The morning was a Bear trap on Wednesday.  SPY gapped down 0.19%, DIA opened just on the green side of flat, and QQQ gapped down 0.50%.  From there, all three major index ETFs continued to sell, reaching the lows of the day just after 10 a.m.  However, that was it for the Bears.  From that point, all three rallied until 11:10 a.m.  At that point, DIA continued higher at the same pace while SPY drifted higher and QQQ meandered sideways.  Finally, all three rallied the last 10 minutes of the day, going out very near their highs.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with lower wicks in all three.  They all closed above their T-line after gapping down below that level at their open. This happened on well-below-average volume in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were in the green with Healthcare (+1.56%) well out in front leading the market higher.  On the other side, the Consumer Cyclical (-0.47%) was the laggard and only sector in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.41%, DIA gained 0.71%, and QQQ gained 0.45%.  Meanwhile VXX lost 2.04% to close at 42.80 while T2122 gained a little to climb back inside the edge of overbought territory, closing at 81.91.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell to close at 4.426% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.13%, closing at $71.15 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a bit of a Bear trap with a move lower, followed by a sharp reversal and the Bulls not giving up the momentum the rest of the day. 

The major economic news on Wednesday included the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in much stronger than expected at +183k (compared to a +148k forecast, but not much above December’s +176k reading).  At the same time, Dec. Exports were down to $266.50 billion (versus November’s $273.4 billion value).  On the incoming side, Dec. Imports were up to $364.90 billion (compared to November’s $351.60 billion number). Together, this gave us a Dec. Trade Balance of -$98.40 billion (which was slightly above the -$96.50 billion forecast and well above November’s -$78.90 billion value).  Later, S&P Global Services PMI was down to 52.7 (better than the 52.4 forecast but down from December’s 55.4 reading).  This gave us a S&P Global Composite PMI of 52.9 (versus a 52.8 forecast but down from December’s 56.8 value).  Later, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was low at 52.8 (compared to a 54.2 forecast and December’s 54.0 reading).  This came on an ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index that was up to 52.3 (from December’s 51.3 number).  On the cost side, the ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index were well down to 60.4 (versus the 64.4 December reading).  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a MUCH larger-than-expected 8.664-million-barrel inventory build (compared to a 2.400-million-barrel forecasted increase and the prior week’s 3.463-million-barrel increase).

In Fed news, on Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned about the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs. He said, “We now face a series of new challenges to the supply chain – natural and man-made disasters from fires and hurricanes to collisions with bridges that take out major ports, canal cloggings and threats of dockworker walkouts; geopolitical disruptions; immigration; and, of course, the threat of large tariffs and the potential for an escalating trade war.”  He continued, “If we see inflation rising or progress stalling in 2025, the Fed will be in the difficult position of trying to figure out if the inflation is coming from overheating or if it’s coming from tariffs.”  He went on, “If in 2018 companies shifted all the easiest things out of China, then what’s left might be the least substitutable goods… In that case, the impact on inflation might be much larger this time.”  Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin also talked about the uncertainty brought by Trump tariff policy and flip-flopping.  He said, “it remains impossible at this early stage to know where cost increases from any tariffs might be absorbed or passed along to consumers.”

After the close, ARM, CENT, CTSH, COHR, ENSG, NVST, F, HI, KMPR, NWSA, ORLY, PTC, QCOM, SNEX, TTMI, and WEX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AFL, CTVA, QGEN, and UHAL all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, ALL, ASGN, CPAY, CCK, DLX, ENS, GL, HOLX, MUSA, SWKS, STE, UGI, and WFRD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ALGN, AVB, BV, PLUS, MCK, MET, MAA, MOH, CNXN, RRX, and SYM missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. Shenzhen (+2.26%), Shanghai (+1,27%), Australia (+1.23%), and South Korea (+1.10%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see green across the board at midday. The CAC (+0.88%), DAX (+0.90%), and FTSE (+1.52%) are leading that region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are up to 4.444% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $71.51 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q4 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 a.m.), as well as Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We hear from Fed members Waller (2:30 p.m.) and Daly (3:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include WMS, AGCO, APD, AB, APTV, MT, ARW, AZN, BCE, BDX, BDC, OWL, BWA, BMY, CX, CMS, CIGI, COP, DAR, LLY, ENTG, EFX, GTES, HP, HSY, HLT, HON, HII, NSIT, ICE, IQV, ITT, K, KVUE, LH, LEA, LNC, LIN, MKL, MMS, MDU, NVT, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PTON, PM, RL, RITM, RBLX, SNA, SPB, TPR, TEX, TRI, UAA, WMG, XEL, XPO, YUM, YUMC, and ZBH. Then after the close, AMRK, AFRM, AMZN, ATR, BYD, CNO, EHC, EXPE, LION, FTNT, FBIN, G, HUBG, ILMN, MTD, MCHP, MTX, MHK, MPWR, NBIX, OTEX, PINS, POST, PFG, RGA, SKX, SONO, SSNC, TTWO, VSAT, and WERN report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Jan. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Participations Rate, Jan. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Dec. Consumer Credit are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AVTR, CBOE, ROAD, FLO, FTV, ULCC, GPRE, KIM, NWL, PAA, PAGP report.

So far this morning, AGCO, AB, APTV, BCE, BDC, OWL, BMY, COP, CRARY, LLY, EMBC, ENTG, HSY, HLT, HON, IQV, LH, LEA, LNC, MMS, RITM, SNA, TPR, TEX, TRI, UA, UAA, WMG, XPO, YUM, and ZBH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, WMS, AZN, CIGI, and PTON beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, AMG, APD, MT, BWA, CMS, DAR, ITT, KVUE, LIN, NVT, PM, SPB, and YUMC all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  However, HII and XEL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the market is undecided so far this morning.  All three major index ETFs are little moved from Wednesday’s close and have printed small-body, indecisive candles in the premarket.  All three are above their T-line (8ema), so, the short-term trend is bullish.  The mid-term downtrend (if you want to call it a trend) remains a mess.  In terms of extension, as mentioned, all three are back close to their T-line.  Meanwhile, T2122 sits just inside of its overbought territory.  So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum, but the Bears may have just a little more slack to work with today.  In terms of the Big Dogs, they are evenly split with five red and five green.  NVDA (+1.14%) is way out front of the gainers while TSLA (-1.69%) is far ahead of the losers.  As far as liquidity goes, it is a modestly liquid early session with TSLA leading with NVDA about 20% behind and the next closes ticker having traded six times less dollar-volume NVDA.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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