While the severe cold is slowing down most of the country, the bulls remain undeterred, with the futures pointing more index records at the open.  Although we have a short market week of trading, we have a week chalked full of earnings and economic reports for traders to digest.  Expect price volatility to remain high as a result.  Be careful chasing the morning record-setting gap with a fear of missing out.  Please make sure we see follow-through buying and not the dreaded pop and drop that we can sometimes experience at market highs.  Stay focused and flexible.

Overnight Asian markets rallied with lead by the HIS up nearly 2% on the day.  However, European markets are trading nearly flat and have fluctuated throughout the morning, seemly concerned about the extending risk rally.  The U.S. Futures don’t share that concern with the bulls charging forward, likely to set new records in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ at the open.  Fasten your seatbelts as the buying frenzy continues.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

As we begin a short market week, we have about 80 companies stepping up to report quarterly results.  Notable reports include AAP, A, ALX, ACC, AIG, ANDE, AN, CAR, BYD, CLR, DENN, DVN, ECL, ES, EXAS, EXPD, GEO, INVH, LZB, LPX, OXY, PLTR, RNG, TRU, VNO, YNDX & ZTS.

News & Technicals’

As ugly cold snap grips, the country’s oil hits pandemic highs, with rolling blackouts due to the massive demand for power.  However, the cold has not dampened the spirit of the bulls as they pushed sharply higher overnight.  The 30-year Treasury yield is holding above 2%, a level not seen in nearly a year.  Not satisfied with the Trump acquittal, Speaker Pelosi has announced an independent 9/11-style commission on the Capitol riot.  According to reports, Australia will support the proposed media law on Facebook and Google.  The new law would require the media giants to pay for the news created by other agencies.  Google has threatened to turn off its search app in the country should it pass.  Should other countries join in with this tactic, it would have far-reaching impacts on social media. 

Though the market experienced a little price weakness last week, the futures are fired up this morning.  If current prices hold until the open, the DIA, SPY, and QQQ will set new record highs a the open, with a sharp gap-up move.   Trends are decidedly bullish, but I suspect the T2122 indicator will suggest a very extended condition at the open.  Before chasing in with a fear of missing out, let’s make sure we see follow-through buying rather than getting caught in a classic pop a drop price pattern.  We have a busy week of earnings and economic calendar news, so continue to expect wild price volatility while trying to price in the next round of government stimulus.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Although most of the country will be dealing with cold conditions over this 3-day weekend, I would not rule out the possibility of light and choppy day as traders get way early to extend their time off.  Even though indexes seemed to struggle to hold the bullish momentum, there was little to no fear that accompanied yesterday’s profit-taking.  As we slide into the uncertainty of a long weekend, it would not be odd to see additional profit-taking with traders reducing risk.  As long as index trends and support levels hold banking, some recent gains may be a wise move.

Asian markets we mostly closed to as they celebrate their new year.  European markets trade mixed but mostly flat this morning as they react to the 9.9% economic slump reported in the U.K.  U.S. futures currently suggest a slightly lower open with light earnings and economic calendars.  Plan your risk carefully as we head into the weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we have just about 40 companies expected to reports quarterly results.  Notable reports include D, ENB, FTS, MCO, NWL, & WPC.

News & Technicals’

Although there was little increase in fear, the indexes seemed to struggle to hold on to the bullish momentum.  Perhaps it was a light recognition that the Jobless claims were higher than expected but, it may have been nothing more than the 3-day weekend and traders heading out early.  The White House secures a deal for more than 200 million more Covid vaccine doses as the public finds it difficult to access the shot.  The United Kingdom reported that its economy contracted by 9.9% in 2020, the worst performance since the Great Frost of 1709.  Yesterday the U.S. reported a deficit expectation of more than 2 Trillion dollars for 2121, not including the 1.9 Trillion stimulus or the college loan forgiveness moving through Congress.  That said, Speaker Pelosi intends to include the 15 dollars per hour Federal minimum wage mandate in the stimulus package.

We have a light day on the earnings calendar with only a Consumer Sentiment report for traders to react to at 10 AM Eastern.  With a 3-day weekend ahead, price action could become relatively light and choppy as traders get away early to enjoy the extra time off.  Recently, something of a rare event in the current market is seeing the U.S. futures pointing to a flat to slightly lower open this morning.  Perhaps a little profit-taking is possible heading into the weekend?  Plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A nasty intraday whipsaw likely quickened the pulse of traders and investors yesterday, but by the end of the day, the buying frenzy reengaged to squeak out a new Dow record high.  With a busy day of earnings, a Jobless report before the bell amidst a backdrop of Congressional drama, we should plan for price volatility to continue.  Stay with the trend but be willing to take profits quickly as the indexes stretch out in exuberance for the next round of stimulus.

