rose-colored glasses and trade like you’re making up time.

Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is on vacation this week). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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