DIS and Delta Variant Lead News Today

July PPI came in much hotter than expected, but as expected Jobless claims kept falling.  Markets shrugged off this news to open flat.  Then after a fade the first hour, the bulls started a long, slow rally that lasted the rest of the day.  This gave us strong candles in all 3 major indices, including a Dragonfly Doji in the DAI (to a new all-time high close), a strong bullish candle in the SPY (to another all-time high close), and a strong bullish candle in the QQQ.  On the day, SPY gained 0.30%, DIA gained 0.08%, and QQQ gained 0.36%.  The VXX fell another 2% to 26.24 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory to 70.83.  10-year bond yields climbed to 1.361% and Oil (WTI) fell half a percent to $68.91/barrel.

After the close, DIS beat on both lines in its report.  Despite its theme parks remaining unprofitable, the company managed to handily top estimates, delivering $17.02 billion in revenue and $0.80/share earnings for the quarter.  One stand-out from the report was that the Disney+ streaming service added 1.5 million more subscribers than had been expected.

The delta variant is raising concerns in the logistics world.  Which may have major follow-through impacts on the retail and manufacturing sectors in the fall.  Chinese restrictions have caused the partial closure of the world’s third-largest port already.  The Port of Los Angeles is already prepping for another dramatic decline in container volume.  With container pricing up 220% already this year, the logjams that result from another set of port slowdown/shutdowns could have drastic impacts on shipping costs.

Early today the FDA authorized a vaccination booster shot for immunocompromised people. While the FDA said that fully-vaccinated healthy people are adequately protected, the debate continues on whether to expand booster shots or continue to apply the doses that would be required toward getting the unvaccinated population their first rounds of vaccine.  However, Thursday afternoon Dr. Fauci (NIH) told a press briefing that it is likely that everyone will need a booster shot at some point.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Taiwan (-1.38%) was an outlier, but Shenzhen (-0.69%) and Singapore (-0.54%) paced the losses on global logistics concerns.  However, India (+1.01%) and Australia (+0.54%) were among the few green exchanges in the region.  In Europe, markets are mixed but lean to the green side so far on Friday.  The FTSE (+0.33%), DAX (+0.43%), and CAC (+0.38%) are leading the continent higher at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open.  The DIA is implying a +0.13% open, the SPY implying a +0.04% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.02% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down a bit as the dollar is down so far today.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to July Imports and July Exports (both at 8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to DSEY and ERJ before the open.  There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

With no major news planned this morning and the twin fears of covid impacts and inflation-caused Fed tightening, the bears have the wind at their back this morning. However, the bulls have been impossible to deny regardless of news for months. It seems like a classic case of "climbing the wall of worry" in recent days. Gaps, fades, and long periods of tight-range sideways grind have been a spot-on description of market action this summer. However, trends remain bullish (if flattened in the QQQ). So, while caution is required, predicting trend change is not a strategy for long-term success.

Keep your losses small by managing stops and consistently take profits when you have them. Never chase price on an entry. If you missed a move, admit it and move on to the next trade. Above all, maintain your discipline to your trading rules. Stick with the trend until the trend is broken. As mentioned, reversal predictors don't tend to last long in the trading business. Focus on the process and managing what you can control. Discipline will see you through.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AAPL, MSFT, SOLO, MIME, ORCL, ASAN, PSA, CROX, TRGP, HUBS, EBON. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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