U.S. stock futures indicate a significant gap up on Monday as Wall Street attempts to recover from last week’s steep losses. According to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, the rally isn’t driven by any specific news since Friday’s close but rather by modest dip buying, largely due to oversold conditions and anticipation of monetary support. Investors are also looking ahead to the release of August’s consumer and producer price reports, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday mornings, respectively.

European stocks saw an uptick on Monday, managing to rise despite the negative sentiment from Wall Street and Asia-Pacific markets. Most sectors and all major bourses were trading positively. Technology stocks led the gains with a 1.32% increase, closely followed by travel and leisure stocks, which were up by 1.30%. However, Burberry shares fell by 5.19%, dragging down the luxury sector due to declining fortunes in that market segment.

Asia-Pacific markets experienced a downturn on Monday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) leading the losses. The HSI dropped by 1.77% in the final hour of trading, driven by China’s inflation rate, which grew by only 0.6% year-on-year, falling short of the 0.7% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Mainland China’s CSI 300 also saw a decline, falling 1.19% to 3,192.95, marking a seven-month low. Additionally, Japan’s second-quarter GDP growth was reported at 2.9% on an annualized basis, below the anticipated 3.2%.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Monday have no reports before the bell but after the bell include CVGW, AVO, ORCL, & RBRK.

News & Technicals’

The unwinding of the yen carry trade is anticipated to persist in September, posing a risk of another substantial sell-off, according to Kathy Lien, managing director of forex strategy at BK Asset Management. Yen traders are expected to closely monitor equity prices and take cues from them, as September is typically a volatile month for stocks. Lien suggests that the unwind could be more aggressive, like what was observed in August, if there is a significant sell-off in stocks. She also notes that the yen remains significantly undervalued, which could impact valuations over the next one to two years.

Huawei has garnered significant attention with over 2.7 million pre-orders for its new tri-fold smartphone, the Mate XT, as revealed on its website on Monday. The Chinese tech giant began accepting pre-orders at midday on Saturday, strategically positioning the launch more than two days ahead of Apple’s anticipated iPhone 16 release, scheduled for early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This early interest highlights the competitive landscape in the smartphone market, with Huawei aiming to capture consumer interest before Apple’s latest offering hits the shelves.

The European Union needs radical reforms through a new industrial strategy to maintain its competitiveness, enhance social equality, and achieve climate targets, according to a highly anticipated report by economist and politician Mario Draghi. The report outlines proposals that would necessitate an additional annual investment of 750 billion to 800 billion euros, as estimated by the European Commission. It also highlights other critical areas, such as supply chain security and defense spending, underscoring the comprehensive approach required to address these multifaceted challenges.

Norfolk Southern’s board is investigating allegations that CEO Alan Shaw engaged in an inappropriate workplace relationship, according to sources familiar with the situation. Shaw, who has been CEO since 2022, has already navigated significant challenges, including a toxic rail derailment and a contentious proxy fight. The company has enlisted outside legal advisors to assist with the probe, which is still in its early stages and may not reveal any misconduct.

With a big overnight buy the dip gap up open as the market attempts to recover watch for the potential of whipsaws after the open.  Keeping in mind that we face a CPI reading on Wednesday and a PPI report on Thursday, it is also possible we could chop sideways with considerable volatility as we wait.  That said be very careful with the fear of missing out and chasing this morning big gap remembering that SPY, QQQ, and IWM are under their 50-day averages.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

U.S. stock futures declined on Wednesday following a rough start to September, with the S&P 500 experiencing its worst day since early August. The downturn on Wall Street was exacerbated by pressure on chip stocks, driven by two reports indicating a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing production. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. trade deficit, job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) survey, and factory orders, to gauge the health of the economy.

European stocks faced a significant downturn in morning trading on Wednesday, mirroring the losses seen on Wall Street and in Asia-Pacific markets. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell by 0.93% as of 11:08 a.m. in London, with all sectors experiencing declines. Technology stocks were hit the hardest, dropping by 2.68%, while travel stocks also saw a notable decrease of 1.1%.