Overnight Asian markets closed in the green with modest gains heading into the Chinese new year shutdown.  Across the pond, markets trade cautiously bullish this morning, sporting modest gains.  U.S. Futures point to a bullish open but have moderated slightly from the early morning highs.  Plan your risk carefully as we head toward a 3-day weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Today we have our busiest day of earnings data for traders to digest this week, with just over 120 companies stepping up to report.  Notable reports include TWOU, AEM, AB, MT, ARES, AZN, ACB, BJRI, BWA, BAM, CC, NET, DDOG, DBA, DLR, DUK, EXPE, FRT, FLO, GRNC, GDDY, HUBS, HII, ILMN, K, KIM, KHC, MAC, TAP, NNN, PEP, POOL, QSR, SSTK, TU, THS, TSN, VRSN, DIS, AUT, & YETI.

News and Technicals’

Once again, the bulls won the day after a nasty intraday whipsaw leaving uncertain candle patterns behind on the index charts, such as the hanging man pattern on the DIA.  However, undaunted the premarket futures point possible record highs as the indexes stretch out with the hope of more stimulus on the way.  Treasury yields fell yesterday after Jerome Powell said the U.S. is a long way from where it needs to be in terms of employment as he painted a gloomy picture of the economy.  That said, the overall market seems to very little concerned about the jobs market or the overall economy as long as the government continues to print debt.  It may be great for the short-term as exuberance pushes us higher, and traders need to stay with the trend capitalizing on the buying frenzy.  Still, traders need to remain on guard for the danger this is likely to create in the long-term.

Trends remain bulls, and index prices are solidly above price support levels. Still, the wild whipsaw experienced yesterday likely quickened traders’ pulse, raising questions about the level of danger that exists.  Today we face more D.C. drama with a boatload of earnings data and Jobless numbers to keep the tensions high and the prices volatile.  The T2122 indicator continues to warn of a short-term overbought condition, so stay focused and willing to take profits quickly should the bears decide to wake up. 

Trade Wisley,

Doug

With the bulls taking a little hiatus yesterday, we technically broke the six-day rally. Still, with the bears seemingly back in hibernation, the indexes merely drifted sideways the majority of the day.  Both Congressional bodies busy expect some political news volatility as they move forward in the Trump trial and the 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus bill passage.  Facing another big day of earnings data and the CPI numbers before the bell futures markets point to another bullish open.  As we continue to extend the indexes, remember to take some profits.

Asian markets produced another bullish close overnight with modest gain across the board.  However, European markets trade cautiously this morning with flat and mixed results.  U.S. futures with the aroma of freshly printed stimulus money just about the corner, the bulls remain large and in charge. Still, don’t rule out the possibility of some wild price volatility as we digest all the earnings and economic news.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have just short of 100 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include GM, IRBT, ELY, NLY, ARCC, BHF, BG, CDW, CINF, CME, KO, CXW, EFX, EQIX, EQR, EXEL, HP, IFF, IPG, IQV, KGC, MGM, ORLY, PAYC, PAG, SAVE, STAG, TEVA, TM, UBER, UAA, WU, WH, XPO, ZG, & ZMGA.

News & Technicals’

We broke a six-day rally yesterday with the bulls needing a little hiatus and, the bears showed no teeth as the index drifted mostly sideways.  That said, stock pickers enjoyed nice rallies in more than enough stocks to make for a great trading day.  With Senate occupied by the Trump trail and the House moving forward with the 1.9 Trillion dollar stimulus plan, it may be wise to keep an eye on the political news as it could create some price volatility.  As President Biden pushes for herd immunity, anti-vaccine protesters could derail or delay efforts to combat the pandemic.  The J&J CEO is now suggesting that people may need annual Covid vaccine short for several years.  If true, we have a long way to go before returning to normal in light of virus new variants.  Ugg!

