All 3 major indices gapped higher about a percent to new all-time highs on Tuesday. However, from there we saw divergence and a different reaction.  The SPY ran up and then sold off to leave an ugly high-wick Shooting Star type of candle.  The DIA ran and then sold off hard closing near the lows to print an ugly high-wick, black candle.   At the same time QQQ formed sort of a big-body Spinning Top closing at the all-time high close.  On the day SPY gained 1.05%, the QQQ gained 1.28%, and DIA gained 0.60% (on the gap up alone).  The VXX rose about a percent to close at 17.34 and T2122 climbed again to remain deep into overbought territory at 92.66.  10-year bond yields spiked all the way up to 0.929% and Oil (WTI) fell nearly 2 percent to $44.55/barrel.

After the close, CRM announced it has bought WORK for $26.79/share and .0776 shares of CRM.  At the same time, CRM beat estimates on their earnings reports, but soft forward guidance caused an post-market selloff.  In other corporate news TSLA gapped up over 5% on its first day in the S&P, but sold off to close up 3.10%.  HPE also announced it is moving out of Silicon Valley and will relocate the company HQ to Houston.

On the stimulus front, a bipartisan group of Senators announced a $908 billion relief plan.  This plan was almost immediately shot down as a non-starter by Majority Leader McConnell.  However, McConnell is passing a revised version of his earlier $500 billion plan among Republican colleagues.  In the meantime, House Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Schumer sent a revised Democratic plan to their GOP counterparts.  Neither McConnell nor Pelosi announced any details of their plans or how they might differ from the previously proposed plans.  Both sides are espousing “hope” a deal can be done, but neither side is expressing optimism.  In the meantime, Fed speakers (including Chair Powell in testimony Tuesday) continue to express concern about the uncertainty in the economy and a strong need for more stimulus.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 14,108,606 confirmed cases and 276,979 deaths.  Tuesday saw over 182,000 new cases and 2,614 new deaths (catch-up day from holiday maybe).  That said, the 7-day average of new cases fell to 164,488 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,580/day.  The White House vaccine Czar Slaoui reported that only 15% of patients experience significant side effects from the PFE and MRNA vaccines.  No additional context was offered other than it compares to 150,000-200,000 people getting infected and 1,500-2,000 people dying from the virus each day.  In other vaccine news, the CDC voted 13-1 to name front-line health workers and then care homes as the priority for receiving the vaccine.  The US government also announced overnight that it will pay for “dry ice” and iceboxes to store the PFE-BNTX vaccine for jurisdictions that don’t have an ultra-cold freezer.  This will let the vaccine be stored and used for up to 15 days.

Globally, the numbers rose to 64,325,885 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,489,788 deaths. In Europe, the UK has given temporary approval for the PFE-BTNX vaccine and the Health Minister has said it can start being distributed next week.  Elsewhere in Europe, Germany reported a record daily death toll, France has reinstituted border checks (to prevent French Skiers from returning home without a 7-day quarantine) and Russia will present its freeze-dried vaccine (which requires no refrigeration) to the United Nations today.  In Asia, Japan reported a near-record number of cases, but also a record number of patients in intensive care.  Perhaps not wanting to miss out on the race/news cycle, China has shown reporters its large climate-controlled warehouse filled with vaccine.  They claimed they are ready to ship millions of doses of Chinese-made vaccines to 16 countries as soon as regulators in those countries approve the medicines. Among these are Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, UAE, and Indonesia.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Indonesia (+1.56%) and South Korea (+1.58%) were dramatic outliers as most Asian exchanges closed near and on either side of flat.  In Europe, markets are also mixed but lean more to the modestly red side.  The only significant gainer is Greece (+1.35%), however, most are modestly lower at this point.  The FTSE (+0.28%) is leading, but the DAX (-0.34%) and CAC (-0.20%) are much more typical.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly lower open.  The DIA is implying a loss of 0.41%, the SPY a loss of 0.25%, and the QQQ a loss of 0.24% at this point in the premarket.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Nov. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 am), Factory Orders (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and the Fed Beige Book (2 pm).  There are also 2 Fed speakers (Quarles at 9 am and Chair Powell testifies at 10 am).  Earnings reports are limited to PDCO and RY before the open.  After the close GHLD, PVH, SPLK, and SNPS report.

Yesterday, we saw the bulls step in to start the month (maybe aided by stimulus hope and TSLA joining the S&P). However, we printed very indecisive candles at best. So, there was no follow-through. This comes as we sit at or near all-time highs and the market remains very overextended. Don’t predict and for heaven’s sake don’t chase moves you missed. As always, respect the trend, support/resistance, and price action. Maintain that discipline to your trading rules. Keep booking those singles and doubles. Leave “swinging for the fence” to the amateurs. Profits pay the bills, not bragging rights.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NBR, CMCSA, AG, QCOM, VRT, VG, CELH. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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