The Nikkei experienced its worst day since the early August sell-off, with significant declines in Asian markets led by the Taiex. The tech sector was particularly hard hit, as major chip manufacturers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, both key suppliers to Nvidia, saw their shares plummet by 3.45% and 8.02%, respectively. Despite the widespread downturn, mainland Chinese and Hong Kong indexes managed to limit their losses, faring better than other markets in the region.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Wednesday before the bell include DKS, DLTR, CRMT, CIEN, CNM, HRL, REVG, & CURV. After the bell include AVAV, AI, CASY, CHPT, CPRT, BASE, CRDO, DSGX, HPE, PHR, CXM, VRNT, & YEXT.

News & Technicals’

Global semiconductor and related stocks experienced a significant decline on Wednesday, triggered by a sharp drop in Nvidia’s share price in the U.S. the previous night. On Tuesday, Nvidia saw an unprecedented $279 billion wiped off its market value, marking the largest one-day market capitalization loss for a U.S. stock in history. The downward trend continued in post-market trading, with Nvidia shares falling an additional 2% following reports from Bloomberg that the company had received a subpoena from the Department of Justice as part of an antitrust investigation.

DraftKings and White Hat Gaming were fined a combined $22,500 by the state of Connecticut for operating an online slot machine game, Deal or No Deal Banker’s Bonanza, which failed to pay out any winnings on over 20,600 spins during a week in August 2023. The game was advertised to return nearly 95 cents for every dollar wagered. However, from August 15 to August 21, 2023, 522 players in Connecticut wagered almost $24,000 on the game across 20,659 spins without receiving any payouts, as reported by Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection.

SpaceX’s satellite internet service, Starlink, announced it will comply with court orders to block the social network X in Brazil. Both companies are owned by Elon Musk. Brazil’s supreme court mandated the suspension of X due to non-compliance with federal regulations on content moderation and the appointment of a legal representative in the country. Musk has been vocally critical of Brazil’s administration for months, even threatening “reciprocal seizure of government assets” in response to the court’s actions against his businesses.

Management at German automotive giant Volkswagen is preparing for a contentious townhall meeting with workers on Wednesday, where senior business leaders will outline potential job cuts. On Monday, Volkswagen warned that it could no longer rule out the possibility of closing plants in Germany. This announcement has drawn sharp criticism from Volkswagen’s work council and the major German industrial union IG Metall, both of which have vowed to oppose the proposed cuts.

Although we had a rough start to September keep in mind one day does not make a trend.  The follow-though of the price action will be critical today.  If the bears continue to gain ground, we fear could spike price adding to the volatility.  However, if the bulls can defend support levels and 50 day moving average levels it will ease the minds of traders.  Keep in mind corporate buybacks could ride to the rescue of the market at least for the short term. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday as traders prepare for a potentially challenging month following a strong yet volatile August. Investors are eagerly awaiting the first major economic report of the month, which will be released on Friday when the U.S. government publishes the August jobs report. Additionally, Wall Street faces seasonal headwinds, as September has historically been the worst month for the S&P 500 over the past decade.

European stocks saw a slight decline on Tuesday, extending a tepid start to September trading. According to data from the British Retail Consortium, total sales in August increased by 1% year-on-year. This growth was driven primarily by food sales, which rose by 2.9% annually over the three months leading up to August. In contrast, non-food sales experienced a 1.7% decline.

Asia-Pacific markets experienced a downturn on Tuesday, with most indices showing declines. Notably, South Korea’s headline inflation for August eased to 2% from 2.6%, marking its lowest year-on-year level since March 2021. Meanwhile, Mainland China’s CSI 300 index hover near a seven-month low, according to futures data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday before the bell include MOMO. After the bell include GTLB, PD, & ZS.

