Earnings Remain Strong But a Few Miss

Markets were fairly volatile intraday on Tuesday.  All 3 major indices gapped higher and ground sideways for an hour, but then sold off hard, back to the previous close before rallying again and then selling off again the last 15 minutes of the day.  After all of that, the 3 major indices ended up little changed.  All 3 printed black body candles with at least some higher wick and the two large caps closing near their lows.  On the day, SPY gained 0.10% (to another new all-time high close), DIA lost 0.01%, and QQQ gained 0.28% (after having been at a new all-time high intraday).  The VXX gained 2% to 21.47 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory to 70.12.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.612% and Oil (WTI) rose about 1% to $84.58/barrel.

After hours, AMD, MSFT, GOOG, V, CB, CHRW, and FFIV among others all easily beat on both lines.  Meanwhile, TXN beat on earnings but missed on the revenue line.  TWTR posted misses on both lines, including a terrible miss on earnings.

In premarket earnings reports, TMO, MCD, BMY, ADP, FISV, TEL, KHC, HLT, GRMN, AVY, MAS, HOG, and KO all delivered beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, CME, BSX, IP, GD, and WAB beat on earnings while coming up short on revenue.  In the opposite camp, DTE and ROL missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.  IP was the only report to miss on both lines so far today.

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In political news, Senate Democrats unveiled their 15% Corporate Minimum Tax proposal on Tuesday.  It is important to note that despite the name, the tax would only apply to companies that book $1 billion in profit for 3 consecutive years AND it includes credits as well as carry-forward of losses to offset the tax.  On the health side, the FDA Advisory Panel also recommended that the FDA approve the PFE vaccine for kids aged 5-11 (in low doses).  If the FDA does approve this use of the PFE vaccine, then CDC Dir. Walensky is expected to sign off and shots could begin immediately.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside.  Singapore (+0.42%), Taiwan (+0.24%), and Australia (+0.07%) were the only green in the region.  At the same time, Hong Kong (-1.57%), Shenzhen (-1.10%), and Shanghai (-0.98%) led the region lower.  The same story is taking shape in Europe at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.08%), DAX (-0.26%), and CAC (-0.25%) are typical of the continent with only a flat Greece and Belgium avoiding a red sweep in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are still pointing to a flat open.  The DIA is implying a +0.05% open, the SPY implies a -0.05% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year Bond yields are down significantly to 1.59% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.25%.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is Sept. Durable Goods Orders, Sept. Trade Balance, and Sept. Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include APH, AIT, ARES, ADP, AVY, BA, BCO, BMY, BG, CME, KO, CSTM, DTE, EVR, FISV, GRMN, GD, GM, HOG, HES, HLT, IP, KHC, MHO, MAS, MCD, NSC, ODFL, OC, PAG, ROL, R, SLGN, SIX, SPOT, TMHC, TEL, TDY, TEVA, TMO, TNL, UMC, VRT, and WAB before the open.  Then after the close, AFL, AEM, ALGN, ALSN, NYL, AR, ACGL, ASGN, AVB, AXS, BHE, BMRN, CACI, CG, CCS, CHX, CNO, CTSH, FIX, CYH, EBAY, EW, ESI, EHC, ENSG, EQT, RE, FLEX, FLS, F, THG, INVH, JBT, KLAC, MTH, MEOH, MKSI, MOH, MUSA, MYRG, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, PPD, RJF, SIGI, SCI, NOW, SNBR, STC, SU, TDOC, TROX, TTMI, TWLO, UCTT, URI, WCN, WFG, XLNX, and YUMC report..

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Once again, the flood of earnings is going to be the driver today, at least early on. I would characterize last night’s reports as well as those that are already out this morning as largely positive. However, there were some misses on either earnings or revenue. There were even a couple of companies that missed on both. So, as always, it isn’t necessarily the news (earnings) that matters, but instead what’s most important is how Mr. Market reacts to that news. Be prepared, either way.

The trend remains bullish and the large-caps are still sitting at all-time highs (with the tech-heavy QQQ just below that breakout). Remember, the trend is our friend, but also keep in mind that more of the AAPL and AMZN report tonight. So, focus on your trading process and on managing the things you can control. Remember that it’s discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. And that includes consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops. Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Trade carefully and think twice about holding through earnings.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NNDM, XELA, NIO, CHPT, SLV, FSM, F, GM, MS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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