DIA diverged from the broader index ETFs Monday. SPY gapped up 0.25%, DIA opened 0.08% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.47%. At that point, SPY and QQQ both followed through with a long, slow, but steady rally. This went on until 3:30 p.m. when both SPY and QQQ sold off the last half hour. For its part, after opening flat, DIA just chopped sideways for 90 minutes and then sold off for an hour before grinding to the side until 3:30 p.m. During that last 30 minutes, it too sold off sharply. This action gave us three divergent candles in the major index ETFs. The QQQ was clearly the bullish leader, gapping higher and then printing a large white-body candle with a small upper wick. Some would even call it a Trader’s Best Friend signal. Meanwhile, SPY gave us a gap-up, white-bodied, Spinning Top that retested, and passed the test of, its T-line (8ema). Finally, DIA printed a black-body candle with a significant upper wick.
On the day, six of the 10 of the sectors were in the red again as Energy (-2.10%) and Communications Services (-1.78%) were far and away the worst-performing sectors. On the other side, Technology (+1.11%) was way, way out front of the other gaining sectors (by 0.90%). Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.42%, DIA lost 0.23%, and QQQ gained 1.44%. (In the process, QQQ printed yet another new all-time high and new all-time high close.) VXX was up 1.69% to close at 43.22 and T2122 climbed, but remained in the top half of its oversold territory to close at 13.11. On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields climbed yet again to 4.405% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.00% to close at $70.58 per barrel. So, Monday gave us gaps higher with follow-through from the SPY and especially the QQQ. Meanwhile, DIA continued its selloff, printing an eighth-straight black-bodied candle and lower close. This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.
The major economic news scheduled for Monday included the NY Empire State Mfg. Index, which came in sharply lower at +0.20 (compared to a forecast of 6.40 and far below November’s 31.20 reading). Later, Preliminary December S&P Global Mfg. PMI was down slightly to 48.3 (versus a 49.4 forecast and a November value of 49.7). At the same time, Preliminary December S&P Services PMI was up at 58.5 (compared to a 55.7 forecast and November’s 56.1 number). Together, these gave us a Preliminary December S&P Global Composite PMI, which was higher at 56.6 (versus a 55.1 forecast and a November’s 54.9 reading).
In Fed news, we are in the Fed quiet period as the FOMC meeting begins Tuesday.
Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily toward the red side with just one of the 12 exchanges in positive territory. Thailand (-1.70%), India (-1.35%), and South Korea (-1.29%) led the region lower. In Europe, the story is shaping up to be very similar. Only three of the 14 bourses are in the green (barely) at midday. The CAC (+0.15%), DAX (+0.01%), and FTSE (-0.80%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day. The DIA implies a -0.35% open, the SPY is implying a -0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.18% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are running higher to 4.436% and Oil (WTI) is down one percent to $70.00 per barrel in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Nov. Core Retail Sales and Nov. Retail Sales (both at 8:30 a.m.), Nov. Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), Oct. Business Inventories and Oct. Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.), and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.). However, the major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to AMTM. Then, after the market, HEI and WOR report.
In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Preliminary No. Building Permits, Q3 Current Account, Nov. Housing Starts, EIA Weekly Crude Inventories, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Q4 Current Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 1st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 2nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 3rd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 Longer-Term Interest Rate Projection, and FOMC Chair Press Conference are reported. On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q3 Core PCE Price Index, Q3 GDP, Q3 GDP Price Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, Nov. Existing Home Sales, Nov. US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Oct. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet. Finally, on Friday, November Core PCE Price Index, Nov. PCE Price Index, Nov. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ABM, BIRK, GIS, JBL, TTC, LEN, MU, MLKN, SCS, and WS report. On Thursday, we hear from ACN, KMX, CTAS, CAG, DRI, FDS, LW, PAYX, BB, FDX, AVO, NKE, and SCHL. Finally, on Friday, CCL and WGO report.
So far this morning, AMTM beat on both the top and bottom lines.
With that background, the market seems bearish so far in the early session. All three major index ETFs gapped down to open the premarket, although DIA clearly was most bearish while the others gave up ground grudgingly. Since that start, all three have printed Doji-type, indecisive candles in the early session. SPY is retesting its T-line (8ema) from above. Once again, at the moment, SPY and QQQ are above their T-line while DIA remains below its own T-line. It is worth remembering that SPY and QQQ still sit at or near all-time highs, but DIA has given back 2%-3% since its highs. With one of the three above its T-line, one right at that 8ema, and one below its T-line again, the short-term trend has to be seen as undecided. However, further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs. In terms of extension, as of last night, QQQ was getting stretched above and as of this morning DIA is getting a little stretched below its T-line. Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator remains well into its oversold territory. So, both sides of the market have room to move and its hard to say whether the cliff-diving DIA or the spiking QQQ is more of an indicator. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in red numbers at this point of the morning. NVDA (-1.80%) and AMD (-1.67%) lead the pack lower, while TSLA (+2.60%) sits 2.70% better off than any of the others. Once again, TSLA is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded by about 2.25 times over NVDA (with the next closest 12 times less in dollar-volume than NVDA).
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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