News & Technicals’

German carmaker Volkswagen issued a warning that it may no longer be able to avoid plant closures in the country, citing the need for significant cost-cutting measures to “future-proof” the company. Volkswagen announced its decision to terminate its employment protection agreement, a job security program in place since 1994, to facilitate “urgently needed structural adjustments.” VW brand CEO Thomas Schäfer emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating that it is “extremely tense and cannot be resolved through simple cost-cutting measures.”

Russia has signaled potential changes to its official nuclear weapons policy in response to ongoing incursions by Ukraine into the Kursk border region. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced on Sunday that Russia is revising its nuclear doctrine, which outlines the conditions under which nuclear weapons may be deployed. This shift is attributed to what Russia perceives as the West’s escalating involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. The adjustments to the nuclear doctrine reflect the heightened tensions and the evolving dynamics of the war.

Brazil’s telecommunications regulator, Anatel, has threatened sanctions against Elon Musk’s satellite internet firm, Starlink, amid escalating tensions over Brazil’s decision to block Musk’s social media company, X. Artur Coimbra, a commissioner at Anatel, stated that Starlink is the only company refusing to comply with the court order to block X. This public confrontation highlights the growing friction between Brazil and Musk, as regulatory authorities push for adherence to legal decisions while Musk’s companies resist compliance.

Huawei is set to hold a product launch event on September 10 at 2:30 p.m. Beijing time, just hours after Apple’s iPhone 16 unveiling. While the specifics of Huawei’s new product remain unclear, Richard Yu, the company’s consumer and automotive technology executive, has described it as an “epoch-making product.” Huawei’s resurgence in the Chinese market has posed a significant challenge to Apple, which lost its position among the top five smartphone vendors in China during the second quarter.

Although the current bullishness appears unstoppable keep in mind that September is a potentially challenging month historically.  Plan on corporate buybacks to dwindle my mid-month with about 50% of companies slipping into their blackout period according to Goldman.  Until then continue to ride the bullish wave but consider raising stops and watch carefully for a pullback in this extended condition.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stock futures rose on Thursday as investors aimed to rebound from the previous session’s declines the a GDP in focus. Wall Street seemed to shrug off Nvidia’s post-earnings dip, with attention shifting to upcoming economic reports, including GDP, International Trade, and Jobless Claims data, set to be released before the market opens. Additionally, the market is expected to find direction from earnings reports, particularly those with a retail focus, throughout the day.

European markets traded higher on Thursday as investors focused on economic data from the region. While oil and gas stocks saw a slight pullback, the tech sector experienced a notable rise of 1.87%. Germany’s preliminary consumer price index for August was reported at 2.2%, and economic sentiment improved in both the euro area and the European Union.

Asia-Pacific markets experienced a downturn on Thursday, primarily driven by declines in tech stocks following Nvidia’s second-quarter results. South Korean and Taiwanese indexes were notably impacted, with South Korean chip giant SK Hynix plummeting 5.35% and Samsung Electronics dropping over 3%. These significant losses in tech stocks led to the Kospi falling by 1.02%, closing at 2,662.28, marking the steepest decline in the region.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday before the bell include FLWS, SEO, BBY, BIRK, BF.B, BURL, DG, GMS, MBUU, MCFT, OLLI, PLAB, RY, & TITN. After the bell include ADSK, DELL, DOMO, ESTC, GAP, HCP, LULU, MRVL, & MDB.

News & Technicals’

Nvidia shares declined in U.S. premarket trading on Thursday, even though the company’s fiscal second-quarter results surpassed estimates. The high expectations for the chipmaker meant that merely beating estimates wasn’t enough to boost the stock significantly. Analysts noted that Nvidia would have needed to exceed all expectations by a substantial margin to see a positive reaction in its stock price. This pullback follows an impressive rally, with Nvidia’s shares having surged over 150% this year. The recent dip highlights the challenges of maintaining momentum after such a significant rise.

Salesforce reported strong fiscal second-quarter results, surpassing estimates and prompting the company to raise its full-year profit outlook. In addition to the positive financial news, Salesforce announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Amy Weaver, will be stepping down. Weaver will remain with the company until a successor is appointed and will continue to serve as an advisor. This transition comes amidst a period of robust performance for Salesforce, highlighting both its financial strength and commitment to smooth leadership transitions.