Technically speaking, index trends remain bullish, albeit a little stretched in the short-term, but with another round of stimulus checks around the corner, it could stay that way.  I know there is a lot of talk in the market about the possibility of a significant correction that could begin at any time.  Though that may be correct, as traders, the best we can do is stay with and benefit from the wild enthusiasm as long as it lasts.  However, we should avoid overtrading, chasing already extended stocks, and avoid the greed that often gets in the way of making profits.  Remember, consistently profitable traders must get comfortable with taking profits consistently. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

After a blistering six-day winning streak that lifted the Dow more than 1500 points, futures markets suggest a modest rest at the open today.  Normally we would expect a pullback or, at a minimum, some consolidation after such a robust move.  However, with the market hopeful of another 1.9 trillion-dollar deficit spend, we can’t rule out the possibility that indexes could continue to inflate.  Today begins the Trump impeachment trial, and with a big day of earnings and the Job opening report, we have plenty to inspire substantial price action.  Plan your risk carefully.

Overnight Asian markets closed green across the board with modest gains.  European markets trade with modest declines this morning. U.S. Futures suggest a modestly lower open as the bulls take a little breather after the volatile stampede higher that set record highs in four indexes. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On Tuesday’s earnings calendar, we have 90 companies stepping up to report.  Notable reports include TWTR, CGC, AKAM, CNC, CSCO, CEIX, COTY, DD, ENOH, FISV, FOXA, IT, GLUU, GT, HAIN, HBI, HMC, INCY, J, LYFT, MAT, NRZ, PAA, REYN, SPGI, THC, TRVG, WELL, & YELP.

News & Technicals’

It was a big day for the bulls yesterday, pushing all four indexes to new record highs.  After a six-day winning streak that saw the Dow rally more than 1500 points has the T2122 4-week new high/new low ratio suggesting a short-term overbought condition.  However, with the Democrats intending to pass the 1.9 trillion stimulus package as soon as possible, the market could undoubtedly inflate higher.  According to reports, this will not be a bipartisan effort as the President had suggested.  They also plan to press ahead on a $15 an hour minimum wage despite deficit concerns, have unveiled a one-year plan to send up to $3,600 per child to all households, and proposed a plan to forgive up to $50,000 in student debt.  Today also begins the impeachment trial of former President Trump, so we have a lot of potential political news to move the market this week.

As I write this report, the U.S. futures point to a modest pullback at the open after posting a robust six-day rally as the fear of the Reddit retail frenzy faded.   Index trends are certainly bullish but don’t rule out the possibility of a little rest as we wait for the next stimulus deal.  With so many stocks in an extended condition, it’s a little hard to be a buyer because of the additional risk to a logical stop-loss.  Remember to take some profits and avoid overtrading.  Today we have the Job openings report and a big round of earnings to us on our toes.  Plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Last week saw a tremendous bullish recovery, and the bears seemed to go back into hibernation.  Hopes remain high for another 1.9 Trillion in stimulus, but I’m beginning to wonder if we’ve already priced it into the market.  That said, stay with the trend but stay on your toes in case a profit-taking wave begins.  Avoid overtrading and chasing already extended stocks, and remember we can’t be consistently profitable traders unless we consistently take some profits. 

Asian markets were green across the board overnight, led by the NIKKEI up more than 2%.  European markets are also pushing higher this morning with modest gains across the board.  U.S. Futures markets point to a bullish open ahead of earnings, a busy week of political news, and a light economic calendar.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 64 companies scheduled to report quarterly results.  Notable reports include ACM, CHGG, ENR, RE, JKHY, KKR, LEG, L, NUAN, SPG, & TTWO.

News & Technicals’

We had another day of record highs on Friday, and with a quick look at the futures market, the bulls are ready to continue extending the indexes.  Congress has a busy week attempting to move forward on the 1.9 Trillion dollar stimulus plan while running a Trump impeachment trial in the Senate.  Stay on your toes over the next couple of weeks because the political news could create some price volatility.  The rumor that Apple was close to a deal with Hyundai, Kia, to develop the Apple car is apparently not valid after the automaker announced they are not in talks.  Hyundai, Kia shares are lower this morning as a result.  Janet Yellen says the U.S. could return to full employment by next year if Congress passes the proposed trillion stimulus plan. Of course, there was no mention of how the U.S. plans to deal with the massive debt.

