The market gapped about two-thirds of a percent higher Friday at the open.  From there, we saw a sideways grind in all three major indices until an afternoon rally took off.  Profit taking the last 15 minutes of the day closed markets off their highs, but it was still a white candle day in all 3 of the major indices.  The QQQ printed an indecisive Spinning Top type candle while the DIA printed something that could be called a Morning Star signal if you squint.  For the day QQQ closed up 0.88%, SPY up 1.38%, and DIA up 1.41%.  The VXX lost 6% to close at 19.08 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) shot up back deep into overbought territory at 94.70.  10-year bond yields rose to 0.898% and Oil (WTI) fell two and a half percent to $40.12/barrel.

Early Monday, MRNA announced that its vaccine candidate was 94% effective against Covid-19 according to the initial look at 54 cases.  As has been mentioned previously, this does not speak to the safety of the vaccine and it is based on a small sample size.  However, markets are likely to jump on this news at least as confirmation of the PFE vaccine news from a week or so ago. At most, this is the second source of a vaccine against the virus, but this one too requires strict extreme low-temperature storage requirements.

In other business news, on Sunday AAL announce dit is slashing the number of flights between the US and UK in December due to weak demand brought on by the virus surge in both countries. Early Monday, PNC announced it will buy the US operations of Spanish bank BBVA. This $11.6 billion deal would be the second-largest bank merger of all time.

On the virus front, the spread continues unchecked.  Friday the US had the worst day of any country since the beginning of the pandemic and had a new case count (188,000) almost 2.5 times higher than our worst day during the summer surge.  This raised the US totals to 11,367,214 confirmed cases and 251,901 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 152,136 while the average deaths rose to 1,156/day.  45 states saw an increase of more than 10% in new case counts week-to-week with 17 of those seeing an increase of more than 50% in the period.  4 states saw a small increase (up less than a 10% week-on-week) and on SC reported a reduction (but that is believed to be a reporting glitch with their state’s data).  This comes as many states are enacting new lockdown and restrictions.

Globally, the numbers rose to 54,936,761 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,326,265 deaths.  With lockdowns in place in many parts of Europe for the last couple of weeks, there is starting to be a little better news.  Germany reported last night that they are seeing the first signs of infection rates flattening.  Meanwhile, the spread is picking up steam in Asia as Japan reported 3 consecutive record-high case count days,

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Australian markets were paused at the open due to a data issue, but managed to recover.  Taiwan (+2.10%), Japan (+2.05%), and South Korea (+1.97%) led the gainers.  There were no losers although New Zealand markets were closed.  In Europe, we see a very similar picture so far today.  The only red is from Denmark (-0.90%), while the rest of the continent followed Asia higher.  Among the 3 major bourses, FTSE is up 1.61%, DAX up 1.35%, and CAC up 2.24% as of mid-day.  These are typical of the rest of the indices across Europe.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to strong gaps higher in the large-caps.  The DIA is implying a 1.75% gap up and the SPY is implying a 1.19% pop higher at the open.  The NASDAQ is implying a flat open with the QQQ at -0.04% as of now.

The major economic news for Monday is limited to Nov. NY Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and 2 Fed Speakers (Daily at 1:45pm and Clarida at 2 pm).  Major earning releases include ACM, JD, PANW, and TSN before the open.  After the close, BIDU, IQ, and BEKE report.

The MRNA vaccine news was expected, but very welcome nonetheless. Futures show we are going to get a pop out of the news and maybe a resumption of rotations out of the lockdown tech names. Remember not to chase the moves that you have missed. Fear of missing out can be deadly for a trading account. Keep in mind that the market moves in a zig-zap pattern. Don’t be the last one buying on the zig unless you can handle the zag to come. There will always be either another stock setup down the road. So, keep locking in profits, maintain discipline, and working your plan.  Stick to your trading rules, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BP, JETS, UPWK, EVRI, KO, TGI, PSX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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