CrowdStrike reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results but lowered its full-year guidance due to incentives offered in a customer commitment package following a widespread outage on July 19. The cybersecurity software company issued an apology to its customers and partners for the disruption. However, it now faces class action lawsuits and a legal threat from Delta Air Lines. This situation underscores the challenges CrowdStrike is navigating despite its robust performance.

Shares of Super Micro plummeted 19% on Wednesday following the company’s announcement that it would not file its annual report for the fiscal year on time. This decline was further exacerbated by Hindenburg Research’s disclosure of a short position in the company, accompanied by allegations of “fresh evidence of accounting manipulation.” However, analysts at JPMorgan have expressed skepticism about Hindenburg’s claims, describing the report as “largely void of details around alleged wrongdoings from the company.” This situation has created significant uncertainty and volatility for Super Micro’s stock.

Traders should brace for volatility this morning as the market opens higher, influenced by the recent Nvidia report and GDP in focus. The current gap up continues to reflect an overbought condition, so it’s crucial to tighten stops to safeguard gains and be prepared for potential whipsaws. Looking ahead, it’s important to keep in mind that Friday will bring the Fed’s preferred Core PCE inflation report, which could further impact price volatility.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

S&P 500 futures edged slightly higher on Wednesday with investors eagerly awaiting Nvidia’s quarterly earnings announcement. Wall Street is particularly focused on Nvidia to assess the ongoing viability of the tech and AI sectors. The semiconductor giant’s performance is seen as a key indicator for the broader market trends in these industries. Nvidia is scheduled to release its earnings report after the market closes, making it a pivotal moment for investors tracking the tech and AI trade.

European markets saw an uptick on Wednesday as investors turned their attention to new earnings reports and economic data. While mining stocks dipped by 0.87%, the chemicals sector experienced a gain of 1.02%, and insurance stocks increased by 1.01%. Additionally, data from the French statistics office indicated a slight improvement in household confidence regarding the country’s economic outlook in August.

Asia-Pacific markets experienced a mixed performance recently, with China’s CSI 300 index reaching its lowest point in nearly seven months. In Australia, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, slightly surpassing the 3.4% forecasted by economists polled by Reuters, but showing a decrease from the 3.8% recorded in June. The minutes from the latest meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) revealed that the central bank had contemplated raising interest rates as part of its efforts to control inflation.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Wednesday before the bell include ANF, BMO, BBWI, CHWY, DCI, FL, SJM, KSS, LI, & PDCO. After the bell include NVDA, CRM, AFRM, COO, CRWD, FIVE, GEF, HPQ, NTAP, NTNX, OKTA, VEEV, & VSCO.

News & Technicals’

China’s state media has sharply criticized Canada for its decision to impose over 100% import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, using more forceful language than the official government response. The editor of the Global Times, a Beijing government mouthpiece, accused Canada of “shooting itself in the foot” by adopting U.S. protectionist policies. In contrast, Canada defended the tariffs, stating that they are intended to “level the playing field for Canadian workers” and support domestic producers of electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum in both domestic and international markets.

Cryptocurrencies continued their downward trend from Tuesday, influenced by lower Asia futures, which led to significant liquidations on the Bybit exchange. Data from CoinGlass revealed that the futures market experienced $93.52 million in long ether liquidations and $85.93 million in bitcoin liquidations. This wave of liquidations underscores the volatility in the cryptocurrency market and the impact of broader market trends on digital assets.

Lego reported a 13% increase in revenue for the first half of the year, reaching 31 billion Danish krone (approximately $4.65 billion). The company attributed this growth to strong performance across its product lines, particularly Lego Icons and Lego Creator, as well as its collaboration with Epic Games’ Fortnite. Despite a slowdown in consumer spending on big-ticket items in China, Lego remains optimistic about the long-term potential in the region. This positive outlook reflects Lego’s strategic focus on innovation and partnerships to drive sustained growth.