On the technical front, the bulls have reengaged the bullish trend, and it appears the bears have gone back into hibernation.  I suspect the high hopes of additional stimulus will continue to supply market levity, but I am concerned that it may soon be fully priced into the market.  The T2122 indicator continues to flash a short-term overbought condition, so traders will have to stay focused on the possibility that a profit-taking wave could begin anytime.  However, stay with the bullish trend, but be careful not to overtrade or chase already extended stocks.  As of February 5^th, the SP-500 P/E Ratio was 79% above its historical average.  How much longer this bull run can extend is anyone’s guess but be aware we could have some irrational exuberance at work here.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

New records across the board in the index ETF’s as the bull regain control of the trend.  In an all-night session that included a blizzard of amendments, the Senate passed a budget resolution necessary to move forward with a $1.9 Trillion stimulus package.  That has futures popping to new highs this morning as we wait for the Employment Situation numbers before the bell.  The bulls are back in control of the trends, having cleared resistance levels, but after such a strong rally, it may be wise to take some profits heading into the weekend.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight, and European markets trade with modest gains this morning.  As global stocks near record highs, the U.S. futures point to a bullish open ahead of the monthly Employment Situation report.  How the market opens will depend on that report’s results, so traders should plan for a dose of price volatility heading into the open.  Have a wonderful weekend, everyone!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We get a little break today with about 40 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include CAH, EL, ITW, JOUT, LIN, REGN, SNY, & SPB.

News & Technicals’

The bulls kept up the pressure yesterday, lifting the SPY, QQQ, and IWM to new record highs, with the DIA squeaking out a new high in a last-minute buying surge.  After an all-night session, the Senate approved a budget resolution as with a slew of resolutions necessary to clear the path as Democrats rush to pass the hoped-for 1.9 Trillion Covid relief bill.  Johnson & Johnson is attempting to move forward with its Covid vaccine asking the FED for emergency authorization.  After Robinhood removed trading restrictions on GameStop and all other stocks, GME shares climbed 15% in the premarket.  Perhaps the short-selling frenzy still has legs after all. 

Yesterday’s rally cleared the index charts’ price resistance levels, and the VIX again saw a calming as the bulls regained control of the trend.  Today before the bell, we will get the latest reading on the Employment Situation. Still, the futures point to a bullish open as Senate moves forward with a procedural vote as they hurry to pass the next stimulus bill.  It would seem to hope more deficit spending means jobs data no longer matters to this market.  That said, it would be wise to avoid overtrading and take some profits heading into the weekend with the T2122 indicator hinting at a short-term overbought condition.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

The bears made some halfhearted attempts in yesterday’s early session, but the bulls won the day with modest gains still seemingly challenged by overhead price resistance.  With a big day of earnings data to digest and jobless numbers on the way, U.S. futures point to mixed and flat open at the time of writing this report.  Traders will need to remain nimble as we head into the Friday Employment Situation number, although government deficit spending appears more critical to the market nowadays.

Asian markets closed in the red across the board even as Hyundai shares rose with an Apple Car deal drawing closer.  European markets trade mixed and cautiously as the Bank of England stands frim on interest rates.  As morning earing roll out, the U.S futures trade mixed and mostly flat but prepare for price volatility as traders and investors digest all the data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Today is our busiest day on the earnings calendar this week, with nearly 120 companies fessing up to results.  Notable reports include PTON, ABB, ATVI, APD, ALL, ABC, AINV, BLL, BDX, BMY, BEP, CG, CI, CLX, COR, CMI, DECK, DB, F, FTNT, GILD, GPRO, MRK, MCHP, MSGN, NWSA, NOLK, OIH, PENN, PM, PINS, POST, DGX, RL, SKK, SNAP, SNA, SU, TMUS, TPR, TDC, U, XYL, YUM & ZEN.

New & Technicals’

Although we had a modest day of price action, the bulls remain in control while still challenged by overhead price resistance levels.  With a big day of earnings and economic news, traders will have to say on their toes, ready for just about anything.  Apple and Hyundai-Kia said they are moving toward a deal to begin the development of the Apple Car.  American Airlines is once again warning that 13,000 employees could be furloughed next month without additional federal aid.  Senator Amy Klobuchar has unveiled a sweeping antitrust reform bill that could draw more risk and scrutiny to large tech firms if enacted.  Google and Facebook already face federal and state lawsuits, with enforcers eyeing anticompetitive conduct accusations against Amazon and Apple as well.

The bulls-maintained control yesterday amidst some halfhearted attempts by the bears during the morning session.  Overall the indexes are still challenged by overhead price resistance, and with a big day of data coming our way its anyone’s guess which side gains the upper hand, bull or bears.  That said, the sharp decline in the VIX-X the last few days is a welcome sight even though it’s still remarkable to see markets poised to make new highs with the VIX over 20 handles.  Stay focused and flexible with jobs data in focus for the rest of the week.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Google and Amazon earnings beat expectations, and this morning the QQQ is poised to reach out to new record highs.  However, the DIA and SPY lag slightly behind, challenged with overhead price resistance.  Facing a big round of earnings and jobs data in focus the rest of the week, expect price action to remain volatile.  Should any jobs data disappoint, it would be unwise to rule out another attack from the bears.

