Good morning everyone. Today we have several economic reports starting with the ADP jobs number and ending the Oil status report and several other in-between.  Personally, I think the Oil report has the best chance of moving the market but any surprise on jobs could also get us moving.  The question is which direction.

Without question, the market is a mess.  For an entire month, the DIA has chopped between a range of less than 3 points with a different direction almost every day.  Now we are even seeing intra-day whipsaws between the upper and lower ranges.

Chop like this dangerous and unproductive.  A wise trader is mostly sitting on the sidelines just waiting for a direction to be decided on.  Trading this mess is akin to playing in a meat grinder.  Just say no to chop!

Expect the market to really get slow and choppy after the morning rush of reacting to the news as we then go into a waiting pattern for the Friday Jobs number.  Anything is possible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Good morning everyone. The overall market continues to tighten its price range and seems to be locked into a choppy go nowhere pattern. We don’t have any economic news to speak of today that could provide a spark of directional energy but we do have 2 Fed speakers wasting oxygen.

We are beginning to see a barrage of talking heads predicting the market has nothing up upside with an equal number of those saying we are close to a cliff. The fact of the matter is these talking heads are on their knees pleading a case to please put your money in the market because they are bleeding to death this year. A report last night showed that only 16% of money makers are beating the market so far this year. Outflows from mutual funds continue to grow and even hedge funds are parking money in ETF’s just hoping to at least match the market.

Trust me on this the market will eventually pick a direction and it will have nothing to do with any of these talking heads and their predictions. Just follow the charts, my friends.

As this range continues to tighten the danger of a big move grows. The very best position today is to keep your hands in your pockets and away from your keyboard. Wait, watch and be ready when a direction shows itself.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Good morning everyone and Happy Monday!  As you make preparations for the trading day keep in mind that even though Friday was a very nice rally off of the lows, nothing really changed.  We are still trapped between 2 levels and the swift reversals we have seen lately could change everything in about half a heartbeat.

We have several data points that could move the market this morning but I think the one that will receive the most attention is the ISM number.  Last month ISM was a surprise showing a contraction in manufacturing.  Expectations for this month is a reading a 50.3 which is a weak number but that would at least be on the side of expansion.  Another reading below 50 will likely bring out the bears so watch the price action at 10AM eastern.  In fact would be a very good idea to wait on starting any new positions until we see the reaction to the ISM.

Friday is Big Kahuna with the monthly reading on employment when the Employment situation number is released.  We can expect the market to do a lot of choppy waiting around for that number as we approach mid=week.

Also keep in mind we have begun the last quarter of the year.  That means earnings will begin soon and the tension over the presidential election will continue to grow.  October could prove to be a volatile and challenging month.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Good morning everyone. It’s Friday!  Yesterday was one of those ugly whipsaw days starting out good and making us think we might actually get 3 days in a row in one direction but that dream was crushed as the market took back all of the last 2 days positive move.

Today we have a lot of potential market moving data so let’s all hope its positive enough to offset the bearishness created with the DB issues in Europe.

 Keep an eye out for possible trades today.  Have a great weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Good morning everyone.  The surprise deal announced yesterday from OPEC on cutting oil production really moved the market strongly yesterday afternoon kicking it out of the doldrums if had been for most of the day.  I don’t know about you I was really happy just to see the market go in the same direction for 2-day in the row!  Do we even dare to hope for a third?

At this moment the futures have moved to slightly bearish ahead a bunch of economic news that does have the ability to really move the market.  Let’s all join hands and chant for good reports.  LOL

Today this is again 5 Fed members out flapping their lips keeping the market at the edge of its seat.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Good morning everyone.  After the presidential debate lat night the futures popped up over 100 points but I guess sometime during the night the market realized that nothing really changed so they begin to normalize and it looks like we can expect just a slightly higher open.

Oil is lower this morning by more than $1 a barrel which could make it tough for the markets to really gain much ground.  There are a couple economic reports this morning but I think it’s unlikely they will move the market…However, we have Fed member speaking today and as you know they can create big moves if his speech is is perceived as dovish or hawkish.

The disappointing thing is our market seems to be completely dependent on the news cycle right now.  As you know the biggest moves are occurring during the pre-market and after that it just can’t seem to gather enough energy to anything other than chop.  It makes for some tough trading indeed.  If your a bit frustrated, you are not alone!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Good morning and Happy Friday everyone. This has been a long week of waiting on the Fed only to have that end with us still stuck in a tight range on the SPY and the DIA. The QQQ is at record highs and the IWM broke it’s last high but again there seems to be a lack of enthusiasm.

We have a bunch of Fed speak today so anything is possible. Make sure you have your stops and targets in place. With all that hot air being spewed who knows what could happen.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Good morning. Now that we are past all big news maybe we can get back to some trading. I would lover to say back up the truck and start loading up on stock but when you look at the overhead resistance that would be a foolish thing to do. There is no question that market looked bullish at the end of trading yesterday however it is also undeniable that resistance has been a major player in the market indexes and should not be ignored.

As with any big move, follow-through is essential and it is not required to do so immediately. We must continue to plan trade carefully and keep ourselves focused on the overall chart, not a single day.

That being said there are a lot of nice looking charts and you should expect to see some trade alerts coming out today.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Good morning. It’s Yellen day and without question, it is going to be a tough day to trade. The BOJ did just enough to keep the bears from showing their teeth this morning but let’s keep in mind the market has now gapped up 4 days in a row only to sell off the rest of the day. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, Shame on Me!

At 10:30 eastern time will get oil numbers and that has proven to move the market in the past. At 2 PM we will finally hear from the Fed with the press conference at 2:30. Expect some very wild price action right after the news with some very big whipsaws in just a few minutes.

I will likely sit on my hands most of the day if not all. Trading the news is the domain of the big boys so it’s better to stand aside and let them duke it out. We will enter after it calms down and a directional decision has been made.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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