Nordstrom exceeded Wall Street’s earnings expectations, thanks to its successful cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements. However, despite this strong performance, the company provided cautious guidance for the full year, citing a decline in demand for luxury goods. To drive growth, Nordstrom has increasingly relied on its off-price division, Nordstrom Rack. This strategy highlights the company’s adaptability in navigating a challenging retail environment while seeking to maintain profitability.

There is palpable anticipation in today’s market condition with traders eagerly awaiting Nvidia and what it might mean for the overall market.  However, let’s not forget the big market moving economic reports coming Thursday and Friday before the bell so be careful not to caught up in hype with a fear of missing out.  Choppy price action could exist most of today as we wait but I would plan for considerable price volatility after the Nvidia earnings straight though to the Core PCE figures Friday morning. Plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

On Monday, the Dow diverged from the broader market, achieving both intraday and closing record highs. This movement contrasted with a decline in tech stocks and gains in less favored segments like energy, suggesting a potential shift in investor focus away from one of the market’s key drivers over the past year. Investors are particularly keen to see the upcoming earnings report from Nvidia, a major beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom, scheduled for Wednesday. Additionally, the market is digesting the latest Case-Shiller House Price Index and Consumer Confidence report results released this morning.

European markets saw a modest increase, driven by gains in mining stocks amid hopes for rate cuts. Copper prices reached a near-six-week high, contributing to a 0.9% rise in mining stocks. The automotive sector also performed well, with a 0.96% gain. However, not all sectors shared in the positive momentum, as retail stocks traded in negative territory. Additionally, the final reading of the second-quarter gross domestic product showed a 0.1% decline from the previous quarter, aligning with preliminary estimates.

Asia-Pacific markets experienced a downturn, mirroring the overnight declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Despite this, China reported a positive economic indicator with industrial profits rising by 3.6% year-on-year from January to July. Meanwhile, the Middle East tensions contributed to a surge in oil prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude saw a significant increase of 3.5%, closing at $77.42 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 3.05% to $81.43 per barrel, marking its highest level in approximately two weeks.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday before the bell include AMWD, BNS, HAIN, & SCSC. After the bell include AMBA, BOX, NCNO, JWN, PVH, SMTC, S, & MDRX.

News & Technicals’

Amazon aggregators Branded and Heyday are set to merge this week, forming a new entity named “Essor,” as confirmed by CNBC. This merger comes at a challenging time for Amazon aggregator space, which has struggled since the flow of venture capital funding diminished. Many companies in this sector have faced difficulties in profitably managing the brands they acquired, making this consolidation a strategic move to potentially stabilize and strengthen their operations.

Big Tech companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are pouring billions into data center infrastructure to bolster generative AI capabilities. However, this rapid expansion has significantly increased energy demands. In response, Sustainable Metal Cloud has introduced an immersion cooling technology that is 28% cheaper to install compared to other liquid-based solutions and can reduce energy consumption by up to 50%. According to Tim Rosenfield, co-founder and co-CEO of Sustainable Metal Cloud, this technology supports high-density GPU hosting, which is essential for platforms like Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell.

Rein believes that the panic surrounding PDD Holdings’ recent performance was exaggerated and sees the current situation as a buying opportunity for investors. This perspective follows a significant drop in PDD Holdings’ shares, which plummeted 28.57% on Monday—their largest single-day loss since the company’s Nasdaq listing. The sharp decline was triggered by the company’s failure to meet expectations in its second-quarter results.

Apple announced on Monday that it will appoint Kevan Parekh, currently the vice president of financial planning and analysis, as the new Chief Financial Officer effective January 1. Luca Maestri, who has served as Apple’s CFO since 2014, will transition to leading teams focused on IT, security, and real estate development. This leadership change marks a significant shift within Apple’s executive team as the company continues to evolve its strategic priorities.

While the Dow reached out and closed at a new record high the price patterns left behind on the charts suggests a little caution may be in order.  That said, we could see a market just resting and waiting for the highly anticipated report from NVDA after the bell on Wednesday. Expect just about anything as this tech behemoth reports amid all the AI hype the market continues to generate.   