Overnight Asian markets closed mixed but modestly bullish.  European indexes show mixed but modest gains this morning as the focus remains on earnings results.  U.S. futures indicate a mixed open as traders react to morning earnings reports and wait on the ADP private jobs report.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have nearly 90 companies reporting today.  Notable reports include ABBV, AFL, ALGN, ALGT, AFG, APO, AVB, AVY, BIIB, BSX, BIP, CTSH, ELF, EBAY, GSK, GRUB, HUM, IAC, MET, MUSA, NTGR, NVO, PYPL, QCOM, RGLD, SMG, SPOT, VVV, GWW, & YUMC.

News & Technicals’

Markets surged yesterday, with the retail short squeeze frenzy calming as GME fell over 60% on the day.  Google surprised the market with better than expected earnings, and Amazon reported its first 100 Billion dollar quarter benefiting from the pandemic restricted holiday shoppers.  However, in a surprise move, Jeff Bezos is stepping down as the company CEO in the 3^rd quarter of this year to focus his attention on new products.  A bit of a big tech battle has emerged between Microsoft and Google.  Australia proposed a new law that would force the tech giant to pay news publishers for the right to link to their content.  As a result, Google threatened to remove assess to its search engine if the proposal became law.

Interestingly, Microsoft said it would never threaten to leave Australia.  I suspect we will hear much more on this subject in the coming months as Google comes under scrutiny for antitrust concerns.  Perhaps the next move for Google is stepping up to the Double Dog Dare, LOL.

Yesterday’s substantial rally pushed many stocks up to test resistance levels and elevated the T2122 indicator back into a short-term overbought condition.  The test for the bulls now is to prove they have the wherewithal to push through.  The QQQ is poised to set new record highs today, with the DIA and SPY still battling price resistance levels.  With a slew of earnings reports and jobs data in focus for the remainder of the week, expect the price to remain quite volatile.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

The bulls showed up for work yesterday defending the Friday low, and this morning, ahead of a big round of market-moving earnings reports, they are trying to follow through with another bullish open.  Please pay close attention as we approach overhead resistance and expect wild price action to continue with the VIX remaining elevated above a 30 handle.  Wednesday’s open will depend heavily on how AMZN & GOOGL perform reporting after today’s close, so carefully consider your risk.  Anything is possible!

Asian markets rebounded strongly overnight, with the HSI up 1.23%.  A positive global market sentiment reading also has European markets trading in the green across the board this morning.  Ahead of a big day of potential market-moving earnings reports, the U.S. Futures point to another bullish open to test overhead price resistance levels. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have another big day of potential market-moving reports with more than 50 companies stepping up with results.  Notable reports include BABA, GOOGL, AMZN, EA, AMCR, AMGN, ATHM, BP, CMG, CB, COP, TCS, ETN, EMR, COM, RACE, FEYE, BEN, GAIN, GL, HOG, HCA, MHO, MPC, MTCH, MCK, MPLX, PFE, PBI, POWI, SIRI, SYY, & UPS.

News & Technicals’

The bulls did a good job defending last Friday’s low but spent a considerable amount of time consolidating in choppy ranges on intraday charts.  Perhaps the major snowstorm on the east coast affected the overall volume.  We still have price resistance levels above to deal will, and with GOOGL & AMZN reporting after the bell today, anything is possible Wednesday morning.  Currently, futures point to a nice bullish open trying to follow through ahead of a big round of morning earnings reports.  GameStop shares fall another 30%, losing more than half of their value in just two days as the Reddit short squeeze begins to fizzle.  However, Robinhood had to raise another $2.4 billion to cover the retail trading frenzy.  What comes next is anyone’s guess, but with the VIX still above a 30 handle, traders will have to remain focused and flexible as the wild ride in price action continues.

It will be interesting to see how the indexes will deal with the price resistance above as market-moving earings roll out.  With the Tech Giants, GOOGL, and AMZN reporting after the bell, the Wednesday open carries the risk of a substantial gap at the open.  The question to be answered is which way, up or down?  Consider your risk carefully as we head into today close.  Keep in mind beginning Job’s data will be in focus the rest of the week, beginning with the ADP on Wednesday, Jobless Claims Thursday, and the Employment Situation number Friday morning. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug