Markets opened flat on Tuesday.  DIA was the only one of the major index ETFs who’s open (+0.14%) was even worth noting.  After that open, DIA ground sideways for 15 minutes before selling off for three hours, bouncing modestly for an hour and then selling modestly into the close.  For its part, SPY traded sideways for 30 minutes, then followed DIA south, bouncing more strongly at 1 p.m. and then selling off modestly again at 2:45 p.m.  Meanwhile, QQQ chopped sideways for an hour, sold off more modestly than its peer index ETFs until 1 p.m., rallying almost back to flat by 2:45 p.m. and then drifting lower.  This action gave us black-bodied, indecisive candles in the SPY and QQQ (Spinning Top type).  For its part, DIS printed a big, black, Bearish Engulfing candle.  This happened on average volume in DIA as well as below-average volume in SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were red with Basic Materials -1.79%) and Healthcare (-1.59%) out in front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Technology (-0.03%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.28%) held up much better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 0.33%, DIA lost 0.82%, and QQQ lost 0.18%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 44.52 and T2122 dropped all the way down into the lower half of its mid-range to close at 40.64.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to 4.426% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat to close at $68.03 per barrel.  So, Tuesday gave us a morning selloff followed by a more modest bounce and then a drift lower the last hour of the day.  For the first time in five days, none of the major index ETFs printed a new all-time high.  With that said, we still look a little toppy with all three major ETFs well above their T-line (8ema).

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, which fell a tick to 2.9% (down from September’s 3.0% reading).

In Fed news, Richmond Fed President Barkin indicated he feels the FOMC is in a good position. Barkin said, “A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.”  He continued, “The Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.”  Later, Fed Governor Waller urged the private sector to embrace payment system innovations like stablecoins, saying “(the FedNow real-time payment system) can bolster private sector efforts to link financial institutions in a decentralized and diverse banking system.” In talking about “synthetic dollars,” Waller said, “These assets could have a lot of potential benefits and eliminate inefficiencies in the financial system.”  Even later, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he thinks the FOMC monetary policy is “In my judgment we are still at a modestly contractionary stance, but ultimately the economy will guide us, in terms of how far we are needing to go in cutting interest rates.”

After the close, CAE, CART, FIHL, FLUT, NATL, RKT, and SWKS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DOX and OXY missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, LNW and SPOT beat on revenue but missed on earnings. However, PLUS and NGL missed on both the top and bottom line.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the red side again.  Six of the 11 exchanges were in the red as South Korea (-2.64%) and Japan (-1.66%) led the way lower.  In Europe, we see an even weaker picture with just two of 14 bourses in the green at midday (although on much smaller moves than Asia).  The CAC (-0.16%), DAX (-0.06%), and FTSE (-0.14%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day ahead of CPI data.  The DIA implies a -0.30% open, the SPY is implying a -0.23% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.26% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down a bit to 4.416% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $68.49 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes October Core CPI and October CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), October Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Kashkari (8:30 a.m.) and Williams (9:30 a.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, and KMDA.  Then, after the close, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet.  We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, HBM and JHX reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, DOLE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background markets seem to be continuing Monday’s modest retreat.  All three of the major index ETFs opened the premarket lower and have printed small black candles since then. QQQ has the largest of the black bodies in the early session.  (Again, remember that this is before CPI data.)  However, all three also remain above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short, mid-term, and long-term trend remain bullish. In terms of over extension, the premarket action has brough SPY, DIA, and QQQ back within a normal distance above their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower half of its mid-range.  So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum.  (This small pullback is just what the doctor ordered for the health of a rally. With that said, we have to remember that every Bearish trend starts with a pullback.)  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, six of the 10 are in the red this morning.  By far the biggest mover, both in terms of price change and dollar-volume traded is TSLA (+1.86% on $1.0 billion traded) which is a percent greater move than the next ticker (either direction).  It is also almost four times the dollar-volume traded as NVDA (+0.25% on $261 million traded). This continued the massive change in these factors since the Trump win.  (You will have to decided for yourself if this signals an end to AI exuberance or is just a “Trump will pay Musk back” anomaly.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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