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stock futures edged slightly higher on Thursday as investors anticipated upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the week. The positive sentiment was reflected in the performance of major indices, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each marking their ninth winning session out of the last ten. The S&P 500’s recent gains brought it to within less than 1% of its all-time closing high.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index saw an overall increase, with most sectors showing positive performance. Retail stocks led the gains with a 1.36% rise, while mining stocks experienced a slight decline of 0.69%. Fresh purchasing managers index data indicated robust business activity in both the U.K. and the euro zone for August. Among individual stocks, Swiss Re’s shares climbed by 3.11%, whereas Aegon shares dropped by 5.71% following the announcement of a net loss of 65 million euros.

Asia-Pacific markets experienced a positive trend on Thursday, driven by investor reactions to business activity data from Australia and Japan. The anticipation of PMI numbers from India also played a role in market movements. In South Korea, the Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations. This decision, coupled with the business activity data, contributed to the overall optimistic sentiment in the region.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include AAP, BILI, BJ, CSIQ, LANC, PTON, TD, VIK, & WB. After the bell include ALC, BILL, CAVA, INTU, ROST, WDAY.

News & Technicals’

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) halted their rail networks across the country on Thursday, locking out nearly 10,000 workers following unsuccessful negotiations with a major labor union. This decision, confirmed by the Teamsters union, paves the way for an unprecedented rail stoppage that could severely impact the Canadian economy and significantly affect cross-border trade with the United States. The shutdown underscores the critical role of rail transport in both national and international commerce, highlighting the potential economic repercussions of prolonged labor disputes.

In 2024, the phenomenon of “ghost jobs” has become increasingly prevalent, with four out of ten companies posting fake job listings and three out of ten currently advertising for non-existent roles. This trend highlights a significant shift in hiring practices over the past five years. According to Revelio Labs, a U.S.-based workforce intelligence company, the rate of hires per job posting has dramatically decreased. In 2019, there were eight hires for every ten job postings, but by 2024, this number had dropped to just four hires per ten job postings.

China’s state media and foreign ministry swiftly criticized Washington following a New York Times report that U.S. President Joe Biden had adjusted the U.S. nuclear strategic plan to address Beijing’s rapid nuclear arsenal expansion. Despite these claims, the White House clarified that the strategic plan was not aimed at any specific country or threat. This development has heightened tensions between the two nations, reflecting the ongoing complexities in U.S.-China relations.

In a recent interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer, Snowflake CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy addressed the cyber-attack the company experienced earlier this year, emphasizing that it has not impacted their business operations. Ramaswamy reassured that the headlines surrounding the incident have not affected their core business with either existing or new customers. He highlighted that while discussions about security have increased to ensure customer safety, the core Snowflake platform remains robust and secure. This confidence underscores Snowflake’s commitment to maintaining high security standards and customer trust.

After the 818,000 jobs revision, the highly anticipated upcoming remarks from Jerome Powell at 10AM eastern Friday, likely makes today a hurry up wait day filled with choppy price action. That said we will have to pay attention to the jobless claims number as the market may have some sensitivity to it due the huge revision yesterday. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stock futures remained relatively stable, waiting for the FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, hoping for clues about a potential interest rate cut. However, the day’s most significant release in the U.S. was a set of revisions to job figures for the year through March, which could reveal the loss of up to a million positions. This report is expected to heavily influence the tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, potentially impacting market sentiment and future economic policies.

European stock markets saw a cautious rebound after ending a long winning streak the previous day. In the U.K., public sector net borrowing increased to £3.1 billion ($4.037 billion) in July, a significant rise of £1.8 billion compared to the same month last year, according to the Office for National Statistics. Alex Kerr, a U.K. economist at Capital Economics, noted that this increase “continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position,” highlighting ongoing concerns about the country’s financial health.

In July, Japan experienced a notable increase in trade activity, with exports rising by 10.3% year-on-year and imports growing by 16.6%. These figures fell short of expectations, which had forecasted an 11.4% rise in exports and a 14.9% growth in imports. This period marked the final month of trade data before the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates at the end of July, a move that significantly strengthened the yen.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday before the bell include ADI, DY, M, TGT, & TJX. After the bell include A, NDSN, SNOW, SQM, SNPS, URBN, WOLF, & ZM.

News & Technicals’

Target surpassed Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations, driven by increased shopper visits to both its physical stores and website. The retailer saw a boost in sales of discretionary items such as clothing. Despite this positive performance, Target adopted a cautious outlook, forecasting that comparable sales for the full year would fall within the lower range of its guidance. This tempered optimism reflects the company’s awareness of potential economic uncertainties ahead.

China’s steel rebar prices have dropped over 20% year-to-date, now standing at 3,208 Chinese yuan ($450) per ton, according to data from financial information provider Wind. This decline reflects a broader trend of disappointing demand for metals in China, as noted by Sarbin Chowdhury, head of commodities analysis at BMI. Additionally, the price of iron ore, a crucial material for steel production, has plummeted by more than 28% so far this year, based on FactSet data. These trends highlight significant challenges in the Chinese metals market.

A federal judge in Texas has struck down a Biden administration rule that aimed to ban worker noncompete agreements. On Tuesday, the judge barred the U.S. Federal Trade Commission’s rule from taking effect, which would have prohibited agreements preventing workers from joining their employers’ rivals or starting competing businesses. In her ruling, Judge Brown stated that even if the FTC had the authority to implement such a rule, the agency had not sufficiently justified the need to ban nearly all noncompete agreements. This decision marks a significant setback for the administration’s efforts to regulate employment practices.

On Wednesday, Ukraine launched one of its largest-ever drone attacks against Moscow, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed the scale of the attack in a Google-translated Telegram post, stating, “This is one of the largest attempts to attack Moscow with drones ever. We continue to monitor the situation.” The drone offensive coincided with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first visit to Chechnya in 13 years, where he inspected local troops and volunteers preparing to join the war effort. This timing underscores the heightened tensions and ongoing strategic maneuvers in the region.

Although there is an anticipation for the FOMC minutes this afternoon keep a close eye out for the BLS revisions at 10AM Eastern today.  According to Goldman and Wells Fargo we could see 600,000 to 1 million jobs suddenly vanish in the report.  The majority of traders could be caught off guard creating the possibility of a big reversal depending on the report results.  It may turn out to be a nonevent but its better to be prepared. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

U.S. stock futures remained flat on Tuesday morning following the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite achieving their longest winning streaks of 2024. Investors are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Friday. Wall Street is eagerly anticipating his remarks, hoping for insights into the Federal Reserve’s plans for the upcoming September meeting

European stocks edged higher amid ongoing market uncertainty regarding potential interest rate cuts. The Riksbank in Sweden reduced its interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them down to 3.50% from 3.75%, and indicated the possibility of two to three additional rate cuts within the year. Key economic data releases in Europe on Tuesday include Germany’s producer price index and the EU’s final year-on-year inflation rate, which are likely to influence market sentiment further.

China’s central bank has decided to maintain its one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively, aligning with market expectations. This decision reflects a steady approach to monetary policy amid current economic conditions. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting minutes indicate that a rate cut in the near future is considered “unlikely,” suggesting a cautious stance on altering interest rates.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday before the bell include AS, KC, LOW, MDT, PINC, & VIPS. After the bell include COTY, KEYS, LZB, TOL, & ZTO.

News & Technicals’

Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines are one step closer to finalizing their deal after the Justice Department’s investigation period ended on Tuesday without any legal action to block it. However, the completion of the deal still hinges on approval from the U.S. Transportation Department. The timeline for this approval process remains uncertain, leaving both airlines in a state of anticipation as they await the final green light to proceed.

Following Palo Alto Networks’ earnings beat on Monday, CEO Nikesh Arora discussed the company’s “platformization” strategy with CNBC’s Jim Cramer. Arora emphasized that this approach, which involves bundling the company’s products and services, is crucial for the long-term success of the cybersecurity firm. By integrating various offerings into a cohesive platform, Palo Alto Networks aims to enhance its value proposition and streamline solutions for its clients, positioning itself strongly in the competitive cybersecurity market.

Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, marking her first significant initiative to increase revenues for financing her ambitious plans as president. Harris argues that this measure would ensure that billionaires and large corporations contribute their fair share to the economy. By targeting higher corporate taxes, she aims to generate the necessary funds to support various expensive programs and initiatives she envisions for the country’s future.

China’s youth unemployment rate surged to over 17% in July, marking the highest level since the new record-keeping system was implemented in December, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This represents a significant increase from 13.2% in June. Additionally, the urban unemployment rate across all age groups rose slightly to 5.2% in July, up from 5% in June. These figures, released on Thursday, highlight growing challenges in the job market, particularly for young people.

The buying enthusiasm continued Monday as the SPY and QQQ enjoyed the longest winning streaks in 2024.  However, it would be wise to raise stops and watch for clues that this parabolic relief rally finds some profit takers at this elevation.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Traders are beginning the week with caution, following a period of renewed risk appetite last week. The market’s focus is now on potential interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The key event this week is scheduled for Friday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell is anticipated to provide new insights into the direction of U.S. monetary policy at the central bank’s Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming. This event is highly anticipated as it could offer crucial signals regarding the Fed’s future actions.

European stocks continued their positive momentum at the beginning of the new trading week, with most sectors and major bourses experiencing gains. Despite the overall upward trend, food and beverage stocks saw a slight decline of 0.15%. In contrast, mining stocks performed strongly, rising by 1.1%.

This week, traders in Asia are closely monitoring central bank announcements, including the Bank of Korea’s rate decision and the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting. In Japan, core machinery orders unexpectedly declined by 1.7% year-on-year in June, contrary to economists’ predictions of a 1.8% increase. The Nikkei 225 falling by 1.77% to close at 37,388.62, and the Topix index dropping 1.4% to end at 2,641.14. Both indexes ended their five-day winning streaks.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include EL. After the bell include FN & PANW.

News & Technicals’

Ukrainian forces have reportedly destroyed a second strategically important bridge in Russia’s Kursk region as part of their ongoing incursion. Despite the scale of this cross-border operation, which involves around 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers, Moscow has yet to deliver a significant response. According to the Wall Street Journal, the incursion began nearly two weeks ago, and Kyiv claims to have seized control of 82 settlements across an area of 1,150 square kilometers (444 square miles). This ambitious operation underscores the escalating tensions and the strategic maneuvers by Ukrainian forces in the region.

Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the likelihood of a U.S. recession, lowering it to 20% from a recent increase to 25%, which had been raised from 15%. This adjustment follows a weaker-than-expected July jobs report that initially alarmed economists at Goldman and other institutions. However, subsequent data on retail sales and jobless claims have alleviated fears, suggesting that the world’s largest economy is not imminently heading into a recession. These recent economic indicators have provided a more optimistic outlook, easing concerns about the U.S. economic trajectory.

Retail pharmacy chains like Walgreens and CVS are shifting their strategies from continuous store expansions to closing hundreds of locations across the U.S. in an effort to boost profits. This change is driven by declining reimbursement rates for prescription drugs and various challenges affecting the front of the store, including inflation and heightened competition. Despite these hurdles, these drugstores continue to play a crucial role in the U.S. health-care system, serving tens of millions of Americans. However, to maintain their relevance and profitability, they may need to reinvent their business models.

According to the Goldman CTA report there is a renewed risk appetite largely supported by billions in corporate buybacks.  There is also a massive anticipation that Jerome Powell will provide some clarity of a possible September rate cut during his Jackson Hole speech on Friday. With a light week of earnings and economic reports traders will have to stay nimble and ready for just about anything.

Trade Wisely,

Doug